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Study: Climate change a major factor in South Africa floods

FILE - Floodwaters wash through a property near Durban, South Africa, Tuesday, April 23, 2019. The fatal floods that wreaked havoc in South Africa in mid-April this year have been attributed to climate change, an analysis published Friday, May 13, 2022 by a team of leading climate scientists said.The World Weather Attribution group analyzed both historical and emerging sets of data from the catastrophic rainfall that led to floods which triggered massive landslides in the Eastern Cape and Kwa-Zulu Natal provinces of South Africa. (AP Photo, File)

FILE - The Vishnu Hindu Temple was severely damaged by flooding on Mhlathuzana river in Chatsworth, outside Durban, South Africa, Tuesday, April 12, 2022. The fatal floods that wreaked havoc in South Africa in mid-April this year have been attributed to climate change, an analysis published Friday, May 13, 2022 by a team of leading climate scientists said. The World Weather Attribution group analyzed both historical and emerging sets of data from the catastrophic rainfall that led to floods which triggered massive landslides in the Eastern Cape and Kwa-Zulu Natal provinces of South Africa. (AP Photo, File)

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MOMBASA, Kenya (AP) — The fatal floods that wreaked havoc in South Africa in mid-April this year have been attributed to human-caused climate change, a rapid analysis published Friday by a team of leading international scientists said.

The study by the World Weather Attribution group analyzed both historical and emerging sets of weather data relating to the catastrophic rainfall last month, which triggered massive landslides in South Africa’s Eastern Cape and Kwa-Zulu Natal provinces, and concluded that climate change was a contributing factor to the scale of the damage.

“Human-induced climate change contributed largely to this extreme weather event,” Izidine Pinto, a climate analyst at the University of Cape Town and part of the group that conducted the analysis, said. “We need to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to a new reality where floods and heatwaves are more intense and damaging.”

The scientists said that extreme rainfall episodes like those in April can now be expected about every twenty years, doubling the number of extreme weather events in the region if human-caused climate change had not been a factor. Rainfall is also expected to be about 4 to 8% heavier, the report said.

The floods resulted in the deaths of more than 400 people and severely affected 40,000 others, with thousands now homeless or living in shelters and property damages estimated at $1.5 billion. The floods also led to the shut down of the Port of Durban for several days, disrupting supply chains.

“The flooding of the Port of Durban, where African minerals and crops are shipped worldwide, is also a reminder that there are no borders for climate impacts. What happens in one place can have substantial consequences elsewhere,” said Friederike Otto, a climate researcher at Imperial College in London, who wasn’t part of the study.

The South African weather service’s Vanetia Phakula said that even though the warning systems that are in place to alleviate the most severe impacts on human life issued an early warning on time, the coordination with disaster management agencies had challenges. The report authors noted that those living in marginalized communities or informal settlements were disproportionately affected by the flooding.

Christopher Jack, the deputy director of the Climate System Analysis group at the University of Cape Town, who participated in the study, says the event exposed and magnified the “structural inequalities and vulnerabilities” in the region.

The analysis used long-established and peer-reviewed climate models to account for various levels of sea surface temperatures and global wind circulation among other factors. The results are consistent with accepted links between increased greenhouse gas emissions and greater rainfall intensity, the scientists said. As the atmosphere warms, it’s able to hold more water, making heavy rainfall more likely.

Earlier this year, as the floods were devastating South Africa, the World Weather Attribution group released another rapid assessment analysis on the intensity of cyclones in southern Africa which concluded that human-caused climate change was also largely to blame.

Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP’s climate initiative here . The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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• Climate change made extreme rains in 2022 South Africa floods ‘twice as likely’

Ayesha Tandon

The extreme rainfall that triggered one of South Africa’s deadliest disasters of this century was made more intense and more likely because of climate change, a new “rapid-attribution” study finds.

Over 11-12 April 2022, intense rains hit the eastern coast of South Africa – causing floods and landslides across the provinces of KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape. More than 400 people died as a result of the floods, which also destroyed more than 12,000 houses and forced an estimated 40,000 people from their homes.

The World Weather Attribution service finds that climate change doubled the likelihood of the event – from an event expected once every 40 years to once every 20. It adds that rainfall over the two-day period was 4-8% more intense than it would have been without climate change.

The study also explores the role of structural inequality in vulnerability to flooding, noting that forced relocation moved marginalised groups of people onto land that was more prone to flooding. 

“In South Africa, the legacy of apartheid is really key,” an author on the study told a press briefing, adding that “even though apartheid was formally dismantled more than 30 years ago, these structural inequalities persist”.

‘Catastrophic’ flooding

Over 11-12 April 2022, close to a year’s worth of rain fell on the eastern coast of South Africa, causing one of the deadliest natural disasters to hit the country in the 21st century.

In the provinces of KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape, the deluge triggered “ catastrophic ” floods and sudden landslides that “ devastated ” the region. More than 12,000 houses were destroyed, forcing an estimated 40,000 people from their homes.

Meanwhile, 630 schools were affected in the KwaZulu-Natal province, impacting around 270,000 students. Overall, the rain drove $1.57bn in damages to infrastructure.

At least 51 people have died after flooding and mudslides in South Africa’s eastern KwaZulu-Natal province, according to local media. President @CyrilRamaphosa is heading to the affected areas pic.twitter.com/ecpm7NrF07 — Bloomberg Quicktake (@Quicktake) April 24, 2019

The South African military deployed 10,000 troops to help search the wre c kage for survivors, the death toll quickly rose into the hundreds.

Authorities say that the city of Durban was the most severely affected, with an estimated 450 people killed in the city. In the Port of Durban – one of the largest shipping terminals in Africa  – “dozens of heavy shipping containers were dislodged from storage and strewn across the Indian Ocean port during the deluge”.

South Africa’s president, Cyril Ramaphosa, called the floods a “catastrophe of enormous proportions,” and “the biggest tragedy we have ever seen”. He declared a national state of disaster on 18 April. BBC News reported at the time:

“On a visit to affected areas in KwaZulu-Natal, the president said climate change was to blame, but some communities disagree. They say poor drainage and building standards have increased the scale of the disaster.”

The timing of the flood made it particularly damaging because South Africa was still recovering from a string of storms and cyclones. “The new disaster comes after three tropical cyclones and two tropical storms hit south-east Africa in just six weeks in the first months of this year,” the Guardian reported.

Extreme rainfall

The intense rainfall was caused by a “ cut-off low ” – a mid-latitude depression, where air of polar origin is cut off from the main subpolar belt of low pressure and cold air. This type of weather system is common in South Africa in April, according to the study – and results in heavy rainfall around one-fifth of the time.

On 7 April, the South African Weather Service issued a warning for disruptive rainfall. And as the storm drew closer, the severity of the warning level was raised . However, the study says “the warnings had limited reach and that the people who did receive them may not have known what to do based on them”.

The rainfall began on 9 April , and reached its peak intensity a few days later. In this study, the authors analyse the impact of climate change on maximum two-day rainfall over 11-12 April.

The map below shows the total rainfall on the eastern coast of South Africa over 11-12 April, where darker blues indicate more intense rainfall. The red outline indicates the area analysed in the study.

The South African Weather Service gave the World Weather Attribution team daily rainfall observations for 194 stations in the affected region. According to the study, 70 of the stations had a continuous string of data over 1950-2022 and five were able to provide the required data required in time for the study.

These stations and recorded rainfall trends are shown in the maps below. Green arrows indicate a trend of increasing rainfall over 1950-2022, while red arrows indicate a decrease. The map on the left shows the 70 stations with suitable data. The map on the right shows the 5 stations selected for the study.

Taking an average over the entire area studied, the rainfall over 11-12 April was a 1-in-20 event overall. However, the rainfall varied highly between different weather stations.

“The rainfall was very high in very small locations,” Dr Frederieke Otto – senior lecturer in climate science at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment at Imperial College London and co-author of the study – told the press briefing, adding that “there were a few locations where at raised more than 350mm over two days”.

