how will be india in 2050 essay

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Indian economy by 2050: In pursuit to achieve the $30 trillion mark

EY India Chief Policy Advisor

A noted economist, D.K. Srivastava is an Honorary Professor at Madras School of Economics and Member of the Advisory Council to the 15th Finance Commission.

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Economy watch - august 2022, india to reach us$5, 10, 20 and 30 trillion by fy27, fy34, fy43 and fy48, respectively..

• The UN World Population Prospects 2022 projects India to have the largest population by 2023.
• As per OECD’s baseline projections, India would overtake the US to become the second largest economy in terms of size of GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms by the late 2040s. 
• However, with suitable supporting policies and altering some of the OECD assumptions, India’s GDP growth path may be modified with a view to taking better advantage of the unfolding population trends.

From population to output

I n the assessment of India’s growth potential, one key determinant as well as an important objective variable is the availability of human resources, which pertains to the size and growth in the working age population of India. The potential contribution of the growing population to India’s GDP growth would depend, among other factors, on the rate of growth and size of total population and its contribution to the size of working age population who may be absorbed in productive employment. It would also depend on increase in labor productivity and the impact of rising per-capita income on savings and capital formation. The working age population is estimated to decline at a rate lower than that of total population. Even as working age population declines over time, its adverse impact on potential growth rate can be overcome by its higher rate of absorption in productive employment and an increase in productivity. Absorption in productive employment and increase in labor productivity would depend an increase in the employment elasticity of output and higher investment in human capital, requiring a significant augmentation of education and health expenditures.

Future share and size of the Indian economy: alternative scenarios

The OECD focuses on projecting the potential or trend output growth based on a long-term model in which the key determinants of growth include growth of capital stock and its productivity, growth of labor force and its productivity, and the pace of technological progress (Guillemette and Turner, 2018; Johansson A. et al., 2013; OECD, 2014) 1 .

Table 1 below gives the estimated growth rates for a selected group of countries in the OECD baseline scenario. In the case of world, China, India and the US, average growth rates progressively fall, decade after decade, although the rate of this decline slows after the 2030s. The main reason for the falling growth rates is the declining marginal productivity of capital and reduced contribution of the technological progress. 

As compared to the average growth rates given in Table 1 for India, we work on alternative growth paths for India, leaving projections for other countries as per the OECD baseline scenario (Table 2). However, the world growth and India’s share in world output changes with each simulation as the share of India in world output increases. In the initial period covering 2022 to 2025 (FY23 to FY26 for India), we have taken a lower average growth for India as compared to the OECD projections based on more recent information (RBI Monetary Policy Review, August 2022 and IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2022).

However, 2026 (FY27) onwards, in each of the three simulations (S1, S2, and S3), there may be a slight increase in India’s assessed average growth as compared to the OECD baseline scenario. This is dependent on India taking fuller advantage of the population growth trends, which results in both increased rate of accumulation of capital stock and increased employment. If India is able to follow suitable growth-supporting policies, its average five-year growth rates would turn out to be higher than those projected by the OECD, especially in the latter decades. However, in each scenario, average five-year growth rates continue to fall, similar to the trend in the OECD baseline scenario. Thus, in the most optimistic scenario (S3), the average growth rate in the 2050s is 4.9% each in the two five-year blocks as compared to the OECD projections of 2.4% and 2.3%, respectively. 

Based on these projections, we can work out the size of the Indian economy in market exchange rate and PPP terms as well as the share of the Indian economy in global GDP. Chart 1 below shows the evolving size of the Indian economy in both market exchange rate and PPP terms. In Market exchange rates terms, the Indian economy would cross the thresholds of US$5, 10, 20 and 30 trillion in FY27, FY34, FY43 and FY48, respectively. We expect that by FY48, in PPP terms, India’s GDP may reach the US$40 trillion mark. Consistent with this scenario (S2), the share of India in world GDP is shown in below Chart 2. By 2047 (FY48 for India), India’s share may increase to 19.6%.

Accordingly, India’s per capita GDP which is almost 50% of the world per capita GDP in PPP terms currently (FY22 and FY23) would catch up to the world level by the early 2040s. This would become 1.5 times the world per capita GDP by 2057 (FY58) under S2.

Indian economy: the long picture

We take a long-term view of India’s trend growth rate based on actual growth and estimated potential growth covering a period of more than 100 years from 1951-52 to 2059-60. Growth numbers 2022-23 onwards are based on simulations under alternative assumptions, referred to as S1, S2 and S3. In this long history two major dips occur in 1972-73 and more recently, in 2020-21 pertaining to the year affected by the COVID-19 shock. In the historical period there was a peak in trend growth in 1958-59 and then in 2008-09. In the projection period, in all simulations, a peak in the trend growth rate of close to 7% is reached by 2029-30 after which there is a steady decline just as in the case of OECD projections where growth rate falls for most countries in the long run due to a fall in the contribution of capital stock to growth, among other factors.

Determining policy priorities

The following policy measures may be critical to sustain India’s growth:

• There is a need to increase the size of government expenditure relative to GDP for which augmenting the combined tax-GDP ratio is a pre-requisite. Further, there should be an increase in the share of combined expenditure on education to 6% of GDP and on health to 3% by the mid-2030s, rising subsequently to about 5%.
• Alongside, adherence to fiscal responsibility may facilitate higher emphasis on infrastructure investment. Further, the fiscal policy should also ensure a balance on the combined government revenue accounts and utilization of the entire capital receipts, including fiscal deficit for capital expenditure.
• Female workforce participation rate in India is still comparatively low. As per International Labour Organization (ILO) data, India’s female labor force participation rate has been declining in recent years. The ILO has estimated this rate to be as low as 18.6% in 2020. Emphasis on female education and health may help tangibly increase their participation in productive activities.
• Emphasis on better health provisions may enable an increase in the number of working years for India’s gradually rising old age population.
• Investment in education and technological skills would accelerate adoption of global technologies in India, thereby augmenting the contribution of technological progress to growth.
• A virtuous cycle of higher per capita income, lower dependency ratio, and higher female earnings in the family may facilitate higher savings and investment, and thereby growth.
• Overall, employment intensity of output needs to be increased. To some extent, this would be facilitated by the relatively higher growth of the services sector, which tends to be more employment intensive.

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Show article references#Hide article references

• Guillemette, Y. and D. Turner (2018), " The Long View: Scenarios for the World Economy to 2060 ",  OECD Economic Policy Papers , No. 22, OECD Publishing, Paris; OECD (2014), “Growth Prospects and Fiscal Requirements over the Long Term”, in  OECD Economic Outlook , Volume 2014 Issue 1 , OECD Publishing, Paris; Johansson Å. et al. (2013), “ Long-Term Growth Scenarios ”,  OECD Economics Department Working Papers , No. 1000, OECD Publishing, Paris

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India needs several supporting government policies to become the second largest economy in PPP terms by 2040. Increasing the size of government expenditure relative to GDP and prioritizing public expenditure on education, health and physical infrastructure are key steps that the government can take in this regard.

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India Vision 2050

This paper presents a Vision of a developed India in 2050. Two objectives drive this vision. One is fast catch-up growth that closes the gap with countries which were at the same stage of development as India in the 1960s & 1970s but have moved ahead since then. An understanding and utilization of global & domestic trends is critical to fast growth, which can be used by Indian government and its people to leapfrog to a better life. The second is equality of opportunity for every Indian citizen based on personal motivation & inherent capabilities. Equal access to quality education, skills, public goods, social and governance services is critical to both these objectives. Provision of social services to 1.6 billion Indians, at the quality available to 1.3 billion citizens of the Developed countries, is only possible in 30 years through comprehensive use of digital systems like e-governance, e-learning, tele- medicine, and artificial intelligence. We envision a Hybrid architecture which marries India’s vast human resources to a pervasive digital infrastructure to accelerate structural transformation and inclusive growth. Government will ensure the provision of hard & soft infrastructure to every habitation in India, develop a policy structure that creates competitive markets in which private entrepreneurs can innovate and thrive, and a welfare system that protects the weak & vulnerable while giving ample scope for civil society to provide a multiplicity of non-marketable services. The key policy & institutional reforms required are also discussed.

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Indian Economy News

India will be 3rd-largest economy by 2050: lancet.

• October 12, 2020

After China and the US, India will become the world's third largest economy by 2050, a report published in Lancet said. When India was the seventh largest economy, the paper took 2017 as the base year. It said India will move towards being by 2030 the fourth largest economy and by 2050 the third largest. Now, India is the world's fifth largest economy.

The research published in the medical journal reported that, in 2100, India would hold the same role. The result was obtained by converting the countries' working-age population into GDP scenarios.

Although there would be a big decrease in the working-age population in China and India, the paper said, the latter would continue to hold the top spot. In countries like Nigeria, there will be a rise in the working-age population. By 2100, India, followed by Nigeria, China, and the USA, was forecast to still have the world's largest working-age population. Despite fertility rates lower than the replacement level, immigration retained the US workforce in our reference scenario, it said.

Owing to a rise in immigration, countries such as Australia and Israel will increase in global rankings by GDP. Japan, which is also expected to see a sharp decrease in the working-age population, will remain the world's fourth-largest economy by 2100.

