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Philippines election 2022: what you need to know about the vote for president

Ferdinand Marcos Jr, known as Bongbong Marcos, frontrunner in race to replace populist president Rodrigo Duterte

What’s happening?

On 9 May about 67.5 million Filipinos will go to the polls to decide who should replace the populist president Rodrigo Duterte . He has reached the end of his six-year term and is constitutionally barred from running again.

It’s not just the presidential post that will be decided on 9 May. Thousands of positions are being contested across the country – from the vice presidency and Senate seats, to 18,000 local positions, including city mayors and provincial governors.

Election posters are almost inescapable: they are pinned to the front of homes, along walkways and are plastered on billboards.

How will people vote?

Most ballots will be cast on election day. More than 1.6 million Filipinos who work overseas began voting for national candidates on 10 April.

When will we know the results?

Voting is due to close at 7pm on Monday, though the Commission on Elections has said it may extend voting hours if people are still waiting outside polling stations.

Vote counting will begin as soon as the ballots close, and the winner could be apparent within hours. However, in 2016, Duterte was not officially declared the winner until almost three weeks later.

Who is the frontrunner for president?

Ferdinand Marcos Jr, 64, known as Bongbong Marcos, the namesake and only son of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos, is leading the opinion polls. His family’s name and history is deeply divisive. The family plundered billions of dollars from the state, and the imposition of martial law by Marcos Sr in 1972 marked one of the darkest periods in the country’s history.

Marcos Jr was 28 years old when his father was toppled by the 1986 People Power Revolution. The family was forced to flee the Malacañang Palace and went into exile. Observers say that, ever since, the Marcoses have been intent on returning to the country’s highest office. Marcos Jr’s mother, Imelda, has previously described the presidency as her son’s “destiny”.

Marcos Sr died in exile, but the family were allowed to return to the Philippines during the 1990s, when they began to rebuild their presence in public life. Marcos Jr was subsequently elected Ilocos Norte governor, a congressman and a senator. In 2016, he ran for vice president, but lost to Leni Robredo, a human rights lawyer who is now running against him in the presidential race.

Marcos Jr has downplayed or denied abuses committed under his father, and has developed a large social media presence that has allowed the family to rebrand itself. Accounts linked to or supportive of the family have spread disinformation about Marcos regime, portraying it as a golden era.

He has campaigned with the slogan “together we will rise again”, promising unity and hope, while also stating he will prioritise the cost of living and jobs. However, he has not taken part in presidential debates and has dodged tough media questions, including over his father’s legacy, his family’s ill-gotten wealth (estimated to be as much as US$10bn) and his own unpaid tax bill.

Who are the other candidates?

Second in the polls is vice-president Leni Robredo , who has presented herself as a true alternative to the likes of Marcos and Duterte.

The daughter of a judge and an English professor, Robredo previously worked for nongovernment organisations providing legal assistance to marginalised groups. She entered politics after the death of her husband, interior secretary Jesse Robredo, who was killed in a plane crash in 2012.

Robredo was elected vice president in 2016, and has had a frosty relationship with Duterte, criticising his “war on drugs”, and speaking out about human rights issues. She has warned of the risks of populist leaders, condemned the legal charges against Nobel prize-winning journalist Maria Ressa , and the decision to grant Marcos Sr a hero’s burial . In the Philippines, the vice president and president are elected separately.

Robredo has promised to tackle corruption in politics, and her campaign slogan is “Honest government, a better life for all”. The only woman presidential candidate, she has been labelled as weak by critics and been targeted by online smears and misinformation, according to fact-checker group Tsek.ph.

Marcos has a significant lead in polling, however Robredo has been boosted by huge turnouts at recent rallies, and by her army of passionate volunteers – 2 million in total – who have been going house to house to persuade undecided voters.

Further behind Robredo is Manny Pacquiao , a champion boxer and national hero. Pacquiao, a former street kid who rose to become a sports star, began his political career in 2010, becoming a member of the House of Representatives and then a senator in 2016. He was once an ally of Duterte, but relations between the two have since soured. He has accused Duterte of being too close to China, and has promised to tackle corruption.

Also running is Isko Moreno , a former actor and current Manila mayor. He grew up in one of Manila’s poorest neighbourhoods before he was talent spotted and began a career in TV and film. Duterte has mocked him over his showbiz past, likening him to “a call boy” for having posed for racy photos.

Moreno has pledged to take a tough stance on Chinese aggression in the South China Sea, to continue infrastructure projects started under Duterte, and has presented himself as a “healing” candidate.

Trailing behind in the polls is Panfilo Lacson , a senator and former police chief. He is known for having a touch stance on crime and for backing a controversial anti-terror law, which permits warrantless arrests and allows authorities to hold individuals for weeks without charge.

What legacy will Duterte leave?

Duterte’s presidency has been tumultuous and attracted strong criticism from rights groups but he remains popular at home. Many supporters believe he has delivered what he promised at the start of his term, including taking a tough stance on crime and corruption.

His straight-talking, strong man image appears to still resonate with many, and his popularity has endured even after the Philippines faced one of the world’s toughest Covid lockdowns. His daughter, Sara Duterte, who is the frontrunner in the race for the vice presidency, has benefited from the popularity of the family name.

But rights experts at home and abroad have criticised Duterte’s authoritarian style of leadership, including his approach to drugs-related crime and his intolerance of dissent. Last year the international criminal court announced it was investigating his so-called “war on drugs” , in which as many as 30,000 people are estimated to have been killed.

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Why the 2022 Philippines election is so significant

There are 10 candidates vying to replace Rodrigo Duterte as president, but only two really matter.

The Philippines goes to the polls on May 9 to choose a new president, in what analysts say will be the most significant election in the Southeast Asian nation’s recent history.

Outgoing President Rodrigo Duterte leaves office with a reputation for brutality – his signature “drug war”  has left thousands dead and is being investigated by the International Criminal Court (ICC) – economic incompetence, and cracking down on the media and his critics.

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Duterte has also been criticised for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, which has killed at least 60,439 people in the archipelago.

There are 10 people battling to replace him, but only two stand a chance of winning.

The first is frontrunner Ferdinand Marcos Jr, popularly known as “Bongbong” and the namesake of his father, who ruled the Philippines as a dictator until he was forced from office and into exile in a popular uprising in 1986.

The second is Leni Robredo, the current vice president and head of the opposition, who has promised more accountable and transparent government and to reinvigorate the country’s democracy.

“This election is really a good versus evil campaign,” University of the Philippines Diliman political scientist Aries Arugay told Al Jazeera. “It’s quite clear. Duterte represents dynasty, autocracy and impunity. Robredo stands for the opposite of that: integrity, accountability and democracy.”

What happens on election day?

Some 67.5 million Filipinos aged 18 and over are eligible to cast their vote, along with about 1.7 million from the vast Filipino diaspora who have registered overseas.

Polling stations will open at 6am (22:00 GMT) and close at 7pm (11:00 GMT). The hours have been extended because of the coronavirus pandemic and the need to avoid queues and crowds.

Once the polls close, counting gets under way immediately, and the candidate with the most votes wins. There is no second round so the name of the new president could be known within a few hours. The inauguration takes place in June.

As well as the presidential race, Filipinos are choosing a new vice president – the position is elected separately to the president – members of congress, governors and thousands of local politicians including mayors and councillors.

Politics can be a dangerous business in the Philippines and there is the risk of violence during both campaigning and the election itself.

In one of the most horrific incidents, dozens of people were killed and buried by the roadside in 2009 by a rival political clan in what became known as the Maguindanao massacre .

Who is in the running for president?

Opinion polls suggest Marcos Jr remains in the lead although Robredo appears to be closing the gap.

The 64-year-old dictator’s son attended the private Worth School in England and studied at Oxford University – Marcos Jr’s official biography says he “graduated” but the university says he emerged with a “special diploma” in social studies.

He entered politics in the family stronghold of Ilocos Norte in 1980, and was governor of the province when his father was forced out of power and democracy restored.

In 1992, he was elected to congress – again for Ilocos Norte. Three years later, he was found guilty of tax evasion, a conviction that has dogged him ever since but does not seem to have hindered his political career.

Marcos Jr was elected a senator in 2010, and ran unsuccessfully for the vice presidency six years later when he was pipped to the post by a resurgent Robredo.

On the campaign trail, Marcos Jr has talked of “unity” but has provided little detail on his policies and has avoided media interviews and debates.

His running mate is Sara Duterte-Carpio , Duterte’s daughter, who took over as mayor of Davao City from her father and is leading the field for vice president.

Robredo is the current vice president and a human rights lawyer who got into politics in 2013 after her husband – a government minister – was killed in a plane crash.

She threw her hat into the ring at a relatively late stage, and has relied on a network of pink-clad volunteers to win over voters across the archipelago.

Thousands have turned out for her rallies, some of then standing for hours in their hot sun waiting to hear the presidential hopeful speak. Robredo, whose running mate is Senator Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan, is running on a platform of good governance, democracy and an end to corruption.

Other candidates include champion boxer Manny Pacquiao , Manila mayor Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso, and a former police chief Panfilo Lacson.

Why would a Marcos victory be controversial?

Ferdinand Marcos became president of the Philippines in 1965, winning over Filipinos with his charisma and rhetoric, and taking control of a country that appeared at the time to be one of Southeast Asia’s emerging powerhouses.

Backed by the United States, Marcos won a second term in office in 1969, but three years later he declared martial law claiming the move was necessary to “save” the nation from communists.

For the next 14 years, he ruled the country as a dictator.

More than 3,200 people were killed – their bodies often dumped by the road side as a warning to others – and even more tortured or arbitrarily jailed, according to the US academic and historian, Alfred McCoy.

Marcos’s biggest rival, Benigno Aquino, was assassinated as he got off a plane at Manila airport.

