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Peer-reviewed

Research Article

Multi-stakeholder perspective of courier service quality in B2C e-commerce

Roles Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Funding acquisition, Investigation, Methodology, Project administration, Resources, Software, Supervision, Validation, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

* E-mail: [email protected]

Affiliation Faculty of Engineering Management, Bialystok University of Technology, Bialystok, Poland

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  • Aleksandra Gulc

PLOS

  • Published: May 21, 2021
  • https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0251728
  • Reader Comments

Table 1

Under conditions of the rapidly developing e-commerce sector especially during pandemic, ensuring high quality of courier service is essential both for clients, as well as courier companies. However, the literature lacks research linking the perspective of clients and organization in the context of courier service quality. The study aims to identify the factors determining courier service quality, their functions and interrelationships in business-to-customer (B2C) e-commerce. The main effect of research is the relational model, which is an original and complex approach to courier service quality considering the multi-stakeholder perspective of an online shop, a courier company and an e-customer. Apart from scientific contribution, the model can be used into managerial practice to formulate the recommendations for e-commerce and courier service sector. The research process involved using the quantitative method (electronic surveys conducted among e-shops and e-clients) and the qualitative method (in-depth-interviews carried out among courier enterprises). Finally, based on the empirical research results, the structural analysis was used to develop the model. As a result, the following groups of factors were distinguished that determine the quality of courier services: crucial, determinant, result, autonomous and external factors.

Citation: Gulc A (2021) Multi-stakeholder perspective of courier service quality in B2C e-commerce. PLoS ONE 16(5): e0251728. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0251728

Editor: Dejan Dragan, Univerza v Mariboru, SLOVENIA

Received: February 16, 2021; Accepted: May 3, 2021; Published: May 21, 2021

Copyright: © 2021 Aleksandra Gulc. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Data Availability: All relevant data are within the manuscript.

Funding: Research Project No. 2017/25/N/HS4/02051, National Science Centre, Poland. https://www.ncn.gov.pl/ The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Competing interests: The author has declared that no competing interests exist.

Introduction

The courier, express and parcel (CEP) market has reached impressive growth rates worldwide from the past decade. E-commerce is among the major drivers of the CEP market development generating significant revenues, especially in the last year, during the pandemic caused by a coronavirus. Physical distancing, business lockdown and other confinement measures have accelerated growing trends in e-commerce. With consumers facing pandemic-related constraints worldwide, Internet users turned to online shopping more frequently and ordered even essential goods [ 1 ]. The situation resulted in the rise of business-to-consumer (B2C) sales and affected business-to-business (B2B) e-commerce. By the end of May 2020, online orders were doubled year-on-year in North America and increased by 50% in Europe [ 2 ]. Before the pandemic, the value of the global courier market reached EUR 330.3 billion in 2019, and according to forecasts, it will reach EUR 400 billion by 2024, which means an increase of 8–10% annually in subsequent years [ 3 ]. The dynamics of the CEP market in Poland, reaching 15% annually, is one of the highest in Europe. The value of Polish courier market amounted to EUR 2,3 billion in 2020, noting the increase by 20% compared to 2019. At the same period, the volume of shipments increased by 34,9% reaching the level of 814 million parcels. Since 2015 till 2020, the number of parcels in Polish market has increased by 163% [ 4 ]. Poland is among eight European countries (Germany, Great Britain, France, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, and Belgium), which generate 76% of the European GDP and 80% of the total revenues from courier service in Europe. Although CEP market has been growing dynamically in Poland, it is still relatively young and prospective as it represents only 3.5% of the European market in terms of value and 4.8% in terms of volume [ 5 ]. CEP market in Poland is very diversified and saturated both by global integrators offering complex logistics service, as well as small and medium companies specialising in urban delivery. Courier market in Poland is dominated by ten largest operators, whose share amounted to 97.6% of total volume and 94.6% of total revenue in 2019. Among the leaders there are mainly global integrators like DPD, DHL, UPS, FedEx, Geis and only two Polish enterprises: the national postal operator–Poczta Polska S.A. and one company founded in Poland with foreign capital–InPost [ 6 ]. It is worth emphasising that Poland is one of the most dynamically developing European markets in terms of out-of-home delivery just after Germany, France, the UK and Italy. The number of PUDO (PickUp Drop Off) points in Poland increased by 70% at the turn of 2020/2021 compared to the middle of 2019, while it grew by 40% in Europe in the same period [ 4 ]. The development of the CEP market in Poland has undoubtedly been influenced by the growing popularity of e-shopping, facilitated by better internet access and the growing customer confidence in online shopping. As a result, the structure of the client segment has gradually changed, and B2C services have become dominant in terms of the shipment volume. In 2020, B2C e-commerce orders accounted for 76% of all shipments, while B2B transactions represented 18,7% of the market, and C2X – 4,7%. In the lockdown period, as many as 67% of consumers used courier services. As a result, the courier market value grew by 30%, much more than 20% in 2019. The seasonal peaks in sales, as well as the coronavirus pandemic and the lockdown, contributed to the increasing number of Poles buying online [ 4 , 7 ]. Considering e-clients choice, courier service is the most preferred form of parcel delivery, the quality of which affects customer opinions about e-shops. As a result, effective logistics has become a crucial factor in gaining a competitive advantage and success for online shops [ 7 ]. Moreover, the specificity of the e-commerce, particularly including the individual requirements of e-consumers, forced courier operators to offer dedicated solutions such as mobile applications to track&trace the delivery, bots or chat-bots instead of traditional customer service and pick-up-drop-off networks [ 8 – 14 ]. According to expert forecasts, the high dynamics of CEP market growth in Poland will be maintained up to the value of EUR 3,6 billion in 2023, which means the increase of as much as 514 percent in three years. Considering the volume of shipments, the analysts predict that courier companies will pick up 1,31 billion parcels in 2023 (61% more than in 2020) [ 4 ].

The rapid development of e-commerce and increasing customer expectations make service quality improvement an essential objective for courier companies [ 4 – 14 ]. However, the literature considering courier service quality is limited. The research carried out so far did not reflect the specificity of the e-commerce branch, as they usually focused on recipients of courier services (individuals or business customers) omitting the sender—an online shop and a courier company [ 15 ]. However, many authors emphasised the need for further research on service quality integrating both perspectives: customers (external quality) and organisations (internal quality). Such efforts would shed new light on service quality and suggest key directions for quality improvement [ 16 – 22 ]. This paper presents the final part of a complex study, aiming to fill such gaps. Based on the review and analysis of literature concerning courier service quality in the context of e-commerce development, the following research gap was identified: the lack of a comprehensive approach concerning determinants of courier service quality in the e-commerce sector from the perspective of three stakeholder groups: e-shops, courier companies and e-clients. Based on the identified research gap, the research problem was defined: which factors and their interrelations impact courier service quality in the B2C e-commerce sector?

This research mainly aims to identify functions and relationships between factors that determine the courier service quality in the B2C e-commerce sector considering the multi-stakeholder perspective of online shops, courier companies and e-customers. The main result of this study is the relational model that reflects the factors affecting the courier service quality and their interrelations, i.e., the crucial and other factors that perform various functions in the analysed system. As a result, five groups of factors that determine courier service quality were distinguished: crucial factors, determinants, results, autonomous and external factors. Among 12 analysed factors, the most important was an efficient and fast order processing (SERV), which turned out to be the crucial factor. The group of determinant factors classified: the responsiveness of a courier company to reported problems (RES), easy contact with the courier company (CON), and efficient communication between courier company employees and clients (online shops and e-customers) (COM). The group of result factors included the timeliness of delivery (TIM), the effectiveness of delivery (EFF), and positive relationships and the customer experience with courier service (REL). The factor compliance and completeness of the order (COMP) was classified as an autonomous factor. In contrast, external factors included the lack of damage to the shipment (DAM), cultured and courteous behaviour of courier company employees (CUL), flexibility in the choice or change of date and place of delivery (FLE), and the choice of the form of parcel sending or delivering (FOR). The relational model can be used to support the implementation of improvement actions concerning service quality in courier enterprises.

Literature review concerning the courier service quality

Customer-perceived service quality is often used as an indicator for measuring business performance and market position affecting the competitive advantage [ 23 ]. The perceived service quality is defined as the level, to which a provided service matches customer expectations [ 24 – 26 ], finally affecting customer loyalty [ 27 , 28 ]. A part of research on perceived service quality studies concentrates on identifying service quality determinants in various sectors and branches. Parasuraman, Zeithaml and Berry developed a service quality model called the gap model [ 29 ], which became the frequently cited and modified model by authors in the service sector [ 15 ]. It presents four quality gaps arising in a company during the service delivery and the fifth gap during the contact with a client. The model includes ten following service quality determinants perceived by clients: reliability, responsiveness, competence, access, courtesy, communication, credibility, security, understanding, and tangibles [ 29 ]. The gap model authors developed the measuring scale of the perceived service quality called SERVQUAL, which included a reduced number of service quality dimensions: tangibles, responsiveness, reliability, empathy, and assurance [ 30 ]. Although the scale was criticised by many authors and, usually, adjusted to the specificity of a particular branch, it became the most used scale in the service sector [ 15 ].

Although aspects of the courier service quality are crucial and trendy due to e-commerce development, scientific literature has only several studies on the topic. Most of analysed studies focused on measuring courier service quality using the modified SERVQUAL method and some criteria of service quality were adapted to the specific nature of the courier service [ 31 – 35 ]. According to Tabassum and Badiuddin study, the customers perceived that courier service companies were empathetic and reliable, while their responsiveness, which entails a willingness to help the customers and deliver prompt service, was ranked last [ 31 ]. Liu and Liu defined and examined slightly different criteria of service quality. Reliability was also the most important dimension, while perception was the least significant. Moreover, security and empathy were rated the lowest, while safety and perception received the highest scores [ 32 ]. Similarly to Liu and Liu, the research conducted by Yee and Daud indicated that reliability was the most important for customers, while empathy concerned them the least. The regression analysis results showed that tangibility, reliability and assurance impacted customer satisfaction, while empathy and responsiveness had no significant effect [ 33 ]. Similarly to above mentioned authors, Ho et al. study aimed to identify the quality dimensions of courier services that contribute to customer satisfaction [ 34 ]. However, the authors applied quality dimensions consistent with the logistic scale of services (LSQ), previously developed by other authors [ 36 ]. The multiple regression analysis showed that in the context of the achieved satisfaction, the condition of order was a priority dimension for customers using courier services, thereby it replaced the timeliness, which was usually the most important critical dimension for the service quality in other research. It was also found that the quality of information had a major impact on customer satisfaction with courier services, which is in line with the results obtained by other researchers [ 37 , 38 ]. Valaei et al. developed the measurement scale called CouQual, which was based on the modified SERVQUAL method, according to the specificity of courier services. Based on the research results, the developed model of perceived quality indicated that timeliness, safety and convenience positively impacted the perceived service quality, while accuracy and tangibility had no significant impact [ 35 ].

In contrast to the previously discussed studies, a completely different approach was proposed by Yu et al. who considered the perspective of the service provider in terms of meeting customer requirements and needs in a two-stage method for improving the service quality. The method was developed based on the quality gap model, Quality Functional Deployment method and the fuzzy set theory. The courier industry’s research results have shown the most important aspects that a service enterprise should highlight to meet customer requirements. Studies by Yu et al. were innovative in terms of their subject matter, as they were concerned with identifying quality determinants inside a service company to eliminate four quality gaps [ 39 ]. The pilot study carried out by Gulc focused on the present and future expectations of clients towards courier service. Respondents assessed that the most critical criteria in the future would be the time of delivery, trust, flexibility and teletechnologies, while the price would be less important [ 40 ]. Further empirical research conducted by Gulc aimed to identify and classify the key factors which determined the courier service quality perceived by e-customers using the exploratory factor analysis. According to the results, the most important dimension affecting the courier service quality was the reliability manifesting as timeliness, a successful delivery attempt, the completeness of delivery and the lack of damage to the shipment, while visual identification and social responsibility were the least important [ 41 ]. The research by Ejdys and Gulc aimed to examine relationships between five constructs concerning courier service. The main result was the model presenting the relationship between trust in courier service, perceived service quality and future intentions to use the courier service. The results confirmed statistically significant relationships between the variables or the ease of use and the trust in service, the usefulness and the trust in service, the trust in service and the service quality, and, finally, the service quality and the future intention to use the service. The developed scale to measure the usefulness, the ease of use and customer trust in the context of courier service research was the most crucial contribution to the methodology [ 42 ].