The paper claimed that the rate of decline in fertility and slow population growth would be increased by access to contraceptives and continuing trends in female educational achievement. "In many countries, including China and India, a sustained TFR (total fertility rate) lower than the replacement level will have economic, social, environmental and geopolitical implications. Policy options would be critical in the years to come to adjust to continued low fertility, while preserving and improving female reproductive health."

India has comparable aspirations, too. By 2025, the Modi government plans to put India's economy to $5 trillion. The coronavirus pandemic and the resulting lockdown, however, have thrown a spanner into the works. India was facing an economic downturn well before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Disclaimer: This information has been collected through secondary research and IBEF is not responsible for any errors in the same.

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India’s Transformation Through to 2040 Overview of the Metrics of Industrial India vs. Information Age India

In 1991, India opened its economy to the rest of the world and reversed decades of slow and insular growth implementing a series of far-ranging reforms. There have been ups and downs in the years since; today however, a little over 25 years later, the effects of this liberalisation are clearly visible with India enjoying an increasingly vibrant domestic economy, a large and rapidly growing middle class, significant foreign investment inflows, and a high degree of political stability. Following one of the down swings, recent changes by the current administration have recovered some of the economic losses of the previous one and placed the India story back on the agenda of international investors. As the fastest growing and currently sixth largest economy in the world, India appears set to become a top three global economy and a middle-income country over the next c.25 years. This economic growth is set to transform the country, its society and its place in the world, creating a prosperous democracy of 1.4bn with a diversified and globalised economy. This month’s Sign of the Times plots India’s projected journey through to 2040 across five key economic and social metrics, benchmarking the country’s transformation to a series of global comparisons.

It is important to keep in mind though that while the direction of development appears set, India’s rate of development is by no means locked in yet. The country today certainly seems to have built significant momentum supported by positive macro-economic indicators but the journey to 2040 is still set to have the challenges one should expect from so large and diverse an economy. In today’s shifting world, many of the well-trodden development paths previously followed by others will likely not be available to India and the country is likely to face fierce competition from global powers such as China and potentially the United States, too. India’s big choice is whether if embarks on an industrial path, much like China, or a different one, more fit for service and knowledge era that is emerging. If it succeeds in its development path, the India that emerges in by 2040 will be like no other country the world has ever seen and a potential benchmark for free, open and equitable development and wealth creation for other to follow.

India’s Journey to 2040

What will India look like in 2040? Barring a catastrophic event on a near global scale, a number of factors in India’s development story appear to be fixed: India’s population will continue to growth and continue to be the world’s largest. India’s demographics appear to be equally fixed. Over the next two decades, the country will have the world’s largest working age population – 1.1.bn people –and as a result, its dependency ratio will continue to drop (reflecting a continuing trend in the size of the workforce relative to the number of dependents). And India’s landmass and its “If it succeeds in its development path, the India that emerges by 2040 will be like no other country the world has ever seen and a potential benchmark for free, open and equitable development and wealth creation for other to follow.” economic potential are likely to be equally fixed. These are the factors upon which India will write its economic story over the next two decades, fundamentally transforming the country as a result. However, despite these factors, the rate and shape of India’s economic development is not yet set in stone and depends on a series of choices by its leaders and its people, as highlighted in a previous Sign of the Times. If India is successful in harnessing its potential, its journey promises to take it to middle income levels by or around 2040. As India’s economy continues to expand to that of a middle-income country and its society continues to evolve accordingly, it will face a shifting set of challenges and how well it meets these can be measured in terms of its wealth, education, capital formation, quality of infrastructure and global economic influence. These five metrics serve to illustrate the magnitude of change that India will potentially undergo over the next 20-25 years. They will also provide an indication over time of whether India achieves balanced development and determine what type country India will be in 2040. The nature of that balance is as follows:

At one end of the spectrum, India would become a scaled industrial-era economic giant. China is that kind of giant and is the benchmark of how to rapidly execute using scale as the objective. The speed with which China achieved this provided for a rise from a basic agricultural, communist economy to a rising industrial power. At the other end of the spectrum is the opportunity to create an entirely new model, more fit for the next phase of post-industrial knowledge based smart economy, and one that China itself is currently struggling with. India today, by choice or necessity, is clearly struggling to achieve the former aspect of each metric. Its development challenge going forward therefore is a complex and sophisticated one: since it cannot be an mass industrial power to compete with China, can it be a mass knowledge and service based one? If it can, it will be an exemplar of the broader global transition from the industrial age to the information age. If not, it will be doomed to be in the shadow of the giant across the Himalayas.

1. Wealth: Nominal GDP

India’s Challenge. India’s rapid economic development is setting it on a course to middle income country status over the next 20-something years. On an absolute basis, this means that India is charting a course to become the world’s third largest economy in nominal terms over the course of the next decade. However, this will require sustained high rates of GDP growth beyond the initial push currently underway with balanced economic development en route. More important to India as a nation than absolute GDP though is perhaps the growth in GDP/capita, which will determine the wealth and well-being of its 1.5bn citizens in 2040.

The Path Ahead. On an absolute basis, India is set to quickly overtake the European G7 economies and Japan too around 2030. On a relative per capita basis, Indian GDP will quickly catch up to the current levels of other populous countries undergoing rapid development like Vietnam by as early as 2020, despite housing 1/6 of the world’s population and then continue to expand more gradually to reach middle income levels.

The Destination in 2040. By 2040, Indian GDP will have tripled from its current level and the country will be the world’s third largest economy by a sizeable margin, comparable in size to China today, and securely ensconced as a middle-income country in terms of GDP/Capita. The transformative impact on India of this development will be substantial – with GDP/Capita being closely linked with other indicators that measure the social, economic, and environmental well-being of the country and its people.

2. Education: Higher Education College Degrees

India’s Challenge. India’s education system today churns out over 7m university graduates per year, leading the world in absolute terms but lagging far behind developed countries relatively given India’s population. India has been expanding university enrolment by 5% annually since 2010 and its tertiary education sector will need to continue to scale rapidly if it is to appropriately educate its youth and create a labour force with longer term relevance in the information age.

The Path Ahead. India’s college enrolment rates today are comparable to that of other less developed countries facing demographic challenges in the form of growing young populations such as Mexico. If India were to successfully address the shortages in infrastructure and teaching resources the country currently faces, it would reach graduation rates comparable to those of Mediterranean countries such as Greece or Portugal, both EU members, by the end of the next decade, and continue to expand further thereafter.

India in 2040. . If India can successfully expand access to tertiary education in a sustained fashion, university graduation rates in 2040 could match those of France today, one of the world’s leading industrialised economies. This would imply a more than doubling of the university graduates among 25 to 34-year olds in India, surpassing the 100m mark. Executing and funding such an expansion of higher education in India will of course be a challenge: at 3% of GDP or c.$63bn, India’s central government’s annual education spending per student is only about US$48, compared with US$940 per student in China and an OECD average of US$9,000.

3. Quality of Infrastructure: Smart Infrastructure

India’s Challenge. With over 200m people moving from rural to urban areas by 2040 India will need to both upgrade existing cities as well as build entirely new urban environments to adequately house and enable the livelihoods and security of its citizens. Importantly, India’s existing cities will need to be redesigned for high density living with mass-transit solutions, a smaller environmental footprint and digital connectivity to ensure that cities remain important drivers of sustainable economic growth

The Path Ahead. India’s urbanisation rate is currently at the level of African countries like Zimbabwe or Mozambique, but growing by 10m people annually. Given the sheer size of the population and its ongoing growth, even with these significant inflows India’s urbanisation rate will only creep up slowly through 2040, when it will reach the levels achieved by China c.2005. The growth and adoption of digital technology on the other hand has the potential to grow much more rapidly, with the use of tech enabled mobility services growing fivefold over the same period, enabling the more efficient use of urban transportation infrastructure.

India in 2040. By 2040, well over half of India’s population will still be rural, but the fate of its 650m urban residents will depend on India’s ability to deploy smart infrastructure solutions. If India goes for low cost ‘basic’ infrastructure to quickly absorb rising urban populations, the transportation, slum-ification and environmental challenges facing its metro areas today are due to grow explosively. The solution for India needs to leverage technology to combine high density cities with technology to enable sustainability and efficiency

4. Global Economic Influence: Share of World Trade

India’s Challenge. With India’s current share of global trade at just under 2%, the country will clearly need to strengthen its trade links with the rest of the world, both in terms of imports driving development and exports driving wealth creation. India reaching middle income status will require international trade to play a much larger and integrated role in India’s economy than it does today.

The Path Ahead. Having expanded 16.3% during the past year, nearly twice the rate of the economy as a whole, India’s trade will continue to expand faster than GDP: assuming that India’s trade to GDP ratio increases from currently just under 40% to c.50% over time (still remaining below the current global average of 55%), Indian trade, whose total trade today is on par with Singapore’s on an absolute level, will rapidly expand to mimic the importance of that of some of the world’s key trading nations, surpassing Korea in short order and then Japan over the medium term.