The killing shocked Filipinos at a time when they were increasingly angry at the corruption and extravagance of the Marcos regime. Even as many lived in poverty, the Marcos family bought properties in New York and California, paintings by artists including impressionist master Monet, luxury jewellery and designer clothes.

Transparency International estimated in 2004 that the couple embezzled as much as $10bn during their years in power, and Imelda , Marcos’s wife, has become a byword for excess.

But since the former dictator’s death in Hawaii in 1989, the Marcos family have sought to rehabilitate themselves, trying to portray the dictatorship as some kind of golden age.

In 2016, Duterte allowed Ferdinand Marcos to be buried in Manila’s heroes cemetery, complete with a 21-gun salute .

Now the Duterte family is allied with the Marcos one, and their bid also has the support of other politically influential dynasties in a country where blood ties are more important than any political party.

“The meteoric resurgence of the Marcoses is itself a stinging judgement on the profound failures of the country’s democratic institutions,” academic Richard Javad Heydarian wrote in a column for Al Jazeera in December. “Decades of judicial impunity, historical whitewashing, corruption-infested politics and exclusionary economic growth has driven a growing number of Filipinos into the Marcoses’ embrace.”

Many worry the election of Marcos Jr, particularly if Duterte becomes vice president as widely expected, could herald a new era of repression.

“The two are the offspring of two strongman rulers,” Arugay said. “Can we expect restraint and inclusive government? You don’t need to be a political scientist to answer that question.”

Earlier this week, some 1,200 members of the clergy of the Catholic Church endorsed Robredo and Pangilinan describing them as “good shepherds”. At least 86 percent of Filipinos are Catholic.

“We cannot simply shrug, and let the fate of our country be dictated by false and misleading claims that aim to change our history,” they said.

Will the result be accepted?

When Marcos Jr lost the vice presidential race by 263,000 votes in 2016, he challenged the result in court.

With the stakes much higher this time around, some analysts worry he could do so again if Robredo manages to pull off a victory.

The role of social media

Filipinos are avid users of social media and the platforms have played a key – and divisive – role in the election, intensifying the more toxic elements of political campaigning.

Marcos Jr and his team have been accused of using – and abusing – online platforms.

In January, Twitter suspended more than 300 accounts promoting his campaign, which it said breached rules on spam and manipulation.

Joshua Kurtantzick of the Council on Foreign Relations says Marcos Jr has also benefited from “the legacy of Duterte, who fostered the spread of disinformation and made it easier for another strongman to win”.

Senatorial race

While all eyes are on the presidential race, it is worth keeping an eye on the senate, too.

Leila de Lima, who has spent the past five years imprisoned in the national police headquarters in Manila after questioning Duterte’s drug war, is campaigning for office again.

The opposition senator is hopeful she may soon be released after two key witnesses withdrew their testimony .

De Lima was the target of vicious, misogynistic attacks by Duterte and his supporters before she was charged in 2017 with taking money from drug lords while she was justice secretary in the government of the late Benigno Aquino III .

De Lima has denied the charges and Human Rights Watch has said the case is politically motivated.

Explainer: A guide to the Philippines 2022 election

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The 2022 Midterm Elections in the US Essay

The results of the 2022 midterm elections were unusually favorable for the Democrats. It has been the only instance besides the 1998 and 2002 elections when a party holding the White House managed to keep most of its seats in the Senate and the House of Representatives. Recent major societal shifts are among the reasons for such an outcome. How the COVID-19 epidemic was handled, the political scandals following the 2020 Presidential elections and the human rights movements gaining significant weight in the political discussions strongly influenced the election outcomes. The results show somewhat unexpected support for the Democrats keeping majority in the Senate, and are a strong basis for them in the upcoming 2024 Presidential elections.

The significant difference between the opposing sides’ rhetoric and actions has played a critical role in the distribution of votes in some swing states. The main point of contingence amidst the elections was the inflation rate and the government policies to fight it. Biden Administration has shown dedication to fighting inflation and other humanitarian issues so far, which has effectively swayed at least some voters into the Democratic side. Some goals they have been pursuing are reducing the deficit to ease long-term inflationary pressure, investing in clean energy production and manufacturing, investigating corporate profiteering by the oil industry, and expanding access to affordable health insurance. Many corresponding policies were implemented, for example, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, the Consumer Fuel Price Gouging Prevention Act, and the Affordable Care Act. In the meantime, Republicans have not provided policy solutions to fight inflation and have repeatedly blocked or voted against proposed measures. These facts have influenced the election outcomes even in vital swing states like Pennsylvania, with progressive Democrat John Fetterman defeating the TV celebrity Dr. Mehmet Oz.

The results of the elections have demonstrated the waning influence of Donald Trump in the party and among the voters. However, earlier predictions have come true as Donald Trump declared his intentions to run for the Presidential campaign of 2024. The chances of success hinge on whether the Republicans keep their integrity amid the rising infighting. As Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell put it, “Candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome [of the Senate elections],” suggesting a lack of robust and reliable candidates in the party (Kapur & Thorp, 2022). Overall prospects for the Republicans have become uncertain as the election results show GOP victories only by a slim margin in the votes in most “red” districts.

Keeping the majority in the Senate is a significant win for the Biden Administration. Presidential appointees to executive and judicial branch posts will remain under the purview of the current majority leader Chuck Schumer. It is essential for the Democrats to keep the internal unity and decision-making persistence they have demonstrated so far. In contrast, they have a significant presence in both Senate and the House until 2024. Notably, moderates and independents revolted against Republicans and voted for Democrats despite President Biden’s waning approval ratings. It is indicative of the instability of the GOP support and the growing dissatisfaction with their actions among the voters.

In conclusion, the 2022 Midterm elections reinstated President Biden’s governance and the dominant Democratic influence in United States politics for the next two years. It provides solid positions for the Democrats in the upcoming Presidential elections even despite the current President’s low approval rates indicating public support for the general political direction of the incumbent party. The future for the Republicans remains uncertain, and the following months will show whether they manage to unite under a single effective coalition.

Kapur, S., Thorp, F. V. (2022). McConnell says Republicans may not win Senate control, citing ‘candidate quality’ . NBC News. Web.

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IvyPanda . 2024. "The 2022 Midterm Elections in the US." April 27, 2024. https://ivypanda.com/essays/the-2022-midterm-elections-in-the-us/.

1. IvyPanda . "The 2022 Midterm Elections in the US." April 27, 2024. https://ivypanda.com/essays/the-2022-midterm-elections-in-the-us/.

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IvyPanda . "The 2022 Midterm Elections in the US." April 27, 2024. https://ivypanda.com/essays/the-2022-midterm-elections-in-the-us/.

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Reflections on the Philippine presidential race

By Diana J. Mendoza

T he race for the presidency in the 2022 Philippine elections may be the most highly divisive and contested referendum for the highest public office in the country. It is a high-stakes and high-risk contest with intense pressures to win from both the top contenders for the office and those who support them. Focusing on the top two contenders, it is a race between stopping one seeking a path back to power and electing one seeking a great reset of powers in the government.

Instead of focusing on what challenges await the next President and the country, we focus on what we can learn from the race for the presidency.

1. Elections are not just about voting candidates into or out of of fi ce. These are not merely about the change of names and faces. Elections are about the transfer and legitimation of power. Should we take a step forward to usher in a new (or reformed) governance system or take two steps back to restore an old, tarnished, and contested rule?

2. Elections should not be about those who run for office. It is about the people who should be served — their needs, rights, interests, and demands. Don’t we all deserve a new government that helps more (or mostly) the vulnerable and the marginalized while seeking to protect all regardless of any markers of differences?

3. People cannot be restrained or constrained. Filipinos are resilient. True. But when it’s their future and their loved ones’ future at high stake, they mobilize and organize. Doesn’t the spirit of volunteerism we all witnessed renew and give new meaning to the Filipino’s “ bayanihan ,” from that of communal cooperation to collective action and accountability?

4. Conventional politics must end. Political parties cannot effectively steer the public space until genuine political party reforms are made. Shouldn’t we sustain the “people’s movements” seeking to expand the political space available and bring in the concerns of everyday life that are silenced by dominant powers operating in the society?

5. No issues are either politically or morally compelling. Politically contentious or not, all issues are and should always be both politically and morally compelling. Shouldn’t we stand up for the oppressed and unjustly persecuted and the basic sectors who are really in need? Shouldn’t we stand against the politically and morally corrupt?

6. Public service is the name but public accountability is the rule of the game. Article XI, Section 1 of the 1987 Philippine Constitution states that “Public office is a public trust … officers and employees must at all times, be accountable to the people…” Why is it so difficult to execute? Shouldn’t all those who run audit themselves first even before running?

Instead of focusing on what opportunities await the next President, we focus on the salient issues and tasks for the next President to act on. These issues and tasks echo those of the Ateneo de Manila University’s Department of Political Science published in a working paper series related to the 2022 presidential and vice-presidential elections and accessible via admupol.org.

1. Pass a Security of Tenure (SOT) law that will protect workers against abusive contractualization. The next President must certify the SOT bill as urgent and mobilize support from both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Review overseas employment and prioritize the creation of jobs locally and the organization of a task force on reintegration while sustaining protection mechanisms. Forge bilateral agreements to safeguard Filipinos abroad and create migration resource centers outside of the NCR (National Capital Region) and urban areas to assist families back home.

2. Stop the misogyny and privileging of men over women that still envelope Philippine governance and politics. Socio-economic targets should not be gender-blind. They should be speci fi c and implicit in achieving gender equality and underscore bringing people together instead of polarizing the polity as well as framed and executed with an ethic of care.

3. Declare and address a crisis in education aggravated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Provide higher funding for education where the Philippines’ current 3% budget is lower than what is required by UN standards. The next President must be able to resolve issues concerning the mismatch of the skills and talents of graduates that our education system produces and the needs of our society as well as demands of industries.