For example, due to high rainfall at the Mount Edgecombe and Mapumulo Prison weather stations, the authors calculated return periods of 1-in-200 years and 1-in-30 years for these stations, respectively.

Otto added that “there is a lag between the data being measured and being made available for people to analyse – that is why we can only use these five [stations].”

Vanetia Phakula – a meteorologist at the South African Weather Service – added that compared to other regions in Africa, South Africa has reasonably good data. However, she noted that many stations in South Africa have been forced to close due to lack of funding.

Attribution is a fast-growing field of climate science that aims to identify the “fingerprint” of climate change on extreme-weather events, such as heatwaves and floods. In this study, the authors investigate the impact of climate change on rainfall in South Africa over the 11-12 April period.

To conduct attribution studies , scientists use models to compare the world as it is to a “counterfactual” world without human-caused climate change. This study aims to distinguish the “signal” of climate change in South Africa’s rainfall from natural variability.  The plot below shows a time series of annual maxima of two-day average rainfall over the east coast of South Africa, based on the ERA5 reanalysis dataset , which combines observed data with model simulations. The green line shows a 10-year running average.

The authors conclude that the extreme rainfall was made twice as likely due to climate change – increasing from a 1-in-40 to a 1-in-20 year event. They also find that the event was made 4-8% more intense due to climate change.

(The findings are yet to be published in a peer-reviewed journal. However, the methods used in the analysis have been published in previous attribution studies .)

“We have quite high confidence in the results that we have for this study,” Otto told Carbon Brief at the press briefing. 

The authors conclude that the event was “not unprecedented”, and that additional factors played a role in “making this meteorological event so impactful and worth studying”.

‘Legacy of apartheid’

Kwazulu-Natal is the second-most populous province in South Africa with about 11.5 million people. However, the study notes that not all people were impacted equally by the flood. Poorer and more marginalised communities, such as migrants, were disproportionately vulnerable.

For example, in its coverage of the flooding at the time, the Guardian notes that people living in makeshift settlements were particularly vulnerable to the flooding:

“Poor people living in makeshift settlements built on unstable, steep-sided gorges around Durban were worst affected by the floods. Most have inadequate or no drainage systems and homes are sometimes flimsy shacks that offer little protection against the elements.”

Dr Christopher Jack – deputy director of the Climate System Analysis Group at the University of Cape Town , and science advisor Red Cross Climate Centre – told the press conference that flooding and landslides are a “chronic problem” in South Africa.

When considering vulnerability in South Africa, “the legacy of apartheid is really key”, he explained, adding that the “forced relocation of people” led to deep structural inequalities.

For example, the study highlights the Group Areas Act of 1958 – in which the Durban City Council assigned racial groups to different residential and business sections – resulting in “the displacement of many non-white communities into less desirable and, in some cases, more flood exposed areas”.

“Even though apartheid was formally dismantled more than 30 years ago, these structural inequalities persist, and we still see them represented in our city structures. And we still see them manifest and magnified when events such as this occur.”

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May 16, 2022

Climate Change Doubled the Likelihood of Devastating South African Floods

Hundreds of people were killed and thousands of homes destroyed in Durban after torrential rains unleashed flooding

By Chelsea Harvey & E&E News

Part of Caversham road in Pinetown washed away on April 12, 2022 in Durban, South Africa. The fatal floods have been attributed to climate change.

Darren Stewart/Gallo Images/Getty Images

CLIMATEWIRE | Parts of South Africa are still reeling nearly a month after heavy rains and catastrophic floods wracked the coastal city of Durban and surrounding areas, killing hundreds of people and destroying thousands of homes. Now, scientists say the extreme rainfall was worsened by the influence of climate change.

According to a new analysis by the research consortium World Weather Attribution, the likelihood of an event this severe happening at all has more than doubled because of global warming. The amount of rainfall in this case was also 4 percent to 8 percent more intense than it would have been without the influence of climate change.

The findings are “consistent with scientific understanding of how climate change influences heavy rainfall in many parts of the world,” said lead study author Izidine Pinto, a climate scientist at the University of Cape Town and an adviser at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre.

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A warmer atmosphere can hold more water, allowing storms to dump more rain. That doesn’t necessarily mean storms will happen more frequently — but in many places, they’ll be stronger when they do happen.

This region of southern Africa, he added, is one of those places. The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concludes that extreme rainfall is likely to intensify there as the planet continues to warm.

South Africa is no stranger to heavy rainfall as it is. Durban, in particular, has seen a number of similar disasters in recent years, including a devastating series of floods and landslides as recently as spring 2019.

The latest event was triggered by days of torrential rainfall over South Africa’s east coast, especially the provinces of Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal. Some locations recorded around 14 inches of rain over just two days.

It’s the latest event investigated by World Weather Attribution, which specializes in studying the links between climate change and individual extreme weather events, a field of research known as attribution science. Founded in 2014, the group has analyzed dozens of climate-related disasters around the world, including heat waves, floods, droughts and storms.

Recent studies from WWA have found that climate change worsened the extreme rainfall produced by tropical cyclones in Madagascar, Mozambique and Malawi earlier this year. It made the heavy rainfall and severe floods that devastated Western Europe last year much more likely. And the astonishing heat wave that scorched northwestern North America last summer would have been virtually impossible without the influence of global warming.

Attribution science, itself, is a relatively young field. But it’s advanced rapidly since its start about two decades ago. Scientists are now able to investigate the effects of climate change on the frequency and intensity of a wide variety of different weather events.

They’re getting faster at it, too. While some studies previously may have required weeks or months to complete, scientists now can analyze many kinds of events in near real time.

The study on South Africa uses the same general method applied in many attribution studies. It uses climate models to compare simulations of the real world with simulations of a hypothetical world in which climate change doesn’t exist. The difference between these simulations can demonstrate the influence of global warming on extreme events.

In this case, some locations were affected worse than others. Some of the heaviest-hit weather stations recorded rainfall qualifying as a 1-in-200-year event — an extremely rare disaster. Averaged across the whole region, though, the heavy rainfall constituted about a 1-in-20-year event. That means in any given year, there would be about a 1-in-20, or 5 percent, chance of such an event occurring.

The WWA team opted to look at the region as a whole, where it would have the most data to work with. They found that the influence of climate change has approximately doubled the risk of such severe rainfall. In a world without global warming, in other words, this event only would have had about a 2.5 percent chance of occurring in any given year.

Still, it’s not just the severity of the rainfall that led to its devastating outcome. Structural inequalities in the affected areas also worsened the impact. Many of the people most vulnerable to floods and landslides in and around Durban live in informal settlements and in homes that are easily washed away.

In South Africa, “the legacy of apartheid is really key,” said study co-author Christopher Jack, a climate scientist at the University of Cape Town and adviser to the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre.

“The forced relocation into specific areas across the country — in particular, into cities — have set up these deeply rooted structural inequalities where people have been forced to live in unsuitable areas,” he said. “Even though apartheid was formally dismantled more than 30 years ago, these structural inequalities persist.”

Events like the recent floods underscore the deep connections between climate change and social inequality. Numerous studies have pointed out the disproportionate impacts that global warming and climate-related disasters have on certain populations. As extreme weather events worsen, so will their impacts on the world’s most vulnerable people.

At the same time, even adaptation plans designed to protect vulnerable populations are strained by the speed at which climate change is progressing around the world, Jack noted.

“We can’t seem to do it rapidly enough to avoid event after event with devastating impacts,” he said. “We need to scale up our response to climate change if we want to avoid seeing these kinds of impacts in the future.”

Reprinted from E&E News with permission from POLITICO, LLC. Copyright 2022. E&E News provides essential news for energy and environment professionals.

Why are floods in South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal so devastating? Urban planning expert explains

Full Professor, University of KwaZulu-Natal

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Hope Magidimisha-Chipungu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

University of Kwa-Zulu Natal provides funding as a partner of The Conversation AFRICA.

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The devastation caused by the recent floods in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa demonstrates again that the country is not moving fast enough to adopt appropriate urban planning. It should be integrating risk assessment and management in the design and development of cities. This is becoming more urgent as the frequency of floods increases.