To sum up the literature review, the authors of available studies have not developed the universal set of factors determining the courier service quality, therefore it is difficult to identify consistent conclusions. The factors were often selected according to the differentiated and specific criteria, such as the type of provided service, the segment of customers and the geographical and cultural context. Most of research indicated that reliability was the most significant factor of courier service quality [ 31 – 33 ], while responsiveness was considered as the least one [ 31 , 33 ]. In case of empathy, the opinions were not coherent [ 31 , 33 ]. So far, the studies were often fragmentary and situational, as they focused on the narrow group of respondents, the selected region of a particular country or only one of the quality criteria [ 31 – 35 ]. Moreover, the scientific research conducted so far was mainly concentrated on identifying criteria/attributes/factors affecting the courier service quality and the methods of evaluating them, omitting the existing relationship between the factors. The research on the courier service quality considered only one perspective, usually clients of courier services (individuals or business customers) [ 31 – 35 , 39 – 42 ] omitting the perspective of the sender—an online shop and a courier company. Considering the conclusions of analysed research on service quality, the article aims to analyse courier service quality from a multi-shareholder perspective, as it allows to formulate comprehensive and novel conclusions towards future directions of service quality.

Material and methods

To construct the relational model, empirical research focused on three main courier service stakeholders in the e-commerce branch. Therefore, the research process included five stages: quantitative research of online shops and, later, e-customers using courier service, qualitative research of courier enterprises, structural analysis, and finally, the development of the relational model. The empirical part of the research was conducted in 2019, and the final two parts in 2020. The study was non-interventional in nature and did not require permission from the Ethics Committee. All respondents agreed to participate in the study and their consent was written (quantitative study) and verbal (qualitative study). The surveys and interviews were anonymous. The qualitative research used the Computer Assisted Web Interview (CAWI) technique in the form of an electronic questionnaire used to survey e-customers and e-shops in Poland. The survey focused on Polish online shops selling various products. The respondents were asked to assess the impact of factors on the courier service quality using the 7-level Likert scale. The list of factors, which is presented in Table 1 , based on SERVQUAL scale was prepared as a result of literature review. In 2018, according to the Central Register and Information on Business, the number of e-shops amounted to 28.9 thousand. The minimum sample size was 384, assuming a confidence level of 0.95 (1-α) and a maximum permissible error of 5% calculated for the general population of about 28 thousand online shops. An electronic questionnaire was used to conduct confidential interviews; it was distributed between January and March 2019; 405 questionnaires were fully filled and returned, so the research results could be generalised for the whole population. The research sample was differentiated in terms of the size and duration of business activity. The majority of online shops participating in the study were small enterprises with fewer than ten employees (94.3%), while the smallest groups included large enterprises with over 250 employees (0.5%) and medium-sized enterprises with 49 to 249 employees (5.2%). The sample structure confirmed the e-commerce market trends in terms of the duration of business activity, in which about 60% of shops were operating for less than ten years. The medium share was recorded by shops operating for six to ten years (24.2%) and the least by those with over ten years of market activity (14.8%).

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The second part of research considered customers in Poland who had used courier service in the last three years to order products over the Internet. Due to the lack of data on the number of clients using courier services in Poland, the general population was assumed to be the number of persons ordering or buying goods or services via the Internet for private use. In 2018, according to the Central Statistical Office (GUS), the number amounted to 14,094,377 persons. In total, 594 fully completed questionnaires were received, making it possible to generalise the results (the minimum sample size amounted to 384, assuming a confidence level of 0.95 and a maximum permissible error of 5%). An electronic survey was distributed between April and May 2019. The respondents were asked to assess the impact of factors on the courier service quality using the 7-level Likert scale (the list of factors is presented in Appendix).The share of women in the study was 52% (309 persons), and 48% of respondents were men (285 persons). Among the respondents, 31.5% were 36–45 years of age, 22.2% were 26–35, and 15.8% were 46–55. The age groups below 25 and over 55 constituted about 15% of the respondents each. Both online shops and e-clients taking part in the survey represented all regions of Poland and the sample size distribution corresponded to the general population. Based on survey results, the exploratory factor analysis was used to indicate the correlation between variables and classified factors into theoretical constructs [ 43 ].

Later, qualitative research in the form of in-depth interviews was conducted in ten major courier enterprises. One part of interviews assessed the impact of factors on the service quality by the experts–the managers from courier companies (the same list of factors was used as in the previous research among online shops and e-customers).

A cross-impact analysis, otherwise known as the structural analysis, was used to identify the key factors influencing the courier service quality from the multi-stakeholder perspective in order to formulate conclusions and recommendations considering service quality. The author decided to carry on the research based on this method, as it provides an opportunity for a thorough presentation of the system under study. Identification of key variables influencing the analysed system is necessary to evolve and implement appropriate policies and strategies. Therefore, structural analysis can be used in forecasting and decision making process to achieve the desired objectives [ 44 ].

The main aim of the structural analysis is to detect and understand the mutual interactions among variables of interest and categorize them in terms of driving and dependence power. Finally, all the variables are classified into specified clusters with diversified functions in analysed system [ 45 , 46 ]. The advantage of the cross-impact analysis is the ability to identify relationships between variables which mutual influences are not obvious and may remain unrecognised even by experts in the field [ 47 ].

The structural analysis can be made using the MICMAC method developed by Michel Godet and François Bourse. The method is based on the algorithm using the multiplication properties of matrices [ 45 , 48 , 49 ]. The first stage of its implementation consists of making an inventory of all variables and/or factors, internal or external, that characterize the system. Next stage includes the description of mutual relationships between variables. The experts assess if there is the interaction between the pair of factors and determine its strength (low, medium, high or potential) using a four-stage scale. By analysing the relationships between the factors, a direct and indirect impact graphs are drawn. Finally, the last stage involves the classification of factors influencing the research area into the following clusters [ 47 ]:

  • crucial factors—characterised by high impact and high dependency on other factors; they require particular attention and research due to instability;
  • aim factors—represent possible aims of the analysed system; they are more dependent on other factors and are impact by them rather than vice versa;
  • result factors—are characterised by low impact and high dependency on other factors; are particularly susceptible to changes in crucial factors;
  • determinant factors (drivers and brakes)—have a powerful influence on the system and low impact on other factors; may be considered as a driving or braking force but are difficult to control;
  • regulatory and supplementary factors—have little impact on the system but may help achieve strategic objectives;
  • external factors—have less impact on the system compared to determinants but more than autonomous variables;
  • autonomous factors—have the least impact on changes in the system as a whole.

The groups of mentioned above factors are presented on the influence-dependence chart in Fig 1 .

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Source: [ 45 , 47 ].

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Structural analysis, which had been primarily used as one of the tool in futures studies, has experienced since the middle of the 1980’s an increasing number of applications in various fields concerning businesses as well as on society-related topics considering different aspects of management [ 47 – 58 ] including quality management [ 52 – 55 ].

As this research was based on the structural analysis using the MICMAC application, it was conducted in three stages. The first stage involved the compilation of the list of factors determining the courier service quality from the perspective of the three stakeholders involved in the courier service provision (e-shops, individual recipients, and courier companies). Based on quantitative and qualitative research results, the final list of factors was prepared, which included the highest factors rated by at least two groups of respondents (the mean value was above 6.0) ( Table 2 ).

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https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0251728.t002

Factors assessed by only one respondent group were not included in the structural analysis aiming to keep the final number of factors limited and the matrix transparent and legible as well as to ensure an appropriate duration of the expert panel.

The second stage of the structural analysis aimed to determine whether the factors impacted on other factors in the analysed area and what was the extent of the impact. The impact strength of factors was assessed by experts using a four-stage scale, in which 0 meant “no impact”, 1—“weak impact”, 2—“medium impact” and 3—“high impact”. Sixteen experts participated in the panel: representatives with academic experience in logistics, managers from courier companies, owners of online shops, and experienced customers using courier services. As a result, a direct impact matrix was created based on a direct influence matrix individually filled in by the experts. The resultant direct impact matrix of factors influencing the courier service quality is presented in Table 3 .

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https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0251728.t003

The experts participating in the study identified 144 relationships between factors (variables). In 72 cases, the dominant value was zero, meaning no relationship between the variables. In 13 cases, weak relationships were found, and in 23 cases, the relationships were of medium strength. Strong relationships between the variables were identified in 36 cases.

Table 4 presents the summary results of the calculations concerning the impact strength and direct relationships. The results indicate the following factors having a strong direct impact on the factors: SERV—the efficient and fast order processing, RES—the responsiveness of courier company to reported problems, CON—easy contact with the courier company and COM—the efficient communication between courier company employees, an e-shop, and an e-customer. The following factors were most dependent on the other factors: REL—positive relationships and the customer experience with courier service, SERV—efficient and fast order processing, EFF—the efficiency of delivery, and TIM—the timeliness of delivery. The lack of damage to the shipment (DAM) and the cultured and courteous behaviour of courier company employees (CUL) had the lowest dependence on other factors. Positive relationships and the customer experience with courier service (REL) had the least direct influence on other factors.

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In the next part of the analysis, a graph showing the strong direct impact of factors was created using the MICMAC programme ( Fig 2 ). It should be noted that almost all factors had strong correlations with several other factors (marked “3” on the graph), apart from the cultured and courteous behaviour of courier company employees (CUL), which had a high impact only on positive relationships and the customer experience with courier service (REL).

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Source: Own study.

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The analysis of the graph presented in Fig 2 indicates that the four factors have the strongest relationships with other factors, including the efficient and fast order processing (SERV), the timeliness of delivery (TIM), the effectiveness of delivery (EFF), and positive relationships and the customer experience with courier service (REL). It is worth noting that the efficient and fast order processing (SERV) is highly dependent on and strongly influenced by other factors.

During the next stage of the structural analysis, the influence–dependence chart was drawn using the MICMAC programme ( Fig 3 ). As a result, the following groups of factors determining the courier service quality were distinguished: the crucial factor, determinant factors, result factors, and autonomous and external factors. The structural analysis did not reveal other groups of factors often indicated in the literature, including regulatory, aim, and supplementary factors.

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https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0251728.g003

The most important factor in the examined system was the efficient and fast order processing (SERV), which turned out to be the crucial factor combining strong influence with a high dependency on other factors. The group of determinant factors included: responsiveness of courier company to reported problems (RES), easy contact with the courier company (CON), and efficient communication between courier company employees and clients (online shops and e-customers) (COM). Particular attention should be paid to determinant factors having a high impact on the system. They may be considered a driving or braking force, but they are also difficult to control. The group of result factors with low impact and high dependence on other factors included: the timeliness of delivery (TIM), the effectiveness of delivery (EFF), and positive relationships and the customer experience with courier service (REL). The factor compliance and completeness of the order (COMP) was classified as an autonomous factor with a low impact on the system and the smallest dependency. The last group were external factors having a less important impact on the system compared to the determinants, which was higher than that of the autonomous factors. There were four factors in this group: the lack of damage to the shipment (DAM), cultured and courteous behaviour of courier company employees (CUL), flexibility in the choice or change of date and place of delivery (FLE), and the choice of the form of parcel sending or delivering (FOR).

The final result of all previous research stages was developing the relational model of the courier service quality in the e-commerce sector considering B2C relations shown in Fig 4 . The model presents the factors determining the courier service quality, strong direct relationships between the factors and the functions performed by the factors in the analysed system, from the perspective of three groups of stakeholders: an e-shop, an e-customer, and a courier company.

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https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0251728.g004

According to all analysed stakeholders, efficient and fast order processing (SERV) is crucial for the courier service quality. Order processing includes all stages of the courier service process, starting from the acceptance of an e-customer order in an online shop until the delivery of the parcel to the e-customer. Efficient and fast order processing depends on many factors and influences the timeliness of delivery (TIM), the effectiveness of delivery (EFF), and the responsiveness of courier company to reported problems (RES). All three entities indicated two result factors—the timeliness of delivery (TIM) and the effectiveness of delivery (EFF)—which depend on other factors and impact the system less. The result determinants, which have a strong impact on other factors and less dependency, are aspects related to ensuring efficient communication between courier company employees and clients (online shops and e-customers) (COM), the easy contact with the courier company (CON), and the responsiveness of courier company to reported problems (RES).

