future problem solving international 2023

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Future of International Cooperation Report 2023

Building shared futures: innovating governance for global and regional problem-solving, by  richard ponzio  •  nudhara yusuf  •  freddie mallinson  •  shahrukh mohammed, international & regional organizations.

• September 12, 2023

Although profound crises confront the world, humanity has also never had such an abundance of knowledge, resources, or technological means to effectively tackle international problems through collective action. Against this backdrop, the Future of International Cooperation Report 2023 (FIC’23) seeks to facilitate deeper collaboration between governments, civil society, religious leaders, the media, the business community, and international organizations to help present and future generations realize their full potential. It focuses on what the institutions and practice of global and regional cooperation need to keep pace with disruptive trends in cyber technology and the destructive challenges of persistent conflict. It shows how carefully designed and responsible initiatives in cyber-governance, including the regulation of artificial intelligence, and in reinvigorated peacebuilding can benefit peoples and nations and influence the outcomes of the Sustainable Development Goals Summit this September and the Summit of the Future in September 2024. Humanity has no time to lose in revitalizing global and regional problem-solving in these and other critical issues through principled and future-focused international cooperation.

Executive Summary

“Rarely are opportunities presented to you in a perfect way. In a nice little box with a yellow bow on top. ‘Here, open it, it’s perfect. You’ll love it.’ Opportunities–the good ones–are messy, confusing and hard to recognize. They’re risky. They challenge you.” —Susan Wojcicki, Chief Executive Officer of YouTube. 1 Wojcicki, Johns Hopkins University Commencement Speech , 2014.

Under the banner of “Diplomacy, Dialogue, and Diversity,” the Doha Forum has promoted for more than two decades a spirited and open interchange of ideas to innovate and improve international policy-making that drives action-oriented networks. Through this Future of International Cooperation Report 2023 (FIC’23), the Doha Forum, Stimson Center, and Global Institute for Strategic Research seek to better inform forum participants and concerned citizens worldwide, by addressing vital dimensions of global and regional cooperation alongside concrete recommendations for strengthening collective action in meeting major challenges, threats, and opportunities of the present era. Effective and legitimate action requires the participation of governments, civil society, religious leaders, the media, the business community, and international organizations, both global and regional.

Two major areas much in need of effective collective action are cyber-technology , including artificial intelligence (AI) , and peacebuilding . AI and other cyber-tech present powerful tools for global and regional problem-solving, but they pose equally serious challenges, including the potential for unfettered competitive action that may lead to a “tragedy of the commons” for all. With more violent conflicts underway now than at any time since the Second World War, the need to build just and sustainable peace has never been more urgent, but present peacebuilding tools seem less effective than ever.

With a special focus on “Building Shared Futures,” this report demonstrates how carefully designed and responsible initiatives in these two critical areas can contribute to positive outcomes at the intergovernmental and multistakeholder Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) Summit this September and the Summit of the Future (SOTF) in September 2024. In part to strengthen the linkages between the SDG Summit and the SOTF, three fundamental principles must anchor the responsible scaling-up and basic functioning of AI and other cyber technologies, namely: safety , sustainability , and inclusion . For effective peacebuilding to perform a similar role, upholding the five principles of addressing the root causes of violent conflict , local capacity development , just and meaningful inclusion , accountability and transparency , and solidarity and social justice are essential too.

“…[We] seek to better inform…concerned citizens worldwide, by addressing key dimensions of global and regional cooperation…”

With an eye toward making artificial intelligence, cyber-governance, and peacebuilding accessible and beneficial to present and future generations in all countries by reflecting these core principles, among the report’s chief recommendations are:

AI & Cyber-Governance Innovations for Global and Regional Problem-Solving

Establish an international artificial intelligence agency:.

