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A review of the global climate change impacts, adaptation, and sustainable mitigation measures

  • Review Article
  • Published: 04 April 2022
  • Volume 29 , pages 42539–42559, ( 2022 )

Cite this article

  • Kashif Abbass 1 ,
  • Muhammad Zeeshan Qasim 2 ,
  • Huaming Song 1 ,
  • Muntasir Murshed   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-9872-8742 3 , 4 ,
  • Haider Mahmood   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-6474-4338 5 &
  • Ijaz Younis 1  

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Climate change is a long-lasting change in the weather arrays across tropics to polls. It is a global threat that has embarked on to put stress on various sectors. This study is aimed to conceptually engineer how climate variability is deteriorating the sustainability of diverse sectors worldwide. Specifically, the agricultural sector’s vulnerability is a globally concerning scenario, as sufficient production and food supplies are threatened due to irreversible weather fluctuations. In turn, it is challenging the global feeding patterns, particularly in countries with agriculture as an integral part of their economy and total productivity. Climate change has also put the integrity and survival of many species at stake due to shifts in optimum temperature ranges, thereby accelerating biodiversity loss by progressively changing the ecosystem structures. Climate variations increase the likelihood of particular food and waterborne and vector-borne diseases, and a recent example is a coronavirus pandemic. Climate change also accelerates the enigma of antimicrobial resistance, another threat to human health due to the increasing incidence of resistant pathogenic infections. Besides, the global tourism industry is devastated as climate change impacts unfavorable tourism spots. The methodology investigates hypothetical scenarios of climate variability and attempts to describe the quality of evidence to facilitate readers’ careful, critical engagement. Secondary data is used to identify sustainability issues such as environmental, social, and economic viability. To better understand the problem, gathered the information in this report from various media outlets, research agencies, policy papers, newspapers, and other sources. This review is a sectorial assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation approaches worldwide in the aforementioned sectors and the associated economic costs. According to the findings, government involvement is necessary for the country’s long-term development through strict accountability of resources and regulations implemented in the past to generate cutting-edge climate policy. Therefore, mitigating the impacts of climate change must be of the utmost importance, and hence, this global threat requires global commitment to address its dreadful implications to ensure global sustenance.

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Introduction

Worldwide observed and anticipated climatic changes for the twenty-first century and global warming are significant global changes that have been encountered during the past 65 years. Climate change (CC) is an inter-governmental complex challenge globally with its influence over various components of the ecological, environmental, socio-political, and socio-economic disciplines (Adger et al.  2005 ; Leal Filho et al.  2021 ; Feliciano et al.  2022 ). Climate change involves heightened temperatures across numerous worlds (Battisti and Naylor  2009 ; Schuurmans  2021 ; Weisheimer and Palmer  2005 ; Yadav et al.  2015 ). With the onset of the industrial revolution, the problem of earth climate was amplified manifold (Leppänen et al.  2014 ). It is reported that the immediate attention and due steps might increase the probability of overcoming its devastating impacts. It is not plausible to interpret the exact consequences of climate change (CC) on a sectoral basis (Izaguirre et al.  2021 ; Jurgilevich et al.  2017 ), which is evident by the emerging level of recognition plus the inclusion of climatic uncertainties at both local and national level of policymaking (Ayers et al.  2014 ).

Climate change is characterized based on the comprehensive long-haul temperature and precipitation trends and other components such as pressure and humidity level in the surrounding environment. Besides, the irregular weather patterns, retreating of global ice sheets, and the corresponding elevated sea level rise are among the most renowned international and domestic effects of climate change (Lipczynska-Kochany  2018 ; Michel et al.  2021 ; Murshed and Dao 2020 ). Before the industrial revolution, natural sources, including volcanoes, forest fires, and seismic activities, were regarded as the distinct sources of greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, and H 2 O into the atmosphere (Murshed et al. 2020 ; Hussain et al.  2020 ; Sovacool et al.  2021 ; Usman and Balsalobre-Lorente 2022 ; Murshed 2022 ). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) struck a major agreement to tackle climate change and accelerate and intensify the actions and investments required for a sustainable low-carbon future at Conference of the Parties (COP-21) in Paris on December 12, 2015. The Paris Agreement expands on the Convention by bringing all nations together for the first time in a single cause to undertake ambitious measures to prevent climate change and adapt to its impacts, with increased funding to assist developing countries in doing so. As so, it marks a turning point in the global climate fight. The core goal of the Paris Agreement is to improve the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping the global temperature rise this century well below 2 °C over pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5° C (Sharma et al. 2020 ; Sharif et al. 2020 ; Chien et al. 2021 .

Furthermore, the agreement aspires to strengthen nations’ ability to deal with the effects of climate change and align financing flows with low GHG emissions and climate-resilient paths (Shahbaz et al. 2019 ; Anwar et al. 2021 ; Usman et al. 2022a ). To achieve these lofty goals, adequate financial resources must be mobilized and provided, as well as a new technology framework and expanded capacity building, allowing developing countries and the most vulnerable countries to act under their respective national objectives. The agreement also establishes a more transparent action and support mechanism. All Parties are required by the Paris Agreement to do their best through “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs) and to strengthen these efforts in the coming years (Balsalobre-Lorente et al. 2020 ). It includes obligations that all Parties regularly report on their emissions and implementation activities. A global stock-take will be conducted every five years to review collective progress toward the agreement’s goal and inform the Parties’ future individual actions. The Paris Agreement became available for signature on April 22, 2016, Earth Day, at the United Nations Headquarters in New York. On November 4, 2016, it went into effect 30 days after the so-called double threshold was met (ratification by 55 nations accounting for at least 55% of world emissions). More countries have ratified and continue to ratify the agreement since then, bringing 125 Parties in early 2017. To fully operationalize the Paris Agreement, a work program was initiated in Paris to define mechanisms, processes, and recommendations on a wide range of concerns (Murshed et al. 2021 ). Since 2016, Parties have collaborated in subsidiary bodies (APA, SBSTA, and SBI) and numerous formed entities. The Conference of the Parties functioning as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA) convened for the first time in November 2016 in Marrakesh in conjunction with COP22 and made its first two resolutions. The work plan is scheduled to be finished by 2018. Some mitigation and adaptation strategies to reduce the emission in the prospective of Paris agreement are following firstly, a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, secondly, to aim to limit the rise to 1.5 °C, since this would significantly reduce risks and the impacts of climate change, thirdly, on the need for global emissions to peak as soon as possible, recognizing that this will take longer for developing countries, lastly, to undertake rapid reductions after that under the best available science, to achieve a balance between emissions and removals in the second half of the century. On the other side, some adaptation strategies are; strengthening societies’ ability to deal with the effects of climate change and to continue & expand international assistance for developing nations’ adaptation.

However, anthropogenic activities are currently regarded as most accountable for CC (Murshed et al. 2022 ). Apart from the industrial revolution, other anthropogenic activities include excessive agricultural operations, which further involve the high use of fuel-based mechanization, burning of agricultural residues, burning fossil fuels, deforestation, national and domestic transportation sectors, etc. (Huang et al.  2016 ). Consequently, these anthropogenic activities lead to climatic catastrophes, damaging local and global infrastructure, human health, and total productivity. Energy consumption has mounted GHGs levels concerning warming temperatures as most of the energy production in developing countries comes from fossil fuels (Balsalobre-Lorente et al. 2022 ; Usman et al. 2022b ; Abbass et al. 2021a ; Ishikawa-Ishiwata and Furuya  2022 ).

This review aims to highlight the effects of climate change in a socio-scientific aspect by analyzing the existing literature on various sectorial pieces of evidence globally that influence the environment. Although this review provides a thorough examination of climate change and its severe affected sectors that pose a grave danger for global agriculture, biodiversity, health, economy, forestry, and tourism, and to purpose some practical prophylactic measures and mitigation strategies to be adapted as sound substitutes to survive from climate change (CC) impacts. The societal implications of irregular weather patterns and other effects of climate changes are discussed in detail. Some numerous sustainable mitigation measures and adaptation practices and techniques at the global level are discussed in this review with an in-depth focus on its economic, social, and environmental aspects. Methods of data collection section are included in the supplementary information.

Review methodology

Related study and its objectives.

Today, we live an ordinary life in the beautiful digital, globalized world where climate change has a decisive role. What happens in one country has a massive influence on geographically far apart countries, which points to the current crisis known as COVID-19 (Sarkar et al.  2021 ). The most dangerous disease like COVID-19 has affected the world’s climate changes and economic conditions (Abbass et al. 2022 ; Pirasteh-Anosheh et al.  2021 ). The purpose of the present study is to review the status of research on the subject, which is based on “Global Climate Change Impacts, adaptation, and sustainable mitigation measures” by systematically reviewing past published and unpublished research work. Furthermore, the current study seeks to comment on research on the same topic and suggest future research on the same topic. Specifically, the present study aims: The first one is, organize publications to make them easy and quick to find. Secondly, to explore issues in this area, propose an outline of research for future work. The third aim of the study is to synthesize the previous literature on climate change, various sectors, and their mitigation measurement. Lastly , classify the articles according to the different methods and procedures that have been adopted.

Review methodology for reviewers

This review-based article followed systematic literature review techniques that have proved the literature review as a rigorous framework (Benita  2021 ; Tranfield et al.  2003 ). Moreover, we illustrate in Fig.  1 the search method that we have started for this research. First, finalized the research theme to search literature (Cooper et al.  2018 ). Second, used numerous research databases to search related articles and download from the database (Web of Science, Google Scholar, Scopus Index Journals, Emerald, Elsevier Science Direct, Springer, and Sciverse). We focused on various articles, with research articles, feedback pieces, short notes, debates, and review articles published in scholarly journals. Reports used to search for multiple keywords such as “Climate Change,” “Mitigation and Adaptation,” “Department of Agriculture and Human Health,” “Department of Biodiversity and Forestry,” etc.; in summary, keyword list and full text have been made. Initially, the search for keywords yielded a large amount of literature.

figure 1

Source : constructed by authors

Methodology search for finalized articles for investigations.

Since 2020, it has been impossible to review all the articles found; some restrictions have been set for the literature exhibition. The study searched 95 articles on a different database mentioned above based on the nature of the study. It excluded 40 irrelevant papers due to copied from a previous search after readings tiles, abstract and full pieces. The criteria for inclusion were: (i) articles focused on “Global Climate Change Impacts, adaptation, and sustainable mitigation measures,” and (ii) the search key terms related to study requirements. The complete procedure yielded 55 articles for our study. We repeat our search on the “Web of Science and Google Scholars” database to enhance the search results and check the referenced articles.

In this study, 55 articles are reviewed systematically and analyzed for research topics and other aspects, such as the methods, contexts, and theories used in these studies. Furthermore, this study analyzes closely related areas to provide unique research opportunities in the future. The study also discussed future direction opportunities and research questions by understanding the research findings climate changes and other affected sectors. The reviewed paper framework analysis process is outlined in Fig.  2 .

figure 2

Framework of the analysis Process.

Natural disasters and climate change’s socio-economic consequences

Natural and environmental disasters can be highly variable from year to year; some years pass with very few deaths before a significant disaster event claims many lives (Symanski et al.  2021 ). Approximately 60,000 people globally died from natural disasters each year on average over the past decade (Ritchie and Roser  2014 ; Wiranata and Simbolon  2021 ). So, according to the report, around 0.1% of global deaths. Annual variability in the number and share of deaths from natural disasters in recent decades are shown in Fig.  3 . The number of fatalities can be meager—sometimes less than 10,000, and as few as 0.01% of all deaths. But shock events have a devastating impact: the 1983–1985 famine and drought in Ethiopia; the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami; Cyclone Nargis, which struck Myanmar in 2008; and the 2010 Port-au-Prince earthquake in Haiti and now recent example is COVID-19 pandemic (Erman et al.  2021 ). These events pushed global disaster deaths to over 200,000—more than 0.4% of deaths in these years. Low-frequency, high-impact events such as earthquakes and tsunamis are not preventable, but such high losses of human life are. Historical evidence shows that earlier disaster detection, more robust infrastructure, emergency preparedness, and response programmers have substantially reduced disaster deaths worldwide. Low-income is also the most vulnerable to disasters; improving living conditions, facilities, and response services in these areas would be critical in reducing natural disaster deaths in the coming decades.

figure 3

Source EMDAT ( 2020 )

Global deaths from natural disasters, 1978 to 2020.

The interior regions of the continent are likely to be impacted by rising temperatures (Dimri et al.  2018 ; Goes et al.  2020 ; Mannig et al.  2018 ; Schuurmans  2021 ). Weather patterns change due to the shortage of natural resources (water), increase in glacier melting, and rising mercury are likely to cause extinction to many planted species (Gampe et al.  2016 ; Mihiretu et al.  2021 ; Shaffril et al.  2018 ).On the other hand, the coastal ecosystem is on the verge of devastation (Perera et al.  2018 ; Phillips  2018 ). The temperature rises, insect disease outbreaks, health-related problems, and seasonal and lifestyle changes are persistent, with a strong probability of these patterns continuing in the future (Abbass et al. 2021c ; Hussain et al.  2018 ). At the global level, a shortage of good infrastructure and insufficient adaptive capacity are hammering the most (IPCC  2013 ). In addition to the above concerns, a lack of environmental education and knowledge, outdated consumer behavior, a scarcity of incentives, a lack of legislation, and the government’s lack of commitment to climate change contribute to the general public’s concerns. By 2050, a 2 to 3% rise in mercury and a drastic shift in rainfall patterns may have serious consequences (Huang et al. 2022 ; Gorst et al.  2018 ). Natural and environmental calamities caused huge losses globally, such as decreased agriculture outputs, rehabilitation of the system, and rebuilding necessary technologies (Ali and Erenstein  2017 ; Ramankutty et al.  2018 ; Yu et al.  2021 ) (Table 1 ). Furthermore, in the last 3 or 4 years, the world has been plagued by smog-related eye and skin diseases, as well as a rise in road accidents due to poor visibility.

Climate change and agriculture

Global agriculture is the ultimate sector responsible for 30–40% of all greenhouse emissions, which makes it a leading industry predominantly contributing to climate warming and significantly impacted by it (Grieg; Mishra et al.  2021 ; Ortiz et al.  2021 ; Thornton and Lipper  2014 ). Numerous agro-environmental and climatic factors that have a dominant influence on agriculture productivity (Pautasso et al.  2012 ) are significantly impacted in response to precipitation extremes including floods, forest fires, and droughts (Huang  2004 ). Besides, the immense dependency on exhaustible resources also fuels the fire and leads global agriculture to become prone to devastation. Godfray et al. ( 2010 ) mentioned that decline in agriculture challenges the farmer’s quality of life and thus a significant factor to poverty as the food and water supplies are critically impacted by CC (Ortiz et al.  2021 ; Rosenzweig et al.  2014 ). As an essential part of the economic systems, especially in developing countries, agricultural systems affect the overall economy and potentially the well-being of households (Schlenker and Roberts  2009 ). According to the report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, i.e., CH 4, CO 2 , and N 2 O, are increased in the air to extraordinary levels over the last few centuries (Usman and Makhdum 2021 ; Stocker et al.  2013 ). Climate change is the composite outcome of two different factors. The first is the natural causes, and the second is the anthropogenic actions (Karami 2012 ). It is also forecasted that the world may experience a typical rise in temperature stretching from 1 to 3.7 °C at the end of this century (Pachauri et al. 2014 ). The world’s crop production is also highly vulnerable to these global temperature-changing trends as raised temperatures will pose severe negative impacts on crop growth (Reidsma et al. 2009 ). Some of the recent modeling about the fate of global agriculture is briefly described below.

Decline in cereal productivity

Crop productivity will also be affected dramatically in the next few decades due to variations in integral abiotic factors such as temperature, solar radiation, precipitation, and CO 2 . These all factors are included in various regulatory instruments like progress and growth, weather-tempted changes, pest invasions (Cammell and Knight 1992 ), accompanying disease snags (Fand et al. 2012 ), water supplies (Panda et al. 2003 ), high prices of agro-products in world’s agriculture industry, and preeminent quantity of fertilizer consumption. Lobell and field ( 2007 ) claimed that from 1962 to 2002, wheat crop output had condensed significantly due to rising temperatures. Therefore, during 1980–2011, the common wheat productivity trends endorsed extreme temperature events confirmed by Gourdji et al. ( 2013 ) around South Asia, South America, and Central Asia. Various other studies (Asseng, Cao, Zhang, and Ludwig 2009 ; Asseng et al. 2013 ; García et al. 2015 ; Ortiz et al. 2021 ) also proved that wheat output is negatively affected by the rising temperatures and also caused adverse effects on biomass productivity (Calderini et al. 1999 ; Sadras and Slafer 2012 ). Hereafter, the rice crop is also influenced by the high temperatures at night. These difficulties will worsen because the temperature will be rising further in the future owing to CC (Tebaldi et al. 2006 ). Another research conducted in China revealed that a 4.6% of rice production per 1 °C has happened connected with the advancement in night temperatures (Tao et al. 2006 ). Moreover, the average night temperature growth also affected rice indicia cultivar’s output pragmatically during 25 years in the Philippines (Peng et al. 2004 ). It is anticipated that the increase in world average temperature will also cause a substantial reduction in yield (Hatfield et al. 2011 ; Lobell and Gourdji 2012 ). In the southern hemisphere, Parry et al. ( 2007 ) noted a rise of 1–4 °C in average daily temperatures at the end of spring season unti the middle of summers, and this raised temperature reduced crop output by cutting down the time length for phenophases eventually reduce the yield (Hatfield and Prueger 2015 ; R. Ortiz 2008 ). Also, world climate models have recommended that humid and subtropical regions expect to be plentiful prey to the upcoming heat strokes (Battisti and Naylor 2009 ). Grain production is the amalgamation of two constituents: the average weight and the grain output/m 2 , however, in crop production. Crop output is mainly accredited to the grain quantity (Araus et al. 2008 ; Gambín and Borrás 2010 ). In the times of grain set, yield resources are mainly strewn between hitherto defined components, i.e., grain usual weight and grain output, which presents a trade-off between them (Gambín and Borrás 2010 ) beside disparities in per grain integration (B. L. Gambín et al. 2006 ). In addition to this, the maize crop is also susceptible to raised temperatures, principally in the flowering stage (Edreira and Otegui 2013 ). In reality, the lower grain number is associated with insufficient acclimatization due to intense photosynthesis and higher respiration and the high-temperature effect on the reproduction phenomena (Edreira and Otegui 2013 ). During the flowering phase, maize visible to heat (30–36 °C) seemed less anthesis-silking intermissions (Edreira et al. 2011 ). Another research by Dupuis and Dumas ( 1990 ) proved that a drop in spikelet when directly visible to high temperatures above 35 °C in vitro pollination. Abnormalities in kernel number claimed by Vega et al. ( 2001 ) is related to conceded plant development during a flowering phase that is linked with the active ear growth phase and categorized as a critical phase for approximation of kernel number during silking (Otegui and Bonhomme 1998 ).

The retort of rice output to high temperature presents disparities in flowering patterns, and seed set lessens and lessens grain weight (Qasim et al. 2020 ; Qasim, Hammad, Maqsood, Tariq, & Chawla). During the daytime, heat directly impacts flowers which lessens the thesis period and quickens the earlier peak flowering (Tao et al. 2006 ). Antagonistic effect of higher daytime temperature d on pollen sprouting proposed seed set decay, whereas, seed set was lengthily reduced than could be explicated by pollen growing at high temperatures 40◦C (Matsui et al. 2001 ).

The decline in wheat output is linked with higher temperatures, confirmed in numerous studies (Semenov 2009 ; Stone and Nicolas 1994 ). High temperatures fast-track the arrangements of plant expansion (Blum et al. 2001 ), diminution photosynthetic process (Salvucci and Crafts‐Brandner 2004 ), and also considerably affect the reproductive operations (Farooq et al. 2011 ).

The destructive impacts of CC induced weather extremes to deteriorate the integrity of crops (Chaudhary et al. 2011 ), e.g., Spartan cold and extreme fog cause falling and discoloration of betel leaves (Rosenzweig et al. 2001 ), giving them a somehow reddish appearance, squeezing of lemon leaves (Pautasso et al. 2012 ), as well as root rot of pineapple, have reported (Vedwan and Rhoades 2001 ). Henceforth, in tackling the disruptive effects of CC, several short-term and long-term management approaches are the crucial need of time (Fig.  4 ). Moreover, various studies (Chaudhary et al. 2011 ; Patz et al. 2005 ; Pautasso et al. 2012 ) have demonstrated adapting trends such as ameliorating crop diversity can yield better adaptability towards CC.

figure 4

Schematic description of potential impacts of climate change on the agriculture sector and the appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures to overcome its impact.