India in 2040. India by 2040 has the potential to be a global trading powerhouse, which at 6% share of global trade would rival Germany’s position as a leading global trader, currently second only to China. The share of global trade however say little about the nature of that trade and the trade balance India will develop over time. These factors will be determined by key government policies shaping the nature of India’s industrial development and investment over the next 20-25 years.

5. Share of Global Capital: Inbound and Outbound Investment.

India’s Challenge. Despite India topping the global FDI rankings in 2015. its total stock of FDI is only about the same as Italy’s, a country whose economy is only 75% the size of India’s. The picture is even starker in terms of outbound FDI: India’s outbound investment flows today are similar to Poland’s, a country whose economy is less than a quarter the size of India’s today. India will clearly need to significantly scale inbound and bound investments for both global influence and development resources.

The Path Ahead. If India maintains current inflow rates it h can accumulate transformational levels of foreign investment, surpassing Russia by 2020 and Germany by 2030. Further, if Indian outbound FDI relative to GDP can gradually increase to reach average OECD levels over the next 20-25 years, India will quickly overtake smaller active overseas investors such as Taiwan to eventually surpass G7 economies like France.

India in 2040. India in 2040 has the potential to be an investing powerhouse, both as destination for international capital and as a source of it, reaching the absolute level of foreign capital stock that China enjoys today. In terms of outbound FDI, India in 2040 could match Japan in terms of annual flows, providing it with significant global economic and political influence as a result.

India’s Trajectory - What it Means

Analysis. The analysis of India’s potential trajectory implies a number of key macro-developments and trends:

• 3x in economic output - Total growth of 3x in economic output translates into the 3rd largest economy in the world by 2040
• 22% increase in higher education - Expanding higher education enrolment rates by 22% higher education creates 112m college graduates between now and 2040, the largest number by country in the world by a factor of 1.3x
• US$1,500bn investment in infrastructure - US$1,500bn investment in infrastructure creates a further ten cities the size of Mumbai by 2040, each with populations of 23m
• US$1,332tn of FDI and FII - US$1,332tn of FDI and FII attraction into India extrapolated over 23 years makes for India’s share of global inbound FDI stock to double by 2040
• US$115bn increase in FDI outflows - Increasing FDI outflows to US$115bn by 2040 would make India the 4th largest overseas foreign investor globally
• 5.8% share of global trade - Growing its share of global trade from currently 2.3% to 5.8% by 2040 would make India the world’s second largest trading nation, behind China

Insights. The metrics and analysis above put into sharp focus the scale of the transformation India is facing and the high rates of prolonged change that it will need to manage, leading to the following insights on India’s trajectory:

• Growth Model Choice Upfront. Sustained and high rate macro-economic growth is critical for India to achieve any of the projected forecasts laid out above, implying the need for India to get the growth model right from the outset and to continue to optimise it further as it progresses
• Not China If India follows China’s lead in terms of the speed and scale of building out standard infrastructure it will build some great show-pieces, many ghost towns and empty highways that will sit idle for a decade or more before they are efficiently utilised, and a significant stock of low quality infrastructure, particularly in housing, that will degrade rapidly and need to be replaced within a few decades.
• Non-Exports Dependency. Export driven growth is a tried and tested development path for newly industrialised and developing nations, although India has not learned how to navigate this path well yet, other than for IT services and business outsourcing
• Mass Trader-Entrepreneurial Capitalism India’s model of capitalism will likely need to be a “mass trader” model, where high profile large corporations are evenly balanced by the volume of small entrepreneurs, providing for a reasonably equitably spread mass rise in prosperity
• Foreign Capital Partnership Key India’s growth trajectory will require foreign capital inflows to sustain it for at least 15 years before it is potentially self-sustaining, making the country’s FDI strategy critical to starting and building growth.
• Imperative for First Rate Successive Political Leadership India’s transformative development will require its leadership quickly implementing a next wave of economic, political and financial reforms that dwarf the efforts of India’s leaders during the first five years of BJP rule (see inset above). India’s legal system, financial and regulatory institutions and bureaucracy will need to provide the continuity. But there is no escaping the need for high quality political leaders to emerge from the 1.3-1.6 billion of India.

The trajectory of the transformation that India is undergoing is set to reshape its cities, its workforce and its society, reshaping what is today a developing country into a scaled giant that is both an economic superpower in terms of absolute geo-economic clout and a middle-income nation comparable to advanced economies today in terms of relative development. The benchmarking analysis below highlights the scope of the transformation India will undergo on the on road to 2040 in terms of comparable countries.

Conclusion: India’s Trajectory - Foresights

The opportunity and the daunting challenge for India is that given its size and unprecedented scale, existing models of development will likely prove inadequate for India’s needs. If India were to follow China’s model, it would create another scaled industrial-era economic giant in the mould of its predecessor and with its own issues: this would imply an India that scaled but with highly uneven wealth distribution, an India that is mass-educated but not with a workforce that is suited to meet the challenges of a post-industrial era, an India that has scaled infrastructure rapidly, but finding that “At one end of the spectrum, India would become a scaled industrial-era economic giant, like China, and at the other end is the opportunity to create an entirely new model, more fit for the next phase of post-industrial knowledge based smart economy” it already needs to replace much of what it’d built already, and an India that has scale in global trade, although focused on volume and bulk over value-add. Even if India were inclined to follow the model that transformed China over the past 30 years, the state-driven economy and outcomes are better suited to authoritarian decision-making processes than to a diverse democracy like India’s. The country’s unique position and growth therefore suggest that it will need to develop a different model. With the benefit of foresight (!), the key features that define the model for India in the future include:

• Open Democracy. India has the advantage of being a peaceful and pluralistic democracy, providing an outlet for protest and a correction mechanism for government actions, both of which create runway in terms of time for the country to manage the rise of prosperity
• Open Education. India cannot physically open enough schools and universities to provide adequate educate education for its 1.5 billion people by 2040 and so it will necessarily have to adopt technology solutions alongside a radical approach to entrepreneurial entry into a traditionally this protected sector, while ensuring continuing affordability for the country’s masses.
• Open Information Edge. China will not be standing still during this time. Indeed, it will be working hard to make the transition from an industrial society to an information and services one and with nine of the top 20 internet companies by value today being Chinese it has already created scale, if not necessarily sophistication. Whether China can create this sophistication likely comes down to whether the government has the confidence to reverse its policies and open China’s information and communications up freely to its people. While India will surely face competition from China along the way, its path as an open society with free information flows will be quite different from China’s
• Urban Density, ‘Blade Runner’-like. India’s density of population coupled with the existence of property rights and citizens keen to enforce them lends itself to the country modelling its major cities on templates like Tokyo rather than Beijing - density and complexity rather than structural show-pieces - hence its choice of Japan as a strategic ally makes sense on many fronts.
• India Wide Open. While export driven growth is well trodden model (as outlined above), trade is becoming increasingly complicated due to protectionism and so the model may not be available in the way it was during the industrial growth phases of Japan, the Asian Tigers and most recently China. India will need to be wide open to talent, intellectual property, investment and all manner of foreign enterprise to co-opt them into building India.
• Hyper-Scale Mass Consumerism. India is set to have 1.6bn people by 2050, the biggest mass consumer population in the world. It’s domestic consumption driven economy could reach self-sustaining levels shortly after 2030, at which point in time its dependence on foreign capital should decline, if not disappear. The value of the India consumer at that point in time will attract more and more capital, both foreign and domestic, driving the economy to greater heights.
• Digital Platforms for Everything Possible. India cannot open enough physical banks, malls, schools and universities to provide for its people. For example, it will need to educate 1.X billion people by 2030. India will necessarily have to adopt technology solutions alongside a radical approach to entrepreneurial entry into every traditionally protected sector, while ensuring continuing affordability for the country’s masses.
• America-India-China Axis. America is leading the global transformation race to the information age, with five of the ten largest companies in the world by market cap being US technology companies. At the same time, the country is facing a growing populist resistance to this change, seeking to bring back manufacturing jobs and reverse the globalisation that has put America on top today. As America’s biggest geo-political and geo-economic competitor will be China, US policy towards India will likely sway back and forth between supporting India as a counterweight to competing fiercely with it to prevent its further rise.

A growth model that recognised these factors and harnesses India’s advantages would lead to a very different middle-income country to the one China is emerging as. This India of 2040 would be service and knowledge oriented, relatively highly educated, productive and wealth generating, while enjoying a level of prosperity and material well- being “India delivering on both counts will deliver it tremendous soft-power benefits, making it an attractive partner for like-minded countries and a role-model for countries further behind and in need to develop their own development path.” previously not witnessed in any country with population size. It would be a leader in key emerging technologies that are relevant internationally such as data, finance and healthcare, which it would have deployed at scale, as well as a global engine of the mass-knowledge economy for the world, exporting services and intellectual property to the rest of the world. More importantly, achieving this transformation while adhering to the principles of democracy and free speech will ensure that this future India remains an open and free society that allows the free flow of goods, services, people and information in a manner that creates ongoing and long-term sustainable growth.