The agency would serve to: i) improve visibility, advocacy, and resource mobilization for global AI regulatory efforts; ii) provide thought leadership on General Assembly and Security Council AI and cyber technology-related initiatives and agreements; iii) monitor, evaluate, and report on AI industry safeguards in compliance with an agreed international regulatory framework; iv) enhance coordination across Member States and regional bodies to leverage AI’s positive development applications; and v) coordinate transnationally across initiatives and frameworks on AI governance to support knowledge-sharing of best practices and lessons learnt. The Agency should be supported by an expert Intergovernmental Cyber and AI Panel, modeled on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Require Digital Advocates as Integral to a New Treaty on Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems:

Today’s soldiers are educated on the rules of war, inculcating international humanitarian law (IHL) to minimize the human cost of armed conflict. This report calls for digital advocates as a mandatory component of the software governing autonomous weapons. When humans relinquish decision-making power to machines, they have an obligation to equip them with IHL principles to reduce unnecessary suffering, especially if a weapons system is programmed to continue a mission after it loses contact with its controllers. States may be unwilling to part with the source code of their weapons, but sharing information on digital advocates could provide an avenue for greater transparency, trust, and norm proliferation.

Harness the Global Digital Compact as an integrated SDG (iSDG) on Technology:

Coordination across existing SDG targets concerning technology and filling in gaps where targets were not identified in 2015, such as the positive use of AI, will position the Global Digital Compact as an accelerator of the wider 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Leveraging the Compact in this way underscores the social contract that guides international cooperation and collective responsibility in bridging the digital divide, sharing risks and benefits to encourage greater investment in digital access, and enhancing technology’s value as a global public good.

Peacebuilding Innovations for Global and Regional Problem-Solving

Advance the next generation women & youth peace & security (wps and yps) agendas:.

Cultural stereotypes and barriers to participation in policy development, decision-making, and implementation for women and youth can be addressed through awareness campaigns, internal UN system-level accountability frameworks, and education, as well as logistical and financial support, that together equip women and youth as peacebuilders. Additionally, the UN system, alongside regional bodies such as SAARC, ASEAN, the GCC, and the AU, should work with national counterparts on robust WPS and YPS National Action Plan monitoring and evaluation mechanisms to track, for instance, gender-based violence and gender equality in areas affected by conflict.

Transform the Peacebuilding Commission into an Empowered Council for Sustaining Peace:

With an expanded mandate, the Peacebuilding Council would have enhanced powers and responsibilities to lead on conflict prevention (including through a new Peacebuilding Audit tool) and peacebuilding policy development, coordination, and resource mobilization on critical second- and third-order conflicts, freeing up the Security Council to concentrate on first-order conflicts that most threaten international peace and security. In addition, a reinvigorated focus on prevention calls for adequate, predictable, and sustained funding of the Peacebuilding Fund, including from assessed dues, thereby strengthening the world body’s core mission of sustaining peace.

“…artificial intelligence…and peacebuilding wield immense potential for revolutionizing how diverse state and non-state actors can…grapple with some of the most complex issues at the heart of the SDG Summit and SOTF Action Agendas.”

Offer Greater Details (and Ambition) to Collective Security Architecture Reform Proposals:

As a contribution to next year’s Summit of the Future, UN Secretary-General António Guterres’ New Agenda for Peace speaks briefly to ideas for improving the Security Council, General Assembly, and Peacebuilding Commission—but given present gaps in international governance, there is room for going further. For example, the number of non-permanent seats on the Council should be expanded by six, while allowing for the immediate re-election of non-permanent members, through an appropriate amendment of UN Charter Article 23. The Secretary-General should also lend his support to more frequent use of the Uniting for Peace resolution when the UNSC fails to act in critical matters of international peace and security.

The Future is Now: Advancing the SDG Summit and Summit of the Future Action Agendas

Next year’s Summit of the Future is designed to realize—through well-conceived, politically acceptable, and adequately resourced reform proposals—the international systemic changes needed to fill the global governance systems gaps identified in the Political Declaration of the SDG Summit. The SOTF’s “Pact for the Future” and associated instruments (including a Global Digital Compact, New Agenda for Peace, and Declaration on Future Generations) are poised to take forward the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, and wider UN agenda, including in the areas of economic governance and debt relief, science and technology, peace and security, human rights, and the special needs of younger and future generations.