Climate change impacts on biodiversity

Global biodiversity is among the severe victims of CC because it is the fastest emerging cause of species loss. Studies demonstrated that the massive scale species dynamics are considerably associated with diverse climatic events (Abraham and Chain 1988 ; Manes et al. 2021 ; A. M. D. Ortiz et al. 2021 ). Both the pace and magnitude of CC are altering the compatible habitat ranges for living entities of marine, freshwater, and terrestrial regions. Alterations in general climate regimes influence the integrity of ecosystems in numerous ways, such as variation in the relative abundance of species, range shifts, changes in activity timing, and microhabitat use (Bates et al. 2014 ). The geographic distribution of any species often depends upon its ability to tolerate environmental stresses, biological interactions, and dispersal constraints. Hence, instead of the CC, the local species must only accept, adapt, move, or face extinction (Berg et al. 2010 ). So, the best performer species have a better survival capacity for adjusting to new ecosystems or a decreased perseverance to survive where they are already situated (Bates et al. 2014 ). An important aspect here is the inadequate habitat connectivity and access to microclimates, also crucial in raising the exposure to climate warming and extreme heatwave episodes. For example, the carbon sequestration rates are undergoing fluctuations due to climate-driven expansion in the range of global mangroves (Cavanaugh et al. 2014 ).

Similarly, the loss of kelp-forest ecosystems in various regions and its occupancy by the seaweed turfs has set the track for elevated herbivory by the high influx of tropical fish populations. Not only this, the increased water temperatures have exacerbated the conditions far away from the physiological tolerance level of the kelp communities (Vergés et al. 2016 ; Wernberg et al. 2016 ). Another pertinent danger is the devastation of keystone species, which even has more pervasive effects on the entire communities in that habitat (Zarnetske et al. 2012 ). It is particularly important as CC does not specify specific populations or communities. Eventually, this CC-induced redistribution of species may deteriorate carbon storage and the net ecosystem productivity (Weed et al. 2013 ). Among the typical disruptions, the prominent ones include impacts on marine and terrestrial productivity, marine community assembly, and the extended invasion of toxic cyanobacteria bloom (Fossheim et al. 2015 ).

The CC-impacted species extinction is widely reported in the literature (Beesley et al. 2019 ; Urban 2015 ), and the predictions of demise until the twenty-first century are dreadful (Abbass et al. 2019 ; Pereira et al. 2013 ). In a few cases, northward shifting of species may not be formidable as it allows mountain-dwelling species to find optimum climates. However, the migrant species may be trapped in isolated and incompatible habitats due to losing topography and range (Dullinger et al. 2012 ). For example, a study indicated that the American pika has been extirpated or intensely diminished in some regions, primarily attributed to the CC-impacted extinction or at least local extirpation (Stewart et al. 2015 ). Besides, the anticipation of persistent responses to the impacts of CC often requires data records of several decades to rigorously analyze the critical pre and post CC patterns at species and ecosystem levels (Manes et al. 2021 ; Testa et al. 2018 ).

Nonetheless, the availability of such long-term data records is rare; hence, attempts are needed to focus on these profound aspects. Biodiversity is also vulnerable to the other associated impacts of CC, such as rising temperatures, droughts, and certain invasive pest species. For instance, a study revealed the changes in the composition of plankton communities attributed to rising temperatures. Henceforth, alterations in such aquatic producer communities, i.e., diatoms and calcareous plants, can ultimately lead to variation in the recycling of biological carbon. Moreover, such changes are characterized as a potential contributor to CO 2 differences between the Pleistocene glacial and interglacial periods (Kohfeld et al. 2005 ).

Climate change implications on human health

It is an understood corporality that human health is a significant victim of CC (Costello et al. 2009 ). According to the WHO, CC might be responsible for 250,000 additional deaths per year during 2030–2050 (Watts et al. 2015 ). These deaths are attributed to extreme weather-induced mortality and morbidity and the global expansion of vector-borne diseases (Lemery et al. 2021; Yang and Usman 2021 ; Meierrieks 2021 ; UNEP 2017 ). Here, some of the emerging health issues pertinent to this global problem are briefly described.

Climate change and antimicrobial resistance with corresponding economic costs

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is an up-surging complex global health challenge (Garner et al. 2019 ; Lemery et al. 2021 ). Health professionals across the globe are extremely worried due to this phenomenon that has critical potential to reverse almost all the progress that has been achieved so far in the health discipline (Gosling and Arnell 2016 ). A massive amount of antibiotics is produced by many pharmaceutical industries worldwide, and the pathogenic microorganisms are gradually developing resistance to them, which can be comprehended how strongly this aspect can shake the foundations of national and global economies (UNEP 2017 ). This statement is supported by the fact that AMR is not developing in a particular region or country. Instead, it is flourishing in every continent of the world (WHO 2018 ). This plague is heavily pushing humanity to the post-antibiotic era, in which currently antibiotic-susceptible pathogens will once again lead to certain endemics and pandemics after being resistant(WHO 2018 ). Undesirably, if this statement would become a factuality, there might emerge certain risks in undertaking sophisticated interventions such as chemotherapy, joint replacement cases, and organ transplantation (Su et al. 2018 ). Presently, the amplification of drug resistance cases has made common illnesses like pneumonia, post-surgical infections, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, etc., too difficult and costly to be treated or cure well (WHO 2018 ). From a simple example, it can be assumed how easily antibiotic-resistant strains can be transmitted from one person to another and ultimately travel across the boundaries (Berendonk et al. 2015 ). Talking about the second- and third-generation classes of antibiotics, e.g., most renowned generations of cephalosporin antibiotics that are more expensive, broad-spectrum, more toxic, and usually require more extended periods whenever prescribed to patients (Lemery et al. 2021 ; Pärnänen et al. 2019 ). This scenario has also revealed that the abundance of resistant strains of pathogens was also higher in the Southern part (WHO 2018 ). As southern parts are generally warmer than their counterparts, it is evident from this example how CC-induced global warming can augment the spread of antibiotic-resistant strains within the biosphere, eventually putting additional economic burden in the face of developing new and costlier antibiotics. The ARG exchange to susceptible bacteria through one of the potential mechanisms, transformation, transduction, and conjugation; Selection pressure can be caused by certain antibiotics, metals or pesticides, etc., as shown in Fig.  5 .

figure 5

Source: Elsayed et al. ( 2021 ); Karkman et al. ( 2018 )

A typical interaction between the susceptible and resistant strains.

Certain studies highlighted that conventional urban wastewater treatment plants are typical hotspots where most bacterial strains exchange genetic material through horizontal gene transfer (Fig.  5 ). Although at present, the extent of risks associated with the antibiotic resistance found in wastewater is complicated; environmental scientists and engineers have particular concerns about the potential impacts of these antibiotic resistance genes on human health (Ashbolt 2015 ). At most undesirable and worst case, these antibiotic-resistant genes containing bacteria can make their way to enter into the environment (Pruden et al. 2013 ), irrigation water used for crops and public water supplies and ultimately become a part of food chains and food webs (Ma et al. 2019 ; D. Wu et al. 2019 ). This problem has been reported manifold in several countries (Hendriksen et al. 2019 ), where wastewater as a means of irrigated water is quite common.

Climate change and vector borne-diseases

Temperature is a fundamental factor for the sustenance of living entities regardless of an ecosystem. So, a specific living being, especially a pathogen, requires a sophisticated temperature range to exist on earth. The second essential component of CC is precipitation, which also impacts numerous infectious agents’ transport and dissemination patterns. Global rising temperature is a significant cause of many species extinction. On the one hand, this changing environmental temperature may be causing species extinction, and on the other, this warming temperature might favor the thriving of some new organisms. Here, it was evident that some pathogens may also upraise once non-evident or reported (Patz et al. 2000 ). This concept can be exemplified through certain pathogenic strains of microorganisms that how the likelihood of various diseases increases in response to climate warming-induced environmental changes (Table 2 ).

A recent example is an outburst of coronavirus (COVID-19) in the Republic of China, causing pneumonia and severe acute respiratory complications (Cui et al. 2021 ; Song et al. 2021 ). The large family of viruses is harbored in numerous animals, bats, and snakes in particular (livescience.com) with the subsequent transfer into human beings. Hence, it is worth noting that the thriving of numerous vectors involved in spreading various diseases is influenced by Climate change (Ogden 2018 ; Santos et al. 2021 ).

Psychological impacts of climate change

Climate change (CC) is responsible for the rapid dissemination and exaggeration of certain epidemics and pandemics. In addition to the vast apparent impacts of climate change on health, forestry, agriculture, etc., it may also have psychological implications on vulnerable societies. It can be exemplified through the recent outburst of (COVID-19) in various countries around the world (Pal 2021 ). Besides, the victims of this viral infection have made healthy beings scarier and terrified. In the wake of such epidemics, people with common colds or fever are also frightened and must pass specific regulatory protocols. Living in such situations continuously terrifies the public and makes the stress familiar, which eventually makes them psychologically weak (npr.org).

CC boosts the extent of anxiety, distress, and other issues in public, pushing them to develop various mental-related problems. Besides, frequent exposure to extreme climatic catastrophes such as geological disasters also imprints post-traumatic disorder, and their ubiquitous occurrence paves the way to developing chronic psychological dysfunction. Moreover, repetitive listening from media also causes an increase in the person’s stress level (Association 2020 ). Similarly, communities living in flood-prone areas constantly live in extreme fear of drowning and die by floods. In addition to human lives, the flood-induced destruction of physical infrastructure is a specific reason for putting pressure on these communities (Ogden 2018 ). For instance, Ogden ( 2018 ) comprehensively denoted that Katrina’s Hurricane augmented the mental health issues in the victim communities.

Climate change impacts on the forestry sector

Forests are the global regulators of the world’s climate (FAO 2018 ) and have an indispensable role in regulating global carbon and nitrogen cycles (Rehman et al. 2021 ; Reichstein and Carvalhais 2019 ). Hence, disturbances in forest ecology affect the micro and macro-climates (Ellison et al. 2017 ). Climate warming, in return, has profound impacts on the growth and productivity of transboundary forests by influencing the temperature and precipitation patterns, etc. As CC induces specific changes in the typical structure and functions of ecosystems (Zhang et al. 2017 ) as well impacts forest health, climate change also has several devastating consequences such as forest fires, droughts, pest outbreaks (EPA 2018 ), and last but not the least is the livelihoods of forest-dependent communities. The rising frequency and intensity of another CC product, i.e., droughts, pose plenty of challenges to the well-being of global forests (Diffenbaugh et al. 2017 ), which is further projected to increase soon (Hartmann et al. 2018 ; Lehner et al. 2017 ; Rehman et al. 2021 ). Hence, CC induces storms, with more significant impacts also put extra pressure on the survival of the global forests (Martínez-Alvarado et al. 2018 ), significantly since their influences are augmented during higher winter precipitations with corresponding wetter soils causing weak root anchorage of trees (Brázdil et al. 2018 ). Surging temperature regimes causes alterations in usual precipitation patterns, which is a significant hurdle for the survival of temperate forests (Allen et al. 2010 ; Flannigan et al. 2013 ), letting them encounter severe stress and disturbances which adversely affects the local tree species (Hubbart et al. 2016 ; Millar and Stephenson 2015 ; Rehman et al. 2021 ).

Climate change impacts on forest-dependent communities

Forests are the fundamental livelihood resource for about 1.6 billion people worldwide; out of them, 350 million are distinguished with relatively higher reliance (Bank 2008 ). Agro-forestry-dependent communities comprise 1.2 billion, and 60 million indigenous people solely rely on forests and their products to sustain their lives (Sunderlin et al. 2005 ). For example, in the entire African continent, more than 2/3rd of inhabitants depend on forest resources and woodlands for their alimonies, e.g., food, fuelwood and grazing (Wasiq and Ahmad 2004 ). The livings of these people are more intensely affected by the climatic disruptions making their lives harder (Brown et al. 2014 ). On the one hand, forest communities are incredibly vulnerable to CC due to their livelihoods, cultural and spiritual ties as well as socio-ecological connections, and on the other, they are not familiar with the term “climate change.” (Rahman and Alam 2016 ). Among the destructive impacts of temperature and rainfall, disruption of the agroforestry crops with resultant downscale growth and yield (Macchi et al. 2008 ). Cruz ( 2015 ) ascribed that forest-dependent smallholder farmers in the Philippines face the enigma of delayed fruiting, more severe damages by insect and pest incidences due to unfavorable temperature regimes, and changed rainfall patterns.

Among these series of challenges to forest communities, their well-being is also distinctly vulnerable to CC. Though the detailed climate change impacts on human health have been comprehensively mentioned in the previous section, some studies have listed a few more devastating effects on the prosperity of forest-dependent communities. For instance, the Himalayan people have been experiencing frequent skin-borne diseases such as malaria and other skin diseases due to increasing mosquitoes, wild boar as well, and new wasps species, particularly in higher altitudes that were almost non-existent before last 5–10 years (Xu et al. 2008 ). Similarly, people living at high altitudes in Bangladesh have experienced frequent mosquito-borne calamities (Fardous; Sharma 2012 ). In addition, the pace of other waterborne diseases such as infectious diarrhea, cholera, pathogenic induced abdominal complications and dengue has also been boosted in other distinguished regions of Bangladesh (Cell 2009 ; Gunter et al. 2008 ).

Pest outbreak

Upscaling hotter climate may positively affect the mobile organisms with shorter generation times because they can scurry from harsh conditions than the immobile species (Fettig et al. 2013 ; Schoene and Bernier 2012 ) and are also relatively more capable of adapting to new environments (Jactel et al. 2019 ). It reveals that insects adapt quickly to global warming due to their mobility advantages. Due to past outbreaks, the trees (forests) are relatively more susceptible victims (Kurz et al. 2008 ). Before CC, the influence of factors mentioned earlier, i.e., droughts and storms, was existent and made the forests susceptible to insect pest interventions; however, the global forests remain steadfast, assiduous, and green (Jactel et al. 2019 ). The typical reasons could be the insect herbivores were regulated by several tree defenses and pressures of predation (Wilkinson and Sherratt 2016 ). As climate greatly influences these phenomena, the global forests cannot be so sedulous against such challenges (Jactel et al. 2019 ). Table 3 demonstrates some of the particular considerations with practical examples that are essential while mitigating the impacts of CC in the forestry sector.

Climate change impacts on tourism

Tourism is a commercial activity that has roots in multi-dimensions and an efficient tool with adequate job generation potential, revenue creation, earning of spectacular foreign exchange, enhancement in cross-cultural promulgation and cooperation, a business tool for entrepreneurs and eventually for the country’s national development (Arshad et al. 2018 ; Scott 2021 ). Among a plethora of other disciplines, the tourism industry is also a distinct victim of climate warming (Gössling et al. 2012 ; Hall et al. 2015 ) as the climate is among the essential resources that enable tourism in particular regions as most preferred locations. Different places at different times of the year attract tourists both within and across the countries depending upon the feasibility and compatibility of particular weather patterns. Hence, the massive variations in these weather patterns resulting from CC will eventually lead to monumental challenges to the local economy in that specific area’s particular and national economy (Bujosa et al. 2015 ). For instance, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report demonstrated that the global tourism industry had faced a considerable decline in the duration of ski season, including the loss of some ski areas and the dramatic shifts in tourist destinations’ climate warming.

Furthermore, different studies (Neuvonen et al. 2015 ; Scott et al. 2004 ) indicated that various currently perfect tourist spots, e.g., coastal areas, splendid islands, and ski resorts, will suffer consequences of CC. It is also worth noting that the quality and potential of administrative management potential to cope with the influence of CC on the tourism industry is of crucial significance, which renders specific strengths of resiliency to numerous destinations to withstand against it (Füssel and Hildén 2014 ). Similarly, in the partial or complete absence of adequate socio-economic and socio-political capital, the high-demanding tourist sites scurry towards the verge of vulnerability. The susceptibility of tourism is based on different components such as the extent of exposure, sensitivity, life-supporting sectors, and capacity assessment factors (Füssel and Hildén 2014 ). It is obvious corporality that sectors such as health, food, ecosystems, human habitat, infrastructure, water availability, and the accessibility of a particular region are prone to CC. Henceforth, the sensitivity of these critical sectors to CC and, in return, the adaptive measures are a hallmark in determining the composite vulnerability of climate warming (Ionescu et al. 2009 ).

Moreover, the dependence on imported food items, poor hygienic conditions, and inadequate health professionals are dominant aspects affecting the local terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity. Meanwhile, the greater dependency on ecosystem services and its products also makes a destination more fragile to become a prey of CC (Rizvi et al. 2015 ). Some significant non-climatic factors are important indicators of a particular ecosystem’s typical health and functioning, e.g., resource richness and abundance portray the picture of ecosystem stability. Similarly, the species abundance is also a productive tool that ensures that the ecosystem has a higher buffering capacity, which is terrific in terms of resiliency (Roscher et al. 2013 ).

Climate change impacts on the economic sector

Climate plays a significant role in overall productivity and economic growth. Due to its increasingly global existence and its effect on economic growth, CC has become one of the major concerns of both local and international environmental policymakers (Ferreira et al. 2020 ; Gleditsch 2021 ; Abbass et al. 2021b ; Lamperti et al. 2021 ). The adverse effects of CC on the overall productivity factor of the agricultural sector are therefore significant for understanding the creation of local adaptation policies and the composition of productive climate policy contracts. Previous studies on CC in the world have already forecasted its effects on the agricultural sector. Researchers have found that global CC will impact the agricultural sector in different world regions. The study of the impacts of CC on various agrarian activities in other demographic areas and the development of relative strategies to respond to effects has become a focal point for researchers (Chandioet al. 2020 ; Gleditsch 2021 ; Mosavi et al. 2020 ).

With the rapid growth of global warming since the 1980s, the temperature has started increasing globally, which resulted in the incredible transformation of rain and evaporation in the countries. The agricultural development of many countries has been reliant, delicate, and susceptible to CC for a long time, and it is on the development of agriculture total factor productivity (ATFP) influence different crops and yields of farmers (Alhassan 2021 ; Wu  2020 ).

Food security and natural disasters are increasing rapidly in the world. Several major climatic/natural disasters have impacted local crop production in the countries concerned. The effects of these natural disasters have been poorly controlled by the development of the economies and populations and may affect human life as well. One example is China, which is among the world’s most affected countries, vulnerable to natural disasters due to its large population, harsh environmental conditions, rapid CC, low environmental stability, and disaster power. According to the January 2016 statistical survey, China experienced an economic loss of 298.3 billion Yuan, and about 137 million Chinese people were severely affected by various natural disasters (Xie et al. 2018 ).

Mitigation and adaptation strategies of climate changes

Adaptation and mitigation are the crucial factors to address the response to CC (Jahanzad et al. 2020 ). Researchers define mitigation on climate changes, and on the other hand, adaptation directly impacts climate changes like floods. To some extent, mitigation reduces or moderates greenhouse gas emission, and it becomes a critical issue both economically and environmentally (Botzen et al. 2021 ; Jahanzad et al. 2020 ; Kongsager 2018 ; Smit et al. 2000 ; Vale et al. 2021 ; Usman et al. 2021 ; Verheyen 2005 ).

Researchers have deep concern about the adaptation and mitigation methodologies in sectoral and geographical contexts. Agriculture, industry, forestry, transport, and land use are the main sectors to adapt and mitigate policies(Kärkkäinen et al. 2020 ; Waheed et al. 2021 ). Adaptation and mitigation require particular concern both at the national and international levels. The world has faced a significant problem of climate change in the last decades, and adaptation to these effects is compulsory for economic and social development. To adapt and mitigate against CC, one should develop policies and strategies at the international level (Hussain et al. 2020 ). Figure  6 depicts the list of current studies on sectoral impacts of CC with adaptation and mitigation measures globally.

figure 6

Sectoral impacts of climate change with adaptation and mitigation measures.

Conclusion and future perspectives

Specific socio-agricultural, socio-economic, and physical systems are the cornerstone of psychological well-being, and the alteration in these systems by CC will have disastrous impacts. Climate variability, alongside other anthropogenic and natural stressors, influences human and environmental health sustainability. Food security is another concerning scenario that may lead to compromised food quality, higher food prices, and inadequate food distribution systems. Global forests are challenged by different climatic factors such as storms, droughts, flash floods, and intense precipitation. On the other hand, their anthropogenic wiping is aggrandizing their existence. Undoubtedly, the vulnerability scale of the world’s regions differs; however, appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures can aid the decision-making bodies in developing effective policies to tackle its impacts. Presently, modern life on earth has tailored to consistent climatic patterns, and accordingly, adapting to such considerable variations is of paramount importance. Because the faster changes in climate will make it harder to survive and adjust, this globally-raising enigma calls for immediate attention at every scale ranging from elementary community level to international level. Still, much effort, research, and dedication are required, which is the most critical time. Some policy implications can help us to mitigate the consequences of climate change, especially the most affected sectors like the agriculture sector;

Seasonal variations and cultivation practices

Warming might lengthen the season in frost-prone growing regions (temperate and arctic zones), allowing for longer-maturing seasonal cultivars with better yields (Pfadenhauer 2020 ; Bonacci 2019 ). Extending the planting season may allow additional crops each year; when warming leads to frequent warmer months highs over critical thresholds, a split season with a brief summer fallow may be conceivable for short-period crops such as wheat barley, cereals, and many other vegetable crops. The capacity to prolong the planting season in tropical and subtropical places where the harvest season is constrained by precipitation or agriculture farming occurs after the year may be more limited and dependent on how precipitation patterns vary (Wu et al. 2017 ).

