climate change research title ideas

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Climate Change Topics for Short Essays

Perhaps, your educator has asked you to write a short essay on climate change. Maybe you’re yet to decide what to write about because every topic you think about seems to have been written about. In that case, use this list of climate change topics for inspiration. You can write about one of these topics or develop it to make it more unique.

How climate change is responsible for the disappearing rainforest
The effects of global warming on air quality within the urban areas
Global warming and greenhouse emissions- Possible health risks
Is climate change responsible for irregular weather patterns?
How has climate change affected the food chain?
The negative effects of climate change on human wellbeing
How global warming affects agriculture
How climate change works
Why is climate change dangerous to human health?
How to minimize global warming effects on human health
How global warming affects the healthcare
Effects of climate change of life quality in rural and urban areas
How warmer temperatures support allergy-related illnesses
How climate change is a risk to life on earth
How climate change and natural disasters correlate
How climate change affects the population of the earth
How climate change relates to global warming
How global warming has caused extreme heating in most urban areas
How wildfires relate to climate change
How ocean acidification and climate change affect the world’s habitat

These climate change essay topics cover different aspects of human activities and their effects on the earth’s ecosystem. As such, writing a research paper or essay on any of these topics requires extensive research and analysis of information. That’s the only way you can come up with a solid paper that will impress the educator to award you the top grade.

Climate Change Issues that Make for Good Topics

Maybe you want to research issues that relate to climate change. Most people may have not considered such issues but they are worthy of climate change debate topics. In that case, consider these issues when choosing your climate topics for papers and essays.

Climate change and threat to natural biodiversity are equally important
Climate change in Miami and Saudi Arabia- How the effects compare
Climate change as a human activity’s effect on the environment
Preventing climate change by protecting forests
Climate change in China- How the country has declined to head to the global call about saving Mother Nature
Common causes of climate change
Common effects of climate change
The definition of climate change
What is anthropogenic climate change
Describe climate change
What drives climate change?
Renewable energy sources and climate change
Human and economics induced climate change
Climate change biology
Climate change and business
Science, Spin, and climate change
Climate change- How global warming affects populations
Climate change and social concepts
Extreme weather and climate change- How they relate
Global warming as a complex issue in climate change

These are great climate change topics for research papers and essays. However, writing about these topics requires extensive research. You should also be ready to spend energy and time finding relevant and latest sources of information before you write about these topics.

Interesting Climate Change Topics for Papers and Essays

Perhaps, you want to write an essay or paper about something interesting. In that case, consider this list of interesting climate change research paper topics.

Climate change across the globe- What experts say
Development, climate change, and disaster reduction
Critical review- Climate change and agriculture
Schools should include climate change as a subject in geography courses
Consumption and climate change- How the wind blows in Indiana
How the United Nations responds to climate change
Snowpack and climate change
How climate change threatens global security
The effects of climate change on coastal areas’ tourism
How climate change relates to Queensland Australia’s floods
How climate change affects the tourism and hospitality industry
Possible strategies for addressing the effects of climate change on urban areas
How climate change affects indigenous people
How to avoid the threats of climate change
How climate change affects coral triangle turtles
Climate change drivers in the Asian countries
Economic discourse analysis methodology in climate change
How climate change affects New Hampshire businesses
How climate change affects the life of an individual
The economic cost of the effects of climate change

These are fantastic climate change paper topics to explore. Nevertheless, you must be ready to research your topic extensively before you start writing your academic paper or essay.

Major Topics on Climate Change for Academic Writing

Perhaps, you’re looking for topics related to climate change that you write major papers about. In that case, you should consider these global climate change topics.

Early science on climate change
How the world can manage the effects of climate change
Environmental issues relating to climate change
Views comparison about the climate change problem
Asset-based community development and climate change
Experts’ evaluation of climate change
How science affects climate change
How climate change affects the ocean life
Scotland’s vulnerability to climate change
How energy conservation can solve the climate change problem
How climate change affects the world economy
International collaboration and climate change
International relations view on climate change
How transportation affects climate change
Climate change and technology
Climate change policies and human rights
Climate change from an anthropological perspective
Climate change as an international security issue
Role of the United Nations in addressing climate change
Climate change and pollution

This category has some of the best climate change thesis topics. That’s because most people will be interested in reading papers on such topics due to their global perspectives. Nevertheless, you should prepare to spend a significant amount of time researching and writing about any of these topics on climate change.

Climate Change Topics for Presentation

Perhaps, you want to write papers on topics related to climate change for presentation purposes. In that case, you need topics that most people can resonate with. Here is a list of topics about climate change that will interest most people.

How can humans stop global warming in the next ten years
Could humans have stopped global warming a decade ago?
How has the environment changed over the years and how has this change caused global warming?
How did the Obama administration try to limit climate change?
What is the influence of chemical engineering on global warming?
How is urbanization connected to climate change?
Theories that explain why some nations ignore climate change
How global warming affects the rising sea levels
How anthropogenic and natural climate change differ
How the war against terrorism differs from the war on climate change
How atmospheric change influences global climate change
Negative effects of global climate change on Minnesota
The greenhouse effect and ozone depletion
How greenhouse affects the earth’s environment
How can individuals reduce the emissions of greenhouse gasses
How climate change will affect humans in their lifetime
What are the social, physical, and economic effects of climate change
Problems and solutions to climate change on the Pacific Ocean
How climate change relates to species’ extinction
How the phenomenon of denying climate change affects animals

This list prepared by our research helpers has some of the best essay topics on climate change. Pick one of these ideas, research it, and then compose a winning paper.

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The Top 10 Most Interesting Climate Change Research Topics

Finishing your environmental science degree may require you to write about climate change research topics. For example, students pursuing a career as environmental scientists may focus their research on environmental-climate sensitivity or those studying to become conservation scientists will focus on ways to improve the quality of natural resources.

Climate change research paper topics vary from anthropogenic climate to physical risks of abrupt climate change. Papers should focus on a specific climate change research question. Read on to learn more about examples of climate change research topics and questions.

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What makes a strong climate change research topic.

A strong climate change research paper topic should be precise in order for others to understand your research. You must use research methods to find topics that discuss a concern about climate issues. Your broader topic should be of current importance and a well-defined discourse on climate change.

Tips for Choosing a Climate Change Research Topic

Research what environmental scientists say. Environmental scientists study ecological problems. Their studies include the threat of climate change on environmental issues. Studies completed by these professionals are a good starting point.
Use original research to review articles for sources. Starting with a general search is a good place to get ideas. However, as you begin to refine your search, use original research papers that have passed through the stage of peer review.
Discover the current climatic conditions of the research area. The issue of climate change affects each area differently. Gather information on the current climate and historical climate conditions to help bolster your research.
Consider current issues of climate change. You want your analyses on climate change to be current. Using historical data can help you delve deep into climate change effects. First, however, it needs to back up climate change risks.
Research the climate model evaluation options. There are different approaches to climate change evaluation. Choosing the right climate model evaluation system will help solidify your research.

What’s the Difference Between a Research Topic and a Research Question?

A research topic is a broad area of study that can encompass several different issues. An example might be the key role of climate change in the United States. While this topic might make for a good paper, it is too broad and must be narrowed to be written effectively.

A research question narrows the topic down to one or two points. The question provides a framework from which to start building your paper. The answers to your research question create the substance of your paper as you report the findings.

How to Create Strong Climate Change Research Questions

To create a strong climate change research question, start settling on the broader topic. Once you decide on a topic, use your research skills and make notes about issues or debates that may make an interesting paper. Then, narrow your ideas down into a niche that you can address with theoretical or practical research.

2. Economic Impact of Climate Change

Climate can have a negative effect on both local and global economies. While the costs may vary greatly, even a slight change could cost the United States a loss in the Global Domestic Product (GDP). For example, rising sea levels may damage the fiber optic infrastructure the world relies on for trade and communication.

3. Solutions for Reducing the Effect of Future Climate Conditions

Solutions for reducing the effect of future climate conditions range from reducing the reliance on fossil fuels to reducing the number of children you have. Some of these solutions to climate change are radical ideas and may not be accepted by the general population.

4. Federal Government Climate Policy

The United States government’s climate policy is extensive. The climate policy is the federal government’s action for climate change and how it hopes to make an impact. It includes adopting the use of electric vehicles instead of gas-powered cars. It also includes the use of alternative energy systems such as wind energy.

5. Understanding of Climate Change

Understanding climate change is a broad climate change research topic. With this, you can introduce different research methods for tracking climate change and showing a focused effect on specific areas, such as the impact on water availability in certain geographic areas.

6. Carbon Emissions Impact of Climate Change

Carbon emissions are a major factor in climate change. Due to the greenhouse effect they cause, the world is seeing a higher number of devastating weather events. An increase in the number and intensity of tsunamis, hurricanes, and tornados are some of the results.

7. Evidence of Climate Change

There is ample evidence of climate change available, thanks to the scientific community. However, some of these implications of climate change are hotly contested by those with poor views about climate scientists. Proof of climate change includes satellite images, ice cores, and retreating glaciers.

8. Cause and Mitigation of Climate Change

The causes of climate change can be either human activities or natural causes. Greenhouse gas emissions are an example of how human activities can alter the world’s climate. However, natural causes such as volcanic and solar activity are also issues. Mitigation plans for these effects may include options for both causes.

9. Health Threats and Climate Change

Climate change can have an adverse effect on human health. The impacts on health from climate change can include extreme heat, air pollution, and increasing allergies. The CDC warns these changes can cause respiratory threats, cardiovascular issues, and heat-related illnesses.

10. Industrial Pollution and the Effects of Climate Change

Just as car emissions can have an adverse effect on the climate, so can industrial pollution. It is one of the leading factors in greenhouse gas effects on average temperature. While the US has played a key role in curtailing industrial pollution, other countries need to follow suit to mitigate the negative impacts it causes.

Climate Change Research Questions

What are some mitigation and adaptation to climate change options for farmers?
How do alternative energy sources play a role in climate change?
Do federal policies on climate change help reduce carbon emissions?
What impacts of climate change affect the environment?
Do climate change and social movements mean the end of travel?

Choosing the Right Climate Change Research Topic

Choosing the correct climate change research paper topic takes continuous research and refining. Your topic starts as a general overview of an area of climate change. Then, after extensive research, you can narrow it down to a specific question.

You need to ensure that your research is timely, however. For example, you don’t want to address the effects of climate change on natural resources from 15 or 20 years ago. Instead, you want to focus on views about climate change from resources within the last five years.

Climate Change Research Topics FAQ

A climate change research paper has five parts, beginning with introducing the problem and background before moving into a review of related sources. After reviewing, share methods and procedures, followed by data analysis . Finally, conclude with a summary and recommendations.

A thesis statement presents the topic of your paper to the reader. It also helps you as you begin to organize your paper, much like a mission statement. Therefore, your thesis statement may change during writing as you start to present your arguments.

According to the US Forest Service, climate change issues are related to topics regarding forest management, biodiversity, and species distribution. Climate change is a broad focus that affects many topics.

To write a research paper title, a good strategy is not to write the title right away. Instead, wait until the end after you finish everything else. Then use a short and to-the-point phrase that summarizes your document. Use keywords from the paper and avoid jargon.

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337 Climate Change Research Topics & Examples

You will notice that there are many climate change research topics you can discuss. Our team has prepared this compilation of 185 ideas that you can use in your work.

📝 Key Points to Use to Write an Outstanding Climate Change Essay

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A climate change essay is familiar to most students who learn biology, ecology, and politics. In order to write a great essay on climate change, you need to explore the topic in great detail and show your understanding of it.

This article will provide you with some key points that you could use in your paper to make it engaging and compelling.

First of all, explore the factors contributing to climate change. Most people know that climate change is associated with pollution, but it is essential to examine the bigger picture. Consider the following questions:

What is the mechanism by which climate change occurs?
How do the activities of large corporations contribute to climate change?
Why is the issue of deforestation essential to climate change?
How do people’s daily activities promote climate change?

Secondly, you can focus on solutions to the problems outlined above.

Climate change essay topics often provide recommendations on how individuals and corporations could reduce their environmental impact. These questions may help to guide you through this section:

How can large corporations decrease the influence of their operations on the environment?
Can you think of any examples of corporations who have successfully decreased their environmental footprint?
What steps can people take to reduce pollution and waste as part of their daily routine?
Do you believe that trends such as reforestation and renewable energy will help to stop climate change? Why or why not?
Can climate change be reversed at all, or is it an inescapable trend?

In connection with these topics, you could also discuss various government policies to address climate change. Over the past decades, many countries enacted laws to reduce environmental damage. There are plenty of ideas that you could address here:

What are some famous national policies for environmental protection?
Are laws and regulations effective in protecting the environment? Why or why not?
How do environmentally-friendly policies affect individuals and businesses?
Are there any climate change graphs that show the effectiveness of national policies for reducing environmental damage?
How could government policies on climate change be improved?

Despite the fact that there is definite proof of climate change, the concept is opposed by certain politicians, business persons, and even scientists.

You could address the opposition to climate change in your essay and consider the following:

Why do some people think that climate change is not real?
What is the ultimate proof of climate change?
Why is it beneficial for politicians and business persons to argue against climate change?
Do you think that climate change is a real issue? Why or why not?

The impact of ecological damage on people, animals, and plants is the focus of most essay titles on global warming and climate change. Indeed, describing climate change effects in detail could earn you some extra marks. Use scholarly resources to research these climate change essay questions:

How has climate change impacted wildlife already?
If climate change advances at the same pace, what will be the consequences for people?
Besides climate change, what are the impacts of water and air pollution? What does the recent United Nations’ report on climate change say about its effects?
In your opinion, could climate change lead to the end of life on Earth? Why or why not?

Covering at least some of the points discussed in this post will help you write an excellent climate change paper! Don’t forget to search our website for more useful materials, including a climate change essay outline, sample papers, and much more!