As elaborated in the FIC’23 report, artificial intelligence, cyber-governance, and reinvigorated peacebuilding wield immense potential for revolutionizing how diverse state and non-state actors can jointly and creatively grapple with some of the most complex issues at the heart of the SDG Summit and SOTF Action Agendas. With courage and imagination that fully employs these tools, our leaders can yet pull humanity back from the brink of overlapping crises and emerging shocks—including potential mass displacement from sea-level rise, recurring health crises, and the outbreak of deadly armed conflicts—toward a path of solidarity, peace, and shared prosperity.  We have no time to lose in revitalizing global and regional problem-solving through principled and future-focused international cooperation.

• 1 Wojcicki, Johns Hopkins University Commencement Speech , 2014.

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FUTURE PROBLEM SOLVING

Competition for 21st Century Learning Skills

Future Problem Solving Program International is celebrating 50 Years!

The year long celebration will culminate with the Future Problem Solving International Conference June 5-9, 2024 at the University of Indiana Bloomington.

Kentucky teams who place at our State Finals in March may earn an invitation to the International Competition to represent Kentucky on the world stage.

Kentucky has been a part of Future Problem Solving since 1988 with multiple top 10 finishes at the International Competition.

Kentucky: One of the International Leaders in FPS

Future Problem Solving (FPS) helps students obtain lifelong goals by teaching problem solving skills today. The diverse components of this internationally recognized, award-winning program prepare students for emerging new realities.

The Institute for Competition Sciences has recognized KAAC as the number one FPS affiliate in the world.

KAAC offers FPS through Governor's Cup Team FPS and FPS Component Events .

What is FPS?

Through academic competition, students apply critical thinking, advanced problem solving, and decision making skills to hypothetical future scenarios using the following FPS Six-Step Process:

• Step 1: Identify potential challenges or concerns from the Future Scene.
• Step 2: Identify a singular underlying problem.
• Step 3: Identify potential solutions to the underlying problem.
• Step 4: Develop criteria to judge potential solutions and their positive impact.
• Step 5: Evaluate and rank the potential solutions using criteria to rank solutions in order of importance.
• Step 6: Develop a complete action plan based on the highest-ranking solution.

Component Events

• Community Problem Solving (CmPS) - An individual or team of students work to identify a problem that exists in their school, community, state, or nation. Participants utilize the Six-Step Process to examine this area of concern, then develop and implement real-world projects to address these problems.
• Scenario Writing - Individual students write 1500-word stories related to one of the five yearly FPS topics. Each fictional story must be set at least 20 years in the future and outline logical events taking place in the world.
• Scenario Performance - Individual students develop and deliver oral stories related to one of the five yearly FPS topics. Each oral story is set 20 years in the future and should be told in a natural and spontaneous nature that is creative and entertaining to an audience.
• Junior Division FPS - A team of four students in grades 4-6 may participate in the Junior Division of FPS.
• Individual FPS - Individual students work through the FPS Six-Step Process and have two hours to complete a booklet. Individuals generate eight challenges in Step 1 and eight potential solutions in Step 3. The other steps are the same as the team competition.
• FPS Alternates -The FPS Alternates competition is for students who are part of a team that qualified for the State Finals, but are not actually competing in Governor’s Cup team FPS. The FPS Team Alternates Competition is held at the Governor’s Cup State Finals. It is NOT part of Governor’s Cup. Each FPS Alternates Team will consist of not more than four students from different schools who work through the FPS process. Each team generates 8 challenges in Step 1, and 8 solution ideas in Step 3. Step 2, Step 4, Step 5 and Step 6 are exactly the same as the team competition. Participants have 90 minutes to complete a booklet.

Don’t let your FPS questions go unanswered. We’re here to help. Give us a call at (502) 223-0088 or email us at Chris Hill .

Missouri Future Problem Solving Program

Teaching students how to think, not what to think., about fpspi, costs and due dates, registration form, officers and directors, coaching information.

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“opening doors to the future”.

2024 I C International Conference & State Bo wl Spotlight coming soon. Here's what happened in 2023

Ranks of royalty   click on 2024 state bowl to see nc fps state champions 2024 state bowl qualifying problem    .