New varieties of crops

The genetic component is comprehensive for many yields, but it is restricted like kiwi fruit for a few. Ali et al. ( 2017 ) investigated how new crops will react to climatic changes (also stated in Mall et al. 2017 ). Hot temperature, drought, insect resistance; salt tolerance; and overall crop production and product quality increases would all be advantageous (Akkari 2016 ). Genetic mapping and engineering can introduce a greater spectrum of features. The adoption of genetically altered cultivars has been slowed, particularly in the early forecasts owing to the complexity in ensuring features are expediently expressed throughout the entire plant, customer concerns, economic profitability, and regulatory impediments (Wirehn 2018 ; Davidson et al. 2016 ).

Changes in management and other input factors

To get the full benefit of the CO 2 would certainly require additional nitrogen and other fertilizers. Nitrogen not consumed by the plants may be excreted into groundwater, discharged into water surface, or emitted from the land, soil nitrous oxide when large doses of fertilizer are sprayed. Increased nitrogen levels in groundwater sources have been related to human chronic illnesses and impact marine ecosystems. Cultivation, grain drying, and other field activities have all been examined in depth in the studies (Barua et al. 2018 ).

The technological and socio-economic adaptation

The policy consequence of the causative conclusion is that as a source of alternative energy, biofuel production is one of the routes that explain oil price volatility separate from international macroeconomic factors. Even though biofuel production has just begun in a few sample nations, there is still a tremendous worldwide need for feedstock to satisfy industrial expansion in China and the USA, which explains the food price relationship to the global oil price. Essentially, oil-exporting countries may create incentives in their economies to increase food production. It may accomplish by giving farmers financing, seedlings, fertilizers, and farming equipment. Because of the declining global oil price and, as a result, their earnings from oil export, oil-producing nations may be unable to subsidize food imports even in the near term. As a result, these countries can boost the agricultural value chain for export. It may be accomplished through R&D and adding value to their food products to increase income by correcting exchange rate misalignment and adverse trade terms. These nations may also diversify their economies away from oil, as dependence on oil exports alone is no longer economically viable given the extreme volatility of global oil prices. Finally, resource-rich and oil-exporting countries can convert to non-food renewable energy sources such as solar, hydro, coal, wind, wave, and tidal energy. By doing so, both world food and oil supplies would be maintained rather than harmed.

IRENA’s modeling work shows that, if a comprehensive policy framework is in place, efforts toward decarbonizing the energy future will benefit economic activity, jobs (outweighing losses in the fossil fuel industry), and welfare. Countries with weak domestic supply chains and a large reliance on fossil fuel income, in particular, must undertake structural reforms to capitalize on the opportunities inherent in the energy transition. Governments continue to give major policy assistance to extract fossil fuels, including tax incentives, financing, direct infrastructure expenditures, exemptions from environmental regulations, and other measures. The majority of major oil and gas producing countries intend to increase output. Some countries intend to cut coal output, while others plan to maintain or expand it. While some nations are beginning to explore and execute policies aimed at a just and equitable transition away from fossil fuel production, these efforts have yet to impact major producing countries’ plans and goals. Verifiable and comparable data on fossil fuel output and assistance from governments and industries are critical to closing the production gap. Governments could increase openness by declaring their production intentions in their climate obligations under the Paris Agreement.

It is firmly believed that achieving the Paris Agreement commitments is doubtlful without undergoing renewable energy transition across the globe (Murshed 2020 ; Zhao et al. 2022 ). Policy instruments play the most important role in determining the degree of investment in renewable energy technology. This study examines the efficacy of various policy strategies in the renewable energy industry of multiple nations. Although its impact is more visible in established renewable energy markets, a renewable portfolio standard is also a useful policy instrument. The cost of producing renewable energy is still greater than other traditional energy sources. Furthermore, government incentives in the R&D sector can foster innovation in this field, resulting in cost reductions in the renewable energy industry. These nations may export their technologies and share their policy experiences by forming networks among their renewable energy-focused organizations. All policy measures aim to reduce production costs while increasing the proportion of renewables to a country’s energy system. Meanwhile, long-term contracts with renewable energy providers, government commitment and control, and the establishment of long-term goals can assist developing nations in deploying renewable energy technology in their energy sector.

Availability of data and material

Data sources and relevant links are provided in the paper to access data.

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School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210094, People’s Republic of China

Kashif Abbass, Huaming Song & Ijaz Younis

Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Chemical Pollution Control and Resources Reuse, School of Environmental and Biological Engineering, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Xiaolingwei 200, Nanjing, 210094, People’s Republic of China

Muhammad Zeeshan Qasim

School of Business and Economics, North South University, Dhaka, 1229, Bangladesh

Muntasir Murshed

Department of Journalism, Media and Communications, Daffodil International University, Dhaka, Bangladesh

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KA: Writing the original manuscript, data collection, data analysis, Study design, Formal analysis, Visualization, Revised draft, Writing-review, and editing. MZQ: Writing the original manuscript, data collection, data analysis, Writing-review, and editing. HS: Contribution to the contextualization of the theme, Conceptualization, Validation, Supervision, literature review, Revised drapt, and writing review and editing. MM: Writing review and editing, compiling the literature review, language editing. HM: Writing review and editing, compiling the literature review, language editing. IY: Contribution to the contextualization of the theme, literature review, and writing review and editing.

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Abbass, K., Qasim, M.Z., Song, H. et al. A review of the global climate change impacts, adaptation, and sustainable mitigation measures. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29 , 42539–42559 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-19718-6

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DOI : https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-19718-6

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Graphic preview: the top ten most cited climate papers.

Analysis: The most ‘cited’ climate change papers

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Robert McSweeney

On Monday, we revealed the results of our survey of scientists in which we asked them to name the “most influential” climate change papers of all time.

The most popular nomination was a seminal paper by Syukuro Manabe and Richard T Wetherald published in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences in 1967.

Now, we turn from the subjective to the objective and look at which are the most “cited” climate change papers. Here, Carbon Brief analyses which papers have had the biggest impact in the academic world, and who wrote them.

Thousands of peer-reviewed academic papers are published about climate change every year. These articles form the bedrock of climate science, underpinning the assessment reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

With so many papers from so many journals, some inevitably sink without trace. But others become the centrepiece of their field or spark new areas of research.

Published papers

There are various databases to search through which list the thousands of academic papers published each year. Amidst options such as Google Scholar and Web of Science , we plumped for Scopus , the world’s largest abstract and citation database of peer-reviewed literature.

In Scopus, we searched for any academic paper with the phrase ‘climate change’ or ‘global warming’ in its title, abstract or keywords. We also tried using just ‘climate’ for the searches, but that produced a very broad range of articles. As we wanted to look at both the top papers and all papers far beyond the top 100, we wouldn’t have manually been able to filter out all the non-climate papers for the analysis. So we went with ‘climate change’ and ‘global warming’, though this does mean that some climate change papers without those terms in the title, abstract or keywords would miss out.

But in response to queries from some climate scientists , we’ve also, for comparison, included the top 10 ‘climate’ papers at the end of the article.

We then limited the search to give us only pure research articles, filtering out other publications such as book chapters, conference papers, review articles and editorials.

The search yields a total of almost 120,000 papers, as of the beginning of June this year. You can see below how the number of published papers about climate change took off during the 2000s.

Total number of climate change papers published, by year. Data from Scopus. Credit: Rosamund Pearce, Carbon Brief

Total number of climate change papers published, by year. Data from Scopus. Credit: Rosamund Pearce, Carbon Brief

As the chart below shows, most of the papers relate to environmental science (25% of papers), earth and planetary science (22%) and agricultural and biological sciences (16%). But the search also unearths papers from social science (8%), medicine (3%) and even dentistry (0%, or 4 papers).

Subject of climate change papers, by topic area. Data from Scopus. Credit: Rosamund Pearce, Carbon Brief

Subject of climate change papers, by topic area. Data from Scopus. Credit: Rosamund Pearce, Carbon Brief

Most prolific

Across all 120,000 papers, the most prolific author is Dr Philippe Ciais from the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat and de l’Environment in Paris. Ciais has 120 published articles on climate change, mostly about the global carbon cycle.

Coming in second is Prof Richard Tol , from the Department of Economics at the University of Sussex , with 113. And third place goes to Prof Josep Penuelas , director of the Global Ecology Unit at the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona . You can see the rest of the top 10 in the graphic below.

Top 10 most prolific authors of climate change papers. Data from Scopus. Credit: Rosamund Pearce, Carbon Brief

Top 10 most prolific authors of climate change papers. Data from Scopus. Credit: Rosamund Pearce, Carbon Brief

But while the number of publications shows how prolific a researcher is, it doesn’t reveal how influential their work is. To do that we need to look at citations.

Citation, citation, citation

In an academic paper, scientists will refer to previous work by other scientists in their field.  This may be to set the scene of their research or acknowledge a method or finding that someone else produced. In doing this they refer to, or ‘cite’, other academic papers.

Databases such as Scopus keep track of how many times each paper has been cited by others. We extracted the 100 most cited climate change papers.

The top paper, with 3,305 citations, is Nature paper, ” A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems “, by Prof Camille Parmesan , at the University of Texas and Plymouth University , and Prof Gary Yohe , from Wesleyan University .

Published in 2003, the paper assessed the global impact of climate change on more than 1,700 biological species, from birds and butterflies to trees and alpine herbs. Parmesan and Yohe found that 279 species are already being affected by climate change, and 74-91% of these changes agree with what is expected from projections.

This paper also featured in our analysis as one of the papers that IPCC authors considered the most influential .

In runners-up spot is an Ecological Modelling paper from 2000, ” Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology “, with 2,746 citations. The paper was written by Prof Antoine Guisan , now of the Université de Lausanne , and Dr Niklaus Zimmerman of the Swiss Federal Research Institute .

And coming in third is ” Extinction risk from climate change “, again published in Nature, with 2,562 citations. This 2004 paper has 19 authors, but the lead was Dr Chris Thomas from the University of Leeds .

Our infographic below shows the top 10 most cited papers on climate change.

Top 10 most cited climate change papers. Data from Scopus. Credit: Rosamund Pearce, Carbon Brief

Top 10 most cited climate change papers. Data from Scopus. Credit: Rosamund Pearce, Carbon Brief

Apart from the Parmesan and Yohe article, just one of our top most influential papers according to IPCC authors makes the top 100 of most cited. This is the Journal of Climate paper “ Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming “, by Prof Isaac Held and Prof Brian Soden , which comes in 34th.

So where are the climatic luminaries of Syukuro Manabe , Guy Callendar and Charles Keeling ? Well, primarily, Scopus doesn’t yet have complete citations for papers published before 1996, so older papers might be underrepresented in the top 100 most cited.

But another reason could be that papers tend to have more citations in recent years because there are more papers on climate change being published, so more opportunities to be cited. This is reflected in the top 100, where most are from 2000 onwards, and none before 1988.

Likewise, very recent papers don’t appear in the top 100 because they haven’t been around long enough to accrue citations. The most recent paper in the top 100 was published in 2011.

Most appearances

So we’ve looked at which authors produce the most papers, but which have appeared most often in the top 100 of cited papers? No researcher appeared more than twice as a lead author, but four appeared as at least a co-author in five papers.

Featuring in this group is, once again, Prof Ciais. But alongside him with five papers are Dr Josep Canadell , the executive director of the Global Carbon Project at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation ( CSIRO ) in Australia, Dr Richard Houghton , a senior scientist at Woods Hole Research Center in Massachusetts, and Prof Colin Prentice , professor of life sciences at Imperial College London .

Beyond the leading four, another two researchers are authors on four papers, and a further ten have authored three. This makes up a top 16 of authors behind the 100 most cited papers, which you can see in the graphic below.

Top 16 authors with the most papers in the top 100 most cited. Data from Scopus. Credit: Rosamund Pearce, Carbon Brief

Top 16 authors with the most papers in the top 100 most cited. Data from Scopus. Credit: Rosamund Pearce, Carbon Brief

Western focus

We also looked at which institutions were behind the top 100 papers. This time we just concentrated on the primary institution that each paper’s lead author was affiliated to.

Two come out top, with six papers each: the University of East Anglia , and the National Center for Atmospheric Research in the US. In total, there are 17 institutions with at least two papers in the top 100.

Looking at the countries where these institutions reside, there is a prominent leaning towards western countries in the northern hemisphere. The US and the UK dominate, with almost three-quarters of the top 100 papers.

Papers in the top 100, by institution. Data from Scopus. Credit: Rosamund Pearce, Carbon Brief

Papers in the top 100, by institution. Data from Scopus. Credit: Rosamund Pearce, Carbon Brief

The rest are sprinkled through Europe, with a few further afield, including Australia, China and Costa Rica.

For comparison, we’ve also mapped which countries all 120,000 papers were authored from. Although note this isn’t a direct comparison, because this data include the locations of all the authors on each paper, not just the lead.

Scopus -map -2

Map of countries with most papers, for the top 100 most cited (top), and for all climate change papers (bottom). Data from Scopus. Credit: Rosamund Pearce, Carbon Brief and © OpenStreetMap contributors © CartoDB.

You can see again that researchers in the US and UK are responsible for the bulk of climate change papers, but, interestingly, China comes in third with 7%. Looking into the data, over a fifth of these papers have an author from the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

In fact, according to Scopus, over 2,200 of all 120,000 papers have at least one author from the Chinese Academy, though just one makes into our top 100 most cited.

Top journals

Finally, we looked at where our top 100 most-cited papers were published. And there were no surprises here. Top of the tree are journal powerhouses  Nature  (27 papers) and  Science  (26), accounting for over half of the top 100, and Nature has six of the top 10. This doesn’t include sister journals, such as  Nature Climate Change  or  Science Advances .

Trailing behind at some distance are  Journal of Climate  (9),  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences  (4) and  Review of Geophysics  (3). No other journal makes more than two appearances in the top 100.

Pie chart showing top 100 climate papers, by journal. Data from Scopus.

Top 100 climate papers, by journal. Data from Scopus. Credit: Rosamund Pearce, Carbon Brief

But do Nature and Science only come out top because they publish the most articles on climate change? According to Scopus, it seems not.

Of all 120,000 papers, most were published by Geophysical Research Letters (3,057 papers), followed by Journal of Climate (2,600) and Climatic Change (2,200). Nature comes in 12th (839) and Science way down in 20th (625).

Here’s the entire Top 100 list if you want to have a look yourself.

Top ‘climate’ papers

As we mentioned earlier, searching for papers on “climate change” or “global warming” may mean overlooking some climate-related papers that don’t necessarily have these terms in their title, abstract or keywords. So, for comparison, below is the top 10 most cited “climate” papers.

Top 10 most cited climate papers. Differences in citation numbers between top 10 climate papers and top 10 climate change papers (see earlier graphic) are because the database was searched on different days. Data from Scopus. Credit: Rosamund Pearce, Carbon Brief

Top 10 most cited climate papers. Differences in citation numbers between top 10 climate papers and top 10 climate change papers (see earlier graphic) are because the database was searched on different days. Data from Scopus. Credit: Rosamund Pearce, Carbon Brief

The most cited “climate” paper is ” The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project “, with a total of 13,905 citations. The paper has 22 authors, but the lead was Prof Eugenia Kalnay , then at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction at NOAA in the US, but now of the University of Maryland .

Published in the journal Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society in 1996, the paper describes the development of a 40-year global climate record, which has been used – and hence cited – in thousands of other climate studies.

Graphic preview: The top ten most cited climate papers.

Updated on 10 July 2015: We amended the top15 most cited authors infographic to add in a scientist we missed out.

  • Analysis: The most 'cited' climate change papers

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Heat waves: a hot topic in climate change research

Werner marx.

1 Max Planck Institute for Solid State Research, Heisenbergstr. 1, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany

Robin Haunschild

Lutz bornmann.

2 Science Policy and Strategy Department, Max Planck Society, Administrative Headquarters, Hofgartenstr. 8, 80539 Munich, Germany

Associated Data

Not applicable.

Research on heat waves (periods of excessively hot weather, which may be accompanied by high humidity) is a newly emerging research topic within the field of climate change research with high relevance for the whole of society. In this study, we analyzed the rapidly growing scientific literature dealing with heat waves. No summarizing overview has been published on this literature hitherto. We developed a suitable search query to retrieve the relevant literature covered by the Web of Science (WoS) as complete as possible and to exclude irrelevant literature ( n  = 8,011 papers). The time evolution of the publications shows that research dealing with heat waves is a highly dynamic research topic, doubling within about 5 years. An analysis of the thematic content reveals the most severe heat wave events within the recent decades (1995 and 2003), the cities and countries/regions affected (USA, Europe, and Australia), and the ecological and medical impacts (drought, urban heat islands, excess hospital admissions, and mortality). An alarming finding is that the limit for survivability may be reached at the end of the twenty-first century in many regions of the world due to the fatal combination of rising temperatures and humidity levels measured as “wet-bulb temperature” (WBT). Risk estimation and future strategies for adaptation to hot weather are major political issues. We identified 104 citation classics, which include fundamental early works of research on heat waves and more recent works (which are characterized by a relatively strong connection to climate change).

Introduction

As a consequence of the well-documented phenomenon of global warming, climate change has become a major research field in the natural and medical sciences, and more recently also in the social and political sciences. The scientific community has contributed extensively to a comprehensive understanding of the earth’s climate system, providing various data and projections on the future climate as well as on the effects and risks of anticipated global warming (IPCC 2014; CSSR 2017; NCA4 2018; and the multitude of references cited therein). During recent decades, climate change has also become a major political, economic, and environmental issue and a central theme in political and public debates.

One consequence of global warming is the increase of extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, floods, cyclones, and wildfires. Some severe heat waves occurring within the last few decades made heat waves a hot topic in climate change research, with “hot” having a dual meaning: high temperature and high scientific activity. “More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the twenty-first century” is the title of a highly cited paper published 2004 in Science (Meehl and Tebaldi 2004 ). This title summarizes in short what most climate researchers anticipate for the future. But what are heat waves (formerly also referred to as “heatwaves”)? In general, a heat wave is a period of excessively hot weather, which may be accompanied by high humidity. Since heat waves vary according to region, there is no universal definition, but only definitions relative to the usual weather in the area and relative to normal temperatures for the season. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) defines a heat wave as 5 or more consecutive days of prolonged heat in which the daily maximum temperature is higher than the average maximum temperature by 5 °C (9 °F) or more ( https://www.britannica.com/science/heat-wave-meteorology ).

Europe, for example, has suffered from a series of intense heat waves since the beginning of the twenty-first century. According to the World Health Organization (WHO) and various national reports, the extreme 2003 heat wave caused about 70,000 excess deaths, primarily in France and Italy. The 2010 heat wave in Russia caused extensive crop loss, numerous wildfires, and about 55,000 excess deaths (many in the city of Moscow). Heat waves typically occur when high pressure systems become stationary and the winds on their rear side continuously pump hot and humid air northeastward, resulting in extreme weather conditions. The more intense and more frequently occurring heat waves cannot be explained solely by natural climate variations and without human-made climate change (IPCC 2014; CSSR 2017; NCA4 2018). Scientists discuss a weakening of the polar jet stream caused by global warming as a possible reason for an increasing probability for the occurrence of stationary weather, resulting in heavy rain falls or heat waves (Broennimann et al. 2009 ; Coumou et al. 2015 ; Mann 2019 ). This jet stream is one of the most important factors for the weather in the middle latitude regions of North America, Europe, and Asia.

Until the end of the twentieth century, heat waves were predominantly seen as a recurrent meteorological fact with major attention to drought, being almost independent from human activities and unpredictable like earthquakes. However, since about 1950, distinct changes in extreme climate and weather events have been increasingly observed. Meanwhile, climate change research has revealed that these changes are clearly linked to the human influence on the content of greenhouse gases in the earth’s atmosphere. Climate-related extremes, such as heat waves, droughts, floods, cyclones, and wildfires, reveal significant vulnerability to climate change as a result of global warming.

In recent years, research on heat waves has been established as an emerging research topic within the large field of current climate change research. Bibliometric analyses are very suitable in order to have a systematic and quantitative overview of the literature that can be assigned to an emerging topic such as research dealing with heat waves (e.g., Haunschild et al. 2016 ). No summarizing overview on the entire body of heat wave literature has been published until now. However, a bibliometric analysis of research on urban heat islands as a more specific topic in connection with heat waves has been performed (Huang and Lu 2018 ).

In this study, we analyzed the publications dealing with heat waves using appropriate bibliometric methods and tools. First, we determined the amount and time evolution of the scientific literature dealing with heat waves. The countries contributing the most papers are presented. Second, we analyzed the thematic content of the publications via keywords assigned by the WoS. Third, we identified the most important (influential) publications (and also the historical roots). We identified 104 citation classics, which include fundamental early works and more recent works with a stronger connection to climate change.

Heat waves as a research topic

The status of the current knowledge on climate change is summarized in the Synthesis Report of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (IPCC 2014, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/ ). This panel is the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change. The Synthesis Report is based on the reports of the three IPCC Working Groups , including relevant Special Reports . In its Summary for Policymakers , it provides an integrated view of climate change as the final part of the Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC 2014, https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf ).