Climate Change – Problems and Solutions It is important to avoid cutting trees and reduce the utilization of energy to protect the environment. Many organizations have been developed to enhance innovation and technology in the innovation of eco-friendly machines.
Is Climate Change a Real Threat? Climate change is a threat, but its impact is not as critical as wrong political decisions, poor social support, and unstable economics.
Causes and Effects of Climate Changes Climate change is the transformation in the distribution patterns of weather or changes in average weather conditions of a place or the whole world over long periods.
Climate Change: Human Impact on the Environment This paper is an in-depth exploration of the effects that human activities have had on the environment, and the way the same is captured in the movie, The Eleventh Hour.
Climate Change Causes and Predictions These changes are as a result of the changes in the factors which determine the amount of sunlight that gets to the earth surface.
The Impact of Climate Change on Food Security Currently, the world is beginning to encounter the effects of the continuous warming of the Earth. Some of the heat must be reflected in space to ensure that there is a temperature balance in the […]
Climate Change and Extreme Weather Conditions The agreement across the board is that human activities such as emissions of the greenhouse gases have contributed to global warming.
Global Warming and Human Impact: Pros and Cons These points include the movement of gases in the atmosphere as a result of certain human activities, the increase of the temperature because of greenhouse gas emissions, and the rise of the oceans’ level that […]
Climate Change, Development and Disaster Risk Reduction However, the increased cases of droughts, storms, and very high rainfalls in different places are indicative of the culmination of the effects of climate change, and major disasters are yet to follow in the future.
Climate Change: Mitigation Strategies To address the latter views, the current essay will show that the temperature issue exists and poses a serious threat to the planet.
The Role of Technology in Climate Change The latter is people’s addiction, obsession, and ingenuity when it comes to technology, which was the main cause of climate change and will be the primary solution to it as well.
Research Driven Critique: Steven Maher and Climate Change The ravaging effects of Covid-19 must not distract the world from the impending ramifications of severe environmental and climatic events that shaped the lives of a significant portion of the population in the past year.
The Climate Change Articles Comparison In a broader sense, both articles address the concept of sustainability and the means of reinforcing its significance in the context of modern global society to prevent further deterioration of the environment from happening.
Transportation Impact on Climate Change It is apparent that the number of motor vehicles in the world is increasing by the day, and this translates to an increase in the amount of pollutants produced by the transportation industry annually.
Climate Change Impacts on Ocean Life The destruction of the ozone layer has led to the exposure of the earth to harmful radiation from the sun. The rising temperatures in the oceans hinder the upward flow of nutrients from the seabed […]
Global Warming and Effects Within 50 Years Global warming by few Scientists is often known as “climate change” the reason being is that according to the global warming is not the warming of earth it basically is the misbalance in climate.
Climate Change: The Day After Tomorrow In the beginning of the film “The Day After Tomorrow”, the main character, Professor Jack Hall, is trying to warn the world of the drastic consequences of a changing climate being caused by the polluting […]
Climate Change: Is Capitalism the Problem or the Solution? This means that capitalism, which is the ability to produce wealth lies in the solution and also the causes of the current global climatic governance.
Climate Change Definition and Description The wind patterns, the temperature and the amount of rainfall are used to determine the changes in temperature. Usually, the atmosphere changes in a way that the energy of the sun absorbed by the atmosphere […]
Anthropogenic Climate Change Since anthropogenic climate change occurs due to the cumulative effect of greenhouse gases, it is imperative that climatologists focus on both immediate and long term interventions to avert future crises of global warming that seem […]
Global Warming as Serious Threat to Humanity One of the most critical aspects of global warming is the inability of populations to predict, manage, and decrease natural disruptions due to their inconsistency and poor cooperation between available resources.
The Negative Effects of Climate Change in Cities This is exemplified by the seasonal hurricanes in the USA and the surrounding regions, the hurricanes of which have destroyed houses and roads in the past.
Climate Change and Renewable Energy Options The existence of various classes of world economies in the rural setting and the rise of the middle class economies has put more pressure on environmental services that are highly demanded and the use of […]
Energy Conservation for Solving Climate Change Problem The United States Environmental Protection Agency reports that of all the ways energy is used in America, about 39% is used to generate electricity.
Climate Change – Global Warming For instance, in the last one century, scientists have directly linked the concentration of these gases in the atmosphere with the increase in temperature of the earth.
Climate Change and Role of Government He considers that the forest’s preservation is vital, as it is the wellspring of our human well-being. As such, the legislature can pass policies that would contribute to safeguarding our nation’s well-being, but they do […]
Technology Influence on Climate Change Undoubtedly, global warming is a portrayal of climate change in the modern world and hence the need for appropriate interventions to foster the sustainability of the environment.
Environmental Perils: Climate Change Issue Many people have been lamenting over the issue of the climate crisis, For instance, Mindy Lubber, a former regional administrator of the United States Environmental Protection Agency, delivered a speech in October 2008 at a […]
Climate Change and Its Impacts on the UAE Currently, the rise in temperature in the Arctic is contributing to the melting of the ice sheets. The long-range weather forecast indicates that the majority of the coastal areas in the UAE are at the […]
Diets and Climate Change Thus, changing the diet is a feasible method to address the problem of climate change. One of the ways I try to minimize my environmental impact is to eat less meat.
The Role of Science and Technology in International Relations Regarding Climate Change This paper examines the role of science and technology as it has been used to address the challenge of climate change, which is one of the major issues affecting the global societies today.
The Straw Man Fallacy in the Topic of Climate Change The straw man fallacy is a type of logical fallacy whereby one person misrepresents their opponent’s question or argument to make it easier to respond.
The Key Drivers of Climate Change The use of fossil fuel in building cooling and heating, transportation, and in the manufacture of goods leads to an increase in the amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere.
Saving the Forest and Climate Changes The greenhouse gases from such emissions play a key role in the depletion of the most essential ozone layer, thereby increasing the solar heating effect on the adjacent Earth’s surface as well as the rate […]
Maize Production and Climate Change in South Africa Maize farming covers 58% of the crop area in South Africa and 60% of this is in drier areas of the country.
Climate Change Impacts on the Aviation Industry The last two research questions focus on investigating the challenges experienced by stakeholders in the aviation industry in reducing the carbon blueprint of the sector and discussing additional steps the aviation industry can take to […]
Climate Change Impact on Bangladesh Today, there are a lot of scientists from the fields of ecology and meteorology who are monitoring the changes of climate in various regions of the world.
Social Concepts and Climate Change All these are illustrations that climate change is real and skeptics of the process have no sound grounds to support their argument.
Tourism and Climate Change Problem There are a number of factors that propelled the growth of tourism and these factors include the improvement of the standards of living in many developed nations, good work polices allowing more time for vacations […]
Climate Change’s Impact on Crop Production I will address the inefficiencies of water use in our food production systems, food waste, and the impact of temperature on crop yield.
Wildfires and Impact of Climate Change Climate change has played a significant role in raise the likelihood and size of wildfires around the world. Climate change causes more moisture to evaporate from the earth, drying up the soil and making vegetation […]
Personal Insight: Climate Change To my mind, economic implications are one of the most concerning because the economy is one of the pillars of modern society.
China Climate Change Majority of developed and developing countries for example, the U.S.and China have failed to heed to the call of the need to save Mother Nature through implementation of pollution mitigating measures, for example, the Kyoto […]
Climate Change and Threat to Animals In the coming years, the increase in the global temperatures will make many living populations less able to adapt to the emergent conditions or to migrate to other regions that are suitable for their survival.
Environmental Issue – Climate Change If the right measures are put in place, our environment will be regenerated and the continued alterations to the climate will eventually stop.
Impact of Food Waste on Climate Change In conclusion, I believe that some of the measures that can be taken to prevent food waste are calculating the population and their needs.
Climate Change and Resource Sustainability in Balkan: How Quickly the Impact is Happening In addition, regarding the relief of the Balkans, their territory is dominated by a large number of mountains and hills, especially in the west, among which the northern boundary extends to the Julian Alps and […]
Climate Change: Renewable Energy Sources Climate change is the biggest threat to humanity, and deforestation and “oil dependency” only exacerbate the situation and rapidly kill people. Therefore it is important to invest in the development of renewable energy sources.
Climate Change and the Allegory of the Cave Plato’s allegory of the cave reflects well our current relationship with the environment and ways to find a better way to live in the world and live with it.
Climate Change, Economy, and Environment Central to the sociological approach to climate change is studying the relationship between the economy and the environment. Another critical area of sociologists ‘ attention is the relationship between inequality and the environment.
The Three Myths of Climate Change In the video, Linda Mortsch debunks three fundamental misconceptions people have regarding climate change and sets the record straight that the phenomenon is happening now, affects everyone, and is not easy to adapt.
Terrorism, Corruption, and Climate Change as Threats Therefore, threats affecting countries around the globe include terrorism, corruption, and climate change that can be mitigated through integrated counter-terror mechanisms, severe punishment for dishonest practices, and creating awareness of safe practices.
Climate Change’s Impact on Hendra Virus Transmission to humans occurs once people are exposed to an infected horse’s body fluids, excretions, and tissues. Land clearing in giant fruit bats’ habitats has exacerbated food shortages due to climate change, which has led […]
Global Climate Change and Environmental Conservation There may be a significantly lesser possibility that skeptics will acknowledge the facts and implications of climate change, which may result in a lower desire on their part to adopt adaptation. The climate of Minnesota […]
Beef Production’s Impact on Climate Change This industry is detrimental to the state of the planet and, in the long term, can lead to irreversible consequences. It is important to monitor the possible consequences and reduce the consumption of beef.
Cities and Climate Change: Articles Summary The exponential population growth in the United States of America and the energy demands put the nation in a dilemma. Climate change challenges are experienced as a result of an increase in greenhouse gas emissions […]
The Impact of Climate Change on Vulnerable Human Populations The fact that the rise in temperatures caused by the greenhouse effect is a threat to humans development has focused global attention on the “emissions generated from the combustion” of fossil fuels.
Climate Change and Food Waste Management Climate change is an international challenge that is reinforced by FW, indicating that FW management can help in maintaining the further worsening of the environment.
How Aviation Impacts Climate Change A measurement of the earth’s radiation budget imbalance brought on by changes in the quantities of gases and aerosols or cloudiness is known as radiative forcing.
Food Waste Management: Impact on Sustainability and Climate Change How effective is composting food waste in enhancing sustainability and reducing the effects of climate change? The following key terms are used to identify and scrutinize references and study materials.”Food waste” and sustain* “Food waste” […]
Protecting the Environment Against Climate Change The destruction of the ozone layer, which helps in filtering the excessive ray of light and heat from the sun, expose people to some skin cancer and causes drought.
The Global Warming Problem and Solution Therefore, it is essential to make radical decisions, first of all, to reduce the use of fossil fuels such as oil, carbon, and natural gas. One of the ways of struggle is to protest in […]
Climate Change and Immigration Issues Due to its extensive coverage of the aspects of climate migration, the article will be significant to the research process in acquiring a better understanding of the effects of climate change on different people from […]
Global Warming: Speculation and Biased Information For example, people or organizations that deny the extent or existence of global warming may finance the creation and dissemination of incorrect information.
Impacts of Climate Change on Ocean The development of phytoplankton is sensitive to the temperature of the ocean. Some marine life is leaving the ocean due to the rising water temperature.
Impact of Climate Change on the Mining Sector After studying the necessary information on the topic of sustainability and Sustainability reports, the organization was allocated one of the activities that it performs to maintain it.
Climate Change: Historical Background and Social Values The Presidential and Congress elections in the US were usually accompanied by the increased interest in the issue of climate change in the 2010s.
Communities and Climate Change Article by Kehoe In the article, he describes the stringent living conditions of the First Nations communities and estimates the dangers of climate change for these remote areas.
Discussion: Reverting Climate Change Undertaking some of these activities requires a lot of finances that have seen governments setting aside funds to help in the budgeting and planning of the institutions.
Was Climate Change Affecting Species? It was used because it helps establish the significance of the research topic and describes the specific effects of climate change on species.
Climate Change Attitudes and Counteractions The argument is constructed around the assumption that the deteriorating conditions of climate will soon become one of the main reasons why many people decide to migrate to other places.
How Climate Change Could Impact the Global Economy In “This is How Climate Change Could Affect the World Economy,” Natalie Marchand draws attention to the fact that over the next 30 years, global GDP will shrink by up to 18% if global temperatures […]
Effective Policy Sets to Curb Climate Change A low population and economic growth significantly reduce climate change while reducing deforestation and methane gas, further slowing climate change. The world should adopt this model and effectively increase renewable use to fight climate change.
Climate Change: Social-Ecological Systems Framework One of the ways to understand and assess the technogenic impact on various ecological systems is to apply the Social-Ecological Systems Framework.
The Climate Change Mitigation Issues Indeed, from the utilitarian perspective, the current state of affairs is beneficial only for the small percentage of the world population that mostly resides in developed countries.
The Dangers of Global Warming: Environmental and Economic Collapse Global warming is caused by the so-called ‘Greenhouse effect’, when gases in Earth’s atmosphere, such as water vapor or methane, let the Sun’s light enter the planet but keep some of its heat in.
Effects of Climate Change on Health The cornerstones of human health are the ability to satisfy hunger and quench thirst; however, climate change factors in the disruption of these pillars.
Aviation, Climate Change, and Better Engine Designs: Reducing CO2 Emissions The presence of increasing levels of CO2 and other oxides led to the deterioration of the ozone layer. More clients and partners in the industry were becoming aware and willing to pursue the issue of […]
Climate Change as a Problem for Businesses and How to Manage It Additionally, some businesses are directly contributing to climate change due to a lack of measures that will minimise the emission of carbon.
Climate Change and Disease-Carrying Insects In order to prevent the spreading of the viruses through insects, the governments should implement policies against the emissions which contribute to the growth of the insects’ populations.
Aspects of Global Warming Global warming refers to the steadily increasing temperature of the Earth, while climate change is how global warming changes the weather and climate of the planet.
David Lammy on Climate Change and Racial Justice However, Lammy argues that people of color living in the global south and urban areas are the ones who are most affected by the climate emergency.
Moral Aspects of Climate Change Addresses However, these approaches are anthropocentric because they intend to alleviate the level of human destruction to the environment, but place human beings and their economic development at the center of all initiatives.
Feminism: A Road Map to Overcoming COVID-19 and Climate Change By exposing how individuals relate to one another as humans, institutions, and organizations, feminism aids in the identification of these frequent dimensions of suffering.
Global Warming: Moral and Political Challenge That is, if the politicians were to advocate the preservation of the environment, they would encourage businesses completely to adopt alternative methods and careful usage of resources.
Climate Change: Inconsistencies in Reporting An alternative route that may be taken is to engage in honest debates about the issue, which will reduce alarmism and defeatism.
The Climate Change Situation in the World There is still an opportunity to mitigate the consequences to avoid the worst. By saving energy, eating proper food, and leading healthy lifestyles, individuals can contribute to the change of climate.
Climate Change: The Chornobyl Nuclear Accident Also, I want to investigate the reasons behind the decision of the USSR government to conceal the truth and not let people save their lives.
“World on the Edge”: Managing the Causes of Climate Change Brown’s main idea is to show the possibility of an extremely unfortunate outcome in the future as a result of the development of local agricultural problems – China, Iran, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and others – […]
Impact of Climate Change in Modern World It should be noted that climate change is one of the most important challenges of modernity, and properly addressing the problem is of paramount relevance for the future of humanity’s development and civilization.
Gendering Climate Change: Geographical Insights In the given article, the author discusses the implications of climate change on gender and social relations and encourages scholars and activists to think critically and engage in debates on a global scale.
Climate Change and Its Consequences for Oklahoma This concept can be defined as a rise in the Earth’s temperature due to anthropogenic activity, resulting in alteration of usual weather in various parts of the planet.
Importance of Climate Change for Public Health Introducing more green areas, trees, and plants is the tactic that the Harris County Public Health Department suggests for mitigating the health implications of climate change.
Climate Change Impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa This is why I believe it is necessary to conduct careful, thorough research on why climate change is a threat to our planet and how to stop it.
Climate Change: Global Warming Intensity Average temperatures on Earth are rising faster than at any time in the past 2,000 years, and the last five of them have been the hottest in the history of meteorological observations since 1850.
The Negative Results of Climate Change Climate change refers to the rise of the sea due to hot oceans expanding and the melting of ice sheets and glaciers.
Addressing Climate Change: The Collective Action Problem While all the nations agree that climate change is a source of substantial harm to the economy, the environment, and public health, not all countries have similar incentives for addressing the problem. Addressing the problem […]
Health Issues on the Climate Change However, the mortality rate of air pollution in the United States is relatively low compared to the rest of the world.
Collective Climate Change Responsibility The fact is that individuals are not the most critical contributors to the climate crisis, and while ditching the plastic straw might feel good on a personal level, it will not solve the situation.
Climate Change and Challenges in Miami, Florida The issue of poor environment maintenance in Miami, Florida, has led to climate change, resulting in sea-level rise, an increase of flood levels, and droughts, and warmer temperatures in the area.
Global Perspectives in the Climate Change Strategy It is required to provide an overview of those programs and schemes of actions that were used in the local, federal and global policies of the countries of the world to combat air pollution.
Global Warming and Climate Change: Annotated Bibliography The author shows the tragedy of the situation with climate change by the example of birds that arrived too early from the South, as the buds begin to bloom, although it is still icy.
Climate Change as Systemic Risk of Globalization However, the integration became more complex and rapid over the years, making it systemic due to the higher number of internal connections.
Impact of Climate Change on Increased Wildfires Over the past decades, America has experienced the most severe fires in its history regarding the coverage of affected areas and the cost of damage.
Creating a Policy Briefing Book: Climate Change in China After that, a necessary step included the evaluation of the data gathered and the development of a summary that perfectly demonstrated the crucial points of this complication.
Natural Climate Solutions for Climate Change in China The social system and its response to climate change are directly related to the well-being, economic status, and quality of life of the population.
Climate Change and Limiting the Fuel-Powered Transportation When considering the options for limiting the extent of the usage of fuel-powered vehicles, one should pay attention to the use of personal vehicles and the propensity among most citizens to prefer diesel cars as […]
Climate Change Laboratory Report To determine the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causing global warming in the next ten decades, if the estimated rate of deforestation is maintained.
Climate Change: Causes, Impact on People and the Environment Climate change is the alteration of the normal climatic conditions in the earth, and it occurs over some time. In as much as there are arguments based around the subject, it is mainly caused by […]
Climate Change and Stabilization Wages The more the annual road activity indicates that more cars traversed throughout a fiscal year, the higher the size of the annual fuel consumption. The Carbon Capture and Storage technology can also reduce carbon emissions […]
UK Climate Change Act 2008 The aim of the UK is to balance the levels of greenhouse gases to circumvent the perilous issue of climate change, as well as make it probable for people to acclimatize to an inevitable climate […]
Sustainability, Climate Change Impact on Supply Chains & Circular Economy With recycling, reusing of materials, and collecting waste, industries help to fight ecological issues, which are the cause of climate change by saving nature’s integrity.
Climate Change Indicators and Media Interference There is no certainty in the bright future for the Earth in the long-term perspective considering the devastating aftereffects that the phenomenon might bring. The indicators are essential to evaluate the scale of the growing […]
Climate Change: Sustainability Development and Environmental Law The media significantly contributes to the creation of awareness, thus the importance of integrating the role of the news press with sustainability practices.
How Climate Change Affects Conflict and Peace The review looks at various works from different years on the environment, connections to conflict, and the impact of climate change.
Toyota Corporation: The Effects of Climate Change on the Word’s Automobile Sector Considering the broad nature of the sector, the study has taken into account the case of Toyota Motor Corporation which is one of the firms operating within the sector.
The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture However, the move to introduce foreign species of grass such as Bermuda grass in the region while maintaining the native grass has been faced by challenges related to the fiscal importance of the production.
Health and Climate Change Climate change, which is a universal problem, is thought to have devastating effects on human and animal health. However, the precise health effects are not known.
The Issue of Climate Change The only confirmed facts are the impact of one’s culture and community on willingness to participate in environmental projects, and some people can refuse to join, thereby demonstrating their individuality.
Climate Change as a Battle of Generation Z These issues have attracted the attention of the generation who they have identified climate change as the most challenging problem the world is facing today.
Climate Change and Health in Nunavut, Canada Then, the authors tend to use strict and formal language while delivering their findings and ideas, which, again, is due to the scholarly character of the article. Thus, the article seems to have a good […]
Climate Change From Community Perspective Namely, the study has shown that the target audience has been concerned with the impact of climate change on health, the shift from past to current climate, the adaptation process, the call to action, and […]
Climate Change: Anticipating Drastic Consequences Modern scientists focus on the problem of the climate change because of expecting the dramatic consequences of the process in the future.
The Analysis of Process of Climate Change Dietz is the head of the Division of Nutrition and Physical Activity at the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta.
The Way Climate Change Affects the Planet It can help analyze past events such as the Pleistocene ice ages, but the current climate change does not fit the criteria. It demonstrates how slower the change was when compared to the current climate […]
Polar Bear Decline: Climate Change From Pole to Pole In comparison to 2005 where five of the populations were stable, it shows that there was a decline in stability of polar bear population.
Preparing for the Impacts of Climate Change The three areas of interest that this report discusses are the impacts of climate change on social, economic and environmental fronts which are the key areas that have created a lot of debate and discussion […]
Strategy for Garnering Effective Action on Climate Change Mitigation The approach should be participatory in that every member of the community is aware of ways that leads to climate change in order to take the necessary precaution measures. Many member nations have failed to […]
Impact of Global Climate Change on Malaria There will be a comparison of the intensity of the changes to the magnitude of the impacts on malaria endemicity proposed within the future scenarios of the climate.
The Economic Impacts of Climate Change The article by Greenstone and Oliver indicates that the problem of global warming is one of the most perilous disasters whose effects are seen in low agricultural output, poor economic wellbeing of people, and high […]
Rainforests of Victoria: Potential Effects of Climate Change The results of the research by Brooke in the year 2005 was examined to establish the actual impacts of climate change on the East Gippsland forest, especially for the fern specie.
Pygmy-Possum Burramys Parvus: The Effects of Climate Change The study will be guided by the following research question: In what ways will the predicted loss of snow cover due to climate change influence the density and habitat use of the mountain pygmy-possum populations […]
Climate Change and the Occurrence of Infectious Diseases This paper seeks to explore the nature of two vector-borne diseases, malaria, and dengue fever, in regards to the characteristics that would make them prone to effects of climate change, and to highlight some of […]
Links Between Methane, Plants, and Climate Change According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, it is the anthropogenic activities that has increased the load of greenhouse gases since the mid-20th century that has resulted in global warming. It is only the […]
United Nations Climate Change Conference In the Kyoto protocol, members agreed that nations needed to reduce the carbon emissions to levels that could not threaten the planet’s livelihoods.
The Involve of Black People in the Seeking of Climate Change Whereas some researchers use the magnitude of pollution release as opposed to closeness to a hazardous site to define exposure, others utilize the dispersion of pollutants model to comprehend the link between exposure and population.
Climate Change Dynamics: Are We Ready for the Future? One of the critical challenges of preparedness for future environmental changes is the uncertainty of how the climate system will change in several decades.
How Climate Change Impacts Ocean Temperature and Marine Life The ocean’s surface consumes the excess heat from the air, which leads to significant issues in all of the planet’s ecosystems.
Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Plan for Abu Dhabi City, UAE Abu Dhabi is the capital city of the UAE and the Abu Dhabi Emirate and is located on a triangular island in the Persian Gulf.
Climate Change in Communication Moreover, environmental reporting is not accurate and useful since profits influence and political interference affect the attainment of truthful, objective, and fair facts that would promote efficiency in newsrooms on environmental reporting.
Coronavirus’ Impact on Climate Change The extremely contagious nature of the given pathogen preconditioned the need for an immediate response and severe isolation measures to stop the appearance of new patients and protect the health of individuals.
Global Pollution and Climate Change Both of these works address the topic of Global pollution, Global warming, and Climate change, which are relevant to the current situation in the world.
Climate Change: The Key Issues An analysis of world literature indicates the emergence in recent years of a number of scientific publications on the medical and environmental consequences of global climate change.
Climate Change Is a Scientific Fallacy Even in the worst-case scenario whereby the earth gives in and fails to support human activities, there can always be a way out.
Climate Change: Change Up Your Approach People are becoming aware of the relevance of things and different aspects of their life, which is a positive trend. However, the share of this kind of energy will be reduced dramatically which is favorable […]
Climate Change: The Broken Ozone Layer It explains the effects of climate change and the adaptation methods used. Vulnerability is basically the level of exposure and weakness of an aspect with regard to climate change.
Climate Change and Economic Growth The graph displays the levels of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the years before our time with the number 0 being the year 1950.
Tropic of Chaos: Climate Change and the New Geography of Violence The point of confluence in the cattle raids in East Africa and the planting of opium in the poor communities is the struggle to beat the effects of climatic changes.
A Shift From Climate Change Awareness Under New President Such statements raised concerns among American journalists and general population about the future of the organization as one of the main forces who advocated for the safe and healthy environment of Americans and the global […]
Human Influence on Climate Change Climate changes are dangerous because they influence all the living creatures in the world. Thus, it is hard to overestimate the threat for humankind the climate changes represent.
Environmental Studies: Climate Changes Ozone hole is related to forest loss in that the hole is caused by reaction of different chemicals that are found in the atmosphere and some of these gases, for example, the carbon dioxide gas […]
Global Warming: Negative Effects to the Environment The effect was the greening of the environment and its transformation into habitable zones for humans The second system has been a consequence of the first, storage.
Global Warming Problem Overview: Significantly Changing the Climate Patterns The government is not in a position to come up with specific costs that are attached to the extent of environmental pollution neither are the polluters aware about the costs that are attached to the […]
Desert, Glaciers, and Climate Change When the wind blows in a relatively flat area with no vegetation, this wind moves loose and fine particles to erode a vast area of the landscape continuously in a process called deflation.
Global Change Biology in Terms of Global Warming A risk assessment method showed that the current population could persist for at least 2000 years at hatchling sex ratios of up to 75% male.
The Politics of Climate Change, Saving the Environment In the first article, the author expresses his concern with the problem of data utilization on climate change and negative consequences arising from this.
Global Warming Issues Review and Environmental Sustainability Whether it is the melt down of Arctic ice, the damage of the Ozone layer, extra pollution in developing countries; all sums up to one thing in common and that is global warming.
Starbucks: Corporate Social Responsibility and Global Climate Change Then in the 90s and onwards to the 21st century, Starbucks coffee can be seen almost anywhere and in places where one least expects to see a Starbucks store.
Neolithic Revolution and Climate Change At the primary stage of the evolution of human civilization, the rise of agriculture in the later part of stone age, also known as the Neolithic Revolution, was ultimately necessary to keep pace with the […]
Global Warming: Ways to Help End Global Warming An innovative understanding of global warming has included it in the agenda of firms and governments. 5 trillion dollars are shouldering the responsibility of collecting and distributing information on the firms’ exposure to carbon emission-related […]
Global Warming-The Early Signs of Warning
Biofuels and Climate Change
The Influence of Global Warming and Pollution on the Environment
How Global Warming Has an Effect on Wildlife?
Climate Change Risks in South Eastern Australia
The Politics and Economics of International Action on Climate Change
Climate Change: Influence on Lifestyle in the Future
Global Warming: Causes and Impact on Health, Environment and the Biodiversity
Climate Change During Socialism and Capitalistic Epochs
Climate Change and Public Health Policies
Climate Changes: Cause and Effect
Global Warming: Causes and Consequences
World Trade as the Adjustment Mechanism of Agriculture to Climate Change by Julia & Duchin
Risk Communication, Public Engagement, and Climate Change
Everyday Communication Surrounding Climate Change
Chad Frischmann: The Young Minds Solving Climate Change
Climate Change and the Syrian Civil War Revisited
Public Health Education on Climate Change Effects
Research Plan “Climate Change”
Evidence of Climate Change
The Role of Human Activities on the Climate Change
Corporations’ Impact on Climate Change
Climate Change Factors and Countermeasures
Climate Change Effects on Population Health
Climate Change: Who Is at Fault?
Technological and Policy Solutions to Prevent Climate Change
Climate Change: Reducing Industrial Air Pollution
Global Climate Change and Biological Implications
Weather Abnormalities and Climate Change
Global Warming, Its Consequences and Prevention
Climate Change and Risks for Business in Australia
Climate Change Solutions for Australia
Climate Change, Industrial Ecology and Environmental Chemistry
“Climate Change May Destroy Alaskan Towns” Video
Science of Global Warming and Climate Change
Climate Change Effects on Kenya’s Tea Industry
Dealing With the Climate Change Issues
Global Warming as Environmental Injustice
Technologically Produced Emissions Impact on Climate Change
City Trees and Climate Change: Act Green and Get Healthy
Climate Change and American National Security
Anthropogenic Climate Change and Policy Problems
Climate Change, Air Pollution, Soil Degradation
Climate Change in Canada
Global Warming Impact on the Natural Environment
International Climate Change Agreements
Polar Transformations as a Global Warming Issue
Moral Obligations to Climate Change and Animal Life
Technology’s Impact on Climate Change
Climate Change in Abu Dhabi
Global Warming and Climate Change: Fighting and Solutions
Climate Change Debates and Scientific Opinion
Earth’s Geologic History and Global Climate Change
CO2 Emission and Climate Change Misconceptions
Geoengineering as a Possible Response to Climate Change
Global Warming: People Impact on the Environment
Climate Change: Ways of Eliminating Negative Effects
Climate Change Probability and Predictions
Climate Changes and Human Population Distribution
Climate Change as International Issue
Climate Change for Australian Magpie-Lark Birds
Climate Change Effects on Ocean Acidification
Climate Change Governance: Concepts and Theories
Climate Change’s Negative Impact on Biodiversity
Climate Change Management and Risk Governance
United Nation and Climate Change
Human Rights and Climate Change Policy-Making
Climate Change: Anthropological Concepts and Perspectives
Climate Change Impacts on Business in Bangladesh
Environmental Risk Perception: Climate Change Viewpoints
Pollution & Climate Change as Environmental Risks
Climate Change: Nicholas Stern and Ross Garnaut Views
Challenges Facing Humanity: Technology and Climate Change
Climate Change Potential Consequences
Climate Change in United Kingdom
Climate Change From International Relations Perspective
Climate Change and International Collaboration
International Security and Climate Change
Climate and Conflicts: Security Risks of Global Warming
Climate Change Effects on World Economy
Climate Change Vulnerability in Scotland
Global Warming and Climate Change
Responsible Factors for Climate Change
Organisational Sustainability and Climate Change Strategy
The Effect of Science on Climate Change
“Climate Change: Turning Up the Heat” by Barrie Pittock
Vulnerability of World Countries to Climate Change
Anthropogenic Climate Change
The Implementation of MOOCs on Climate Change
The Climate Change and the Asset-Based Community Development
Global Warming and Its Effects on the Environment
Climate Change Research Studies
Climate Change Negative Health Impacts
Managing the Impacts of Climate Change
Early Climate Change Science
Views Comparison on the Problem of Climate Change
Climate Change and Corporate World
Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) in Reducing the Effects of Climate Change
Climate Change Affecting Coral Triangle Turtles
Introduction to Climate Change: Major Threats and the Means to Avoid Them
Climate Change and Its Effects on Indigenous Peoples
Asian Drivers of Global Change
The Causes and Effects of Climate Change in the US
Metholdogy for Economic Discourse Analysis in Climate Change
The Impact of Climate Change on New Hampshire Business
Climate Change Effects on an Individual’s Life in the Future
Ideology of Economic Discourse in Climate Change
The Role of Behavioural Economics in Energy and Climate Policy
The Economic Cost of Climate Change Effects
Transforming the Economy to Address Climate Change and Global Resource Competition
Climate Change: Floods in Queensland Australia
Climate Change as a Global Security Threat
Climate Change and Its Effects on Tourism in Coastal Areas
Impact of Climate Change and Solutions
Climate Change and Its Global Implications in Hospitality and Tourism
Climate Change Needs Human Behavior Change
Negative Impacts of Climate Change in the Urban Areas and Possible Strategies to Address Them
Climate Changes: Snowpack
Climate Change and Consumption: Which Way the Wind Blows in Indiana
The United Nation’s Response to Climate Change
Need for Topic on Climate Change in Geography Courses
Critical Review: “Food’s Footprint: Agriculture and Climate Change” by Jennifer Burney
Global Warming: Justing Gillis Discussing Studies on Climate Change
Economics and Human Induced Climate Change
Biology of Climate Change
Business & Climate Change
Global Warming Causes and Unfavorable Climatic Changes
Spin, Science and Climate Change
Climate Change, Coming Home: Global Warming’s Effects on Populations
Climate Change and Human Health
Climate Change: The Complex Issue of Global Warming
Climate Changes: Human Activities and Global Warming
Public Awareness of Climate Changes and Carbon Footprints
Climate Change: Impact of Carbon Emissions to the Atmosphere
Problems of Climate Change
Solving the Climate Change Crisis Through Development of Renewable Energy
Climate Change Is the Biggest Challenge in the World That Affects the Flexibility of Individual Specie
Climate Changes
Ways to Reduce Global Warming
Climate Change Definition and Causes
Climate Change: Nearing a Mini Ice Age
Global Warming Outcomes and Sea-Level Changes
Climate Change: Causes and Effects
Protecting Forests to Prevent Climate Change
Climate Change in Saudi Arabia and Miami
Effects of Global Warming on the Environment
Threat to Biodiversity Is Just as Important as Climate Change
Does Climate Change Affect Entrepreneurs?
Does Climate Change Information Affect Stated Risks of Pine Beetle Impacts on Forests
Does Energy Consumption Contribute to Climate Change?
Does Forced Solidarity Hinder Adaptation to Climate Change?
Does Risk Communication Really Decrease Cooperation in Climate Change Mitigation?
Does Risk Perception Limit the Climate Change Mitigation Behaviors?
What Are the Differences Between Climate Change and Global Warming?
What Are the Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture in North East Central Europe?
What Are the Policy Challenges That National Governments Face in Addressing Climate Change?
What Are the Primary Causes of Climate Change?
What Are the Risks of Climate Change and Global Warming?
What Does Climate Change Mean for Agriculture in Developing Countries?
What Drives the International Transfer of Climate Change Mitigation Technologies?
What Economic Impacts Are Expected to Result From Climate Change?
What Motivates Farmers’ Adaptation to Climate Change?
What Natural Forces Have Caused Climate Change?
What Problems Are Involved With Establishing an International Climate Change?
What Role Has Human Activity Played in Causing Climate Change?
Which Incentives Does Regulation Give to Adapt Network Infrastructure to Climate Change?
Why Climate Change Affects Us?
Why Does Climate Change Present Potential Dangers for the African Continent?
Why Economic Analysis Supports Strong Action on Climate Change?
Why Should People Care For the Perceived Event of Climate Change?
Why the Climate Change Debate Has Not Created More Cleantech Funds in Sweden?
Why Worry About Climate Change?
Will African Agriculture Survive Climate Change?
Will Carbon Tax Mitigate the Effects of Climate Change?
Will Climate Change Affect Agriculture?
Will Climate Change Cause Enormous Social Costs for Poor Asian Cities?
Will Religion and Faith Be the Answer to Climate Change?
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251 Climate Essay Topics

🏆 best essay topics on climate, 📚 catchy climate essay topics, 👍 good climate research topics & essay examples, 🌶️ hot climate ideas to write about, 🎓 most interesting climate research titles, 💡 simple climate essay ideas, ✍️ climate essay topics for college, ❓ essay questions on climate.