Click her to read winning 2023 SCENARIOS

Click her to see nc fps's  2023 cmps projects.

2023 International Conference: Currency

NC FPS students take the stage at 2023 International Conference...

1st place GIPS Individual Junior Division Arora

Coach Harrison

6th place GIPS Team Junior Division  Baer, E Huffstetler, L Huffstetler, Lam

5th place GIPS Individual Middle Division  Venkatesh

Coach Venkatesh

Finalist GIPS Team Middle Division

Nanduri, Patil, Sattenapalli, Unnikrishnan

Coaches Nanduri & Shyamala

Finalist FIPS Individual Senior Division Mehta

Coach Mehta

Finalist GIPS Team Senior Division  Coleman, Cone, Hart, Lam

Finalist  GIPS Team Senior Division E  Nethala, E Nethala, Sureshkannan, Varikuti

Coaches Vanipalli & Venkatesh

4th Place Presentation of Action Plan Senior Division  Coleman, Cone, Hart, Lam

MAGIC = Multi-Affiliate Global Issues Competition

1st place MAGIC Ju nior  Division Jangala

Coach Jangala

2nd place MAGIC* Junior  Division Sharma

1st place MAGIC* Middle  Division Sakhalkar

Coach Sureshkannan & Vanapalli

4th place MAGIC Middle Division Samatam

1st place MAGIC* Senior Division Vanapalli

Coach Nanduri & Shyamala

​ Finalist CmPS Team Junior  Division Positive Pollinators

5th place Junior Division Scenario Zhang

Coaches Sureshkannan & Vana palli

 23-24 TOPICS RESEARCH PP1  Tourism PP2  Urbanization QP   Antarctica SB   Autonomous  Transportation IC Air Quality

TO FIND THE BEST SOLUTIONS, YOU MUST ASK THE RIGHT QUESTIONS.

Plan ahead  2024 NC FPS State Bowl YMCA Blue Ridge Assembly Friday, March 15 through Sunday, March 1 7   Black  Mountain , North Carolina TOPIC: Autonomous Transportation

Registration for new 24-25 teams & individuals in all components available in september. click here to learn more..

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Future Problem Solving (FPS ) is a terrific way to create more creative students and improve a youngster's oral and written communication, research, and teamwork skills. FPS challenges students to apply information they have learned to some of the most complex issues facing society. Students are asked to think, to make decisions and, in some cases, to carry out their solutions. FPS is a yearlong program, open to students in grades 4-12, in which teams of four students learn a six-step problem solving process which they can then use to solve social and scientific problems set in the future. At regular intervals, the teams submit their work online to evaluators, who review it and return it with suggestions for improvement. Teams participating in the competitive aspect of the program will complete the third problem at a Qualifying Bowl in February. The top teams in the state are invited to the State Bowl in March, where they compete for the opportunity to represent Massachusetts at the International FPS Conference. Most schools participate in the team competition. Teachers can also incorporate the FPS process into curriculum units in the classroom, or participate in the Community Problem Solving, Scenario Writing or Scenario Performance components of the program. We invite you to learn more about the program by watching the video below or by contacting one of our Co-Affilaite Directors:

Bob Cattel, Co-Affiliate Director Email: [email protected] Phone (617) 834-4743 Renée Hanscom, Co-Affiliate Director Email: [email protected] Phone: (781) 799-4826

For more infromation about Future Problem Solving Program International in Melbourne Florida, contact April Michele at (321) 768-0074 or check out their website www.fpspi.org

To purchase Resources/Tools and yearly Program Materials related to the Future Problem Solving Program International go to www.fpspimart.org .

2023-24 MassFPS Calendar

Schedule of events, 2023-2024 fps topics, practice problem #1:  tourism.