India’s status as a democracy will have a significant impact on the rest of the world when it emerges as the world’s largest middle-income economy. China’s unprecedented to date economic rise has led many to question whether democracy and freedom were compatible with scaled and sustained economic growth, just as China’s statist capitalist model has led others to question the continued relevance of free markets and free trade. India delivering on both counts will deliver it tremendous soft-power benefits, making it an attractive partner for like-minded countries and a role-model for countries further behind and in need to develop their own development path. Demonstrating a willingness to open its economy to the rest of the world through trade and investment, particularly at a time when the two leading economic superpowers - the United States and China - appear to be headed towards protectionism and at least in America’s case, a withdrawal from the multilateral economic and trade order, would send a powerful message to the rest of the world, and leave India well positioned to chart and execute a course to increasing global influence and greater leadership roles. The opportunity and the challenge would daunt almost any of today’s world leaders and will demand something extraordinary from India’s current and future leaders.

1.      See the May 2017 Sign of the Times: 12 Certainties Transforming India through 2025

2.      OECD, India Union Budget

3.      “Blade Runner” is a 1982 science fiction film with acclaimed set design, set in a future Los Angeles with a highly built-up and dense urban environment 

4.      See the May 2013 Sign of the Times: India Wide Open

5.      See appendix for definitions and sources

2024: The Year that Saves Democracy?

The Shape of 2024: Setting the Trajectory for the World’s Transition

Artificial Intelligence: From Slave to Master

The Consequences of Local Conflicts on Global Stability

Capital as a Force for Good: Solving the SDG Gap

India’s G20 Presidency Spotlighted the Drivers of its Growth Engine

The Technology Roadmap for A Better World

The Fight Against Poverty Must be Rebooted

The Asian Half Century, Challenging Great Powers

India’s US$50 Trillion Value Creation Opportunity

India-Russia Relations The War in Ukraine and Asia’s Rising Superpower

Scenarios and Potential Choices Facing the World as Climate Change Accelerates

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Is India the World’s Next Great Economic Power?

• Bhaskar Chakravorti
• Gaurav Dalmia

Historically, the country’s expected rise has remained elusive. Here’s a look at what’s different now.

Is India’s economic rise inevitable? There’s good reason to think that this latest round of Indo-optimism might be different than previous iterations, but the country still has major challenges to address to make good on this promise. In terms of drivers, demand — in the form of a consumer boom, context appropriate innovation, and a green transition — and supply — in the form of a demographic dividend, access to finance, and major infrastructure upgrades — are helping to push the country forward. This is facilitated by policy reforms, geopolitical positioning, and a diaspora dividend. Even so, the country faces barriers to success, including unbalanced growth, unrealized demographic potential, and unrealized ease-of-business and innovation potential.

In 2002, India’s government launched a ubiquitous international tourism campaign known as “Incredible India.” Were it to launch a similar campaign today, it might as well be called “Inevitable India.” Not just enthusiasts within the country, but a chorus of global analysts, have declared India as the next great economic power: Goldman Sachs has predicted it will become the world’s second-largest economy by 2075, and the FT’s Martin Wolf suggests that by 2050, its purchasing power will be 30% larger than that of the U.S.

• Bhaskar Chakravorti is the Dean of Global Business at The Fletcher School at Tufts University and founding Executive Director of Fletcher’s Institute for Business in the Global Context . He is the author of The Slow Pace of Fast Change .
• Gaurav Dalmia is the Chairman of Dalmia Group Holdings, an Indian holding company for business and financial assets.

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Decarbonising India: Charting a pathway for sustainable growth

At COP26, India announced its ambition to become a net-zero emitter by 2070—an important milestone in the fight against climate change. Despite low per-capita emissions (1.8 tons CO 2 ), India is the third-largest emitter globally, emitting a net 2.9 gigatons of carbon-dioxide equivalent (GtCO 2 e) every year as of 2019. The bulk of these emissions (about 70 percent) are driven by six sectors: power, steel, automotive, aviation, cement, and agriculture.

In this report, we propose more than 100 decarbonisation levers across these key sectors and take a deeper look at four cross-cutting decarbonisation opportunities: green hydrogen; carbon capture, usage, and storage (CCUS); natural climate solutions; and material circularity. We modeled outcomes on India’s net-zero journey along two scenarios: first, the current line-of-sight (LoS) scenario with current (and announced) policies and foreseeable technology adoption; and second, the accelerated scenario with far-reaching polices like carbon pricing and accelerated technology adoption, including technologies like CCUS. Our analysis shows that the benefits of a well-planned, orderly, accelerated transition could outweigh the downsides, given India’s growth outlook.

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India has the potential to create 287 gigatons of carbon space for the world. This amounts to almost half of the global carbon budget for an even chance at limiting warming to 1.5°C. The current pace of emissions intensity reduction is insufficient for India’s emissions curve to bend with the expected growth outlook. In the LoS scenario, India could reduce annual emissions from a historical trajectory of 11.8 GtCO 2 e to 1.9 GtCO 2 e by 2070, a 90 percent reduction in economic emissions intensity compared with 2019. It can reach 0.4 GtCO 2 e by 2050 in the accelerated scenario (Exhibit 1), with a potential to get to its net-zero-by-2070 commitment through new technology developments (such as direct air capture) over the next few decades.

LoS scenario reductions are challenging, and the accelerated scenario reductions even more so. There are emerging tailwinds in the form of reducing costs of renewables and electric vehicles (EVs), and the progressive policies being implemented (for example, the implicit carbon tax on transportation fuels of $140 to $240/ton CO 2 e) are helping the electrification of mobility. Yet, several other actions with significant scale-up potential are needed (Exhibit 2). For example: renewable capacity addition needs to increase from ten gigawatts (GW) to 40–50 GW per year; a hydrogen cost reduction and carbon price of $50/ton CO 2 is needed by 2030 to make green steel competitive (could lead to 211 metric tons (Mt) of steel capacity being built on the low-carbon hydrogen route instead of the coal route by 2045); battery costs have to decline by 40 percent by 2030 and green hydrogen by two-thirds by 2035; a nationwide rollout of charging infrastructure is needed; farmers have to adopt new practices for rice cultivation; targets for circularity have to be met and higher targets set.

Eight important messages underlie this report. Read and download the executive summary.

There is an urgency to prepare India for an orderly and accelerated decarbonisation within the current decade. Over three-fourths of the India of 2050 (and 80-plus percent of the India of 2070) is yet to be built. Developing this robust infrastructure in India will multiply demand across sectors: power (eightfold), steel (eightfold), cement (threefold), auto (threefold), and food (twofold). If policies are set in place to create the right demand signals within this decade, then India could add low-carbon capacities in the next two decades thereafter. For example, a carbon price of $50 per Mt by 2030 makes green steel competitive (could lead to 211 Mt of steel capacity being built on the low-carbon hydrogen route instead of the coal blast furnace route by 2045).

India benefits from an orderly transition. India’s transition from thermal power to renewables is expected to decrease the average cost of power supply from INR 6.15 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in financial year 2020 to INR 5.25 per kWh and INR 5.4 per kWh by 2050 in the LoS and accelerated scenarios, respectively (Exhibit 3). 1 Full system cost of power including costs (factoring in reasonable returns and system losses) for generation, transmission, and distribution. The corresponding cost of power generation is INR 3.9 per kilowatt-hour. Sustainable-farming practices could help generate additional farmer income of INR 3,400 per hectare/year in the LoS scenario, which could increase to INR 4,800 per hectare/year in the accelerated scenario. India may save a cumulative $1.7 trillion in the foreign exchange, which may otherwise be spent on energy imports until 2070. In addition, India will have the opportunity to build itself right the first time, minimizing asset stranding. Finally, if India can start manufacturing in newer technologies, it has the potential to be a world leader in batteries, electrolyzers, green steel, and other areas.

Energy system shifts. Fossil fuels, which comprise 75 percent of India’s commercial energy mix today, decline to one-half in the LoS scenario and to one-sixth in the accelerated scenario by 2050 (Exhibit 4). In the accelerated scenario, over 60 percent of India’s refining capacity, 90 percent of its coal mining capacity, and 100 percent of its coal power generation would not be needed. Tax collections from auto fuel could decline to $36 billion by 2050 (from $85 billion currently). Ensuring resources are used appropriately will be vital. For example, the biomass currently being used by households for cooking, and which in future can be used for thermal-power generation, might potentially need to be directed to hard-to-abate sectors like cement.

Pressure on land systems. In the accelerated scenario, growth and decarbonisation combined may require 45 million more hectares of land than is available, of which nearly ten million hectares would be needed for renewable power and eight million for carbon sinks and forests. Innovative land optimization techniques such as maximizing barren land use for renewable power, vertical urbanization, and improved agricultural productivity would be needed to ensure sufficient land for decarbonisation.

Moderate impact on household spending and jobs. A critical consideration is the impact of the accelerated decarbonisation on Indian household spending and jobs. We estimate that by 2040, the increases in housing costs resulting from decarbonisation would, for the most part, be balanced by the limited impact on food costs (excluding impact on yields from direct climate change) and decrease in the costs of energy and transport, assuming an orderly transition. If the transition is disorderly (that is, if the initiatives are carried out at the wrong time or incorrectly), the economically disadvantaged would suffer a more adverse impact. Accelerated decarbonisation could transform over 30 million jobs (24 million new jobs could be created while six million existing jobs could be lost) by 2050. While important, the scale of workforce reallocation may be smaller than that from other macro trends (for example, 60 million new workers entering the workforce by 2030). That said, specific communities (such as coal mining and associated enterprises in Eastern India) could be adversely impacted, requiring support, reskilling, and alternative industrial development in particular areas.