Climate Change in Terms of Project Management
Climate Change Impacts
Food Security: The Impact of Climate Change
Tree Planting and Climate Change
Environmental Health Theory and Climate Change
Climate Change: The Impact of Technology
Electric Vehicles and Their Impact on Climate Change
Climate Change and Corporate Responsibility The problem of climate change is not new, but it becomes more and more crucial nowadays. The first changes in climate were observed during the industrial period, from the 1750s.
Climate Change Impacts on Oceans The consequences of climate change on seawater have had harmful impacts, including irreversible damage to the water’s natural environment and ecological system.
The Catholic Response to the Climate Change Catholic Church joined other global climate change movements such as Action for climate change by the United Nations to champion a safer and sustainable ecosystem by 2050.
Climate Change and Global Warming Global warming is a subject that has elicited a heated debate for a long time. This debate is commonplace among scholars and policy makers.
Climate Change and Future Generations The consequences of global warming can be extremely dire for future generations. Temperature, if increased by one and a half degrees, will push natural systems to a turning point.
Climate Change in Africa and How to Address It According to environmental scientists, Africa is exposed to the effects of climatic alterations subject to its elevated levels of poverty, and dependence on rain-fed farming.
Climate Change: Concept and Theories Climate change has become a concern of scientists rather recently. There are numerous theories as to the reasons for this process, but there are still no particular answers.
The Problem of Climate Change in the 21st Century Climate change is among the top threats facing the world in the 21st century, and it deserves prioritization when planning how to move the country and the globe forward.
Climate Change: A Global Concern The phenomenon of climate change has attracted a notable amount of attention, the early 1990s being the point at which the phenomenon in question became a worldwide concern.
Water Scarcity as Effect of Climate Change Climate change is the cause of variability in the water cycle, which also reduces the predictability of water availability, demand, and quality, aggravating water scarcity.
Solving the Climate Change Crisis by Using Renewable Energy Sources Climate change has caused extreme changes in temperature and weather patterns on planet Earth, thus threatening the lives of living organisms.
Security and Climate Change Climate change has been happening at an unprecedented rate over the last decade to become a major global concern.
Investing in Climate Change vs. Space Exploration Efforts aimed at investing in climate change versus outer space exploration will be compared in this essay, and their consequences will be analyzed.
Human Impact on the Environment Leading to Climate Change An elevated amount of greenhouse gases results in the retention of solar energy in the low levels of the atmosphere, which in turn brings to the melting of glaciers.
Climate Change Policies and Regulation The current changes in climate patterns have attracted attention from researchers and institutions as they endeavor to formulate and implement policies.
Social Issue: Climate Change The topic of climate change was chosen to learn more in the modern sense about the phenomenon that most people have heard about for decades.
Modern Environmental Issues: Climate Change Climate change had taken place before humans evolved, but the issue lies in the one, which is caused by direct human intervention.
Climate Change as a Challenge to Australia Climate change is characterised by changes in the weather conditions brought about by emissions from industries as well as emissions from agriculture.
The Controversies of Climate Change This paper discusses the issue of climate change by considering the arguments presented by both the proponents and opponents based on ethical principles and sources of moral value.
Causes of Climate Change and Ways to Reduce It Despite the effects, investing in green energy, increasing vegetation cover, and conducting public education are some measures that can be taken to reduce climate change.
Energy Crisis and Climate Change The global community needs to adopt an energy efficient behavior and invest in the exploration of sustainable energy resources.
How El Niño Affects Ocean Circulation and How Climate Is Impacted Climate change research has progressed to the point that paleoclimatic data may now provide trustworthy information on the responses of the climate system.
Climate Change Affecting Global Public Health Climate change leads to the destruction of a range of habitats, the drop in the amount of drinkable water, the rise in air pollution, the reduction in the amount of food, etc.
Impact of Climate Change on Property Development and Management This essay will focus on the BBC article, COP26 promises could limit global warming to 1.8C, with a specific focus on the impact of climate change on property development.
The Global Impact of Climate Change Into Our Homes and Families A home is a significant part of someone’s life. That’s why it is always considered as part of basic needs. They give people a sense of belonging and security.
The Importance of Addressing Climate Change Climate change is a topical issue, and the way humanity will choose to address it will determine whether major negative consequences can be avoided.
Climate Change and Its Evidence The review of common claims about global warming made it possible to say that in spite of some skeptical opinions, it might be really happening.
Climate Change, Human Activities and Remedies Human beings are the worst enemies of the environment. The Kyoto Protocol and the concept of green buildings are the two major interventions to climatic change and global warming.
Climate and Weather Concepts The concepts of climate and weather are closely related to each other; the key distinction between the two is that climate is attributed to a particular region and season, whereas weather is not.
Solubility of Carbon Dioxide Related to Climate Change The solubility of carbon dioxide is directly related to climate change because oceans absorb excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Effects of Climate Variability on Water Resources, Food Security, and Human Health Evaluating the effects of climate variability on water, food, and health will help identify the areas for improvement and offer solutions to current environmental challenges.
How Human Activities Cause Climate Change Scientists and various leaders globally have seriously debated the causes of climate change. This essay involves a discussion of how human activities cause climate change.
Climate Change in “The Parable of the Sower” by Butler Butler’s “The Parable of The Sower” is a post-apocalyptic knowledge literature novel that addresses climate modification and socioeconomic inequalities.
Climate Change and the Media Biases This essay’s purpose is to address the media bias concerning the rising global warming and climate change, referring to news articles made by scientists and various scholars.
The Impact of Climate Change on the United States Climate change is a serious issue faced by the United States, and it has various effects, including in the spheres of economy, animal habitat, and health of the population.
How Climate Changes Affect Coastal Areas Natural disasters and hazards caused by climate change are especially the cases during modern times, as the number of toxic substances and polluting elements is increasing every year.
Climate Change and Impact on Human Health In this paper, two academic articles that discuss the problem of climate change and its impact on human health will be reviewed.
Napa Valley Wine Industry and Climate Change The current competitive landscape of the Napa Valley is formed from a multitude of stakeholders of varying sizes. The work studies climate change and the Napa Valley wine industry.
Climate Change and International Trade The relationship between climate change and international trade has been on a great verge of developing a new critical issue. This was so evident at the Conference of Parties Climate Conference.
Philosophers’ Theories on Climate Change The paper demonstrates two philosophers’ theories on climate change, namely Laura Westra and Graham Long. The thoughts and ideas are evaluated by using a hypothetical situation.
Climate Change: Canada’s Environment Policy The essay argues that Canada is a major contributor to climate change and its environmental policies are inadequate in resolving the environmental problems.
The Truth Behind Climate Change The real solution of the problem of climate change could be to decarbonize the global energy system that is 80% fossil fuel, but it is significant in scale.
How Climate Change Impacts Aviation The issue of climate change and its impact on the aviation industry has been a developing story lately due to the two-way relationship between them.
Climate Change as an Ethical Issue Although global warming is a hotly debated topic, some groups claim that the issue is not as acute as it is presented.
Climate Change and Its Impact on the Weather Climate change is a serious issue nowadays, considering that it is bound to affect my generation and the next ones.
Discussion of Impact of Climate Change in Society Modern scholars and environmentalists acknowledge that climate change is a major challenge affecting the global society today.
Climate Concerns and Impact on Milwaukee The fight against climate change in Milwaukee must be as aggressive as possible to prevent the destruction of ecosystems and the degradation of human life.
Climate Concerns in Milwaukee, Wisconsin Milwaukee residents in Wisconsin are at a more significant threat of floods and excessive heat due to climate change within the United States.
Climate Change and Carbon Dioxide Emissions Climate change is in large part caused by human action, and the continued industrial development of the world can be accredited to exacerbating the problem further than ever.
Climate Change and Environmental Anxiety Individuals must develop a strategy to be able to resist climate change. In addition, there is a need for a global plan to restrain the influence of global warming.
The Health Impacts of Climate Change in China Although climate change could not directly affect the Chinese population’s health, climate change interference could increase the number of respiratory system diseases, etc.
Disasters Caused by Climate Change This paper focuses on several recent natural disasters caused by climate change – simultaneous fires in Russia and floods in Pakistan.
How Human Behavior Promotes Climate Change Uncontrolled reproduction is one of several behaviors promoting climate change. It increases the size of the population and changes its distribution.
Capitalism, Climate Change, and Globalization Globalization allowed significant corporations to put a substantial strain on the environment in developing countries.
“The Basics of Climate Change” Blog The author of “The Basics of Climate Change” reveals the main concepts about the balance between the input and output of energy on Earth that directly relate to the climate.
The Effects of Climate on the Ways of Life The current state of the environment is classified as disturbing. Various pieces of evidence prove that the climate change is a real problem facing the today’s society.
Multinational Corporations and Climate Change The current essay revolves around the topic of climate change and economic activities. In the essay, the author focuses on MNCs and their role in environmental conservation.
Climate Change as a Healthcare Priority Human-caused climate change significantly impacts the ecological situation and many areas of human life, such as health care.
Climate Change and Global Warming Awareness If people continue to have misconceptions about global warming, climate change will negatively impact weather, food security, and biodiversity.
The Earth Day and Climate Change Climate change remains a relevant topic despite over fifty years of efforts since the establishment of Earth Day in 1970.
Climate Change and Creation of Earth Day Climate change enables communities to create environmental initiatives, industries to update their manufacturing, and politicians to influence the problem through their campaigns.
Globalization: Climate Crisis and Capitalist Ideology One of the main features of the development of the world community in recent decades has been globalization as part of integration processes that are changing the world structure.
Psychology, Climate Change and Ecological Problems Climate change and environmental problems are behavioral. The psychological task of specialists appears, the essence of which is to overcome barriers.
Carbon Markets and Climate Change Many climatological concepts predict a rise in worldwide average temperature over the succeeding few decades centered on tripling atmospheric carbon oxide levels.
Water Scarcity Due to Climate Change This paper focuses on the adverse impact that water scarcity has brought today with the view that water is the most valuable element in running critical processes.
Strengthening Resilience and Adaptive Capacity to Climate-Related Hazards The planet’s global mean surface has risen slightly less than one degree since the late 19th century – which is expected only to exacerbate by the current century’s end.
Climate Change and Food Production Cycle In order to address the problem of climate change in relation to the overproduction of food, a more responsible attitude toward its consumption.
International Climate Change Law and National Acts The growing number of countries involved in the fight against environmental problems is seen as a positive step. As a justification, the scope of emission coverage is considered.
Climatology: An Introduction to the Theory of Climate Climatology denotes the study of climate. Climate for its part refers to a set of weather conditions that characterize a given location.
Bottle Water Industry in Current Economic UK Climate The research question is whether bottled water is a necessity or a luxury with regard to the current economic climate in the United Kingdom.
The Effect of Climate Change on the Environment The purpose of this paper is to discuss how the influence of humans’ activity on the environment has caused drastic climate change, and how climate change affects the environment.
Climate Change: The Leading Cause of Global Warming The chosen issue is climate change because it is a social dilemma triggered by human activity and will need joint efforts to reduce or alleviate its adverse effects.
The Impact of Climate Change on Inflectional Diseases This paper will examine the increasing spread of infectious diseases as one of the effects of climate change, as well as current and possible measures to overcome it.
Organizational Climate and Nursing Care Practices The Caring Nurse-Patient Interaction Short Scale (CNPISS) was the method used to measure Caring Practices in the Roch, Dubois, and Clarke (2014) study.
Climate Change Threats in Public Perception Diverse social, economic, ecological, and geopolitical variables that operate on multiple scales contribute to different levels of human vulnerability to climate change threats.
The Key to Addressing Climate Change in Modern Business Globalisation, industrialisation, and rise of global corporations promoted the increased topicality of the climate change topic and its transformation into a shared problem.
Effects of Human Activities on the Global Climate Global climate change results from changes in the Earth’s atmosphere over a long time. Several factors contribute to climate change.
Refugees: Poverty, Hunger, Climate Change, and Violence Individuals struggling with poverty, hunger, climate change, and gender-based violence and persecution may consider fleeing to the United States.
Overpopulation, Climate Change, and Security Issues This research paper examines such social and environmental issues as overpopulation, urbanization, climate change, food security, and air pollution.
Climate Change: Nature Communications Climate change is one of the main concerns in contemporary global society. This subject is an issue of great contention, with different sides disagreeing.
Climate Change: Impact on Lemurs Climate change and other environmental issues severely impact the lifestyle and behaviors of lemurs. High temperatures make lemurs spend more time on the ground.
The Effect of Climate Change on Weather Climate change is resulting in weather extremes that are affecting millions of people around the world in recent times.
Climate Change: Impact on Extreme Weather Events The article summarizes the scientific paper on the impact of climate change on extreme weather events worldwide.
Climate Change: Causes, Dynamics, and Effects It is crucial to provide a description of the problem of the climate crisis, its causes and effects, and possible prevention measures.
Ethical, Moral, and Christian Views on Climate Change Strategies Climate change strategies pose ethical, moral, and religious concerns that influence people to bring change and conserve the environment.
The History of Climate Change and Global Warming Issue The paper states that the history of climate change and the solutions communities opted for are critical to tackling the current global warming issue.
Climate Policy in the United States The United Nations and other federal agencies within the U.S. have been working towards global climate sustainability by calling for industry-driven energy regulations.
Greenpeace’s Climate Change Article Review The article What Are the Solutions to Climate Change by Greenpeace explains the ways climate change can be resolved while using comprehensive terms and being concise.
Climate Change and Health: Public Health Human activity influences the environment in various ways, from climate change acceleration to the increasing deforestation that can cause another global pandemic.
Global Warming and Climate Change and Their Impact on Humans Climate change and global warming are significant issues with negative impacts on all aspects of human life; for example, they disrupt the food web, hurting humans and wildlife.
Earth Day and the Climate Change Agenda This research paper examines the social significance and ecological value of Earth Day in the face of the climate change agenda.
The Climate Change Impact on Sea Levels and Coastal Zones This paper summarizes the effects of climate change on seawater levels and subsequent effects on the coastal zones.
Desertification and Climate Change Desertification can be prevented by holistic and planned grazing. This transformation can lead to better outcomes in the fight against climate change.
Importance of Climate Change Issue Decision The situation of climate change is the central issue of the 21st century, and its solution is a turning point in history.
Climate Changes Effects on the North and South Pole Global climate change has led to major problems in the North and South Pole ecosystems, with many animals losing their homes and even becoming endangered.
Climate Change Mitigation Strategies and Animals The thesis of the article is clear and identifies two main points, which are the problem that the global discussion does not propose sufficient methods to solve the issue.
The Climate Change: Project Topic Exploration Climate change is an environmental problem that relates to an increase in the Earth’s average surface temperature.
Air Pollution Crisis and Climate Change in China Air pollution is a serious problem in many countries, including China. The main source of air pollutants is fumes from burning fuels in industries or vehicles.
Analysis of Climate Change Ethical Issues Climate change is a major problem in contemporary society, evidenced by issues such as global warming that have affected and continue to wreck societal norms around the world.
Earth Day and the Climate Change In relation to the field of climate change, the use of the evaluation strategy would be the evaluation of people’s opinions and ideology encouraged by the creation of Earth Day.
“The Impact of Climate Change Mitigation Strategies on Animal Welfare” by Shields and Orme-Evans The paper states that for animal welfare to improve, climate change mitigation strategies should encompass systematic changes in the industry.
Climate Change from Different Perspectives The climate change situation has two types of responses, with one camp making deliberate efforts to minimize the impact of climate change and others ignoring the issue altogether.
Climate Change: The Impact on North America As the analysis of climate change patterns reveals, the North American continent is on the verge of profound environmental changes resulting from global warming.
The Impacts of Climate Change Mitigation Strategies on Animal Welfare The article by Shields and Orme-Evans focuses on the problem of climate change from the aspect of greenhouse emissions from farm animals and their contribution to global warming.
How Climate Change Influenced Global Migration Migration and conflict have become the most important reasons causing researchers’ interest in climate change.
Climate Change and Crop Production This paper aims to discuss how climate change affects crop production in Latin American, Central American, and Eastern African regions.
Climate as a Result of Natural Events Climate change is one of the most pressing environmental issues of the time. It is caused by a variety of factors, but one of the most important is solar output.
Solar Activity as a Cause of Climate Change Climate change is not solely the result of human activity because solar activity also impacts the Earth’s climate in a significant manner.
Climate Change: Risks and Consequences Climate change has long been one of the global environmental challenges humanity has faced. A slow but steady rise in surface temperatures is a sustainable trend.
Deforestation and Its Impact on Climate Recently, ecologists have been attempting to raise public awareness about the negative effects of this phenomenon, particularly its contribution to climate change.
Carbon Dioxide Factor in Climate Change Increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide have a profound effect on global warming, and in turn, it affects the total temperature of the Earth.
Climate Change: The Role of Scientific and Technological Progress This paper serves as a starting point when looking at climate change and the effects of scientific and technological progress.
Climate Change and Modern Indigenous Treaties in Northern Canada The purpose of this paper is to answer the following question: how does climate change affect aboriginal culture, food gathering, and Canadian government policy?
Ascertaining Scientific Truth on Climate Change Human activities impact the environment. The consequences of anthropological actions reverberate across all aspects of the Earth’s habitat.
Climate Resilience Planning and Urban Planning Projects Resilience planning for climate change and the creation of urban planning projects is an essential aspect of the activities of States.
Climate Change and Fall of the Western Roman Empire The authors researched the relevant literature about why the Empire failed and how climate change was connected to the decline.
Climate Change and Accessibility to Safe Water The paper discusses climate change’s effect on water accessibility, providing graphs on water scarcity and freshwater use and resources.
Climate Change Prevention Improvements This paper aims to examine the principal indicators in achieving improvements in climate change prevention and the current results of programs.
The UN Climate Change Conference: Indigenous Concerns During the UN Climate Change Conference, it was clear that indigenous environmental defenders have a particular stake in the outcomes of climate change global negotiations.
Climate Change Prediction for the Caribbean Climate change can be defined as the global spectacle of climate alteration described by the earth’s natural climate variations due to human activities.
Researching the Interactions between Climate Change and Plankton Communities This paper is aimed at examining the interactions between climate change and plankton communities, focusing on the abundance, distribution, and structure of the species.
Climate Disruption: Understanding the Problem and Its Significance The climate crisis is a significant challenge facing humanity because rising average temperatures substantially impact the planet’s climate.
Business Transformation in the Context of Climate Crisis In the new realities of the growing attention to environmental problems, the business should focus not only on making a profit but also on protecting the environment.
Social Challenges of Climate Change Climate change is among the most pressing global issues, and it is not easy to find a solution that will work for everyone.
Climate Change: Factors and Future Climate change and global warming have been stressed since the early 20th century, and different environmental corps and governments have communicated several mitigation techniques.
Climate Change and Global Health Climate change is among the most discussed topics in various fields, as it has overarching effects on many aspects of human life.
The Affect of Climate Change on the Social and Environmental Determinants of Health There is a lack of sufficient awareness in society about how climate change affects health although it significantly influences its environmental determinants.
Climate Change in Environmentally Vulnerable Countries The repercussions of climate change are global in character and unprecedented in size, ranging from changing weather patterns to sea level rise.
The Future of Coal Plants Regarding Climate Change The use of coal plants to provide energy has been at the center of the growth of many economies of the world. However, coal is associated with the emission of greenhouse gasses.
Australia: Geography, Language, Climate, and Culture The Commonwealth of Australia consists of the Australian continent and several islands, including the island of Tasmania, the capital of Australia is Canberra.
Climate Disruption: Attracting People’s Attention In recent years, the Earth’s climate has changed markedly, with some countries suffering from abnormal heat waves and others from winters that are too harsh and snowy for their liking.
Climate Change: Improving Global Health The climate of the planet is changing, and today it is impossible to deny. The temperature of air and water is increasing every decade.
Global Warming: The Importance of Addressing the Climate Crisis The paper states that global warming has many consequences. Multiple scientific discoveries emphasize the importance of addressing the climate crisis urgently.
Climate Redux and Earth System Governmentality Allenby’s “Climate Redux: Welcome to the Anthropocene” and Lovbrand et al.’s “Earth System governmentality” offer timely insights into the climate change discussion.
Responsibility for Climate Migration The environment in Diamond’s framework is the combination of political, social, and economic factors, the most evident of which is climate change.
Climate Change Reflection in Law System The paper states that climate change in the coming decade will be crucial to achieving global goals set on the governmental and international levels.
The Science Behind Climate Change Regardless of how strong the natural change to the climate system was, it could not have led to the temperature increase seen over the past semicentenary.
Oil Spills and How They Are Related to Climate Change The paper states that oil spills are destructive to ecosystems. Oil spills and climate change are two deeply interrelated environmental phenomena.
Climate Change From the Anthropological Perspective The adaptive nature of the anthropological development of humanity explains the contemporary global problems, and climate change may be assessed from the human adaptation perspective.
A Climate Change Emergency in the US To handle the problem of climate change effects, the US must restrict carbon emissions by enforcing policies that favor the initiatives and financing the green economy.
Climate Vulnerable Countries and International Monetary Fund The IMF is critical in dealing with the economic effects of climate change on vulnerable countries. It started to develop capacity and strategy to assist the V20 states.
Solar Energy in China and Its Influence on Climate Change The influence of solar energy on climate change has impacted production, the advancement of solar energy has impacted climate change in the geography of China.
Natural Climate Solutions for Climate Change in China The crisis in China gives rise to several significant environmental problems, including air pollution, land degradation, deforestation, and poor water quality.
Harmful Impact of Climate Change Climate change is one of the most notable environmental problems that humanity is facing today and defines it as ‘long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns’.
Anthropogenic Influence on Climate Change Throughout History
Climate Change, Its Causes and Implications
The Influence of Work Climate, Job Placement on Employee Performance
Climate Vulnerable Countries and International Organizations
Mitigating Climate Change in Massachusetts: Policy Recommendations
Climate Change: Dealing with the Problem
Climate Change and Mitigation Approaches
Impacts of Climate Change on Electricity Demand in China
Tree Planting Ameliorating Climate Change
Climate Change and Mitigation Measures in China
Environmental Treaties in Addressing Climate Change
Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Food
Web-Based Organizational Discourses: Climate Change
Discussing Climate Change: Randy Johnson
The Impact of Global Climate Change on Health
Environmental Issues: Problems of Climate Change
Aspects of Global Climate Change
Climate Change: Dangers and Prevention
Correlation of “Climate Change” and Public Health
The Problem of Climate Change in South Florida
Forest Biodiversity and Climate Effects on Ecosystem Carbon Flux
Climate Change as a Public Health Issue
Effect of Climate Change in the Future
Religion and Politics: Pope Francis and Climate Change
How Climate Change Increases the Risk of Hurricanes
Climate Change: El Niño Oscillation Phenomenon (ENSO)
Climate and Social Change in Global Warming Crisis
Impact of Climate Change on Early Societies
Global Warming and Climate Change
Global Warming, Climate Change and Ozone Depletion
Climate Change: Forecast of Possible Events
Climate Change: Causes and Consequences, and the Issue of Social Collapse
Canada: The First Victim of Global Climate Change
Sustainable Development: The Climate Change Issues
Climate Change Skepticism in Relation to Global Warming
Global Warming: Do Human Activities Threaten to Change Climate?
Climate of San Francisko’s Region
Climate Change and Its Potential Impact on Agriculture and Food Supply
Solving the Climate Problem for Next 50 Years.
Women’s Activism Sources Around Climate Change
Hospital Climate and Nurses’ Caring Practices
Weather and Climate Change: Physical Equations
Ecofeminism: Women Against Climate Change
The Climate Tragedy and Adaptation to Disasters
Health Issues Caused by Climate Change
Respiratory Diseases Caused by Climate Change
Climate Change Factors and Impacts on Blue Crab Populations
Global Warming Leads Climate Change
Climate Change Impacts Florida’s Biodiversity
Climate Change and Related Issues in Canada
Climate Change as Political Leaders’ Primary Concern
Climate Change Initiative in Canada
Climate Change and Social Responsibility in the UAE
Impact of Climate Change on Intermodal Transportation
Climate Changes Impact on Agriculture and Livestock
Remote Sensing Applications to Climate Change
Moral Leadership and Work Climate
Climate Change and Human Heath
Trump Presidency: Immigration and Climate Change
Climate Change as a Threat to Pension Fund
Climate Change: Changing Patterns of Malaria
Global Climate Change and Health Concerns
British Petroleum’s Risks due to Climate Changes
Paris Agreement: Climate Change Deal
Climate Change: Changing Patterns of Malaria Disease
Fun at Work, Organizational Culture and Climate
Rules and Positive Climate in Classroom Management
The Climate Change Problem
Global Climate Stabilization: Bryan Mignone Views
Climate Change: When Nature Is in Agony
Humans Contribution to Global Climate Change
How the Solar System Is Formed?
The United States Policy on Climate Change
The Issue of Global Climate Change and the Use of Global Ethic
Solar System Geology, Climate, and Composition
Why Does Climate Change Present Potential Dangers for the African Continent?
Are Flood Victims More Concerned About Climate Change Than Other People?
Has Climate Change Driven Urbanization in Africa?
Did Climate Affect Human Evolution?
What Are the Policy Challenges that National Governments Face in Addressing Climate Change?
Are Human Activities Contributing to Climate Change?
How Can Climate Justice and Energy Justice Be Reconciled?
Does Climate Change Foster Emigration From Less Developed Countries?
Are Human Values and Community Participation Key to Climate Adaptation?
Should Politicians Change Policies in Light of Climate Change?
How Can Society Address Climate Change?
Does Climate Policy Make the EU Economy More Resilient to Oil Price Rises?
Can Declining Energy Intensity Mitigate Climate Change?
How Can Climate Affect the Architecture?
What Does Climate Change Mean for Agriculture in Developing Countries?
Are Renewable Energy Policies Climate Friendly?
Can Climate Finance Contribute to Gender Equity in Developing Countries?
How Does Climate Change Impact Food Availability in Developing Countries?
Are Tax Exemptions for Electric Cars an Efficient Climate Policy Measure?
Why Is Maintaining Tropical Forests Essential and Urgent for a Stable Climate?
Can Renewable Energy Prevent Climate Change?
Does Energy Consumption Contribute to Climate Change?
Would Climate Change Lead to New Wars in Africa?
Can Technological Innovation Help China Take on Its Climate Responsibility?
Does Global Climate Policy Promote Low-Carbon Cities?

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StudyCorgi. (2021, September 9). 251 Climate Essay Topics. https://studycorgi.com/ideas/climate-essay-topics/

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StudyCorgi . "251 Climate Essay Topics." September 9, 2021. https://studycorgi.com/ideas/climate-essay-topics/.

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These essay examples and topics on Climate were carefully selected by the StudyCorgi editorial team. They meet our highest standards in terms of grammar, punctuation, style, and fact accuracy. Please ensure you properly reference the materials if you’re using them to write your assignment.

This essay topic collection was updated on January 5, 2024 .

Climate change, energy, environment and sustainability topics research guide

What is climate change.

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. The world is now warming faster than at any point in recorded history, which disrupts the usual balance of nature and is a threat to human beings and other forms of life on Earth. This topic guide includes sample keywords and search terms, databases to find sources, and samples of online books.

Example keywords and subtopics

Example keywords or search terms:

Climate change
global warming
greenhouse effect or greenhouse gas
climate crisis
environmental change
clean energy
alternative energy or renewable energy
green energy or renewable energy or clean energy
Low carbon or carbon neutral
Carbon offsetting
sustainability environment or sustainability
environmental protection
pollution or contamination
impact or effect or influence
cost or price or expense or money or financial
fossil fuels or coal or oil or gas

Tip: This is a big topic with lots written so you can often focus on one or two subtopics. This will help to find more relevant sources, more quickly and be a better fit for an assignment.

Possible subtopics ideas: Pick one or two subtopics and then add those words to your search.

Health impacts of climate changes (e.g. air pollution, water pollution, etc.)
impacts on a specific city, state, region or country
political impacts (e.g. voting, government policy, etc.)
impact on specific population or culture (e.g. children, elderly, racial or ethic group, country, etc.)
specific types of renewable or alternative energy (e.g. solar, wind, bio, etc.)
example of new technology (e.g. electric cars or electric vehicles or hybrid vehicles
economic impacts (e.g. business, employment, industry (e.g. oil, coal, etc.)
weather and impacts (e.g. rising sea levels, flooding, droughts or heat waves, etc.)
media aspects (e.g. news coverage, advertising, misinformation, movies, music, etc.)
Tutorial: Creating an effective search strategy

Creating an effective search strategy tutorial video. 3 minutes 24 seconds.

Use meaningful keywords to find the best sources
Apply search strategies like AND and OR to connect keywords
Tutorial: What is a library database and why should I use one?

What is a library database and why should I use one tutorial video. 3 minutes.

Identify what a library database is
Recognize the two main types of library databases
Know why you should use them
Understand why searching a library database is different than searching the general internet

Databases for finding sources

Article Databases -

Use articles to find new research, specific information and evidence to support or refute a claim. You can also look at the bibliography or works cited to find additional sources. Some articles give an overview of a specific topic -- sometimes called "review articles" or "meta-analyses" or "systematic review." Databases are like mini-search engines for finding articles (e.g. Business Source Premier database searches business journals, business magazines and business newspapers). Pick a database that searches the subject of articles you want to find.

Agricultural & Environmental Science Database Search journals and literature on agriculture, pollution, animals, environment, policy, natural resources, water issues and more. Searches tools like AGRICOLA, Environmental Sciences & Pollution Management (ESPM), and Digests of Environmental Impact Statements (EIS) databases.
GreenFILE Collection of scholarly, government and general-interest titles. Multidisciplinary by nature, GreenFILE draws on the connections between the environment and agriculture, education, law, health and technology. Topics covered include global climate change, green building, pollution, sustainable agriculture, renewable energy, recycling, and more.
Ethnic NewsWatch Ethnic NewsWatch is a current resource of full-text newspapers, magazines, and journals of the ethnic and minority press from 1990, providing researchers access to essential, often overlooked perspectives.
Opposing Viewpoints in Context Find articles on current issues, including viewpoint articles, topic overviews, statistics, primary documents, magazine and newspaper articles.

Sample of online books

Below are a selection of online books and readings on the broad topic. We have more online books, journal articles, and sources in our Libraries Search and article databases.

A climate policy revolution : what the science of complexity reveals about saving our planet by Roland Kupers ISBN: 9780674246812 Publication Date: 2020 "In this book, Roland Kupers argues that the climate crisis is well suited to the bottom-up, rapid, and revolutionary change complexity science theorizes; he succinctly makes the case that complexity science promises policy solutions to address climate change."

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Peer Research Consultants Make an online 30 minute appointment for one-on-one peer assistance with your research. Get help with researching your topic, finding sources, citing sources and more. Peer Research Consultants can also help you get started with faculty-sponsored research.
Chat 24/7 online with the Libraries Ask us anything! Chat with a librarian, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week with any research or library questions.
Meet with a librarian Schedule an online consultations for personalized research support primarily for University of Minnesota faculty, instructors, graduate and undergraduate students and staff.

Inaugural Projects
Invited Proposals
News and Events

Research Themes

From our Institute-wide Grand Challenge call, we identified six broad themes of climate research challenges: adaptation and resilience, carbon removal, climate policy, climate science, human impacts, and reducing emissions. These themes are not independent, and many of the letters of interest proposed tackling more than one research category. The breadth of these themes highlights the need for Climate Grand Challenge efforts from all disciplines.

Adaptation and Resilience

Research on how to adapt and lessen the negative impacts of climate change includes efforts to develop more resilient housing stock, electric power systems, transportation, agriculture, and other infrastructure. Other research focuses on more effective early warning systems and emergency planning measures. The development of scientific models with sufficient spatial and temporal resolution for reliable, quantitative predictions of future climate risks at local scale is an important objective. Countering the human health impacts of climate change and environmental degradation will also be essential.

Carbon Removal

Achieving and sustaining net-zero emissions will almost certainly require cost-effective negative emissions technologies for removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, as well as cost-effective CO2 capture technologies at power plants and industrial facilities, both constituting carbon removal . Advanced methods for long-term sequestration of CO2 are also under development, drawing on research on geological, biological, chemical, and oceanic processes as well as coastal ecosystems providing ‘sinks’ for atmospheric carbon.

Climate Policy

Public sector leaders need climate policy innovations that can accelerate the development, demonstration, and introduction of promising new technologies for climate change mitigation. New policies that can overcome behavioral, economic, social, and political barriers to the adoption of these technologies are also important, as are those that help communities to adapt to the climate changes that will occur. Policy approaches that benefit low-income and other marginalized communities are essential. Evidence-based research on the effectiveness of alternative policy approaches for achieving these goals, as well as for rapid scaling of technological innovations, can leverage the results of investing in these innovations and may also help to guide the direction of future innovations.

Climate Science

Climate science research focuses on strategically important scientific problems whose solution will enable advances in the measurement, modelling, and forecasting of climate risks and will thereby enhance our ability to weigh these risks against the costs of climate change mitigation and adaptation. These scientific advances are being facilitated by the development of novel, low-cost sensor devices and platforms for observing the atmosphere, oceans, glaciers, and ecological systems, and by applying recent advances in computation and data science to the data acquired from these new observational platforms.

Human Impacts

Whereas the wealthiest societies have emitted the most greenhouse gas emissions per capita, the poorest societies are often at greatest risk from rising sea levels, increasingly powerful storms, wildfires, disease vectors, and disruptions to water and food supplies. Applying ecological, engineering, and urban resilience principles to social and community systems may also lead to procedural and distributive inequities. Research on human impacts focuses on measuring the distributional effects of climate-related phenomena and of the transition to low-carbon, more resilient communities, and is also focused on more inclusive and equitable strategies for climate action.

Reducing Emissions

Much of the global economy is still heavily dependent on carbon-emitting fossil fuels. Research on reducing emissions is focused on decarbonizing the global energy infrastructure, including tough-to-decarbonize sectors such as long-distance transportation, chemical refining, textile manufacturing, and cement and fertilizer production. Renewable fuels and advanced fission technologies will also feature in future low-carbon energy supply systems. Re-using construction materials and the circular economy are other key areas of research.

University of Wisconsin–Madison
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Research Guides
College Undergraduate Research Group
Current Topics: An Undergraduate Research Guide
Climate Change

Current Topics: An Undergraduate Research Guide : Climate Change

Writing, Citing, & Research Help
Black Lives Matter Movement
Hate Crimes
Fast Fashion
Health Care
Sexual Assault/Rape
Sexual Harassment
Newspaper Source Plus Newspaper Source Plus includes 1,520 full-text newspapers, providing more than 28 million full-text articles.
Newspaper Research Guide This guide describes sources for current and historical newspapers available in print, electronically, and on microfilm through the UW-Madison Libraries. These sources are categorized by pages: Current, Historical, Local/Madison, Wisconsin, US, Alternative/Ethnic, and International.

Organizations

Carbon Migration Initative The Carbon Mitigation Initiative (CMI) is a 20-year partnership between Princeton University and BP with the goal of finding solutions to the carbon and climate problem.
Climate Change and Wisconsin's Great Lakes From the State of Wisconsin's Department of Natural Resources (DNR)
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) - Climate Change
Kyoto Protocol The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which commits its Parties by setting internationally binding emission reduction targets.
Union of Concerned Scientists Our scientists and engineers develop and implement innovative, practical solutions to some of our planet’s most pressing problems—from combating global warming and developing sustainable ways to feed, power, and transport ourselves, to fighting misinformation and reducing the threat of nuclear war.

About Climate Change

Rising global temperatures have been accompanied by changes in weather and climate. It is usually attributed to an enhanced greenhouse effect, tending to intensify with the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. This Research Guide includes sources relevant to the investigation for causes and effects on the environment of the atmospheric greenhouse effect and global climate change.

Try searching these terms using the resources linked on this page: climate change*, greenhouse effect, greenhouse gas*, global climate change, global warming, greenhouse gas mitigation , carbon dioxide mitigation , carbon sequestration , global temperature changes, paleoclimatology , deglaciation , fossil fuel* and climate change*

Overview Resources - Background Information

Global Climate Change From NASA
Opposing Viewpoints Resource Center Opposing Viewpoints Resource Center (OVRC) provides viewpoint articles, topic overviews, statistics, primary documents, links to websites, and full-text magazine and newspaper articles related to controversial social issues.
State of the Climate Fact sheets & briefs from the Pew Center on Global Climate Change

Articles - Scholarly and Popular

Academic Search Includes scholarly and popular articles on many topics.
Environmental Sciences and Pollution Management Includes articles on basic science areas of bacteriology, ecology, toxicology, environmental engineering, environmental biotechnology, waste management, and water resources.
Meteorological & Geoastrophysical Abstracts Includes articles on the fields of meteorology, climatology, physical oceanography, hydrology, glaciology, and atmospheric chemistry and physics
Web of Science Includes predominately scholarly articles on a wide range of scientific disciplines.

Statistics and Data

Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES) An independent, nonpartisan, nonprofit organization working to advance strong policy and action to address our climate and energy challenges.
National Climatic Data Center NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) provids public access to the largest archive of climatic and historical weather data.
U.S. Global Change Research Program The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) was established by Presidential Initiative in 1989 and mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act (GCRA) of 1990 to “assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.”
U.S. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report: 1990-2014 EPA develops an annual report called the Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks (Inventory). This report tracks total annual U.S. emissions and removals by source, economic sector, and greenhouse gas going back to 1990. EPA uses national energy data, data on national agricultural activities, and other national statistics to provide a comprehensive accounting of total greenhouse gas emissions for all man-made sources in the United States.
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Hot Topics on Climate Change

On June 1, 2017, U.S. President Donald Trump announced he will withdraw the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement. In spite of this announcement, the fact remains that a global climate change agreement under the United Nations was adopted in December 2015 in Paris. Prior to Trump’s presidency, countries—including the United States— had submitted their “intended nationally determined contributions” (INDCs) for the next one-and-a-half decades. These INDCs lower global greenhouse gas emissions compared to existing policies. However, when projected further into the future, the INDCs still suggest a median warming of roughly 2.5 to 3.0°C by 2100. This exceeds the “well-below 2°C” aim of the Paris Agreement, and year-2030 emissions are higher than what energy-economic analyses indicate would minimize overall costs in view of the necessary long-term reductions. Should the United States really depart the Paris Agreement, which can only technically happen on November 4, 2020 (at the earliest), the situation will only get worst.