Tourism not only benefits host locales but those on holiday. Travel enriches their lives, expands their understanding of people and cultures, while also serving as a respite from daily life. The economic stability of such destinations depends on the sustainability of their tourist trade. As the popularity of such destinations grows, international corporations and developers typically flock to these growing places, trying to capitalize on the financial possibilities. There is money to be made in building hotels, restaurants, and in developing an area’s growing tourism industry. As outside groups seek to attract tourists and the revenue they generate, locals often struggle to maintain their location's unique appeal and ability to support local venues. As this build-up occurs, local people can have their cultures exploited, lands destroyed, and their local businesses put in jeopardy. As the tourism sector grows and expands, we are seeing the expansion of the Special Interest (SIT) market - tourists wishing to match their vacations with their interests (e.g., ecotourism, wellness tourism, event tourism, ancestry tourism, etc.) How will changing forms and trends of tourism impact tourists and hosts alike? How can the advantages of expanding tourism be balanced with the protection of destinations?

Practice Problem #2:  Urbanization

Today nearly half the world's population lives in an urban area. By 2050, that number is expected to reach 70% due to this increase in Urbanization. Urban areas and their large populations often hold power over governance, economic development, and international connectivity beyond their immediate regions. With proper planning, urban centers can provide educational and economic opportunities to residents not found elsewhere. However, they can also easily give rise to slums and increase income inequality. With growing footprints, cities are also struggling to provide basic needs, essential services, and safety. Future urban planners must address tough questions: What qualities in society should be valued most? What is fair and equitable? Whose interests will be served first? Planners must balance the speed of decision-making with the need for thoughtful, well-considered programs for development. As urban areas expand, how can we develop areas that are efficient, resilient, and inclusive? Future urban planners must address tough questions: What qualities in society should be valued most? What is fair and equitable? Whose interests will be served first? Planners must balance the speed of decision-making with the need for thoughtful, well-considered programs for development. As urban areas expand, how can we develop areas that are efficient, resilient, and inclusive?

Qualifying Problem:  Antarctica

Affiliate bowl (state bowl):  autonomous transportation.

Our transport needs, desires, and realities are rapidly changing due to global growth and increased connectivity. As modes of transportation continue to evolve, increasing levels of complexity and efficiency are pursued. What role will autonomous vehicles, cars, airplanes, ships, etc., which operate without human intervention, play in this pursuit? Their development continues to increase exponentially with advancing technological capabilities. Since all scenarios are not programmable, autonomous vehicles must learn and react. They do this by surveying their environment with multiple sensors and utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) to process vast amounts of data. Autonomous vehicles can deliver on demand, refuel, park, and store themselves. By creating a network of these vehicles, entire systems of transport could become autonomous, controlled by a central AI. How will the efficiency of autonomous vehicles affect the development of transportation, on land and sea, in the air, and possibly space? How will autonomous transport cope with unexpected risk situations and ethical decisions? In what ways will autonomous transport impact jobs, industries, infrastructure, and lifestyles?

International Conference: Topic to be announced March 1, 2024

Fps programs, promoting creative and critical thinking, global issues problem solving - individual / team competition.

Global Issues Problem Solving (GIPS) is the Individual / Team competition component of the program and is open to students in grades 4-12. An Individual student or Teams of up to four students learn the six-step future problem solving process which they then apply, along with their research on specific topics, to solve social and scientific problems. With the six-step FPS process, students are presented with a "Future Scene", which is a story set at least 20 years into the future. For the first step, students brainstorm challenges that the Future Scene presents. This step helps students refine their critical and creative thinking skills. The second step has the students focus one or more challenges generated in step one down to a clearly written problem statement referred called an Underlying Problem. In step three students brainstorm solution ideas intended on solving the Underlying Problem. In steps four and five, the students generate criteria used to evaluate their step three solutions. In step six the students take the top rated solution from step five and develop a detailed action plan. Students using the six-step process develop brainstorming and focusing skills while working cooperatively and collaboratively in groups. GIPS Individuals and Teams work on two practice problems during the Fall and early Winter each year. Then in February, those students will complete a Qualifying Problem in two hours without their coach's assistance. GIPS Individuals and Teams who receive the highest evaluation for their Qualifying Problem will be invited to compete at the State Bowl in March.