4. Develop a strong public healthcare system with strong public health infrastructure throughout the country that are able to respond to any pandemics like COVID-19, non-communicable diseases, and other-health related concerns. Toward this end, the next President must ensure the effective and efficient implementation of the Universal Health Care law, the provision of free and accessible healthcare through the National Health Insurance Program and Health Care Provider Network in provinces and cities.

5. Synergize the imperatives of the security sector and justice sector reforms with Sustainable Development Goal 16 which includes the promotion of peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, the provision of access to justice for all, and building effective, accountable institutions at all levels. There is a need to shift from a militaristic, anti-insurgency approach toward human security and a whole-of-government approach to addressing the root causes of rebellion.

6. Put inclusivity, transparency and accountability at the core of the government. Don’t we all deserve public of fi cials who do not only demonstrate excellence in public service but also maintain a culture of excellence? Under the leadership of the next President, can all agencies and instrumentalities of the government aim for a culture of excellence by meeting International Public Sector Accounting Standards and earn the Commission on Audit’s seal of approval? Can the next President direct all government agencies to an audit of its management system to meet the international standard for quality management systems? To start the process, will the next President boldly order a full disclosure policy that can promote greater transparency in public service, and hence, start combating problems of corruption and patronage politics?

In light of these salient lessons and tasks, will the next President of the Philippines draft a new history with a renewed faith in democracy? Or will the next President thrust the country and its people back to a history that will forever remain tarnished, mired, and highly contested?

Diana J. Mendoza, PhD is faculty and former chair (2017-2021) of the Department of Political Science, Ateneo de Manila University.

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2022: Our most consequential elections yet

Next week, the Philippines will go to the polls yet again. And make no mistake: This is the most consequential elections in contemporary Philippine history. Or, at least, since the 1969 elections, which saw Ferdinand Marcos Sr. becoming the first post-war Filipino leader to be re-elected to the presidency.

And this brings us to the concept of “path dependency.” Readers who have watched the sci-fi thriller, “The Adjustment Bureau” (2011), should know what I’m referring to here: Our future options as individuals are often shaped by single important decisions we make in critical moments of our lives. And guess what? The same also applies to societies.

After six years in power, outgoing President Duterte has managed to effectively undermine our liberal democratic institutions, yet he has failed to supplant them with functional and enduring ones.

The upshot is a perilous interregnum, where the old order has perished without a new one bursting into existence. Whoever becomes our next president will be in a distinct position to shape our political system, and our fate as a nation, for generations to come.

To truly appreciate how crucial our upcoming elections are, we need to revisit a similar juncture almost half a century earlier, where, as in today, a Marcos was also chasing the highest office of the land.

Had Marcos Sr. lost in that highly contested 1969 presidential election, which the international media universally dubbed as one of the dirtiest and most violent ever, our country would have likely been on a radically different trajectory.

It’s hard to say for sure whether Sergio Osmena Jr., the losing candidate in that fateful election, would have turned out as our own version of a Franklin D. Roosevelt or, to use more “oriental” examples, Lee Kuan Yew (Singapore). Anyone who has bothered to read Benedict Anderson’s classic essay, “Cacique Democracy” (1988), would be viscerally skeptical of our landed elite.

To be fair, we saw how in South Korea feudal lords transformed into “chaebols” (think of Samsung), namely world-class manufacturers. Japan’s “zaibatsus,” and their rehabilitated post-war counterparts, followed a similar path decades earlier.

Could the Philippines have followed a similar path under leaders such as Osmeña Jr. and, likely not long after, Benigno “Ninoy” Aquino Jr.? Maybe, especially if they had adopted optimal trade and industrial policy packages of developmental states in our neighborhood. Ninoy Aquino, a versatile journalist, was likely familiar with the successful economic strategies of our neighbors.

The Aquinos have clearly shown greater appreciation for institution-building than the man, who has come to shape our history over the past half a century. Had the 1969 elections, which saw Osmeña Jr. bizarrely losing in his own bailiwick, been truly fair and competitive, this would have been the likely outcome: There would have been no martial law and more than a decade of plutocratic dictatorship under a faux royal dynasty, which completely altered the trajectory of this nation.

Instead, the Philippines would have likely followed in the footsteps of more successful ex-Spanish colonies such as Chile, if not post-autocratic South Korea and Taiwan. From one of the world’s fastest-growing economies in the early 1960s, the Philippines descended into the ranks of bankrupt economies in the early 1980s. And it was no less than Marcos Sr., our “best president ever,” who oversaw this arc of long-term decline in the Philippines’ fortunes.

The damage to our institutions was so total and unmitigated that we are still living with the legacy of those dark days, including billions of dollars of odious debt contracted by Marcos cronies. The dictator’s successors, beginning with Corazon Aquino, didn’t start from zero: They started from negative ten!

Thanks to the countless shortcomings of post-Edsa administrations, and the unfathomable divisions among the opposition forces, the country is now on the cusp of electing another Marcos to the presidency. And should Ferdinand Marcos Jr. win, we will likely see constitutional change and a long-term overhaul of our political system, which would dictate the future of generations of Filipinos to come.

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But should opposition leader Maria Leonor “Leni” Robredo pull off yet another electoral upset, she would be in a historic position to prevent a century of Marcosian hegemony—and, accordingly, spell a new dawn in the country’s democratic struggle. So dear reader, when you vote, think of the welfare of generations of Filipinos to come.

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Marcos family once ousted by uprising wins Philippines vote in landslide

MANILA — Ferdinand Marcos Jr., son of the late dictator whose family plundered billions of dollars, was elected president of the Philippines by a landslide, according to preliminary results, 36 years after his father was ousted in a historic revolution.

For critics, it marks a further backward slide for a nation — once admired as one of the few democracies in Southeast Asia — that continues to trudge down the path of populism. Marcos succeeds the tough-talking President Rodrigo Duterte, best known for his crude insults and a war on drugs that has left thousands dead.

Duterte’s daughter, Sara Duterte-Carpio, is Marcos’s running mate and the next vice president. The tandem, which has dubbed itself the “Uniteam” for its supposed message of unity, is a political marriage of the country’s two most powerful dynasties.

In a speech early Tuesday, Marcos thanked his supporters for their “belief in our message of unity” and their “belief in the candidates.”

In the Philippines, nostalgia for strongmen trumps democracy

The mood was jubilant as the magnitude of their victory became clear and Marcos’s supporters sang and celebrated in front of the campaign headquarters along the same historic Manila avenue where people protested to oust his father more than three decades ago.

Meanwhile, hundreds of disheartened supporters of his main opponent, Maria Leonor “Leni” Robredo, flocked to a volunteer center to console one another and tune in to her live-streamed speech.

“We have started something that has never before been seen in our nation’s history: a campaign led by the people,” Robredo said Tuesday morning. “This structure of lies took a long time to build. There will come a time and chance to tear it down.”

Her supporters have suggested that her grass-roots campaign , which brought together diverse elements of pink-wearing volunteers across sectors, should maintain its momentum and prepare to take on a role as the opposition under the new administration.

Dictator’s son Marcos takes overwhelming lead in Philippines election

“One of the lessons we have to learn from the other camp is, when they lost [in the 2016 vice-presidential race], they started to campaign immediately,” said Mik Afable, a volunteer who organized flash mobs and helped take charge of operations on Monday.

He expressed hope that their movement would be a lasting one, compared to the well-financed Marcos juggernaut. “If you pay for loyalty, it goes away very quickly,” he said.

Marcos’s carefully planned journey to the presidency shows how social media can shape perception and politics in a highly online country, which has been dubbed the “patient zero” of disinformation after Duterte first won with the help of troll farms in 2016 .

As president, Marcos will rule over an archipelago of about 110 million ravaged by the climate crisis and the coronavirus pandemic, where about a fifth of the population lives below the poverty line. He also is expected to continue the drug war and shield the outgoing Duterte from possible prosecution at the International Criminal Court.

How the Philippines’ brutal history is being whitewashed for voters

“This election is so consequential because whoever wins will decide who lives and who dies in the Philippines,” said Nicole Curato, a sociologist and professor at the University of Canberra in Australia.

But the rest of Marcos’s platforms and policies are largely unclear because he has skipped election debates and interviews with independent media, instead surrounding himself with social media personalities and vloggers who enjoy preferential treatment from his campaign.

“We don’t know enough in terms of how they will govern,” Curato said. “They control the way they disseminate information.”

Marcos’s governing experience is concentrated in the province from which the family hails. He was governor of Ilocos Norte in the 1980s (replacing his aunt), before he left with the uprising that overthrew his father. After his return, he served as a representative for the province and then again governor before he was elected to the Senate in 2010 — where he was later involved in a corruption scandal .

Marcos is also expected to continue Duterte’s friendly stance toward China, and he previously said he would not seek help from the United States regarding the dispute over islands in the South China Sea, which China has heavily militarized. Popular ire, however, is running high against China over its pressure on Philippine fishermen, and there are long-standing ties with the United States, including between their militaries.

As the numbers steadily trickled in for Marcos on Monday, thousands across various precincts were still waiting to cast their votes well past midnight. Technical problems that plagued vote-counting machines fed into fears that ballots could be tampered with, and on Tuesday morning, demonstrators flocked to the Commission on Elections in Manila to protest what they saw as an election riddled with irregularities.

The human rights group Karapatan also called on the public to reject the Marcos-Duterte alliance, saying that Marcos “[spits] on the graves and sufferings” of thousands of martial law victims. “Worse, he has portrayed the victims of human rights violations as money-seeking opportunists,” said the group’s secretary general, Cristina Palabay.

According to the unofficial count with 98 percent of precincts reporting, Marcos won 58.7 percent of the ballots cast, more than 31 million votes, compared with Duterte’s victory with just 16 million in 2016.

Robredo, a lawyer and social activist, came in second with 14.8 million votes — less than half of Marcos’s total. The race was a rematch for the two, who had faced off in the 2016 vice-presidential race, which Robredo won, despite Marcos’s attempts to overturn the result.