Many hot topics have marked the year when it comes to climate change. And it is very likely —more than 90 percent probability—using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) technical language, that these topics, and many others, will continue to be increasingly hot in the United States and elsewhere during 2017 and beyond.

The Climate in 2016

Climate conditions were not that great in 2016. Last year the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported that the global surface temperature was record warm in 2015. This presses the record set the year before by 0.16°C, the largest margin ever by which one year has beaten another on the records (NOAA 2016). And climate trends continued to break marks in 2016, according to NASA (2016).

Only in the course of this year will we know for certain, but a preliminary November 2016 WMO report assessed that 2016 will likely be the hottest year on record, with global temperatures reaching even higher marks than the record-breaking temperatures of 2015 (WMO 2016). Global average temperature by the end of 2016 was already running 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels, a number perilously close to the 1.5°C target aim of the Paris climate agreement of December 2015.

On other fronts, while global temperatures warmed, here in the United States the political climate also began to heat up. Exactly a month and a half after the landmark Paris Agreement officially took effect on November 4, 2016—when one hundred nations, accounting for 69 percent of global greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions, had formally joined the treaty (UNFCCC 2016)—Mr. Donald John Trump was formally elected by the United States Electoral College on December 19, 2016 as the country´s 45th President.

The hot topic here is that, on various recent occasions, President Trump expressed his skepticism about human-induced climate change. This included a tweet expressing a view that “the concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive,” and various other public manifestations. Trump stated that with his “America First Energy Plan” he would revert all of President Obama´s policies on climate change, which would include cancelling the country’s participation in the Paris Agreement, ending U.S. funding of the United Nations climate change programs, and abandoning the Clean Power Plan—in order to bring back the coal industry.

Mr. Trump’s leadership choices for the Department of Energy, the Department of Interior and the Environmental Protection Agency—the three most important, energy-policy-related Federal State institutions—have either denied or strongly challenged the science of climate change. In fact, at the same time that many world leaders are creating dedicated policies to support climate change mitigation and supporting renewable energy sources in order to open new economic sectors, some world leaders perceive this movement as a threat to existing, more conservative, economic forces, like the ones associated with the fossil-fuel industry (Nature 2016b). And indeed, on June 1, 2017, when President Trump proclaimed that the United States was quitting the Paris Climate Agreement, he very much pleased some of the forces within his administration that goaded him to do so.

The Paris Agreement: The Starting Point of a Three-Year Process

Under the December 2015 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Paris Agreement, more than 190 nations committed to take ambitious action 1) to hold the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, 2) to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C, and 3) to achieve net zero emissions in the second half of this century (UNFCCC 2016a). This means that, from emissions of roughly 50 GtCO2eq/yr today, in the second half this century these emissions will not only need to be zeroed completely, but turned negative.

This will only be possible with massive carbon sequestration, which is the process of removing carbon from the atmosphere and depositing it in a reservoir. The candidate sectors for this process are the land use sector, with the afforestation and reforestation of large areas of the globe, and the power sector, with the use of carbon dioxide removal technologies, such as fossil-fuel-based and biomass-based power plants with carbon capture and sequestration facilities.

Already earlier, in preparation of the agreement, countries had submitted their “intended nationally determined contributions” (INDCs) for the agreed 2025 to 2030 period, promising to lower global GHG emissions compared to already existing policies. These INDCs outline national plans to address climate change after 2020. They address a range of issues of which targets and actions for mitigating GHG emissions are a core component.

The Paris Agreement is a general document, with a framework and overarching goals for global climate action. It is the beginning of a longer process. Some of its loose ends were tied up during the 22nd Session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 22) in Marrakech in November of 2016 (UNFCCC 2016b)—which served as the first meeting of the governing body of the Agreement. But ironing out Paris Agreement details will take some time. Countries participating in COP 22 aim to have the process established by 2018, with a review of progress planned for this same year. But the only concrete outcomes of COP 22 were procedural in nature, with parties to the Convention adopting work plans for further discussions.

However, the real result of the Paris Agreement and of COP 22 (and their long-term success) will depend on assessments of whether or not the already committed pledges, and the ones to come, will have the expected effect on reducing aggregate GHG emissions. Success will mean that the world achieved the temperature objective of holding global warming to well below 2°C and is continuing to “pursue efforts“ to limit it to 1.5°C.

Temperature Increase as a Consequence of the INDCs

It should come as no surprise that limiting global warming to any level implies that the total amount of GHG emissions that can ever be emitted into the atmosphere is finite, given the technical and economic limitations of carbon sequestration possibilities to compensate for that. For example, for a higher than 66 percent chance (meaning “likely”) of limiting global warming to below the internationally agreed temperature limit of 2°C, carbon budget estimates range around 590 to1,240 Gt CO2 from 2015 onward (Rogelj et al 2016b).

According to IPCC language, a statement that an outcome is “likely” means that the probability of this outcome can range from ≥66 percent (fuzzy boundaries implied) to 100 percent probability. This implies that all alternative outcomes are “unlikely” (0 to 33 percent probability). To put this carbon-budged range in perspective, given current annual emissions of about 40 Gt CO2 globally, this means that the world has a budget of no more than 15 to 60 years of CO2 emissions left at the level of today´s emissions to limiting global warming to 2°C. Only the successful deployment of carbon sequestration practices and technologies could extend this time frame.

More specifically, for keeping warming to below 2°C, some two thirds of the total CO2 budget have already been emitted, with an urgent need for global CO2 emissions to start to decline, so as not to foreclose the possibility of holding warming to below 2°C. The Paris Agreement acknowledges both of these insights and aims, on the one hand, to reach global peaking of GHG emissions as soon as possible and, on the other hand, to achieve “a balance” between anthropogenic emissions and removals of GHGs in the second half of this century (UNFCCC 2016a).

The purpose of this digest is to assess the extent to which the proposed INDCs impact global GHG emissions by 2030, and explore the consistency of these reductions with the “well below 2°C” objective of the Paris Agreement. This analysis draws heavily on a previous published work (Rogelj et al 2016a), in which I was one of the authors, and where we updated and expanded INDC modelling results that were collected in the framework of the 2015 UNEP Emissions Gap Report (UNEP 2015), in which I was also one of the authors.

The number of INDCs considered by the studies we assessed ranged from the initial 118 INDCs submitted by October 1, 2015 to the final 160 INDCs from the different parties submitted by December 12, 2015 (Rogelj et al 2016a). These INDCs cover emissions from Parties to the Convention responsible for roughly 85 to 88 percent to more than 96 percent of global emissions in 2012. Furthermore, we look at projections of global-mean temperature increase over the twenty-first century that would be consistent with the INDCs, and at post-2030 implications of the INDCs for limiting warming to no more than 2°C.

We used four scenario groups to frame the implications of the INDCs for global GHGs in 2030: 1) no-policy baseline scenarios, 2) current-policy scenarios, 3) INDC scenarios, and 3) least-cost 2°C scenarios:

No-policy baseline scenarios are emissions projections that assume that no new climate policies have been put into place from 2005 onwards. In this analysis, the no-policy baseline scenarios are selected from the scenario database that accompanied the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) (available at: https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/AR5DB/ ) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) By design, these no-policy baseline scenarios exclude climate policies, but may include other policies that can influence emissions and are implemented for other reasons, like some energy efficiency or energy security policies.
Current-policy scenarios consider the most recent estimates of global emissions and take into account implemented policies. These scenarios were drawn from three global INDC analyses (see Rogelj et al 2016a for more details). Not all countries and sectors are covered by these official and independent country-specific data sources. If this is the case, the median estimate of the three global studies for the ‘current-policy baseline’ for that country or sector is assumed.
INDC scenarios are at the core of this analysis. They project how global GHG emissions would evolve under the INDCs. These projections are based on the eight global INDC analyses (see Rogelj et al 2016a for more details), which in their calculations use official estimates from the countries themselves.
2°C scenarios are idealized global scenarios which are consistent with limiting warming to well below 2°C, keeping open the option of strengthening the global temperature target to 1.5°C. These scenarios are based on a subset of scenarios from the IPCC AR5 Scenario Database that meet the following criteria: they have a greater than 66 per cent chance of keeping warming to below 2°C by 2100; until 2020, they assume that the actions countries pledged earlier under the UNFCCC Cancun Accord are fully implemented; and after 2020, they distribute emission reductions across regions, gases and sectors in such a way that the total discounted costs of the necessary global reductions are minimised, often referred to as least-cost or cost-optimal trajectories.

All scenarios are here expressed in terms of billion tons of global annual CO2 equivalent emissions (Gt CO2e/yr), with. CO2 equivalence of other GHGs calculated by means of 100-year global warming potentials (GWP-100) (Rogelj et al 2016a).

INDC Aggregate Emissions Impact

Different countries report their INDCs differently. Some provide ranges instead of a single number of emissions reductions. Many INDCs lack necessary details, including clarity on sectors and gases covered, on the base year or a reference from which reductions would be measured, or accounting practices related to land use and the use of specific market mechanisms. Also, some of the actions listed in INDCs are, implicitly or explicitly, conditional on other factors, like the availability of financial or technological support. The interpretation of all these factors influences the range of possible outcomes. So, conditional and unconditional INDC scenarios have to be distinguished from each other, although some argue that, implicitly, all INDCs are conditional, with “some being more conditional than others.” This is because, even if a country submits an unconditional INDC, later in time facts out of a country’s control may change its future priorities. Even so, we will keep here a distinction between conditional and unconditional INDCs.

Unconditionally, the INDCs are expected to result in global GHG emissions of about 55 (52 to 57; 10 to 90 percent range) billion tons of annual CO2 equivalent emissions (Gt CO2e/yr; see four scenerio groups above and Figure 1 below) in 2030. This is a reduction of around 9 (7 to 13) Gt CO2e/yr by 2030 relative to the median no-policy baseline scenario estimate and around 4 (2 to 8) Gt CO2e/yr relative to the median current-policy scenario estimate. To have these numbers in context, global GHG emissions in 2010 are estimated at about 48 (46 to 50) Gt CO2e/yr (UNEP 2015), and our median no-policy baseline estimate reaches about 65 Gt CO2e/yr by 2030.

Figure 1: Global greenhouse gas emissions as implied by submitted INDCs compared to no-policy baseline, current-policy, and 2°C scenarios. White lines show the median of each respective range. The white dashed line shows the median estimate of what the INDCs would deliver if all conditionalities are met. To avoid clutter, the 20th and 80th percentile ranges are shown for the no-policy baseline and 2°C scenarios. For current-policy and the INDC scenarios, the minimum-maximum and central 80th percentile range across all assessed studies are given. Each different symbol-colour combination represents one study. Dashed brown lines connect data points for each study.

A number of countries place conditions on all or part of their INDC. Some included a range of reduction targets in their INDC and attached conditions to the implementation of the more ambitious end. Others indicate that their entire INDC is conditional. Of the INDCs submitted, roughly half came with both conditional and unconditional components, a third was conditional only, and the rest did not make any distinction.

For a number of countries, the targets included in their INDC submission suggest achieving emission levels above the estimated no-policy baseline or their current-policy scenario. These countries are thus expected to overachieve their INDC climate targets by default.

Uncertainties in the Estimates and Optimal 2°C Pathways

There is a wide range of possible estimates of future emissions under nominally similar scenarios. These differences are a result of a number of factors, including modeling methods, input data, and assumptions regarding country intent. In fact, four confounding factors in this respect can be identified: 1) global and national sectors coverage, 2) uncertainties in projections, 3) land-use emissions, and 4) historical emissions and metrics.

Once the GHG implications of the INDCs by 2030 are quantified, the question that remains is whether these levels are consistent with the Paris Agreement’s aim of holding warming to well below 2°C. The Paris Agreement’s aim of reaching net-zero GHG emissions in the second half of the century goes even further. For some non-CO2 emissions, only limited mitigation options have been identified. Therefore, net-zero CO2 emissions are always achieved before achieving net-zero GHG emissions. The Scenario Database that accompanied the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Chang (IPCC) is used to explore cost-optimal 2°C pathways from 2020 onward (four scenerios).

The comparison of these cost-optimal 2°C scenarios to the INDC projections shows a large discrepancy (Fig. 1). The median cost-optimal path towards keeping warming to below 2°C (starting reductions in 2020) and the emissions currently implied by the unconditional INDCs differ by about 14 (10–16) Gt CO2e/yr in 2030. Even if the conditions that are linked to some INDCs are met, this difference remains of the order of 11 Gt CO2e/yr. As they stand now, the INDCs clearly do not lead the world to a pathway towards limiting warming to well below 2°C.

Implications of INDCs Post 2030

A large share of the potential warming until 2100 is determined not just by the INDCs until 2025 or 2030, but also by what happens afterwards. Different approaches can be followed to extend INDCs into the future, which basically assume that climate action stops, continues, or accelerates. Stopping action is often modelled by assuming that emissions return to a no-climate-policy trajectory after 2030; continuing action by assuming that the level of post-2030 action is similar to pre-2030 action on the basis of a metric of choice; and accelerating action by post-2030 action that goes beyond such a level. Because of the path-dependence and inertia of the global energy system, the INDCs have a critical role in preparing what can come afterwards.

Each approach may lead to different global temperature outcomes, even when starting from the same INDC assessment for 2025 to 2030. As a conservative interpretation of the Paris Agreement, the assumption made here is that climate action continues after 2030 at a level of ambition that is similar to that of the INDCs. The assumption that climate action will continue or accelerate over time is supported by the Agreement’s requirement that the successive nationally determined contribution (NDC) of each country must represent a progression beyond the earlier contributions, and reflect the highest possible ambition of that country.

Under these assumptions of continued climate action, the 2030 unconditional-INDC emission range is roughly consistent with a median warming relative to pre-industrial levels of 2.6 to 3.1°C (median, 2.9°C; full scenario projection uncertainty, 2.2 to 3.5°C; Table 1), with warming continuing its increase afterwards. This is an improvement on the current-policy and no-policy baseline scenarios, whose median projections suggest about 3.2°C and more than 4°C of temperature rise by 2100, respectively.

The successful implementation of all conditional INDCs would decrease the median estimate by an additional 0.2°C, but keeps the outcome far from the targets the Paris Agreement is aiming for, with well-below 2°C and 1.5°C of warming. Moreover, all above-mentioned values represent median projections coming out of emission scenarios, which in themselves are a function of uncertain assumptions with respect to population growth (more growth, more emissions), economic growth (here too, more growth, more emissions) and even rates of technological improvements (more improvements, less emissions).

Because the climate response to GHG emissions remains uncertain, it is also possible that substantially higher temperatures will materialize with compelling likelihoods (Table 1). For example, at the 66th percentile level, warming under the unconditional INDCs is projected to be about 0.3 °C higher (3.2°C, with a range of 2.9 to 3.4°C). Finally, the INDC cases that are discussed here will exceed the available carbon budget for keeping warming to below 2°C by 2030 with 66 percent probability (that is, roughly 750 to 800 Gt CO2e implied emissions under the INDCs during the 2011 to 2030 period compared to the 750 to 1,400 Gt CO2e available).

Table 1: Estimates of global temperature rise for INDC and other scenarios categories. For each scenario, temperature values at the 50 percent, 66 percent and 90 percent probability levels are provided for the median emission estimates, as well as the 10th–90th-percentile range of emissions estimates (in parentheses) and the same estimates when also including scenario projection uncertainty (in brackets). Temperature increases are relative to pre-industrial levels (1850–1900), and are derived from simulations with a probabilistic set-up with the simple model MAGICC (see Rogelj et al 2016a for more details).

The question thus arises whether global temperature rise can be kept to well below 2°C with accelerated action after 2030. Global scenarios that aim to keep warming to below 2°C and that achieve this objective from 2030 GHG emissions similar to those from the INDC range have been assessed in detail by recent large-scale model-comparison projects (Clarke et al 2014 and Riahi et al 2015), but show that even with accelerated action after 2030 options to keep warming to well below 2°C from current INDCs are severely limited, particularly if some key mitigation technologies, such as Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) or CCS with biomass energy (BECCS), for example, do not scale up as anticipated.

Scenarios in which global warming is successfully contained show rapidly declining emissions after 2030, with global CO2 emissions from energy- and industry-related sources reaching net-zero levels between 2060 and 2080. The global economy is thus assumed to fully decarbonize in the time span of three to five decades and from 2030 levels that are higher than today’s. Furthermore, about two-thirds of these scenarios achieve a balance of global GHG emissions between 2080 and 2100. Because some non-CO2 emissions are virtually impossible to eliminate entirely (for example those from specific agricultural or animal agricultural sources), reaching such a balance will involve net-negative CO2 emissions at a global scale to compensate for any residual non-CO2 emissions, limiting global-average temperatures increase over time.

Exploring futures in which a global balance of GHG emissions can be achieved in the second half of this century with technically feasible and societally acceptable technologies represents a major research challenge emerging from the Paris Agreement. This challenge is particularly relevant to policy, because limiting emissions in 2030 does not only increase the chances of attaining the 2°C target, but also reduces the need to rely on unproven, potentially risky or controversial technologies in the future (Clark et al 2014 and Riahi et al 2015).

Final Considerations

The world has made its decision on Climate Change, despite some recent setbacks here and there. As a recent Editorial of the New York Times put it very clearly, “It´s hard to know how Mr. Trump will change climate policy, but it is almost certain that he won’t advance it” (The New York Times 2016). And indeed, if it is true that the United States will leave the Paris Agreement, for sure it will lose the ability to pressure other countries, including the large emerging economies like Brazil, China and India, to do more.

On the global front, as discussed here, actions may still be too slow and/or too weak, but we can be optimistic and say that, in spite of some hurdles on the way, momentum is building. Covering more than 90 percent of the world’s GHG emissions with climate plans in the form of INDCs was a historic achievement. Now that the Paris Agreement came into force, and that the original INDCs are not simply “Intended” anymore (so, they are no longer INDCs but now Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs), it will continue with NDCs, subject to strong transparency of individual contributions and a global stock-take, in the light of equity and science, every five years.

However, the optimism accompanying this process has to be carefully balanced against the important challenges that current INDCs imply for post-2030 emissions reductions. Even starting now limiting warming to no more than 2°C relative to preindustrial levels constitutes an enormous societal challenge. While the contributions open a new era for climate policy under the Paris agreement, they also represent both an invitation and call, if not a need, for further action. Furthering deeper reductions in the coming decade, as well as preparing for a global transformation until mid-century are critical. In absence of incrementally stronger policy signals over the coming five years to a decade, the likelihood that our society will be able to meet the challenge of limiting warming to below 2°C with less than even odds will become extremely small.

Therefore, let us put this clear: Should the United States’ new administration, indeed step back from the previous administration commitment, two possibilities could arise. First, other major emitting nations could also follow suit, turning the Paris Agreement an absolutely irrelevant effort of international negotiation, driving the planet towards unknown climate consequences. Second, because the United States is the second largest GHG emitter, with some 15 percent of world´s total emissions, any climate-change global agreement to succeed would probably also require to have the United States on board, something that is now under a question mark. Therefore, the latter in itself is already a problem even if the former does not materialize. Interestingly enough, the very structure of the Paris Agreement, like the Kyoto Protocol, was designed largely to United States specifications, and also an answer to United States’ prayers.

The problem is that, in fact, political upsets could stall coordinated international mitigation action, with long-term consequences, eventually even rendering the 2°C target unachievable (Sanderson et at 2016). Interesting enough, although the governments of the world have requested the IPCC to assess, through a Special Report due in 2018 (IPCC 2016), the impacts of 1.5°C of warming, as well as ways to prevent temperatures from rising higher, many scientists have practically already written off the chances of limiting warming to 1.5 °C (Rogelj et al 2016b and Luderer et al 2016).

As discussed before, the Paris Agreement commits governments to keeping average global surface temperatures to between 1.5°C and 2°C above the preindustrial level, but warming has already passed the 1°C mark (WMO 2016). If the 2°C goal is already seen implausible by some, given a lack of more effective actions and current politics, let alone the even more ambitions 1.5°C target (Nature 2016a), let us hope that the economies of the world will be able to do their homework on time. We cannot travel the last mile with quick fixes, which would be too dependent on extremely risky and uncertain technologies, such as geoengineering, as some have begun to consider (Hubert et al 2016). Unfortunately, the recent move of the current United States Administration with respect to the Paris Agreement is not going to be of much help in that respect.

T his digest has been inspired by from Rogelj et al (2016a), of which Roberto Schaeffer is one of the authors. The author wishes to acknowledge extremely helpful comments from a reviewer of an earlier draft. Any remaining errors are the responsibility of the author alone.

Roberto Schaeffer

Clarke, L. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds O. Edenhofer et al.) Ch. 6, 413-510 (Cambridge University Press, 2014). Hubert, AM., Kruger, T. Rayner, S. Code of conduct for geoengineering. Nature 537, 488 (2016). IPCC. Scoping Meeting for the IPCC Special Report on the Impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. Geneva, Switzerland, 15-16 August. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/ , accessed on 30 December (2016). Luderer, G., Kriegler, E., Delsa, L., Edelenbosch, O. Y., Emmerling, J., Krey, V., McCollum, D. L., Pachauri, S., Riahi, K., Saveyn, B., Tavoni, M., Vrontisi, Z., van Vuuren, D. P., Arent, D., Arvesen, A., Fujimori, S., Iyer, G. Keppo, I., Kermeli, K., Mima, S., Ó Broin, E., Pietzcker, R. C., Sano, F., Scholz, Y., van Ruijven, B. & Wilson, C. Deep decarbonisation towards 1.5 °C – 2 °C stabilisation. Policy findings from the ADVANCE project (first edition, 2016). NASA. https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/climate-trends-continue-to-bre… , accessed on 20 December (2016). Nature. Climate ambition. Nature 537, 585-586, 29 September (2016a). Nature. Let reason prevail. Nature 538, 289, 20 October (2016b). NOAA. http://www.noaa.gov/climate , accessed on 20 December (2016). Riahi, K. et al. Locked into Copenhagen pledges — Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 90, Part A, 8-23, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.016 (2015). Rogelj, J., den Elzen, M., Hohne, N., Fransen, T., Fekete, H., Winkler, H., Schaeffer, R., Sha, F., Riahi, K. & Meinshausen, M. Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C. Nature 534, 631-639, doi:10.1038/nature18307 (2016a). Rogelj, J., Schaeffer, M., Friedlingstein, P., Gillett, N. P., van Vuuren, D. P., Riahi, K., Allen, M. & Knutti, R. Differences between carbon budget estimates unravelled. Nature Climate Change 6, 245-252-, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2868 (2016b). Sanderson, B. M. & Knutti, R. Delays in US mitigation could rulled out Paris targets. Nature Climate Change, advance publication, published online on 26 December, http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3193.html , accessed on 28 December (2016). The New York Times. States Will Lead on Climate Change in the Trump Era. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/26/opinion/states-will-lead-on-climate-ch… , accessed on 26 December (2016). UNEP. The Emissions Gap Report 2015. 98 (UNEP, Nairobi, Kenya, 2015). UNFCCC. Adoption of the Paris Agreement. Report No. FCCC/CP/2015/L.9/Rev.1, http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/109r01.pdf , accessed on 20 December (2016a). UNFCCC. http://unfccc.int/meetings/marrakech_nov_2016/session/9676.php , assessed on 27 December (2016b). WMO. https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/provisional-wmo-statement-… , accessed on 20 December (2016).

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Research papers: climate change.

By Jonathan Eyer, Casey Wichman

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 87

Water withdrawals for the energy sector are the largest use of fresh water in the United States. Using an econometric model of monthly plant-level electricity generation levels between 2001 and 2012, we estimate the effect of water scarcity on the US electricity fuel mix. We find that hydroelectric generation decreases substantially in response to drought, although this baseline generation is offset primarily by natural gas, depending on the geographic region. We provide empirical evidence that drought can increase emissions of CO2 and local pollutants. We quantify the social costs of water scarcity to be $330,000 per month for each plant that experiences a one-standard deviation increase in water scarcity (2015 dollars), a relationship that persists under future projections of water scarcity.

By Solomon Hsiang, Paulina Oliva, Reed Walker

Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Volume 13, Issue 1

Most regulations designed to reduce environmental externalities impose costs on individuals and firms. A large and growing literature examines whether these costs are disproportionately borne by different sectors of the economy and/or across different groups of individuals. However, much less is known about how the environmental benefits created by these policies are distributed, which mirror the differences in environmental damages associated with existing environmental externalities. We review this burgeoning literature and develop a simple general framework for empirical analysis. We apply this framework to findings concerning the distributional impacts of environmental damages from air pollution, deforestation, and climate change and highlight priorities for future research. A recurring challenge to understanding the distributional effects of environmental damages is distinguishing between cases in which populations are exposed to different levels or changes in an environmental good and those in which an incremental change in the environment may have very different implications for some populations. In the latter case, it is often difficult to empirically identify the underlying sources of heterogeneity in marginal damages because damages may stem from nonlinear and/or heterogeneous damage functions. Nevertheless, understanding the determinants of heterogeneity in environmental benefits and damages is crucial for welfare analysis and policy design.

By Gale M. Sinatra

Educational and Developmental Psychologist

The climate crisis is the defining issue of our time. Educational and developmental psychologists can make clear and important contributions to addressing this existential threat. The articles in the Climate Crisis Special Issue take on the issue of climate change from multiple angles, with varied populations, using different research methods and theoretical frameworks. The special issue makes clear the important role psychologists have to play in addressing the climate crisis.

Journal of Educational Psychology

Texts presenting novel numerical data can shift learners’ attitudes and conceptions about controversial science topics. However, little is known about the mechanisms underlying this conceptual change. The purpose of this study was to investigate two potential mechanisms that underlie learning from novel data: numerical estimation skills and epistemic cognition. This research investigated combinations of two treatments—a numerical estimation and epistemic cognition intervention—that were designed to enhance people’s ability to make sense of key numbers about climate change when integrated into an existing intervention. Results indicated that undergraduate students ( N = 516) who engaged with climate change data held fewer misconceptions compared with a group that read an expository text, though their judgments of climate change plausibility were similar. Results also showed that the two modifications to the central intervention did not have statistically significant effects on knowledge or plausibility when compared with the unmodified intervention. However, we found that individuals’ openness to reason with and integrate new evidence significantly moderated the knowledge effects of the intervention when the intervention was supplemented with both modifications. These findings provide emerging evidence that, among those who are open to reason with new evidence, supporting mathematical reasoning skills and reflection on discrepant information can enhance conceptual change in science.

By Doug Lombardi, Gale M.Sinatra, E. Michael Nussbaum

Learning and Instruction, 27

Plausibility is a central but under-examined topic in conceptual change research. Climate change is an important socio-scientific topic; however, many view human-induced climate change as implausible. When learning about climate change, students need to make plausibility judgments but they may not be sufficiently critical or reflective. The purpose of this study was to examine how students’ plausibility judgments and knowledge about human-induced climate change transform during instruction promoting critical evaluation. The results revealed that treatment group participants who engaged in critical evaluation experienced a significant shift in their plausibility judgments toward the scientifically accepted model of human-induced climate change. This shift was accompanied by significant conceptual change postinstruction that was maintained after a six-month delay. A comparison group who experienced a climate change activity that is part of their normal curriculum did not experience statistically significant changes.

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A broad range of projects is offered by academic staff in the Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC) at the University of New South Wales. If you are interested in pursuing a PhD, Masters or Honours in climate science, please contact the academic whose areas of research interest you.

Associate Professor Gab Abramowitz

Climate model evaluation, climate model ensembles, probabilistic forecasts, applied maths in climate research (e.g. neural networks and clustering, non-linear time series analysis/chaos theory), land surface, ecological and hydrological modelling.

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Climate variability and change, especially extreme events, global dataset development, observational analysis, global climate model evaluation and intercomparison, statistical modelling including extreme value theory, large scale modes of variability and climate drivers, data rescue.

Professor Jason Evans

Land-atmosphere interactions, water cycle processes, remote sensing of the land surface, land surface & hydrological modelling, regional climate modelling, fire spread and fire-atmosphere interactions, climate change impacts, especially on freshwater resources and agriculture.

Associate Professor Melissa Hart

The impact of land use, surface characteristics and anthropogenic activities on the climate of cities, quantification of the magnitude of the urban heat island (UHI), weather and climate sensitivity of energy consumption, air pollution meteorology, statistical climatology.

Dr Martin Jucker

Atmospheric dynamics, effects of the stratosphere on surface weather and climate. Cause-and-effect studies with simpler climate models. Annular Modes, the interaction between the tropics and high latitudes, and atmospheric wave dynamics.