Most South African cities were built a long time ago, before climate change was predicted. KwaZulu-Natal experienced flooding in July 2016, May 2017, October 2017, March 2019, April 2019, November 2019, November 2020, April 2023, June 2023, and now in January 2024. South Africa has a comprehensive national climate change adaptation strategy , and the authorities are aware of flood damage, but are not able to keep up with the repairs.

I recently edited a book on inclusive cities in which I write about the way South Africa has dealt with natural disasters. There is a lack of risk-informed urban planning. This is an approach to designing and developing urban areas with risk in mind. It aims to create resilient cities that can withstand and adapt to various hazards and challenges, such as natural disasters, climate change and social vulnerabilities.

Cities are not resilient

The devastation caused by the recent floods indicates lack of resilience and increasing social vulnerabilities. More than 45 people have died in the last two months ; more than 250 homes have been severely damaged. Severe flooding and landslides caused by heavy rainfall caused the deaths of at least 459 people in April 2022 . These floods displaced over 40,000 people, destroyed over 12,000 houses, and left 45,000 people temporarily unemployed.

The cost of infrastructure and business losses amounted to about US$2 billion. It was one of the worst flooding events in KwaZulu-Natal’s recorded history and eThekwini (Durban) was the worst affected city in the province.

Climate change means more floods are coming

Studies and scientific evidence have pointed to one significant factor contributing to the occurrence of severe flooding: climate change. 2023 was the hottest year ever recorded . The concentration of carbon emissions in the atmosphere has resulted in drastic shifts in weather patterns, leading to increased rainfall in places and subsequent floods.

Read more: South African floods wreaked havoc because people are forced to live in disaster prone areas

In KwaZulu-Natal, the failure to practise risk-informed urban planning has left the province’s roads and buildings, often poorly designed, crumbling. The authorities have failed to maintain drainage systems. They have not put in place flood control measures, such as river channelisation. This is where rivers are dredged, widened and deepened to improve their flow capacity and reduce the risk of flooding.

Flood retention basins, designed to temporarily store excess water during heavy rainfall or flooding events, would also reduce the risk of downstream flooding. Neglecting to put these measures in place contributes to severe flooding and endangers the safety of communities.

Inadequate waste collection and inappropriate disposal of garbage also blocks the drains, worsening the impact of heavy rainfall. Poor drainage systems are clogged with plastic pollution. Robust waste management systems are needed to ensure that water flows properly through these drains.

Read more: How cities can approach redesigning informal settlements after disasters

In some cases, inappropriate land use and the unchecked expansion of urban areas into flood-prone zones have resulted in increased vulnerability to extreme weather. Strong enforcement of land use policies that restrict development in high-risk areas is essential. Municipalities such as the disaster-hit city of eThekwini in KwaZulu-Natal must not allow people to build in flood-prone areas, because once people settle in an area it becomes expensive to relocate them.

What are the solutions?

Frequent flooding in KwaZulu-Natal will be the new reality. The province urgently needs a comprehensive approach, one that involves the local community in decision-making around urban planning and climate change mitigation. An inclusive approach would recognise local knowledge and encourage innovative solutions suitable for the area.

Prioritising mixed-use development, density, and the preservation of green spaces in city zoning and land-use regulations is essential. Urban sprawl must be curbed. The government must establish compact, walkable neighbourhoods that are not constructed on floodplains, coastal zones, or low-lying areas. By recognising areas of high risk, the damage caused by flooding can be minimised.

Water-sensitive urban design must be encouraged as soon as possible. This includes green roofs and permeable pavements, which allow water to pass through the surface layer and be stored or infiltrated into the underlying soil layers.

More parks, urban forests and other green spaces must be established in cities and towns. They serve as carbon sinks: places that store carbon dioxide, acting as natural reservoirs, and regulating the balance of greenhouse gases. Wetlands, riparian zones and forests must be preserved because they can act as natural buffers against flooding, absorbing excess water and reducing the impact on nearby urban areas.

Developing an efficient network of stormwater drains, sewers and retention ponds to control the flow of water during heavy rainfall events is vital. This infrastructure should be regularly maintained and updated.

The province needs to move towards climate change adaptation. Public awareness and education campaigns on the importance of flood-resistant measures will foster a sense of responsibility in preventing flooding.

The authorities must collaborate with other cities that face similar problems. Nations like Japan , which efficiently manages natural disasters, offer useful examples we could follow.

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Flood Risk Predictions in African Urban Settlements: A Review of Alexandra Township, South Africa

• First Online: 30 March 2023

Cite this chapter

• C. C. Olanrewaju 3 &
• M. Chitakira 3  

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Accurate and effective management of floods is necessary to reduce losses from floods. This is achieved by a good knowledge of the drivers of flood risks, which include climate change, societal risk perceptions, urbanization, and associated land-use changes. Sustainable management of floods requires techniques and models that can produce accurate and timely predictions. While vulnerability can increase flood risks, a proper knowledge of the vulnerable population and various coping strategies will help in disaster risk reduction and management. This chapter reviews the relationship between major factors influencing flood risks in Alexandra, a township in the City of Johannesburg in South Africa. It also reviews the preference of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for flood predictions against other models in the identification of the most important variables responsible for floods in the selected study area. The ultimate goal is to prevent loss of life and effectively reduce the cost of flood management. An extensive literature search of published articles available from online databases (Scopus, PubMed and web of science), published theses, and newspaper articles was conducted in this review. This review revealed inadequate risk planning and inefficient coping strategies within the community. As such, help does not reach the affected people on time, resulting in loss of lives. The review also showed a lack of clear strategies in place to reduce the vulnerability of poor community members and that poverty plays a major role in intensifying vulnerability. An argument emerging from the review is that the ANN is a potentially effective flood prediction tool, which enables efficient preparation and mitigation of flood hazard. The review is hoped to provide flood disaster managers and other stakeholders with insights into effective management of flood risks in the study area and other places with related conditions.

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Olanrewaju, C.C., Chitakira, M. (2023). Flood Risk Predictions in African Urban Settlements: A Review of Alexandra Township, South Africa. In: Eslamian, S., Eslamian, F. (eds) Disaster Risk Reduction for Resilience. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-22112-5_10

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Climate change adaptation in South Africa: a case study on the role of the health sector

Matthew f. chersich.

1 Wits Reproductive Health and HIV Institute, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa

Caradee Y. Wright

2 Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council and Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa

Associated Data

Not applicable as it is a review. Data sharing is not applicable to this article as no datasets were generated or analysed during the current study.

Globally, the response to climate change is gradually gaining momentum as the impacts of climate change unfold. In South Africa, it is increasingly apparent that delays in responding to climate change over the past decades have jeopardized human life and livelihoods. While slow progress with mitigation, especially in the energy sector, has garnered much attention, focus is now shifting to developing plans and systems to adapt to the impacts of climate change.

We applied systematic review methods to assess progress with climate change adaptation in the health sector in South Africa. This case study provides useful lessons which could be applied in other countries in the African region, or globally. We reviewed the literature indexed in PubMed and Web of Science, together with relevant grey literature. We included articles describing adaptation interventions to reduce the impact of climate change on health in South Africa. All study designs were eligible. Data from included articles and grey literature were summed thematically.

Of the 820 publications screened, 21 were included, together with an additional xx papers. Very few studies presented findings of an intervention or used high-quality research designs. Several policy frameworks for climate change have been developed at national and local government levels. These, however, pay little attention to health concerns and the specific needs of vulnerable groups. Systems for forecasting extreme weather, and tracking malaria and other infections appear well established. Yet, there is little evidence about the country’s preparedness for extreme weather events, or the ability of the already strained health system to respond to these events. Seemingly, few adaptation measures have taken place in occupational and other settings. To date, little attention has been given to climate change in training curricula for health workers.