As far as the relationship between an e-customer and a courier company is concerned, two additional factors in the context of service quality are indicated: the choice of the form of parcel sending or delivering (FOR), and the lack of damage to the shipment (DAM). Considering the courier service quality in the analysed system, these factors play the role of external factors, so they are independent of other factors and have little influence on the system.

From the perspective of a courier company and an e-shop, only one external factor is independent of other factors—the cultured and courteous behaviour of courier company employees (CUL). This factor strongly influences positive relationships and customer experience with courier service (REL).

According to an e-customer and an e-shop, three additional factors are important in the context of the perception of courier service quality: positive relationships and the customer experience with courier service (REL), the flexibility in the choice or change of date and place of delivery (FLE), and the compliance and completeness of the order (COMP). It is worth highlighting the critical role of positive relationships and the customer experience with courier service (REL), as this factor is strongly dependent on some factors while having no influence on others. On the other hand, the flexibility in the choice or change of date and place of delivery (FLE) serves as an external factor, which has little impact on the system and is rarely dependent on other factors. This factor affects the timeliness of delivery (TIM), the effectiveness of delivery (EFF), and the relationships between stakeholders, and at the same time, it depends on the easy contact with the courier company (CON). The compliance and completeness of the order (COMP) is an autonomous factor which has the least influence on the courier service quality and the least dependence on other factors.

The model also presents factors specific to each analysed entity and not included in the structural analysis. It should be stressed that each group indicated completely different factors. According to courier companies, factors influencing the service quality were mainly tangible and connected with technical, technological and infrastructure aspects of service, including the extensive and well-equipped operating network (NET), information and communication technologies (IT), and modern technical solutions (TECH). Other factors were related with customer needs on the service availability (AVA) understood as a convenient location of branches and pick-up-drop-off points as well as convenient working hours, but also the quick refund upon return of the consignment (RET), and the individualisation of the service ensuring convenient delivery time and form of payment (IND). In the case of online shops, the following factors were important: the security of transactions (SEC), the trust in the courier company (TRU), the experience and credibility of the courier company (EXP), and the protection of the client interests (INT). Moreover, the courier service quality was also perceived in the context of attractive pricing and discount policy (PRI). Online shops also appreciated the functionality of the service, meaning the simplicity of ordering (SIM) and the transparent procedures, documents and standards of service (PRO). E-customers paid particular attention to accurate and clear information on the conditions of service provision (INF).

A part of the obtained results was consistent with conclusions reached by other authors. Most previous studies also indicated the timeliness of delivery (TIM) as a priority dimension for customers using courier services [ 32 , 34 , 38 – 41 ]. Liu and Liu included the compliance and completeness of the order (COMP) among the most important factors determining the courier service quality analysed in this study [ 32 ]. It should be emphasised that the study revealed one of the most important group of factors—determinant factors—that require particular attention as they may be considered as a driving or braking force but are difficult to control. These factors concerned the empathy dimension including the efficient communication between stakeholders (COM), the positive relationships and the customer experience with courier service (REL), and easy contact with the courier company (CON). This result was in accordance with conclusions by Saura et al. [ 27 ] and Tabassum and Badiuddin [ 31 ] but opposed the outcomes by Liu and Liu and Ho et al. [ 32 , 34 ]. Unlike previously analysed research, the relational model presented in this paper includes many novel elements. First, the study presents the complex approach towards the courier service quality in the context of B2C e-commerce specificity joining the perspective of three entities: an e-shop, a courier company and an e-customer. Also, the application of the structural analysis not only allowed indicating the factors determining the courier service quality but also identifying their functions in the analysed area and direct interrelationships. Therefore, the main contribution to the management theory is the relational model reflecting the relationships between factors and their functions in the context of the service quality in B2C e-commerce.

The research results also contribute to the managerial practice in the field of courier services. Based on the developed model, the author formulated the recommendations for the improvement of the courier service quality in the e-commerce sector. The priority area of the service quality should be the efficient and fast order processing, as it depends on many different factors related to the technical and functional quality, and at the same time influences other factors determining the courier service quality. The study revealed that the aspects concerning communication, contact, and the responsiveness of courier company employees were particularly important in the context of ensuring a high courier service quality. These factors highly impact other factors, including the timeliness and effectiveness of delivery, but also the efficient and fast order processing, and, consequently, affect the positive relationships with customers. Therefore, companies providing courier service should try and develop interpersonal and communication skills of employees directly working with clients. Particular attention should be paid the most important factors of the courier service quality from the perspective of all stakeholders—the timeliness of delivery and effectiveness of delivery—which strongly depend on other factors and, therefore, are susceptive to changes. To ensure on-time and efficient delivery of parcels, courier companies should continue to invest in the development of their infrastructure (in particular, the network of pick-up-drop-off points) and modern information technology providing access to mobile and personalised service. It is imperative to implement solutions aimed at the further automation of courier service and the use of artificial intelligence to shorten the time of service delivery. Under conditions of increasing competitiveness in the courier market, the priority strategic objective is to retain and attract new customers. The study results confirmed that the positive relationships and the customer experience with courier service also affect the service quality; therefore, courier companies should offer added value to customers.

The author is aware of the study limitations in terms of evaluating the results and effectiveness of applying the relational model in courier service companies. Another limitation is related to the B2C segment of e-commerce and the research sample, which only involved Polish respondents, making the conducted research national.

The research findings suggest several directions for future efforts. The other segments of e-commerce, like B2B or C2X service, would be the potential areas for future research on determinants of courier service. It would also be interesting to conduct similar research in different countries of the world and identify cultural differences affecting the perception of the courier service quality. The dynamic development of courier service and modern technologies focused on end-consumers indicate that similar research should be repeated in the future to observe if the determinants of service quality change with time. Further research would consider the m-commerce sector as the current global trend resulting from further utilisation of mobile and wireless technologies and clients shifting from e-commerce to m-commerce [ 59 ].

This study contributes to the scientific research literature on e-commerce and courier service quality. It proposes a relational model presenting factors determining courier service quality, their functions, and relationships in B2C e-commerce. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this research is the first effort to study service quality using a comprehensive approach that considers a perspective of multiple stakeholders engaged in courier service in B2C e-commerce: e-shops, courier companies, and e-clients. The main study findings are the groups of factors determining the courier service quality: crucial, determinant, result, external, and autonomous. Among these five groups, crucial, result and determinant factors should be considered in the context of the future directions of the service quality improvement. The efficient and fast order processing, which impacts many other factors and depends on them, appeared to be the crucial factor for the courier service quality. Result factors, including the timeliness and effectiveness of delivery, and the positive relationships and the customer experience with courier service, are especially dependent on other factors. At the same time, they are particularly susceptible to changes in crucial factors. The study also revealed the importance of client service, including the aspects of communication, responsiveness and contact with clients. These determinant factors may be considered as a driving or braking force; therefore, they should be particularly examined in the context of the service quality in B2C e-commerce. It is worth emphasising that the relational model also presents the determinants of the courier service quality, which are specific to a particular group of analysed entities evolved in B2C e-commerce. Courier companies indicate technical and technological solutions, which corresponds to a tendency to increasing the automation of courier service in the future. E-customers pay attention to accurate and clear information on the conditions of service provision. According to e-shops, the following aspects are important: trust, service functionality, experience, and reliability of courier company, the security of transactions, and protection of customer interests. At the same time, the courier service quality is still perceived from the point of view of attractive pricing and discount policy. To sum up, the relational model can be used as a tool supporting the implementation of improvement actions concerning the service quality in courier enterprises as it reflects the key areas determining the service quality.

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An electric propulsion memoir

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  • Volume 1 , article number  3 , ( 2022 )

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Based on over sixty years of working in electric propulsion research, a personal memoir attempts to observe the progress of electric propulsion from early explorations to the present successes in accomplishing attractive and practical systems. It includes several anecdotal remarks on the difficulties of achieving acceptance of electric propulsion for space missions, and concludes with notions for the future. The perspectives offered may be useful for a new generation of electric propulsion workers who have entered a field that is now successful.

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Introduction

It may be appropriate for the inaugural edition of the Journal of Electric Propulsion to offer a perspective from the earlier days of electric propulsion (EP). These remarks are based on personal recollections from the 1960’s and will necessarily be incomplete, if not parochial, and do not represent a comprehensive review, as already provided in several excellent books on electric propulsion. Others should be encouraged to offer their own personal memories, which are rarely, if ever, recorded in technical papers.

My first work in electric propulsion began in 1960 when I was attracted to the notion of accelerating neutral matter using nonuniform electric fields. At about this time, there was still concern that ion engines would have difficulty neutralizing the ion beam in space. Nonuniform electric fields applied to polar molecules, or any polarizable material, including metals, offered a way around this potential difficulty, and might be employed in a multi-stage arrangement as in a linac. It turned out later, that such a notion works only for pulsed fields, and neutralization of ion beams was not really a problem. In any event, this started me in the direction of high voltages, electrical discharges and EP. My first paying job, at age 16, was in the Electric Propulsion Lab of Prof. Robert G. Jahn at Princeton University the summer before my freshman year (1963).

Early history

The earliest mention [ 1 ] of using electromagnetism for space exploration occurs when Cyrano de Bergerac proposes to reach the Moon by hurling a magnet into the air while standing on an iron plate, repeating this (as in a pulsed thruster) to continue upward. A proper and comprehensive history of electric propulsion is provided by Ernst Stuhlinger in the first chapter of his superb book Ion Propulsion for Space Flight [ 2 ]. He covers the early considerations of rocket pioneers Robert H. Goddard and Hermann Oberth, especially in regard to electrostatic acceleration of ions and sprays. In Electrical Rocket Engines of Space Vehicles [ 3 ], S.D. Grishin and L.V. Leskov note that K.E. Tsiolkovskiy “in 1911 for the first time expressed the thought that with the help of electricity it is possible to give immense speed to particles ejected from a jet instrument”. They also provide a brief account of early electric propulsion activities in the Soviet Union. During the Cold War, there was only limited understanding of such activities, typically transmitted informally by V.V. Zhurin. (This changed dramatically in the 1990’s with the spectacular reports [ 4 , 5 ] on the Stationary Plasma Thruster and other Hall thrusters.) Activities in China [ 6 ] were similarly almost unknown in the West, but included work on ablation-fed, pulsed plasma thrusters by An Shi-ming [ 7 ]. EP had some popular exposure in a Disney movie Mars and Beyond (1957) that included a fleet of six “cocktail umbrella” spacecraft spiraling into orbit around Mars. The umbrella was the radiator, the crew quarters were around the tip, and an array of ion engines was stationed on the shaft, which ended in a nuclear fission reactor. Ernst Stuhlinger was shown describing the system to Wernher von Braun (no audio, but presumably in German). I had retrieved this film for the AIAA Electric Propulsion Conference in 1985, and Edgar Choueiri did likewise for his excellent International Electric Propulsion Conference (IEPC) in 2005 in Princeton. This vision of large spacecraft for crewed voyages to Mars inspired and shaped much of electric propulsion thinking for subsequent decades.

Fig.  1 provides a taxonomy of electric propulsion techniques [ 8 ] c. 1995, most of which are discussed in terms of their operating principles in Physics of Electric Propulsion [ 9 ] by R. G. Jahn, ranging from colloid thrusters to ion engines and arcjets to traveling-wave notions. Some concepts did not last, while others disappeared, but have returned later, as more general appreciation of EP has occurred.

figure 1

The taxonomy of electric propulsion (c. 1995) indicating the three basic categories of EP and some of the several individual techniques [ 8 ]

A view in the 1960’s

The sixties were heady times, when NASA was funding many schemes that might advance opportunities for space exploration. Prof. Martin Summerfield remarked to me many years later that back then “any idea could get money, later any good idea would be funded, and now (c. 1985) even good ideas cannot find funding.” Indeed, anything that could make a spark might be proposed as the basis for an electric thruster. After all, that spark to a doorknob after walking across a wool rug in winter has temperatures much higher than in any chemical rocket engine. Conversion of high temperature, ionized gas into useful thrust might therefore be worth exploring, and continues to represent a challenge to more than one category of electric propulsion. (As a youngster, Robert H. Goddard wondered if such household electrical activity could help him rise above gravity, and he later returned to electric propulsion briefly as a research associate in physics at Princeton.)