Professor Katrin Meissner

Earth system science, with special emphasis on abrupt climate change, as well as feedbacks and thresholds in the climate system. The role of oceans in climate change/variability; earth system modelling (ocean, land, atmosphere, cryosphere, biosphere) addressing past and future climate change. Geophysical fluid dynamics, biogeochemistry, palaeoproxy data-model comparison, isotope modelling.

Associate Professor Laurie Menviel

Impact of changes in oceanic circulation on climate and the carbon cycle, with a particular focus on Southern Ocean dynamics.

Professor Andy Pitman

Land surface processes, global and regional modelling, projections of future mean and extreme climate, vegetation dynamics, carbon cycle, abrupt climate change, probabilistic projections of climate change.

Associate Professor Alex Sen Gupta

The effects of climate change and variability on ocean circulation, its physical characteristic and how this affects marine species; marine heat waves; IPCC model evaluation and climate projections; the effect of climate variability (e.g. ENSO, SAM, IOD) on regional climate variability and change.

Professor Steve Sherwood

Physical processes controlling Earth’s climate sensitivity, clouds, water vapour, precipitation, and interactions across scales. Modelling and analysis of global satellite and in-situ observations. Identifying and improving flaws in current climate models.

Dr Tim Raupach

Severe storms and climate change, especially hailstorms and their changes. Atmospheric modelling and numerical weather simulation, regional climate modelling, atmospheric remote sensing, precipitation microstructure, climate change impacts and risks.

Associate Professor Andréa Taschetto

Rainfall variability and atmospheric teleconnections associated with large-scale climate drivers, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole.

You might also like to browse the topics of researchers associated with the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes.

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Climate Change Research

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EPA’s Climate Change Research seeks to improve our understanding of how climate change impacts human health and the environment.

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Research areas

The Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment brings together international expertise from a wide range of disciplines, including economics, finance, geography, the environment, international development and the political economy. This expertise enables us to produce globally recognised, policy-relevant research and analysis. Our work is divided across the following 13 broad research areas.

Biodiversity

Biodiversity represents the variety and variability of life on Earth – it underpins and is fundamentally affected by human activity.

Climate change adaptation and resilience

How we can improve the resilience of countries, communities and companies to current and future climate change impacts.

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Climate change governance, legislation and litigation

The role of climate governance, laws, policies and court cases in tackling climate change. Includes our Climate Change Laws of the World database.

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Assessing the global health threat posed by climate change due to factors such as increasing heat, extreme weather events, food insecurity, greater spread of infectious diseases, and greater psychological trauma.

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Environmental behaviour

Examining how people make decisions and behave with respect to environmental issues, a critical input to our transition to a more sustainable pathway.

Environmental economic theory

Using theoretical techniques from the economics discipline to study climate change and environmental problems.

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Environmental policy evaluation

Analysing the effectiveness and impacts of current and future climate and energy policies, from the local to the international.

International climate politics

Focusing the spotlight on the role of international cooperation, diplomacy and political leadership in tackling climate change.

Science and impacts of climate change

The role of climate science and modelling in helping to project the environmental, social and economic impacts of climate change.

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The policy and practical challenges of ensuring the environment and natural resources are sustainably maintained and used.

Sustainable public and private finance

How to effectively mobilise finance to realise the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals.

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Transition to zero emissions growth

Understanding the economic, technological, behavioural and institutional factors that will assist the transition to zero emissions growth.

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Have a question?

What are the biggest challenges and innovations for new climate models, with growing computing power, scientists hope that new models will narrow the range of possible climate futures and give a clearer picture of local and regional impacts..

April 10, 2024

Climate models can give us a preview of how humanity’s actions—or inaction—will change our planet over the coming decades and centuries. They reveal what happens to temperatures, sea levels , and other factors under different scenarios, such as if people cease creating climate pollution or if they go on with business-as-usual-emissions. But because the planet is such a complex system, they aren’t perfect: climate models have uncertainties that grow larger as they go farther into the future. Research that improves our understanding of climate physics, as well as new innovations in computing that help modelers work with enormous data sets, can shrink those uncertainties.

That will make climate scientists more confident in the precision of their long-term predictions, explains MIT professor of oceanography Raffaele Ferrari—especially when it comes to the fine details of how climate change will affect different regions differently.

Ferrari says there are two major challenges when building a reliable model of the Earth’s climate system. The first is how well scientists understand and can mathematically simulate the basic physics of the climate system, such as cloud formation, wind patterns, and ocean currents. The second is computation, because even a simplified version of an entire planet’s climate requires an enormous amount of computing power. New innovations in either field could make tomorrow’s climate models more sophisticated and realistic, Ferrari says.

It might seem like the basic mechanics that govern our climate are long-settled science. However, although the physics of air and water flow can be described down to the molecular level, that’s not true for every piece of climate physics, says Ferrari.

“Clouds clearly matter for climate, but how ice crystals and cloud droplets form, how they coalesce to form a cloud, that is what we call cloud microphysics. It gets all the way to quantum mechanics. We don't really have a perfect understanding of the process.”

Climate modelers must approximate these systems as best they can, using observations of how climate features like clouds behave in practice in place of true physical laws. These best guesses are called parameterizations, Ferrari says, “because they depend on some parameters that you don’t know.” Different climate models may set differing parameters for something like the exact relationship between clouds and moisture, which leads to variations between models. These small differences become big ones as models reach decades into the future.

Advances in computer processing have the biggest potential to reduce those uncertainties and make climate models ever more precise, Ferrari says. In fact, that’s long been the case. “If you look historically at climate models starting from the 1960s when the first climate models were developed, I would say that the largest contributor to their improved accuracy has been computer power.”

Even in the case of simple Newtonian physics, which scientists understand down to the molecule, there simply isn’t enough computing power in the world to simulate every millimeter of the atmosphere and the ocean. As a result, the resolution of even today’s state-of-the-art models is quite large—about 25 kilometers square (around 10 square miles). That’s good for broadly simulating planet-wide trends, but it means “a lot of physics falls through the cracks,” Ferrari says.

That’s where computing power can help. Climate scientists have yet to take full advantage of new computing technologies such as circuits called GPUs that can perform very-high-speed calculations. With that more powerful technology, Ferrari says, “all of a sudden you can resolve more of the physics that you understand.” There is still no way to simulate the whole planet down to the centimeter level, but advances in computing make it possible to create climate models with finer resolution, which makes their parameterizations that much less uncertain.

It’s not just about raw computing power, either. Recent leaps in artificial intelligence and machine learning also have major implications for climate models. Machine learning, at its core, is the use of large data sets to train computer models. If you apply that logic to the climate, Ferrari says, then machine learning could be set loose on climate data and figure out how to use all that historical information to calibrate the small-scale physics in climate models.

“I don't think there is anything else with the same level of complexity as climate models,” Ferrari says. “You want to represent the physics, the chemistry, and the biology of the system to a pretty high level of accuracy. Because if I wanted to know the mean temperature of the Earth within 10 degrees, you can use pretty simple basic laws. But we're asking for much more precision than that.”

Thank you to Manish Mishra of Munich, Germany, for the question.

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Embracing Business Practices That Actually Improve the World

Caitlin McElroy,
Roberta Roesler,

What organizations need to know about adopting “regenerative” practices that actively help ecosystems and communities — not just minimize harm to them.

The science is clear that the track we’re on is not good enough to prevent further catastrophic effects from climate change. We’re beyond a point where we can merely aim to do less bad; we need to actively regenerate the areas that have experienced significant degradation. Regenerative businesses aim to improve ecosystems and communities, rather than simply minimize harm to them. But in this rapidly expanding, philosophically attractive, and still unsettled space of regenerative business, those who want to take action on regeneration are working from many definitions and approaches. The authors unpack some of the competing definitions of regeneration and show how certifications can help organizations ensure their regeneration strategies and practices support a truly regenerative future.

At the COP28 conference late last year, regeneration emerged as a focus for business leaders. Regenerative businesses aim to improve ecosystems and communities, rather than simply minimize harm to them. It’s no wonder it’s a hot topic — the science is screaming at us that the track we’re on is not good enough to prevent further catastrophic effects from climate change. According to the Stockholm Resilience Centre, we’ve already crossed six of the nine planetary boundaries , “ processes that are critical for maintaining the stability and resilience of [the] Earth system as a whole.”

Char Love is global director of advocacy at Natura &Co and executive in residence at Saïd Business School, University of Oxford.
CM Caitlin McElroy , PhD, is a departmental research lecturer at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford.
RR Roberta Roesler , PhD, is head of make-up development, process, and formula sustainability at Avon International and was previously global R&D director for regeneration and circularity at Natura &Co.
EF Eve Fraser is a climate policy analyst at the NewClimate Institute and was previously a research assistant at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford.

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Advancing the Science of Climate Change (2010)

Chapter: 4 integrative themes for climate change research, chapter four integrative themes for climate change research.

O ne of the main tasks assigned to the Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change was to identify the additional science needed to improve our understanding of climate change and its interactions with human and environmental systems, including the scientific advances needed to improve the effectiveness of actions taken to respond to climate change. An examination of the research needs identified in the technical chapters of Part II of the report reveals that there is indeed still much to learn. However, our analysis suggests that the most crucial research needs of the coming decades can be captured in seven crosscutting research themes, whether one is interested in sea level rise, agriculture, human health, national security, or other topics of concern. For example, nearly every chapter in Part II calls for improved understanding of human behaviors and institutions, more detailed information about projected future changes in climate, and improved methods for assessing the economic, social, and environmental costs, benefits, co-benefits, and unintended consequences of actions taken in response to climate change.

Box 4.1 lists the seven crosscutting research themes that the panel has identified, grouped into three general categories: research for improving understanding of coupled human-environment systems, research for improving and supporting more effective responses to climate change, and tools and approaches needed for both of these types of research. These seven crosscutting themes are not intended to represent a comprehensive or exclusive list of research needs, nor do the numbers indicate priority order. Rather, they represent a way of categorizing and, potentially, organizing some of the nation’s most critical climate change research activities. Most of these themes are integrative—they require collaboration across different fields of study, including some fields that are not typically part of the climate change science enterprise. Moreover, there are important synergies among the seven themes, and they are not completely independent. For example, research focused on improving responses to climate change will clearly benefit from increased understanding of both human systems and the Earth system, and advances in observations, models, and scientific understanding often go hand in hand. Finally, because most of the themes include research that contributes both to fundamental scientific understanding and to more informed decision making, research under all seven themes would benefit from

increased dialogue with decision makers across a wide range of sectors and scales. As discussed in Chapter 5 , these characteristics all point to the need for an expanded and enhanced climate change science enterprise—an enterprise that is comprehensive, integrative, interdisciplinary, and better supports decision making both in the United States and around the world.

In the following sections, the seven integrative, crosscutting research themes identified by the panel are discussed in detail. Our intent is to describe some of the more important scientific issues that could be addressed within each theme, to show how they collectively span the most critical areas of climate change research, and to demonstrate the vital importance of research progress in all of these areas to the health and well-being of citizens of the United States as well as people and natural systems around the world. Issues related to the implementation of these themes are explored in the next chapter.

THEME 1: CLIMATE FORCINGS, FEEDBACKS, RESPONSES, AND THRESHOLDS IN THE EARTH SYSTEM

Scientific understanding of climate change and its interactions with other environmental changes is underpinned by empirical and theoretical understanding of the Earth system, which includes the atmosphere, land surface, cryosphere, and oceans,

as well as interactions among these components. Numerous decisions about climate change, including setting emissions targets and developing and implementing adaptation plans, rest on understanding how the Earth system will respond to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other climate forcings. While this understanding has improved markedly over the past several decades, a number of key uncertainties remain. These include the strength of certain forcings and feedbacks, the possibility of abrupt changes, and the details of how climate change will play out at local and regional scales over decadal and centennial time scales. While research on these topics cannot be expected to eliminate all of the uncertainties associated with Earth system processes (and uncertainties in future human actions will always remain), efforts to improve projections of climate and other Earth system changes can be expected to yield more robust and more relevant information for decision making, as well as a better characterization of remaining uncertainties.

Research on forcing, feedbacks, thresholds, and other aspects of the Earth system has been ongoing for many years under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and its predecessors (see Appendix E ). Our analysis—the details of which can be found in Part II of the report—indicates that additional research, supported by expanded observational and modeling capacity, is needed to better understand climate forcings, feedbacks, responses, and thresholds in the Earth system. A list of some of the specific research needs within this crosscutting theme is included in Table 4.1 , and the subsections below and the chapters of Part II include additional discussion of these topics. Many of these needs have also been articulated, often in greater detail, in a range of recent reports by the USGCRP, the National Research Council, federal agencies, and other groups.

Climate Variability and Abrupt Climate Change

Great strides have been made in improving our understanding of the natural variability in the climate system (see, e.g., Chapter 6 of this report and USGCRP, 2009b). These improvements have translated directly into advances in detecting and attributing human-induced climate change, simulating past and future climate in models, and understanding the links between the climate system and other environmental and human systems. For example, the ability to realistically simulate natural climate variations, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, has been a critical driver for, and test of, the development of climate models (see Theme 7 ). Improved understanding of natural variability modes is also critical for improving regional climate projections, especially on decadal time scales. Research on the impacts of natural climate variations can also provide insight into the possible impacts of human-

TABLE 4.1 Examples of Research Needs Related to Improving Fundamental Understanding of Climate Forcings, Feedbacks, Responses, and Thresholds in the Earth System

induced climate change. Continued research on the mechanisms and manifesta-mechanisms and manifestations of natural climate variability in the atmosphere and oceans on a wide range of space and time scales, including events in the distant past, can be expected to yield, can be expected to yield additional progress.

Some of the largest risks associated with climate change are associated with the potential for abrupt changes or other climate “surprises” (see Chapters 3 and 6 ). The paleoclimate record indicates that such abrupt changes have occurred in the past, but our ability to predict future abrupt changes is constrained by our limited understand-

ing of thresholds and other nonlinear processes in the Earth system. An improved understanding of the likelihood and potential consequences of these changes will be important for setting GHG emissions-reduction targets and for developing adaptation strategies that are robust in the face of uncertainty. Sustained observations will be critical for identifying abrupt changes and other climate surprises if and when they occur, and for supporting the development of improved abrupt change simulations in climate models. Finally, since some abrupt changes or other climate surprises may result from complex interactions within or among different components of coupled human-environment systems, improved understanding is needed on multiple stresses and their potential role in future climate shifts (NRC, 2002a).

Improved understanding of forcings, feedbacks, and natural variability on regional scales is also needed. Many decisions related to climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation could benefit from improvements in regional-scale information, especially over the next several decades. As discussed in Theme 7 , these improvements require advances in understanding regional climate dynamics, including atmospheric circulation in complex terrain as well as modes of natural variability on all time scales. It is especially important to understand how regional variability patterns may change under different scenarios of global climate change and the feedbacks that regional changes may in turn have on continental- and global-scale processes. Regional climate models, which are discussed later in this chapter, are a key tool in this area of research.

The Atmosphere

Many research needs related to factors that influence the atmosphere and other components of the physical climate system are discussed in the chapters of Part II , and many of these needs have also been summarized in other recent reports. For example, many of the conclusions and research recommendations in Understanding Climate Change Feedbacks (NRC, 2003b) and Radiative Forcing of Climate Change (NRC, 2005d), such as those highlighted in the following two paragraphs, remain highly relevant today:

The physical and chemical processing of aerosols and trace gases in the atmosphere, the dependence of these processes on climate, and the influence of climate-chemical interactions on the optical properties of aerosols must be elucidated. A more complete understanding of the emissions, atmospheric burden, final sinks, and interactions of carbonaceous and other aerosols with clouds and the hydrologic cycle needs to be developed. Intensive regional measurement campaigns (ground-based, airborne, satellite) should be con-

ducted that are designed from the start with guidance from global aerosol models so that the improved knowledge of the processes can be directly applied in the predictive models that are used to assess future climate change scenarios.

The key processes that control the abundance of tropospheric ozone and its interactions with climate change also need to be better understood, including but not limited to stratospheric influx; natural and anthropogenic emissions of precursor species such as NO x , CO, and volatile organic carbon; the net export of ozone produced in biomass burning and urban plumes; the loss of ozone at the surface, and the dependence of all these processes on climate change. The chemical feedbacks that can lead to changes in the atmospheric lifetime of CH 4 also need to be identified and quantified. (NRC, 2003b)

Two particularly important—and closely linked—research topics related to forcing and feedback processes in the physical climate system are clouds and aerosols. Aerosols and aerosol-induced changes in cloud properties play an important role in offsetting some of the warming associated with GHG emissions and may have important implications for several proposed strategies for limiting the magnitude of climate change (see Theme 4 ). Cloud processes modulate future changes in temperature and in the hydrologic cycle and thus represent a key feedback. As noted later in this chapter, the representation of cloud and aerosol processes in climate models has been a challenge for many years, in part because some of the most important cloud and aerosol processes play out at spatial scales that are finer than global climate models are currently able to routinely resolve, and in part because of the complexity and limited understanding of the processes themselves. Continued and improved observations, field campaigns, process studies, and experiments with smaller-domain, high-resolution models are needed to improve scientific understanding of cloud and aerosol processes, and improved parameterizations will be needed to incorporate this improved understanding into global climate models.

The Cryosphere

Changes in the cryosphere, especially the major ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica, represent another key research area in the physical climate system. Comprehensive, simultaneous, and sustained measurements of ice sheet mass and volume changes and ice velocities are needed, along with measurements of ice thickness and bed conditions, both to quantify the current contributions of ice sheets to sea level rise (discussed below) and to constrain and inform ice sheet model development. These measurements, which include satellite, aircraft, and in situ observations, need

to overlap for several decades in order to enable the unambiguous isolation of ice melt, ice dynamics, snow accumulation, and thermal expansion. Equally important are investments in improving ice sheet process models that capture ice dynamics as well as ice-ocean and ice-bed interactions. Efforts are already underway to improve modeling capabilities in these critical areas, but fully coupled ice-ocean-land models will ultimately be needed to reliably assess ice sheet stability, and considerable work remains to develop and validate such models. Glaciers and ice caps outside Greenland and Antarctica are also expected to remain significant contributors to sea level rise in the near term, so observations and analysis of these systems remain critical for understanding decadal and century-scale sea level rise. Finally, additional paleoclimate data from ice cores, corals, and ocean sediments would be valuable for testing models and improving our understanding of the impacts of sea level rise.

A variety of ocean processes are important for controlling the timing and characteristics of climate change. For a given climate forcing scenario, the timing of atmospheric warming is strongly dependent on the north-south transport of heat by ocean currents and mixing of heat into the ocean interior. Changes in the large-scale meridional overturning circulation could also have a significant impact on regional and global climate and could potentially lead to abrupt changes (Alley et al., 2003; NRC, 2002a). The relative scarcity of ocean observations, especially in the ocean interior, makes these factors among the more uncertain aspects of future climate projections. Changes in ocean circulations and heat transport are also connected to the rapid disappearance of summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean. A better understanding of the dependence of ocean heat uptake on vertical mixing and the abrupt changes in polar reflectivity that follow the loss of summer sea ice in the Arctic are some of the most critical improvements needed in ocean and Earth system models.

Ice dynamics and thermal expansion are the main drivers of rising sea levels on a global basis, but ocean dynamics and coastal processes lead to substantial spatial variability in local and regional rates of sea level rise (see Chapters 2 and 7 ). Direct, long-term monitoring of sea level and related oceanographic properties via tide gauges, ocean altimetry measurements from satellites, and an expanded network of in situ measurements of temperature and salinity through the full depth of the ocean water column are needed to quantify the rate and spatial variability of sea level change and to understand the ocean dynamics that control global and local rates of sea level rise. In addition, oceanographic, geodetic, and coastal models are needed to predict the rate and spatial dynamics of ocean thermal expansion, sea level rise, and coastal

inundation. The need for regionally specific information creates additional challenges. For example, coastal inundation models require better bathymetric data, better data on precipitation rates and stream flows, ways of dealing with storm-driven sediment transport, and the ability to include the effects of built structures on coastal wind stress patterns (see Chapter 7 ). Such improvements in projections of sea level changes are critical for many different decision needs.

The Hydrosphere

There is already clear evidence that changes in the hydrologic cycle are occurring in response to climate change (see, e.g., Trenberth et al., 2007; USGCRP, 2009a). Improved regional projections of changes in precipitation, soil moisture, runoff, and groundwater availability on seasonal to multidecadal time scales are needed to inform water management and planning decisions, especially decisions related to long-term infrastructure investments. Likewise, projections of changes in the frequency and intensity of severe storms, storm paths, floods, and droughts are critical both for water management planning and for many adaption decisions. Developing improved understanding and projections of hydrological and water resource changes will require new multiscale modeling approaches, such as nesting cloud-resolving climate models into regional weather models and then coupling these models to land surface models that are capable of simulating the hydrologic cycle, vegetation, multiple soil layers, groundwater, and stream flow. Improved data collection, data analysis, and linkages with water managers are also critical. See Chapter 8 for additional details.

Ecosystems on Land

Climate change interacts with ecosystem processes in a variety of ways, including direct and indirect influences on biodiversity, range and seasonality shifts in both plants and animals, and changes in productivity and element cycling processes, among others (NRC, 2008b). Research is needed to understand how rapidly species and ecosystems can or cannot adjust in response to climate-related changes and to understand the implications of such adjustments for ecosystem services. In addition, improved analyses of the interactions of climate-related variables—especially temperature, moisture, and CO 2 —with each other and in combination with other natural and human-caused changes (e.g., land use change, water diversions, and landscape-scale management choices) are needed, as such interactions are more relevant than any individual change acting alone. Climate change-related changes in fire, pest, and other disturbance regimes have also not been well assessed, especially at regional scales.

Research is needed to identify the ecosystems, ecosystem services, species, and people reliant on them that are most vulnerable. See Chapter 9 for additional details.

The Carbon Cycle

Changes in the carbon cycle and other biogeochemical cycles play a key role in modulating atmospheric and oceanic concentrations of CO 2 and other GHGs. Scientists have learned a great deal over the past 50 years about the exchange of carbon between the atmosphere, ocean, and biosphere and the effects of these changes on temperature and other climate change (CCSP, 2007a). However, key uncertainties remain. For example, we have an incomplete understanding of how interacting changes in temperature, precipitation, CO 2 , and nutrient availability will change the processing of carbon by land ecosystems and, thus, the amount of CO 2 emitted or taken up by ecosystems in the decades ahead (see Chapter 9 ). As noted in Chapters 2 and 6 , some of these feedbacks have the potential to dramatically accelerate global warming (e.g., the possibility that the current warming of permafrost in high-latitude regions will lead to melting of frozen soils and release huge amounts of CO 2 and CH 4 into the atmosphere). Changes in biogeochemical processes and biodiversity (including changes in reflectance characteristics due to land use changes) also have the potential to feed back on the climate system on a variety of time scales. Models and experiments that integrate knowledge about ecosystem processes, plant physiology, vegetation dynamics, and disturbances such as fire are needed, and such models should be linked with climate models.

As the ocean warms and ocean circulation patterns change, future changes in the ocean carbon cycle are also uncertain. For example, it is unclear whether the natural “biological pump,” which transports enormous amounts of carbon from the surface to the deep ocean, will be enhanced (Riebesell et al., 2007) or diminished (Mari, 2008) by ocean acidification and by changes in ocean circulation. Recent observational and modeling results suggest that the rate of ocean uptake of CO 2 may in fact be declining (Khatiwala et al., 2009). Because the oceans currently absorb over 25 percent of human-caused CO 2 emissions (see Chapter 6 ), changes in ocean CO 2 uptake could have profound climate implications. Results from the first generation of coupled carbon-climate models suggest that the capacity of the oceans and land surface to store carbon will decrease with global warming, which would represent a positive feedback on warming (Friedlingstein et al., 2006). Improved understanding and representation of the carbon cycle in Earth system models is thus a critical research need.

Interactions with Managed Systems and the Built Environment

Feedbacks and thresholds within human systems and human-managed systems, and between the climate system and human systems, are a closely related research need that spans both this research theme and several of the other research themes described in this chapter. For example, crops respond to multiple and interacting changes in temperature, moisture, CO 2 , ozone, and other factors, such as pests, diseases, and weeds. Experimental studies that evaluate the interactions of multiple factors are needed, especially in ecosystem-scale experiments and in environments where temperature is already close to optimal for crops. Of particular concern are water resources for agriculture, which are influenced at regional scales by competition from other uses as well as by changing frequency and intensity of rainfall. Assessments that evaluate crop response to climate-related variables should explicitly include interactions with other resources that are also affected by climate change. Designing effective agricultural strategies for limiting and adapting to climate change will require models and analyses that reflect these complicated interactions and that also incorporate the response of farmers and markets not only to production and prices but to policies and institutions (see Themes 3, 4, and 7 below).

In fisheries, sustainable yields require matching catch limits with the growth of the fishery. Climate variability already makes forecasting the growth of fish populations difficult, and future climate change will increase this uncertainty. There is considerable uncertainty about—and considerable risk associated with—the sensitivity of fish species to ocean acidification. Further studies of connections between climate and marine population dynamics are needed to enhance model frameworks for effective fisheries management. Most fisheries are also subject to other stressors, such as increasing levels of pollution, and the interactions of these other stresses should be analyzed and incorporated into models. Finally, all of these efforts should be linked to the analysis of effective institutions and policies for managing fisheries. (See Chapter 9 for additional details of links between climate change and agriculture and fisheries.)

The role of large built environments (including the transportation and energy systems associated with them) in shaping GHG emissions, aerosol levels, ground-level air pollution, and surface reflectivity need to be examined in a systematic and comparative way to develop a better understanding of their role in climate forcing. This should include attention to the extended effect of urban areas on other areas (such as deposition of urban emissions on ocean and rural land surfaces) as well as interactions between urban and regional heat islands and urban vegetation-evapotranspiration feedbacks to climate. Examination of both local and supralocal institutions, markets, and policies will be required to understand the various ways urban centers drive

climate change and to identify leverage points for intervention. (See Chapter 10 and Theme 4 later in this chapter for additional details.)

Finally, the identification and evaluation of unintended consequences of proposed or already-initiated strategies to limit the magnitude of climate change or adapt to its impacts will need to be evaluated as part of the overall evaluation of the efficacy of such approaches. This topic is explored in more detail later in the chapter, but it depends on a robust Earth system research enterprise.

THEME 2: CLIMATE-RELATED HUMAN BEHAVIORS AND INSTITUTIONS

Knowledge gained from research involving physical, chemical, and ecological processes has been critical for establishing that climate change poses sufficiently serious risks to justify careful consideration and evaluation of alternative responses. Emerging concerns about how best to respond to climate change also bring to the fore questions about human interactions with the climate system: how human activities drive climate change; how people understand, decide, and act in the climate context; how people are affected by climate change; and how human and social systems might respond. Thus, not surprisingly, many of the research needs that emerge from the detailed analyses in Part II focus on human interactions with climate change (see Table 4.2 ).

Human and social systems play a key role in both causing and responding to climate change. Therefore, in the context of climate change, a better understanding of human behavior and of the role of institutions and organizations is as fundamental to effective decision making as a better understanding of the climate system. Such knowledge underlies the ability to solve focused problems of climate response, such as deciding how to prioritize investments in protecting coastal communities from sea level rise, choosing policies to meet federal or state targets for reducing GHG emissions, and developing better ways to help citizens understand what science can and cannot tell them about potential climate-driven water supply changes. Such fundamental understanding provides the scientific base for making informed choices about climate responses in much the same way that a fundamental understanding of the physical climate system provides the scientific base for projecting the consequences of climate change.

Research investments in the behavioral and social sciences would expand this knowledge base, but such investments have been lacking in the past (e.g., NRC, 1990a, 1999a, 2003a, 2004b, 2005a, 2007f, 2009k). Barriers and institutional factors, both in research funding agencies and in academia more broadly, have also constrained progress in

TABLE 4.2 Examples of Research Needs on Human Behavior, Institutions, and Interactions with the Climate System (from Part II )

these areas (NRC, 1992a). This section outlines some of the key areas of fundamental research on human behavior and institutions that need to be developed to support better understanding of human interactions with the climate system and provide a scientific basis for informing more effective responses to climate change. It draws on several past analyses and assessments of research gaps and needs (NRC, 1992a, 1997a, 2001, 2002b, 2005a, 2009g, 2009k).

How People Understand Climate Change and Climate Risks

Climate change represents a special challenge for human comprehension (Fischhoff, 2007; Marx and Weber, 2009). To make decisions about climate change, a basic understanding of the processes of climate change and of how to evaluate the associated risks and potential benefits would be helpful for most audiences. However, despite several decades of exposure to information about climate change, such understanding is still widely lacking. A number of recent scientific analyses (Leiserowitz, 2007; Maibach et al., 2010; Moser and Tribbia, 2006, 2007; Wilson, 2002; see also NRC, 2010b) have identified some of the comprehension challenges people—including both the general public and trained professional in some fields—face in making decisions about how to respond to climate change.