Large funding needed (3.5–6 percent of GDP), frontloaded, but ‘in the money.’ India may need an estimated $7.2 trillion of green investments until 2050 to decarbonise in the LoS scenario and an additional $4.9 trillion in the accelerated scenario. Fifty percent of the investments needed for abatement between the LoS and the accelerated scenario is in the money, particularly across the renewable-energy, auto, and agriculture sectors; other sectors would likely need policy support from the government. The net spend (capex minus opex) will need to be frontloaded. As an illustration, net of operational savings, $1.8 trillion would be needed from 2030–40 and $600 billion from 2040–50 between the LoS and accelerated scenarios.

All stakeholders need to come together and act now to accelerate India’s decarbonisation. The government could provide policy and regulatory support to make projects across sectors economically viable. These could include providing incentives for the use of EVs and fuel cell EVs by balancing taxation, simplifying regulations for authorizing and installing new power and grid installations, creating demand signals for higher-cost green materials like steel, and generating support for localizing electrolyzer manufacturing. Support would also be required to ensure a just transition that minimizes impact on low-income households. These actions need to happen in the right sequence to avoid energy shortages, price increases, and transition disorderliness.

Achieving technological breakthroughs would require consistent public and private investment. It would also require willingness among business leaders and policy makers to adopt new technologies, for example, long-duration storage technologies to capture seasonality of renewable sources, advancement in fuel cell technology, and improvements in recycling technologies.

Against this backdrop, we propose the following ten actions to accelerate India's decarbonisation:

• Lay out a detailed medium-term decarbonisation plan with sector-specific priorities and policy frameworks that account for interdependencies across sectors and provide demand signals to guide corporates to invest.
• Accelerate implementation of a compliance carbon market (within three years). This would also require the creation of demand signals, especially in hard-to-abate sectors, and incentives linked to investments in newer technologies like CCUS.
• Enable banks to support the transition, catalyzed by a green-transition bank. Banks could be asked to come up with their investment glide paths within one to two years and build the necessary capability for assessing risks in these new spaces.
• Accelerate renewable adoption in the power sector to scale up capacity addition by four times and to deepen market reforms with a 30-year outlook in a manner that ensures a stable grid fed predominantly by infirm power.
• Empower a nodal authority to define a national land-use plan. Lay clear land-use guidelines for optimized use across urbanization, industrial needs, carbon sinks, agriculture, and renewables.
• Create a resilient indigenous manufacturing capability and increase investment in cleantech R&D. Efforts would be needed to develop local raw-material resources (such as rare earths), secure materials from elsewhere in the world, and produce equipment locally through mechanisms like production-linked incentive (PLI).
• Evaluate five carbon capture and storage hubs in Gujarat (Jamnagar), Odisha (Paradeep), Rajasthan (Barmer), Maharashtra (Pune), and Andhra Pradesh (Vizag) potentially in public–private partnership for utilization and storage of captured carbon.
• Create a national circularity mission with recycling hubs in the top 20 Indian cities (contributing 35 percent of municipal solid waste), mandated targets on recycling rates, recycled raw-material use (for example, blending norms), and landfill levies.
• Enhance the National Hydrogen Mission with government playing a key role in accelerating demand through blending mandates, boosting cost competitiveness via capital subsidies and R&D investments, and enabling export opportunities via international trade agreements.
• Empower companies to play on the front foot, evaluating investment opportunities that this green trend will unlock, aligned with India’s national plans or opportunities opened up by decarbonisation of other countries (for example, green-hydrogen derivative exports).

India needs to take thoughtful actions now to set itself up for an accelerated and orderly transition. Looking beyond the short term and laying the foundation for this transformation within this next decade is the imperative for a decarbonised India and world.

Rajat Gupta is a senior partner in McKinsey’s Mumbai office, where Divy Malik is an associate partner, and Shirish Sankhe is a senior partner; Naveen Unni is a partner in the Chennai office.

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India at 2050: Leveraging its population to become the largest economy

A virtuous cycle of growth, employment, savings, and investment can be created if people are productively employed.

Representative Image (Image: Reuters)

As per the United Nations’ (UN) World Population Prospects 2022 report, India is forecast to have the largest population in the world by 2023.

To ensure that India also emerges as the largest economy within the next few decades, at least in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, significant policy re-strategisation is needed.

Demographic Trends: Critical Markers

In terms of India’s evolving demographic profile in the 21 st  century, several important time markers can be highlighted.

First, India’s total population is projected to be the largest, overtaking that of China by 2023.

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Second, India’s working age population in the age group of 14-65 years would also exceed China’s by 2023.

Third, India’s share of working-age population would peak at 68.9 percent by 2030, i.e., in another eight years. In absolute numbers, India will provide 104.3 crore working-age persons in 2030. Correspondingly, at 31.2 percent, India’s overall dependency ratio would be the lowest in history by 2030.

Fourth, India’s young-age dependency ratio is expected to overtake the old-age dependency ratio by 2056.

India would remain the largest provider of human resources in the world among major countries, precisely when populations in many advanced countries would be aging fast.

Growth Prospects: Some Perspectives

As the Indian economy emerges out of COVID, the remaining eight decades of the 21st century may be critical as the relative economic positions of major economies of the world may undergo significant upheaval.

As per the OECD, an organisation of mostly rich countries, India may become the second largest economy in PPP terms by 2048, overtaking the US.

In the post-COVID period, many countries are facing medium to long-term economic challenges which may undermine their growth prospects. Faced with high inflation, the US has progressively moved to a relatively high-interest rate regime which may lead to an economic slowdown if not a recession in the near future.

Also, ongoing geopolitical challenges have disturbed global trade and production patterns.

Although India is also facing high inflation, it appears to have the potential to emerge as a net beneficiary from the ongoing economic situation. If we revise India’s growth trajectory as projected by the OECD, based on realistic assumptions regarding incremental capital-output ratio (ICOR), and savings and investment rates, India would emerge as the largest economy by the 2050s.

Re-strategising Government Intervention

In order to emerge as the largest economy, India must undertake major policy initiatives aimed at increasing its tax-GDP and revenue-GDP ratio to accommodate higher expenditure on education, health, and infrastructure relative to GDP.

In particular, government expenditure on education as a percentage of GDP should be increased to 6 percent so that the growing segment of working-age population can be adequately educated, trained, and skilled.

The young-age dependency ratio is expected to remain higher than the old-age dependency ratio until 2056. After that, as the share of the elderly in the total population increases, expenditure on health would become critical.

Capital expenditure on infrastructure will also have to be increased. For this, adherence to Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) targets, progressive reduction of government debt relative to GDP, and ensuring a strong balance in the revenue account are critical so that adequate fiscal space can be created for infrastructure expansion.

The share of working-age persons in India’s population is slated to keep on increasing. If they are productively employed, a virtuous cycle of growth, employment, savings, and investment can be created.

The structure of output is also predicted to change in favour of services. We expect that by the early 2050s, the share of agriculture in GDP is likely to shrink to about 5 percent, while that of industry would stabilise at nearly 20 percent. This would leave 75 percent as the share of the services sector.

Since the services sector is relatively less carbon emission intensive, this would make India not only the largest economy but also considerably climate friendly.

Dr. DK Srivastava, is Chief Policy Advisor, EY India. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.

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India in 2050: Future of Work

Digitization and exponential technologies like the Internet of things, big data, blockchain, artificial intelligence, 3D printing, machine learning, and robotics not only disrupt the ways we design, produce, manage and maintain products and services at a fast pace, but also the way we will work in the future. IBM’s Watson technology is already complementing human decision-making in fields such as cancer diagnostics through artificial intelligence. So will Watson and Co replace human labor in 2050? Global thought leaders like Stephen Hawking are warning already that the very technology that has been an enabler for mankind in the past, has the potential to destroy the world, as increasing automation is going to decimate middle class jobs, worsening inequality and risking significant political upheaval.  

While emerging technologies bring higher productivity and efficiencies, estimates already suggest that up to 45% of tasks people are paid to do every day could be automated in the future—with big impacts on emerging markets. China is acquiring 160.000 robots this year and a recent report by Citi and the Oxford Martin School shows that the Chinese market has already replaced the US as the largest market for industrial automation.  In India, textile giant Raymond is planning to cut about 10,000 jobs in its manufacturing centers in the next three years, replacing them with robots. IT-Giant Infosys has already announced reducing jobs through automation. The future will see business without people, like the fast-food chain Eatsa that requires zero human interaction.

The ‘future of work’ is not only shaped by automation, but also by changing aspirations: Enabled by technology and driven by increasing entrepreneurialism, the idea of ‘employment’ is already changing: The current generation of millennials is increasingly looking for purpose and personal development. The rise of the ‘on demand’ economy gives more power to the individual: Estimates suggest that by 2020, 1 in 2 people in the US and UK will work in a freelance capacity. While routine tasks are expected to be increasingly completed by intelligent machines and technology, creativity, analytical skills and problem solving will be requirements of the job of the future.