The taxonomy of electric propulsion of Fig. 1 has three main categories: electrothermal, electromagnetic and electrostatic, among which there are (as Bob Jahn would phrase it) a “myriad” of variations. There was also a belief that the three categories would apply to three regimes of space flight mission. Electrothermal techniques at specific impulse values of several hundred seconds would be employed in earth orbit; electromagnetic thrusters, up to about 10,000 s, would take us to Mars; and electrostatic engines would be for exploration of the outer planets and beyond. No one thought that we would someday photograph Pluto with a spacecraft launched from the earth by chemical propulsion. This has been a victory for silicon, with vastly improved computers and light-weight electronics enabling compact diagnostics, communication links, signal processing, and gravity maneuvers. Indeed, this same progress with electronics in some sense impeded the entry of electric thrusters for primary propulsion roles because the previously expected need for megawatts of electrical power in space never developed.

Another curious impediment to the introduction of electric propulsion for space missions involved interactions with project managers responsible for selecting spacecraft thrusters. This included the very diversity of choices indicated in Fig. 1 , with many different types of thruster clamoring for attention, but also offering some confusion. The other problem was that no manager wanted to be the first to fail in accomplishing the mission because of choosing an EP system. If a “conventional” thruster fails, it is just the luck of dealing with complex devices in space. If an electric thruster is selected and fails, however, then it might be taken as a “lack of sound engineering judgement”, ominous words not to be invited into one’s career.

So, while many research projects continued to explore electric propulsion concepts, the goal of getting EP applied in space languished. There were tests of an ion engine in a space environment (as SERT I [ 10 ] and II [ 11 ], by NASA Lewis Research Center), and the launch of an ablation-fed pulsed plasma thruster on a sub-orbital rocket by the Chinese [ 7 ]. A similar ablation-fed PPT [ 12 ] accomplished mission use with LES-6 (by Lincoln Labs). A more accepted application came with resistojets [ 13 ], including the Augmented Hydrazine Thruster (AHT), which added modestly to the Isp for station-keeping by resistively supplying heat to hydrazine thrusters. For some reason, these were not really celebrated as electric propulsion successes, at least in academia, perhaps because they lacked the delightfully intricate and clever physics of electromagnetism and flow. Such interesting EP concepts thus remained in the laboratory, and in a quandary regarding acceptance for space applications: EP could not be used until it was used.

Meanwhile, back in the lab, progress was made on several fronts. The notion of employing contact ionization (e.g., cesium on hot tungsten, porous plugs) as the source of ions for electrostatic propulsion, which had been promoted by E. Stuhlinger [ 2 ] at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, gave way to electron-bombardment, discharge ionization [ 14 ] by H. Kaufman at NASA LeRC using mercury propellant, and continued to RF discharge techniques [ 15 ] at the University of Giessen (and, much later, microwave-driven sources [ 16 ] in Japan).

For plasma thrusters, early work on arcjets, which found application as high enthalpy sources for industrial needs and re-entry vehicle material testing, included successful development of a 30 kW radiation-cooled constricted arcjet that provided Isp = 1500 s with hydrogen and 1000 s with ammonia [ 17 ]. Work on arcjets extended into electromagnetic regimes, and initially involved inclusion of an axial magnetic field to spread the arc discharge heating more uniformly around the electrodes. But it was recognized also as a way to increase the impedance of the discharge. Such an impedance increase is associated with the rotation of the plasma in the axial magnetic field, and led to notions of converting the rotational motion into useful thrust by means of the so-called magnetic nozzle provided by the expanding axial field [ 18 ]. Thus, sub-categories of thrusters developed as self-field vs applied field arcjets. The latter were studied at Giannini Plasmadyne by A. Ducati, at Avco-Everett by R.R. John’s group, and at many other places around the world, including later at NASA LeRC by M. Mantenieks, R.M. Myers and J. Sovey. The self-field approach eventually became the focus of work at Princeton.

The initial activity at the Electric Propulsion Lab at Princeton University centered on the use of a large-radius, high speed (~ 40 km/s) implosion of a dynamic plasma discharge to create a high temperature pinch discharge on the axis [ 19 ] (Fig.  2 ). Plasma swept up by the imploding discharge would be expelled from the pinch column at high speed to provide the thruster exhaust. A related scheme [ 20 ] at Republic Aviation allowed the imploding discharge to be re-directed into an axial direction, rather than depending on the expulsion of plasma by the pinch; a similar approach was followed by A.I. Morosov, et al., in the Soviet Union. This involved adjusting the rz-shape of one electrode, allowing the plasma to exit out a central hole in the other electrode. The early Princeton experiments merely used two flat, circular electrodes. (Bob Jahn was a shock physicist, rather than a space cadet, and learned about large-radius, dynamic discharges while a faculty member at Caltech, sharing an office with George Vlases who was using an inverse-pinch discharge to create strong shocks.) In one set-up [ 21 ] at Princeton, operated by Rod Burton as a graduate student, a large hole was provided in one electrode allowing the plasma to escape into a bell jar (Fig.  3 ). In addition to the pinched plasma, the current pattern expanded out the hole forming a trumpet-shaped plume that persisted thanks to a more elongated (vs purely sinusoidal) current pulse.

figure 2

Sequence of Kerr-cell photos of a large radius dynamic pinch discharge. The initial diameter is 20 cm and height 5 cm [ 19 ]. In the first three frames, a bar blocks the intense pinch light from bleeding through the Kerr cell

figure 3

Sequence of Kerr-cell photos of expulsion of pinched plasma from chamber (diameter 12.7 cm, length 5 cm). Note resemblance of plasma luminosity at 2.3 and 2.7 μsec to arcjet plume [ 21 ]

The resemblance of this pattern to an arcjet flow led to a shift of the Lab’s effort toward studying high power, self-field magnetoplasmadynamic (MPD) thrusters by using a pulse-line to provide constant current to the discharge for hundreds of microseconds. This shift was encouraged by the discovery of an apparently higher efficiency regime of applied-field arcjet operation [ 22 ] by Adriano Ducati at Plasmadyne, when he substantially lowered the propellant input rate. (The thruster even operated when the mass flow was reduced to near zero, leading to concerns in future arcjet work with tank effects, e.g., refluxing mass.) Prof. Jahn returned from his annual summer consulting work at Plasmadyne to launch graduate student Kenn Clark on creating the first quasi-steady MPD thruster [ 23 , 24 ] as in Fig.  4 . This approach both enabled a university research effort at multi-megawatt power levels, but also offered the possibility for space applications to access higher efficiencies in repetitive, high power pulses, while operating at much lower average powers.

figure 4

Kerr cell photo of cathode region of a quasi-steady 2.5 MW MPD arcjet, 100 μsec into a 17.5 kA, 200 μsec constant current pulse [ 24 ] The propellant is argon, but there is ablation of the Plexiglas insulator indicated by greenish light near the base of the cathode (1.9 cm diameter). Less than 10 % of the current actually flows within the bright central region, with the rest more uniformly distributed in the thrust chamber

It should be noted that the Sixties was a time of amazing growth in computational capabilities, from a period in which some still believed that analog techniques could compete with digital computers to the appearance of large mainframe, digital computers on campus; (Princeton’s had 36 K of RAM!) For EP, such capabilities, however, mainly involved the development of zero-dimensional codes dealing with the nonlinearities of circuit behavior. Detailed modeling of complex MHD flows to describe the operations of MPD thrusters was deemed too difficult and was not within the research program at Princeton at that time. (Much later, such modeling was performed at R&D Associates, Inc. and The Ohio State University, adapting codes [ 25 ] borrowed from the Air Force.)

While the quasi-steady, self-field MPD thruster was great for training graduate students, it had little direct impact on the world of MPD arcjets, which continued in research programs at other laboratories. It was still difficult to find applications of electric thrusters for primary propulsion in the absence of megawatt space power supplies. An exceptional program was that at Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory where both nuclear thermal propulsion [ 26 ] and nuclear-powered, electric propulsion were pursued; the latter under Tom Stratton involved an applied-field MPD thruster using lithium as propellant [ 18 ]. It was envisioned that a nuclear reactor at 10 MWe would power such an arcjet to Mars as an alternative to nuclear thermal propulsion. The Apollo program, by its success in reaching the Moon, derailed this vision.

1970’s: the dark decade

After satisfying the US national goal of delivering astronauts to the Moon and returning them safely to earth, the impetus to continue further into the Universe with large missions diminished substantially and quickly. As the search for post-Apollo jobs became a concern, many folks listed helping reach the Moon on their resumes, but also deleted inclusion of their doctoral degrees, (lest it appear they would leave, if research funding returned). Aerospace engineers found new employment with high-energy lasers and high current power-line interrupters. Experience in electric propulsion led to applications for other needs for pulsed electrical power. For example in 1970, as a young Air Force officer, I introduced the use of large radius, imploding discharges of high-Z plasma to create very high power, short pulse sources of soft X-radiation [ 27 ] to simulate the effects of nuclear weapons. (This work at the Air Force Weapons Lab led eventually to the present Z-machine at Sandia National Labs.) The application of electric propulsion to a non-EP need was repaid many years later as the sophisticated numerical techniques from the nuclear weapons community were applied to electric thrusters, successfully modeling both self- and applied-field MPD thrusters [ 28 , 29 ] and the ablation-fed PPT [ 30 ].

As with the cultural phenomena of the Sixties that actually extended into the seventies, the Dark Decade of the seventies continued into the eighties. Many programs disappeared. These included the applied-field arcjet work at Avco-Everett, and even the program on nuclear energy for rocket vehicle applications (NERVA) at Los Alamos, in which the nuclear-electric driven, applied-field MPD thruster [ 18 ] went down with the nuclear thermal propulsion effort. But, as with the Dark Ages, things were not completely dark. There were many plans for electric propulsion in both the US and Japan. These included applications for US Air Force missions [ 31 ], (much later expanded to several projects [ 32 ]), the NASA solar-electric propulsion system (SEPS) [ 33 ], and a space test [ 34 ] of an MPD thruster by Japan, under K. Kuriki. The Strategic Defense Initiative (aka, “Star Wars”) offered some impetus for advanced spacecraft and included the development and (eventual) space test of a 26 kW ammonia arcjet.

Perhaps the nadir of EP was epitomized by relegation of the electric propulsion sessions at the Joint Propulsion Conference (Cincinnati, 1984) to the basement of a fish restaurant across the parking lot from the main meeting. Still, EP continued to make some progress, even if efforts were supported merely to answer concerns of EP’s possible interference with communication or contamination of the spacecraft with thruster exhaust. (The latter was particularly odd because in comparison to chemical propulsion EP ejected much less mass at much higher directed speeds.) Note that the Dark Decade for EP described here was largely a US phenomenon, while substantial progress continued in the USSR, which would later greatly impact efforts in the West.

A false dawn and a new hope

In 1991, the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) was announced in the US. This would include a return to the Moon, but was largely focused on a crewed mission to Mars. The baseline for the Mars mission was, of course, chemical propulsion. This committed the crew to a year-long journey to Mars, a very exciting entry and landing at Mars, and an even longer trip home. (One item that did not receive much attention was that no one knew the psychological effects of separating humans from the earth by vast distances, which was different than being able to look out the window at home from near-Earth orbit or even the Moon.) Clearly, the earlier dreams of nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) and nuclear-electric propulsion (NEP) could do better by reducing trip times and costs. While SEI brought back many of the surviving pioneers of nuclear propulsion, environmental concerns had changed over twenty years, so the challenges of ground-testing NTP were deemed too expensive. With NTP set aside, NEP was for some odd reason taken down also, including laboratory work at JPL for which the name MPD thruster that had been associated with nuclear power for SEI had to be changed to Lorentz Force Accelerator (LFA) in order to survive.

While the “false dawn” of SEI had a significant effect on MPD thruster projects for primary propulsion, progress continued in this same time period on the use of EP for station-keeping in near-Earth orbit. The xenon ion propulsion system (XIPS) [ 35 ] developed by Hughes Research Lab found acceptance for use on communication satellites, thanks in part to close corporate connections. This led to recognition by others that EP could provide competitive commercial advantages. Such recognition helped to encourage the successful development and sale of kilowatt-class, hydrazine-fueled (thermal) arcjets [ 36 ] by Rocket Research (and its descendants).