In the chapter Extreme Events , it is stated that “changes in many extreme weather and climate events have been observed since about 1950. Some of these changes have been linked to human influences, including a decrease in cold temperature extremes, an increase in warm temperature extremes, an increase in extreme high sea levels and an increase in the number of heavy precipitation events in a number of regions … It is very likely that the number of cold days and nights has decreased and the number of warm days and nights has increased on the global scale. It is likely that the frequency of heat waves has increased in large parts of Europe, Asia and Australia. It is very likely that human influence has contributed to the observed global scale changes in the frequency and intensity of daily temperature extremes since the mid-twentieth century. It is likely that human influence has more than doubled the probability of occurrence of heat waves in some locations” (p. 7–8). Under Projected Changes , the document summarizes as follows: “Surface temperature is projected to rise over the twenty-first century under all assessed emission scenarios. It is very likely that heat waves will occur more often and last longer, and that extreme precipitation events will become more intense and frequent in many regions” (p. 10).

With regard to the USA, the Climate Science Special Report of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (CSSR 2017, https://science2017.globalchange.gov/ ) mentions quite similar observations and states unambiguously in its Fourth National Climate Assessment (Volume I) report ( https://science2017.globalchange.gov/downloads/CSSR2017_FullReport.pdf ) under Observed Changes in Extremes that “the frequency of cold waves has decreased since the early 1900s, and the frequency of heat waves has increased since the mid-1960s (very high confidence). The frequency and intensity of extreme heat and heavy precipitation events are increasing in most continental regions of the world (very high confidence). These trends are consistent with expected physical responses to a warming climate [p. 19]. Heavy precipitation events in most parts of the United States have increased in both intensity and frequency since 1901 (high confidence) [p. 20]. There are important regional differences in trends, with the largest increases occurring in the northeastern United States (high confidence). Recent droughts and associated heat waves have reached record intensity in some regions of the United States … (very high confidence) [p. 21]. Confidence in attribution findings of anthropogenic influence is greatest for extreme events that are related to an aspect of temperature” (p. 123).

Among the key findings in the chapter on temperature changes in the USA, the report states that “there have been marked changes in temperature extremes across the contiguous United States. The frequency of cold waves has decreased since the early 1900s, and the frequency of heat waves has increased since the mid-1960s (very high confidence). Extreme temperatures in the contiguous United States are projected to increase even more than average temperatures. The temperatures of extremely cold days and extremely warm days are both expected to increase. Cold waves are projected to become less intense while heat waves will become more intense (very high confidence) [p. 185]. Most of this methodology as applied to extreme weather and climate event attribution, has evolved since the European heat wave study of Stott et al.” (p. 128).

Heat waves are also discussed in the Fourth National Climate Assessment (Volume II) report (NCA4 2018, https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/ ). The Report-in-Brief ( https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/downloads/NCA4_Report-in-Brief.pdf ) for example states: “More frequent and severe heat waves and other extreme events in many parts of the United States are expected [p. 38]. Heat waves and heavy rainfalls are expected to increase in frequency and intensity [p. 93]. The season length of heat waves in many U.S. cities has increased by over 40 days since the 1960s [p. 30]. Cities across the Southeast are experiencing more and longer summer heat waves [p. 123]. Exposure to hotter temperatures and heat waves already leads to heat-associated deaths in Arizona and California. Mortality risk during a heat wave is amplified on days with high levels of ground-level ozone or particulate air pollution” (p. 150).

In summary, climate change research expects more frequent and more severe heat wave events as a consequence of global warming. It is likely that the more frequent and longer lasting heat waves will significantly increase excess mortality, particularly in urban regions with high air pollution. Therefore, research around heat waves will become increasingly important and is much more than a temporary research fashion.

Methodology

Dataset used.

This analysis is based on the relevant literature retrieved from the following databases accessible under the Web of Science (WoS) of Clarivate Analytics: Web of Science Core Collection: Citation Indexes, Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Arts & Humanities Citation Index (A&HCI), Conference Proceedings Citation Index—Science (CPCI-S), Conference Proceedings Citation Index—Social Science & Humanities (CPCI-SSH), Book Citation Index—Science (BKCI-S), Book Citation Index—Social Sciences & Humanities (BKCI-SSH), Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI).

We applied the search query given in Appendix 1 to cover the relevant literature as completely as possible and to exclude irrelevant literature. We practiced an iterative query optimization by identifying and excluding the WoS subject categories with most of the non-relevant papers. For example, heat waves are also mentioned in the field of materials science but have nothing to do with climate and weather phenomena. Unfortunately, WoS obviously assigned some heat wave papers related to climate to materials science-related subject categories. Therefore, these subject categories were not excluded. By excluding the other non-relevant subject categories, 597 out of 8,568 papers have been removed, resulting in a preliminary publication set of 7,971 papers (#2 of the search query). But this is no safe method, since the excluded categories may well include some relevant papers. Therefore, we have combined these 597 papers with search terms related to climate or weather and retrieved 62 relevant papers in addition, which we added to our preliminary paper subset, eventually receiving 8,033 publications (#3 to #5 of the search query).

Commonly, publication sets for bibliometric analyses are limited to articles, reviews, and conference proceedings as the most relevant document types and are restricted to complete publication years. In this study, however, we have included all relevant WoS document types for a better literature coverage of the research topic analyzed. For example, conference meetings and early access papers may well be interesting for the content analysis of the literature under study. Such literature often anticipates important results, which are published later as regular articles. Furthermore, we have included the literature until the date of search for considering the recent rapid growth of the field. Our search retrieved a final publication set of 8,011 papers indexed in WoS until the date of search (July 1, 2021) and dealing with heat waves (#6 of the search query). We have combined this publication set with climate change-related search terms from a well-proven search query (Haunschild et al. 2016 ) resulting in 4,588 papers dealing with heat waves in connection with climate change or global warming (# 11 of the search query). Also, we have selected a subset of 2,373 papers dealing with heat waves and mortality (#13 of the search query). The complete WoS search query is given in Appendix 1.

The final publication set of 8,011 papers dealing with heat waves still contains some non-relevant papers primarily published during the first half of the twentieth century, such as some Nature papers within the WoS category Multidisciplinary Sciences . Since these papers are assigned only to this broad subject category and have no abstracts and no keywords included, they cannot be excluded using the WoS search and refinement functions. We do not expect any bias through these papers, because their keywords do not appear in our maps. Also, they normally contain very few (if any) cited references, which could bias/impact our reference analysis.

We used the VOSviewer software (Van Eck and Waltman 2010 ) to map co-authorship with regard to the countries of authors (88 countries considered) of the papers dealing with heat waves ( www.vosviewer.com ). The map of the cooperating countries presented is based on the number of joint publications. The distance between two nodes is proportionate to the number of co-authored papers. Hence, largely cooperating countries are positioned closer to each other. The size of the nodes is proportionate to the number of papers published by authors of the specific countries.

The method that we used for revealing the thematic content of the publication set retrieved from the WoS is based on the analysis of keywords. For better standardization, we chose the keywords allocated by the database producer (keywords plus) rather than the author keywords. We also used the VOSviewer for mapping the thematic content of the 104 key papers selected by reference analysis. This map is also based on keywords plus.

The term maps (keywords plus) are based on co-occurrence for positioning the nodes on the maps. The distance between two nodes is proportionate to the co-occurrence of the terms. The size of the nodes is proportionate to the number of papers with a specific keyword. The nodes on the map are assigned by VOSviewer to clusters based on a specific cluster algorithm (the clusters are highlighted in different colors). These clusters identify closely related (frequently co-occurring) nodes, where each node is assigned to only one cluster.

Reference Publication Year Spectroscopy

A bibliometric method called “Reference Publication Year Spectroscopy” (RPYS, Marx et al. 2014 ) in combination with the tool CRExplorer ( http://www.crexplorer.net , Thor et al. 2016a , b ) has proven useful for exploring the cited references within a specific publication set, in order to detect the most important publications of the relevant research field (and also the historical roots). In recent years, several studies have been published, in which the RPYS method was basically described and applied (Marx et al. 2014 ; Marx and Bornmann 2016 ; Comins and Hussey 2015 ). In previous studies, Marx et al. have analyzed the roots of research on global warming (Marx et al. 2017a ), the emergence of climate change research in combination with viticulture (Marx et al. 2017b ), and tea production (Marx et al. 2017c ) from a quantitative (bibliometric) perspective. In this study, we determined which references have been most frequently cited by the papers dealing with heat waves.

RPYS is based on the assumption that peers produce a useful database by their publications, in particular by the references cited therein. This database can be analyzed statistically with regard to the works most important for their specific research field. Whereas individual scientists judge their research field more or less subjectively, the overall community can deliver a more objective picture (based on the principle of “the wisdom of the crowds”). The peers effectively “vote” via their cited references on which works turned out to be most important for their research field (Bornmann and Marx 2013 ). RPYS implies a normalization of citation counts (here: reference counts) with regard to the research area and the time of publication, which both impact the probability to be cited frequently. Basically, the citing and cited papers analyzed were published in the same research field and the reference counts are compared with each other only within the same publication year.

RPYS relies on the following observation: the analysis of the publication years of the references cited by all the papers in a specific research topic shows that publication years are not equally represented. Some years occur particularly frequently among the cited references. Such years appear as distinct peaks in the distribution of the reference publication years (i.e., the RPYS spectrogram). The pronounced peaks are frequently based on a few references that are more frequently cited than other references published in the same year. The frequently cited references are—as a rule—of specific significance to the research topic in question (here: heat waves) and the earlier references among them represent its origins and intellectual roots (Marx et al. 2014 ).

The RPYS changes the perspective of citation analysis from a times cited to a cited reference analysis (Marx and Bornmann 2016 ). RPYS does not identify the most highly cited papers of the publication set being studied (as is usually done by bibliometric analyses in research evaluation). RPYS aims to mirror the knowledge base of research (here: on heat waves).

With time, the body of scientific literature of many research fields is growing rapidly, particularly in climate change research (Haunschild et al. 2016 ). The growth rate of highly dynamic research topics such as research related to heat waves is even larger. As a consequence, the number of potentially citable papers is growing substantially. Toward the present, the peaks of individual publications lie over a broad continuum of newer publications and are less numerous and less pronounced. Due to the many publications cited in the more recent years, the proportion of individual highly cited publications in specific reference publication years falls steadily. Therefore, the distinct peaks in an RPYS spectrogram reveal only the most highly cited papers, in particular the earlier references comprising the historical roots. Further inspection and establishing a more entire and representative list of highly cited works requires consulting the reference table provided by the CRExplorer. The most important references within a specific reference publication year can be identified by sorting the cited references according to the reference publication year (RPY) and subsequently according to the number of cited references (N_CR) in a particular publication year.

The selection of important references in RPYS requires the consideration of two opposing trends: (1) the strongly growing number of references per reference publication year and (2) the fall off near present due to the fact that the newest papers had not sufficient time to accumulate higher citation counts. Therefore, we decided to set different limits for the minimum number of cited references for different periods of reference publication years (1950–1999: N_CR ≥ 50, 2000–2014: N_CR ≥ 150, 2015–2020: N_CR ≥ 100). This is somewhat arbitrary, but is helpful in order to adapt and limit the number of cited references to be presented and discussed.

In order to apply RPYS, all cited references ( n  = 408,247) of 216,932 unique reference variants have been imported from the papers of our publication set on heat waves ( n  = 8,011). The cited reference publication years range from 1473 to 2021. We removed all references (297 different cited reference variants) with reference publication years prior to 1900. Due to the very low output of heat wave-related papers published before 1990, no relevant literature published already in the nineteenth century can be expected. Also, global warming was no issue before 1900 since the Little Ice Age (a medieval cold period) lasted until the nineteenth century. The references were sorted according to RPY and N_CR for further inspection.

The CRExplorer offers the possibility to cluster and merge variants of the same cited reference (Thor et al. 2016a , b ). We clustered and merged the associated reference variants in our dataset (which are mainly caused by misspelled references) using the corresponding CRExplorer module, clustering the reference variants via volume and page numbers and subsequently merging aggregated 374 cited references (for more information on using the CRExplorer see “guide and datasets” at www.crexplorer.net ).

After clustering and merging, we applied a further cutback: to focus the RPYS on the most pronounced peaks, we removed all references ( n  = 212,324) with reference counts below 10 (resulting in a final number of 3,937 cited references) for the detection of the most frequently cited works. A minimum reference count of 10 has proved to be reasonable, in particular for early references (Marx et al. 2014 ). The cited reference publication years now range from 1932 to 2020.

In this study, we have considered all relevant WoS document types for a preferably comprehensive coverage of the literature of the research topic analyzed. The vast majority of the papers of our publication set, however, have been assigned to the document types “article” ( n  = 6.738, 84.1%), “proceedings paper” ( n  = 485, 6.1%), and “review” ( n  = 395 papers, 4.9%). Note that some papers belong to more than one document type.

Time evolution of literature

In Fig.  1 , the time evolution between 1990 and 2020 of the publications dealing with heat waves is shown (there are only 109 pre-1990 publications dealing with heat waves and covered by the WoS).

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Time evolution of the overall number of heat wave publications, of heat wave publications in connection with climate change, and of heat wave publications in connection with mortality, each between 1990 and 2020. For comparison, the overall number of publications (scaled down) in the field of climate change research and the total number of publications covered by the WoS database (scaled down, too) are included

According to Fig.  1 , research dealing with heat waves is a highly dynamic research topic, currently doubling within about 5 years. The number of papers published per year shows a strong increase: since around 2000, the publication output increased by a factor of more than thirty, whereas in the same period, the overall number of papers covered by the WoS increased only by a factor of around three. Also, the portion of heat wave papers dealing with climate change increased substantially: from 16.1 in the period 1990–1999 to 25.7% in 2000, reaching 66.9% in 2020. The distinct decrease of the overall number of papers covered by the WoS between 2019 and 2020 might be a result of the Covid-19 pandemic.

With regard to the various impacts of heat waves, excess mortality is one of the most frequently analyzed and discussed issues in the scientific literature (see below). Whereas the subject specific literature on heat waves increased from 2000 to 2020 by a factor of 33.6, literature on heat waves dealing with mortality increased from 2000 to 2020 by a factor of 51.5. The dynamics of the research topic dealing with heat waves is mirrored by the WoS Citation Report , which shows the time evolution of the overall citation impact of the papers of the publication set (not presented). The citation report curve shows no notable citation impact before 2005, corresponding to the increase of the publication rate since about 2003 as shown in Fig.  1 .

Countries of authors

In Table ​ Table1, 1 , the number of papers assigned to the countries of authors with more than 100 publications dealing with heat waves is presented, showing the national part of research activities on this research topic. For comparative purposes, the percentage of overall papers in WoS of each country is shown. As a comparison with the overall WoS, we only considered WoS papers published between 2000 and 2020, because the heat wave literature started to grow substantially around 2000.

Top countries of authors with more than 100 papers dealing with heat waves up to the date of the search

The country-specific percentages from Table ​ Table1 1 are visualized in Fig.  2 . Selected countries are labeled. Countries with a higher relative percentage of more than two percentage points in heat wave research than in WoS overall output are marked blue (blue circle). Countries with a relative percentage at least twice as high in heat wave research than in overall WoS output are marked green (green cross), whereas countries with a relative percentage at most half as much in heat wave research than in overall WoS output are marked with a yellow cross. Only Japan has a much lower output in heat wave research than in WoS overall output, as indicated by the red circle and yellow cross. Most countries are clustered around the bisecting line and are marked gray (gray circle). China and the USA are outside of the plot region. Both countries are rather close to the bisecting line. Some European countries show a much larger activity in heat wave research than in overall WoS output. Australia shows the largest difference and ratio in output percentages as shown by the blue circle and green cross.

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Publication percentages of countries in Table ​ Table1. 1 . Countries with large deviations between heat wave output and overall WoS output are labeled. Countries with an absolute percentage of more than two percentage points higher (lower) in heat wave research than in overall WoS output are marked blue (red). Countries with a relative percentage at least twice as high (at most half as much) in heat wave research than in overall WoS output are marked green (yellow)

The results mainly follow the expectations of such bibliometric analyses, with one distinct exception: Australia increasingly suffers from extreme heat waves and is comparatively active in heat wave research—compared with its proportion of scientific papers in general. The growth factor of the Australian publication output since 2010 is 8.5, compared to 5.3 for the USA and 3.3 for Germany.

Figure  3 shows the co-authorship network with regard to the countries of authors of the papers dealing with heat waves using the VOSviewer software.

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Co-authorship overlay map with regard to the countries of authors and their average publication years from the 8,011 papers dealing with heat waves. The minimum number of co-authored publications of a country is 5; papers with more than 25 contributing countries are neglected; of the 135 countries, 89 meet the threshold, and 88 out of 89 countries are connected and are considered (one country, Armenia, that is disconnected from the network has been removed). The co-authorship network of a single country can be depicted by clicking on the corresponding node in the interactive map. Readers interested in an in-depth analysis can use VOSviewer interactively and zoom into the map via the following URL: https://tinyurl.com/3ywkwv8t

According to Fig.  3 and in accordance with Table ​ Table1, 1 , the USA is most productive in heat wave research. This is not unexpected, because the US publication output is at the top for most research fields. However, this aside, the USA has been heavily affected by heat wave events and is leading with regard to the emergence of the topic. Australia appears as another major player and is strongly connected with the US publications within the co-authorship network and thus appears as a large node near the US node in the map. Next, the leading European countries England, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain appear.

The overlay version of the map includes the time evolution of the research activity in the form of coloring of the nodes. The map shows the mean publication year of the publications for each specific author country. As a consequence, the time span of the mean publication years ranges only from 2014 to 2018. Nevertheless, the early activity in France and the USA and the comparatively recent activity in Australia and China, with the European countries in between, become clearly visible.

Topics of the heat wave literature

Figure  4 shows the keywords (keywords plus) map for revealing the thematic content of our publication set using the VOSviewer software. This analysis is based on the complete publication set ( n  = 8,011). The minimum number of occurrences of keywords is 10; of the 10,964 keywords, 718 keywords met the threshold. For each of the 718 keywords, the total strength of the co-occurrence links with other keywords was calculated. The keywords with the greatest total link strength were selected for presentation in the map.

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Co-occurrence network map of the keywords plus from the 8,011 papers dealing with heat waves for a rough analysis of the thematic content. The minimum number of occurrences of keywords is 10; of the 10,964 keywords, 718 meet the threshold. Readers interested in an in-depth analysis can use VOSviewer interactively and zoom into the map via the following URL: https://tinyurl.com/enrdbw

According to Fig.  4 , the major keywords are the following: climate change, temperature, mortality, impact, heat waves (searched), and variability. The colored clusters identify closely related (frequently co-occurring) nodes. The keywords marked red roughly originate from fundamental climate change research focused on the hydrological cycle (particularly on drought), the keywords of the green cluster are around heat waves and moisture or precipitation, the keywords marked blue result from research concerning impacts of heat waves on health, the keywords marked yellow are focused on the various other impacts of heat waves, and the keywords of the magenta cluster are around adaptation and vulnerability in connection with heat waves.

The clustering by the VOSviewer algorithm provides basic categorizations, but many related keywords also appear in different clusters. For example, severe heat wave events are marked in different colors. For a better overview of the thematic content of the publications dealing with heat waves, we have assigned the keywords of Fig.  4 (with a minimum number of occurrences of 50) to ten subject categories (each arranged in the order of occurrence):

  • Countries/regions: United-States, Europe, France, China, Pacific, Australia, London, England
  • Cities: cities, city, US cities, Chicago, communities
  • Events: 2003 heat-wave, 1995 heat-wave
  • Impacts: impact, impacts, air-pollution, drought, soil-moisture, exposure, heat-island, urban, islands, photosynthesis, pollution, heat-island, air-quality, environment, precipitation extremes, biodiversity, emissions
  • Politics: risk, responses, vulnerability, adaptation, management, mitigation, risk-factors, scenarios
  • Biology: vegetation, forest, diversity, stomatal conductance
  • Medicine: mortality, health, stress, deaths, morbidity, hospital admissions, public-health, thermal comfort, population, heat, sensitivity, human health, disease, excess mortality, heat-stress, heat-related mortality, comfort, behavior, death, stroke
  • Climate research: climate change, temperature, climate, model, simulation, energy, projections, simulations, cmip5, ozone, el-nino, parametrization, elevated CO 2 , models, climate variability, carbon, carbon-dioxide
  • Meteorology: heat waves, variability, precipitation, summer, heat-wave, weather, ambient-temperature, waves, extremes, wave, cold, water, rainfall, circulation, heat, air-temperature, extreme heat, climate extremes, heatwaves, temperature extremes, temperatures, temperature variability, high-temperature, ocean, extreme temperatures, atmospheric circulation, interannual variability, sea-surface temperature, oscillation, surface temperature, surface
  • Broader terms (multi-meaning): trends, events, patterns, growth, performance, time-series, indexes, system, dynamics, association, index, tolerance, productivity, ensemble, resilience, increase, quality, prediction, frequency, particulate matter, future, framework, 20 th -century, time, reanalysis, systems

Although allocated by the database provider, the keywords are not coherent. For example, the same keyword may appear as singular or plural, and complex keywords are written with and without hyphens.

In order to compare the thematic content of the complete publication set with the earlier literature on heat waves, we have analyzed the pre-2000 publications ( n  = 297) separately. Figure  5 shows the keywords (keywords plus) map for revealing the thematic content of the pre-2000 papers.