Is the picture so gloom? Human history has shown that technology has not only improved working conditions and living standards, increased value creation and raised incomes, it also created life-changing innovations such as the steam engine, the conveyer belt, airplanes or the internet – and yet we fail to predict its implications. “The global demand for cars will not exceed 1 million, one reason being the shortage of drivers,” estimated Gottlieb Daimler in 1901. In the same year, Wilbur Wright, a pioneer in aviation, estimated: “It will not be possible for humankind in the next fifty years to take-off in a metal plane.” The rest is history. We are certain that the future of work is changing, but the effects will not only be negative. These shifts will play out differently in India – and we need to join forces to prepare and make it inclusive.

THE FUTURE OF WORK IN INDIA 2050 – Threat or opportunity?  

Job creation is one of India’s biggest development challenges. Unemployment is projected to increase from 17.7 million last year to 17.8 million in 2017 and 18 million next year. The challenge is increasing with one million young Indians entering the labor market every month: The average age of an Indian in next two decades will be an average of 29 years as compared to the age of 37 years for China and 48 years for Japan. Job growth is not keeping up with this pace: According to Labor Bureau data, only 0.13 million jobs have been created in the last year, while 13 million people are added to the workforce every year. So where are the jobs? World Bank estimates that automation could replace up to 69% of jobs as we know them today in India. As per a recent survey, over 25% of employers in India expect to reduce the headcount as a result of digitization. At the same time, India 2050 will have 1.6 billion people connected to a global 9.7 bn market, opening up new opportunities for income generation and the way people engage with ‘work’. So against these trends, how does the future of work look like in India 2050?

WHAT WE DO: Complementing forces – The worker of the future leverages technology

The future will look positive for high skilled labour – but what does it look like for unskilled and semi-skillled labour? In India in 2050, many of the routine jobs will most likely be replaced by technology and cheap labor will cease to be a competitive advantage in India. Agriculture will be one of the sectors most affected by the shift, as 55% of Indians are employed in agriculture. They contribute only 16% net to the GDP, as most farmers are engaged in subsistence farming. Technology advances may change the scenario: In the short term, the farmer of the future will leverage technology to gather knowledge, increase his skills and produce closer to the market requirement, at higher prices and without losses along the value chain. In the long run, the ‘farm of the future’ will  be driven by talent that leverages sensors, IoT, robotics and artificial intelligence to increase productivity and reduce cost, hence increasing competitiveness of the sector and potentially leading to another ‘green revolution’.

Similarly, the manufacturing sector will go through a transformation. While India’s share of manufacturing employment is small with just 12% of all jobs , emerging technologies such as 3D-printing, robotics, and artificial intelligence will impact the way we think about “Make it in India” and its impact on employment creation. While in the short-term, automation may replace routine and manual jobs, the factory of the future will be driven by newly skilled professionals leveraging a connected environment of technology and data insights from research and development to production processes, maintenance and repair, creating customized products and responding to shorter product life cycles. Future factories will operate hyper-efficiently: Internet of things, connectivity, artificial intelligence and analytics will create a more agile and flexible shop floor, improving asset efficiency, at the same time requiring new skills from operators. As a result, India’s manufacturing has the potential to boost productivity and hence increase competitiveness.

Likewise, India’s IT industry will experience a major shift: A report released by NASSCOM predicts that the industry will generate $350 billion revenue by 2025, but because of automation, the total number of jobs generated will be 50% less than predicted. At the same time, new type of jobs will be created: While today, the IT-sector has mostly routine-jobs, the sectorwill see a 56% increase in high-skilled jobs that require analytical and problem solving skills. Intelligent technologies will augment existing jobs and enable us to be more productive, make better decisions, produce goods and services faster and closer to the user, and create new jobs. Rather than fearing how automation, robotics and 3D Printing are replacing jobs, the potential for India lies in creating new kind of jobs that combine automation with human interaction, as machines and humans are highly complementary and make use of productivity gains.

HOW WE DO: The “Uberization of labor” and Micro Entrepreneurship 2.0

Mass employment through boosting manufacturing has not been a “silver bullet” to take Indians out of unemployment; however, emerging technologies will act an enabler for generating new employment opportunities. No one has demonstrated this better than Uber: The company’s success in developing a mobile application that allows individuals to submit a trip request to drivers who use their own cars has disrupted not only the transportation sector, but the way we think about exchanging underutilized capacity of existing assets or human resources with close to zero transaction costs.

Talent platforms like Pilot show that the next wave of the ‘on demand’ economy will give more power to the individual and disrupt the way we think about employment. Indian-startup Squadrun provides a platform for individuals to take up tasks remotely such as verifying, categorizing and enriching data for global businesses. OlaCabs , TaxiForSure or Russsh are other Indian examples leveraging ‘on demand’ and providing jobs for India’s underutilized masses and giving rise to a new kind of micro entrepreneur providing services for those who value convenience. The pool of contingent workers may soon include students, single parents, young unemployed and pensioners. According to GSMA , 1 million jobs have been created in 2016 alone by the ‘on demand’ and sharing economy.

HOW WE ORGANIZE OUR WORK: The future of work is decentralized

Enabled by technology, the future of work will strengthen decentralization of work: On the individual level, this means work and value creation can happen from anywhere. Transformation of the workplace is already happening: Remote working, co-working and teleconferencing are today’s drivers empowering the individual and providing new kind of freedom. Mobile and cloud technology allow remote and instant access, democratizing access to jobs and income opportunities. With the shifts is what and how we work in India of the 2050, the way work is organized changes: Roles within companies will change and the way business is organized will shift to more decentralized structures, empowering individuals and teams.

This trend of individuals offering their service on platforms to increase their income opportunities will boost a new form of collaborative economy and give rise to new organizational models: While traditionally, organizations were formed to reduce transaction costs, technology enable new forms of getting work done—to the extent of removing the aggregating entity, the firm, completely and allowing individuals to transact directly with each other. In a system where information can flow easily and emerging technologies can reduce the transaction costs of matching labor and requirements, the individuals can become nodes in a single marketplace and form “just in time” teams and organizations. New collaborative platforms enable a seamless integration into global labor market on one hand, while it strengthens localized market places on the other hand. Token-based payment systems will support individuals to work seamlessly with each other and receive value for their work.

HOW WE NEED TO PREPARE: The future of work is near, but will it be inclusive?

India in 2050 will see new opportunities for those ambitious to learn and engage, while providing opportunities to engage and to offer labor on new kind of market places for those engaged in routine-tasks. To prepare, the task ahead of us requires re-skilling and strengthening of current capabilities to prevent a growing gap between those who have opportunities and those who are excluded. We face the risk of rising class struggles if we don’t take action and prepare. We believe preparing for an inclusive future of work means i) massive efforts in up-skilling through innovative forms of training delivery, ii) new kinds of job discovery for those un- and semi-skilled workers, iii) re-thought incentives for automation in countries with high population like India, and iv) social security structures that support those excluded from opportunities.

Up-Skilling Innovations

The future labour market will reward those who are keen to learn, the problem solvers and creative. But this is not everyone: India can take advantage of new forms of learning, training and skill building to up-skill those willing to learn. Emerging technologies enable customized, and contextual training delivered through videos, text, games and other mediums, independent of centralized educational institutions such as universities. While MOOC-enabled distance education has been around, the future lies in a combination of ‘education on your fingertips’ through formats such as accessible nanodegrees in vernacular languages and more engaging virtual reality-enabled class room education enabled via mobile phones. Platforms like Udemy are already today providing new ways of ‘just-in-time’ skilling and providing trainings on core competencies. In the future, these offerings may have to be broadened to include all part of society.

Job Discovery & Matchmaking Innovations

The micro entrepreneurs of the future require open access platforms to offer their talent. The Facebook is already making headway and providing help to lower skilled people to find jobs. Platforms like US-based Viridis use advanced algorithmic technology to assist students and job seekers with mid-level skills to find jobs. Startups like India-based Shortlist use smart algorithms to match talent, especially young job entrants, with opportunities. Models exist in other forms of the world, like Kenya, where mobile-based platform KaziConnect is connecting informal workers with jobs and offering them the chance to skill up through training courses and mobile education, and offering certifications that can be uploaded onto their profiles. Such platforms offer particular potential to bring women from lower income groups into the workforce, who often find it more difficult to access the job market.

Re-thinking Incentives

While some of thinking of regulating automation, this is not the answer: Policy makers need to encourage innovation and competitiveness; however, they can incentivize the private sector to take part of the re-skilling investment. Private investment is critical to address the re-skilling task, and incentives need to be created to crowd in private capital. In addition, decrease in overall amount of number of jobs is not per se a negative thing, if coupled with other interventions: Countries are already moving to 4 day work week or 20 hour work week, and as long as the income earned pays the bills there is no problem with that. This re-structuring of work provides opportunity to give work to more people and hence counter the effects of job destruction caused by automation.