Note that there are two main approaches for designing an electric propulsion system [ 8 ]. One starts with the mission, selects a thruster, and then searches for (or develops) a power supply; the alternative is to accept the power available on the mission, and then select the thruster. Earlier focus on EP for primary propulsion demanded high power in space (0.1–10 MWe), which was not available. But satellites, e.g., for communication, provide their own power sources to which smaller electric thrusters could be matched for station-keeping missions. (Later, to demonstrate technology in support of potential missions, solar-cell arrays were combined with Hall thrusters and ion engines in the design of consistent solar-electric propulsion systems, such as SMART-1 by ESA [ 37 ], and still later, the Solar Electric Propulsion System at NASA Glenn Research Center, c. 2015.)

Field of the future

For decades, electric propulsion had been known as “the field of the future, and always will be”. With the advent of station-keeping roles, the future arrived in the nineties [ 38 ]. This was helped immensely by the news and establishment of multiple connections with the EP efforts in the former Soviet Union. These efforts included very high power, lithium arcjets [ 5 ], and decades of development and flight operation of Hall thrusters. In particular, the performance of the Stationary Plasma Thruster [ 39 ] was quite encouraging. Hall thrusters (in other arrangements) had been touched on in the US [ 40 ], but not pursued as arcjets, MPD devices and even gridded ion thrusters seemed simpler embodiments. By way of comparison, one aspect offered an attractive feature of SPT vs MPD behavior. In a self-field MPD thruster, the back EMF voltage across the accelerated flow is parallel to that at the entry to the thrust chamber, where it is supported by the resistive voltage drop as propellant enters the chamber at low speed. This means that the thrust power is always proportional to the resistive power deposited in the propellant, so reducing the mass flow rate to obtain higher exhaust speed results in heating in excess of what can be absorbed into the ionization of the propellant, limiting the exhaust speed to values scaled by the Alfven critical speed [ 41 , 42 ]. Attempts at higher speed lead to erosion and instabilities in the chamber. In the SPT, the voltage is developed in the axial direction by the Hall currents carried by circulating electrons, so high exhaust speeds, beyond ionization-based limits, can be obtained even with high atomic mass propellants, such as xenon; (other sources of erosion, of course, can exist.) Perhaps it was the ability of an electromagnetic thruster to obtain speeds much greater than Alfven critical speed (e.g., with xenon, krypton and argon) that led to some early confusion in which the SPT was identified in the West as a “closed-drift” ion thruster. (At the 1991 Electric Propulsion Conference, when we met in separate discussion sessions for ion engines and electromagnetic thrusters, I was able to verify with V. Kim that SPT indeed should be with the latter.) The ability to obtain high accelerating voltages without the need for the complex electrodes of electrostatic devices was another very attractive feature. Excellent interactions quickly occurred between Russian and Western groups, leading to rapid development of Hall thrusters for space applications, including joint ventures (e.g., STEX, the first western Hall Thruster flight in 1998, using a Tsniimash-style thruster via NASA LeRC to the Naval Research Lab, with a power conditioning unit from Rocket Research/Primex, led by Bill Smith), and commercialization (e.g., by Space Systems/Loral and Fakel Enterprises). Later efforts in the US involved new designs (e.g., by Busek Co., University of Michigan, and others).

Meanwhile, improvements in ion engine technology and demonstrations of satisfactory lifetimes in ground tests at JPL and NASA Glenn Research Center provided the basis for consideration of EP for primary propulsion. Although EP eventually missed an opportunity for the US mission to Mercury with Messenger, it did operate for voyages to the asteroids, including the NSTAR ion engine [ 43 ] for Deep Space-1, and Dawn [ 44 ]. Later, there were the fabulous Japanese missions of Hayabusa for sample returns [ 45 ], using engines with microwave generation of ions, and EP was selected by ESA/JAXA for the BepiColombo mission to Mercury. With confidence, therefore, the EP community was able to claim that “the future is now”. There was, however, still some lingering disdain by others.

For decades, the AIAA had sponsored a conference on electric propulsion that was held every year-and-a-half. Initially, these meetings were only in the US, but successful conferences were eventually held in Japan, Germany and Italy, co-sponsored by the local aerospace organizations. After the excellent 1991 meeting in Italy, the AIAA technical committee for EP selected Seattle as the next site, in order to capitalize on the proximity of Rocket Research for a visit to their electric propulsion activities. Unfortunately, AIAA Headquarters staff objected that the EP conference was too small to sponsor as a stand-alone meeting: “I’ve had larger cocktail parties in my home”; (perhaps her home was the size of a Cincinnati fish restaurant.) The EP community decided to proceed with the Seattle site, under the auspices of the Electric Rocket Propulsion Society, which was created for this purpose. We thereby had the first of over 25 years of the International Electric Propulsion Conference, which has served our community world-wide, as interest and activity in electric propulsion have grown dramatically. As chair of the AIAA Electric Propulsion Technical Committee and the first president of the new society, I helped to midwife this transition. More involved with the efforts needed for success, especially for the conference, were my co-founders: Joe Cassady, Frank Curran, Roger Myers and Bill Smith.

The S-curve

We might summarize the development of electric propulsion over the past 60 years by the so-called S-curve [ 46 , 47 ] in Fig.  5 . A typical curve of technology starts with a period in which basic notions are explored, gathering experience on what works and what doesn’t, and understanding the needs of future applications. A few concepts emerge that are deemed worthy of further development, and much progress is made toward practical and attractive systems. The curve then approaches a situation in which only incremental improvements are made on the basic concepts, representing refinements for particular applications. For EP, we started with the “myriad” electrical ways of accelerating matter to very high speeds. Some of these proved impractical, while others promised performance that did not match the needs of the market at the time. A few were able to go the distance toward applications, but encountered the Dark Decade, during which progress continued, but without substantial demand. With the growth of space assets, such as communication satellites, and recognition of the commercial advantages that high specific impulse could provide, (both as more time on station and reduced launch vehicle costs), electric propulsion has come into its own [ 48 ]. The upsurge in the EP curve starts c. 1991 with both this commercial recognition and with the revelation in the West of the Russian work on Hall thrusters. In terms of the two approaches to EP system design [ 8 ], satellites with significant electrical power offered the opportunity for EP to demonstrate its in-space capabilities. Success encouraged considerations of primary propulsion in the alternative design approach by which an EP technique is selected and space power is then designed to match. (Obviously, the overall spacecraft mission requirements contribute to the interplay between thruster and power supply selection and design.)

figure 5

The S-curve for electric propulsion starts with exploration of a “myriad” of thruster concepts, survives the Dark Decade of the Seventies, and then approaches a mature plateau of practical applications [ 46 , 47 ]. The sharp upswing c. 1991 corresponds to the recognition of the commercial advantage of EP for satellite station-keeping, and the news in the West of Hall thrusters from the former Soviet Union

A few techniques, such as Hall thrusters and ion engines, have reached a mature state of development that can include primary propulsion roles, in addition to station-keeping larger spacecraft. Currently, as part of the Artemis project returning humans to the Moon, Hall thrusters are scheduled to lift the Habitation and Logistics Outpost/Power and Propulsion Element (HALO/PPE) from earth orbit to its station orbiting the Moon. Other techniques, from small arcjets to ablation-fed PPTs to colloid thrusters find applications on satellites of various sorts that make up a growing population surrounding the earth. The possible return of nuclear energy for rocket vehicle applications (as in the recent DRACO project [ 49 ] for nuclear thermal propulsion) may also lead to space-nuclear power for electric thrusters, ranging from arrays of ion or Hall thrusters to lithium-fueled arcjets (or even to a high power form of electrothermal thruster VASIMR [ 50 ], somehow claimed not to be electric propulsion, but “plasma propulsion”). Ground-test of very high power systems for primary propulsion continues to represent a major challenge because of the propellant throughput, both in terms of the necessary vacuum systems and also the total amount of propellant (e.g., xenon) needed for adequate life-tests. Operation of lower power modules is an accessible approach for ion and Hall thrusters, presuming acceptable statistical treatment for large arrays. Ground test of a high power, lithium arcjet is facilitated by the ability to condense the lithium exhaust as in the Los Alamos work [ 18 ].

The progress EP has made up its S-curve is a tribute to the dedication of many people over many decades. Early on there was the leadership of Ernst Stuhlinger, Harold Kaufman, Yvonne Brill, Bob Vondra and Bob Beattie. An absolute hero in the US was the late Dave Byers, who tirelessly worked both the technical and programmatic issues, particularly emphasizing the requirements of ground-testing electric thrusters for their long-duration missions. He mentored many other major contributors, including Frank Curran, John Brophy, Jack Stocky and Jay Polk at NASA, and Roger Myers and Bill Smith at Rocket Research (eventually Aerojet). With the emergence of the SPT, Len Caveny, then at the Strategic Defense Initiative Office, helped to start Alec Gallimore on his splendid career with Hall thrusters at the University of Michigan. Progress elsewhere included the incomparable efforts of Kyoichi Kuriki in Japan, Marianno Andrenucci and Giorgio Saccoccia in Italy, and Horst Loeb and Monika Auweter-Kurtz in Germany. Our Russian colleagues who successfully labored, long out of our view, included A. Bober, V. Kim, A.I. Morosov, G. Popov and V. Tikhonov. With the growth of the field, there are now literally hundreds of contributors, perhaps matching the thousands of satellites now in orbit.

A new future?

In rising toward the S-curve plateau of practical application, there will still be both continued improvements and new notions. These include better components, e.g., lower erosion electrode techniques, and the revival of older concepts with modern technologies, e.g., colloid thrusters. The latter benefit from the overall success of electric propulsion in general, but need to address the same standards of life-time and reliability that have allowed acceptance of mature techniques. When an S-curve is accomplished, it is time to move to a new S-curve. What might this be?

Looking ahead 60 years, an area of continued challenge is crewed exploration of the Solar System. This will require high specific impulse and high specific power. The former is always available, even extending to the speed of light in photon propulsion mentioned by Stuhlinger [ 2 ]. The latter, however, is much more difficult and will be limited by the specific power of radiators, which means we must create concepts that minimize waste heat. Furthermore, a crewed voyage might involve a spacecraft mass of upward of thousands of tonnes, including radiation shielding, (recalling the very large spacecraft of the Disney movie mentioned earlier), and needs to be accomplished with transit times of only a few months. These requirements translate into thruster powers of many megawatts. To operate far from the Sun, e.g., exploring the oceans of Enceladus, nuclear power is needed. This is akin to the NEP effort in NERVA at Los Alamos that had the goal of 10 MWe for its lithium arcjet, but ended in the early seventies before achieving that goal; (at Saturn, such power would require a solar array about 1.6 km on a side.)

Nearing the top of the present S-curve, there is continued interest in nuclear-electric propulsion, which would seem to be a straightforward connection of mature EP techniques to a nuclear fission source of adequately high specific power. The latter may, however, still be too difficult, which would leave us resigned to robotic vs crewed missions to the worlds of the outer planets because trip times would be too long for safe travel by humans. (We need specific powers in the limit of the radiators and very large total powers.) One potential approach recognizes that conventional rockets benefit from an “open” thermodynamic cycle vs the closed cycle of the power supply for “conventional” nuclear-electric propulsion. Is it possible to go directly from nuclear energy to high specific impulse flows far above values available with present concepts for nuclear thermal rockets?

For many years, there have been notions of using the high speed products of nuclear reactions, e.g., fission fragments, and alpha or beta-decays, directly for thrust. Unfortunately, the short ranges of such products in solid-densities, while fine for generating heat, otherwise demand very large areas of solid surfaces to make these particles accessible for providing thrust. Gas-core fission rocket concepts help, but are limited by competition among particle interactions, e.g., between fission reactions and Coulomb collisions, if we attempt to use magnetic fields to limit heat transfer from the necessarily very high temperature plasma for high specific impulse.

Nuclear fusion offers possibilities, but has proven very challenging over many decades seeking to obtain terrestrial power. Much of the problem with such a goal is the difficulty of competing with other, cheaper sources of power on earth (e.g., natural gas, or even solar or wind power). For space applications, particularly missions to the outer planets and beyond, such competition is not a concern. There remain, however, the detailed technical challenges of controlled fusion, especially dealing with the high flux of high-energy neutrons. Apart from insulator damage and induced radioactivity, that portion of fusion energy that is provided by neutrons represents a reduction in the overall system specific power, either because of the radiator mass needed to deal with the heat of neutron deposition, or the occasionally suggested expedient of simply allowing the neutrons to escape. For the former, we return to the situation of a closed-cycle power plant. With the latter, we lose much of the energy of neutron-rich fusion reactions, such as from D-T or catalyzed D-D, making a challenging task even more difficult.