Before Marcos Jr., no candidate in the past three decades had won the presidential election in a majority — not since the February 1986 snap election that saw Marcos Jr.'s father win 53 percent of the vote, only to be nullified amid concerns over massive electoral fraud, coercion and violence. Later that month, following the “People Power” revolution that saw more than a million Filipinos take to the street to oust the Marcos regime, the family fled the Philippines to exile in Hawaii, and Corazon Aquino was sworn in as the nation’s first female president.

In the Philippines, political dynasties dominate — with the Marcos family being among the most well known. Ferdinand Marcos, his wife, Imelda, daughter Imee and son have all held political posts in or representing the province of Ilocos Norte. Imelda, 92, who previously launched two unsuccessful presidential bids, arrived at a polling station Monday in a red outfit, rosary and Chanel pin.

“She’s wanted me to become president since I was 3 years old,” Marcos said of his mother in 2015.

They also face various controversies: unpaid estate taxes reported to have ballooned to over $3 billion; a graft conviction for Imelda; a nearly $2 billion class-action award and contempt order handed down by a U.S. District Court compensating thousands of victims of rights violations under the Marcos administration, among others.

Marcos Jr. also has controversies of his own, including a questionable tax record and his contested claim to have completed his studies at Oxford University .

The excesses of the Marcos family were in full view during their rule decades ago, with frequent jet-setting, spending sprees and, famously, Imelda’s thousands of pairs of shoes — boxes of which have since fallen victim to mold and termite infestations .

Under martial law at the time, reports of human rights abuses were rampant , including arbitrary arrests, forcible disappearances, torture and killings. But with a Marcos win, the family is set to be shielded from accountability.

There are ongoing attempts to recoup as much as $10 billion plundered by the family’s late patriarch. As president, in control of the executive branch and with influence over government agencies, Marcos Jr. will have outsize power in controlling that hunt.

The younger Marcos’s landslide win points to the success of his social media campaign but also Filipinos’ “serial disappointment” in the political establishment and democratic rule over the past three decades, said Marco Garrido, a sociologist at the University of Chicago.

“The faith they had in liberal democracy has dried up … and they’ve developed this taste for illiberal rule over the course of the Duterte administration,” he said. “This nostalgia for the Marcos period wouldn’t make sense unless you put it in the context of 36 years of disappointment.”

Westfall reported from Washington.

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Friday essay: Project 2025, the policy substance behind Trump’s showmanship, reveals a radical plan to reshape the world

In April 2022, conservative American think tank the Heritage Foundation, working with a broad coalition of 50 conservative organisations, launched Project 2025: a plan for the next conservative president of the United States.

The Project’s flagship publication, Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise, outlines in plain language and in granular detail, over 900-plus pages, what a second Trump administration (if it occurs) might look like. I’ve read it all, so you don’t have to.

The Mandate’s veneer of exhausting technocratic detail, focused mostly on the federal bureaucracy, sits easily alongside a Trumpian...

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In Tight Presidential Race, Voters Are Broadly Critical of Both Biden and Trump

3. feelings about the 2024 race for president, table of contents.

• The state of the 2024 presidential race
• Other findings: Biden’s job approval ticks up, Trump’s election-related criminal charges
• Educational differences in candidate support
• What are 2020 voters’ preferences today?
• How Biden’s supporters view his personal traits
• How Trump’s supporters view his personal traits
• Views of Biden’s presidency and retrospective evaluations of Trump’s time in office
• Attention to the candidates
• Does it matter who wins?
• What if voters could change the presidential ballot?
• How important is it for the losing candidate to publicly acknowledge the winner?
• 4. Joe Biden’s approval ratings
• Acknowledgments
• The American Trends Panel survey methodology
• Validated voters

• About half of voters (49%) say they have given a lot of thought to the candidates who are running in the 2024 presidential election – nearly identical to the share saying this at a similar point four years ago (51%).
• But the share who say “it really matters who wins” in November is 5 percentage points lower than it was in April 2020.
• And most voters say that if it were up to them, they would replace at least one of the two likely nominees (Joe Biden and Donald Trump). About half say they’d replace both Biden and Trump on the ballot.

Today, Trump and Biden supporters are about equally likely to say they’ve given a lot of thought to the presidential candidates. About half of Trump’s and Biden’s supporters say they have given a lot of thought to their options.

In April 2020, about half of voters said they had given “a lot” of thought to the candidates. But Biden’s supporters – fresh off the heels of a competitive primary – were more likely than Trump’s supporters to say they had thought a lot about the candidates (58% vs. 48%).

Today, 69% of voters say “it really matters who wins” the presidential election. Just 8% say it doesn’t really matter who wins, and roughly a third fall somewhere in between. However, the share of voters who say it really matters is 5 points lower than it was in April 2020, when 74% of voters said it really mattered. Both Trump and Biden supporters are lower on this measure today than four years ago.

Though both Biden and Trump have received enough delegates in the 2024 presidential primaries to secure their respective party’s nominations for president , most voters say they would like to replace at least one of them on the ballot.

• 49% of voters say that, if they had the ability to decide the major party candidates for the 2024 presidential election, they would replace both Trump and Biden with different candidates.
• 16% say they would keep Biden but replace Trump with a different Republican.
• A similar share (18%) say they would keep Trump but replace Biden with a different Democrat.
• Another 15% of voters say they would keep the contest as is.

Demographic and political differences

There are demographic differences in desired changes to the ballot. To some extent, these are associated with voting preferences.

Biden supporters are much more likely than Trump supporters to say they’d replace both candidates if they could (62% of Biden’s supporters say this, compared with 35% of Trump’s). In contrast, Trump’s voters are much more likely than Biden’s to say they’d keep both(27% of Trump supporters vs. 4% of Biden supporters). Roughly similar shares (about a third each) of each candidate’s supporters say they would keep only their candidate and replace the other.

Younger voters are more likely than older voters to desire ballot changes. Roughly two-thirds of voters under 30 say they would replace both Biden and Trump on the 2024 ballot. This compares with a narrower majority of those ages 30 to 49 (54%) and smaller shares of those 50 to 64 (46%) and those 65 and older (40%).

The gap between younger and older voters is far wider among Biden’s backers:

• Nearly three-quarters of Biden supporters under 50 (73%) say they would replace both candidates. Among Biden supporters ages 50 and older, about half say they would replace both Biden and Trump (53%). In both age groups, most of those who do not want to replace both candidates say they would keep only Biden.
• Among Trump supporters, 38% of those under 50 would replace both, compared with 33% of those 50 and older. Older Trump supporters are roughly twice as likely as younger Trump supporters to say they’d keep both candidates on the ballot (32% vs. 18%). Older Trump backers are more likely than younger ones to say they’d keep Trump but replace Biden (41% vs. 33%).

Among each candidate’s supporters, those with a four-year college degree are more likely than those with less education to say they would replace both candidates if they could.

Most voters continue to say it is at least somewhat important for the losing candidate to publicly acknowledge the winner as the legitimate president of the country.

Over the past eight years, a majority of voters – regardless of who they supported for president – have said it was at least somewhat important that the losing candidate in a presidential race acknowledge the winner.

But the degree to which Trump’s supporters have said this is important has shifted over the past eight years.  As the 2016 presidential election neared, Trump’s supporters became less likely to say it was important for the losing candidate to concede than they were earlier in the fall: The share who said it was very important for the loser to acknowledge the winner as the legitimate president declined by 20 percentage points between October 2016 and the eve of the November 2016 election.

In the spring of 2020, as Trump ran for reelection, 66% said this was very important.

Today, 44% of Trump’s supporters say it is very important for the losing candidate to concede. This compares with 77% of Biden’s supporters.

While there have been shifts among Clinton and Biden supporters during the same period, these changes have been much more modest. Majorities have said it is very important for the losing candidate to acknowledge the winner.

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About 1 in 4 americans have unfavorable views of both biden and trump, 2024 presidential primary season was one of the shortest in the modern political era, americans more upbeat on the economy; biden’s job rating remains very low, key facts about hispanic eligible voters in 2024, most popular, report materials.

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Poll: Election interest hits new low in tight Biden-Trump race

The share of voters who say they have high interest in the 2024 election has hit a nearly 20-year low at this point in a presidential race, according to the latest national NBC News poll , with majorities holding negative views of both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

The poll also shows Biden trimming Trump’s previous lead to just 2 points in a head-to-head contest, an improvement within the margin of error compared to the previous survey, as Biden bests Trump on the issues of abortion and uniting the country, while Trump is ahead on competency and dealing with inflation.

And it finds inflation and immigration topping the list of most important issues facing the country, as just one-third of voters give Biden credit for an improving economy.

But what also stands out in the survey is how the low voter interest and the independent candidacy of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could scramble what has been a stable presidential contest with more than six months until Election Day. While Trump holds a 2-point edge over Biden head to head, Biden leads Trump by 2 points in a five-way ballot test including Kennedy and other third-party candidates.

“I don’t think Biden has done much as a president. And if Trump gets elected, I just feel like it’s going to be the same thing as it was before Biden got elected,” said poll respondent Devin Fletcher, 37, of Wayne, Michigan, a Democrat who said he’s still voting for Biden.

“I just don’t feel like I have a candidate that I’m excited to vote for,” Fletcher added.

Another poll respondent from New Jersey, who declined to provide her name and voted for Biden in 2020, said she wouldn’t be voting in November.

“Our candidates are horrible. I have no interest in voting for Biden. He did nothing. And I absolutely will not vote for Trump,” she said.

Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, said, “Americans don’t agree on much these days, but nothing unites the country more than voters’ desire to tune this election out.”

The poll was conducted April 12-16, during yet another turbulent time in American politics, including the  beginning of Trump’s criminal trial  in New York and new attacks and heightened tensions  in the Middle East.

According to the poll, 64% of registered voters say they have high levels of interest in November’s election — registering either a “9” or a 10” on a 10-point scale of interest.