The three grade level divisions are:

    • Junior Division: Grades 4-6     • Middle Division: Grades 7-9     • Senior Division: Grades 10-12

Final registration deadline: December 31, 2023

Community Problem Solving

Community Problem Solving (CmPS) individuals and teams identify a local or global problem, and work with community leaders and residents to research the problem and implement solutions. As an example, Leominster students have worked with town officials to explore the feasibility of a sludge composting plant, which would save the cost of trucking sludge to Fitchburg. Funds saved could pay for methane gas recovery from the closed landfill and other civic projects.

Deadline for submitting Project Proposal: December 31, 2023 Deadline for submitting Project Report: March 9, 2024

Scenario Writing

Scenario Writing (SW) gives students the opportunity to combine their problem solving and creative writing talents. Individual students are invited to write scenarios: short stories (maximum length 1500 words) set at least 20 years in the future and dealing with the any of the following topics (Tourism, Urbanization, Antarctica and Autonomous Transportation). For additional information, contact Joanne Bianco at [email protected] or (978) 534-0163.

Scenario Performance - For thinkers who are also Storytellers !

Scenario Performance (ScP) was designed and developed to sustain oral traditions of storytelling, Scenario Performance is ideally suited to students who prefer oral communication to showcase their creativity. In Scenario Performance, students choose the FPS annual topic that interests them to make a prediction of the future (20‐30 years from now) and perform as though the future were the present. Futuristic concepts and trends are incorporated into the story, but a specific date is not required. Scenario Performance encourages students to enlarge ideas, enrich personal style, and predict accurate images of the future. The Performance is not written out in full; it is “told,” and should be more “natural” and “spontaneous” in nature. Whether presented for the camera or in front of a live audience, Performances should be creative and entertaining. The stories do not have to be written, rather they are performed!

Fee: $30 per student entry Postmark deadline for scenario performance video: January 20, 2024 The following video is the Middle Division 1st Place Scenario Performer from last year's International Conference.

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Occupation-specific tasks and challenges are completed within a cloud-based assessment environment.

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Future Problem Solving is an exciting academic competition that empowers students with a skillset to solve the problems they face in the world today. Created by E. Paul Torrance, a creativity pioneer, in 1974, Future Problem Solving has evolved to become an international entity, including participants from more than 10 countries. Alabama Future Problem Solving is an affiliate of Future Problem Solving Program International. We would love to have you join us!

2023-2024 Topics

2022 – 2023 topics, 2020-2021 topics, 2019-2020 topics, 2018-2019 topics, philanthrocapitalism, kicking off the 2017-2018 year, 2017-2018 topics.

Washington Future Problem Solving

Future Problem Solving is typically offered as an extracurricular activity or elective course, and it is open to students of all ages and grade levels.

The program is structured around a series of competitions that challenge students to apply their creativity and problem-solving skills to real-world issues and scenarios.

Global Issues Problem Solving students are presented with a complex scenario or problem. They are asked to identify the underlying issues, generate solutions, evaluate the pros and cons of each solution, and select the best course of action.

Students work in teams (or individually) to develop their solutions and are judged on the creativity, originality, and feasibility of their ideas.

In addition to honing their problem-solving skills, Future Problem Solving  emphasizes leadership development. FPS equips students with the skills necessary to lead teams and organizations towards solutions for the problems they will face in the future.

Become an FPS Coach and help guide and support your students as they develop their problem-solving skills, teaching strategies for analysing complex issues, and helping develop leadership skills, critical thinking and creative problem-solving skills .

FPS hosts Coach Catch-ups in terms 1 and 2, providing an opportunity for coaches to share information, ideas, and best practices and provide a forum for coaches to discuss common challenges and in coaching students.

Students involved in GIPS learn & practice powerful problem-solving skills that engage their critical and creative thinking.

A stand out project-based program for schools.  Students select a real world problem, identify a solution, and then actively implement their action plan to address the problem.

A Scenario Writing competition in which students develop and submit short stories. Students compete individually, developing short stories related to one of five FPSP topics for the year.

An oral storytelling activity for individual students offering the opportunity to develop creative and entertaining, short, futuristic stories related to one of five FPSP topics.