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Co-occurrence network map of the keywords plus from the 297 pre-2000 papers dealing with heat waves for a rough analysis of the thematic content. The minimum number of occurrences of keywords is 1; of the 389 keywords, 277 keywords are connected, and all items are shown. Readers interested in an in-depth analysis can use VOSviewer interactively and zoom into the map via the following URL: https://tinyurl.com/u2zzr399

The major nodes in Fig.  5 are heat waves (searched), temperature, United States, and mortality, with climate change appearing only as a smaller node here. Obviously, the connection between heat waves and climate change was not yet pronounced, which can also be seen from Fig.  1 . Compared with Fig.  4 , the thematic content of the clusters is less clear and the clusters presented in Fig.  5 can hardly be assigned to specific research areas. For a better overview of the thematic content of the early publications dealing with heat waves, we have assigned the connected keywords of Fig.  5 to seven subject categories:

  • Countries/regions: United-States, Great-Plains
  • Cities: St-Louis, Athens, Chicago
  • Events: 1980 heat-wave, 1995 heat-wave
  • Impacts: impacts, responses, drought, precipitation, comfort, sultriness
  • Climate research: climate, climate change, model, temperature, variability
  • Medicine: cardiovascular deaths, mortality, air pollution
  • Meteorology: atmospheric flow, weather, heat, humidity index

Important publications

Figures  6 – 8 show the results of the RPYS analysis performed with the CRExplorer and present the distribution of the number of cited references across the reference publication years. Figure  6 shows the RPYS spectrogram of the full range of reference publication years since 1925. Figure  7 presents the spectrogram for the reference publication year period 1950–2000 for better resolving the historical roots. Figure  8 shows the spectrogram for the period 2000–2020, comprising the cited references from the bulk of the publication set analyzed.

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Annual distribution of cited references throughout the time period 1925–2020, which have been cited in heat wave-related papers (published between 1964 and 2020). Only references with a minimum reference count of 10 are considered

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Annual distribution of cited references throughout the time period 1950–2000, which have been cited in heat wave-related papers (published between 1972 and 2020). Only references with a minimum reference count of 10 are considered

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Annual distribution of cited references throughout the time period 2000–2020, which have been cited in heat wave-related papers (published between 2000 and 2020). Only references with a minimum reference count of 10 are considered

The gray bars (Fig.  6 ) and red lines (Figs. ​ (Figs.7 7 – 8 ) in the graphs visualize the number of cited references per reference publication year. In order to identify those publication years with significantly more cited references than other years, the (absolute) deviation of the number of cited references in each year from the median of the number of cited references in the two previous, the current, and the two following years (t − 2; t − 1; t; t + 1; t + 2) is also visualized (blue lines). This deviation from the 5-year median provides a curve smoother than the one in terms of absolute numbers. We inspected both curves for the identification of the peak papers.

Which papers are most important for the scientific community performing research on heat waves? We use the number of cited references (N_CR) as a measure of the citation impact within the topic-specific literature of our publication set. N_CR should not be confused with the overall number of citations of the papers as given by the WoS citation counts (times cited). These citation counts are based on all citing papers covered by the complete database (rather than a topic-specific publication set) and are usually much higher.

Applying the selection criteria mentioned above (minimum number of cited references between 50 and 150 in three different periods), 104 references have been selected as key papers (important papers most frequently referenced within the research topic analyzed) and are presented in Table ​ Table2 2 in Appendix 2. The peak papers corresponding to reference publication years below about 2000 can be seen as the historical roots of the research topic analyzed. Since around 2000, the number of references with the same publication year becomes increasingly numerous, usually with more than one highly referenced (cited) paper at the top. Although there are comparatively fewer distinct peaks visible in the RPYS spectrogram of Fig.  8 , the most frequently referenced papers can easily be identified via the CRE reference listing. Depending on the specific skills and needs (i.e., the expert knowledge and the intended depth of the analysis), the number of top-referenced papers considered key papers can be defined individually.

Listing of the key papers ( n  = 104) revealed by RPYS via CRE ( RPY reference publication year, N_CR number of cited references, Title title of the cited reference, DOI allows easily to retrieve the full paper via WoS or Internet)

*N_TOP10 > 9; the N_TOP10 indicator is the number of reference publication years in which a focal cited reference belongs to the 10% most referenced publications.

Table ​ Table2 2 lists the first authors and titles of the 104 key papers selected, their number of cited references (N_CR), and the DOIs for easy access. Some N_CR values are marked by an asterisk, indicating a high value of the N_TOP10 indicator implemented in the CRExplorer. The N_TOP10 indicator value is the number of reference publication years in which a focal cited reference belongs to the 10% most referenced publications. In the case of about half of the cited references in Table ​ Table2 2 ( n  = 58), the N_TOP10 value exceeded a value of 9. The three highest values in our dataset are 24, 21, and 20.

Out of the 104 key papers from Table ​ Table2, 2 , 101 have a DOI of which we found 101 papers in the WoS. Three papers have no DOI but could be retrieved from WoS. The altogether 104 papers were exported and their keywords (keywords plus) were displayed in Fig.  9 for revealing the thematic content of the key papers from the RPYS analysis at a glance.

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Co-occurrence network map of the keywords plus of the 104 key papers dealing with heat waves selected applying RPYS via CRE software and listed in Table ​ Table2. 2 . The minimum number of occurrences of keywords is 2; of the 310 keywords, 91 meet the threshold. Readers interested in an in-depth analysis can use VOSviewer interactively and zoom into the map via the following URL: https://tinyurl.com/4vwpc4t2

Overall, the keywords mapped in Fig.  9 are rather similar to the keywords presented in Fig.  4 . Besides climate change, temperature, weather, and air-pollution, the keywords deaths, health, mortality, and United-States appear as the most pronounced terms.

The key papers presented in Table ​ Table2 2 can be categorized as follows: (1) papers dealing with specific heat wave events, (2) the impact of heat waves on human health, (3) heat wave-related excess mortality and implications for prevention, (4) the interaction between air pollution and high temperature, (5) circulation pattern and the meteorological basis, (6) future perspectives and risks, and (7) climate models, indicators, and statistics.

Today, the hypothesis of a human-induced climate change is no longer abstract but has become a clear fact, at least for the vast majority of the scientific community (IPCC 2014; CSSR 2017; NCA4 2018; and the multitude of references cited therein). The consequences of a warmer climate are already obvious. The rapidly growing knowledge regarding the earth’s climate system has revealed the connection between global warming and extreme weather events. Heat waves impact people directly and tangibly and many people are pushing for political actions. Research on heat waves came up with the occurrence of some severe events in the second half of the twentieth century and was much stimulated by the more numerous, more intense, and longer lasting heat waves that have occurred since the beginning of the twenty-first century.

As already mentioned in Sect.  1 , the more intense and more frequently occurring heat waves cannot be explained solely by natural climate variations but only with human-made climate change. As a consequence, research on heat waves has become embedded into meteorology and climate change research and has aimed to understand the specific connection with global warming. Scientists discuss a weakening of the polar jet stream as a possible reason for an increasing probability for the occurrence of heat waves (e.g., Broennimann et al. 2009 ; Coumou et al. 2015 ; Mann 2019 ). Climate models are used for projections of temperature and rainfall variability in the future, based on various scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. As a result, the corresponding keywords appear in the maps of Figs. ​ Figs.4 4 and ​ and9. 9 . Also, the application of statistics plays a major role in the papers of our publication set; some of the most highly referenced (early) papers in Table ​ Table2 2 primarily deal with statistical methods. These methods provide the basis for research on heat waves.

Our analysis shows that research on heat waves has become extremely important in the medical area, since severe heat waves have caused significant excess mortality (e.g., Kalkstein and Davis 1989 ; Fouillet et al. 2006 ; Anderson and Bell 2009 , 2011 ). The most alarming is that the limit for survivability may be reached at the end of the twenty-first century in many regions of the world due to the fatal combination of rising temperatures and humidity levels (e.g., Pal and Eltahir 2016 ; Im et al. 2017 ; Kang and Eltahir 2018 ). The combination of heat and humidity is measured as the “wet-bulb temperature” (WBT), which is the lowest temperature that can be reached under current ambient conditions by the evaporation of water. At 100% relative humidity, the wet-bulb temperature is equal to the air temperature and is different at lower humidity levels. For example, an ambient temperature of 46 °C and a relative humidity of 50% correspond to 35 °C WBT, which is the upper limit that can kill even healthy people within hours. By now, the limit of survivability has almost been reached in some places. However, if global warming is not seriously tackled, deadly heat waves are anticipated for many regions that have contributed little to climate change.

According to high-resolution climate change simulations, North China and South Asia are particularly at risk, because the annual monsoon brings hot and humid air to these regions (Im et al. 2017 ; Kang and Eltahir 2018 ). The fertile plain of North China has experienced vast expansion of irrigated agriculture, which enhances the intensity of heat waves. South Asia, a region inhabited by about one-fifth of the global human population, is likely to approach the critical threshold by the late twenty-first century, if greenhouse gas emissions are not lowered significantly. In particular, the densely populated agricultural regions of the Ganges and Indus river basins are likely to be affected by extreme future heat waves. Also, the Arabic-speaking desert countries of the Gulf Region in the Middle East and the French-speaking parts of Africa are expected to suffer from heat waves beyond the limit of human survival. But to date, only 12 papers have been published on heat waves in connection with wet-bulb temperature (#15 of the search query); no paper was published before 2016. Some papers report excess hospital admissions during heat wave events (e.g., Semenza et al. 1999 ; Knowlton et al. 2009 ), with the danger of a temporary capacity overload of local medical systems in the future. Presumably, this will be an increasingly important issue in the future, when more and larger urban areas are affected by heat waves beyond the limit of human survival indicated by wet-bulb temperatures above 35° C.

The importance of heat waves for the medical area is underlined by the large portion of papers discussing excess hospital admissions and excess mortality during intense heat wave events, particularly in urban areas with a high population density. As was the case during the boom phase of the Covid-19 pandemic, local medical health care systems may become overstressed by long-lasting heat wave events and thus adaptation strategies are presented and discussed. Finally, the analysis of the keywords in this study reveals the connection of heat wave events with air pollution in urban regions. There seems to be evidence of an interaction between air pollution and high temperatures in the causation of excess mortality (e.g., Katsouyanni et al. 1993 ). Two more recent papers discuss the global risk of deadly heat (Mora et al. 2017 ) and the dramatically increasing chance of extremely hot summers since the 2003 European heat wave (Christidis et al. 2015 ).

Another important topic of the heat wave papers is related to the consequences for agriculture and forestry. Reduced precipitation and soil moisture result in crop failure and put food supplies at risk. Unfortunately, large regions of the world that contribute least to the emission of greenhouse gases are affected most by drought, poor harvests, and hunger. Some more recent papers discuss the increasing probability of marine heat waves (Oliver et al. 2018 ) and the consequences for the marine ecosystem (Smale et al. 2019 ).

The results of this study should be interpreted in terms of its limitations:

  • We tried to include in our bibliometric analyses all relevant heat wave papers covered by the database. Our long-standing experience in professional information retrieval has shown, however, that it is sheer impossible to get complete and clean results by search queries against the backdrop of the search functions provided by literature databases like WoS or others. Also, the transition from relevant to non-relevant literature is blurred and is a question of the specific needs. In this study, we used bibliometric methods that are relatively robust with regard to the completeness and precision of the publication sets analyzed. For example, it is an advantage of RPYS that a comparatively small portion of relevant publications (i.e., an incomplete publication set) contains a large amount of the relevant literature as cited references. The number of cited references is indeed lowered as a consequence of an incomplete publication set. However, this does not significantly affect the results, since the reference counts are only used as a relative measure within specific publication years.

Two other limitations of this study refer to the RPYS of the heat wave paper set:

  • There are numerous rather highly cited references retrieved by RPYS via CRExplorer but not considered in the listing of Table ​ Table2 2 due to the selection criteria applied. Many of these non-selected papers have N_CR values just below the limits that we have set. Therefore, papers not included in our listing are not per se qualified as much less important or even unimportant.
  • In the interpretation of cited references counts, one should have in mind that they rely on the “popularity” of a publication being cited in subsequent research. The counts measure impact but not scientific importance or accuracy (Tahamtan and Bornmann 2019 ). Note that there are many reasons why authors cite publications (Tahamtan and Bornmann 2018 ), thus introducing a lot of “noise” in the data (this is why RPYS focuses on the cited reference peaks).

Our suggestions for future empirical analysis refer to the impact of the scientific heat wave discourse on social networks and funding of basic research on heat waves around topics driven by political pressure. Whereas this paper focuses on the scientific discourse around heat waves, it would be interesting if future studies were to address the policy relevance of the heat waves research.

Appendix 1 1)

WoS search query (date of search: July 1, 2021)

Table ​ Table2 2

Author contribution

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by Werner Marx, Robin Haunschild, and Lutz Bornmann. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Werner Marx and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL.

Data availability

Code availability, declarations.

The authors declare no competing interests.

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Change history

The original version of this paper was updated to add the missing compact agreement Open Access funding note.

Contributor Information

Werner Marx, Email: [email protected] .

Robin Haunschild, Email: [email protected] .

Lutz Bornmann, Email: [email protected] , Email: ed.gpm.vg@nnamnrob .

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Open Access

Peer-reviewed

Research Article

Exposure of African ape sites to climate change impacts

Roles Data curation, Formal analysis, Validation, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

* E-mail: [email protected] (RK); [email protected] (SH)

Affiliation African Centre of Excellence for Climate Smart Agriculture and Biodiversity Conservation, Haramaya University, Haramaya, Ethiopia

ORCID logo

Roles Data curation, Validation, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

Affiliation Faculty of Built and Natural Environment, Department of Environmental Management and Technology, Koforidua Technical University, Koforidua, Ghana

Roles Validation, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

Affiliation Department of Forestry and Wildlife, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Nigeria

Affiliation College of Forestry, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, China

Roles Funding acquisition, Validation, Visualization, Writing – review & editing

Affiliations Senckenberg Museum Für Naturkunde Görlitz, Görlitz, Germany, International Institute Zittau, Technische Universität Dresden, Zittau, Germany, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany, Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, Leipzig, Germany

Roles Data curation, Formal analysis, Writing – review & editing

Affiliation Faculté des Sciences de la Vie, University of Strasbourg, Strasbourg, France

Roles Data curation, Funding acquisition, Project administration, Writing – review & editing

Affiliation Senckenberg Museum Für Naturkunde Görlitz, Görlitz, Germany

Roles Data curation, Writing – review & editing

Affiliation School of Built and Natural Environment, University of Derby, Derby, United Kingdom

Roles Funding acquisition, Writing – review & editing

Affiliation Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany

Roles Validation, Writing – review & editing

Affiliation Dian Fossey Gorilla Fund, Musanze, Rwanda

Roles Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Funding acquisition, Methodology, Supervision, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

  • Razak Kiribou, 
  • Paul Tehoda, 
  • Onyekachi Chukwu, 
  • Godfred Bempah, 
  • Hjalmar S. Kühl, 
  • Julie Ferreira, 
  • Tenekwetche Sop, 
  • Joana Carvalho, 
  • Matthias Mengel, 

PLOS

  • Published: February 28, 2024
  • https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000345
  • Reader Comments

Table 1

Large gaps remain in our understanding of the vulnerability of specific animal taxa and regions to climate change, especially regarding extreme climate impact events. Here, we assess African apes, flagship and highly important umbrella species for sympatric biodiversity. We estimated past (1981–2010) and future exposure to climate change impacts across 363 sites in Africa for RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 for near term (2021–2050) and long term (2071–2099). We used fully harmonized climate data and data on extreme climate impact events from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). Historic data show that 171 sites had positive temperature anomalies for at least nine of the past ten years with the strongest anomalies (up to 0.56°C) estimated for eastern chimpanzees. Climate projections suggest that temperatures will increase across all sites, while precipitation changes are more heterogeneous. We estimated a future increase in heavy precipitation events for 288 sites, and an increase in the number of consecutive dry days by up to 20 days per year (maximum increase estimated for eastern gorillas). All sites will be frequently exposed to wildfires and crop failures in the future, and the latter could impact apes indirectly through increased deforestation. 84% of sites are projected to be exposed to heatwaves and 78% of sites to river floods. Tropical cyclones and droughts were only projected for individual sites in western and central Africa. We further compiled available evidence on how climate change impacts could affect apes, for example, through heat stress and dehydration, a reduction in water sources and fruit trees, and reduced physiological performance, body condition, fertility, and survival. To support necessary research on the sensitivity and adaptability of African apes to climate change impacts, and the planning and implementation of conservation measures, we provide detailed results for each ape site on the open-access platform A.P.E.S. Wiki.

Citation: Kiribou R, Tehoda P, Chukwu O, Bempah G, Kühl HS, Ferreira J, et al. (2024) Exposure of African ape sites to climate change impacts. PLOS Clim 3(2): e0000345. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000345

Editor: Lalit Kumar Sharma, Zoological Survey of India, INDIA

Received: June 2, 2023; Accepted: December 27, 2023; Published: February 28, 2024

Copyright: © 2024 Kiribou et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Data Availability: The data that support the findings of this study are openly available via the ISIMIP data repository ( https://data.isimip.org/ ). Summary results are included in the Supporting Information and detailed results for each site are available on the A.P.E.S. Wiki ( wiki.iucnapesportal.org ).

Funding: SH was supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) under the research project QUIDIC (01LP1907A). Substantial part of this work emerged from the workshop “Training of young African academics in using R to process, analyze and interpret wildlife survey data” that was funded by the Volkswagen Foundation in Germany. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Introduction

Around one million species are threatened with extinction [ 1 ]. Even though climate change is not yet the main driver of biodiversity decline [ 2 ], it is projected to increasingly threaten biodiversity [ 3 ]. Species have already responded to climate change, for example, by changes in phenology [ 4 ], and latitudinal and elevational range shifts [ 5 , 6 ]. Though large uncertainties remain, it has been estimated that between 10 and 30% of terrestrial species could become locally extinct due to climate change [ 3 ].

Large taxonomic and geographic gaps remain in our understanding of the impact of climate change on species, and one of these understudied taxa are primates [ 7 , 8 ]. In addition, there are large gaps for Sub-Saharan Africa, even though the region has a high diversity in species and ecosystems, and large remaining forests essential for the global climate system [ 9 ]. Primates play an important role within their ecosystems; they contribute to forest community structure by aiding seed dispersal and plant pollination, ecosystem services that could be threatened by climate change impacts [ 10 ]. They are also one of the most prominent conservation flagship species [ 11 ], and African apes are a major focus of research and conservation activities, and an umbrella species for sympatric biodiversity. For example, the protection of African apes motivates the creation of new conservation areas, benefitting co-occurring species [ 12 ].

African apes occur in 21 countries across tropical Africa. There are four species and nine taxa ( Table 1 ). Most African apes have experienced population decline (except mountain gorillas) and all are either listed as Endangered or Critically endangered by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species [ 13 ].

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https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000345.t001

Climate projections show that across Africa, 61% of primate habitat is likely to be exposed to increases in maximum temperatures of more than 3°C by 2050 and to changes in precipitation patterns [ 14 ]. Carvalho et al. [ 15 ] estimated that the combination of climate, land-use, and population changes could lead to decreases of up to 85% of African ape ranges. As studies often investigate species exposure to average changes in climate, the impact of extreme events remains understudied [ 16 ]. Zhang et al. [ 17 ] conducted the first global assessment of primate vulnerability to droughts and tropical cyclones, and found that 16% of primate taxa are vulnerable to cyclones and 22% to droughts. Extreme events can affect apes, for example, by reducing food resources and sources of drinking water, or by the destruction of ape habitat ( Table 2 ).

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https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000345.t002

African apes’ behavioral adaptability could allow them to adapt to a certain extent. For example, chimpanzees seem to cope with high temperatures by sitting in water pools or resting in caves [ 18 ], and being more active during the night [ 19 ]. Mountain gorillas drink more frequently with increasing temperatures [ 20 ]. However, African apes are likely to be vulnerable to climate change impacts due to their slow reproduction [ 41 ], limited dispersal ability [ 42 ], and the restricted range of some ape taxa (e.g., Cross River gorilla and Nigeria-Cameroon chimpanzee [ 43 ]). Climate change has rarely been considered in conservation planning, and adaptation measures have not been included in recent conservation action plans for African apes (e.g., western chimpanzees [ 44 ], or western lowland gorillas and eastern chimpanzees [ 45 ]). Heinicke et al. [ 46 ] reported that climate change was listed as a threat only in 3 out of 59 western chimpanzee sites, and only one site (Moyen Bafing NP, Guinea) has implemented climate change-focused measures. In Senegal additional water holes were created recently for farmers to water their livestock in Senegal, so that natural water holes would be available for chimpanzees in this arid region (Kühl pers. com.).

One reason why climate change adaptation measures are not yet planned for or being implemented, is the prevalence of other threats, such as land-use change [ 14 ], while climate change is perceived as having a more long-term impact. However, this underestimates the more immediate impact from extreme events [ 16 ].

We used state-of-the-art climate data to calculate climatic variables for 363 ape sites across Africa for the past and future, including average temperature and precipitation, consecutive dry days, and heavy precipitation days. We also used a comprehensive data set on projected extreme climate impact events to estimate future exposure to six types of extreme events: crop failure, drought, heatwave, river flood, tropical cyclone, and wildfire. We estimated exposure at the scale of sites, because this is where decisions on funding allocation and the implementation of specific conservation measures are made. Importantly, there is a need to make this type of information publicly available to conservation decision-makers, which is why results on all sites are made available via the A.P.E.S. Wiki ( wiki.iucnapesportal.org ).