Conclusions

Overall, the volume and quality of research is disappointing, and disproportionate to the threat posed by climate change in South Africa. This is surprising given that the requisite expertise for policy advocacy, identifying effective interventions and implementing systems-based approaches rests within the health sector. More effective use of data, a traditional strength of health professionals, could support adaptation and promote accountability of the state. With increased health-sector leadership, climate change could be reframed as predominately a health issue, one necessitating an urgent, adequately-resourced response. Such a shift in South Africa, but also beyond the country, may play a key role in accelerating climate change adaptation and mitigation.

The impacts of global changes in climate are rapidly escalating in South Africa. Unless concerted action is taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, temperatures may rise by more than 4 °C over the southern African interior by 2100, and by more than 6 °C over the western, central and northern parts of South Africa [ 1 , 2 ]. Extreme weather events are the most noticeable effects to date, especially the drought in the Western Cape and wildfires, but rises in vector- and waterborne diseases are also gaining prominence. Global warming, which manifests as climate variability, has already been implicated in increased transmission of malaria, Rift Valley Fever, schistosomiasis, cholera and other diarrheal pathogens, and Avian influenza in the country [ 3 – 10 ]. Studies have documented the considerable impact of high ambient temperatures on mortality in the country, with mortality rises of 0.9% per 1 °C above certain thresholds, and considerably higher levels in the elderly and young children [ 11 , 12 ]. Food security is under threat, with, for example, crop yields likely to decline in several provinces, with concomitant loss of livestock [ 13 ]. Moreover, any negative impacts of climate change on the country’s economy will have major implications for people’s access to food, which is largely contingent on affordability. Food access is already tenuous given the existing levels of poverty and as ownership of arable land is highly inequitable, reflecting the particular history of the country [ 14 ].

The impact of rises in temperature are especially marked in occupational settings, particularly in the mining, agriculture and outdoor service sectors [ 15 – 17 ]. Impacts, including measurable mortality effects, are heightened in those living in informal settlements, where houses are often constructed of sheets of corrugated iron [ 18 – 20 ]. In addition, heat increments are pronounced in many schools and health facilities as these have not been constructed to withstand current and future temperature levels [ 21 , 22 ]. Importantly, all the impacts of climate change affect mental health, in a nation where already one sixth of the population have a mental health disorder [ 23 ].

While climate mitigation efforts, especially a reduction in carbon-based power production, have garnered much attention, focus is shifting to more direct, and shorter or ‘near’ term actions to counter the impacts of climate change [ 24 – 26 ]. These actions – commonly called adaptation measures – range from building the resilience of the population and health system, to preparing for health impacts of extreme weather events and to reducing the effects of incremental rises in heat in the workplace and other settings [ 27 ].

Most importantly, the effectiveness of adaptation pivots on reducing levels of poverty and inequities, especially in women and other vulnerable groups. Simply put: if an individual’s or household’s socio-economic status is robust, they will have a greater ability to withstand shocks induced by climate change. In South Africa, however, about a quarter of the population are unemployed and over half live below the poverty line [ 28 ]. Poverty reduction initiatives, such as the highly successful social grants system [ 29 ], thus lie at the heart of health adaptation. These initiatives already reach 17.5 million vulnerable people in South Africa [ 30 ], could be further extended to counter balance the disproportionate effects of climate change on vulnerable groups [ 31 ]. Equally, having a resilient health system is central to effective climate change adaptation.

While health professionals can play a critical role in advocating for stronger mitigation efforts such as a shift from brown to green energy (the government envisages that in 2030, still two thirds of energy production in the country will be coal-based [ 32 ]), the contribution of the health sector mostly centres around climate change adaptation. Several features of an effective health-sector adaptation response bear mention [ 33 ]. Firstly, national- and local-level policy frameworks and plans are required, supported by adequate resources. In particular, emergency incident response plans are needed for events such as heat waves, wildfires, floods, extreme water scarcity and infectious disease outbreaks [ 34 ]. These response plans set out the procedures to follow in the case of such events and the responsibilities of different actors. Secondly, communication is a key component of adaptation strategies, targeting a wide range of audiences, and using social and other media. Long-term communications strategies, such as “Heat education” campaigns, can raise awareness of the health risks of heat waves, and help prepare individuals and communities to self-manage their responses to increased heat [ 35 ]. Then, more short-term response communication is needed when an actual extreme weather event is forecast, making the public aware of an impending period of risk and what steps are needed to ameliorate that risk. Thirdly, the effectiveness of adaptation interventions rests on the strength of data systems and surveillance. Aside from providing warnings of extreme weather events, heightened surveillance is required of diseases associated with environmental factors, together with concerted efforts to systematically document the effectiveness of adaptation responses and to identify opportunities for improving services.

There is clearly a real opportunity to bring the credible voice and considerable resources of the health sector to bear on climate change policies and programmes [ 36 – 38 ]. It is important to assess the extent to which this is occurring and gaps in this response. Some reviews have examined this issue in South Africa [ 39 – 41 ], but none have done so recently, or employed systematic review methodology. This study fills that gap and presents lessons from the response in South Africa that might be applied in other countries and, indeed, globally [ 42 ]. In recent decades, South Africa has played a leading role in tackling public health issues affecting the African region, especially in the HIV field. The country has the potential, drawing on its research and programme expertise, to play a similar role in climate change adaptation, galvanising action in other parts of the continent. Thus, while the impacts of climate are somewhat unique to each country and even within different parts of a country, lessons drawn from this case study may provide useful insights for other countries in the region.

The paper is divided into two thematic areas. The first covers policy frameworks relating to climate change adaptation, as well as data monitoring and surveillance of climate change adaptation in the country. The second reviews the level of preparedness and actions already taken for extreme weather events, rises in temperature and infectious disease outbreaks. Topics indirectly related to health, such as food security, are not addressed in the paper, though remain of key importance.

Review methods

We systematically reviewed literature indexed in PubMed (Medline) and Web of Science for articles that address climate change adaptation in South Africa. Full details and the PRISMA Flow Chart are described elsewhere [ 43 ]. The Pubmed search strategy included free text terms and controlled vocabulary terms (MeSH codes), specifically: (((((“South Africa”[MeSH]) OR (“South Africa”[Title/Abstract]) OR (“Southern Africa*”[Title/Abstract]))) AND “last 10 years”[PDat])) AND (((“global warming”[Title/Abstract] OR “global warming”[MeSH] OR climatic*[Title/Abstract] OR “climate change”[Title/Abstract] OR “climate change”[MeSH] OR “Desert Climate”[MeSH] OR “El Nino-Southern Oscillation”[MeSH] OR Microclimate[MeSH] OR “Tropical Climate”[MeSH])). This strategy was translated into a Web of Science search.

In total, 820 titles and abstracts were screened by a single reviewer after removal of 34 duplicate items. To be included, articles had to describe adaptation interventions to reduce the impact of climate change on health in South Africa. All study designs were eligible and no time limits were imposed. We excluded articles that were not in English ( n  = 3), only covered animals or plants ( n  = 345), were not on South Africa ( n  = 273), were unrelated to health ( n  = 57) or to climate change ( n  = 56), or were only on climate change impact ( n  = 34) or mitigation ( n  = 31). In total, we screened 86 full text articles for eligibility, 21 of which were included (Fig.  1 ). We also included literature located through searches of article references (one additional paper) or through targeted internet searches. Thereafter, we extracted data on the characteristics of the included articles, including their study design and outcome measures (Table  1 ). In analysis, we grouped studies on similar topics and, where possible, attempted to highlight commonalities or differences between the study findings. Policy documents were located by searching the website of the National Department of Environmental Affairs ( https://www.environment.gov.za ) and the National Department of Health ( http://www.health.gov.za/ ), and by asking experts familiar with these policies in South Africa.

PRISMA Flow Diagram for Review of health-related adaptation to Climate Change in South Africa

Characteristics of studies included in the review

CC climate change

Engagement of the health sector in climate change policies, planning and data systems

We located 14 journal articles on health sector engagement. With these limited number of records, results are presented as a narrative, rather than as a comparison of findings in different parts of the country or across population groups. We first discuss national and local policies and practices, and then turn to assess the climate and health monitoring systems in the country.