A non-competitive problem-solving program designed for implementation in the regular classroom Foundational Skills (Prep-2); Developing Skills (Grades 3-4)

Dylan Sherman, FPS Australia Alumni, now Coach, Evaluator, Future Scene Writer, Committee Member, Lecturer and PhD Candidate at University of Oxford

Meganne Wyatt, FPS Australia Alumni, Evaluator

Future Problem Solving Australia acknowledges the traditional owners of this land. We recognise their continuing connection to land, waters and community. We pay our respects to Elders past and present.

Global Economics Intelligence executive summary, April 2023

Inflation continues to moderate in multiple regions and countries but remains high, and central banks look set to maintain a path of interest rate interventions. However, interest rates and sentiment are weighing on growth projections and the picture is somewhat patchy, with growth in some emerging economies such as China and India outpacing developed economies. In developed economies, the United States saw the Federal Reserve revise down its latest economic growth projections for 2023 and 2024 to 0.4% and 1.2%, respectively. In Europe, the International Monetary Fund has reconfirmed previous projections for 2022’s growth rate at 3.5% but revised up its 2023 outlook by 0.1 percentage point, a less optimistic view (at 0.2 percentage points lower) than the European Central Bank’s March figures (Exhibits 1 and 2).

Interest rate rises have also resulted in volatility in the banking sector. Rising rates have seen existing holdings of government bonds fall in value, leaving smaller banks especially vulnerable as the value of their assets drops, potentially generating losses when they have to sell these securities. In March, swift action by banking authorities and the wider banking sector prevented potential contagion across the global banking system following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank in the United States, and the distressed sale of Credit Suisse in Europe.

However, ratings agencies also downgraded the credit rating of a third medium-size bank, San Francisco-based First Republic, citing a surfeit of uninsured deposits. In April, fears of a resurgence in banking turmoil were reignited as shares in the bank, known for catering to high-net-worth individuals, lost more than half their value on news that customers had pulled more than $100 billion in deposits. Customers with large balances were concerned their funds would not be covered in full by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. First Republic was taken over by JPMorgan Chase on May 1 and banking sector shares remain volatile.

Would you like to learn more about the McKinsey Global Institute ?

This volatility in the banking sector is likely one of the factors to have affected wider economic sentiment. McKinsey’s latest snapshot of global economic conditions  surveyed executives twice in March: immediately before the upheavals in the banking sector, starting with the closure of SVB, and then again three weeks later. In early March, respondents were more positive than they had been in several quarters: 40% said that global economic conditions had improved in the previous six months, the first time in a year that respondents were more likely to report improvements than declines. And 45% said that they expected global conditions to improve in the months ahead, while only 28% predicted that conditions would worsen. However, by the end of the month, that optimism had fallen away. Respondents were much less positive than they were in early March about current global conditions and the global economy’s prospects—though they were still more upbeat than they had been in the previous quarter (Exhibit 3).

Notable from the full report

In advanced economies, US inflation edged down, in part due to energy prices. On May 3, as anticipated, the Fed raised rates to a target range of 5.0–5.25%. Eurozone inflation slowed to 6.9% in March (8.5% in February), and the ECB estimates inflation will reach 2.8% by the end of 2023.

United States. Inflation edged down to 5.0%, with energy prices contributing to this decline. The Fed continued with a rate rise in May. At the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held March 21–22, 2023, participants’ median projections for GDP growth were 0.4% and 1.2% for 2023 and 2024, respectively—down from December’s projection of 0.5% and 1.6%. Members of Congress proposed new legislation—the Limit, Save, Grow Act—that would set discretionary spending levels for the coming year at fiscal year 2022 levels and limit spending growth to no more than 1% per year.

Eurozone. The latest IMF projections are less optimistic than the ECB’s. Inflation slows where energy prices declined, although food prices remain high; the eurozone reports a trade surplus. The figures mask the usual eurozone heterogeneity: while Spain saw its 2023 growth rate improving from 1.1% to 1.5%, Germany entered negative territory, with an expected decline of 0.1%. France and Italy kept their rates of 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively.