Materials and methods

We included all sites across Africa with known current or historical presence of great apes according to the IUCN SSC A.P.E.S. database [ 47 ]. In total, there were 363 sites covering 21 countries ( Fig 1 ) including 333 sites with apes’ presence and 30 sites where apes are likely extirpated. Spatial outlines of these sites were compiled from the IUCN SSC A.P.E.S. database, the World Database on Protected Areas [ 48 ], and Carvalho et al. [ 15 ]. For eight sites, spatial outlines were not available and we used the midpoint of the sites. Analyses were implemented for each of the 363 sites and made available on the open-access A.P.E.S. Wiki. Since apes have been extirpated at some of these sites for several decades, results described below are restricted to the 333 sites with apes’ presence, covering around 42% of the current distribution of African apes. Ape abundance estimates were compiled from the A.P.E.S. database and A.P.E.S. Wiki.

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Country outline data was obtained from the R package ‘mapdata’ ( cran.r-project.org/package=mapdata ).

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Climate and extreme event data

We used climate and extreme event data provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP, www.isimip.org ), the largest platform of the global climate impact modelling community. ISIMIP provides bias-adjusted and downscaled forcing data for the historical and future period, and modelling protocols fully harmonized across climate impact sectors. ISIMIP data has been extensively evaluated and used in cross-sectoral analyses (e.g., [ 49 ]).

For the historical period, we used temperature (mean and maximum daily temperature) and precipitation from the bias-corrected daily observational EWEMBI dataset from ISIMIP2a [ 50 ] described in [ 51 ]. For the future period, we used climate projections for four global climate models (GCMs; IPSL-CM5A-LR, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, GFDL-ESM2M) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0) from ISIMIP2b [ 52 ] described in [ 53 ], to be in line with the extreme event data (see below). RCP2.6 is a scenario with strong mitigation measures in which global temperatures would likely rise below 2°C by 2100, and RCP6.0 is a scenario with medium emissions where the lack of additional mitigation efforts would lead global temperatures to likely rise up to 3°C by 2100 [ 54 ]. The spatial resolution of the climate data is 0.5 degrees (approximately 50 km at the equator).

We used a previously published dataset of extreme climate impact events provided by Lange et al. [ 55 ]. This dataset includes six types of extreme events: crop failure, drought, heatwave, river flood, tropical cyclone, and wildfire. Data is based on climate impact simulations from ISIMIP2b [ 53 ] and provides extreme event data for the future period for the same four GCMs and two RCPs described above (spatial resolution 0.5 degrees). For each year and grid cell, the proportion of area exposed to an extreme event is provided. Lange et al. [ 55 ] based exposure to crop failure on three crop models, drought and river flood on eight hydrological models, wildfire on five vegetation models, and tropical cyclones on one model. Exposure to heatwaves was derived from temperature directly. Details are described in the original publication [ 55 ].

For each ape site, we first determined which grid cell midpoints from the climate and extreme event datasets fell within the spatial outline of the site. For the eight sites where we did not have a spatial outline, we identified the grid cell midpoint closest to the site. We then extracted data for each grid cell, and in cases where several grid cell midpoints were within one site, we calculated the average per site.

Climatic variables

To comprehensively describe climatic conditions at each site, we derived four climatic variables based on published evidence of how temperature and precipitation can influence great apes ( Table 2 ). For each year from 1979 to 2016, we calculated:

  • temperature (annual mean of mean daily and maximum daily temperature in °C)
  • precipitation (total annual precipitation in mm/day)
  • consecutive dry days (maximum number of consecutive dry days per year, with a dry day defined as precipitation <1mm/day)
  • heavy precipitation (number of days with heavy precipitation per year, for the reference period 1979–2013 we calculated the 98 th percentile of all precipitation days (>1mm/day) as a site-specific threshold for a heavy precipitation event, and then derived for each year the number of days above that threshold)

To quantify changes in temperature and precipitation, we calculated temperature and precipitation anomalies. For this, we first calculated the mean temperature for the reference period 1979–2013 (as also used in ISIMIP2b) and then for each year the difference between temperature and the reference value. Thus, a positive anomaly implies that the temperature in that year was higher than the reference period, and a negative anomaly that temperatures were lower. We implemented this approach for mean and maximum temperature and for precipitation.

To be able to compare future climate with past climate, we also calculated the average for each climatic variable across three 30-year periods. We calculated the past average from 1981 to 2010, and future averages from 2021 to 2050 (referred to as ‘near term’) and from 2071 to 2099 (‘long term’). We derived calculations separately for each GCM and then calculated the median across all four GCMs [ 49 , 55 ].

Extreme climate impact events

We analysed the exposure of African apes to six types of extreme events for which there is evidence that they can negatively impact African apes ( Table 2 ) and that were available from the dataset by Lange et al. [ 55 ]. For each year of the ‘near term’ and ‘long term’ period described above, we extracted the proportion of area affected within each site. For crop failure, we extracted data for the site with a buffer of 50 km to account for the effect that crop failure in areas surrounding an ape site can lead to increased destruction of ape habitat ( Table 2 ). Lange at al. [ 55 ] defined droughts based on soil moisture and thus differ from the climatic variables described above which are based on precipitation. Heatwaves were defined by Lange et al. [ 55 ] as hot and humid conditions. Thus, climatic variables and extreme events describe different aspects of climate change impacts on apes. For each time period and site, we calculated the number of years with an extreme event and the average proportion of area exposed to events. As above, we first implemented analyses separately for each GCM and then calculated the median across all four GCMs. Maps of projected exposure for the scenarios RCP2.6 near term and RCP6.0 long term typically reflect the range of projected exposure and are shown in the main text (maps for all four scenarios are shown in Fig E-J in S1 Text ).

Data processing and analysis was implemented in QGIS version 3.20 [ 56 ] and R version 3.6 [ 57 ] with the following R packages: ‘geosphere’ [ 58 ], ‘maps’ [ 59 ], ‘mapdata’ [ 60 ], ‘ncdf4’ [ 61 ], ‘raster’ [ 62 ], ‘shapefiles’ [ 63 ] and ‘splancs’ [ 64 ].

Across the 333 sites analysed, the average annual temperature for the past period (1981–2010) was 24.70°C. Temperatures were lowest for sites where mountain gorillas occur and highest for western chimpanzees ( Fig 2 ). Sites with eastern chimpanzees covered the widest range of temperatures (9.29°C, Table A in S1 Text , Fig 2 ) while sites with bonobos covered the narrowest temperature range (1.29°C). At the majority of sites temperatures have increased since 1979 ( Fig 3 ). 36 sites with 13,986 apes had positive temperature anomalies for each of the past ten years (2007–2016), and for an additional 135 sites with 106,623 apes, nine of the past ten years had positive temperature anomalies. Average temperature anomalies across the past ten years ranged from 0.01 to 0.56°C (relative to the reference period 1979–2013) across all sites, with a mean of 0.23°C ( Fig 3 ). Of the 30 sites with the highest average temperature anomalies, all but one were within the range of eastern chimpanzees exposing 13,469 apes. For RCP2.6, an increase in annual temperatures of around 1°C (relative to the past period, 1981–2010) was projected for the near and the long term across all ape taxa. For RCP6.0, the projected increase in the near term was also around 1°C, and an increase of more than 2°C was projected for the long term, with a cross-site average of 2.43°C increase (Supporting information).

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Sites where chimpanzees and gorillas occur are drawn as squares with two colours.

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Temperature anomaly is the difference to the average annual temperature of the reference period 1979–2013. Thick lines in the boxplots show the median, bottom end of the box the first quartile and top end of the box the third quartile. Dark blue: Third quartile below zero, light blue: Median below zero and third quartile above zero, light red: Median above zero and first quartile below zero, dark red: Median and first quartile above zero.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000345.g003

The maximum daily temperature averaged across all sites, was 30.53°C for the past period (Table B in S1 Text ), and was highest for sites with western chimpanzees reaching an annual average of 35.42°C for Niokolo Koba National Park in Senegal. General patterns regarding temperature anomaly and magnitude of projected increases were very similar compared to the patterns described above for daily mean temperature (Table B in S1 Text , Fig A in S1 Text ). Maximum daily temperatures have increased at the majority of sites (Fig A in S1 Text ) and temperature anomalies were highest for sites with western and eastern chimpanzees (e.g., average temperature anomaly of 0.58°C for Semuliki National Park in Uganda). For RCP2.6 near and long-term and RCP6.0 near term, an increase in average maximum daily temperatures by around 1°C was projected, and for RCP6.0 long term an increase by 2.41°C was estimated (Table B in S1 Text ).

Annual precipitation differed strongly across ape sites and ranged from 978.14 to 4962.42 mm, with an average of 1940.02 mm across all sites for the past period ( Fig 2 , Table C in S1 Text ). Western chimpanzees occur at sites with the lowest annual precipitation, and western gorillas and central chimpanzees at sites with the highest annual precipitation. For 79 sites with 145,203 apes, seven of the past ten years (2007–2016) were wetter than the reference period (mean precipitation anomaly: 135.40 mm, max: 1056.11 mm). For 54 sites with 51,987 apes, seven of the past ten years were drier than the reference period (mean: -168.48 mm, min: -453.63 mm). Increased precipitation occurred at ape sites in coastal areas of central Africa, and at some savanna sites in western Africa, with drier conditions found in coastal areas at the border between Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, and around the tri-border area of the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Gabon (Fig B in S1 Text ). Regarding future projections of annual precipitation, there was no clear trend with drying and wetting projected across both RCPs and time periods (Fig B in S1 Text ). Decreases in precipitation were consistently projected for chimpanzee sites in western Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, and Senegal. Increases in precipitation were consistently projected for chimpanzee sites at the tri-border area of Guinea, Liberia and Côte d’Ivoire, and north-eastern Côte d’Ivoire and Guinea. Similarly, increases in precipitation were also consistently projected for most sites in central Africa, and the northern range of eastern chimpanzees.

For the number of consecutive dry days, the average across all sites for the past period was 35 days per year (Table D in S1 Text ), with lowest values for eastern gorillas (mean: 12 days) and bonobos (mean: 15 days), and longest dry period for western chimpanzees (mean: 47 days). An increase in the number of dry days was consistently projected for all eastern gorilla sites (exposing 4,161 apes) with an increase by more than 20 days in, for example, Kahuzi-Biega and Luama-Kivu in eastern DRC. A strong decrease by more than 30 days was projected for sites in coastal Gabon which was in line with the projected increase in precipitation.

For the number of days with heavy precipitation events, the average for the past period was six days (average across all sites) and similar across all taxa (Table E in S1 Text ). For future periods, an increase in heavy precipitation events was consistently projected across 288 sites with 429,924 apes, while only for two sites a decrease in heavy precipitation was consistently projected.

Extreme events

In terms of number of sites affected, wildfires ( Fig 4 ) and crop failures ( Fig 5 ) were the most prevalent extreme events, as across all scenarios 100% of sites were exposed (exception: two sites not exposed to wildfires for RCP6.0 near term). For wildfires, the frequency of events was very high, with almost every year experiencing an event (Table K in S1 Text ). For crop failures, frequency was the second highest across event types, with around 15 years (out of a 30-year period) exposed to crop failures for RCP2.6 near and long term (Table F in S1 Text ). However, for both crop failure and wildfires, the proportion of area affected was low, with less than 5% exposed under all scenarios.

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(a) RCP2.6 near term (2021–2050) and (b) RCP6.0 long term (2071–2099). Top row: Number of years with an event within the time period. Bottom row: Number of sites and number of apes projected to be exposed to the respective number of years with an event. Maps for all four scenarios in Fig J in S1 Text . Country outline data was obtained from the R package ‘mapdata’ ( cran.r-project.org/package=mapdata ).

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(a) RCP2.6 near term (2021–2050) and (b) RCP6.0 long term (2071–2099). Top row: Number of years with an event within the time period. Bottom row: Number of sites and number of apes projected to be exposed to the respective number of years with an event. Maps for all four scenarios in Fig E in S1 Text . Country outline data was obtained from the R package ‘mapdata’ ( cran.r-project.org/package=mapdata ).

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River floods ( Fig 6 ) and heatwaves ( Fig 7 ) were also very prevalent in terms of number of sites affected. Most sites were exposed to floods under RCP2.6 near term (78%) and long term (92%, Table I in S1 Text ). But the frequency was low with around one year with an event for RCP2.6 long term and three years with an event for RCP6.0 long term. River floods had low spatial extent with an average of 1–2% of area affected across all scenarios. However, the range was relatively large (up to 14%) and for Budongo, Bugoma and Mahale (eastern chimpanzee) more than 10% of area were affected in three out of four scenarios. Most sites were exposed to heatwaves for RCP2.6 near term (84%) and long term (85%, Table H in S1 Text ). The frequency of events was on average around five years with events for RCP2.6 near and long term. Frequency was higher for RCP6.0 long term with an average of nine years with events. Sites with high frequency in heatwave events were located in southern Côte d’Ivoire and neighbouring areas, and in central Africa ( Fig 7 ). The extent of spatial exposure was high with more than 80% of the area affected for RCP2.6 near and long term.

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(a) RCP2.6 near term (2021–2050) and (b) RCP6.0 long term (2071–2099). Top row: Number of years with an event within the time period. Bottom row: Number of sites and number of apes projected to be exposed to the respective number of years with an event. Maps for all four scenarios in Fig H in S1 Text . Country outline data was obtained from the R package ‘mapdata’ ( cran.r-project.org/package=mapdata ).

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000345.g006

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(a) RCP2.6 near term (2021–2050) and (b) RCP6.0 long term (2071–2099). Top row: Number of years with an event within the time period. Bottom row: Number of sites and number of apes projected to be exposed to the respective number of years with an event. Maps for all four scenarios in Fig G in S1 Text . Country outline data was obtained from the R package ‘mapdata’ ( cran.r-project.org/package=mapdata ).

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For droughts, 8% of sites were exposed under RCP2.6 near and long term (Table G in S1 Text , Fig C in S1 Text , S6). They were located in the tri-border area of Guinea, Guinea-Bissau and Senegal, in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, and two sites in central Africa (Canbinda and Tshuapa-Lomami-Lualaba). The event frequency was low (mean across sites for RC2.6 near term 0.14 years), and highest for western chimpanzees with an average of 4.5 years for RCP2.6 near term. However, similar to heatwaves, the spatial extent of exposure was projected to be high with an average of 53.78% for RCP2.6 near term, and lower exposure of 35.75% for RCP2.6 long term.

For tropical cyclones, only few sites were projected to be exposed (Table J in S1 Text , Fig D, I in S1 Text ). For RCP2.6 near term only sites within the range of western chimpanzees were exposed, for example, Cantanhez Forest in Guinea-Bissau and Nialama in Guinea. For RCP2.6 long term, sites in Sierra Leone were also projected to be exposed (e.g., Loma Mountains and Western Area Peninsula). Only for RCP6.0 long term, tropical cyclones were also projected for coastal sites in central Africa (e.g., Cabinda and Conkouati-Douli) which could expose western lowland gorillas and central chimpanzees.

In summary, crop failure and wildfires are projected to affect all sites at a high frequency and low spatial extent. A large majority of sites are projected to be affected by heatwaves with a medium frequency but high spatial exposure, and river floods with a low frequency and typically low spatial extent. Droughts and tropical cyclones were projected to only affect specific sites. Numbers were typically higher for RCP6.0 in comparison to RCP2.6, and only for droughts a decrease in average spatial exposure was projected.

For the first time, we showed that African ape sites have already experienced changes in climatic conditions and are likely to be exposed to extreme events in the future. We found that temperatures have increased over the past decades at the majority of ape sites, and in line with a previous study [ 14 ], we found a consistent increase in future temperatures. Bonobo sites covered the narrowest temperature range, which indicates a potentially lower physiological tolerance that might make bonobos more sensitive to climate change impacts [ 65 ]. We also showed that the majority of ape sites will be exposed to a high frequency of heatwaves. It has been shown that chimpanzees occurring in an area with high temperatures experience heat stress [ 18 ]. The impact of heatwaves on primates has not yet been studied, but high mortality of humans during heatwaves [ 35 ] and mass die-offs for some taxa (e.g., flying foxes [ 36 ]) have been observed. Thus, given the projected prevalence of heatwaves across ape sites, there is a need to understand sensitivity of apes to this extreme event. Thermoregulation behaviours have already been observed in apes (e.g., higher drinking frequency, nocturnal behaviour, sitting in caves and pools [ 18 – 20 ]). Though the behavioural flexibility of apes allows them to adapt to higher temperatures to some degree, these behaviours have only been observed for a few study sites, and it is not known how effective these adaptation strategies are, given, for example, that apes compete for access to standing water sources with humans and their livestock in dry habitats. In addition, these adaptive behaviours entail trade-offs, such as less time for feeding, or increased predation pressure at night. When more energy is used for thermoregulation this can reduce other physiological processes such as reduced functionality of the immune system, as observed for birds [ 22 ]. Behavioural and physiological trade-offs can result in a decline of body condition, as well as lower survival and fertility ( Table 2 ).

For precipitation, the results were heterogenous for the historical as well as future period. For sites that have been and are projected to be exposed to less precipitation or an extended period without any precipitation (e.g., projected for eastern gorillas), this can result in a reduced availability of standing water sources. As chimpanzees at a site with low annual precipitation already experience dehydration [ 18 ], and as drinking more water is a strategy gorillas use to cope with high temperatures [ 20 ], the combined impact of rising temperatures and reduced precipitation might lead to high levels of stress and result in a decline of body condition and fecundity, and ultimately to population declines [ 16 ].

Exposure to droughts was projected only for few sites (mostly in West Africa) and there droughts could lead to a reduction in food sources. For forest elephants in Gabon, drier conditions led to lower encounter rates of ripe fruits and resulted in a decline in elephant body condition [ 27 ]. In contrast, some sites in savanna areas are projected to have an increase in precipitation, and thus projections show a lower proportion of area exposed to droughts in the long term, which is in line with updated model projections [ 66 ]. While there were extensive droughts in the 1970s and 1980s across the Sahel, rainfall has increased since the 1990s, which has been linked to changes in the West African monsoon [ 67 ]. In combination with the CO 2 fertilization effect this could lead to a further greening of the Sahel [ 67 , 68 ] and potentially an increase in suitable habitat for apes.

Our finding of an increase in the number of days with heavy precipitation at a majority of sites is in line with findings that rainfall patterns will become more erratic [ 69 ]. Heavy precipitation can destroy ape nests [ 30 ]. At the same time, up to 90% of sites are projected to be exposed to river flooding, which can restrict animal movement, lead to splitting of social groups, make affected areas inaccessible to animals and can ultimately lead to higher mortality due to higher disease prevalence [ 32 ].

The high spatial exposure of ape sites to crop failures and wildfires can intensify forest fragmentation and deforestation. Especially the combination of several stressors, such as drying, fires and deforestation could lead to a self-reinforcing process that could even lead to a tipping of the Congo rainforest into savanna [ 70 ] and thus a loss of ape habitat.

The prevalence of exposure of ape sites to climate change impacts stresses the need to plan, for example, in conservation action plans, and implement conservation measures that will increase ape resilience to climate change. At sites facing water shortages, the creation of additional water sources or the protection of such sources specifically for apes would be an important measure. In addition, measures that protect nesting and feeding trees and ape habitat in general, are needed to improve ape resilience. This can also include measures that prevent the unintentional spread of wildfires, for example, cutting fire breaks, as is implemented in Moyen-Bafing National Park in Guinea [ 46 ]. As we found a high projected prevalence of crop failures, interventions that support farmers in years of crop failure or supplementary income sources can contribute to avoiding deforestation. It has not yet been studied to which extent apes are able to track their climatic niche by shifting their range. However, dispersal velocities of primates are lower than for most other taxa [ 17 , 42 ]. Thus, to support adaptation to climate change impacts, the creation of corridors and new protected areas are needed to avoid isolation of ape populations.

Limitations

One limitation of this study pertains to uncertainties inherent in modelled climate data and simulated climate change impacts as discussed by Lange et al. [ 55 ]. However, the bias-adjustment implemented by ISIMIP reduces some of these uncertainties. To reduce bias, we implemented analyses separately for each GCM and then calculated the median across all four GCMs [ 49 , 55 ]. The choice of two emission scenarios allowed for estimating a possible corridor of future developments, as recent observations show that global greenhouse gas emissions are already exceeding the low-emission scenario RCP2.6. In addition, the climate data we used has a coarser resolution than other available data sources. We chose ISIMIP climate data because the same data was used to force the climate impact models that provided the input for estimating extreme event exposure [ 55 ]. This type of extreme event data, especially the inclusion of different types of impacts, is not available at higher resolution from other sources. Further, other sources of high-resolution climate data that are commonly used in biodiversity research (e.g., CRU [ 71 ] or WorldClim [ 72 ]) also have shortcomings, including the low and decreasing coverage of weather stations across Africa [ 73 ] or limitations in mountainous regions [ 74 ]. Similarly, we did not use CMIP6 climate data as the corresponding climate impact simulations are not yet available, and consequently not the respective extreme event data. Future research with climate and extreme event data based on CMIP6 will be useful to corroborate the findings of this study and to better understand modelling uncertainties, for example, regarding the ongoing discussion on whether a subset of CMIP6 models can be considered ‘too hot’ [ 75 ].