That’s lower than what the NBC News poll showed at this time in the 2008 (74%), 2012 (67%), 2016 (69%) and 2020 (77%) presidential contests.

The question dates to the 2008 election cycle. The lowest level of high election interest in the poll during a presidential cycle was in March 2012 — at 59%. But it quickly ticked up in the next survey.

This election cycle, high interest has been both low and relatively flat for months, according to the poll.

McInturff, the Republican pollster, says the high level of interest in the poll has “always been a signal for the level of turnout” for a presidential contest.

“It makes it very hard for us to predict turnout this far in advance of November, but every signal is turnout will be a lower percentage of eligible voters than in 2020,” he said.

By party, the current poll shows 70% of self-identified Republicans saying they have high interest in the coming election, compared with 65% of Democrats who say so.

Independents are at 48%, while only 36% of voters ages 18 to 34 rate themselves as highly interested in the election.

“They just aren’t low interest,” McInturff said of young voters. “They are off-the-charts low.”

NBC News poll: Frequently asked questions

Professional pollsters at a Democratic polling firm (Hart Research Associates) and a Republican firm (Public Opinion Strategies) have worked together to conduct and operate this poll since 1989. (Coldwater Corporation served as the Republican firm from 1989-2004.)

The polling firms employ a call center, where live interviewers speak by cell phone and telephone with a cross section of (usually) 1,000 respondents. The respondents are randomly selected from national lists of households and cell numbers. Respondents are asked for by name, starting with the youngest male adult or female adult in the household.

One of the common questions that critics ask of polls is, "I wasn't interviewed, so why should this poll matter?” By interviewing 1,000 respondents and applying minimal weights based on race, ethnicity, age, gender, education and the 2020 presidential vote, the poll achieves a representative sample of the nation at large – with a margin of error at a 95% confidence level.

NBC News editors and reporters — along with the pollsters at Hart Research and Public Opinion Strategies — all work to formulate the questions to try to capture the news and current events NBC is trying to gauge. Both Hart Research and Public Opinion Strategies work to ensure the language and placement of the questions are as neutral as possible.

Biden trims Trump’s lead

The poll also finds Trump narrowly ahead of Biden by 2 points among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup, 46% to 44% — down from Trump’s 5-point advantage in January, 47% to 42%.

The movement, which is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, is consistent with what other national polls have found in the Trump-Biden race.

Trump’s biggest advantages are among men (53% to 37%), white voters (54% to 37%) and white voters without college degrees (65% to 25%).

Biden’s top advantages are among Black voters (71% to 13%), women (50% to 39%) and Latinos (49% to 39%).

The poll shows the two candidates are essentially tied among independents (Biden 36%, Trump 34%) and voters ages 18-34 (Biden 44%, Trump 43%). One of the big polling mysteries this cycle is whether young voters have defected from Biden (as the NBC News poll has found over multiple surveys) or whether Democrats have maintained their advantage among that demographic.

When the ballot is expanded to five named candidates, Biden takes a 2-point lead over Trump: Biden 39%, Trump 37%, Kennedy 13%, Jill Stein 3% and Cornel West 2%.

Again, the result between Biden and Trump is within the poll’s margin of error.

Notably, the poll finds a greater share of Trump voters from the head-to-head matchup supporting Kennedy in the expanded ballot compared with Biden voters, different from the results of some other surveys.

(Read more here about how Kennedy's candidacy affe cts the 2024 race, according to the poll.)

The president’s approval rating ticks up to 42%

In addition, the poll found 42% of registered voters approving of Biden’s overall job performance — up 5 points since January’s NBC News poll, which found Biden at the lowest point of his presidency.

Fifty-six percent of voters say they disapprove of the job he has done, which is down 4 points from January.

Biden’s gains over the past few months have come from key parts of his 2020   base, especially among Democrats and Black voters. But he continues to hold low ratings among Latinos (40% approval), young voters (37%) and independents (36%).

“The data across this poll show that Joe Biden has begun to gain some ground in rebuilding his coalition from 2020,” said Horwitt, the Democratic pollster. “The question is whether he can build upon this momentum and make inroads with the groups of voters that still are holding back support.”

But McInturff, the GOP pollster, points out that the only recent presidents   who lost re-election had approval ratings higher than Biden’s at this point in the election cycle: George H.W. Bush (43%) and Trump (46%).

“President Biden has a precarious hold on the presidency and is in a difficult position as it relates to his re-election,” McInturff said.

On the issues, 39% of voters say they approve of Biden’s handling of the economy (up from 36% in January), 28% approve of his handling of border security and immigration, and just 27% approve of his handling of the Israel-Hamas war (down from 29% in January).

Voters gave Biden his highest issue rating on   addressing student loan debt, with 44% approving of his handling of the issue, compared with 51% who say they disapprove.

Biden leads on abortion and unity; Trump leads on inflation and competency

The NBC News poll asked voters to determine which candidate they thought is better on several different issues and attributes.

Biden holds a 15-point advantage over Trump on dealing with the issue of abortion, and he is ahead by 9 points on having the ability to bring the country together — though that is down from his 24-point advantage on that issue in the September 2020 NBC News poll.

Trump, meanwhile, leads in having the ability to handle a crisis (by 4 points), in having a strong record of accomplishments (by 7 points), in being competent and effective (by 11 points), in having the necessary mental and physical health to be president (by 19 points) and in dealing with inflation and the cost of living (by 22 points).

Inflation, immigration are the top 2024 issues

Inflation and the cost of living top the list of issues in the poll, with 23% of voters saying they’re the most important issue facing the country.

The other top voters is   immigration and the situation at the border (22%) — followed by   threats to democracy (16%), jobs and the economy (11%), abortion (6%) and health care (6%).

In addition, 63% of voters say their families’ incomes are falling behind the cost of living — essentially unchanged from what the poll found in 2022 and 2023.

And 53% of voters say the country’s economy hasn’t improved, compared with 33% who say that it has improved and that Biden deserves some credit for it and another 8% who agree the economy has improved but don’t give him credit for it.

“If I look back to when I had all three of my children in the house — we only have one child left in the house now, and we’re spending more now than what we did when we had a family of five,” said poll respondent Art Fales, 45, of Florida, who says he’s most likely voting for Trump.

But on a separate question — is there an issue so important that you’ll vote for or against a candidate solely on that basis? — the top responses are protecting democracy and constitutional rights (28%), immigration and border security (20%) and abortion (19%).

Indeed, 30% of Democrats, 29% of young voters and 27% of women say they are single-issue voters on abortion.

“I have a right to what I do with my body,” said poll respondent Amanda Willis, 28, of Louisiana, who said she’s voting for Biden. “And I don’t believe that other people should have the ability to determine that.”

Other poll findings

• With Trump’s first criminal trial underway, 50% of voters say he is being held to the same standard as anyone else when it comes to his multiple legal challenges. That compares with 43% who believe he’s being unfairly targeted in the trials. 
• 52% of voters have unfavorable views of Biden, while 53% share the same views of Trump.
• And Democrats and Republicans are essentially tied in congressional preference, with 47% of voters preferring Republicans to control Congress and 46% wanting Democrats in charge. Republicans held a 4-point lead on this question in January.

The NBC News poll of 1,000 registered voters nationwide — 891 contacted via cellphone — was conducted April 12-16, and it has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Mark Murray is a senior political editor at NBC News.

Sarah Dean is a 2024 NBC News campaign embed.

After taking NY for granted, Democrats have a new plan to win back the House in 2024

After surprising failures in 2022, democrats have recognized the path to reclaiming house control runs through new york..

Democrats defied expectations in the 2022 midterm elections, beating back President Joe Biden’s low approval ratings and record inflation. By the end of the cycle, they expanded their majority in the Senate and narrowly lost control of the House.

They came close but ultimately couldn't hand Biden another two years of total Democratic control in Washington.

Unexpectedly, the state that helped Republicans to clinch the House with a five-seat majority was reliably blue New York. Republicans there flipped four Democratic seats and snagged several other competitive races.

Now, Democrats are looking to reclaim lost ground in 2024 and usher in a new era of leadership, elevating House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., to serve as the first Black speaker of the House.

Democratic strategists and leaders put it simply to USA TODAY: In 2022 and all elections before, New York was taken for granted.

Prep for the polls: See who is running for president and compare where they stand on key issues in our Voter Guide

“You can’t take it for granted because it never should have been taken for granted,” Hank Sheinkopf, a longtime New York-based Democratic strategist and president of Sheinkopf Communications, told USA TODAY.

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Money flows into New York ahead of 2024 elections

After seeing what happened in 2022, national Democrats have recognized they can't afford to lose New York in 2024.

House Majority PAC, House Democrats’ largest super PAC, said in February that it would funnel $45 million to New York . That unprecedented amount of cash will run the gamut, according to Mike Smith, president of House Majority PAC and former top aide to former Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

“We’re planning to invest in everything from messaging research, to voter registration, field planning (to) Republican credibility,” Smith told USA TODAY.

All that messaging, including billboards and digital ads, is coming from a New York-based rapid-response war room handled by multiple communications and opposition-research staffers.

The push is centered on seven seats: New York’s 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 17th, 18th, 19th and 22nd Congressional Districts. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is targeting the same districts. Only the 18th Congressional District is held by a Democrat in Rep. Pat Ryan.

“It’s less about any particular issue and about the gamut of where Republicans stand.” Smith said. “And that’s everything from the debt ceiling to be willing to cut Social Security and Medicare, to be willing to cut infrastructure jobs.”

The recognition of the heightened importance of New York has dawned on Republicans as well. Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., House Republican Conference Chair, announced in April that she would be launching a New York “battleground fund" after the fourth-highest-ranking House Republican flexed her fundraising muscles, raising $3 million in the first quarter of 2023. The battleground fund will be dedicated to defending the GOP's newly gained ground in the Empire State.

"It is paramount that we hold those seats," Stefanik told Time. "We are really ground zero politically for maintaining and expanding the House."