First, because of the inherent uncertainties, projections of future climate change are often presented in terms of probabilities. Cognitive studies have established that humans have difficulty in processing probabilistic information, relying instead on cogni-

tive shortcuts that may deviate substantially from what would result from a careful analysis (e.g., Gigerenzer, 2008; Nichols, 1999).

Second, the time scale of climate change makes it difficult for most people to observe these changes in their daily lives. Climate change impacts are not yet dramatically noticeable in the most populated regions of the United States, and even rapid climate change takes place over decades, making it difficult for people to notice unless they look at historical records (Bostrom and Lashof, 2007; Moser, 2010). Scientists are only beginning to understand how recent and longer-term trends in weather influence perceptions of climate change (Hamilton and Keim, 2009; Joireman et al., in press). It is also difficult to unambiguously attribute individual weather events to climate change, and climate change is easily displaced by events people perceive as exceptional or simply as more important at any one time (Fischhoff, 2007; Marx and Weber, 2009; Marx et al., 2007; Weber, 2006).

Third, people commonly use analogies, associations, or simplified mental models to communicate or comprehend climate change, and these simplifications can result in significant misunderstandings. For example, climate change is sometimes confused with other types of pollution or with other global atmospheric problems (especially the stratospheric ozone “hole,” which some people erroneously think leads to global warming by allowing more solar radiation to enter the atmosphere) (Bostrom et al., 1994; Brechin, 2003; Kempton, 1991). Likewise, confusing the atmospheric lifetimes of GHGs with those of conventional air pollutants sometimes leads people to the erroneous inference that if emissions stop, the climate change problem will rapidly go away (Bostrom and Lashof, 2007; Morgan et al., 2001; Sterman, 2008; Sterman and Booth Sweeney, 2007).

Fourth, individual information processing is influenced by social processes, including the “frames” people apply when deciding how to assess new information, the trust they have in sources providing new information, and the views of those to whom they are connected in social networks (Durfee, 2006; Morgan et al., 2001; Moser and Dilling, 2007; Nisbet and Mooney, 2007; NRC, 2010b; Pidgeon et al., 2008). Information that is consistent with, rather than incongruent with, existing beliefs and values is more likely to be accepted, as is information from trusted sources (Bishr and Mantelas, 2008; Cash et al., 2003; Critchley, 2008; Cvetkovich and Loefstedt, 1999).

These challenges demonstrate the importance of understanding how people—acting as consumers, citizens, or members of organizations and social networks—comprehend climate change, and how these cognitive processes influence climate-relevant decisions and behaviors. Fundamental knowledge of risk perception provides a basis for this understanding (e.g., NRC, 1996; Pidgeon et al., 2003; Renn, 2008; Slovic,

2000), but this knowledge needs to be extended and elaborated (e.g., Lorenzoni et al., 2005; Lowe, 2006; O’Neill and Nicholson-Cole, 2009). A wide range of relevant theories and concepts have been advanced in various branches of psychology, sociology, and anthropology, as well as the political, pedagogic, and decision sciences (among others), but these have yet to be more fully synthesized and applied to climate change (Moser, 2010). Improved knowledge of how individuals, groups, networks, and organizations understand climate change and make decisions for responding to environmental changes can inform the design and evaluation of tools that better support decision making (NRC, 2009g).

Institutions, Organizations, and Networks

Individual decisions about climate change, important as they are, are not the only human decisions that shape the trajectory of climate change. Some of the most consequential climate-relevant decisions and actions are shaped by institutions—such as markets, government policies, and international treaties—and by public and private organizations.

Institutions shape incentives and the flow of information. They can also either encourage or help us avoid situations where individual actions lead to outcomes that are undesirable for both the individual and the group (sometimes called “the tragedy of the commons”). The problem of decision making for the collective good has been extensively studied around localized resources such as forests or fisheries (Chhatre and Agrawal, 2008; Dietz and Henry, 2008; McCay and Jentoft, 2009; Moran and Ostrom, 2005; NRC, 2002b; Ostrom, 2007, 2010; Ostrom and Nagendra, 2006). This body of research can provide important guidance for shaping effective responses to climate change at local and regional levels. It can also inform the design and implementation of national and international climate policies (see Chapter 17 ). However, improving our understanding of the flexibility and efficacy of current institutions and integrating this body of knowledge with existing work on international treaties, national policies, and other governance regimes remains a significant research challenge.

Many environmentally significant decisions are made by organizations, including governments, publicly traded companies, and private businesses. Research on environmental decision making by businesses covers a broad range of issues. These include responses to consumer and investor demand, management of supply chains and production networks, standard setting within sectors, decisions about technology and process, how environmental performance is assessed and reported, and the interplay between government policy and private-sector decision making (NRC, 2005a). Re-

sponses to climate change in the private sector have not been studied as extensively, but such research efforts might yield important insights.

A number of state and local governments have also been proactive in developing policies to adapt to climate change and reduce GHG emissions. To learn from these experiences, which is a key aspect of adaptive risk management, research is needed on both the effectiveness of these policies and the various factors that influenced their adoption (Brody et al., 2008; Teodoro, 2009; Zahran et al., 2008). In the United States, local policies are almost always embedded in state policies, which in turn are embedded in national policies, raising issues of multilevel governance—another emerging research area (see Chapter 17 ).

Finally, it is clear that public policy is shaped not only by the formal organizations of government, but also by policy networks that include government, the private sector, and the public. An emerging challenge is to understand how these networks influence policy and how they transmit and learn from new information (Bulkeley, 2005; Henry, 2009).

Environmentally Significant Consumption

Decisions about consumption at the individual, household, community, business, and national levels have a profound effect on GHG emissions. For example, voluntary consumer choices to increase the efficiency of household energy use could reduce total U.S. GHG emissions by over 7 percent if supportive policies were in place (Dietz et al., 2009b). Consumer choices also influence important aspects of vulnerability and adaptation; for example, increasing demand for meat in human diets places stresses on the global food system as well as on the environment (Fiala, 2008; Stehfest et al., 2009), and demand for beachfront homes increases vulnerability and shapes adaptation options related to sea level rise, storm surges, and other coastal impacts.

Considerable research on consumption decision making has been carried out in economics, psychology, sociology, anthropology, and geography (NRC, 1997a, 2005a), but much of this research has been conducted in isolation. For example, economic analyses often take preferences as given. Studies in psychology, sociology, and anthropology, on the other hand, focus on the social influences on preferences but often fail to account for economic processes. Decisions based on knowledge from multiple disciplines are thus much more likely to be effective than decisions that rely on the perspective of a single discipline, and advances in the understanding of climate and related environmental decision making are likely to require collaboration across multiple social science disciplines (NRC, 1997a, 2002b). This is an area of research where

theories and methodologies are in place but progress has been slowed by a lack of support for experiments and large-scale data collection efforts that integrate across disciplines.

Human Drivers of Climate Change

Ultimately, it is desirable to understand how choices, and the factors that shape them, lead to specific environmental outcomes (Dietz et al., 2009c; Vayda, 1988). A variety of hypotheses have been offered and tested about the key societal factors that shape environmental change—what are often called the drivers of change (NRC, 1992a). Growth in population and consumption, technological change, land and resource use, and the social, institutional, and cultural factors shaping the behavior of individuals and organizations have all been proposed as critical drivers, and some empirical work has elucidated the influence of each of them (NRC, 1997b, 1999c, 2005a, 2008b). However, much of this research has focused on only one or a few factors at a time and has used highly aggregated data (Dietz et al., 2009a). To understand the many human drivers of climate change as a basis for better-informed decision making, it will be necessary to develop and test integrative models that examine multiple driving forces together, examine how they interact with each other at different scales of human activity and over time, and consider how their effects vary across different contexts.

To evaluate the effectiveness of policies or other actions designed to limit the magnitude of climate change, increased understanding is needed about both the elasticity of climate drivers—the extent to which changes in drivers produce changes in climate impacts—and the plasticity of drivers, or the ease with which the driver can be changed by policy interventions (York et al., 2002). For example, analyses of the effects of population growth on GHG emissions suggest an elasticity of about 1 to 1.5; that is, for every 1 percent increase in human population, there is roughly a 1 to 1.5 percent increase in environmental impact (Clark et al., 2010; Dietz et al., 2007; Jorgenson, 2007, 2009; Shi, 2003; York et al., 2003). On the other hand, recent research suggests that environmental impact is more directly related to the number of households than to the number of people (Cole and Neumayer, 2004; Liu et al., 2003). Thus, a shift to smaller average household size could offset or even overwhelm the reduction in climate drivers resulting from reduced population growth. Similarly, it has been argued that increasing affluence leads at first to increased environmental impact but, once a threshold level of affluence has been reached, environmental impact declines (Grossman and Krueger, 1995; Selden and Song, 1994). In the case of GHG emissions, however, emissions apparently continue to increase with increasing affluence (Carson,

2010; Cavlovic et al., 2000; Dasgupta et al., 2002; Dietz et al., 2007; Stern, 2004), suggesting that economic growth alone will not reduce emissions.

Processes that Induce or Constrain Innovation

The adoption of new technology is yet another area in which institutions, organizations, and networks have an important influence on decision making. New and improved technologies will be needed to meet the challenges of limiting climate change and adapting to its impacts (NRC, 2010a,c). However, the mere existence of a new technology with desirable properties is not sufficient to ensure its use. For example, individuals and organizations are currently far less energy efficient than is technologically feasible or economically optimal (Jaffe and Stavins, 1994; Weber, 2009). There are also many examples of differential use of or opposition to new technologies among individuals, communities, and even nations. Although adoption of and resistance to innovation, especially in new technologies, have been extensively studied (e.g., Stern et al., 2009), much of this research has been technology specific. A validated theoretical framework has not yet been developed for analyses of adoption issues related to new technologies to reduce GHG emissions or enhance resilience of particular systems, or of proposals to intentionally modify the climate system (see Chapter 15 ). One lesson from the existing literature is worth highlighting—the earlier in the process of technological development that social acceptance is considered, the more likely it is that technologies will be developed that will actually be used (Rosa and Clark, 1999). Another is that, beyond the character of the innovation itself, it is essential to understand the role of the decision and institutional environment in fostering or constraining its adoption (Lemos, 2008; Rayner et al., 2005). Many of these concepts and research needs also emerge from the next two themes in this chapter.

THEME 3: VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ANALYSES OF COUPLED HUMAN-ENVIRONMENT SYSTEMS

Not all people, activities, environments, and places are equally vulnerable 1 or resilient to the impacts of climate change. Identification of differences in vulnerability across space and time is both a pivotal research issue and a critical way in which scientific research can provide input to decision makers as they make plans to adapt to climate

change. Indeed, the companion report Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change (NRC, 2010a) identifies vulnerability assessments as a key first step in many if not all adaptation-related decisions and actions. An example of the use of vulnerability assessments in the context of climate-related decision making in the coastal zone can be found in Box 4.2 .

In addition to merely identifying and characterizing vulnerabilities, scientific research can help identify and assess actions that could be taken to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience and adaptive capacity in human and environmental systems. Combined vulnerability and adaptation analyses can, for example, identify “no-regrets” actions that could be taken at little or no cost and would be beneficial regardless of

how climate change unfolds. They can also help to identify sectors, regions, resources, and populations that are particularly vulnerable to changes in climate considered in the context of changes in related human and environmental systems. Finally, scientific research can assist adaptation planning by helping to develop, assess, and improve actions that are taken to adapt, and by identifying barriers to adaptation and options to overcome those barriers. Indeed, many of the chapters in Part II of the report identified vulnerability and adaptation analyses, developing the scientific capacity to perform such analyses, and developing and improving adaptation options as key research needs. Table 4.3 lists some of these needs.

TABLE 4.3 Examples of Research Needs Related to Vulnerability and Adaptation (from Part II )

Characteristics of Vulnerability and Adaptation Analyses

Vulnerability and adaptation analyses can be performed in many contexts and have a wide range of uses. In general, vulnerability analyses assess exposure to and impacts from a disturbance, as well as sensitivity to these impacts and the capacity to reduce or adapt to the negative consequences of the disturbance. These analyses can then be used by decision makers to help decide where, how much, and in what ways to intervene in human or environmental systems to reduce vulnerability, enhance resilience, or improve efficient resource management (Eakin et al., 2009; Turner, 2009). In the context of climate change, vulnerability analyses seek to evaluate and estimate the harm to populations, ecosystems, and resources that might result from changes in climate, and to provide useful information for decision makers seeking to deal with these changes (Füssel and Klein, 2006; Kates et al., 2001; Kelly and Adger, 2000).

A major lesson learned from conventional vulnerability analyses is that they often miss the mark if they focus on a single system or set of interactions—for example, a certain population or ecosystem in isolation—rather than considering the larger system in which people and ecosystems are embedded (O’Brien and Leichenko, 2000; Turner et al., 2003a). The Hurricane Katrina disaster ( Box 4.3 ) illustrates the importance of interactions among the human and environmental components in influencing vulnerability: land and water management decisions interacted with environmental, social,

and economic dynamics to make the people and ecosystems of New Orleans and surrounding areas particularly vulnerable to storm surges, with tragic results.

As recognition has grown that vulnerability should be assessed in a wider context, attention has increasingly turned to integrated approaches focused on coupled human-environment systems. Such analyses consider both the natural characteristics and the human and social characteristics of a system, evaluate the consequences of climate change and other stresses acting on the integrated system, and explore the potential actions that could be taken to reduce the negative impacts of these consequences, including the trade-offs among efforts to reduce vulnerability, enhance resilience, or improve adaptive capacity (see Figure 4.1 ) (Eakin and Luers, 2006; Kasperson et al., 2009; Turner et al., 2003a). Integrated approaches that allow the evaluation of the causal structure of vulnerabilities (i.e., the long-term drivers and more immediate causes of differential exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) can help identify the resources and barriers that can aid or constrain implementation of adaptation options, including

FIGURE 4.1 A framework for analyzing vulnerabilities, focusing on a coupled human-environment system in which vulnerability and response depend on both socioeconomic and human capital as well as natural resources and changes in the environment. From left to right, the figure includes the stresses on the coupled system, the degree to which those stresses are felt by the system, and the conditions that shape the ability of the system to adapt. SOURCE: Kasperson et al. (2009), adapted from Turner et al. (2003a).

ecological, cognitive, social, cultural, political, economic, legal, institutional, and infrastructural hurdles (e.g., Adger et al., 2009a,b). Integrated vulnerability analyses also allow improved understanding and identification of areas in which climate change works in combination with other disturbances or decisions (e.g., land-management practices) to increase or decrease vulnerability (Cutter et al., 2000; Luers et al., 2003; Turner et al., 2003b).

Challenges of Analyzing Vulnerability

Because of the complexity of interactions within and the variance among coupled human-environment systems, integrated vulnerability and adaptation analyses often rely

on place-based (local and regional) assessments for decision making (e.g., Cutter et al., 2000; O’Brien et al., 2004; Turner et al., 2003b; Watson et al., 1997). However, with few notable exceptions (e.g., Clark et al., 1998; Cutter et al., 2000), there is little empirical research on the vulnerability of places, communities, economies, and ecological systems in the United States to climate change, nor is there much empirically grounded understanding of the range of adaptation options and associated constraints (Moser, 2009a; NRC, 2010a).

The development of common metrics and frameworks for vulnerability and adaptation assessments is needed to assist cross-sectoral and interregional comparison and learning. While some research has focused on useful outputs for decision making and adaptation planning (Luers et al., 2003; Moss et al., 2002; Polsky et al., 2007;

Schmidtlein et al., 2008), developing comparative metrics has been challenging due to a lack of baseline data and insufficient monitoring; difficulty in measuring critical and dynamic social, cultural, and environmental variables across scales and regions; limitations in accounting for the indirect impacts of adaptation measures; and uncertainties regarding changes in climate variability, especially changes in the frequency or severity of extreme events, which often dominate vulnerability (Eakin and Luers, 2006; NRC, 2010a; O’Brien et al., 2004).

Assessing adaptive capacity has also been difficult because of its latent character; that is, although capacity can be characterized, it can only be “measured” after it has been realized or mobilized. Hence, adaptive capacity can often only be assessed based on assumptions about different factors that might facilitate or constrain response and action (Eakin and Luers, 2006; Engle and Lemos, 2010) or through the use of model projections. Progress here will rely on improved understanding of human behavior relevant to adaptation; institutional barriers to adaptation; political and social acceptability of adaptation options; their economic implications; and technological, infrastructure, and policy challenges involved in making certain adaptations.

THEME 4: RESEARCH TO SUPPORT STRATEGIES FOR LIMITING CLIMATE CHANGE

Decisions about how to limit the magnitude of climate change, by how much, and by when demand input from research activities that span the physical, biological, and social science disciplines as well as engineering and public health. In addition to assessing the feasibility, costs, and potential consequences of different options and objectives, research is critical for developing new and improving existing technologies, policies, goals, and strategies for reducing GHG emissions. Scientific research, monitoring, and assessment activities can also assist in the ongoing evaluation of the effectiveness and unintended consequences of different actions or set of actions as they are taken—which is critical for supporting adaptive risk management and iterative decision making (see Box 3.1 ). This section highlights some pressing research needs related to efforts to limit the magnitude of future climate change.

Commonly discussed strategies for limiting climate change (see Figure 4.2 ) include reducing energy consumption, for instance by improving energy efficiency or by reducing demand for energy-intensive goods and services; reducing emissions of GHGs from energy production and use, industrial processes, agriculture, or other human activities; capturing CO 2 from power plants and industrial processes, or directly from the atmosphere, and sequestering it in geological formations; and increasing CO 2

FIGURE 4.2 The chain of factors that determine how much CO 2 accumulates in the atmosphere. The blue boxes represent factors that can potentially be influenced to affect the outcomes in the purple circles. SOURCE: NRC (2010c).

uptake by the oceans and land surface. There is also increasing interest in solar radiation management and other geoengineering approaches (see Chapters 9 , 14 , and 15 ). While much is known about some of these strategies, others are not well understood, and there are many scientific research needs related to the development, improvement, implementation, and evaluation of virtually all technologies, policies, and other approaches for limiting climate change.

Setting goals for limiting the magnitude of climate change involves ethical and value questions that cannot be answered by scientific analysis. However, scientific research can help inform such efforts by providing information about the feasibility and potential implications of specific goals. The companion report Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change (NRC, 2010c) suggests that the U.S. goal be framed in terms of a cumulative budget for GHG emissions over a set time period. The report does not recommend a specific budget goal, but it examines a “representative” budget in the range of 170 to 200 Gt CO 2 -eq 2 for the period 2012 to 2050. 3 As the Limiting report notes, reaching a goal in this range will be easier and less costly overall if actions to limit GHG emissions are undertaken sooner rather than later. It will also require pursuing multiple emissions-reduction strategies across a range of sectors, as well as continued research and development aimed at creating new emissions-reduction opportunities. Finally, to support adaptive risk management and iterative decision making with re-

spect to emissions reductions or other climate goals, scientific research will be needed to monitor and improve implementation approaches and to evaluate the potential trade-offs, co-benefits, and unintended consequences of different strategies, as well as the interaction of multiple approaches working in concert. These and other examples of research needs for supporting actions to limit climate change are listed in Table 4.4 .

The challenge of limiting climate change also engages many of the other research themes identified in this chapter. For example, understanding and comparing the full effects of various energy technologies or climate policies (including their comparative benefits, costs, risks, and distributional effects) typically requires an integration of climate models with energy and economic models ( Theme 7 ), which in turn are based on fundamental understanding of the climate system ( Theme 1 ) and human systems

TABLE 4.4 Examples of Research Needs Related to Limiting the Magnitude of Climate Change (from Part II )

( Theme 2 ), as well as the observations ( Theme 6 ) that underpin such understanding. Similarly, setting and evaluating goals and policies for limiting the magnitude of future climate change involves decision-making processes at a variety of scales that would benefit from decision-support tools that aid in handling uncertainty and understanding complex value trade-offs ( Theme 5 ). These decisions would similarly benefit from integrated analyses or linked “end-to-end” models ( Theme 7 ) of how policies and other actions influence emissions, how the climate system and related environmental systems will respond to these changes in emissions, and how human and natural systems will be affected by all of these changes—all of which again depend critically on observations ( Theme 6 ). Thus, while the following subsections describe a number of key research needs related to limiting the magnitude of future climate change, progress in many other research areas will also be needed.

Developing New Technologies

Efforts to reduce transportation- and energy-related GHG emissions focus on reducing total energy demand (through, for example, conservation or changes in consumption patterns); improving energy efficiency; reducing the GHG intensity of the energy supply (by using energy sources that emit fewer or no GHGs); and direct capture and sequestration of CO 2 during or after the combustion of fossil fuels (see Figure 4.2 and Chapters 13 and 14 ). The strategy of reducing demand is discussed earlier (under Theme 2 : Human Behavior and Institutions). Technology development is directed primarily toward the other three strategies: efficiency, lower carbon intensity, and carbon capture and storage.

Numerous scientific and engineering disciplines contribute to the development and implementation of energy technology options: the physical, biological, and engineering sciences, for example, are all critical for the development of new technologies, while the social sciences play a key role in both technology development and technology deployment and adoption. In many cases, these diverse disciplines need to work together to evaluate, improve, and expand energy technology options. A coordinated strategy for promoting and integrating energy-related research is needed to ensure the most efficient use of investments among these disciplines and activities.

A number of reports (e.g., Technology and Transformation [NRC, 2009d] and the Strategic Plan of the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program [DOE, 2009c]) have suggested that priority areas for strategic investment in the energy sector should include energy end use and infrastructure, sustainable energy supply, carbon sequestration, and reduction of non-CO 2 GHG emissions. These are discussed in Chapter 14 . In the transpor-

tation sector, key research and development topics include vehicle efficiency, vehicles that run on electricity or non-petroleum-based transportation fuels, and technologies and policies that could reduce travel demand (including, for example, communication technologies like video conferencing). Chapter 13 includes additional discussion on these topics.

Technology developments in the energy and transportation sector are interrelated. For example, widespread adoption of batteries and fuel cells would switch the main source of transportation energy from petroleum to electricity, but this switch will only result in significant GHG emissions reductions if the electricity sector can provide low- and no-GHG electricity on a large scale. This and other codependencies between the energy and transportation sectors underscore the need for an integrated, holistic national approach to limit the magnitude of future climate change as well as related research investments. Widespread adoption of new transportation or energy technologies would also demand significant restructuring of the nation’s existing transportation and energy infrastructure, and scientific and engineering research will play an important role in optimizing that design.

As described in Chapter 12 , urban design presents additional opportunities for limiting climate change. The design of urban developments can, for example, reduce the GHG “footprints” of buildings and the level of demand they create for motorized travel. However, the success of new urban and building designs will depend on better understanding of how technology design, social and economic considerations, and attractiveness to potential occupants can be brought together in the cultural contexts where the developments will occur. Research is also needed to consider the implication of new designs for human vulnerability to climate change as well as other environmental changes.

Finally, as discussed in Chapter 10 , there are a number of potential options for reducing GHG emissions from the agricultural, fisheries, and aquaculture sectors through new technologies or management strategies. Development of new fertilizers and fertilizer management strategies that reduce emissions of N 2 O is one area of interest—one that may also yield benefits in terms of agricultural contributions to other forms of pollution. Reducing CH 4 emissions through changes in rice technologies or ruminant feed technologies are two additional areas of active research. Further research is needed in these and other areas, and also on the effectiveness, costs and benefits, and perceptions of farmers, fish stock managers, and consumers when considering implementation of new technologies in these sectors.

Facilitating Adoption of Technologies

There are a number of barriers to the adoption of technologies that could potentially reduce GHG emissions. For example, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently suspended Energy Star certification for programmable thermostats because it was unable to show that they save energy in actual use (EPA, 2009a). Similar difficulties could be in store for “smart meters,” which are promoted as devices that will allow households to manage energy use to save money and reduce emissions, but which are often designed mainly for the information needs of utility companies rather than consumers. Research on improved designs of these and other types of monitoring and control equipment could help reduce energy use by helping users operate homes, motor vehicles, and commercial and industrial facilities more efficiently.

There are similar opportunities for improved energy efficiency through behavioral change. For example, U.S. households could significantly reduce their GHG emissions (and save money) by adopting more energy-efficient driving behaviors and by properly maintaining automobiles and home heating and cooling systems (Dietz et al., 2009b). Research on behavioral change suggests that a good portion of this potential could actually be achieved, but further analysis is needed to develop and assess specific strategies, approaches, and incentives.

In general, barriers to technology adoption have received only limited research attention (e.g., Gardner and Stern, 1996; NRC, 2005a; Pidgeon et al., 2003). Such research can identify barriers to faster adoption of technologies and develop and test ways to overcome these barriers through, for example, better technological design, policies for facilitating adoption, and practices for addressing public concerns. This research can also develop more realistic estimates of technology penetration rates given existing barriers and assess the perceived social and environmental consequences of technology use, some of which constitute important barriers to or justifications for adoption. Finally, the gap between technological potential and what is typically accomplished might be reduced by integrating knowledge from focused, problem-solving research on adoption of new technologies and practices (e.g., Stern et al., 2009, in press).

Institutions and Decision Making

The 20th century saw immense social and cultural changes, many of which—such as changes in living patterns and automobile use—have had major implications for climate change. Many societal and cultural changes can be traced to the confluence of individual and organizational decision making, which is shaped by institutions that reward some actions and sanction others, and by technologies. New institutions, such

as GHG emissions trading systems, voluntary certification systems for energy-efficient building design, bilateral international agreements for emissions reduction, agreements on emissions monitoring, and carbon offset markets, are critical components of most of the plans that have been proposed to limit human GHG emissions during the next few decades (see Theme 2 above and also the companion reports Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change [NRC, 2010c] and Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change [NRC, 2010b]). Many such mechanisms are already in operation, and these constitute natural experiments, but the scientific base for evaluating these experiments and designing effective institutions is limited (see, e.g., Ostrom, 2010; Prakash and Potoski, 2006; Tietenberg, 2002). Institutional design would likely be enhanced by more systematic research to evaluate past and current efforts, compare different institutional approaches for reaching the same goals, and develop and pilot-test new institutional options.

A large number of individual, community, and organizational decisions have a substantial effect on GHG emissions and land use change as well as on vulnerability to climate change. Many of these decisions are not currently made with much or any consideration of climate change. For example, individual and household food choices, the layout of communities, and the design of supply chains all have effects on climate. Understanding social and cultural changes is important for projecting future climate change, and, in some cases, these changes may provide substantial leverage points for reducing climate change. Thus, enhanced understanding of the complex interplay of social, cultural, and technological change is critical to any strategy for limiting future climate change.

Geoengineering Approaches

Available evidence suggests that avoiding serious consequences from climate change poses major technological and policy challenges. If new technologies and institutions are insufficient to achieve critical emissions-reduction targets, or if a “climate emergency” emerges, decision makers may consider proposals to manage Earth’s climate directly. Such efforts, often referred to as geoengineering approaches, encompass two very different categories of approaches: carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere, and solar radiation management (SRM). Two proposals for CDR—iron fertilization in the ocean and direct air capture—are discussed briefly in Chapters 9 and 14 , respectively. As noted in Chapter 2 and discussed in greater detail in Chapter 15 , little is currently known about the efficacy or potential unintended consequences of SRM approaches, particularly how to approach difficult ethical and governance questions. Therefore, research is needed to better understand the feasibility of different geoengi-

neering approaches; the potential consequences (intended and unintended) of such approaches on different human and environmental systems; and the related physical, ecological, technical, social, and ethical issues, including research that could inform societal debates about what would constitute a “climate emergency” and on governance systems that could facilitate whether, when, and how to intentionally intervene in the climate system. It is important that such research not distract or take away from other important research areas, including research on understanding the climate system and research on “conventional” strategies for limiting the magnitude of climate change and adapting to its impacts.

THEME 5: EFFECTIVE INFORMATION AND DECISION-SUPPORT SYSTEMS

Global climate changes are taking place within a larger context of vast and ongoing social and environmental changes. These include the globalization of markets and communication, continued growth in human population, land use change, resource degradation, and biodiversity loss, as well as persistent armed conflict, poverty, and hunger. There are also ongoing changes in cultural, governance, and economic conditions, as well as in technologies, all of which have substantial implications for human well-being. Thus, decision makers in the United States and around the world need to balance climate-related choices and goals with other social, economic, and environmental objectives (Burger et al., 2009; Lindseth, 2004; Schreurs, 2008), as well as issues of fairness and justice (Page, 2008; Roberts and Parks, 2007; Vanderheiden, 2008) and questions of risk (Bulkeley, 2001; Jacques, 2006; Lorenzoni and Pidgeon, 2006; Lubell et al., 2007; Vogler and Bretherton, 2006), all while taking account of a changing context for those decisions. Accordingly, in addition to climate and climate-related information, decision makers need information about the current state of human systems and their environment, as well as an appreciation of the plausible future outcomes and net effects that may result from their policy decisions. They also need to consider how their decisions and actions could interact with other environmental and economic policy goals, both in and outside their areas of responsibility.