Fusion based on so-called “advanced fuels”, such as D-He3, helps by a factor of about twenty-five, and is attractive for space vs terrestrial application because of the availability (it is said) of He3 on the Moon thanks to the solar wind. There remains the difficulty of obtaining optimum values of exhaust speed, which are typically much lower than the speeds of fusion reaction products. This means that not only must we achieve fusion with much smaller fusion reaction cross-sections (and/or higher temperatures) than for D-T, but the energy obtained needs to be shared efficiently with a larger mass flow to allow use with the open-cycle of a rocket. Neither of these concerns needs to be addressed by the present terrestrial fusion efforts based on D-T. By adding in the requirements for system and mission considerations to a problem involving electromagnetism and plasma flow, all of which are traditional EP concerns, we may define an appropriate challenge for electric propulsion folk. Here, the energy of the flow is provided initially at the highest temperature by nuclear processes, and electromagnetic forces are needed to insulate and channel this flow to create a directed exhaust at optimum specific impulse. The new S-curve involves new technology, but applies the same consideration of mission needs, component life times, and system trade-offs in a complex electromagnetic and plasma environment with which the electric propulsion community is very familiar.

Such an adventure will not be to everyone’s taste or abilities. It is perfectly reasonable to follow the present S-curve toward further improvements and applications of known electric propulsion techniques. There may even be new conceptual arrangements. For some, however, the lure of advancing technology to enable crewed space-faring around the Solar System will be compelling. We should not view their explorations at the beginning of the new S-curve with the same level of rigor as applied to the mature technologies of our present S-curve, but recognize how far we have come and how far they must go.

A memoir that extends back over 60 years can encourage recollections from others, especially beyond the largely US efforts discussed here. The watershed in the West of the introduction of Hall thrusters from the former Soviet Union needs proper exposition while principal players are still available. Equally, it would be useful to consider the evolution of efforts in Japan, Europe, and China. Other memoirs can focus on the last 30 years during which there has been so much progress in electric propulsion applications. Indeed, recent work [ 51 ] extends the introduction of S-curve considerations of EP [ 46 , 47 ] quantitatively to a broad range of thrusters, (and provides a very substantial, albeit incomplete, list of references). Also, the classic texts of Stuhlinger [ 2 ] and Jahn [ 9 ] have been properly complemented [ 52 ] for Hall thruster and modern ion engine design. The applications of EP to satellite control now number in the thousands (e.g., Starlink), and we may soon continue the 1960’s goal of primary propulsion toward the outer planets with the Psyche mission [ 53 ] using Hall thrusters, enabled by continued progress with solar-electric systems. Beyond this, crewed exploration of the diverse worlds of our nearest “solar systems”, Jupiter and Saturn, still beckons.

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Acknowledgements

I gratefully note the useful comments and corrections offered by Frank Curran and Bill Smith, and look forward to their own memoirs on EP that would elaborate in detail on the efforts that made electric propulsion a success. They are not responsible for the several errors and omissions that I may have made in the present work.

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Turchi, P.J. An electric propulsion memoir. J Electr Propuls 1 , 3 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s44205-022-00004-z

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A new future of work: The race to deploy AI and raise skills in Europe and beyond

At a glance.

Amid tightening labor markets and a slowdown in productivity growth, Europe and the United States face shifts in labor demand, spurred by AI and automation. Our updated modeling of the future of work finds that demand for workers in STEM-related, healthcare, and other high-skill professions would rise, while demand for occupations such as office workers, production workers, and customer service representatives would decline. By 2030, in a midpoint adoption scenario, up to 30 percent of current hours worked could be automated, accelerated by generative AI (gen AI). Efforts to achieve net-zero emissions, an aging workforce, and growth in e-commerce, as well as infrastructure and technology spending and overall economic growth, could also shift employment demand.

By 2030, Europe could require up to 12 million occupational transitions, double the prepandemic pace. In the United States, required transitions could reach almost 12 million, in line with the prepandemic norm. Both regions navigated even higher levels of labor market shifts at the height of the COVID-19 period, suggesting that they can handle this scale of future job transitions. The pace of occupational change is broadly similar among countries in Europe, although the specific mix reflects their economic variations.

Businesses will need a major skills upgrade. Demand for technological and social and emotional skills could rise as demand for physical and manual and higher cognitive skills stabilizes. Surveyed executives in Europe and the United States expressed a need not only for advanced IT and data analytics but also for critical thinking, creativity, and teaching and training—skills they report as currently being in short supply. Companies plan to focus on retraining workers, more than hiring or subcontracting, to meet skill needs.

Workers with lower wages face challenges of redeployment as demand reweights toward occupations with higher wages in both Europe and the United States. Occupations with lower wages are likely to see reductions in demand, and workers will need to acquire new skills to transition to better-paying work. If that doesn’t happen, there is a risk of a more polarized labor market, with more higher-wage jobs than workers and too many workers for existing lower-wage jobs.

Choices made today could revive productivity growth while creating better societal outcomes. Embracing the path of accelerated technology adoption with proactive worker redeployment could help Europe achieve an annual productivity growth rate of up to 3 percent through 2030. However, slow adoption would limit that to 0.3 percent, closer to today’s level of productivity growth in Western Europe. Slow worker redeployment would leave millions unable to participate productively in the future of work.

Businessman and skilled worker in high tech enterprise, using VR glasses - stock photo

Demand will change for a range of occupations through 2030, including growth in STEM- and healthcare-related occupations, among others

This report focuses on labor markets in nine major economies in the European Union along with the United Kingdom, in comparison with the United States. Technology, including most recently the rise of gen AI, along with other factors, will spur changes in the pattern of labor demand through 2030. Our study, which uses an updated version of the McKinsey Global Institute future of work model, seeks to quantify the occupational transitions that will be required and the changing nature of demand for different types of jobs and skills.

Our methodology

We used methodology consistent with other McKinsey Global Institute reports on the future of work to model trends of job changes at the level of occupations, activities, and skills. For this report, we focused our analysis on the 2022–30 period.

Our model estimates net changes in employment demand by sector and occupation; we also estimate occupational transitions, or the net number of workers that need to change in each type of occupation, based on which occupations face declining demand by 2030 relative to current employment in 2022. We included ten countries in Europe: nine EU members—the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, and Sweden—and the United Kingdom. For the United States, we build on estimates published in our 2023 report Generative AI and the future of work in America.

We included multiple drivers in our modeling: automation potential, net-zero transition, e-commerce growth, remote work adoption, increases in income, aging populations, technology investments, and infrastructure investments.

Two scenarios are used to bookend the work-automation model: “late” and “early.” For Europe, we modeled a “faster” scenario and a “slower” one. For the faster scenario, we use the midpoint—the arithmetical average between our late and early scenarios. For the slower scenario, we use a “mid late” trajectory, an arithmetical average between a late adoption scenario and the midpoint scenario. For the United States, we use the midpoint scenario, based on our earlier research.

We also estimate the productivity effects of automation, using GDP per full-time-equivalent (FTE) employee as the measure of productivity. We assumed that workers displaced by automation rejoin the workforce at 2022 productivity levels, net of automation, and in line with the expected 2030 occupational mix.

Amid tightening labor markets and a slowdown in productivity growth, Europe and the United States face shifts in labor demand, spurred not only by AI and automation but also by other trends, including efforts to achieve net-zero emissions, an aging population, infrastructure spending, technology investments, and growth in e-commerce, among others (see sidebar, “Our methodology”).

Our analysis finds that demand for occupations such as health professionals and other STEM-related professionals would grow by 17 to 30 percent between 2022 and 2030, (Exhibit 1).

By contrast, demand for workers in food services, production work, customer services, sales, and office support—all of which declined over the 2012–22 period—would continue to decline until 2030. These jobs involve a high share of repetitive tasks, data collection, and elementary data processing—all activities that automated systems can handle efficiently.

Up to 30 percent of hours worked could be automated by 2030, boosted by gen AI, leading to millions of required occupational transitions

By 2030, our analysis finds that about 27 percent of current hours worked in Europe and 30 percent of hours worked in the United States could be automated, accelerated by gen AI. Our model suggests that roughly 20 percent of hours worked could still be automated even without gen AI, implying a significant acceleration.

These trends will play out in labor markets in the form of workers needing to change occupations. By 2030, under the faster adoption scenario we modeled, Europe could require up to 12.0 million occupational transitions, affecting 6.5 percent of current employment. That is double the prepandemic pace (Exhibit 2). Under a slower scenario we modeled for Europe, the number of occupational transitions needed would amount to 8.5 million, affecting 4.6 percent of current employment. In the United States, required transitions could reach almost 12.0 million, affecting 7.5 percent of current employment. Unlike Europe, this magnitude of transitions is broadly in line with the prepandemic norm.

Both regions navigated even higher levels of labor market shifts at the height of the COVID-19 period. While these were abrupt and painful to many, given the forced nature of the shifts, the experience suggests that both regions have the ability to handle this scale of future job transitions.

Smiling female PhD student discussing with man at desk in innovation lab - stock photo

Businesses will need a major skills upgrade

The occupational transitions noted above herald substantial shifts in workforce skills in a future in which automation and AI are integrated into the workplace (Exhibit 3). Workers use multiple skills to perform a given task, but for the purposes of our quantification, we identified the predominant skill used.

Demand for technological skills could see substantial growth in Europe and in the United States (increases of 25 percent and 29 percent, respectively, in hours worked by 2030 compared to 2022) under our midpoint scenario of automation adoption (which is the faster scenario for Europe).

Demand for social and emotional skills could rise by 11 percent in Europe and by 14 percent in the United States. Underlying this increase is higher demand for roles requiring interpersonal empathy and leadership skills. These skills are crucial in healthcare and managerial roles in an evolving economy that demands greater adaptability and flexibility.

Conversely, demand for work in which basic cognitive skills predominate is expected to decline by 14 percent. Basic cognitive skills are required primarily in office support or customer service roles, which are highly susceptible to being automated by AI. Among work characterized by these basic cognitive skills experiencing significant drops in demand are basic data processing and literacy, numeracy, and communication.

Demand for work in which higher cognitive skills predominate could also decline slightly, according to our analysis. While creativity is expected to remain highly sought after, with a potential increase of 12 percent by 2030, work activities characterized by other advanced cognitive skills such as advanced literacy and writing, along with quantitative and statistical skills, could decline by 19 percent.

Demand for physical and manual skills, on the other hand, could remain roughly level with the present. These skills remain the largest share of workforce skills, representing about 30 percent of total hours worked in 2022. Growth in demand for these skills between 2022 and 2030 could come from the build-out of infrastructure and higher investment in low-emissions sectors, while declines would be in line with continued automation in production work.

Business executives report skills shortages today and expect them to worsen

A survey we conducted of C-suite executives in five countries shows that companies are already grappling with skills challenges, including a skills mismatch, particularly in technological, higher cognitive, and social and emotional skills: about one-third of the more than 1,100 respondents report a shortfall in these critical areas. At the same time, a notable number of executives say they have enough employees with basic cognitive skills and, to a lesser extent, physical and manual skills.

Within technological skills, companies in our survey reported that their most significant shortages are in advanced IT skills and programming, advanced data analysis, and mathematical skills. Among higher cognitive skills, significant shortfalls are seen in critical thinking and problem structuring and in complex information processing. About 40 percent of the executives surveyed pointed to a shortage of workers with these skills, which are needed for working alongside new technologies (Exhibit 4).

Two IT co-workers code on laptop or technology for testing, web design or online startup - stock photo

Companies see retraining as key to acquiring needed skills and adapting to the new work landscape

Surveyed executives expect significant changes to their workforce skill levels and worry about not finding the right skills by 2030. More than one in four survey respondents said that failing to capture the needed skills could directly harm financial performance and indirectly impede their efforts to leverage the value from AI.

To acquire the skills they need, companies have three main options: retraining, hiring, and contracting workers. Our survey suggests that executives are looking at all three options, with retraining the most widely reported tactic planned to address the skills mismatch: on average, out of companies that mentioned retraining as one of their tactics to address skills mismatch, executives said they would retrain 32 percent of their workforce. The scale of retraining needs varies in degree. For example, respondents in the automotive industry expect 36 percent of their workforce to be retrained, compared with 28 percent in the financial services industry. Out of those who have mentioned hiring or contracting as their tactics to address the skills mismatch, executives surveyed said they would hire an average of 23 percent of their workforce and contract an average of 18 percent.