In recent years, the national government has developed a series of documents covering key legislative and strategic aspects of adaptation. In 2018, the government released a draft of the National Climate Change Response White Paper which sets out the different ways in which climate change considerations can be integrated within all sectors, including health. This document updates the 2011 White Paper on this topic. More recently, the draft National Climate Change Bill was made available for comment [ 24 ]. Little reference is made to human health and scanty detail is provided on actual implementation of the policies. Additionally, in 2017, the second draft of the South African National Adaptation Strategy was made open for public comment [ 25 ]. This is a ten-year plan, which describes key strategic areas, with measurable outcomes. The strategy acts as a reference point for all climate change adaptation efforts in South Africa, providing overarching guidance across the various sectors of the economy. As such, it seeks to ensure that different levels of government and the private sector integrate and reflect climate change adaptation. The implementation priorities for health are listed as water and sanitation, early warning systems for effective public health interventions during extreme weather events, and occupational health.

While national policies set the stage for lower levels of government and funding prioritisation, much of the actual planning for climate change adaptation occurs at the provincial and local government level. Most importantly, each local area government is charged with developing an Integrated Development Plan every five years, involving many sectors, including health [ 44 ]. Health implications of climate change are mentioned in some of these plans, but not all [ 45 – 47 ]. A survey of Environmental Health Practitioners ( n  = 48), who are at the forefront of implementing these plans, provides insights of the degree to which climate change priorities have been incorporated within these plans [ 48 ]. Though almost all felt that they should play a supportive or leading role in addressing climate change, only half had a budget allocated for climate change and health-related work, and only a third had ever participated in climate change-related projects. Another study involving fieldwork in a range of settings in South Africa reported that, for climate change adaptation plans to be successful, local communities need to be more involved in their design and implementation [ 49 ]. A further study in eThekwini Municipality, KwaZulu-Natal Province noted that few climate change advocates had emerged among local politicians and civil servants, and that decisions made at the local government level seldom took climate change issues into account [ 50 ]. A case study of the Integrated Development Plan in the same municipality examined the working relations between the local government, civil society and private sector actors on climate change initiatives, forming a ‘network governance’ structure [ 51 ]. Having a ‘network’ helped local government shift from ruling by regulations and authority, to a ‘softer approach’, one that ‘enabled’ solutions to climate challenges. For their part, however, the private sector found it challenging to incorporate climate-sensitive actions into their modus operandi and may require financial incentives to adopt mitigation and adaptation measures. Concerns remain that the private sector - and indeed the public sector – view environmental issues as constraints to profit and development, rather than as contributors [ 50 ].

While it appears that national and local policy and planning frameworks can influence programmes and funding allocations, at least to some extent, their impact needs to be monitored closely, using appropriate indicators. These data can help decision-makers to identify programmatic areas to target, researchers to analyse and benchmark programme performance, and civil society and communities to gauge service provision in their area. The growing and shifting burden of climate-sensitive diseases, however, means that the district- and national-level indicators currently used for monitoring disease and service provision may be less relevant in this new era.

A review in 2014 emphasized the need for developing new tools for incorporating data from climate monitoring systems, for example temperature and rainfall, into Demographic Health Information Systems (DHIS) in South Africa, and vice versa [ 39 ]. The tremendous potential of integrated weather-health data is, however, constrained by differences in spatial, temporal and quality of these respective data sources. While weather data are recorded hourly and in small geographical units, [ 52 , 53 ] health data are often only available in monthly units and at district level. Analysing climate data at those resolutions results in a considerable loss of information and thus predictive ability. Challenges in collecting health data – often paper-based – means that these data are often of poorer quality than climate data, though deficiencies in climate data are not uncommon in South Africa [ 12 ]. Despite these limitations, combining climate and health data can assist with seasonal forecasting, and early warning systems for infectious diseases and other climate-related conditions.

The Infectious Diseases Early Warning System project (iDEWS) project, involving Southern African and Japanese researchers, aims to advance all these efforts, and to develop early warning system for a wide range of infectious diseases, based on climate predictions [ 54 ]. Such applications have been developed to support malaria programming in the country [ 55 ], where temporal patterns in temperature, rainfall and sea surface temperature can forecast changes in malaria incidence and the geographical expansion of disease outbreaks [ 3 , 56 , 57 ]. Further, as shown in a study in Cape Town, close monitoring of ambient temperature, can predict spikes in incidence of diarrhoeal disease, allowing health services to prepare for rises in admissions and outpatient visits [ 9 ]. Similarly, another study across several provinces noted that anomalous high rainfall precedes outbreaks of Rift Valley fever by one month and that this finding can be used to forewarn epidemics in affected areas of the country [ 58 ].

In addition to applications around infectious diseases, health and climate data are analysed in multiple-risk systems, such as the South African Risk and Vulnerability Atlas (SARVA) [ 59 ]. This spatial database allow for visualisation of the drivers, exposures, vulnerabilities, risks and hazards across different locations. SARVA provides more than just data outputs, however, and has developed a range of practical climate services for the agriculture sector, for example. Additionally, Heat–Health Warning Systems in the country, based on increasingly sophisticated meteorological systems, have long lead-times, and can alert decision-makers and the public of forthcoming extreme heat events, triggering a graded set of pre-specified actions [ 52 , 60 ].

While adaptation is classically defined as the ability to deal with change, it also encompasses the capacity to learn from it. Doing so requires investments in research and analytical systems, especially among public health practitioners. Of concern, a collaboration across several countries, including South Africa, noted that climate change and environmental health, in general, have not been mainstreamed within curricula at medical schools [ 61 ]. The group noted that, given the limited capacity in this area, international assistance maybe required to develop curricula and teaching materials. Other studies in have documented considerable gaps in knowledge on climate change among university students across disciplines and the limited ability of these future leaders to engage with others on the topic [ 62 , 63 ]. Overall, the research outputs by South Africa scientists on climate change has grown (around 600 academic publications in 2015), but only 3%, or about 20, of these publications make reference to health [ 64 ]. Of more concern, a report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change group, using a narrower search strategy, located only about 20 papers related to climate change and health in the whole of Africa in 2017, constituting well under 10% of the total 300 such papers worldwide [ 65 ]. Reviews have also noted that little interdisciplinary work between meteorology and health has been done [ 66 ]. But, perhaps most importantly, research investigating the performance of interventions to reduce the health impacts of climate change are largely absent [ 40 , 67 ].

Response to extreme weather events and gradual increments in temperature

We located only 8 studies applicable to this section of the review, limiting our ability to provide a comprehensive analysis on the topic at hand. This section covers disaster preparedness and responses, including of the health system, and the population groups, occupations and housing types most vulnerable to heat exposure.

The government of South Africa has developed Disaster Management Frameworks and a National Disaster Management Centre, [ 25 , 68 ] whose responsibilities include directing the country’s responses to disasters and strengthening cooperation amongst different stakeholders. There are, however, concerns that disaster risk reduction systems operate in isolation from other climate change adaptation initiatives in the country, rather than drawing on the strengths of each group [ 69 ]. While there are robust ‘Heat Health’ warning systems in the country, it appears that actual action plans or responses to heat waves require further development [ 35 , 70 ]. Some steps have been taken to develop these systems in local government areas and the private sector. A case study examining preparedness for flooding in the city of Johannesburg provides useful examples of potential synergies between the health and other sectors, but also notes considerable political barriers to cross-sectoral actions [ 71 ]. Another example of preparedness was noted in a report by a mining company that operates in several parts of the country. The company had developed substantial information, communication and technology capacity for risk assessments, and warning systems for flooding and other climate-related disasters [ 72 ].

Efforts to prepare the health system for extreme weather events or infectious disease outbreaks are hampered by weaknesses in health systems, especially in human resources for health in South Africa [ 28 ]. The recent experiences with the Listeriosis outbreak, the largest and longest lasting epidemic documented worldwide to date, brought these concerns to the fore, in particular the country’s ability to mount a swift and systematic response to disease outbreaks [ 73 ]. There were major challenges in collecting data on patient outcomes during the epidemic, for example, where the mortality status was unknown for as many as 30% of affected patients [ 74 ]. This outbreak and recent extreme weather events present many opportunities for learning. It seems, however, that these learning opportunities are often missed. A review of the responses to droughts in the country over the past century found that there have been few attempts to learn from previous droughts, and that responses to each event were largely developed de novo, rather than shaped by long-term planning and lessons from previous similar events [ 75 ].