Protecting those at the Base of the Pyramid

We need to think of new systems to secure income for those who cannot keep up with the speed of technology: Ideas like universal basic income and tailored ways of transferring social benefits to those in need and complementing their incomes will be needed to prevent growing inequality and the rise of a two-tiered society. Innovations are needed that allow those micro entrepreneurs working in the ‘freelance’ and on demand economy to articulate their interests. With the advent of the on-demand economy, the structure and the ability of unions to fight for labor rights will be diminished, due to the latent and flexible nature of jobs. New structures will need to be thought of to empower individuals to raise their voice.

Call for Action: Towards an inclusive future

Will the future of work mean we need to be afraid of machines solving tomorrow’s problems: Not necessarily, if we take action nowt! We do not believe that machines will have replaced humans in doing everything we consider valuable: Eradicating diseases? Erasing poverty? This will be done only with the people-centric innovation economy that uses machines to provide insights at speed, customize solutions, democratize access and change existing systems to elevate the value of people and empowering them. At the same time, we need to jointly work on creating mechanisms to provide opportunities and income to those at the Base of the Pyramid and to create an inclusive futureof work.

Stefanie Bauer:

Stefanie is Associate Vice President at Intellecap. She brings over 10 years of experience in the field of Private Sector Development in Europe, Africa and Asia. At Intellecap, she is currently leading research and consulting engagements around emerging technologies and their impact for social development in emerging markets.  

Samruddhi Mulye:

Samruddhi heads HR for Intellecap-Aavishkaar Group. She brings with her over 17 years of HR experience. Her proficiency being in Capacity-Building , Performance Management and Program Development for institutional transformation.

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india predictions for 2050

• Country Forecast

Read 12 predictions about India in 2050, a year that will see this country experience significant change in its politics, economics, technology, culture, and environment. It’s your future, discover what you’re in for.

Quantumrun Foresight prepared this list; A trend intelligence consulting firm that uses strategic foresight to help companies thrive from future trends in foresight . This is just one of many possible futures society may experience.

International relations predictions for India in 2050

International relations predictions to impact India in 2050 include:

Politics predictions for India in 2050

Politics related predictions to impact India in 2050 include:

Government predictions for India in 2050

Government related predictions to impact India in 2050 include:

Economy predictions for India in 2050

Economy related predictions to impact India in 2050 include:

• Five superpowers ruling the world in 2050. Link

Technology predictions for India in 2050

Technology related predictions to impact India in 2050 include:

Culture predictions for India in 2050

Culture related predictions to impact India in 2050 include:

Defense predictions for in 2050

Defense related predictions to impact India in 2050 include:

Infrastructure predictions for India in 2050

Infrastructure related predictions to impact India in 2050 include:

• India had 15.3 billion rail passengers this year, a 2.7x increase from 2019. India now accounts for 40% of global rail travel. Likelihood: 60% 1
• India to account for 40 percent of global rail travel by 2050. Link

Environment predictions for India in 2050

Environment related predictions to impact India in 2050 include:

• Portions of northern India experience heat waves that cross the 35-degree wet-bulb survivability threshold. Likelihood: 60 percent 1
• The number of people living in regions with high risks of experiencing deadly heatwaves reaches 310-480 million. Likelihood: 60 percent 1
• A massive drought hits India, leaving roughly five million people without any water. Likelihood: 80% 1
• Rising sea levels in India brings floods to India, particularly the West Bengal and coastal Odisha regions, affecting or displacing ~31 million people. Likelihood: 80% 1
• India generates 75% of its overall electricity from renewable energy. Of this, 34% comes from solar energy and 32% from wind energy. Likelihood: 70% 1
• Sea level rise to affect 36 million people in India by 2050 . Link
• India will get 75 per cent electricity from renewable energy in 2050. Link
• Water crisis to intensify across India by 2050, warns UN report. Link

Science predictions for India in 2050

Science related predictions to impact India in 2050 include:

Health predictions for India in 2050

Health related predictions to impact India in 2050 include:

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Read the top global predictions from 2050 - click here

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• 05 November 2021

Scientists cheer India’s ambitious carbon-zero climate pledge

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India, the world’s third-biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, has pledged to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2070. The ambitious commitment, made on 1 November at the high-stakes COP26 climate meeting in Glasgow, UK, brings India in line with other big emitters, including the United States, China, Saudi Arabia and the European Union, which have made similar promises.

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Essay on Future of India

Students are often asked to write an essay on Future of India in their schools and colleges. And if you’re also looking for the same, we have created 100-word, 250-word, and 500-word essays on the topic.

Let’s take a look…

100 Words Essay on Future of India

The rise of india.

India’s future is bright, full of potential and promise. With advancements in technology, it’s becoming a global leader in various sectors.

Technological Advancements

India’s tech industry is booming. With initiatives like ‘Digital India’, the country is rapidly digitizing, opening new opportunities.

Education and Skill Development

India’s focus on education and skill development is preparing a competent workforce, ready to meet global demands.

Environment and Sustainability

India is also working towards sustainable development, aiming to balance economic growth with environmental preservation.

The future of India is a blend of technological progress, educational advancements, and sustainable practices, promising a prosperous tomorrow.

250 Words Essay on Future of India

The vision of future india.

India, a land of diverse cultures, languages, and traditions, is on the cusp of a new era. The future of India lies in harnessing its potential as a knowledge economy, capitalizing on technological advancements, and nurturing its human capital.

Knowledge Economy and Digital Transformation

The future of India is deeply intertwined with its transition to a knowledge-based economy. With the digital revolution, India has the potential to become a global hub for innovation, research, and development. The government’s Digital India initiative is a step towards this vision, aiming to transform India into a digitally empowered society.

Advancements in technology, particularly in artificial intelligence, machine learning, and robotics, are poised to redefine India’s future. These technologies can revolutionize sectors like healthcare, agriculture, and manufacturing, leading to increased productivity and improved quality of life.

Human Capital and Education

India’s demographic dividend, with more than 50% of its population under the age of 25, presents a unique opportunity. However, it also poses a challenge. The need for quality education and skill development is paramount to prepare this workforce for the future.

Challenges and Opportunities

Despite these prospects, challenges remain. Socioeconomic disparities, infrastructural gaps, and environmental concerns need to be addressed. However, with effective policy measures, robust institutional frameworks, and a commitment to sustainable development, India can overcome these challenges.

In conclusion, the future of India is promising, filled with opportunities and potential. By leveraging technology, investing in human capital, and addressing existing challenges, India can chart a path towards a prosperous and inclusive future.

500 Words Essay on Future of India

The dawn of a new era.

India, a country with an ancient civilization and rich cultural heritage, stands at the cusp of a new era. With a population of over 1.3 billion, it is poised to become the most populous nation by 2027. This demographic dividend, coupled with rapid technological advancements, holds the promise of catapulting India into the league of developed nations.

Technological Innovation

India is rapidly emerging as a global hub for technological innovation. The IT sector, which currently contributes about 8% to the nation’s GDP, is expected to play a pivotal role in shaping India’s future. The proliferation of startups, especially in the fields of artificial intelligence, machine learning, and data analytics, is testament to this trend. These technologies are not just creating new jobs but are also driving efficiencies in sectors as diverse as healthcare, agriculture, and education.

The future of India is intrinsically tied to the education and skill development of its youth. The government’s focus on initiatives such as ‘Skill India’ and ‘Digital India’ aims to equip the workforce with the skills required for the jobs of the future. Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) are making quality education accessible to students in the remotest corners of the country, thereby democratizing education.

Infrastructure Development

Infrastructure development is another key area that is set to transform the landscape of India. The government’s ambitious ‘Smart Cities’ initiative aims to build 100 smart cities that leverage technology to improve urban life. Additionally, the ‘Bharatmala’ and ‘Sagarmala’ projects aim to improve connectivity and spur economic growth.

Environmental Sustainability

India’s future is also intertwined with its commitment to environmental sustainability. The country is making significant strides in renewable energy, with a target of achieving 175 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2022. The successful implementation of the world’s largest clean cooking fuel program, ‘Ujjwala Yojana’, is another feather in India’s sustainability cap.

Challenges Ahead

While the future looks promising, India also faces significant challenges. Socio-economic disparities, gender inequality, and inadequate healthcare infrastructure are some of the key issues that need to be addressed. The future of India depends on how effectively these challenges are tackled.

In conclusion, the future of India lies in leveraging its demographic dividend, harnessing technological advancements, improving education and skill development, and committing to environmental sustainability. While challenges persist, the spirit of resilience and innovation that characterizes India gives hope for a bright and prosperous future. As India stands on the brink of a new era, it is poised to not just transform itself, but also make significant contributions to global progress.

That’s it! I hope the essay helped you.

If you’re looking for more, here are essays on other interesting topics:

• Essay on Indian Heritage
• Essay on Indian Farmer
• Essay on Women’s Safety in India

Apart from these, you can look at all the essays by clicking here .

Happy studying!

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5 Things to Know to Understand India’s Economy Under Modi

As Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeks a third term, India’s growth has received the attention of the world’s investors but inequality has deepened.

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By Alex Travelli

Reporting from New Delhi

Narendra Modi has big money behind him as he appears set to win a third term as India’s prime minister. His party has collected more political cash than the others combined, and the country’s richest business leaders support him.