Occupational transitions will affect high-, medium-, and low-wage workers differently

All ten European countries we examined for this report may see increasing demand for top-earning occupations. By contrast, workers in the two lowest-wage-bracket occupations could be three to five times more likely to have to change occupations compared to the top wage earners, our analysis finds. The disparity is much higher in the United States, where workers in the two lowest-wage-bracket occupations are up to 14 times more likely to face occupational shifts than the highest earners. In Europe, the middle-wage population could be twice as affected by occupational transitions as the same population in United States, representing 7.3 percent of the working population who might face occupational transitions.

Enhancing human capital at the same time as deploying the technology rapidly could boost annual productivity growth

About quantumblack, ai by mckinsey.

QuantumBlack, McKinsey’s AI arm, helps companies transform using the power of technology, technical expertise, and industry experts. With thousands of practitioners at QuantumBlack (data engineers, data scientists, product managers, designers, and software engineers) and McKinsey (industry and domain experts), we are working to solve the world’s most important AI challenges. QuantumBlack Labs is our center of technology development and client innovation, which has been driving cutting-edge advancements and developments in AI through locations across the globe.

Organizations and policy makers have choices to make; the way they approach AI and automation, along with human capital augmentation, will affect economic and societal outcomes.

We have attempted to quantify at a high level the potential effects of different stances to AI deployment on productivity in Europe. Our analysis considers two dimensions. The first is the adoption rate of AI and automation technologies. We consider the faster scenario and the late scenario for technology adoption. Faster adoption would unlock greater productivity growth potential but also, potentially, more short-term labor disruption than the late scenario.

The second dimension we consider is the level of automated worker time that is redeployed into the economy. This represents the ability to redeploy the time gained by automation and productivity gains (for example, new tasks and job creation). This could vary depending on the success of worker training programs and strategies to match demand and supply in labor markets.

We based our analysis on two potential scenarios: either all displaced workers would be able to fully rejoin the economy at a similar productivity level as in 2022 or only some 80 percent of the automated workers’ time will be redeployed into the economy.

Exhibit 5 illustrates the various outcomes in terms of annual productivity growth rate. The top-right quadrant illustrates the highest economy-wide productivity, with an annual productivity growth rate of up to 3.1 percent. It requires fast adoption of technologies as well as full redeployment of displaced workers. The top-left quadrant also demonstrates technology adoption on a fast trajectory and shows a relatively high productivity growth rate (up to 2.5 percent). However, about 6.0 percent of total hours worked (equivalent to 10.2 million people not working) would not be redeployed in the economy. Finally, the two bottom quadrants depict the failure to adopt AI and automation, leading to limited productivity gains and translating into limited labor market disruptions.

Managers discussing work while futuristic AI computer vision analyzing, ccanning production line - stock photo

Four priorities for companies

The adoption of automation technologies will be decisive in protecting businesses’ competitive advantage in an automation and AI era. To ensure successful deployment at a company level, business leaders can embrace four priorities.

Understand the potential. Leaders need to understand the potential of these technologies, notably including how AI and gen AI can augment and automate work. This includes estimating both the total capacity that these technologies could free up and their impact on role composition and skills requirements. Understanding this allows business leaders to frame their end-to-end strategy and adoption goals with regard to these technologies.

Plan a strategic workforce shift. Once they understand the potential of automation technologies, leaders need to plan the company’s shift toward readiness for the automation and AI era. This requires sizing the workforce and skill needs, based on strategically identified use cases, to assess the potential future talent gap. From this analysis will flow details about the extent of recruitment of new talent, upskilling, or reskilling of the current workforce that is needed, as well as where to redeploy freed capacity to more value-added tasks.

Prioritize people development. To ensure that the right talent is on hand to sustain the company strategy during all transformation phases, leaders could consider strengthening their capabilities to identify, attract, and recruit future AI and gen AI leaders in a tight market. They will also likely need to accelerate the building of AI and gen AI capabilities in the workforce. Nontechnical talent will also need training to adapt to the changing skills environment. Finally, leaders could deploy an HR strategy and operating model to fit the post–gen AI workforce.

Pursue the executive-education journey on automation technologies. Leaders also need to undertake their own education journey on automation technologies to maximize their contributions to their companies during the coming transformation. This includes empowering senior managers to explore automation technologies implications and subsequently role model to others, as well as bringing all company leaders together to create a dedicated road map to drive business and employee value.

AI and the toolbox of advanced new technologies are evolving at a breathtaking pace. For companies and policy makers, these technologies are highly compelling because they promise a range of benefits, including higher productivity, which could lift growth and prosperity. Yet, as this report has sought to illustrate, making full use of the advantages on offer will also require paying attention to the critical element of human capital. In the best-case scenario, workers’ skills will develop and adapt to new technological challenges. Achieving this goal in our new technological age will be highly challenging—but the benefits will be great.

Eric Hazan is a McKinsey senior partner based in Paris; Anu Madgavkar and Michael Chui are McKinsey Global Institute partners based in New Jersey and San Francisco, respectively; Sven Smit is chair of the McKinsey Global Institute and a McKinsey senior partner based in Amsterdam; Dana Maor is a McKinsey senior partner based in Tel Aviv; Gurneet Singh Dandona is an associate partner and a senior expert based in New York; and Roland Huyghues-Despointes is a consultant based in Paris.

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What is Memorial Day? The true meaning of why we celebrate the federal holiday

For many Americans, Memorial Day is more than a long weekend and an unofficial start to the summer season. The real meaning of the holiday is meant to honor all U.S. soldiers who have died serving their country.

Originally called Decoration Day, Memorial Day's history goes back to the Civil War. It was was declared a national holiday by Congress in 1971, according to the U.S. Department of Veterans' Affairs.

Although Veterans Day in November also honors military service members, Memorial Day differs by honoring all military members who have died while serving in U.S. forces in any current or previous wars.

The late-May holiday has also evolved into an opportunity for Americans to head to the beach or lake , travel to see friends and family , or even catch a Memorial Day parade .

Here's what to know about the history and the reason behind why we observe Memorial Day.

Memorial Day weather: Severe storms could hamper your travel, outdoor plans for Memorial Day weekend

When is Memorial Day?

One of 11 federal holidays recognized in the U.S., Memorial Day is always observed on the last Monday of May. This year, the holiday falls on Monday, May 27.

Why do we celebrate Memorial Day?  

The origins of the holiday can be traced back to local observances for soldiers with neglected gravesites during the Civil War.

The first observance of what would become Memorial Day, some historians think, took place in Charleston, South Carolina at the site of a horse racing track that Confederates had turned into a prison holding Union prisoners. Blacks in the city organized a burial of deceased Union prisoners and built a fence around the site, Yale historian David Blight wrote in  The New York Times  in 2011.

Then on May 1, 1865, they held an event there including a parade – Blacks who fought in the Civil War participated – spiritual readings and songs, and picnicking. A commemorative marker was erected there in 2010.

One of the first Decoration Days was held in Columbus, Mississippi, on April 25, 1866 by women who decorated graves of Confederate soldiers who perished in the battle at Shiloh with flowers. On May 5, 1868, three years after the end of the Civil War, the tradition of placing flowers on veterans’ graves was continued by the establishment of Decoration Day by an organization of Union veterans, the Grand Army of the Republic. 

General Ulysses S. Grant presided over the first large observance, a crowd of about 5,000 people, at Arlington National Cemetery in Virginia on May 30, 1873.

This tradition continues to thrive in cemeteries of all sizes across the country. 

Until World War I, Civil War soldiers were solely honored on this holiday. Now, all Americans who’ve served are observed. 

At least 25 places in the North and the South claim to be the birthplace of Memorial Day. Some states that claim ownership of the origins include Illinois, Georgia, Virginia, and Pennsylvania, according to Veterans Affairs.

Despite conflicting claims, the U.S. Congress and President Lyndon Johnson declared Waterloo, New York, as the “birthplace” of Memorial Day on May 30, 1966, after Governor Nelson Rockefeller's declaration that same year. The New York community formally honored local veterans May 5, 1866 by closing businesses and lowering flags at half-staff. 

Why is Memorial Day in May? 

The day that we celebrate Memorial Day is believed to be influenced by Illinois U.S. Representative John A. Logan, who was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives as a Democrat in November 1858, and served as an officer during the Mexican War.

It is said that Logan, a staunch defender of the Union, believed Memorial Day should occur when flowers are in full bloom across the country, according to the  National Museum of the U.S. Army.

Congress passed an act making May 30 a holiday in the District of Columbia in 1888,  according to the U.S. Congressional Research Service.

In 2000, the National Moment of Remembrance Act – which created the White House Commission on the National Moment of Remembrance and encourages all to pause at 3 p.m. local time on Memorial Day for a minute of silence – was signed into law by Congress and the President.

What is the difference between Memorial Day and Veterans Day?

Memorial Day and Veterans Day both honor the sacrifices made by U.S. veterans, but the holidays serve different purposes.

Veterans Day, originally called “Armistice Day,” is a younger holiday established in 1926 as a way to commemorate all those who had served in the U.S. armed forces during World War I.

Memorial Day honors all those who have died.

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research paper on courier services

Examples of delivery completed by TSM courier service in 2022

Extra urgent delivery

within 24–72 hours

Moscow, Russia – Dubai, UAE

Passport delivery from hand to hand within 8 hours, the cost of the services – 833$

Frankfurt am Main, Germany –

Saint Petersburg, Russia

Courier delivery of medicines within 32 hours, the cost of the services – 933$

Frankfurt am Main, Germany – Saint Petersburg, Russia

Moscow, Russia – Belgrade, Serbia

Gift delivery within

8 days, the cost of the services – 233$

Bangkok, Thailand – Moscow, Russia

Delivery of a box with samples of sauce within 12 days, the cost of the services – 780$

Standard delivery

within 10–12 days

Reasonable economy, delivery time 21–28 days

Hertogenbosch, Netherlands – Krasnodar, Russia

Delivery of documents within 21 days, the cost of the services – 159$

Saint Vincent, USA –

Delivery of documents within 28 days, the cost of the services – 194$

  • using a combination of international and Russian courier services;
  • multimodal transportation;
  • by air courier.
  • a copy of the ID (passport) for the execution of the contract for the provision of delivery services;
  • shipment type;
  • weight and dimensions of the parcel or envelope;
  • sender and recipient addresses and indexes;
  • urgency of delivery;
  • if you are not sending documents, then you will need a full description of the contents or photos for the correct execution of invoices;
  • depending on the content, at the request of the manager, attach a receipt, licenses, certificates of conformity, a safety data sheet, a certificate from the Ministry of Culture;
  • choose a favorable plan for yourself from the ones offered by the manager;
  • pay for the delivery service;
  • tell us a convenient date and time for the manager to appoint a courier;
  • transfer the shipment to the courier along with the printed invoice, which will be sent to the manager in advance.
  • Turnkey customs clearance We competently fill out the accompanying documents – declarations and invoices in Russian and English for the successful passage of customs control during the international delivery of goods and parcels. 1
  • Purchase of goods abroad, parallel import We help TSM customers to purchase goods in foreign online stores and deliver them by courier to their home or office. Send a link to the product that needs to be redeemed. We undertake the task of registration and execution. 2
  • We receive the necessary certificates and permissions Customs inspectors carefully check the accompanying documents for art objects, antiques, liquid and bulk substances. TSM employees know exactly where and what kind of certificate they need to get in order for the cargo to successfully pass customs control. 3
  • Import to Russia Thanks to an extensive partner network and the presence of its own offices in Europe and Asia, TSM quickly adapted to the conditions of closed airspace and sanctions and established the delivery of documents, parcels, cargo from any continent to Russia. 4
  • Export from Russia In the normal mode for individuals and legal entities, we provide door-to-door courier services for commercial and personal documents, parcels with goods, samples and organize moving abroad. 5
  • International shipping We deliver by couriers, hand-to-hand and not only between continents, but also work with hard-to-reach island states. To apply for delivery, contact the TSM service remotely in a convenient way – via messengers, email or chat on the official website. The manager will assign a courier anywhere in the world. 6
  • Reliable packaging When sending parcels through the offices of TSM, employees label and pack the contents according to international rules – pick up a strong box or envelope, carefully wrap each item in an air bubble wrap, fill the voids with crumpled paper or foam pellets. On request, we produce a wooden crate. 7
  • Responsible storage If the customer does not have the opportunity to receive/send the parcel or documents on a certain date in person, then TSM assumes responsible storage in its own warehouse. 8
  • Hand-to-hand delivery Each TSM plan includes a hand-to-hand delivery service. Wherever the sender and recipient are – in the office of a megalopolis or in a hotel on a tropical island, the courier will pick up and deliver the shipment at a date and time convenient for the client. 9