Several populations groups and geographical areas in South Africa are especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The Draft National Adaptation Strategy in 2017 and the White Paper of 2011, which presented the South African Government’s strategic vision for an effective climate change response mentions the importance of placing women and other vulnerable groups at the centre of adaptation actions. These documents, however, do not expand on this concept and no evidence was located on the differential effectiveness of adaptation interventions among women in the country, and efforts to specifically tailor adaptation measures accordingly [ 31 ]. This is concerning as many of the health and social burdens in the country are underscored by harmful gender norms, with, for example, the country has one of the highest rates of sexual violence worldwide and a very gendered HIV epidemic [ 76 ]. Few studies were located on adaption in occupational settings, many of which may become ‘moderate to high risk’ workplaces as temperatures rise [ 15 ]. A study in Johannesburg and Upington (where daily maximum temperatures may exceed 40 °C) found that outdoor workers experienced a range of heat-related effects [ 17 ]. These include sunburn, sleeplessness, irritability and exhaustion, leading to difficulty in maintaining work levels and output during very hot weather. Aside from commencing work earlier, during the cooler part of the day, no measures had been taken to protect the workers, who believed that sunglasses, wide-brimmed hats and easier access to drinking water would improve their comfort and productivity. In the mining sector in South Africa, several studies have reported that workers’ comfort and productivity can be raised with interventions such as ventilation cooling [ 77 – 79 ]. Of note, insulation within many hospital buildings has been found wanting, but little had been done to address the problem [ 80 ]. Some hospitals have taken steps to increase use of natural ventilation to adapt to temperature increases and as part of efforts to curb use of air conditioning [ 81 ]. Natural ventilation also reduces transmission of multi-drug-resistant tuberculosis, important as the country has one of the highest rates of tuberculosis worldwide [ 82 ].

Improvements in specific types of housing, especially in informal settlements, could reduce the considerable heat-health impacts of these structures, which include mortality [ 18 , 19 ]. We identified several studies on urban health in South Africa, but these did not extend to documenting the health benefits of energy efficient buildings, green spaces, public transport, car-free zones and active transport [ 71 , 83 , 84 ]. Further, many school classrooms in the country are constructed of prefabricated asbestos sheeting and corrugated iron roofs or made from converted shipping containers. A study in several parts of Johannesburg showed that heat-related symptoms are common in these structures [ 21 ]. The authors postulate that improving these structures would increase comfort for scholars and could raise educational outcomes.

The review sums the body of evidence on climate change adaptation in South Africa. We note that some steps have been taken to develop a multi-pronged strategy that cuts across health and other disciplines, and that helps adapt to the already substantial and future impacts of climate change in the country [ 42 , 85 ]. Such steps are being supported by efforts to build the resilience of vulnerable groups, who have limited ability to adapt to droughts, flooding, changes in biomes and other events [ 84 ]. While key policy frameworks are in place, it is difficult to gauge whether these have been actualized at national and local level. Increased efforts to include civil society advocates, local communities and the private sector may accelerate progress with policy implementation. In South Africa, highly-detailed data are available on weather conditions at very fine spatial and temporal resolution. Health data generally have lower resolution and quality. Additional spatial and temporal disaggregation of health information could provide invaluable data, for example, to help identify critical heat-stress thresholds in different settings and to monitor the effectiveness of action response plans. In the meantime, more evaluations, including ‘dry runs’ are needed of the health aspects of emergency response plans to extreme weather events [ 60 ]. Gaps were also noted in research infrastructure and in efforts to reduce heat exposures in some housing types and occupational settings.

The case study presented here provides useful perspectives for other countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Most especially, the findings could feed into the work of the Clim-HEALTH Africa network, which aims to share expertise, and to inform climate-sensitive policies and planning across the region [ 86 ]. While the network has already supported the development of several adaptation plans, the evidence presented here may contribute to future iterations of these plans and other network initiatives.

Strategies for extreme events – and indeed for all interventions related to climate change – need to be informed by an analysis of the implications for those living in poverty, migrants, women and children, among other groups. We noted little evidence of specific ‘targeting’ of adaptation responses to vulnerable groups. There may, for example, be benefits to specifically targeting women, as opposed to men, in early warning systems and disaster reduction plans. This approach is supported by evidence that, as with many other social interventions, it is most effective to distribute relief kits and house building grants to women [ 87 ]. In tandem with other adaptation initiatives and targeting, the overall functioning of the health system needs to be fortified, though there is much uncertainty about how this might be done [ 88 , 89 ]. The goal is to ensure that health facilities remain operational during extreme weather events, serve as places of refuge and support, and can summon the additional capacity required to deal with the impacts of extreme events. An external evaluation of the recent response to the Listeriosis outbreak might identify important lessons for improving the response to future outbreaks or extreme weather events. Potential links between climate change and that outbreak as well as future outbreaks also warrant investigation [ 73 ]. The health sector is also responsible for developing and testing heat-health guidelines for specific settings and populations, such as guidelines for sports events, which stipulate the temperature thresholds at which different sport activities should be cancelled.

Going forward, there are many opportunities to strengthen data monitoring and surveillance systems on climate and health. The Lancet Countdown has developed indicators to monitor national-level progress on climate change in the health sector [ 90 ]. Six of these pertain to adaptation and correspond broadly to the sections of this paper: 1. National adaptation plans for health; 2. City-level climate change risk assessments; 3. Detection and early warning of, preparedness for, and response to health emergencies; 4. Climate information services for health; 5. National assessment of vulnerability, impacts and adaptation for health; and 6. Climate-resilient health infrastructure. This paper suggests that additional work is required in each of these areas in South Africa. These indicators – and the full Lancet Countdown framework – could be used to benchmark the country’s progress against other nations and to pinpoint the specific areas requiring attention [ 91 ]. Monitoring data could be used to produce annual estimates of the burden of disease and health costs that would be averted by more vigorous climate change mitigation or adaptation efforts [ 92 ]. Such disease prediction models have been used with great effect in the HIV epidemic [ 93 ], where they generated considerable pressure on the government and international donors to prioritise actions and resource allocations accordingly. Additionally, given the vulnerabilities of food security to climate change in South Africa, close monitoring is needed of under-nutrition, agriculture and marine productivity [ 14 , 94 ].

An adequate adaptation response is contingent on the progressive accrual of robust evidence. This, in turn, depends on earmarked funding for research on climate change and health, agile and responsive research systems and, indeed, an adequate number of capacitated researchers. Given the growing attention paid to this field, high-quality evidence with compelling findings could rapidly foment policy changes. Moreover, if the quality and volume of research were raised, it will become possible to make evidence-based national policies, as in other health fields. The health sector in South Africa, with its considerable research capacity, is well placed to lead such efforts. To achieve this, however, researchers in other health fields, such as HIV, for example, would need to take on projects on climate change. As a first step, it may be useful to convene consultations of experts in health, the environment and related fields to develop broad plans for taking advantage of opportunities for cross-learning and action. Some targeted research funding for joint health and environmental projects on climate change could have a considerable impact. The iDEWS project offers an important example of such an initiative [ 54 ]. In the long run, research in this field could be sustained by allocating more time to climate change topics in training programmes for health workers and public health practitioners.