New York Democratic chair: Party infighting is ‘disheartening and sometimes frustrating’

After the November elections, New York Democrats conducted a postmortem, and more than 1,000 individuals and organizations signed on to a letter laying the blame at the feet of Jay Jacobs, the state party chair, and called for his resignation.

“Jay Jacobs is not fit to serve as Chair of the State Democratic Party,” read the letter, but Jacobs ultimately survived the calls for his ouster and told USA TODAY he plans to dig his way back through 2024.

“It’s been a very, I’d say at times, disheartening and sometimes frustrating post-election period of time,” Jacobs said, attributing Democratic losses to New York-specific headwinds, including a strong GOP gubernatorial candidate leading the top of the GOP ticket and poor Democratic countermessaging on crime.

As the 2024 election nears and national Democrats step into the Empire State, Jacobs disputed accounts the moves are a sign of a lack of confidence in him as a leader. Instead, Jacobs said, his party is working in tandem with national groups, and the initiatives were a long time coming for New York Democrats, who have long needed the resources after being overlooked.

“This is a reflection of the fact that, whereas in the past, New York has been overlooked and national money has gone everywhere but New York,” Jacobs said. “We also have competitive races which are more purple than blue. We need attention, too.”

A large driver behind strong GOP performance in New York was Republican gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin. Democrat Kathy Hochul won the governor's race over Zeldin by just over 6 percentage points, an uncomfortably close margin for a statewide race in deep blue New York.

“We had a very energetic, good gubernatorial candidate,” New York GOP chair Ed Cox told USA TODAY, who expressed disappointment in Zeldin’s loss but credited Zeldin’s run for boosting several Republicans in highly competitive House races.

Redistricting, even after 2022 midterm elections, is not over in New York

After November, a major point of contention among New York Democrats was a failure in redistricting following the 2020 census when state Democratic lawmakers drew an ambitious map that gave House Democrats a much stronger advantage in the state.

New York’s highest court ultimately rejected the map in a victory for Republicans, ruling the maps were gerrymandered and violated the state Constitution. The court later appointed an independent special master to redraw the maps in a significant defeat for Democrats.

But Democrats are not willing to stick with the maps until 2030. Hochul and Attorney General Letitia James filed a court brief in April asking the New York Independent Redistricting Commission to redraw the maps before the 2024 elections and arguing the map drawn by the special counsel was not done in accordance with the state Constitution.

Jacobs argued the courts should take another look at the maps and echoed Hochul and James’ sentiments, saying New York should not stick with a map drawn by a special master until 2030.

“If your big argument as a Republican was that we have to do this according to the constitutional process,” Jacobs said. “OK. Let’s agree. Let’s go by the process and follow the process.”

Cox thinks otherwise of Democratic efforts to replace the maps, accusing them of sidestepping fair and competitive races. The redrawn maps benefited Republicans but not at the expense of Democrats, Cox said. The red wave in New York, as Cox sees it, was a mix of good politics from Republicans and poor politics from Democrats.

“They do not want to just compete. They want to cheat,” Cox said.

On crime, New York Democrats have to assure voters they can keep them safe, strategist says

Republicans bet big on attacking Democrats for violent crime, but when results started pouring in from election night, GOP candidates floundered and multiple exit polls showed that voters did not rank crime as high on their list of priorities – except New York.

Basil Smikle, a New York-based Democratic strategist and director of the public policy program at Hunter College, said Democrats could have done better on assuring voters they could keep them safe from violent crime. Heading into 2024, Smikle expects the GOP to keep pinning what they claim as rampant crime rates on Democrats.

Voter blocs that have generally trended Democratic have started a very slight tilt to the right that was a major contributor to Republican victories in New York, Smikle said. Groups such as Asian American voters and Jewish voters, according to Smikle, came around for Republicans amid a spike in hate crimes against Asian Americans and a rise in antisemitism.

GOP holds hearing on NYC crime: Democrats say it's to do the bidding for Donald Trump.

“It put Democrats in a very tough spot, but I do think they could have handled it better,” Smikle said, pointing to state Democrats’ reformation of New York bail laws which ended cash bail for most misdemeanors and nonviolent felonies. In the lead-up to the midterms, Republicans accused Democrats of letting criminals run free, and Smikle said Democrats let the message stick.

“There’s a way to talk about crime in a way that is both empathetic but also signals to voters that you will keep them safe,” Smikle said. “That’s a challenge that Democrats faced last cycle and didn’t execute well.”

Jacobs demurred when asked what issues will be most important to voters heading into 2024 and said it was too early to determine. But, unsurprisingly, Jacobs projected confidence the state’s Democrats will sweep the next elections. And for all the blame he has received for 2022, there will not be much of it in 2024, he predicted.

“We’ll win, and I assure you this,” Jacobs said. “When we win back those four congressional seats and we have all these huge victories in New York and everything goes great, you will not a hear a single person say ‘Thank you state party chair.’”

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FULL TEXT: Leni Robredo’s declaration of 2022 presidential bid

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This is AI generated summarization, which may have errors. For context, always refer to the full article.

PRESIDENTIAL BID. Vice-President Leni Robredo speaks to supporters as she announces her presidential bid in the May 2022 elections, at the Quezon City reception house on October 7, 2021.

Jire Carreon/Rappler

Vice President Leni Robredo announced her presidential bid for the May 2022 national elections on Thursday, October 7. 

In her speech, Robredo detailed the factors she considered in making her decision, what would be at stake in the historical polls, and why she decided to gun for higher office in 2022.

Below is the full text of Robredo’s statement in Filipino (as she delivered it). An English translation follows.

Deklarasyon ng kandidatura para sa pagkapangulo ni Kgg. Leni Robredo

Magandang umaga sa inyong lahat.

Puno ng taimtim na pagninilay ang mga nakaraang araw. Salamat sa lahat ng nagparating ng suporta, sumabay sa dasal, at umunawa sa pinagdaanan kong discernment process ukol sa halalan ng 2022.

Sa prosesong ito, walang naging lugar ang ego o pansarili kong interes. Mabigat na responsibilidad ang pagkapangulo, at hindi ito puwedeng ibase sa ambisyon o sa pag-uudyok ng iba. Pagdating sa pamumuno, iisa lang dapat ang konsiderasyon: Ano ba ang pinakamabuti para sa bansa natin?

Lalong matimbang ang tanong na ito dahil sa napakalaking hamon ng pandemya. Ang dami nang namatay. Marami sa atin, ginawa na ang lahat na puwedeng gawin para lang mailigtas ang mahal sa buhay; para makahanap ng pambili ng pagkain; para maitawid ang sarili sa kinabukasan.

Mahaba ang daang tinahak natin para makarating sa araw na ito. Hindi ko binalak tumakbo. Iniisip ko nang bumalik na lang sa probinsiya namin, kung saan marami rin ang umaasa sa aking tumulong magpanday ng pagbabago.

Nitong mga nakaraang linggo, nakipagpulong tayo sa iba’t ibang mga personalidad. Nilinaw ko sa kanila: Handa akong magbigay-daan at tumulong na lang. May alok din silang sumanib na lang ako bilang kandidato, o bilang bahagi ng kanilang administrasyon sakaling manalo sila. Ang tugon ko, hindi ito tungkol sa posisyon; hindi tayo nakikipag-usap para makipagtransaksiyon. Ang pinakamahalaga, magkaisa kami – sa prinsipyo, sa pangarap para sa bansa, at sa landas na dapat tahakin tungo sa katuparan ng mga ito.

Nilinaw ko rin: Buhay at kinabukasan ng Pilipino ang pinag-uusapan natin ngayon .  Pinipilahan ang mga ospital, dumadaing ang mga health workers, at nagugutom ang mga nawalan ng trabaho. Samantala, bilyon-bilyong piso ang inilagay sa mga kuwestiyonableng kontrata habang milyon-milyong Pilipino ang naghihikahos.

Alam na nating lahat ito: Kaya maraming nagugutom, naghihirap, at namamatay, dahil sariling interes at hindi kapakanan ng Pilipino ang number one priority ng mga nasa poder. Ang kawalan ng maayos na pamamahala ang ugat ng ating maraming mga problema, at ito ang kailangang wakasan.

At kung gusto nating tunay na makalaya sa ganitong sitwasyon, hindi lang apelyido ng mga nasa poder ’yung dapat palitan; ’yung korupsiyon, ’yung incompetence, ’yung kawalan ng malasakit, kailangang palitan ng matino at mahusay na pamumuno. Handa dapat tayong iwaksi nang buong-buo ang mga agenda, ang mga interes, ang mismong mga tao at klase ng pulitika na sanhi ng pinagdaraanan ng bansa natin ngayon. Kung hindi ka lilinya nang malinaw, kung makikipagkompromiso ka, kung hindi mo man lang kayang sabihin [na] mali ang mali – nakaninong panig ka ba talaga?

Malinaw kung nasaan ako: Nasa panig tayo ng mga sinasagad ang lahat para iraos ang sarili, ang pamilya, ang kapuwa, mula sa pandemyang ito. Iba-iba man ang konteksto natin, pamilyar sa ating lahat ang pakiramdam ng pagiging nasa laylayan; ang paghahanap ng makakapitan, ’yung handa kang kumatok sa kahit saang pintuan, ’yung halos isigaw mo sa kahit sinong makakarinig: Tulong.

Nanay ako hindi lang ng tatlong anak ko, kundi ng buong bansa. At alam ng lahat ng ibang nanay, ng lahat ng ibang magulang, kung ano ang kaya nilang pagdaanan at isakripisyo sa ngalan ng kanilang mga anak. Naaalala ko nga ’yung maraming kaso ng domestic abuse na hinawakan ko noong nag-aabogado pa ako. Kung paanong tiniis ng mga kliyente ko ang pang-aabuso at pananakit ng asawa nila. Kapag tinanong mo kung bakit, iisa ang sagot: Alang-alang sa mga anak nila.