The research needs highlighted in this report are intended to both improve fundamental understanding of and support effective decision making about climate change. As explored in the companion report Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change (NRC, 2010b), there is still much to be learned about the best ways of deploying science to support decision making. Indeed, available research suggests that, all too often, scientists’ efforts to provide information are of limited practical value because effective decision-support systems are lacking (NRC, 2009g). Scientific research on decision-support models, processes, and tools can help improve these systems.

TABLE 4.5 Examples of Scientific Research Needs Pertaining to Decision Support in the Context of Climate Change (from Part II )

Effective decision support also requires interactive processes involving both scientists and decision makers. Such processes can inform decision makers about anticipated changes in climate, help scientists understand key decision-making needs, and work to build mutual understanding, trust, and cooperation—for example, in the design of decision tools and processes that make sense both scientifically and in the actual decision-making context. Table 4.5 provides a list of the related scientific research needs that emerge from the chapters in Part II of the report.

Decision Processes

Even when viable technologies or actions that could be effective in limiting the magnitude or adapting to the impacts of climate change exist, and appropriate institutions and policies to facilitate their implementation or adoption are in place (see Themes 2 , 3 , and 4 ), success can depend strongly on decision-making processes in populations or organizations (NRC, 2005a, 2008h). One of the major contributions the social sciences can make to advancing the science of climate change is in the understanding, development, assessment, and improvement of these decision-making processes. Scientific research can, for example, help identify the information that decision makers need, devise effective and broadly acceptable decision-making processes and decision-support mechanisms, and enhance learning from experience. Specific research agendas for the science of decision support are available in a number of other reports (NRC, 2009g, 2010b), and other sections of this chapter describe some of the tools that have been or could be developed to inform or assist decision makers in their deliberations

(for example, vulnerability and adaptation analyses of coupled human environmental systems, which are described in Theme 3 ).

One of the most important and well-studied approaches to decision making is deliberation with analysis (also called analytic deliberation or linked analysis and deliberation). Deliberation with analysis is an iterative process that begins with the many participants in a decision working together to define a decision problem and then to identify (1) options to consider and (2) outcomes and criteria that are relevant for evaluating those options. Typically, participants work with experts to generate and interpret decision-relevant information and then revisit the objectives and choices based on that information. This model was developed in the broad context of environmental risks (NRC, 1996) and has been elaborated in the context of climate-related decision making (NRC, 1999b, 2009g)

The deliberation with analysis approach allows repeated structured interactions among the public, decision makers, and scientists that can help the scientific community understand the information needs of and uses by decision makers, and appreciate the opportunities and constraints of the institutional, material, and organizational contexts under which stakeholders make decisions (Lemos, 2008; Rayner et al., 2005; Tribbia and Moser, 2008). It also helps decision makers and other stakeholders better understand and trust the science being produced. While research on deliberation with analysis has provided a general framework that has proven effective in local and regional issues concerning ecosystem, watershed, and natural resource management, more research is needed to determine how this approach might be employed for national policy decisions or international decision making around climate change (NRC, 1996, 2005a, 2007a, 2008h).

Effective Decision-Support Systems

A decision-support system includes the individuals, organizations, networks, and institutions that develop decision-relevant knowledge, as well as the mechanisms to share and disseminate that knowledge and related products and services (NRC, 2009g). Agricultural or marine extension services, with all their strengths and weaknesses, are an important historical example of a decision-support system that has helped make scientific knowledge relevant to and available for practical decision making in the context of specific goals. The recent report Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate (NRC, 2009g) identified a set of basic principles of effective decision support that are applicable to the climate change arena: “(1) begin with users’ needs; (2) give priority to process over products; (3) link information producers and users; (4) build connec-

tions across disciplines and organizations; (5) seek institutional stability; and (6) design processes for learning.”

Effective decision-support systems work to both guide research toward decision relevance and link scientific information with potential users. Such systems will thus play an important role in improving the linkages between climate science and decision making called for both in this report and in many previous ones (e.g., Cash et al., 2003; NRC, 1990a, 1999b, 2009g). Research on the use of seasonal climate forecasts exemplifies current understanding of decision-support systems (see Box 4.4 ).

The basic principles of effective decision support are reasonably well known (see, e.g.,

NRC, 2009g). However, they need to be applied differently in different places, with different decision makers, and in different decision contexts. Determining how to apply these basic principles is at the core of the science of decision support—the science needed for designing information products, knowledge networks, and institutions that can turn good information into good decision support (NRC, 2009g). The base in fundamental science for designing more effective decision-support systems lies in the decision sciences and related fields of scholarship, including cognitive science, communications research, and the full array of traditional social and behavioral science disciplines.

Expanded research on decision support would enhance virtually all the other research called for in this report by improving the design and function of systems that seek to make climate science findings useful in adaptive management of the risks of climate change. The main research needs in this area are discussed in Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate (NRC, 2009g), Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change (NRC, 2010b), and several other studies (e.g., NRC, 2005a, 2008g). A recent review of research needs for improved environmental decision making (NRC, 2005a) emphasized the need for research to identify the kinds of decision-support activities and products that are most effective for various purposes and audiences. The report recommended studies focused on assessing decision quality, exploring decision makers’ evaluations of decision processes and outcomes, and improving formal tools for decision support.

The key research needs for the science of decision support fall into the following five areas (NRC, 2009g):

Information needs. Research is needed to identify the kinds of information that would add greatest value for climate-related decision making and to understand information needs as seen by decision makers.

Communicating risk and uncertainty. People commonly have difficulty making good sense and use of information that is probabilistic and uncertain. Research on how people understand uncertain information about risks and on better ways to provide it can improve decision-support processes and products.

Decision-support processes. Research is needed on processes for providing decision support, including the operation of networks and intermediaries between the producers and users of information for decision support. This research should include attention to the most effective channels and organizational structures to use for delivering information for decision support; the ways such information can be made to fit into individual, organizational, and institutional decision routines; the factors that determine whether potentially useful information is actually used; and ways to overcome barriers to the use of decision-relevant information.

Decision-support products. Research is needed to design and apply decision tools, data analysis platforms, reports, and other products that convey user-relevant information in ways that enhance users’ understanding and decision quality. These products may include models and simulations, mapping and visualization products, websites, and applications of techniques for structuring decisions, such as cost-benefit analysis, multiattribute decision analysis, and scenario analysis.

Decision-support “experiments.” Efforts to provide decision support for various decisions and decision makers are already under way in many cities, counties, and regions. These efforts can be treated as a massive national experiment that can, if data are carefully collected, be analyzed to learn which strategies are attractive, which ones work, why they work, and under what conditions. Research on these experiments can build knowledge about how information of various kinds, delivered in various formats, is used in real-world settings; how knowledge is transferred across communities and sectors; and many other aspects of decision-support processes.

THEME 6: INTEGRATED CLIMATE OBSERVING SYSTEMS

Nearly all of the research called for in this report either requires or would be considerably improved by a comprehensive, coordinated, and continuing set of observations—physical, biological, and social—about climate change, its impacts, and the consequences (both intended and unintended) of efforts to limit its magnitude or adapt to its impacts ( Table 4.6 ). Extensive, robust, and well-calibrated observing systems would support the research that underpins the scientific understanding of how and why climate is changing, provide information about the efficacy of actions and strategies taken to limit or adapt to climate change, and enable the routine dissemination of climate and climate-related information and products to decision makers. Unfortunately, many of the needed observational assets are either underdeveloped or in decline. In addition, a variety of institutional factors—such as distributed responsibility across many different entities—complicate the development of a robust and integrated climate observing system.

The breadth of information needed to support climate-related decision making implies an observational strategy that includes both remotely sensed and in situ observations and that provides information about changes across a broad range of natural and human systems. To be useful, these observations must be

Sustained for decades to separate long-term trends from short-term variability;

Well calibrated and consistent through time to ensure that observed changes are real;

Spatially extensive to account for variability across scales and to ensure that assessments of change are not overly influenced by local phenomena;

Supported by a robust data management infrastructure that supports effective data archiving, accesses, and stewardship; and

Sustained by defined roles and responsibilities across the federal government as well as state and local governments, the research community, private businesses, and the international community.

Space-Based Platforms

Our understanding of the climate system and other important human and environmental systems has benefitted significantly through the use of satellite observations over the past 30 years (NRC, 2008c). For example, data from the Earth Observing System (EOS) series of satellites deployed in the late 1990s and early 2000s provide critical input into process and climate models that have provided key insights into Artic sea ice decline, sea level rise, changes in freshwater systems, ozone changes over Antarctica, changes in solar activity, ocean ecoystem change, and changes in land use, to name just a few. Box 4.5 provides an example of a key satellite-based measurement that has promoted enhanced understanding of the physical climate system and how it is changing over time.

TABLE 4.6 Examples of Science Needs Related to Observations and Observing Systems (see Part II for additional details)

FIGURE 4.3 Number of U.S. space-based Earth observation missions (left) and instruments (right) in the current decade. An emphasis on climate and weather is evident, as is a decline in the number of missions near the end of the decade. For the period from 2007 to 2010, missions were generally assumed to operate for 4 years past their nominal lifetimes. SOURCE: NRC (2007c), based on information from NASA and NOAA websites for mission durations.

Over the past decade, a wide range of problems have plagued the maintenance and development of environmental satellites. In response to a request from several federal agencies, the NRC conducted a “decadal survey” in 2004-2006 to generate consensus recommendations from the Earth and environmental science and applications communities regarding a systems approach to space-based (and ancillary) observations. The interim report of the decadal survey (NRC, 2005b) described the national system of environmental satellites as being “at risk of collapse.” That judgment was based on a sharp decline in funding for Earth observation missions and the consequent cancellation, descoping, and delay of a number of critical satellite missions and instruments. An additional concern expressed in the interim report was attracting and training scientists and engineers and providing opportunities for them to exploit new technology and apply new theoretical understanding in the pursuit of both discovery science and high-priority societal applications.

These concerns only increased in the 2 years following the publication of the interim report as additional missions and sensors were cancelled. The final decadal survey report (NRC, 2007c) presented near- and longer-term recommendations to address these troubling trends. The report outlined near-term actions meant to stem the tide of capability deterioration and continue critical data records, as well as forward-looking recommendations to establish a balanced Earth observation program designed to directly address the most urgent societal challenges (see Figure 4.3 ). The final report also noted the lack of clear agency responsibility for sustained research programs and

for transitioning proof-of-concept measurements into sustained measurement systems (see Box 4.6 ).

The National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) was created in 1994 to merge various military and civil meteorological and environmental monitoring programs. Unfortunately, by 2005, cost overruns triggered a mandatory

review of the NPOESS program, resulting in reductions in the number of planned satellite acquisitions as well as reductions in the instruments carried on each platform—with climate-related sensors suffering the majority of the cuts, in part because of conflicting agency priorities. More recently, there have been several efforts to restore some of the lost sensor capabilities. However, these short-term, stop-gap measures are only designed to preserve the most critical long-term records and do not represent a long-term, comprehensive strategy to observe critical climate and climate-related processes and trends from space (NRC, 2008d). The President’s 2011 budget seeks to restructure the NPOESS program, but details were not available in time to inform the development of this report. An additional blow to the nation’s Earth observing program was the July 2009 launch failure of NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO), which was expected to provide high-resolution satellite-based measurements of CO 2 and other GHGs (NRC, 2009h). The President’s 2011 budget request for NASA includes $170 million for a reflight of the OCO mission, which will be called OCO-2.

Given the global scope of satellite observations and the expense of designing, launching, and operating satellites, the decadal survey (NRC, 2007c) and other reviews call for international coordination as a key component of the nation’s satellite observation strategy. Collaborations with other nations not only save scarce resources for all partners, they also promote scientific collaboration and sharing of ideas among the international scientific community. However, international collaborations come at a cost. Any time partners are involved, control must be shared, and the success of the mission depends critically on the performance of all partners. A successful collaboration also requires assurance that data will be shared and that U.S. scientists are full partners on teams that ensure adequate prelaunch instrument characterization and postlaunch instrument calibration and validation.

Finally, there is a wealth of classified data that have been and continue to be collected by the intelligence community that could potentially provide useful information on understanding the nature and impacts of climate change. Declassified data from the 1960s have already been used for this purpose with great success (Csatho et al., 1999; Joughin et al., 2002; Stokes et al., 2006). More recently, a large amount of sea ice imagery was released for scientific study (NRC, 2009l). Given the importance of the climate change challenge, and the recent struggles of the civilian satellite program, the climate science community should take advantage of such data sets to the extent that they can be made available for scientific purposes.

Ground-Based and In Situ Observations of the Earth System

Ground-based in situ measurements—ranging from thermometer measurements to ecosystem surveys—are the oldest and most diverse type of environmental observations, and they remain a fundamental component of an integrated climate observing system. Over the past 60 years, direct ground-based measurements have been supplemented by airborne in situ measurements, from both aircraft and balloons, and by ground-based, remotely sensed data, such as weather radars and vertical profilers of atmospheric composition. Collectively, these observations span a broad range of instruments and types of information, from instruments initially deployed as part of research experiments to operational networks at the local, state, regional, national, and international levels deployed by a range of public and private institutions. In addition to directly supporting research on the Earth system and specific decision-making needs, these observations are critical for calibrating and validating satellite measurements and for developing and testing climate and Earth system model parameterizations.

There have been significant advances in in situ and ground-based monitoring networks over the past several decades. Examples include the Arctic observing network, the Tropical-Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) array constructed primarily to monitor temperature profiles in the upper equatorial Pacific ocean and support predictions of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, “Argo” floats that provide dispersed observations of temperature and salinity of the upper ocean, the FLUXNET network of ecosystem carbon exchange with the atmosphere, the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) that provides observations of atmospheric optical properties, and the Atmosphere Radiation Measurement (ARM) program. In addition, there is a wealth of observations from a broad range of public and private systems designed primarily for other purposes—such as wind monitoring for port safety—that could potentially be tapped to supplement existing climate observations and yield new and valuable insights. These systems will have to be integrated and maintained for decades to realize their full potential as components of a climate observing system.

The recent study Observing Weather and Climate from the Ground Up: A Nationwide Network of Networks (NRC, 2009j) discusses the value and challenges of coordinating the wide range of ground-based weather, climate, and climate-related observing systems to create a more integrated system that could be greater than the sum of its individual parts. The report calls for improved coordination across existing public and private networks of in situ observations. However, the number and diversity of entities involved make this a major organizational and governance challenge. If properly developed, an integrated, nationwide network of weather, climate, and related observations

would undoubtedly be a tremendous asset for supporting improved understanding of climate change as well as climate-related decision making.

In addition to maintaining and enhancing observational capacity, research on new methods of observation, such as the miniaturization of instruments for in situ data collection, could both enhance data collection capabilities and lower the often substantial costs associated with data collection systems. To become effective components of an integrated climate observing system, these observational capacities, whether they represent the continuation of existing capabilities or the development of new ones, should be developed with a view toward providing meaningful, accurate, well-calibrated, integrated, and sustained data across a range of climate and climate-related variables.

Observations of Human Systems

Other sections of this chapter highlight the importance of social science research in understanding the causes, consequences, and opportunities to respond to climate change. As with research on the physical and biological components of the climate system, this research depends on the availability of high-quality, long-term, and readily accessible observations of human systems, not only in the United States but also in areas of the world with relevant U.S. interests. Census data, economic productivity and consumption data, data on health and disease patterns, insurance coverage, crop yields, hazards exposure, and public perceptions and preferences are just some of the types of information that can be relevant for developing an improved understanding of human interactions with the climate system and for answering various decision-relevant questions related to the human dimensions of climate change. Socioeconomic data are also critical for linking environmental observations with assessments of climate-related risk, vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity in human systems. As with other types of observations, long time series are needed to monitor changes in the drivers of climate change and trends in resilience and vulnerability. Such observational data are most useful when geocoded (linked to specific locations) and matched (aggregated or downscaled) to scales of interest to researchers and decision makers, and when human and environmental data are collected and archived in ways that facilitate linkages between these data.

Studies conducted in the 1970s and 1980s demonstrate the feasibility of data collection efforts that integrate across the engineering and social sciences to better understand and model energy consumption (Black et al., 1985; Cramer et al., 1984; Harris and Blumstein, 1984; Socolow, 1978). Linkage of data on land-cover change and its social

and economic drivers has also been productive (NRC, 2005c, 2007i). Large-scale social science data collection efforts, ranging from the census to federally funded surveys such as the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, the General Social Survey, and the National Election Studies show the feasibility and value of long-term efforts to collect high-quality social data. However, to date there has been no sustained support to collect comparable data at the individual or organizational level on environmentally significant behaviors, such as energy use and GHG emissions. As states and other entities adopt policies to limit GHG emissions, sustained and integrated efforts to collect data on environmentally significant consumption will be extremely helpful for monitoring progress and honing programs and policies.

Likewise, data on the impacts of climate change on human systems and on vulnerability and adaptation of human systems to global environmental changes are critically needed (NRC, 2009g,k). Examples include morbidity and mortality data associated with air and water quality, expanded data sets focusing on household risk-pooling strategies and adaptation options, and data on urban infrastructure vulnerabilities to extreme weather and climate events. Methods that allow aggregation of data from across a range of regions to develop national-scale understanding will sometimes be necessary, but local and regional vulnerability assessments will also be needed, and these depend on both local and appropriately downscaled information (Braden et al., 2009).The potential exists for greater use of remote sensing to develop indicators of vulnerability to various climate-related hazards and of the socioeconomic drivers of climate change. If validated against in situ measurements, such measures can allow for monitoring of human-climate interactions at much finer spatial and temporal scales than is currently feasible with surveys or other in situ measures of human variables.

There is also great potential in the use of mobile communications technology, such as cell and smart phones, as a vehicle for social science research that has fine temporal and spatial scales (Eagle et al., 2009; Raento et al., 2009; Zuwallack, 2009). Many data collection efforts previously undertaken for governmental administrative purposes, business purposes, or social science research not related to climate change could potentially support the research needed for understanding the human aspects of climate change and climate-related decision making, but only if they are geocoded and linked to other data sets. International, longitudinal databases such as the International Forestry and Institutions database (e.g., Chhatre and Agrawal, 2008) also have great potential to serve as a bridge between local, regional, national, and global processes, as well as for assessing the dynamics of change across time and space.

Finally, because most major social and economic databases have been developed

for purposes unrelated to climate change, these data have significant gaps from the perspective of climate science. However, all climate-relevant socioeconomic and other human systems data need not necessarily be held in a single common observing system. They simply need to be inventoried, archived, and made broadly accessible to enable the kinds of integrative analyses that are necessary for the new climate change research. A major effort is needed both to develop appropriate local data collection efforts and to coordinate them into national and global systems. Initial progress can be made by coordination across specific domains and sectors (e.g., coastal vulnerabilities, health vulnerabilities) and across scales so that locally useful information also contributes to larger-scale indicators and vice versa. Data integration is also a critical need. Some of these issues are explored in the next subsection.

Data Assimilation, Analysis, and Management

Data assimilation refers to the combination of disparate observations to provide a comprehensive and internally consistent data set that describes how a system is changing over time. Improvements in data assimilation systems have led directly to substantial improvements in numerical weather prediction over the past several decades by improving the realism of the initial conditions used to run weather forecast models. Improved data assimilation techniques have also led to improved data sets for analyses of climate change.

Climate data records (see NRC, 2004a) are generated by a systematic and ongoing process of climate data integration and reprocessing. Often referred to as reanalysis, the fundamental idea behind such efforts (see, e.g., Kalnay et al., 1996) is to use data assimilation methods to capitalize on the wealth of disparate historical observations and integrate them with newer observations, such as space-based data. Data assimilation, analysis, and reanalysis are also becoming increasingly important for areas other than regional and global atmospheric models, such as ocean models, land models, marine ecosystems, cryosphere models, and atmospheric chemistry models.

Improvements have occurred in all components of data assimilation and reanalysis, including data assimilation models, the quality and quantity of the observations, and methods for statistical interpolation (see, e.g., Daley, 1991; Kalnay, 2002). However, additional advances are needed. For example, data for the ocean, atmosphere, and land are typically assimilated separately in different models and frameworks. Given that these systems are intrinsically coupled on climate time scales, for instance through exchanges of water and energy, coupled data assimilation methodologies are needed to take into account their interactions. Next-generation data assimilation and reanaly-

sis systems should aim to fully incorporate all aspects of the Earth system (and, eventually, human systems) to support integrated understanding and facilitate analyses of coupled human-environment systems.

Finally, and critically, all observing systems and data analysis activities depend on effective data management—including data archiving, stewardship, and access systems. Historically, support for data management has often lagged behind support for initial data collection (NRC, 2007d). As the demand for sustained climate observations is realized and actions are taken to improve, extend, and coordinate observations, there will be an increase in the demands on both technology and human capacity to ensure that the resulting data are securely archived, quality controlled, and made available to a wide range of users (Baker et al., 2007; NRC, 2004a, 2005e, 2007d). Likewise, as data volume and diversity expand new computational approaches as well as greater computing power will be needed to process and integrate the different data sets on a schedule useful for planning responses to climate change. Finally, because some data have the potential for violating personal privacy norms and legal guarantees, proper safeguards must be in place to protect confidentiality.

Toward Integrated Observations and Earth System Analysis

An integrated climate observing system and improved data analysis and data management systems will be needed to support all of the other themes described in this chapter. Regular observations of the Earth system, for example, are needed to improve climate models, monitor climate and climate-related changes, assess the vulnerability of different human and environmental systems to these change, monitor the effectiveness of actions taken to limit the magnitude of climate change, warn about impending tipping points, and inform decision making. However, creating such systems and making the information available in usable formats to a broad range of researchers and decision makers involves a number of formidable challenges, such as improving linkages between human and environmental data, ensuring adequate support for data archiving and management activities, and creating improved tools for data access and dissemination.

An integrated Earth system analysis capability, or the ability to create an accurate, internally consistent, synthesized description of the evolving Earth system, is a key research need identified both in this report and in many previous reports (NRC, 2009k). Perhaps the single greatest roadblock to achieving this capability is the lack of comprehensive, robust, and unbiased long-term global observations of the climate system and other related human and environmental systems. Other scientific and technical challenges

include identifying the criteria for optimizing assimilation techniques for different purposes, estimating uncertainties, and meeting user demands for higher spatial resolution.

The NRC report Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate (NRC, 2009g) recommends that the federal government “expand and maintain national observation systems to provide information needed for climate decision support. These systems should link existing data on physical, ecological, social, economic, and health variables to each other and develop new data and key indicators as needed” for estimating climate change vulnerabilities and informing responses intended to limit and adapt to climate change. It also notes the need for geocoding existing social and environmental databases; developing methods for aggregating, disaggregating, and integrating such data sets with each other and with climate and other Earth system data; creating new databases to fill critical gaps; supporting modeling and process studies to improve methods for making the data useful; and engaging decision makers in the identification of critical data needs. That study’s recommendations set appropriate strategic directions for an integrated data system. Ultimately, the collection and archiving of data for such a system would need to be evaluated on the basis of potential and actual use in research and decision making.

The recommendations in Chapter 5 provide advice on some steps that can be taken to address these challenges.

THEME 7: IMPROVED PROJECTIONS, ANALYSES, AND ASSESSMENTS

Nearly every scientific challenge associated with understanding and responding to climate change requires an assessment of the interactions among different components of the coupled human-environment system. A wide range of models, tools, and approaches, from quantitative numerical models and analytic techniques to frameworks and processes that engage interdisciplinary research teams and stakeholders, are needed to simulate and assess these interactions. While decisions are ultimately the outcome of individual, group, and political decision-making processes, scientific tools and approaches can aid decision making by systematically incorporating complex information, projecting the consequences of different choices, accounting for uncertainties, and facilitating disciplined evaluation of trade-offs as the nation turns its attention to responding to climate change. Table 4.7 lists some of the specific research needs identified in Part II of the report that are related to the development of models, tools, and approaches for improving projections, analyses, and assessments of climate change.

TABLE 4.7 Examples of Science Needs Related to Improving Projections, Analyses, and Assessments of Climate Change (from Part II )

The boundaries between various tools and approaches for integrated analysis of climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and response options are not rigid; often, a combination of several tools or approaches is needed for improved understanding and to support decision making. This section highlights a few of the integrated tools and approaches that can be used, including

Scenarios of future GHG emissions and other human activities;

Climate and Earth system models;

Process models of ecological functions and ecosystem services;

Integrated assessment approaches, which couple human and environmental systems;

Policy-oriented heuristic models and exercises; and

Process-based decision tools.

This discussion is not intended to be an exhaustive treatment of these approaches—more detailed discussions can be found in Part II of the report and in other reports (e.g., NRC, 2009g)—nor is it intended as a complete list of important tools and ap-

proaches for integrated analysis. Rather, it provides examples of the kinds of approaches that need to be developed, improved, and used more extensively to improve scientific understanding of climate change and make this scientific knowledge more useful for decision making.

Scenario Development

Scenarios help improve understanding of the key processes and uncertainties associated with projections of future climate change. Scenarios are critical for helping decision makers establish targets or budgets for future GHG emissions and devise plans to adapt to the projected impacts of climate change in the context of changes in other human and environmental systems. Scenario development is an inherently interdisciplinary and integrative activity requiring contributions from many different scientific fields as well as processes that link scientific analysis with decision making. Chapter 6 describes some recent scenario development efforts as well as several key outstanding research needs.

Climate Models

Climate models simulate how the atmosphere, oceans, and land surface respond to increasing concentrations of GHGs and other climate drivers that vary over time (see Chapter 6 ). These models are based on numerical representations of fundamental Earth system processes, such as the exchange of energy, moisture, and materials between the atmosphere and the underlying ocean or land surface. Climate models have been critically important for understanding past and current climate change and remain an essential tool for projecting future changes. They have also been steadily increasing in detail, sophistication, and complexity, most notably by improving spatial resolution and incorporating representations of atmospheric chemistry, biogeochemical cycling, and other Earth system processes. These improvements represent an important integrative tool because they allow for the evaluation of feedbacks between the climate system and other aspects of the Earth system.

As discussed in Chapter 6 , there are a number of practical limitations, gaps in understanding, and institutional constraints that limit the ability of climate models to inform climate-related decision making, including the following

The ability to explicitly simulate all relevant climate processes (for example, individual clouds) on appropriate space and time scales;

Constraints on computing resources;

Uncertainties and complexities associated with data assimilation and parameterization;

Lack of a well-developed framework for regional downscaling;

Representing regional modes of variability;

Projecting changes in storm patterns and extreme weather events;

Inclusion of additional Earth system processes, such as ice sheet dynamics and fully interactive ecosystem dynamics;

Ability to simulate certain nonlinear processes, including thresholds, tipping points, and abrupt changes; and

Representing all of the processes that determine the vulnerability, resilience, and adaptability of both natural and human systems.

As discussed in Chapter 6 , climate modelers in the United States and around the world have begun to devise strategies, such as decadal-scale climate predictions, for improving the utility of climate model experiments. These experimental strategies may indeed yield more decision-relevant information, but, given the importance of local- and regional-scale information for planning responses to climate change, continued and expanded investments in regional climate modeling remain a particularly pressing priority. Expanded computing resources and human capital are also needed.

Progress in both regional and global climate modeling cannot occur in isolation. Expanded observations are needed to initialize models and validate results, to develop improved representations of physical processes, and to support downscaling techniques. For example, local- and regional-scale observations are needed to verify regional models or downscaled estimates of precipitation, and expanded ocean observations are needed to support decadal predictions. Certain human actions and activities, including agricultural practices, fire suppression, deforestation, water management, and urban development, can also interact strongly with climate change. Without models that account for such interactions and feedbacks among all important aspects of the Earth system and related human systems, it is difficult to fully evaluate the costs, benefits, trade-offs and co-benefits associated with different courses of action that might be taken to respond to climate change (the next subsection describes modeling approaches that address some of these considerations). An advanced generation of climate models with explicit and improved representations of terrestrial and marine ecosystems, the cryosphere, and other important systems and processes, and with improved representations and linkages to models of human systems and actions, will be as important as improving model resolution for increasing the value and utility of climate and Earth system models for decision making.

Models and Approaches for Integrated Assessments

Integrated assessments combine information and insights from the physical and biological sciences with information and insights from the social sciences (including economics, geography, psychology, and sociology) to provide comprehensive analyses that are sometimes more applicable to decision making than analyses of human or environmental systems in isolation. Integrated assessments—which are done through either formal modeling or through informal linkages among relevant disciplines—have been used to develop insights into the possible effectiveness and repercussions of specific environmental policy choices (including, but not limited to, climate change policy) and to evaluate the impacts, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity of both human and natural systems to a variety of environmental stresses. Several different kinds of integrated assessment approaches are discussed in the paragraphs below.