While the review highlights some important findings, the limited number of papers located suggests that the country has some way to go to fulfilling its potential leadership role on the continent, and indeed globally. One area that health practitioners in South Africa could lead on is the promotion of a ‘meat tax’, given their pioneering work on the ‘sugar tax’ [ 95 ]. Curbing the intake of ruminant meat is a key climate change mitigation strategy and would lower cancer risks, among other health benefits [ 96 ]. This is important in South Africa, where an estimated total of 875,000 tons of beef are consumed annually [ 97 ], producing 648 gigagrams of methane [ 98 ]. The principal arguments for a sugar tax – and indeed for tobacco and alcohol taxes – hold for ruminant meat: harm to self and others, and the considerable cost burdens on broader society [ 99 ]. In this case, the harms are mediated through environmental destruction, a change in climate and cancer, amongst others [ 95 ]. Such policies are, however, likely to be vigorously opposed by the meat industry in South Africa, and public health and environmental and social justice experts in the country will need to rally together [ 26 ]. Bringing together the complementary skills of these experts has the potential for powerful synergies and for drawing additional researchers into the climate change and health arena. Similarly, broadening the scope of climate change adaptation to encompass existing programmes that have an indirect impact on climate change adaptation would also increase the number of climate adaption workers. This would also assist in mainstreaming climate change into existing health programmes, and highlight additional ways that the health sector has successfully responded to the problem. Increased attention to these successes might demonstrate the extent to which the sector is leading the field and its potential contribution to overall adaptation efforts in the country.

The study has some limitations. The limited number of papers included in the review ( n  = 22) and the heterogeneous nature of the evidence constrained our ability to draw overall conclusions about the adaption response to date. Likely many additional studies on the topic are published in grey literature sources or unpublished and would thus not be in our search. Moreover, the search would not have located studies of interventions by the health sector that indirectly reduce the impact of climate change, but have not been framed as such. These intervention may include socio-economic initiatives that build financial resilience of households, improvements in housing and control of infectious diseases.

In fact, explicitly framing existing programmes that have an indirect impact on climate change adaptation as contributing to climate change adaptation.

The review highlights several important gaps in adaptation practices. While policy and planning frameworks for climate change at national, provincial and local level do make mention of health priorities, the health sector does not yet appear to be viewed as an essential platform for adaption measures, and health concerns appear to be accorded low priority. We did, however, note several important examples of health sector involvement in adaptation initiatives within local area government and in occupational settings. Importantly, there have been few rigorous evaluations of the effectiveness of actual interventions on climate adaptation for the health sector; most studies are descriptive in nature. Perhaps the largest knowledge gap is evidence around the effectiveness of disaster management systems and the level of preparedness of these systems for extreme weather events. The lack of studies on that and other topics may reflect the nascent nature of the field and that the priority given to climate-sensitive conditions in training for health workers and public health practitioners has not reflected the present and future burden of these conditions.

Clearly, interventions targeting the direct impacts of climate change need to occur in tandem with actions to shore up the resilience of the population and health system. Many health sector initiatives targeting those areas already contribute to climate adaptation, albeit indirectly so. Highlighting the successes of these initiatives and explicitly framing them as part of climate adaptation could mainstream climate change into existing programmes and provide examples of the ways in which the country is already successfully responding to the problem. Reframing in this manner may generate the leadership and momentum necessary for making rapid advances in this field.

Indeed, increased health sector leadership and lobbying may prove pivotal in advancing the adaptation field per se. The explicit framing of climate change adaptation and mitigation as critical to protecting the health of the nation may secure a more vigorous policy and programmatic response by government, and strengthen the engagement of civil society and communities [ 36 ]. Health could be placed firmly at the centre of policies for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Equally, effective leadership would mainstream climate change considerations into all policies for health [ 37 ]. High-quality research, involving a range of disciplines and backed by local and international funding, could go a long way to securing these changes.

While the country has led the way globally in HIV and several other arenas, it has yet to fully assume a leadership role in this field. With increased focus, the health sector could use its considerable influence to advocate for policy change and improved climate governance: it’s time for health to take a lead.

Acknowledgements

Neville Sweijd, Helen Rees, Fiona Scorgie for technical inputs.

This research received no external funding.

Availability of data and materials

Abbreviations, authors’ contributions.

MFC conceptualized the article and wrote the first draft. CW contributed to writing the drafts of the paper and provided critical review of each draft. Both authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Ethics approval and consent to participate

Not applicable as it is a review

Consent for publication

Competing interests.

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

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Related links, jàmbá: journal of disaster risk studies, on-line version  issn 1996-1421 print version  issn 2072-845x, jàmbá vol.10 n.1 cape town  2018, http://dx.doi.org/10.4102/jamba.v10i1.40 .

ORIGINAL RESEARCH

Managing wetlands for disaster risk reduction: A case study of the eastern Free State, South Africa

Johannes A. Belle I ; Nacelle Collins II ; Andries Jordaan I

I Disaster Management Training and Education Centre for Africa, University of the Free State, South Africa II Free State Department of Environmental Affairs, Bloemfontein, South Africa

Correspondence

This article investigated the knowledge and practice of a nature-based solution to reduce disaster risks of drought, veld fires and floods using wetlands in the eastern Free State, South Africa. A mixed research method approach was used to collect primary data using three data collection tools, namely questionnaires, interviews and field observations. Ninety-five wetlands under communal and private ownership as well as a few in protected areas were sampled, with their users completing questionnaires. The study showed that communal wetlands were more degraded, while wetlands in protected areas and in private commercial farms were in a good ecological state. An extensive literature review reveals that healthy wetlands are effective buffers in reducing disaster risks such as drought, veld fires and floods which are recurrent in the study area. Therefore, through better land-use and management practices, backed by education and awareness, wetlands could be good instruments to mitigate recurrent natural hazards in the agriculturally dominated eastern Free State in South Africa.

Introduction

The eastern Free State where this study was conducted is located in the Free State province, which is one of the nine provinces of the Republic of South Africa. The demarcation of the eastern Free State in this study did not follow any specific political or ecological boundary but was arbitrarily designed to closely follow the 28 ºE meridian and a vertical line that passed through the 500 mm - 700 mm isohyets; east of this line, rain-fed agriculture (the dominant activity in the Free State province) is feasible. The demarcated study area also separated the dry grassland in the west from the moist grassland in the east (Collins 2011; RSA DST 2010) (see Figure 1 ). The chosen study area was also large enough to include many wetland types in the province.

Definition of wetlands

It is not easy to define a wetland because they are of different types, and delineating wetland boundaries is problematic (Barbier, Acreman & Knowler 1997). Wetlands cover a wide range of habitats from freshwater marshes and wet meadows to estuarine mangroves and swamps (Kotze 2008). Known as mokhoabo in Sesotho, umgxobhozo in isiXhosa, vlei in Afrikaans and wetlands in English, wetlands have different names in South Africa. The South Africa National Water Act (1998) defines a wetland as:

Land which is transitional between terrestrial and aquatic systems where the water table is usually at or near the surface, or land that is periodically covered by shallow water and which in normal circumstances support or would support vegetation that is typically adapted to saturated soils. (p. 9)

This is a descriptive definition which uses hydrology, soil and vegetation to define a wetland. The above definition differs slightly from that of the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands definition whereby dams, rivers and shallow marine areas are considered to be wetlands. Generally, wetlands are transitional areas between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems; and water, soil and vegetation are often used to delineate a wetland (Ayoade 2004; Pennington & Cech 2010; Ramsar Convention Secretariat [RCS] 2010; Republic of South Africa 1998; Wetland International [WI] 2015). The definition adopted in this article is that of the Republic of South Africa Water Act (1998).

Functions of wetlands

Wetlands provide a variety and valuable ecological services to the local communities and these services are normally grouped into provisioning, regulating, cultural and supporting services (Kotze 2008; Millennium Ecosystem Report [MA] 2005; RCS 2010; The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity [TEEB] 2010). Some authors refer to wetlands as the kidneys of the landscape because of their functions in the hydrological and chemical cycle or as biological supermarkets because of the extensive food web and rich biodiversity that they support (Barbier et al. 1997; RCS 2010; Russi et al. 2013; TEEB 2010). Wetlands directly reduce disaster risks through the natural regulatory processes and indirectly by providing scope for local livelihoods and reducing poverty, which are documented causal factors of disasters (Coppola 2011; Renaud et al. 2016; Renaud, Sudmeier-Rieux & Estrella 2013; United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction [UNISDR] 2015; Wisner et al. 2004). The specific role of wetlands as an ecosystem in reducing disaster risks, adapting to climate change and supporting sustainable development was highlighted directly and indirectly during three important international agreements signed in 2015. These agreements included the Sendai Framework for Disaster Reduction 2015-2030 (UNISDR 2015), the Paris Climate Change Agreement (UNFCCC 2015) and the Sustainable Development Goals (UNDP 2015).