With the exception of the study by Zhang et al. [ 17 ] on the exposure of primates to past droughts and tropical cyclones, studies on the exposure of great apes to past extreme events are rare. Closing this research gap would be an important contribution to assessing the extent to which apes may be able to adapt to the projected prevalence of extreme events.

Our study shows that African apes are and will be increasingly exposed to climate change impacts. However, the vulnerability of animals to the impacts of climate change, and in particular to extreme events, remains poorly understood. Long-term research sites may be well placed to investigate how sensitive animals are to climatic stressors at physiological and behavioural levels. In addition, systematic data collection across sites with different climate change contexts would be important to better understand the mechanisms underlying climate change impacts on animals. Although large gaps remain, our study highlights the need to integrate climate change adaptation into conservation action planning.

Supporting information

Supporting tables Table A in S1 Text. Annual mean temperature. Table B in S1 Text. Annual maximum temperature. Table C in S1 Text. Annual precipitation. Table D in S1 Text. Maximum number of consecutive dry days. Table E in S1 Text. Number of days with heavy precipitation. Table F in S1 Text. Projected exposure to crop failures. Table G in S1 Text. Projected exposure to droughts. Table H in S1 Text. Projected exposure to heatwaves. Table I in S1 Text. Projected exposure to river floods. Table J in S1 Text. Projected exposure to tropical cyclones. Table K in S1 Text. Projected exposure to wildfires. Supporting figures Fig A in S1 Text. Anomaly of maximum daily temperature. Fig B in S1 Text. Projected exposure of African ape sites to changes in precipitation. Fig C in S1 Text. Projected exposure of African ape sites to droughts. Fig in S1 Text. Projected exposure of African ape sites to tropical cyclones Fig in S1 Text. Maps of projected exposure of African ape sites to crop failure for all four scenarios. Fig in S1 Text. Maps of projected exposure of African ape sites to droughts for all four scenarios. Fig in S1 Text. Maps of projected exposure of African ape sites to heatwaves for all four scenarios. Fig in S1 Text. Maps of projected exposure of African ape sites to river floods for all four scenarios. Fig in S1 Text. Maps of projected exposure of African ape sites to tropical cyclones for all four scenarios. Fig in S1 Text. Maps of projected exposure of African ape sites to wildfires for all four scenarios.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000345.s001

Acknowledgments

Substantial part of this work emerged from the workshop “Training of young African academics in using R to process, analyze and interpret wildlife survey data” that took place in Côte d’Ivoire (2022) and Rwanda (2023). We are grateful to the following organizations which organized the training: the Senckenberg Museum of Natural History Görlitz (Germany), the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig (Germany), the Centre Suisse de Recherches Scientifiques—CSRS (Côte d’Ivoire), the Dian Fossey Gorilla Fund in Kinigi—DFGF (Rwanda), the IUCN SSC Primate Specialist Group—Section on Great Apes (PSG-SGA), Re:wild (USA) and the African Primatological Society (APS). We particularly thank Prof. Inza Kone and Dr. Winnie Eckardt for their special investment in the success of this workshop which enabled the collaborative work for this research. We thank Amanda Korstjens and Priyamvada Bagaria for helpful comments on earlier drafts of this manuscript.

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National Academies Press: OpenBook

Ecological Impacts of Climate Change (2008)

Chapter: 1 introduction.

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1 Introduction The world’s climate is changing, and it will continue to change throughout the 21st century and beyond. Rising temperatures, new precipitation patterns, and other changes are already affecting many aspects of human society and the natural world. Climate change is transforming ecosystems at extraordinary rates and scales. As each species responds to its changing environment, its interactions with the physical world and the creatures around it change—triggering a cascade of impacts throughout the ecosystem, such as expansion into new areas, the intermingling of formerly non-overlapping species, and even species extinctions Climate change is happening on a global scale, but the ecological impacts are often local and vary from place to place. To illuminate how climate change has affected specific species and ecosystems, this document presents a series of examples of ecological impacts of climate change that have already been observed across the United States. Human actions have been a primary cause of the climate changes observed today, but humans are capable of changing our behavior in ways that reduce the rate of future climate change. Human actions are also needed to help wild species adapt to climate changes that cannot be avoided. Our approaches to energy, agriculture, water management, fishing, biological conservation, and many other activities will all affect the ways and extent to which climate change will alter the natural world—and the ecosystems on which we depend. What are ecosystems and why are they important? Humans share Earth with a vast diversity of animals, plants, and microorganisms. Virtually every part of the planet––the continents, the oceans, and the atmosphere––teems with life. Even the deepest parts of the ocean and rock formations hundreds of meters below the surface are populated with organisms adapted to cope with the unique challenges each environment presents. In our era organisms almost everywhere are facing a new set of challenges; specifically, the challenges presented by rapid climate change. How have plants, animals, and microorganisms coped with the climate changes that have already occurred, and how might they cope with future changes? To explore these questions we start with a discussion of how plants, animals, and microorganisms fit together in ecosystems and the role of climate in those relationships. Earth has a great diversity of habitats. These differ in climate, of course, but also in soils, day length, elevation, water sources, chemistry, and many other factors, and consequently, in the kinds of organisms that inhabit them. The animals, plants, and microorganisms that live in one place, along with the water, soils, and landforms, make an ecosystem. When we attempt to understand the impacts of climate change, thinking about ecosystems––and not just individual species––can be helpful because each ecosystem depends on a wide array of interactions among individuals. Some of these involve competition. For example, some plants shade others or several animals compete for the same scarce food. Some involve relationships between animals and their prey. Others involve decomposition, the process of decay that returns minerals and organic matter to the soil. And some interactions are beneficial to both partners, for example, bees that obtain food from flowers while pollinating them. Climate influences ecosystems and the species that inhabit them in many ways. In general, each type of ecosystem is consistently associated with a particular combination of climate characteristics (Walter 1968). Warm tropical lands with year-round rain typically support

2 Introduction tall forests with evergreen broadleaved trees. Midlatitude lands with cold winters and moist summers usually support deciduous forests, while drier areas are covered in grasslands, shrublands, or conifer forests. In a similar fashion shallow tropical-ocean waters harbor coral reefs on rocky bottoms and mangrove forests along muddy shores, whereas temperate shores are characterized by kelp forests on rocky bottoms and seagrasses or salt marshes on sediment- covered bottoms. These major vegetation types or biomes can cover vast areas. Within these areas a wide range of subtly different ecosystems utilize sites with different soils, topography, land-use history, ocean currents, or climate details. Humans are an important part of most ecosystems, and many ecosystems have been heavily modified by humans. A plot of intensively managed farmland, a fish pond, and a grazed grassland are just as much ecosystems as is a pristine tropical forest. All are influenced by climate, all depend on a wide variety of interactions, and all provide essential benefits to people. The lives of animals, plants, and microorganisms are strongly attuned to changes in climate, such as variation in temperatures; the amount, timing, or form of precipitation; or changes in ocean currents. Some are more sensitive and vulnerable to climate fluctuations than others. If the climate change is modest and slow, the majority of species will most likely adapt successfully. If the climate change is large or rapid, more and more species will face ecological changes to which they may not be able to adapt. But as we will see later, even modest impacts of climate change can cause a range of significant responses, even if the changes are not so harsh that the organism dies. Organisms may react to a shift in temperature or precipitation by altering the timing of an event like migration or leaf emergence, which in turn has effects that ripple out to other parts of the ecosystem. For example, such timing changes may alter the interactions between predator and prey, or plants (including many crops) and the insects that pollinate their flowers. Ultimately we want to understand how climate change alters the overall functioning of the ecosystem and in particular how it alters the ability of the ecosystem to provide valuable services for humans. Ecosystems play a central role in sustaining humans (Figure 1) (Daily 1997; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005). Ecosystems provide products directly consumed by people. This includes food and fiber from agricultural, marine, and forest ecosystems, plus fuel, including wood, grass, and even waste from some agricultural crops, and medicines (from plants, animals and seaweeds). Our supply and quality of fresh water also depends on ecosystems, as they play a critical role in circulating, cleaning, and replenishing water supplies. Ecosystems also regulate our environment; for example, forests, floodplains, and streamside vegetation can be critically important in controlling risks from floods; likewise, mangroves, kelp forests, and coral reefs dampen the impact of storms on coastal communities. Ecosystems provide cultural services that improve our quality of life in ways that range from the sense of awe many feel when looking up at a towering sequoia tree to educational and recreational opportunities. Ecosystems also provide nature’s support structure; without ecosystems there would be no soil to support plants, nor all the microorganisms and animals that depend on plants. In the oceans, ecosystems sustain the nutrient cycling that supports marine plankton, which in turn supply food for the fish and other seafood humans eat. Algae in ocean ecosystems produce much of the oxygen that we breathe. In general, we do not pay for the services we get from ecosystems, even though we could not live without them and would have to pay a high price to provide artificially.

Introduction 3 FIGURE 1 Ecosystem services. SOURCE: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005). Ecosystem services rely on complex interactions among many species, so in most environments it is critical that they contain a diverse array of organisms. Even those services that appear to depend on a single species, like the production of honey, actually depend on the interactions of many species, sometimes many hundreds or thousands. Honey comes from honeybees, but the bees depend on pollen and nectar from the plants they pollinate. These plants depend not only on the bees but also on the worms and other soil animals that aerate the soil, the microorganisms that release nutrients, and the predatory insects that limit populations of plant- eating insects. Scientists are still at the early stages of understanding exactly how diversity contributes to ecosystem resilience—the ability of an ecosystem to withstand stresses like pollution or a hurricane without it resulting in a major shift in the ecosystem’s type or the services it provides (Schulze and Mooney 1993; Chapin et al. 1997; Tilman et al. 2006; Worm et al. 2006). But we are already certain about one thing. Each species is a unique solution to a challenge posed by nature and each species’ DNA is a unique and complex blueprint. Once a species goes extinct, we can’t get it back. Therefore, as we look at the impacts of climate change on ecosystems, it is critical to remember that some kinds of impacts—losses of biological diversity—are irreversible. What do we know about current climate change? Over the last 20 years the world’s governments have requested a series of authoritative assessments of scientific knowledge about climate change, its impacts, and possible approaches

4 Introduction for dealing with climate change. These assessments are conducted by a unique organization, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Every five to seven years, the IPCC uses volunteer input from thousands of scientists to synthesize available knowledge. The IPCC conclusions undergo intense additional review and evaluation by both the scientific community and the world’s governments, resulting in final reports that all countries officially accept (Bolin 2007). The information in the IPCC reports has thus been through multiple reviews and is the most authoritative synthesis of the state of the science on climate change. Earth’s average temperature is increasing In 2007 the IPCC reported that Earth’s average temperature is unequivocally warming (IPCC 2007b). Multiple lines of scientific evidence show that Earth’s global average surface temperature has risen some 0.75°C (1.3°F) since 1850 (the starting point for a useful global network of thermometers). Not every part of the planet’s surface is warming at the same rate. Some parts are warming more rapidly, particularly over land, and a few parts (in Antarctica, for example) have cooled slightly (Figure 2). But vastly more areas are warming than cooling. In the United States average temperatures have risen overall, with the change in temperature generally much higher in the northwest, especially in Alaska, than in the south (Figure 3). The eight warmest years in the last 100 years, according to NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, have all occurred since 1998 (http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20080116/). During the second half of the 20th century, oceans have also become warmer. Warmer ocean waters cause sea ice to melt, trigger bleaching of corals, result in many species shifting their geographic ranges, stress many other species that cannot move elsewhere, contribute to sea- level rise (see below), and hold less oxygen and carbon dioxide.

Introduction 5 FIGURE 2 Global trends in temperature. The upper map shows the average change in temperature per decade from 1870 to 2005. Areas in orange have seen temperatures rise between 0.1-0.2oC per decade, so that they average 1.35 to 2.7oC warmer in 2005 than in 1870. The lower map shows the average change in temperature per decade from 1950 to 2005. Areas in deep red have seen temperatures rise on average more than 0.4oC per decade, so that they average more than 2oC warmer in 2005 than in 1950. SOURCE: Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington.

6 Introduction FIGURE 3 Temperature trends in North America, 1955 to 2005. The darker areas have experienced greater changes in temperature. For example, the Pacific Northwest had average temperatures about 1oC higher in 2005 than in 1955, while Alaska’s average temperature had risen by over 2oC. SOURCE: Created with data from Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Sea levels are rising Climate change also means that sea levels are rising. Not only do warmer temperatures cause glaciers and land ice to melt (adding more volume to oceans), but seawater also expands in volume as it warms. The global average sea level rose by just under 2 mm/yr (0.08in/yr) during the 20th century, but since satellite measurements began in 1992, the rate has been 3.1 mm/year (0.12in/yr)(IPCC 2007a). Along some parts of the U.S. coast, tide gauge records show that sea level rose even faster (up to 10 mm/yr, 0.39in/yr) because the land is also subsiding. As sea level rises, shoreline retreat has been taking place along most of the nation’s sandy or muddy shorelines, and substantial coastal wetlands have been lost due to the combined effects of sea- level rise and direct human activities. In Louisiana alone, 4900 km2 (1900 mi2) of wetlands have been lost since 1900 as a result of high rates of relative sea-level rise together with curtailment of the supply of riverborne sediments needed to build wetland soils. The loss of these wetlands has diminished the ability of that region to provide many ecosystem services, including commercial fisheries, recreational hunting and fishing, and habitats for rare, threatened, and migratory species, as well as weakening the region’s capacity to absorb storm surges like those caused by Hurricane Katrina (Day et al. 2007). Higher sea levels can also change the salinity and water circulation patterns of coastal estuaries and bays, with varying consequences for the mix of species that can thrive there.

Introduction 7 Other effects are being seen Water Cycle Climate change is linked to a number of other changes that already can be seen around the world. These include earlier spring snowmelt and peak stream flow, melting mountain glaciers, a dramatic decrease in sea ice during the arctic summer, and increasing frequency of extreme weather events, including the most intense hurricanes (IPCC 2007b). Changes in average annual precipitation have varied from place to place in the United States (Figure 4). Climate dynamics and the cycling of water between land, rivers and lakes, and clouds and oceans are closely connected. Climate change to date has produced complicated effects on water balances, supply, demand, and quality. When winter precipitation falls as rain instead of snow and as mountain snowpacks melt earlier, less water is “stored” in the form of snow for slow release throughout the summer (Mote 2003), when it is needed by the wildlife in and around streams and rivers and for agriculture and domestic uses. Even if the amount of precipitation does not change, warmer temperatures mean that moisture evaporates more quickly, so that the amount of moisture available to plants declines. The complex interaction between temperature and water demand and availability means that climate change can have many different kinds of effects on ecosystems. FIGURE 4 Trends in precipitation from 1901 to 2006 in the United States. Areas in red are averaging some 30 percent less precipitation per year now than they received early in the 1900s. Dark blue areas are averaging 50 percent more precipitation per year. SOURCE: Backlund 2008. Created with data from the USGS and NOAA/NCDC. Extreme Events The character of extreme weather and climate events is also changing on a global scale. The number of frost days in midlatitude regions is decreasing, while the number of days with extreme warm temperatures is increasing. Many land regions have experienced an increase in days with very heavy rain, but the recent CCSP report on climate extremes concluded that “there are recent

8 Introduction regional tendencies toward more severe droughts in the southwestern U.S., parts of Canada and Alaska, and Mexico” (Kunkel et al. 2008, Dai et al. 2004; Seager et al., 2007). These seemingly contradictory changes are consistent with a climate in which a greater input of heat energy is leading to a more active water cycle. In addition, warmer ocean temperatures are associated with the recent increase in the fraction of hurricanes that grow to the most destructive categories 4 and 5 (Emanuel 2005; Webster et al. 2005). Arctic Sea Ice Every year the area covered by sea ice in the Arctic Ocean expands in the winter and contracts in the summer. In the first half of the 20th century the annual minimum sea-ice area in the Arctic was usually in the range of 10 to 11 million km2 (3.86 to 4.25 million mi2) (ACIA 2005). In September 2007 sea-ice area hit a single-day minimum of 4.1 million km2 (1.64 million mi2), a loss of about half since the 1950s (Serreze et al. 2007). The decrease in area is matched by a dramatic decrease in thickness. From 1975 to 2000 the average thickness of Arctic sea ice decreased by 33 percent, from 3.7 to 2.5 m (12.3 to 8.3 ft) (Rothrock et al. 2008). Ocean Acidification About one-third of the carbon dioxide emitted by human activity has already been taken up by the oceans, thus moderating the increase of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere and global warming. But, as the carbon dioxide dissolves in sea water, carbonic acid is formed, which has the effect of acidifying, or lowering the pH, of the ocean (Orr et al. 2005). Although not caused by warming, acidification is a result of the increase of carbon dioxide, the same major greenhouse gas that causes warming. Ocean acidification has many impacts on marine ecosystems. To date, laboratory experiments have shown that although ocean acidification may be beneficial to a few species, it will likely be highly detrimental to a substantial number of species ranging from corals to lobsters and from sea urchins to mollusks (Raven et al. 2005; Doney et al. 2008; Fabry et al. 2008). Causes of climate change Both natural variability and human activities are contributing to observed global and regional warming, and both will contribute to future climate trends. It is very likely that most of the observed warming for the last 50 years has been due to the increase in greenhouse gases related to human activities (in IPCC reports, “very likely” specifically means that scientists believe the statement is at least 90 percent likely to be true; “likely” specifically means about two-thirds to 90 percent likely to be true [IPCC 2007b]). While debate over details is an important part of the scientific process, the climate science community is virtually unanimous on this conclusion. The physical processes that cause climate change are scientifically well documented. The basic physics of the way greenhouse gases warm the climate were well established by Tyndall, Ahrrenius, and others in the 19th century (Bolin 2007). The conclusions that human actions have very likely caused most of the recent warming and will likely cause more in the future are based on the vast preponderance of accumulated scientific evidence from many different kinds of observations (IPCC 2007b). Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, human activities that clear land or burn fossil fuels have been injecting rapidly increasing amounts of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) into the atmosphere. In 2006 emissions of CO2 were about 36 billion metric tons (39.6 billion English tons), or about 5.5 metric tons (6.0 English tons) for every human being (Raupach et al. 2007). In the United States average CO2

Introduction 9 emissions in 2006 were approximately 55 kg (120 lb) per person per day. As a consequence of these emissions, atmospheric CO2 has increased by about 35 percent since 1850. Scientists know that the increases in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are due to human activities, not natural processes, because they can fingerprint carbon dioxide (for example, by the mix of carbon isotopes it contains, its spatial pattern, and trends in concentration over time) and identify the sources. Concentrations of other greenhouse gases have also increased, some even more than CO2 in percentage terms (Figure 5). Methane, which is 25 times more effective per molecule at trapping heat than CO2, has increased by 150 percent. Nitrous oxide (N2O), which is nearly 300 times more effective per molecule than CO2 at trapping heat, has increased by over 20 percent (Forster et al. 2007). Scientific knowledge of climate is far from complete. Much remains to be learned about the factors that control the sensitivity of climate to increases in greenhouse gases, rates of change, and the regional outcomes of the global changes. These uncertainties, however, concern the details and not the core mechanisms that give scientists high confidence in their basic conclusions.