The campaign is fueled partly by a winning story Mr. Modi tells about India’s economy, some of which can be traced to changes made during his decade in office. He has also benefited from geopolitical currents that have made India more attractive to global financiers. Here are five factors that are essential to understanding India’s economy. Elections will start on April 19 and conclude June 4.

India is big and getting bigger.

India, the world’s largest population , has been poor for centuries on a per person basis. But its economy has developed an undeniable momentum in the past three decades and is now worth $3.7 trillion. Size like that has its advantages: Even one percentage point of growth is monumental.

“Fastest-growing major economy” has become India’s signature in the past few years. In 2022 India became the fifth-largest economy — stepping over Britain. Even if it continues to grow at a relatively modest pace, it should overtake Germany and Japan to become the third-largest economy around 2030, behind only China and the United States.

The “India growth story,” as local businesspeople call it, is attracting a surge of excitement from investors, especially overseas. Under Mr. Modi, Indians are becoming more hopeful about their country’s economic future. As the economy gets bigger, even smaller rates of growth pile on huge sums of wealth.

Yet many facts of the Indian economy remain stubbornly in place. A large proportion of the work force toils on farms, for instance, and a relatively small part of it is employed in factories. Without better jobs , most Indians will be left waiting to taste this success.

There’s nothing like being in the right place at the right time.

Over the past 10 years, the rest of the world has given Mr. Modi opportunities to turn adversity into India’s advantage. He took office as oil prices were cut in half, a huge boost to the country because it relies heavily on imported crude .

The next few years were bumpier. Shocks caused by Mr. Modi’s boldest moves — an abrupt ban on bank notes and a big tax overhaul — were slow to be absorbed. By 2019 growth was slowing to less than 5 percent. Mr. Modi won re-election that year on the strength of a nationalistic campaign after brief border clashes with Pakistan.

When the Covid-19 pandemic came, it was cruel to India. During the first lockdowns, the economy shrank 23.9 percent. A 2021 wave pulled India’s health-care system into crisis.

India’s economic recovery then coincided with a supercharged enthusiasm by Western countries to tap India as an economic and strategic partner. The pandemic had exposed the world’s deep dependence on China as a supplier and manufacturer. And China’s heightened tensions with the United States, its own border clashes with India, and now its uncertain economic prospects inspired businesses and investors to look to India as a solution.

Build, baby, build: India shows off shiny new projects.

The most visible improvements to India’s economy are in infrastructure. Mr. Modi’s gift for implementation has helped build up capacity exactly where India has missed it most.

The building boom started with transportation: the railways, ports, bridges, roads, airports. India is remaking itself rapidly. Some of the developments are truly eye-catching and are laying the tracks for faster growth. The hope is that local businesses will start investing more where the government has lent its muscle.

Investment in India’s education and public health has been less meaningful. Instead, the government under Mr. Modi has aimed to make concrete improvements for ordinary Indians: bringing electricity to most remote villages, and drinking water and toilets to homes that lacked them.

Beneath the gleam, a digital powerhouse is built.

Less tangible but perhaps more significant has been India’s rapid adoption of what the government calls “digital public infrastructure.” This is a web of software that starts with Aadhaar, a biometric identification system established under Mr. Modi’s predecessor, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. From unique digital identities, it has tied together access to bank accounts, welfare benefits and tax requirements.

This new organization of India’s data, combined with a dense and cost-effective mobile network, has brought efficiencies that grease the gears of commerce. India is proudly exporting the basic framework of its digital architecture to other countries.

Inequality deepens as old problems go unsolved.

Some of the Indian economy’s persistent ailments have been left to fester. Mr. Modi has tried and failed to fix things that plagued previous governments, like industrial policy, the broken agricultural markets and rules for land acquisition. What has become even worse under his government is the country’s vast inequality.

A study published last month by the World Inequality Database in Paris found that while the number of billionaires in India nearly tripled in the past 10 years, the incomes of most Indians were stagnant. The median income is still only $1,265 a year, and 90 percent of the country makes less than $3,900. When so many are left with so little, it is hard to see how domestic consumption will spur faster growth.

The Indian government is quick to reject most such reports; the underlying data is too thin, its economists say. But that’s partly because of the government’s own doing. For all of India’s digital innovation, deciphering what is going on in the country’s economic life has become harder. Under Mr. Modi’s government, fewer official statistics are published and some important data sets, such as those tracking household consumption, have been delayed and redesigned.

What’s more, institutions like think tanks and universities face legal and financial pressure to fall in line behind the government’s messaging.

Alex Travelli is a correspondent for The Times based in New Delhi, covering business and economic matters in India and the rest of South Asia. He previously worked as an editor and correspondent for The Economist. More about Alex Travelli

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My Vision For India In 2050 Essay In 500+ Words

Hello Friend, In this post “ Essay On My Vision For India In 2050 In 500+ Words “, We will read about My Vision For India In 2050 as an Essay in detail. So… 

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Essay On My Vision For India In 2050 In 500+ Words

Slogan:- “Everywhere is happiness, people love each other, India free of hunger & fear, It is the vision of my India 2050”.

Introduction:-

Developing to develop it is the journey of a nation. I to me and my to our is the key of mission 2050. Currently, India is celebrating its seventy-five years of independence.

Everyone has dreams to make the country big and democratically successful. A country where there is equality in all areas and for all genders it witnesses progress.

Like others, I also have a dream for my India and the way it should be so I can proud to live and the coming generations too. Our country in 2050 will be what we create today.

The year 2050 will be the landmark year to look at India through the prisms of development, growth, gender, equality, employment, and other factors.

What we dream is what we see, similarly, how we visualize India of 2050 will determine the revolutions we will adopt over the next twenty-five years.

One wants to see India free from poverty, unemployment, malnutrition, corruption, and other social evils. over the next twenty-five years, India should transform into a powerful nation both internally and externally.

Over this, our foremost target as a developing nation should be to work on economic fronts and make our economy stronger by bringing in some major reforms.

Besides the economic sphere, there is a need to work towards gender equality and providing equal opportunities for all irrespective of their background.

The next twenty-five years will be extremely crucial not just for our country but also for us as citizens of India.

Paragraph On My Vision For India @ 100 years

Essay On My Vision For India @ 100 years In English

My vision for India in 2050:-

The India of my vision where women are safe and walk freely on road. Also, It will be a place where there is freedom of equality to all and everyone. It would be a place where there is no discrimination of caste, color, gender, social or economic status, and race.

I see it as a place that sees an abundance of development and growth.

Women Empowerment:-

There is a lot of discrimination against women. But, still, the women are sleeping out of their houses and making a mark on different fields and on society. My vision for India in 2050 is to become women more powerful and self-dependent.

we have to work hard to change the mind of society. My vision is India is a country that sees women as its assets, not as liabilities. Also, I want to place women on an equal level as men.

Education:-

Government work to promote education. but there are many people who do not realize its true importance. the India of my vision in 2050 will be a place where education will be mandatory for all.

Caste Discrimination:-

India got independence in 1947 still we are not able to get complete independence from caste, religion, and creed discrimination. My vision for India in 2050 is where there is no discrimination of any kind.

Employment opportunities:-

There are many educated people in India . but, due to corruption and many other reasons they are unable to get a decent job. My vision for India in 2050 will be a place where the deserving candidate will get the job first rather than reserved candidates.

Health and Fitness:-

My vision for India in 2050 is to improve the health system by providing good facilities to people. people are also aware of health to fitness.

Corruption:-

Corruption is one of the major reasons that are hindering the growth of the nation. So, my vision for India is in 2050 where the minister and official are dedicated to their work and wholly for the development of the country.

Conclusion:- {My Vision For India In 2050 Essay}

The India of my vision in 2050 will be an ideal country, where every citizen will be equal. Also, there is no discrimination of any type. In addition, It will be a place where women are seen as equals to men and respected equally.

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Essay on “India in 2050 A.D.” for School, College Students, Long and Short English Essay, Speech for Class 10, Class 12, College and Competitive Exams.

India in 2050 A.D.

India is 2050 A.D. will be completely a changed scenario. One can visualize thus. Poverty in the country will have minimized, if not completely abolished. Every citizen of the country, irrespective of caste, colour sex and religion will be entitled to certain basic facilities like, free education, employment, housing, health and Medicare. The state will have taken upon itself the duty to look after every citizen from the cradle to the grave, and in turn, expect all of us to put our best efforts forward for the betterment of the nation. The rules will be much strict for the anti-social elements in any sphere of life.

Workers will have got their rightful due. They will no longer be dependent upon the mercy of their employers. They will be equal partners in the progress of the industry. The unemployment problem seems to have solved to a great extent with the expansion of industries into far off villages along with the modernization of Agriculture. The New Education Policy will have borne its full fruit and the whole system of Education will be vocational zed and there will be no problem of skilled workers and jobs for them.

Hopefully India would be one of the great power of the world in terms of her war-preparedness and the current problems of terrorism and border skirmishes will have died a natural death and everything will be stable with everything. India will have proved to be an electronic giant in terms of the production and export of electronic goods.

Our relations with our neighbours countries will have turned to be fully cordial including China and our efforts to make South Asia a single unity would have borne fruit to a great extent.

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