At naaalala ko kapag, sa wakas, pinili na nilang lumaya – kapag nahanap nila ang tapang na mag-empake, bitbitin ang mga bata, at gawin ang unang hakbang papalabas ng pinto nila. Dahil natauhan na sila na, kung hindi sila maglalakas ng loob, mamanahin lang ng mga anak nila ang pagdurusa.

Ina akong nakikita ang pagdurusa ng minamahal kong bansa. Naniniwala ako: Ang pag-ibig, nasusukat hindi lang sa pagtitiis, kundi sa kahandaang lumaban, kahit gaano kahirap, para matapos na ang pagtitiis. Ang nagmamahal, kailangang ipaglaban ang minamahal.

Buong-buo ang loob ko ngayon: Kailangan nating palayain ang sarili mula sa kasalukuyang sitwasyon. Lalaban ako; lalaban tayo.

Inihahain ko ang aking sarili bilang kandidato sa pagkapangulo sa halalan ng 2022.

Malinaw sa lahat ang hamon na kinakaharap natin. Nakita na nating lahat ang pagsisinungaling at panggigipit na kayang gawin ng iba para maabot ang mga layunin nila. Nasa kanila ang pera, makinarya, isang buong estrukturang kayang magpalaganap ng anumang kuwentong gusto nilang palabasin. Pero hindi kayang tabunan ng kahit na anong ingay ang katotohanan: Kung parehong uri ng pamamahala at pareho ang pagkatao ng mga magwawagi sa araw ng halalan, wala tayong aasahang pagbabago.

Dito tayo poposisyon. ’Yung pagod, ’yung pakiramdam na parang wala kang kalaban-laban, na parang nagawa mo na ang lahat pero kulang pa rin, ’yung pagnanasang makaraos ng taumbayan, bibigyan natin ng bago at positibong anyo. Gagawin natin itong paninindigan, gagawin nating enerhiya. Tatalunin natin ang luma at bulok na klase ng pulitika. Ibabalik natin sa kamay ng karaniwang Pilipino ang kakayahang magdala ng pagbabago.

Alam kong marami sa inyo ang ilang buwan nang kumikilos nang kusa tungo sa layuning ito. Ramdam na ramdam ko ang tiwalang kaloob ’nyo sa akin. Sinasabi ko ngayon: Buong-buo rin ang tiwala ko sa inyo. Kaya tinatawag ko kayo: Gisingin ang natutulog pang lakas.

Tumindig kayo; tinitiyak ko, mayroon ding titindig sa tabi ninyo. Kumausap ng labas sa nakasanayan; palawakin pa ang hanay. Ihayag ang katotohanan na sa kabila ng mga limitasyon, sa kabila ng panggigipit. Sa maliit na tanggapan pa lang natin dito sa Office of the Vice President, napakarami na nating nagawa para makatulong: ang mga pabahay, ang ayuda at medical at livelihood assistance, ang lingap sa mga nasalanta, ang pailaw at classrooms at dorms, ang Vaccine Express, Swab Cab, Bayanihan e-Konsulta, Bayanihan e-Skuwela, TrabaHOPE, Community Marts, free shuttle services, at mga libreng PPE at napakarami pang ibang nagawa gamit ang pinagsanib nating lakas.

Kung naipatupad natin ang lahat ng ito; kung nakarating ang tulong natin sa Agutaya, hanggang San Remigio, hanggang sa ground zero ng Marawi kahit ginigipit tayo, imagine kung ano pa ang kaya nating gawin, kung saan pa ang kaya nating marating, kung maitututok ang buong enerhiya ng gobyerno sa tangi nitong dapat iniintindi: ang kapakanan ng taumbayan.

Anim na taon ang nakaraan, tinanggap ko ang hamon na tumakbo sa pagka-bise presidente. Ngayon, sasabak tayo sa mas malaking laban. Panata ko ngayon: Ibubuhos ko nang buong-buo ang aking lakas, hindi lang hanggang sa halalan kundi hanggang sa mga natitirang araw ko, para ipaglaban ang Pilipinas ng ating mga pangarap – isang lipunan kung saan, kapag nagbanat ka ng buto, kapag ginawa mo ang lahat ng kaya mo, makaaasa ka sa ginhawa at pag-asenso; kung saan, kapag may nadapa, may sasalo sa iyo, may aakay sa iyo patayo; kung saan ang mga plano para sa edukasyon, transportasyon, pagkain, kalusugan, katarungang panlipunan ay naipapatupad dahil may gobyernong matino at mahusay, gobyernong tapat at may pananagutan, gobyernong tunay na inuuna ang interes ng taumbayan.

May landas tungo sa kinabukasang ito. Pero hindi ito maaabot sa pagwawalang-kibo kapag may nangyayaring hindi tama. Hindi ito puwedeng iasa sa iba habang nanonood ka lang; hindi puwedeng pumikit na lang at umasang pagdilat natin nagbago na ang mundo. Ang kinabukasan, pinipili, pinagsisikapan, ipinaglalaban. Kailangan nating piliing humakbang.

Heto ako ngayon, humahakbang. Ipaglalaban ko kayo hanggang dulo. Itataya ko ang lahat; ibubuhos ko ang lahat na kayang ibuhos. Sama-sama tayong tumaya sa laban na ito. Buong bansa tayong tumungo sa isang kinabukasang mas patas at mas makatao; kung saan ang bawat Pilipino ay may pagkakataong umasenso; kung saan ang lakas ng bawat isa ay nagiging nagkakaisang lakas ng lahat – lakas na dadaig sa anumang krisis, anumang hamon, lakas na magiging simula ng ating kolektibong pagbangon. Buong-buo ang tiwala ko, magtatagumpay tayo. Buong-buo pa rin ang pananalig ko sa Diyos at sambayanang Pilipino.

Maraming salamat. Mabuhay ang Pilipinas.

Declaration of candidacy for the presidential elections of 2022, Leni Robredo

The past few days have been filled with solemn reflection. Thank you to all who supported me, prayed with me, and who patiently understood my discernment process for the 2022 elections.

There was no room for ego or self-interest in this process. The presidency is an enormous responsibility, and a decision whether to run for president or not cannot be based on ambition or outside prodding. When it comes to leadership, there should only be one consideration: What is best for our country?

This question takes on more gravity especially given the immense challenge of the pandemic. Many have lost their lives. Many have gone through the experience of having to do everything to save our loved ones; to put food on the table; to survive another day.

The road to today has been long. I had not planned to run. I was already thinking of heading back home to our province, where so many are also relying on me to help bring about change.

Over the past few weeks, we met with different individuals. I made it clear: I am ready to give way and to simply help. They also offered to join forces – as a candidate, or as part of their administration if they succeed. My reply: This is not about positions; this is not a mere transaction. The important thing is to unite – to align along principles, along our shared dreams for the country, and the path that must be taken to achieve these.

I likewise clarified: What is at stake are the lives and the future of the Filipino. Hospitals are filled to capacity, health workers are calling for a timeout, the jobless are going hungry. Meanwhile, billions upon billions of pesos went into questionable contracts while millions of Filipinos struggle.

We should all know by now: There is much hunger, suffering, and death because those in power have prioritized self-interest over the welfare of the Filipino. The lack of good governance lies at the root of our many problems. This needs to end.

And if we truly want to liberate ourselves from this situation, we should change not just the surnames of those in power; the corruption, the incompetence, the lack of compassion must be replaced by competence and integrity in leadership. We should be prepared to take out entirely the agendas, the interests, the very people and kind of politics that is the root of all that we are going through right now. If you will not take a clear line; if you are willing to compromise; if you can’t even say that what is wrong is wrong – then whose side are you really on?

Where I stand is clear: I am on the side of all who are doing what they can to lift themselves, their families, and their fellow human beings from this pandemic. Though our contexts may be different, the feeling of being in the margins should be familiar to all – when you grasp for a lifeline, when you just want to knock on any door, when you cry out to whomever might be able to hear: Help.

I am a mother not only to my three children, but to the whole country. And every mother, every parent, understands what they are willing to go through and sacrifice for their children. I remember the multiple cases of domestic abuse that I handled when I was a practicing lawyer and how my clients endured all the pain and abuse inflicted by their partners. When you ask them why they chose to suffer, the answer was constant: Their children.

And I remember when, finally, they chose to be free – when they found the courage to pack up, bring  their children, and take the first steps out the door. It is because they have realized that if they cannot find within themselves the resolve to leave, their children will only inherit their sufferings.

I am a mother who sees the suffering of my beloved country. I firmly believe: Love is not measured by forbearance alone but by a readiness to do battle.  Whoever loves must do battle for the beloved.

Today, I stand with full resolve: We must free ourselves from the current situation. I will fight. We will fight.

I offer myself as a candidate for the Presidency in the 2022 elections.

The challenge before us is clear: We have all seen the lies and harassment that others are capable of doing to reach their goals. They have the money, machinery, an entire infrastructure that can spread whichever story they choose to spread. But no amount of noise can ever drown out the truth: If the same kind of governance, the same kind of people triumphs in the coming elections, then we cannot expect change to happen.

This is where we make our stand. The people’s exhaustion; the feeling of utmost helplessness, of having done everything and still it isn’t enough; the yearning to get past the suffering – we will give this a new, and more positive form. We will transform it into conviction. Into energy. We will defeat the old and rotten brand of politics. We will return the capacity to bring change to the hands of the ordinary Filipino.

Many of you have been, on your own initiative, working towards this goal for the past few months. I feel the trust you have granted me. Let me tell you now: I also wholeheartedly trust you. I call on you now: Awaken the strength sleeping inside of you.