We work with legal entities and individuals

At the conclusion of the contract, we provide discounts on frequent shipments, personal manager services. We issue documents on the day of request without bureaucracy

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Calculate the cost in 15 seconds

  • Assistance in filling out documents For delivery across Russia: courier waybill, bill of lading, power of attorney, certificates of the Ministry of Culture, safety data sheets, receipts. Cost from 5,5$ For delivery abroad: invoices, certificates of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, FSTEC certificates for dual-use goods, certificates of state samples. Cost from 8$
  • Personal courier delivery The courier puts the shipment in the luggage and departs to the recipient in any country and city on the nearest flight. We send from Russia or pick up abroad any documents, samples from 0,22 to 88 lb. The cost of the service consists of the price of round-trip economy class tickets . We take care of all the expenses for taxi, hotels, food and business trips due to the fact that we carry several non-urgent shipments with us at once and pick up something on the way back. Each person's day costs money, so entrust the delivery to specialists
  • Packaging Any size, shape and form : boxes, bags, envelopes, tubes, boxes. A choice of 127 types or custom-made, according to your or our drafts. From 2$.
  • Insurance Extra calmness . DDue to 100% coverage against loss, damage, loss during transportation. Shipments will be insured by Ingosstrakh, Pari, Spassky Gate. From 1$  or 1% of the cargo cost.
  • Customs clearance Import and export : customs declaration and cargo clearance, representation of interests in customs, assistance in collecting documents, certificates of conformity and quality. From 136,9$
  • Online tracking Track the shipment online on your account page, on the website, by phone: +7-495-181-13-83 or subscribe to receive emails. The package will not be lost thanks to a special four-stage marking (two stickers on the box from different sides, a pocket with an air waybill and a QR-code sticker). The service is provided free of charge
  • Personal courier delivery The courier puts the shipment in the luggage and departs to the recipient in any country and city on the nearest flight. We send from Russia or pick up abroad any documents, samples from 0,22 grams to 88 lb. The cost of the service consists of the price of round-trip economy class tickets . We take care of all the expenses for taxi, hotels, food and business trips due to the fact that we carry several non-urgent shipments with us at once and pick up something on the way back. Each person's day costs money, so entrust the delivery to specialists
  • Packaging Any size, shape and form : boxes, bags, envelopes, tubes, boxes. A choice of 127 types or custom-made, according to your or our drafts. From 2$ .
  • Insurance Extra calmness . Due to 100% coverage against loss, damage, loss during transportation. Shipments will be insured in Ingosstrakh, Pari, Spassky Gate. From 1$ or 1% of the cargo cost.
  • Customs clearance Import and export : customs declaration and cargo clearance, representation of interests in customs, assistance in collecting documents, certificates of conformity and quality. From 136,9$ .

research paper on courier services

Find out the "+" and "-" of each supplier, just click on the logo!

TSM (Time Saving Machine), as a doctor, knows which courier service will deliver the shipment unharmed and on time.

  • Vladimir R. Head of Logistic Department "There are no problems that cannot be solved." We know how to shorten the distance.
  • Elena K. Head of Customer Support Department "If you can always give a smile to life, life will always give a smile to you." We provide a high-level services and qualified support to all our clients.
  • Roman P. Head of International Logistic Having shown high results in his work, he headed the international logistic department. Now Roman manages a team of logistics specialists for international shipments and is always ready to personally communicate with existing and potential partners!
  • Elena P. Director of Development in Russia "I see the goal, I see no obstacles." Elena expands the horizon of the company. Marketing and PR promotion are his work.
  • Olga O. Deputy General Director "Live and learn forever." We are constantly studying new technologies and delivery methods so that your shipments arrive earlier than scheduled.
  • Alexey A. CEO and founder of the company Our mission: "'Saving customers' time, due to the best international express delivery service"

Import to Russia has been restored! TSM – International courier service has established delivery between the countries

Nursing Advances That Aren’t and Other Trends in Health Care Innovation

Penn ldi seminar eyes latest changes in care delivery.

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research paper on courier services

For its 2024 annual University of Pennsylvania Alumni Weekend Panel Discussion on May 17, the Leonard David Institute of Health Economics (LDI) brought together three rising health services research scholars to discuss what’s working and what’s not in the various care delivery innovation areas they’re involved in.

Moderated by LDI Executive Director Rachel M. Werner, MD, PhD , the event occurred in Houston Hall on the Penn campus and focused on policies and practices in primary care, nursing, and genetic and lab analytical services. All LDI Senior Fellows, the panelists were George Dalembert, MD, MSHP , the Founding Director of the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia (CHOP) Medical Financial Partnership; Halley Ruppel, PhD, RN , a core faculty member at the Clinical Futures, A CHOP Research Institute Center of Emphasis ; and Anna Wexler, PhD , of the Perelman School of Medicine Department of Medical Ethics and Health Policy. This is a synopsis of what they discussed;

Innovative Nursing Advances That Aren’t

“One of the biggest issues in care delivery innovations is the way some innovations produce the opposite of what the hospital thought they would achieve,” said Ruppel, a Research Assistant Professor at the University of Pennsylvania School of Nursing who focuses on how systems and technologies are integrated into hospital operations.

research paper on courier services

She pointed to devices and practices that are theoretically supposed to address widespread stress and burnout among nurses but instead add to the stress that drives nurse burnout.

“If you’ve been in a hospital lately, you know about all the inpatient monitors like vital sign monitors, IV pumps, ventilators, and others that just keep being added and that greatly impact nursing,” Ruppel said. “Even when those innovations do take away some of the work, they’re often creating new work. With monitors, that includes not only setting up the device, but also having to respond to alarms that are often not actionable or necessary and cause quite a burden, particularly in high-risk situations.”

An Alarm Every Few Minutes

She pointed out that it is now common for hospitals to issue iPhones to nurses and clinicians to be used as a facility-wide communication system. “These phones are going off with alarms in addition to messages from the clinical teams and so forth,” Ruppel said. “In intensive care units (ICUs), nurses spend a lot of their time delivering medications that can be deadly and that require a very tight focus on the task at hand. The nurses are often getting messages from the leadership telling them they need to avoid being distracted or interrupted when they’re doing this. Yet, their phones are ringing alarms at them constantly. Some studies estimate there’s an alarm from just one of the common monitoring devices–the vital signs monitor–about every 5 to 10 minutes.”

“There’s a kind of moral distress that comes with all of this. You’re doing something important, and an alarm goes off. You must decide, is this so important that I need to stop what I’m doing and respond to it or not? There have been many cases where the wrong decision has been made or an alarm has been missed, and something bad has happened to a patient that the nurse couldn’t respond to,” Ruppel said.

Adding to Burnout Pressures

A recent survey at the Penn School of Nursing’s Center for Health Outcomes and Policy Research (CHOPR) asked 2,100 nurses across the country about this issue and 85% of them reported they were overwhelmed by alarms. In addition, 81% said they routinely must delay responding to alarms because they’re busy with something else. “We found a strong association between alarm burden and levels of burnout,” said Ruppel. “So, these innovative technologies are contributing to the very burnout pressures they were supposed to be reducing.”

“Another innovation area of concern for nurses is that we’re seeing more and more products and devices developed or purchased to solve problems that nurses don’t actually have,” said Ruppel. “We need to reframe the innovation process in a way that more fully engages nurses and other clinicians in the identification of what the problem is that actually needs to be solved.”

Financial Advisors for Impoverished Patients

“The situation of poverty and health gives us an opportunity to really think innovatively about what it means to provide health care and think about impacting poverty through what we call medical financial partnerships,” said Dalembert, an Assistant Professor of Clinical Pediatrics at the Perelman School. “If we just focus on health care delivery as we have classically done, we are not going to be able to attain the full potential of our health care systems to improve the health and well-being of the patients and communities that we serve.”

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“Those of us who have studied this challenge know how big a barrier the social determinant of poverty is to health,” he continued. “About 11-12% of the U.S. lives in poverty. That number gets worse when you consider kids, and the number bumps up to 15-16%. And if you break that down for Philadelphia, that number doubles to more than 30% of them living in poverty. That’s our backdrop. That’s West Philly right up the street from here where our families are navigating to take care of their kids.”

Medical Financial Partnerships

“My approach to this has been to address some of those underlying drivers of a family’s ability to meet their needs through what we call medical financial partnerships where we work with local community organizations to deliver services that improve people’s financial health.”

“One of the most evidence-based ways to address poverty is through tax credits,” Dalembert said. “We have worked with a local organization over the past five years to help our local families access close to $2 million in tax credit refunds. That’s money that’s been infused back into the community to help both those individuals, as well as the family systems that they come from, to achieve their needs. We actually have a financial counselor available to patients and families, and that service has helped them increase their credit scores by 50 plus points.”

“That’s helped people to decrease their debt, that’s helped them to become first-time homeowners and thereby start to have a healthy home where they can grow up in and generate some intergenerational wealth that they can pass on to their kids and start to shift the system more broadly. The initiative also looks towards the future education piece. It’s proven that higher education is associated with increased income. And so, we work with the program that’s shown that having child savings accounts makes it three times more likely to have a child go to college, four times more likely to have that child finish college. We are helping people set their kids up for that and make up for not having a lot of money by having a lot of time. So, if you start with a baby and start saving, you’ll have more money by the time they’re ready for higher education.”

‘The Secret Sauce’

“All of this is done through community partnership, which I think is part of the secret sauce,” said Dalembert. “We don’t have to do all of this by ourselves. We don’t have to add tax preparation to the medical school curriculum, but we do have to think creatively about how we innovate to solve the problems that underlie health. And I think that’s a key to moving our systems forward.”

Skipping the Doctor for Diagnosis and Lab Blood Work

Wexler studies emerging innovation trends in the previously little-known fields of direct-to-consumer medical services. She began by pointing to the direct-to-consumer genetic testing site 23andMe that originally provided consumers with ancestry information derived from DNA in their submitted saliva. The company has expanded to lead what is becoming a crowded market of firms that analyze customer’s submitted DNA to identify genetic variants that may increase the risk for certain kinds of diseases and other health care biometrics. Other testing labs like Quest and LabCorp that used to exclusively perform blood analysis tests for physicians and medical facilities have now also expanded their system to provide the same kinds of tests directly to consumers.

research paper on courier services

No Doctor Visit Required

“The pitch is: ‘No doctor visit required. Understand your health on your own terms,'” said Wexler. “The costs are very transparent and low, and the process is very simple. It’s like Amazon. You click and add the test you want to your cart and check out and pay. You also click to schedule your appointment to have your blood drawn. A week later, you log back into the lab’s online portal to see your results.”

“Beyond these lab services, we also have direct-to-consumer orthodontics, mental health care and even prescription drugs. For the drugs, you go online and order the medication. Sometimes there’s a ‘ghost’ physician in the loop behind the scenes ordering the medication. All of these models flip the traditional model of health care on its head.”

“So, what about the ethics of all this?” Wexler asked. “We certainly have some concerns with this sort of health care delivery model, one of the most important being the privacy of health information. In my lab, we did a study of the privacy policies of 21 different direct-to-consumer lab testing companies–not the ones that offer the prescription medication, but the ones where you can go and get lab tests. We looked at their policies and whether they say anything about whether they comply with the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA).”

Low Level of HIPAA Compliance

“Less than half said that they comply with HIPAA. One said that they did not comply with HIPAA and 10 others had no information about whether they comply with HIPAA. A little more than half of the companies said that they can share their data for ‘research and development’ purposes, either internally or with external organizations. They did not provide information about that data sharing. So, it’s unclear how well the data that consumers give to these companies is actually being protected.”

“Another issue is the lack of follow-up, especially in cases where there are abnormal results on the lab test. Our study found that while the majority of the companies did provide consumers with the option to follow up, or they said there would be an option to follow up, it was often unclear who initiates the follow-up and what type of health care professional is involved or if there was a health care professional at all involved.”

“And there’s accountability and liability concerns related to abnormal results. If something goes wrong with the test or something bad happens to the consumer, who is liable and accountable? There may be a ‘ghost’ physician doing the ordering but not a physician who is accountable in the traditional way that we think about medical accountability,” said Wexler.

research paper on courier services

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