United Kingdom. Inflation decreased by less than expected in March, to 10.1%. The labor market remains tight but shows signs of easing. Spring forecasts estimated a mild recession in 2023, followed by a moderate rebound in 2024. The United Kingdom is only one of two G7 countries predicted by the IMF to contract in 2023. However, at its May 11 policy meeting, the Bank of England upgraded its growth estimate, saying it no longer expects the United Kingdom to enter into recession in 2023. Meanwhile, on May 12, the Office for National Statistics said the UK economy grew by 0.1% in the first quarter of 2023.

In emerging economies, China’s growth has accelerated since the economy fully opened from its “zero-COVID-19” policies, while India is predicted to be the fastest-growing major economy in the world in 2023; inflation in emerging markets eased, especially in Brazil (exhibit).

China. China’s economy had a strong start in Q1 2023. GDP growth accelerated to 4.5%, above market estimates; fixed-asset investment, housing sales, and new social financing expanded faster, compared with Q4 2022; however, trade remained weak in Q1 2023. In the first quarter of 2023, China’s GDP reported a stronger-than-expected growth rate of 4.5% year over year (2.9% in Q4 2022), with 67% of growth driven by consumption. GDP growth in the services sector accelerated to 5.4% year over year (2.3% in Q4 2022), while GDP growth in the agriculture and industry sectors stabilized at 3.7% and 3.3% year over year (4.0% and 3.4% in Q4 2022), respectively.

India. Despite earlier real GDP forecasts being downgraded, India is set to be among the fastest-growing major economies in the world, contributing some 15% of global growth. Demand conditions in India remain sanguine, with urban consumption rising and rural demand indicators improving. The Reserve Bank of India revised its real GDP projections for 2022–23 to 6.5%, well above the IMF’s updated projection of 5.9%.

Brazil. Inflation continues its downward trajectory; Lula da Silva completes his first 100 days as president but faces important challenges ahead. Consumer sentiment in relation to both the current and future economic situation improved, with consumer confidence increasing to 87 in March (up from 84.5 in February). However, the index remains below the 100-point threshold, indicating that Brazilian consumers are still pessimistic.

Russia. Russia’s 2022 GDP slump has been driven by domestic consumption and net trade, with late 2022 and early 2023 marked by stagnation. The 2023 outlook depends on government support and trade, as domestic demand remains weak; inflation fell sharply below 4% on an annual basis. Detailed 2022 GDP data confirm that Russian GDP declined by 2.1%, with household consumption and net trade weighing on growth. However, fixed investments and government spending helped avoid a deeper slump.

McKinsey’s Global Economics Intelligence (GEI) provides macroeconomic data and analysis of the world economy. Each monthly release includes an executive summary on global critical trends and risks, as well as focused insights on the latest national and regional developments. View the full report for April 2023 here . Detailed visualized data for the global economy, with focused reports on selected individual economies, are also provided as PDF downloads on McKinsey.com. The report is available free to email subscribers and through the McKinsey Insights App . To add a name to our subscriber list, click here . GEI is a joint project of McKinsey’s Strategy and Corporate Finance Practice  and the McKinsey Global Institute .

The data and analysis in McKinsey’s Global Economics Intelligence are developed by Jeffrey Condon, a senior expert in McKinsey’s Atlanta office; Krzysztof Kwiatkowski,  an expert at the Waltham Client Capability Hub; and Sven Smit , a senior partner in the Amsterdam office.

The authors wish to thank Nick de Cent, as well as José Álvares, Fiorella Correa, Juhi Daga, Darien Ghersinich, Pragun Harjai, Ricardo Huapaya, Yifei Liu, Marianthi Marouli, Tomasz Mataczynski, Frances Matamoros, Erik Rong, Paula Trejos, and Sebastian Vargas for their contributions to this article.

The invasion of Ukraine continues to have deep human, as well as social and economic, impact across countries and sectors. The implications of the invasion are rapidly evolving and are inherently uncertain. As a result, this document, and the data and analysis it sets out, should be treated as a best-efforts perspective at a specific point of time, which seeks to help inform discussion and decisions taken by leaders of relevant organizations. The document does not set out economic or geopolitical forecasts and should not be treated as doing so. It also does not provide legal analysis, including but not limited to legal advice on sanctions or export control issues.

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