Take a stand, and I assure you, others will stand beside you. Reach out beyond your usual circles; expand our ranks. Tell the truth that despite the limitations, despite the attacks, our humble office here at the Office of the Vice President has been able to do so much to help those in need: Our housing projects, medical and livelihood assistance, our relief efforts for victims of disasters, our electrification projects, classrooms and dorms; the Vaccine Express, Swab Cab, Bayanihan e-Konsulta, Bayanihan e-Skuwela, TrabaHOPE, Community Marts, free shuttle services, free PPEs, and so many other initiatives that we were able to undertake because of our unified strength.

If we were able to do all of this; if we were able to reach and help the farthest communities despite the harassment, from Agutaya to San Remigio to Marawi’s ground zero; imagine how much more we can do, how much farther we can reach, if we can focus the entire energy of the government where it really should be focused: The welfare of the Filipino people.

Six years ago, I accepted the challenge to run for Vice President. Today, we will take on a bigger fight. I vow today: To pour all of my strength, not just until the elections but for the rest of my days, to the fight for the Philippines of our dreams – a society where every Filipino who toils can be assured of comfort and progress; where someone will catch you and help you up each time you fall. Where plans for education, transportation, food security, health, and social justice are concretized because government is competent and has integrity; because government is honest and accountable; because government truly puts the interest of the Filipino people front and center.

There is a path towards this future. But it cannot be achieved by choosing silence in the midst of wrongdoing. It cannot be left to others while we simply watch on; we cannot close our eyes and hope the world is changed when we wake. The future is something we choose, something we work for, something we fight for. We have to choose to step forward.

Here I am today, taking that step forward. I will fight for you all until the very end. I will put everything on the line; I will give everything I have to give. Let’s place our stakes on this fight together. Let’s move as a country towards a future that is more just and humane; where every Filipino has the chance to succeed; where the strength of each one becomes the singular strength of all – a strength that shall overcome any crisis, any challenge, a strength that shall be the foundation of our collective re-awakening. I trust without any doubt: We will be victorious. I remain steadfast and fully faithful in God and in the Filipino people.

Thank you. Long live the Philippines.

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Talk of an Immigrant ‘Invasion’ Grows in Republican Ads and Speech

Once relegated to the margins of the national debate, the word is now part of the party’s mainstream message on immigration.

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By Jazmine Ulloa

Reporting from Washington, D.C.

A campaign ad from a Republican congressional candidate from Indiana sums up the arrival of migrants at the border with one word. He doesn’t call it a problem or a crisis.

He calls it an “invasion.”

The word invasion also appears in ads for two Republicans competing for a Senate seat in Michigan. And it shows up in an ad for a Republican congresswoman seeking re-election in central New York, and in one for a Missouri lieutenant governor running for the state’s governorship. In West Virginia, ads for a Republican representative facing an uphill climb for the Senate say President Biden “created this invasion” of migrants.

It was not so long ago that the term invasion had been mostly relegated to the margins of the national immigration debate. Many candidates and political figures tended to avoid the word, which echoed demagoguery in previous centuries targeting Asian, Latino and European immigrants. Few mainstream Republicans dared use it.

But now, the word has become a staple of Republican immigration rhetoric. Use of the term in television campaign ads in the current election cycle has already eclipsed the total from the previous one , data show, and the word appears in speeches, TV interviews and even in legislation proposed in Congress.

The resurgence of the term exemplifies the shift in Republican rhetoric in the era of former President Donald J. Trump and his right-wing supporters . Language once considered hostile has become common , sometimes precisely because it runs counter to politically correct sensibilities. Immigration has also become more divisive, with even Democratic mayors complaining about the number of migrants in their cities.

Democrats and advocates for migrants denounce the word and its recent turn from being taboo. Historians and analysts who study political rhetoric have long warned that the term dehumanizes those to whom it refers and could stoke violence, noting that it appeared in writings by perpetrators of deadly mass shootings in Pittsburgh, Pa.; El Paso, Texas; and Buffalo, N.Y., in recent years.

Republicans defend using the word and see it as an apt descriptor for a situation that they argue has intensified beyond crisis levels and one that could help sway voters.

Mike Speedy, the Indiana congressional candidate whose ad used the word, is running on calls to tighten the nation’s southern border. Mr. Speedy, a state lawmaker, traveled nearly 2,000 miles to Yuma, Ariz., to film his ad among the rusty slabs of the border fence. He contended that invasion was an accurate word because it describes a force that overwhelms and does not necessarily involve weapons. He said in an interview that he was not concerned that the word could incite others to violence. “If they act on their hatred, they are a common criminal and they should be put to court,” he said.

The word invasion has appeared in 27 television ads for Republican candidates — accounting for more than $5 million in ad spending — ahead of the November 2024 election, according to early April data from AdImpact, a media tracking firm. That surpasses the 22 uses of the word during the entire 2022 midterm cycle, which totaled nearly $3.3 million in ad spending. During the 2018 and 2020 election cycles, advertisers spent just under $300,000 in four ads that deployed the term.

America’s Voice, an immigrant advocacy group, has tracked the word’s rise in Congress. The group has collected at least 20 examples of Republicans using it in floor speeches this legislative session, up from seven during the last session and none before that. The term appears in four pieces of legislation this year, compared with seven last year and three in 2022.

Analysts who study political rhetoric and extremism have continued to raise alarm that the word invasion and what they describe as similarly inflammatory language regarding immigration plays into replacement theory . The racist doctrine, which has circulated in far right-wing corners of the internet, holds that Western elites, sometimes manipulated by Jews, want to “replace” and disempower white Americans. The shooters in Pittsburgh, El Paso and Buffalo echoed the theory in online posts, and targeted Jews, Hispanics and Black people in their killings.

“An invasion by its very definition is a hostile entrance or a hostile encroachment,” said Juliette Kayyem, a former Obama administration official who now leads the homeland-security program at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government. “You are automatically perceiving people who are fleeing their countries for a million reasons — most of them not hostile — as enemies.”

Representative Alex Mooney, the West Virginia Republican competing against a Trump-endorsed candidate, echoed Mr. Speedy’s view. “There is film footage of people forcing their way into our country along the Texas-Mexico border and the Biden administration is just letting it happen,” he said.

Maca Casado, the Hispanic media director for the Biden campaign, said voters would again reject Mr. Trump’s immigration rhetoric, describing it as “cruel and anti-American politics as usual to distract from an agenda that does nothing to address the things voters actually care about.”

The Trump campaign said that Mr. Biden was allowing undocumented immigrants “to invade our border.”

“By definition, an invasion is an incursion by a large number of people or things into a place,” said Karoline Leavitt, the campaign’s national press secretary. “There is no better way to describe Joe Biden’s open border, which has allowed tens of millions of people to freely enter our country.”

Political speech stoking fears of an invasion at the southern border is as old as the border itself. The jagged, 2,000-mile line dividing Mexico and the United States was born of a war that left each side wary of attack from the other. During the 19th century, with Chinese laborers migrating to work on the railroads, rallying cries of a feared Chinese invasion led to the nation’s first exclusionary immigration laws based explicitly on race. Political leaders stirred similar fears regarding migrants from Japan , Korea, India and southern and Eastern Europe .

Pat Buchanan was among the few ardent users of the word in recent decades, warning of “immigrant invasions” eroding Western society during his unsuccessful campaigns for the Republican presidential nomination in the 1990s. And Gov. Pete Wilson of California, seeking re-election in 1992, ran ads urging Congress to “ stop the invasion ” of Mexican and other Latino immigrants.

Mr. Trump gave the word a new currency. Throughout his presidency, he portrayed migrants as invading masses, and his 2020 re-election campaign pushed the idea through hundreds of Facebook ads. Mr. Trump has made immigration his signature issue for 2024 and has only escalated his remarks, at times using language that invokes the racial hatred of Hitler by describing migrants as “poisoning the blood of our country.”

Other Republicans followed suit. Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas, promising to finish Mr. Trump’s border wall, warned that “ homes are being invaded .” His office has since argued that illegal immigration and drug smuggling are an “invasion” under the U.S. Constitution, authorizing Texas to “engage in war” in the name of border security.

Immigrant-rights groups argue the language has not helped curb border crossings — which started rising under Mr. Trump and slowed early on in the pandemic before increasing again — or aided Republicans in elections. Predictions of a red wave in 2022 fizzled despite Republican fear-mongering about migrants, said Zachary Mueller, senior research director at America’s Voice.

“Yes, it works to mobilize their base,” he said. “But I don’t think the vast majority of people are going to sign up for that level of vitriol.”

John Thomas, a Republican strategist in California, said he did not expect the talk of invasion to fade.

“The word invasion matches the intensity that a lot of the electorate feels on that issue right now,” he said. Its use is “only going to ramp up as we head into November.”

Jazmine Ulloa is a national politics reporter for The Times, covering the 2024 presidential campaign. She is based in Washington. More about Jazmine Ulloa

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Presidential Race

The number of Trump allies facing election interference charges keeps growing, and prosecutors are sending a warning as Donald Trump and his supporters continue  to spread conspiracy theories: that disrupting elections can bear a heavy legal cost.

Trump has vowed to “cancel” President Biden’s policies for cutting pollution from fossil-fuel-burning power plants, “terminate” efforts to encourage electric vehicles , and “develop the liquid gold that is right under our feet” by promoting oil and gas.

A campaign watchdog group filed a formal complaint to the Federal Election Commission accusing Trump’s presidential campaign  and related political committees of concealing payments of $7.2 million in legal fees in violation of campaign finance law.

Other Key Races

Scott Perry, the House Freedom Caucus stalwart and 2020 election denier, is confronting a general election challenge in a central Pennsylvania  district that has grown more competitive.

With the 2024 primary season entering the homestretch — and the presidential matchup already set — hundreds of thousands of Pennsylvanians  cast their ballots  in Senate and House contests  as well as for president and local races. Here are the takeaways .

David McCormick  won an unopposed Republican primary for Senate  in Pennsylvania, securing the party’s nomination two years after former Trump torpedoed his first Senate run by backing his primary rival, the celebrity physician Dr. Mehmet Oz.