10 Introduction Atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4 and N2O over the last 10,000 years (large panels) and since 1750 (inset panels). Measurements are shown from ice cores (symbols with different colors for different studies) and atmospheric samples (red lines). The corresponding radiative forcings (amount of energy trapped per unit area) relative to 1750 are shown on the right hand axes of the large panels. Source: IPCC 2007d. FIGURE 5: Historical concentrations of greenhouse gasses CO2, CH4, and N2O over the past 10,000 years. For each of these greenhouse gases, the characteristic “hockey stick” shape of the

Introduction 11 curve is the result of large increases in the concentrations of these gases very recently, compared to their relatively stable levels over the past 10,000 years. SOURCE: IPCC 2007d. What do we expect from future climate change? Evidence of rising atmospheric and ocean temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, rising sea levels, and decreasing sea ice is already clear. Average temperatures will almost certainly be warmer in the future. The amount of future climate change depends on human actions. A large number of experiments with climate models indicate that if the world continues to emphasize rapid economic development powered by fossil fuels, it will probably experience dramatic warming during the 21st century. For this kind of “business as usual” future the IPCC (IPCC 2007b) projects a likely range of global warming over 1990 levels of 2.4-6.4ºC (4.3-11.5ºF) by 2100 (Figure 6, scenario A1F1). If greenhouse gas emissions grow more slowly, peak around the year 2050, and then fall, scientists project a likely warming over 1990 levels of 1.1-2.9ºC (2.0- 5.2ºF) by 2100 (Figure 6, scenario B1).5 Temperature increases at the high end of the range of possibilities are very likely to exceed many climate thresholds. Warming of 6°C (10.8°F) or more (the upper end of the projections that the 2007 IPCC rates as “likely”) would probably have catastrophic consequences for lifestyles, ecosystems, agriculture, and other livelihoods, especially in the regions and populations with the least resources to invest in adaptation—that is, the strategies and infrastructure for coping with the climate changes. Warming to the high end of the range would also entail a global average rate of temperature change that, for the next century or two, would dramatically exceed the average rates of the last 20,000 years, and possibly much further into the past. Mean seawater temperatures in some U.S. coastal regions have increased by as much as 1.1°C (2°F) during the last half of the 20th century and, based on IPCC model projections of air temperature, are likely to increase by as much as 2.2-4.4°C (4-8°F) during the present century. “Business as usual” emissions through 2100 would likely lead to oceans with surface temperatures that are 2-4ºC (3.6-7.2ºF) higher than now and surface waters so acidified that only a few isolated locations would support the growth of corals (Cao et al. 2007). Most marine animals, especially sedentary ones, and plants are expected to be significantly stressed by these changes (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007). Some may be able to cope with either increased temperatures or more acidic waters, but adjusting to both may not be feasible for many species. 5 Projections of warming are given as a range of temperatures for three reasons. First, gaps in the scientific understanding of climate limit the accuracy of projections for any specific concentration of greenhouse gases. Changes in wind and clouds can increase or decrease the warming that occurs in response to an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases. Loss of ice on the sea or snow on land increases the amount of the incoming sunlight that is absorbed, amplifying the warming from greenhouse gases. Second, the pattern of future emissions and the mix of compounds released to the atmosphere cannot be predicted with high confidence. Some kinds of compounds that produce warming remain in the atmosphere only a few days (Ramanathan et al. 2007). Others, like CO2, remain for centuries and longer (Matthews and Caldeira 2008). Still other compounds tend to produce aerosols or tiny droplets or particles that reflect sunlight, cooling the climate. Third, there is substantial uncertainty about the future role of the oceans and ecosystems on land. In the past, oceans and land ecosystems have stored, at least temporarily, about half of the carbon emitted to the atmosphere by human actions. If the rate of storage increases, atmospheric CO2 will rise more slowly. If it decreases, then atmospheric CO2 will rise more rapidly (Field et al. 2007).

12 Introduction Continued emissions under the “business as usual” scenario could lead by 2100 to 0.6 m (2 ft) or more of sea-level rise. Continuation of recent increases in loss of the ice caps that cover Greenland and West Antarctica could eventually escalate the rate of sea-level rise by a factor of 2 (Overpeck et al. 2006; Meehl et al. 2007; Alley et al. 2005; Gregory and Huybrechts 2006; Rahmstorf 2007). There will also be hotter extreme temperatures and fewer extreme cold events. An increase in climate variability, projected in some models, will entail more frequent conditions of extreme heat, drought, and heavy precipitation. A warmer world will experience more precipitation at the global scale, but the changes will not be the same everywhere. In general, the projections indicate that dry areas, especially in the latitude band just outside the tropics (for example, the southwestern United States), will tend to get drier on average (IPCC 2007b; Kunkel et al. 2008). Areas that are already wet, especially in the tropics and closer to the poles, will tend to get wetter on average. Increased climate variability and increased evaporation in a warmer world could both increase the risk and likely intensity of future droughts. Changes in the frequency or intensity of El Niño events forecast by climate models are not consistent (IPCC 2007b). El Niños are important because they are often associated with large-scale drought and floods in the tropics and heavy rains just outside the tropics, but projecting how the interaction between climate change and El Niño events will affect precipitation patterns is difficult. Another example of inconsistent results from models is that model simulations indicate that future hurricane frequency and average intensity could either increase or decrease (Emanuel et al. 2008), but it is likely that rainfall and top wind speeds in general will increase in a world of warmed ocean temperatures. For all of these different factors––temperature, precipitation patterns, sea-level rise and extreme events––both the magnitude and speed of change are important. For both ecosystems and human activities, a rapid rate of climate change presents challenges that are different from, but no less serious than, the challenges from a large amount of change (Schneider and Root 2001).

Introduction 13 Solid lines are multi-model global averages of surface warming for scenarios A2, A1B and B1, shown as continuations of the 20th-century simulations. These projections also take into account emissions of short-lived GHGs and aerosols. The pink line is not a scenario, but is for Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) simulations where atmospheric concentrations are held constant at year 2000 values. The bars at the right of the figure indicate the best estimate (solid line within each bar) and the likely range assessed for the six SRES marker scenarios at 2090-2099. All temperatures are relative to the period 1980-1999. SOURCE IPCC 2007b. FIGURE 6 Projected future temperatures. This figure shows projected trends of average global surface temperature, based on output from all of the major climate models, shown as continuations of the 20th century observations (with the average for 1980-1999 plotted as 0). The pink line represents what would happen if CO2 concentrations could be held constant at year 2000 levels. Scenarios B1, A1B and A2 represent alternative possible futures. A1B and B1 are futures with modest population growth, rapid economic growth, and a globally integrated economy, with A1B focusing on manufacturing and B1 focusing on service industries. A2 is a world with more rapid population growth but slower economic growth and less economic integration. The bars to the right of the graph represent the likely range of average global temperature from the same models in the years 2090-2099 for a wider range of possible futures, with the horizontal bar in the middle indicating the average across the models. As of 2006, actual CO2 emissions were higher than those in the A2 scenario, making the full range of scenarios look like underestimates, at least for the first years of the 21st century. (IPCC 2007b, Raupach et al. 2007).

14 Introduction Climate change can impact ecosystems in many ways Hundreds of studies have documented responses of ecosystems, plants, and animals to the climate changes that have already occurred (Parmesan 2006; Rosenzweig et al. 2007). These studies demonstrate many direct and indirect effects of climate change on ecosystems. Changes in temperature, for example, have been shown to affect ecosystems directly: the date when some plants bloom is occurring earlier in response to warmer temperatures and earlier springs. Extreme temperatures, both hot and cold, can be important causes of mortality, and small changes in extremes can sometimes determine whether a plant or animal survives and reproduces in a given location. Changes in temperature, especially when combined with changes in precipitation, can have indirect effects as well. For many plants and animals soil moisture is critically important for many life processes; changes in precipitation and in the rate of evaporation interact to determine whether moisture levels remain at a level suitable for various organisms. For fish and other aquatic organisms both water temperature and water flow are important and influenced by the combined effects of altered air temperatures and precipitation. For example, warmer, drier years in the northwestern United States, often associated with El Niño events and anticipated to be more common under many climate scenarios, have historically been associated with below- average snowpack, stream flow, and salmon survival (Mote 2003). Some salmon populations are especially sensitive to summer temperatures; others are sensitive to low stream-flow volumes in the fall (Crozier and Zabel 2006). The fact that climate change leads to rising seas means that organisms and ecosystems located in coastal zones between the ocean and terrestrial habitats are squeezed, especially when the coastal land is occupied by buildings or crops. The ecological impacts of climate change are not inherently beneficial or detrimental for an ecosystem. The concept that a change is beneficial or detrimental has meaning mainly from the human perspective. For an ecosystem, responses to climate change are simply shifts away from the state prior to human-caused climate change. Measured by particular ecosystem services, some changes could be beneficial; for example, warmer temperatures extend the growing season in some latitudes, and higher CO2 levels increase the growth of some land plants, with higher potential yields of food and forestry products (Nemani et al. 2003). Others are detrimental, for example, western mountain areas with a longer snow-free season are experiencing increased wildfires, reduced potential wood harvests, and loss of some recreational opportunities (Westerling et al. 2006). In some settings uncertainty about future ecosystem services may be a cost in itself, motivating investments that may not turn out to be necessary or that may be insufficient to effectively address changing needs. To date, many species have responded to the effects of climate change by extending their range boundaries both toward the poles (for example, northward in the U.S.) and up in elevation, and by shifting the timing of spring and autumn events. Plants and animals needing to move but prevented from doing so, for example, because appropriate habitat is not present at higher elevations, are at greater risk of extinction. Shifting species ranges, changes in the timing of biological events, and a greater risk of extinction all affect the ability of ecosystems to provide the critical services—products, regulation of the environment, enhanced human quality of life, and natural infrastructure—they have been providing.

Introduction 15 Ecosystems can adjust to change—over time Ecosystems are not static. They are collections of living organisms that grow and interact and die. Ecosystems encounter an ever changing landscape of weather conditions and various kinds of disturbances, both subtle and severe. Whatever conditions an ecosystem encounters, the individual organisms and species react to the changes in different ways. Ecosystems themselves do not move, individuals and species do; some species can move farther and faster than others, but some may not be able to move at all. For example, a long-lived tree species may take decades to spread to a new range, while an insect with many hatches per year could move quickly. A species that already lives on mountaintops may have nowhere else to retreat. Rapid and extreme disturbances can have major and long-lasting ecological impacts. For example, a severe drought, wildfire, or hurricane can fundamentally reshape an area, often for many decades. In one of the most dramatic examples the impact of an asteroid 65 million years ago is believed to have so radically changed conditions on Earth that the dominant animals, the dinosaurs, died off and were supplanted by mammals (Alvarez et al. 1990). On longer time scales, most places on Earth have experienced substantial climate changes. During the peak of the last ice age, approximately 21,000 years ago, most of Canada and the northern United States were under thousands of feet of ice (Jansen et al. 2007). Arctic vegetation thrived in Kentucky, and sea levels were about 120 m (400 ft) lower than at present. Over the past million years Earth has experienced a series of ice ages, separated by warmer conditions. Global average temperatures during these ice ages were about 4-7°C (7.2-12.6°F) cooler than present, with the cooling and warming occurring over many thousands of years (Jansen et al. 2007). These ice ages triggered extensive ecological responses, including large shifts in the distributions of plants and animals, as well as extinctions. The massive changes during past ice ages certainly pushed ecosystems off large swaths of Earth’s surface as ice- dominated landscapes advanced. However, these changes were generally slow enough that surviving species could move and reassemble into novel, as well as familiar-looking, ecosystems as the ice retreated (Pitelka et al. 1997; Overpeck et al. 2003). The 10,000 years since the last ice age have seen substantial regional and local climate variation, but on a global scale climate was relatively stable, and these regional climate changes did not drive species to extinction nor result in the scale of global ecosystem change seen during glacial-to-interglacial transitions. Even when the global climate is not changing noticeably, regional climate variability (droughts, storms, and heat waves) can have dramatic regional (often short-term) impacts. In a period of climate change it is important to remember that this climate variability will continue to occur on top of the more long-term human-caused climate changes. Data on ecosystem responses to disturbances in the distant past can provide valuable information about likely responses to current and future climate change. But it is important to recognize that the current rate of increase of CO2 in Earth’s atmosphere is faster than at any time measured in the past, indicating that human-caused global climate change in the current era is likely to be exceedingly rapid, many times faster than the long-term global changes associated with onset and termination of the ice ages (Jansen et al. 2007). One of the big concerns about the future is that climate changes in some places may be too fast for organisms to respond in the ways that have helped sustain ecosystem services in response to natural changes in the past. Understanding how quickly ecosystems can and cannot adjust is one of the key challenges in climate change research.

16 Introduction Climate change, other stresses, and the limits of ecosystem resilience Climate change is not the only way humans are affecting ecosystems. Humans have a large and pervasive influence on the planet. We use a substantial portion of the land for agriculture and the oceans for fishing (Worm et al. 2006; Ellis and Ramankutty 2008). Many rivers are dammed to provide water for crops or people, or they are polluted with fertilizer or other chemicals. Chemical residues and the by-products of industrial activity, from acid precipitation to ozone, affect plant growth. Human activities, especially land and ocean use, limit some opportunities for species migrations while opening routes for other species. Globally humans have moved many non-native species from one ecosystem to another. Ecosystems operate in a context of multiple human influences and interacting factors. Earth’s ecosystems are generally resilient to some range of changes in climate. A resilient ecosystem is one that can withstand a stress like pollution or rebuild after a major disturbance like a serious storm. A resilient ecosystem can cope with a drought or an unusually hot summer in ways that alter some aspects of ecosystem function but do not lead to a major shift in the type of ecosystem or the services it provides. Thus, a resilient ecosystem may not appear to be affected by modest or slow climate changes. But this resilience has limits. When a change exceeds those limits, or is coupled with other simultaneous changes that cause stress, the ecosystem undergoes a major change, often shifting to a fundamentally different ecosystem type. There is a threshold point when dramatic ecosystem transformations may occur (Gunderson and Pritchard 2002). These thresholds are like the top of a levee as the water level rises. As long as the water level is even slightly below the top of the levee, function is normal. But once it rises above the levee, there is a flood. This kind of threshold response is common in ecosystems, where extreme events like heat waves often serve as triggers for an irreversible transition of the ecosystem to a new state. Currently plants and animals are responding to rapid climate change while simultaneously coping with other human-created stresses such as habitat loss and fragmentation due to development, pollution, invasive species, and overharvesting. How do we know climate change itself is causing major changes in ecosystems? First, species changing their ranges in the Northern Hemisphere are almost uniformly moving their ranges northward and up in elevation in search of cooler temperatures (Parmesan and Yohe 2003; Parmesan 2006; Rosenzweig et al. 2007). If any or all of the other stressors were the major cause of ecosystem changes, plants and animals would move in many directions in addition to north, and to lower as well as higher elevations. Second, when we look at the association over time of changes between species ranges and temperatures modeled using only natural variation in climate, such as sunspots and volcanic dust in the stratosphere, the relationship is poor. When temperatures are modeled using natural variability as well as human-caused drivers, such as emission of CO2 and methane, the association is very strong. Consequently, humans are very likely causing changes in regional temperatures to which in turn the plants and animals are responding (Root et al. 2005).

The world's climate is changing, and it will continue to change throughout the 21st century and beyond. Rising temperatures, new precipitation patterns, and other changes are already affecting many aspects of human society and the natural world.

In this book, the National Research Council provides a broad overview of the ecological impacts of climate change, and a series of examples of impacts of different kinds. The book was written as a basis for a forthcoming illustrated booklet, designed to provide the public with accurate scientific information on this important subject.

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REVIEW article

This article is part of the research topic.

Climate Law and Policy 2023: A Proactive Retrospective on Intergovernmental Strategies

Public Health: a forgotten piece of the adaptation law puzzle Provisionally Accepted

  • 1 Faculty of Law, College of Arts, Law and Education, University of Tasmania, Australia
  • 2 Law School, Faculty of Arts, Business, Law and Economics, University of Adelaide, Australia

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

This paper uses the problem of extreme heat to illustrate the inadequacy of laws for protecting public health under climate change. Climate change is already having serious effects on public health. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report highlights significant adaptation gaps for human health protection, urging that public health adaptation must be 'proactive, timely and effective.'The law can be a powerful tool for advancing adaptation to protect public health, but there has been very little scholarly analysis of its potential, or whether in some circumstances it may promote maladaptation. For example, legal regimes for land use planning typically respect existing uses of property and make retrofitting for climate-proofing hard to mandate. These regimes can take many years to amend so new infrastructure continues to comply with outdated approaches, such as relying on air conditioning for cooling and offering limited shading. Laws also promote a focus on crisis management during a heat event but fail to promote the preventive action necessary to foster resilience.We present a case study of how the law exacerbates public health risks from extreme heat and falls short of facilitating adaptation in the Greater Western Sydney region of Australia, an area with a population of 2.6 million. In 2019, this area experienced a record near-surface air temperature of 52°C (125.6°F) causing significant adverse physical and mental health impacts. The public health impacts of extreme temperatures in this region are well documented, as are the increasing strains on emergency and health services. This case study demonstrates that laws could help to control heat in the landscape and secure the safety of vulnerable populations, but to do so they must prioritise adaptation to the health impacts of climate change.

Keywords: Public health1, law2, adaptation3, health impacts of climate change4, extreme heat5

Received: 14 Dec 2023; Accepted: 08 Mar 2024.

Copyright: © 2024 Boocock, McDonald and McCormack. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) . The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

* Correspondence: Mx. Jennifer Boocock, Faculty of Law, College of Arts, Law and Education, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia

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  • Award-winning research in the economics of climate change

Two innovative papers selected for the 2024 IRECC Award

introduction of research paper about climate change

To foster research into the nature and implications of climate change, IZA gives an award for “Innovative Research in the Economics of Climate Change” (IRECC) for the two best topical IZA Discussion Papers of the previous year. Worth 10,000 euros, the IRECC Award recognizes important new insights into the broader, often underestimated consequences of climate change and the effects of environmental policies on society and the labor market.

Real-world willingness to pay for carbon offsets

One of the two papers selected for the 2024 IRECC Award is “Willingness to Pay for Carbon Mitigation: Field Evidence from the Market for Carbon Offsets” (IZA DP No. 15939). In this study, Matthias Rodemeier sheds light on a crucial question: how much are people truly willing to pay to protect the environment? He does so by analyzing real-world behavior rather than hypothetical surveys.

Rodemeier examines the choices of over 250,000 German delivery service customers that were offered voluntary carbon offsets. Interestingly, consumer demand for offsets increased when prices were subsidized but not when the compensated amount of carbon was matched by the delivery service. However, transparency was key. When explicitly informed that the delivery service is matching the offsetting of emissions on its own costs, consumer behavior shifted dramatically. A salient 300% match of emissions boosted offset demand by 22%.

Thus, a simple intervention that advertises the firm’s participation in the offsetting costs makes subjects sensitive to the impact of carbon mitigation. The implied willingness to pay (WTP) for carbon mitigation increased from practically zero to €16 per tonne of CO2 (tCO2).

Two additional surveys reveal that the increase in WTP due to the firm’s contribution is mostly driven by fairness preferences and not by a higher intrinsic valuation for carbon mitigation.

This research further exposes a significant gap between what people say they would pay in surveys (hypothetical WTP) and what they actually do (revealed preferences). In this case, hypothetical WTP averaged €238/tCO2 – a staggering 1,338% higher than revealed preferences. This highlights the importance of using real-world behavior to understand true environmental values.

Long-term economic and social effects of climate change

The second award-winning paper, “The Effects of Climate Change in the Poorest Countries: Evidence from the Permanent Shrinking of Lake Chad” (IZA DP No. 16396) by Remi Jedwab, Federico Haslop, Roman Zarate, and Carlos Rodriguez Castelan , tackles a neglected aspect of climate change: its slow, gradual effects on societies. The research uses the dramatic decline of Lake Chad – once the world’s 11th largest – as a case study.

Lake Chad shrunk by 90% between 1963 and 1990 due to external factors. While water supply decreased, land supply increased, which could in theory generate both negative and positive economic effects. The researchers innovatively compiled population data for nearby regions across four African nations (Cameroon, Chad, Nigeria, and Niger) spanning from the 1940s to the 2010s.

Their findings are concerning. Population growth near the lake slowed significantly only after the shrinkage began. This implies limited ability for communities to adapt. Furthermore, the negative impacts on livelihoods – fishing, farming, and herding – outweighed any potential benefits from the newly exposed land.

The study employs a spatial model to estimate welfare losses, considering potential adaptation. The results show an overall decline of 6%, with Chad experiencing the most significant impact (9%). The model further explores the potential effects of various policies – migration, land use, trade, infrastructure, and urbanization – to understand how these factors might influence the situation.

The limited effectiveness of adaptation strategies in this case underscores the vulnerability of the poorest countries to climate change. These findings have broad implications for designing policies to support these nations in facing the challenges of a changing climate.

The IRECC winners “represent the best of modern applied-economics research,” according to the award committee made up of Susana Ferreira (University of Georgia) and Andrew Oswald (IZA and University of Warwick).

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introduction of research paper about climate change

Introducing the NWT Climate Change Library

Yellowknife — March 6, 2024

A new, online technical library a wealth of knowledge on climate change and action in the Northwest Territories (NWT) is now live.

Launched on March 1 at the NWT Association of Communities Annual General Meeting in Hay River, the NWT Climate Change Library houses scientific information, research papers, technical reports and innovative tools from government and beyond in one central location. The platform aims to provide climate research, information and knowledge to those who are working to find solutions to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the NWT. 

The intent of the new library is to empower users – from researchers, to students, to communities, to the public – as they seek to understand, combat and adapt to the effects of climate change.  Key features include:

  • Comprehensive Information: The library houses an extensive collection of peer-reviewed articles, reports and technical documents covering various aspects of climate change, including mitigation strategies, adaptation techniques and climate modeling.
  • User-Friendly Interface: The platform is designed to be accessible to a diverse audience. Whether you’re an experienced researcher or someone new to the field, you’ll find the library easy to navigate.
  • Search and Filter Functionality: Robust search and filter options make it easy to pinpoint the information you need.
  • Cutting-Edge Research: The library features the latest findings from academic institutions and scientists, ensuring users have access to the most up-to-date climate data.
  • Open Access: In a commitment to knowledge sharing, the content is open access, making it accessible to all audiences.

 “The NWT Climate Change Library is more than just a collection of information. It’s a platform for collaboration, innovation and collective action on climate change. By providing easy access to research and fostering knowledge exchange, we can accelerate progress in addressing climate change in the North.”

- Jay Macdonald , Minister of Environment and Climate Change

Quick facts

  • The library currently has over 200 resources uploaded and categorized. More are being added regularly.
  • To ensure users have access to the most up-to-date climate information, the library features the latest findings from academic institutions and scientists.
  • In a commitment to knowledge sharing, the content is open access, making it accessible to all audiences.

Related links

  • NWT Climate Change Library
  • Climate Change Strategic Framework

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