Integrated Assessment Models

In the context of climate change, integrated assessment models typically incorporate a climate model of moderate or intermediate complexity with models of the economic system (especially the industrial and energy sectors), land use, agriculture, ecosystems, or other systems or sectors germane to the question being addressed. Rather than focusing on precise projections of key system variables, integrated assessment models are typically used to compare the relative effectiveness and implications of different policy measures (see Chapter 17 ). Integrated assessment models have been used, for instance, to understand how policies designed to boost production of biofuels may actually increase tropical deforestation and lead to food shortages (e.g., Gurgel et al., 2007) and how policies that limit CO 2 from land use and energy use together lead to very different costs and consequences than policies that address energy use alone (e.g., Wise et al., 2009a). Another common use of integrated assessments and integrated assessment models is for “impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability” or IAV assessments, which evaluate the impacts of climate change on specific systems or sectors (e.g., agriculture), including their vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and explore the effectiveness of various response options. IAV assessments can aid in vulnerability and adaptation assessments of the sort described in Theme 3 above.

An additional and valuable role of integrated assessment activities is to help decision makers deal with uncertainty. Three basic approaches to uncertainty analysis have been employed by the integrated assessment community: sensitivity analysis, stochastic simulation, and sequential decision making under uncertainty (DOE, 2009b; Weyant, 2009). The aim of these approaches is not to overcome or reduce uncertainty,

but rather to characterize it and help decision makers make informed and robust decisions in the face of uncertainty (Schneider and Kuntz-Duriseti, 2002), for instance by adopting an adaptive risk-management approach to decision making (see Box 3.1 ). Analytic characterizations of uncertainty can also help to determine the factors or processes that dominate the total uncertainty associated with a specific decision and thus potentially help identify research priorities. For example, while uncertainties in climate sensitivity and future human energy production and consumption are widely appreciated, improved methods for characterizing the uncertainty in other socioeconomic drivers of environmental change are needed. In addition, a set of fully integrated models capable of analyzing policies that unfold sequentially, while taking account of uncertainty, could inform policy design and processes of societal and political judgment, including judgments of acceptable risk.

Enhanced integrated assessment capability, including improved representation of diverse elements of the coupled human-environment system in integrated assessment models, promises benefits across a wide range of scientific fields as well as for supporting decision making. A long-range goal of integrated assessment models is to seamlessly connect models of human activity, GHG emissions, and Earth system processes, including the impacts of climate change on human and natural systems and the feedbacks of changes in these systems on climate change. In addition to improved computational resources and improved understanding of human and environmental systems, integrated assessment modeling would also benefit from model intercomparison and assessment techniques similar to those employed in models that focus on Earth system processes.

Life-Cycle Assessment Methods 4

The impacts of a product (or process) on the environment come not only when the product is being used for its intended purpose, but also as the product is manufactured and as it is disposed of at the end of its useful life. Efforts to account for the full set of environmental impacts of a product, from production of raw materials through manufacture and use to its eventual disposition, are referred to as life-cycle analysis (LCA). LCA is an important tool for identifying opportunities for reducing GHG emissions and also for examining trade-offs between GHG emissions and other environmental impacts. LCA has been used to examine the GHG emissions and land use requirements of renewable energy technologies (e.g., NRC, 2009) and other technolo-

gies that might reduce GHG emissions (e.g., Jaramillo et al., 2009, Kubiszewski et al., 2010, Lenzen, 2008, Samaras and Meisterling, 2008).

LCA of corn-based ethanol and other liquid fuels derived from plant materials (e.g., Davis et al., 2009; Kim et al., 2009; Robertson et al., 2008; Tilman et al., 2009) illustrate both the value of the method and some of the complexities in applying it. Because corn ethanol is produced from sugars created by photosynthesis, which removes CO 2 from ambient air, it might be assumed that substituting corn ethanol for gasoline produced from petroleum would substantially reduce net GHG emissions. However, LCA shows that these emissions reductions are much smaller (and in some cases may even result in higher GHG emissions) when the emissions associated with growing the corn, processing it into ethanol, and transporting it are accounted for. A substantial shift to corn-based ethanol (or other biofuels) could also lead to significant land use changes and changes in food prices. LCA also points out the importance of farming practices in shaping agricultural GHG emissions and to the potential for alternative plant inputs, such as cellulose, as a feedstock for liquid fuels.

The utility and potential applications of LCA have been recognized by government agencies in the United States and around the world (EPA, 2010a; European Commission Joint Research Centre, 2010) and by the private sector. For example, Walmart is emphasizing LCA in the sustainability assessment it is requiring of all its suppliers. 5 Useful as it is, LCA, like any policy analysis tool, has limitations. For example, the boundaries for the analysis must be defined, materials used for multiple purposes must be allocated appropriately, and the databases typically consulted to estimate emissions at each step of the analysis may have uncertainties. There is currently little standardization of these databases or of methods for drawing boundaries and allocating impacts. LCA may also identify multiple environmental impacts. For example, nuclear reactors or hydroelectric systems produce relatively few GHG emissions but have other environmental impacts (see, e.g., NRC, 2009d; NRC, 2009f), and it is not clear how to weight trade-offs across different types of impacts (but see Huijbregts et al., 2008). Finally, LCA is not familiar to most consumers and policy makers so its ultimate contribution to better decision making will depend on processes that encourage its use. These and other scientific challenges are starting to be addressed by the research community (see, e.g., Finnveden et al., 2009; Horne et al., 2009; Ramaswami et al., 2008); additional research on LCA would allow its application to an expanding range of problems and improve its use as a decision tool in adaptive risk-management strategies.

Environmental Benefit-Cost and Cost-Effectiveness Analyses

Integrated assessment models are intended to help decision makers understand the implications of taking different courses of action, but when there are many outcomes of concern, the problem of how to make trade-offs remains. Benefit-cost analysis is a common method for making trade-offs across outcomes and thus linking modeling to the decision-support systems (see Chapter 17 ). Benefit-cost analysis defines each outcome as either a benefit or a cost, assigns a value to each of the projected outcomes, weights them by the degree of certainty associated with the projection of outcomes, and discounts outcomes that occur in the future. Then, by comparing the ratio of benefits to costs (or using a similar metric), benefit-cost analysis allows for comparisons across alternative decisions, including across different policy options.

As discussed in Chapter 17 , the current limits of benefit-cost analysis applied to global climate change decision making are substantial. A research program focused on improvements to benefit-cost analysis and other valuation approaches, especially for ecosystem services (see below), could yield major contributions to improved decision making. Equity and distributional weighting issues, including issues related to weighting the interests of present versus future generations, are areas of particular interest. In all, five major research needs are identified in Chapter 17 : (1) estimating the social value of outcomes for which there is no market value, such as for many ecosystem services; (2) handling low-probability/high-consequence events; (3) developing better methods for comparing near-term outcomes to those that occur many years hence; (4) incorporating technological change into the assessment of outcomes; and (5) including equity consideration in the analysis.

In contrast to benefit-cost analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis compares costs of actions to predefined objectives, without assigning a monetary value to those objectives. Cost-effectiveness analysis, which is also discussed in Chapter 17 , can be especially useful when there is only one policy objective, such as comparing alternative policies for pricing GHG emissions to reach a specific emissions budget or concentration target. Cost-effectiveness analysis avoids some of the difficulties of benefit-cost analysis. However, when more than one outcome matters to decision makers, cost-effectiveness analysis requires a technique for making trade-offs. Again, additional research can help to extend and improve such analyses.

Ecosystem Function and Ecosystem Services Models

Dynamic models of ecosystem processes and services translate what is known about biophysical functions of ecosystems and landscapes or water systems into information about the provision of goods and services that are important to society (Daily and Matson, 2008). Such models are critical in allowing particular land, freshwater, or ocean use decisions to be evaluated in terms of resulting values to decision makers and society; for evaluating the effects of specific policies on the provision of goods and services; or for assessing trade-offs and side benefits of particular choices of land or water use. For example, Nelson et al. (2009) used ecosystem models to determine the potential for policies aimed at increasing carbon sequestration to also aid in species conservation. Such analyses can yield maps and other methods for conveying complex information in ways that can effectively engage decision makers and allow them to compare alternative decisions and their impacts on the ecosystem services of interest to them (MEA, 2005; Tallis and Kareiva, 2006).

Ecosystem process models and other methods for assessing the effects of policies on ecosystem goods and services (MEA, 2005; Turner et al., 1998; Wilson and Howarth, 2002) also provide critical information about the impacts and trade-offs associated with both climate-related and other choices, including impacts that might not otherwise be considered by decision makers (Daily et al., 2009). If and when such information is available, various market-based schemes and “payments for ecosystem services” approaches have been developed to provide a mechanism for compensating resource managers for the ecosystem services provided to other individuals and communities. The design and evaluation of such mechanisms requires collaboration across disciplines (including, for example, ecology and economics) and improvements in the ability to link incentives with trade-offs and synergies among multiple services (Jack et al., 2008). Valuation of goods and services that typically fall outside the realm of economic analysis remains a significant research challenge, although a number of approaches have been developed and applied (Farber et al., 2002).

Policy-Oriented Heuristic Models

Policy-oriented simulation methods can be a useful tool for informing policy makers about the basic characteristics of climate policy choices. These simulation methods can either involve informal linkages between policy choices, climate trajectories, and economic information, or be implemented in a formal integrated modeling framework. For example, the C-ROADS model 6 divides the countries of the world into blocs

with common situations or common interests (such as the developed nations), takes as input the commitments to GHG emissions reductions each bloc might be willing to make, and generates projected emissions, atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, temperature, and sea level rise over the next 100 years. The underlying model is simple enough to be used in real time by policy makers to ask “what if” questions that can inform negotiations. It can also be used in combination with gaming simulations in which individuals or teams take on the roles of blocs of countries and negotiate with each other to simulate not only the climate system but also the international negotiation process. When such simplified models are used, however, it is important to ensure that the simplified representations of complex processes are backed up, supported, and verified by more comprehensive models that can simulate the full range of critical processes in both the Earth system and human systems.

Heuristic models and exercises have also been developed that engage decision makers, scientists, and others in planning exercises and gaming to explore futures. Such tools are particularly well developed for military and business applications but have also been applied to climate change, including in processes that engage citizens (Poumadère et al., 2008; Toth and Hizsnyik, 2008). Though not predictive, such models and exercises can provide unexpected insights into future possibilities, especially those that involve human interactions. They can also be powerful tools for helping decision makers understand and develop strategies to cope with uncertainty, especially if coupled with improved visualization techniques (Sheppard, 2005; Sheppard and Meitner, 2005).

Metrics and Indicators

Metrics and indicators are critical tools for monitoring climate change, understanding vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and evaluating the effectiveness of actions taken to respond to climate change. While research on indicators has been a focus of attention for several decades (Dietz et al., 2009c; Orians and Policansky, 2009; Parris and Kates, 2003; York, 2009), progress is needed to improve integration of physical indicators with emerging indicators of ecosystem health and human well-being (NRC, 2005c). Developing reliable and valid approaches for measuring and monitoring sustainable well-being (that is, approaches that account for multiple dimensions of human well-being, the social and environmental factors that contribute to it, and the relative efficiency with which nations, regions, and communities produce it) would greatly aid adaptive risk management (see Box 3.1 ) by providing guidance on the overall effectiveness of actions taken (or not taken) in response to climate change and other risks.

Development of and improvements in metrics or indicators that span and integrate all relevant physical, chemical, biological, and socioeconomic domains are needed to help guide various actions taken to respond to climate change. Such metrics should focus on the “vitals” of the Earth system, such as freshwater and food availability, ecosystem health, and human well-being, but should also be flexible and, to the extent allowed by present understanding, attempt to identify possible indicators of tipping points or abrupt changes in both the climate system and related human and environmental systems. Many candidate metrics and indicators exist, but additional research will be needed to test, refine, and extend these measures.

One key element in this research area is the development of more refined metrics and indicators of social change. For example, gross domestic product (GDP) is a well-developed measure of economic transactions that is often interpreted as a measure of overall human well-being, but GDP was not designed for this use and may not be a good indicator of either collective or average well-being (Hecht, 2005). A variety of efforts are under way to develop alternative indicators of both human well-being and of human impact on the environment that may help monitor social and environmental change and the link between them (Frey, 2008; Hecht, 2005; Krueger, 2009; Parris and Kates, 2003; Wackernagel et al., 2002; World Bank, 2006).

Certification Systems and Standards

A number of certification systems have emerged in recent decades to identify products or services with certain environmental or social attributes, assist in auditing compliance with environmental or resource management standards, and to inform consumers about different aspects of the products they consume (Dilling and Farhar, 2007; NRC, 2010d). In the context of climate change, certification systems and standards are sets of rules and procedures that are intended to ensure that sellers of credits are following steps that ensure that CO 2 emissions are actually being reduced (see Chapter 17 ). Certification systems typically span a product’s entire supply chain, from source materials or activities to end consumer. Performance standards are frequently set and monitored by third-party certifiers, and the “label” is typically the indicator of compliance with the standards of the system.

Natural resource certification schemes, many of which originated in the forestry sector, have inspired use in fisheries, tourism, some crop production, and park management (Auld et al., 2008; Conroy, 2006). Variants are also used in the health and building sectors and in even more complicated supply chains associated with other markets. Certification schemes are increasingly being used to address climate change issues,

especially issues related to energy use, land use, and green infrastructure, as well as broader sustainability issues (Auld et al., 2008; Vine et al., 2001). With such a diversification and proliferation of certification systems and standards, credibility, equitability, usability, and unintended consequences have become important challenges. These can all be evaluated through scientific research efforts (NRC, 2010d; Oldenburg et al., 2009). For example, research will be needed to improve understanding and analysis of the credibility and effectiveness of specific approaches, including positive and negative unintended consequences. Analysis in this domain, as with many of the others discussed in this chapter, will require integrative and interdisciplinary approaches that span a range of scientific disciplines and also require input from decision makers.

CHAPTER CONCLUSION

Climate change has the potential to intersect with virtually every aspect of human activity, with significant repercussions for things that people care about. The risks associated with climate change have motivated many decision makers to begin to take or plan actions to limit climate change or adapt to its impacts. These actions and plans, in turn, place new demands on climate change research. While scientific research alone cannot determine what actions should be taken in response to climate change, it can inform, assist, and support those who must make these important decisions.

The seven integrative, crosscutting research themes described in this chapter are critical elements of a climate research endeavor that seeks to both improve understanding and to provide input to and support for climate-related actions and decisions, and these themes would form a powerful foundation for an expanded climate change research enterprise. Such an enterprise would continue to improve our understanding of the causes, consequences, and complexities of climate change from an integrated perspective that considers both human systems and the Earth system. It would also inform, evaluate, and improve society’s responses to climate change, including actions that are or could be taken to limit the magnitude of climate change, adapt to its impacts, or support more effective climate-related decisions.

Several of the themes in this chapter represent new or understudied elements of climate change science, while others represent established research programs. Progress in all seven themes is needed (either iteratively or concurrently) because they are synergistic. Meeting this expanded set of research requirements will require changes in the way climate change research is supported, organized, and conducted. Chapter 5 discusses how this broader, more integrated climate change research enterprise might be formulated, organized, and conducted, and provides recommendations for the new era of climate change research.

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Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for—and in many cases is already affecting—a broad range of human and natural systems. The compelling case for these conclusions is provided in Advancing the Science of Climate Change , part of a congressionally requested suite of studies known as America's Climate Choices. While noting that there is always more to learn and that the scientific process is never closed, the book shows that hypotheses about climate change are supported by multiple lines of evidence and have stood firm in the face of serious debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations.

As decision makers respond to these risks, the nation's scientific enterprise can contribute through research that improves understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change and also is useful to decision makers at the local, regional, national, and international levels. The book identifies decisions being made in 12 sectors, ranging from agriculture to transportation, to identify decisions being made in response to climate change.

Advancing the Science of Climate Change calls for a single federal entity or program to coordinate a national, multidisciplinary research effort aimed at improving both understanding and responses to climate change. Seven cross-cutting research themes are identified to support this scientific enterprise. In addition, leaders of federal climate research should redouble efforts to deploy a comprehensive climate observing system, improve climate models and other analytical tools, invest in human capital, and improve linkages between research and decisions by forming partnerships with action-oriented programs.

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Food security in developed countries shows resilience to climate change

A study by the University of Southampton has found that market forces have provided good food price stability over the past half century, despite extreme weather conditions.

Research into US wheat commodities by economists at Southampton, in collaboration with UCL, also suggests high uncertainty about the state of future harvests hasn't destabilised the market.

Findings are published in the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control .

Wheat is an important crop in the United States used for food production. A small fraction becomes animal feed and the crop isn't used to generate biofuel. The main buyers of wheat are flour mills, food processors, and direct consumers.

The researchers analysed data on American wheat production, inventories, crop area, prices and wider market conditions from 1950 to 2018, together with records of annual fluctuations in the weather for the same period. This showed strong evidence of an increase in weather and harvest variability from 1974 onwards.

"Before the mid-70s, oil was the dominant driver of wheat price fluctuations in the US, but after this point we see a much stronger influence coming from a wider set of factors that includes weather and food consumption," explains lead author Dr Vincenzo De Lipsis of the University of Southampton.

"Extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods, are becoming more frequent and intense across the world due to climate change. Understanding the impact of this variability on food commodity prices is crucial, as it could have serious implications for food security."

The authors found that in the US the market system around wheat has remained competitive, functioning well and adapting to the new uncertain climate conditions. The potential for weather fluctuations to adversely affect wheat prices has increased, but in reality this hasn't been passed on to the market. Wheat prices remain relatively stable, along with the price of associated goods.

The researchers found that this is mainly due to farmers and agricultural industries providing a buffer, smoothing out any bumps in the supply of grain to retailers and consumers, thus reducing shocks to the market that poor harvests may cause. This has been achieved by investment in substantial storage facilities, modern infrastructure and good transport links.

According to the study, the US wheat sector has demonstrated remarkable resilience and flexibility in adapting to the ever-increasing unpredictability of the climate and harvest by modifying its inventory management. At the same time, there is no indication that the wheat market is vulnerable to excessive volatility from the related financial futures market, which can often emerge in commodity markets in response to increased uncertainty regarding future production capacity.

Commenting on what policymakers can take from the research, Dr De Lipsis says: "We have shown that market forces provide a powerful stabilising mechanism to counter the increased variability in weather and harvest observed in the last half a century.

"The market mechanism is one of the most effective instruments that governments have available for climate change adaptation and food security. But for this to work effectively, we need a combination of factors in place: a well-functioning competitive commodity market, a modern infrastructure with extensive transport networks, sufficient food storage capacity and a liquid futures market.

"However, while the system in the US continues to be robust, it's hard to predict if storage mechanisms will work equally well if faced with unprecedented levels of weather variability -- the kind of extreme events that can potentially disrupt the transport network and the very infrastructure on which it is based."

The authors acknowledge that stability is easier to achieve in developed and more affluent countries, but say that their results underscore the need to prioritise investment in these key areas in developing regions to ensure a reliable and secure food supply in the future.

Food and Agriculture
Agriculture and Food
Global Warming
Severe Weather
Resource Shortage
World Development
Public services
Economic growth
Meteorology
Severe weather terminology (United States)
Stock market

Story Source:

Materials provided by University of Southampton . Note: Content may be edited for style and length.

Journal Reference :

Vincenzo De Lipsis, Paolo Agnolucci. Climate change and the US wheat commodity market . Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control , 2024; 161: 104823 DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104823

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"What We Think About When We Try Not To Think About Global Warming" by Per Epsen Stoknes, "Losing Earth: A Recent History" by Nathaniel Rich and "Eat, Poop, Die" by Joe Roman.

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The climate crisis can often feel terrifying and, like any effort to slow its progression, utterly futile. But before you resolve yourself to complete apathy, many environmental scientists have a more optimistic view of things — and, more importantly, comprehensive plans of action that anyone and everyone should take.

I reached out to a couple of environmental agencies to find out which books can not only educate readers on climate change but spur us into action, effectively taking one step towards a more hospitable future for all.

Scientists, conservationists and other environment experts from groups like The Nature Conservancy helped compile the following list of science-based reads that are vital, not just for Earth Day, but for every day of the year.

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Difficult grace.

Illuminated Body details on walls and ceiling

Annenberg Center for the Performing Arts, 3680 Walnut St.

Earth Week 2024

Purple blooms on the verge of opening, backlit by the sun

This is a campuswide week of events, lectures, and volunteer opportunities designed to educate and inspire action related to environmental justice, climate, and nature-based solutions. This year’s theme is Restore & Regenerate.

Various locations

Take Our Children to Work Day

A child sits at a table reading a book, two closed books are on the table beside them.

Excellence in Graduate Teaching Reception

Penn Grad Center brick exterior with foliage

5:00 p.m. - 6:30 p.m.

Penn Graduate Student Center, 3615 Locust Walk

Arts, Humanities, & Social Sciences

Experiencing extreme weather predicts support for policies to mitigate effects of climate change

An analysis by the annenberg public policy center finds exposure to extreme weather is associated with support for policies intended to mitigate the effects of climate change..

Most Americans report having personally experienced the effects of extreme weather, according to new survey data from the Annenberg Public Policy Center .

More than 6 in 10 people favor increased investment in energy-efficient public transit and an equal number support providing tax credits to families who install rooftop solar or battery storage, according to the nationally representative panel survey, fielded in November 2023 with over 1,500 U.S. adults.

Solar panel workers installing a panel to a roof.

Two-thirds of U.S. adults say that in the past year their typical daily activities were affected either sometimes, often, or frequently by extreme outdoor heat, and half say that their typical daily activities were affected sometimes, often, or frequently by poor air quality resulting from wildfire smoke.

Importantly, an analysis finds a connection between these reported experiences and policy support: Exposure to extreme weather is associated with support for a half-dozen policies intended to mitigate the effects of climate change, policies that are contained in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.

The findings were released at an opening session of the Society of Environmental Journalists’ (SEJ) 33rd annual conference, which was held at Penn. Penn’s Annenberg Public Policy Center (APPC) hosted the group in celebration of the Penn Center for Science, Sustainability, and the Media.

“We’ve traditionally assumed that experiencing a threat will affect policy preferences,” says APPC director Kathleen Hall Jamieson . “In this polarized time, on this polarized topic, that assumption holds true. People who report exposure to extreme weather are more supportive of measures to help address climate change.”

The survey, the 17th wave of a nationally representative panel of 1,538 U.S. adults, finds that millions of Americans report that extreme weather has affected their daily lives over the past year.

Read more at Annenberg Public Policy Center .

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‘The Illuminated Body’ fuses color, light, and sound

A new Arthur Ross Gallery exhibition of work by artist Barbara Earl Thomas features cut-paper portraits reminiscent of stained glass and an immersive installation constructed with intricately cut material lit from behind.

dramatic light on Robert Indiana’s LOVE statue on Penn’s caption.

Campus & Community

25 years of ‘LOVE’

The iconic sculpture by pop artist Robert Indiana arrived on campus in 1999 and soon became a natural place to come together.

Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health

Health Sciences

Two-and-a-half decades of research in Malawi

As the country’s life expectancy has risen, the Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health has shifted its current and future research to aging.

Science & Technology

In hot water: Coral resilience in the face of climate change

Over a decade, researchers from Penn studied coral species in Hawaii to better understand their adaptability to the effects of climate change.

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Research articles

Global warming decreases connectivity among coral populations

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Joana Figueiredo
Christopher J. Thomas
Emmanuel Hanert

Phenological mismatches between above- and belowground plant responses to climate warming

The authors conduct a meta-analysis to reveal mismatches in above- and belowground plant phenological responses to warming that differ by plant type (herbaceous versus woody). The work highlights a need for further research and consideration of under-represented belowground phenological changes.

Huiying Liu
Madhav P. Thakur

Near-term transition and longer-term physical climate risks of greenhouse gas emissions pathways

There is a balance in mitigation pathway design between economic transition cost and physical climate threats. This study provides a comprehensive framework to assess the near- and long-term risks under various warming scenarios globally and in particular regions.

Ajay Gambhir
Seth Monteith

Hysteresis of the intertropical convergence zone to CO 2 forcing

In idealized model experiments where CO 2 increases four-fold before returning to its original level, temperature and precipitation show almost linear responses to CO 2 forcing. In contrast, the response of the Intertropical Convergence Zone lags behind CO 2 changes, associated with delayed energy exchanges.

Jong-Seong Kug
Jongsoo Shin

Contextualizing cross-national patterns in household climate change adaptation

The context and motivation around adaptation are influenced by local culture and institutions. In the United States, China, Indonesia and the Netherlands, some factors (such as perceived costs) have similar influences on household adaptation to flooding, but others (such as flood experience) differ between countries.

Brayton Noll
Tatiana Filatova
Alessandro Taberna

Ocean warming and accelerating Southern Ocean zonal flow

The remoteness and paucity of historic observations of the Southern Ocean limit understanding of the effects of climate change on circulation. Using observations, CMIP6 and eddy-resolving models, this Article shows that acceleration of its zonal flow emerged in recent decades as a result of uneven ocean warming.

Jia-Rui Shi
Lynne D. Talley

Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot

Current emissions scenarios include pathways that overshoot the temperature goals set out in the Paris Agreement and rely on future net negative emissions. Limiting overshoot would require near-term investment but would result in longer-term economic benefit.

Keywan Riahi
Christoph Bertram
Behnam Zakeri

Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change

Mitigation pathways allowing for temperature overshoot often ignore the related climate and macroeconomic impacts. Net-zero pathways with limited overshoot could reduce low-probability high-consequence risks and economic loss.

Laurent Drouet
Valentina Bosetti
Massimo Tavoni

Health co-benefits of climate change mitigation depend on strategic power plant retirements and pollution controls

Climate mitigation policies often provide health co-benefits. Analysis of individual power plants under future climate–energy policy scenarios shows reducing air pollution-related deaths does not automatically align with emission reduction policies and that policy design needs to consider public health.

Guannan Geng
Steven J. Davis

Climate action with revenue recycling has benefits for poverty, inequality and well-being

Climate policy analyses often ignore the possibility of progressive redistribution of carbon tax revenues and assume that mitigation cost will burden the poor in the short term. Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) estimation suggests such redistribution could reduce inequality, alleviate poverty and increase well-being globally.

Mark Budolfson
Francis Dennig
Stéphane Zuber

Observed increases in extreme fire weather driven by atmospheric humidity and temperature

Climate change has led to increased fire activity in parts of the globe due to observed increases in fire weather extremes. These trends are driven predominantly by decreasing relative humidity and increasing temperature.

Piyush Jain
Dante Castellanos-Acuna
Mike D. Flannigan

Climate and land-use changes reduce the benefits of terrestrial protected areas

The authors project future rates of temporal and spatial displacement of climate and land-use in protected areas (PAs), and show that more than one-quarter of the world’s PAs are highly threatened, with particular risk to PAs across tropical moist and grassland biomes.

Ernest F. Asamoah
Linda J. Beaumont
Joseph M. Maina

Demand-side solutions to climate change mitigation consistent with high levels of well-being

Evaluation of mitigation actions often focuses on cost and overlooks the direct effects on well-being. This work shows demand-side measures have large mitigation potential and beneficial effects on well-being outcomes.

Felix Creutzig
Leila Niamir
Diana Ürge-Vorsatz

A multi-model analysis of long-term emissions and warming implications of current mitigation efforts

Mitigation pathways tend to focus on an end temperature target and calculate how to keep within these bounds. This work uses seven integrated assessment models to consider current mitigation efforts and project likely temperature trajectories.

Ida Sognnaes
Glen P. Peters

Risk transfer policies and climate-induced immobility among smallholder farmers

Smallholder farmers will be impacted substantially by climate change and need to adapt. Agent-based modelling shows that interventions, particularly cash transfer paired with risk transfer mechanisms, lead to increased migration and uptake of cash crops, with higher income and lower inequality.

Nicolas Choquette-Levy
Matthias Wildemeersch
Simon A. Levin

Climatic limit for agriculture in Brazil

Soybean and maize yields in the Amazon-Cerrado region of Brazil are dependent on water from rain. Warming and drying will make the climate less suitable for agricultural production; changes have already moved 28% of croplands out of their optimum climate space.

Ludmila Rattis
Paulo M. Brando
Michael T. Coe

Anthropogenic emissions and urbanization increase risk of compound hot extremes in cities

Heat extremes threaten the health of urban residents with particularly strong impacts from day–night sustained heat. Observation and simulation data across eastern China show increasing risks of compound events attributed to anthropogenic emissions and urbanization.

A systematic global stocktake of evidence on human adaptation to climate change

Determining progress in adaptation to climate change is challenging, yet critical as climate change impacts increase. A stocktake of the scientific literature on implemented adaptation now shows that adaptation is mostly fragmented and incremental, with evidence lacking for its impact on reducing risk.

Lea Berrang-Ford
A. R. Siders
Thelma Zulfawu Abu

Threatened salmon rely on a rare life history strategy in a warming landscape

Highlighting the importance of rare phenotypes in population persistence, the authors show that spring-run Chinook salmon late-migrant juveniles were critical for cohort success in drought and ocean heatwave years. Combined further warming and impassable dams threaten these late migrants’ survival.

F. Cordoleani
C. C. Phillis
R. C. Johnson

Impact of high-speed rail on road traffic and greenhouse gas emissions

Intercity high-speed rail (HSR) can have large climate benefits with its high energy efficiency. This study explores the substitution effects of HSR on road traffic in China, which can be translated to an annual reduction of 14.76 million tons of CO 2 -equivalent emissions.

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