Generally, healthy and well-managed wetlands reduce disaster risks by acting as natural buffers against multiple hazards (Dudley et al. 2015; Partnership on Environment and Disaster Risk Reduction and Centre for Natural Resources and Development [PEDRR & CNRD] 2013; RCS 2010; Renaud et al. 2013). Healthy wetlands also build local resilience against disasters by sustaining local livelihoods through the provision of important products like wild fruits, vegetables, fish and padi rice to the local population (Kotze 1997, 2008; MA 2005; PEDRR & CNRD 2013; RCS 2010). The regulatory role of wetlands such as climate regulations also helps to reduce the intensity and frequency of weather and climate-related hazards (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] 2014; UNISDR 2015; WI 2016).

Flood plains and valley-bottom wetlands attenuate flood water by dispersing the incoming water, breaking the energy of the water and slowing down the speed of movement of the water through the wetland (Collins 2006; RCS 2010; Renaud et al. 2016). In addition, flood plains, valley bottoms and even seep wetlands mitigate dry spells and drought by providing water and fodder for grazing (Kotze 2008). Peat wetlands are effective for carbon sequestration and thus reduce global warming and the associated climate-related disasters like storms (IPCC 2014; UNISDR 2015).

Wetlands in the study area

According to the National Freshwater Ecosystem Priority Areas (NFEPA), the Free State has the highest number of wetlands in South Africa (South African National Biodiversity Institute [SANBI] 2010 in Collins 2011). There are about 54 000 natural wetlands in the Free State. These wetlands comprise valley-bottom units, flood plains, slopes and pans ( Figure 2 ) (Collins 2006; Ollis et al. 2013). The dominant wetlands in the eastern Free State are channelled, valley-bottom wetlands and an estimated 2624 of such wetlands were identified in the study area (Collins 2011).

In this study, all but one of the 95 sampled wetlands were valley-bottom wetlands and were divided into private and communal wetlands whereby all wetlands under an identifiable ownership were considered to be private while those with collective ownership were classified as communal.

Identified disaster risks facing wetlands in the study area

Disaster risk is a product of a hazard affecting a vulnerable community or system that lacks coping or adaptive capacities (Birkmann et al. 2013; Coppola 2011; Wisner et al. 2004). Many disaster risks that exist in the Free State province have impacts or potential impacts on wetlands. The Free State Provincial Disaster Management Plan identified the following hazards that pose disaster risk in the province: drought, floods, veld fires, structural fires, epidemics, extreme cold, heat waves, hail, windstorms, tornadoes, earthquakes, sinkholes, hazardous materials (Hazmats), transport accidents, seismic movements, dam failures, snow, mudslides and water contamination (FSPDMC 2007). Wetlands can play a great role in mitigating hazards, especially those associated with drought, floods and veld fires (Kotze et al. 2007; Renaud et al. 2016; WI 2016).

Thabo Mofutsanyane is the main district municipality in the eastern Free State. From the various presentations from the districts at the quarterly National Disaster Management Advisory Forums, it is clear that droughts and veld fires are among the top four recurrent risks in the eastern Free State, the other two being epidemics and floods (FSPDMC 2007). Therefore, having many wetlands in the study area where there is a recurrent risk of drought, floods and veld fires makes a pertinent study on how knowledge and careful management of these wetlands could reduce disaster risks in the eastern Free State.

A multidisciplinary and mixed-method approach was used to collect primary data. Mitigating disaster risks requires the integration of knowledge from many spheres, which include the natural-, engineering- and social sciences (Birkmann et al. 2013; IPCC 2014; Takeuchi et al. 2014). The mixed-method approach made it easy to generate quantitative and qualitative data, and to incorporate a combination of post-positivism and interpretivism paradigms in the study (Bertram & Christiansen 2014; Creswell 2003, 2014; Okeke & Van Wyk 2015).

Understanding the risks and vulnerabilities of wetlands was crucial in this study. Any risk is a product of the hazard (H) and vulnerability (V) compared with the coping or adaptive capacity (C) of the community, structure or system (R = H × V/C) (UNISDR 2004; Wisner et al. 2004; Wisner, Gaillard & Kelman 2012). While the hazards were identified in this study (drought, floods and veld fires), there was a need to assess the vulnerability and adaptive capacities of the wetlands to determine their abilities to mitigate these hazards. In disaster management, risk is seen as the probability of the occurrence of a harmful event with negative consequences (UNISDR 2009). A hazard is seen as a dangerous phenomenon, substance, human activity or condition that can negatively affect humans, their social organisation or their environment, while vulnerability is the degree to which a society or system is susceptible to the impact of a hazard (UNISDR 2009). The coping or adaptive capacity is the inherent and organisational ability of a community or system to absorb and resist the impacts of hazards (Coppola 2011; UNISDR 2009). The ecological status of a wetland or how intact the wetland is as a system influences the vulnerability and the ability of the wetland to cope with natural hazards like floods, veld fires and drought.

Ten indicators were designed and used (adapted from Oberholster et al. 2014) to observe 21 wetlands in the study area to determine the ecological status of these wetlands. The 10 indicators included the wetland size, land-use type, hydroperiod, vegetation cover, alien species, pollution, sedimentation, grazing carrying capacity, activities within the wetland and bank stability and/or erosion. These indicators were not weighted, but their varying influences on wetlands was noted. The indicators were based on easily observable clues in a wetland even by a non-wetland specialist. Each indicator was scored from the best value of 5 to the worst value of 1 (see Appendix 1 ). A zero score was not allocated, because it could mean the indicator did not exist in the wetland at all. The total score was 50, which was later converted into a percentage and grouped into four ecological status categories: excellent = more than 75%; good = 65% - 75%; average = 50% - 64%; poor = less than 50%.

Three data collection tools were used, comprising questionnaires, interviews and field observations. A total of 176 valid questionnaires from 93 communal wetland users and 83 private wetland users were analysed. For the purpose of assigning responsibility and accountability in wetlands management to an identifiable individual, only two categories of wetland owners and/or users were applied. Where the owner of the wetland could be identified, such a wetland was classified as 'private'. The private wetland users therefore included those on private commercial farms and government-owned wetlands (i.e. those located within conservation agencies like SANParks), to distinguish them from communally owned wetlands which were collectively owned without an identifiable manager. In total, 95 wetlands were sampled. Face to face and telephonic interviews were conducted with five wetland specialists, eight environmental and disaster management specialists and two environmental law specialists in the Free State province. Lastly, though field observations were carried out in most of the wetlands during the administration of the questionnaire, detailed observations were carried out on 21 randomly selected wetlands (7 communal wetlands, 11 privately owned wetlands and 3 protected wetlands). The communal wetlands were located in Monontsa, Bethlehem, Clarens, Heilbron, Petrus Steyn, Edenville and Frankfort, and the privately owned wetlands in Swineburne and Van Reenen's Pass in the Harrismith area. The three protected wetlands included Seekoeivlei, Golden Gate and the Eskom wetland systems at Ingula Power Station. Furthermore, a pilot study was conducted in six wetlands: two in protected areas, two on communal land and two on private land. Three Master's students, three PhD students and three senior researchers tested the questionnaire before the pilot study. These measures added validity and reliability to the data (De Vos et al. 2005; Polit & Hungler 1999; Saunders, Lewis & Thornhill 2000).

The SPSS version 23 was used to analyse the quantitative data, while the qualitative data were inductively analysed into dominant themes that emerged from the raw data (Creswell 2014; Maree 2007). The Kendall's W Test was performed to explore what the private wetland owners perceive as the current and future major threats to their wetlands as part of the vulnerability assessment of wetlands in the area.

Demographics of the respondents

The demographic data of communal wetland users showed that more men than women completed the questionnaire, that they were of middle age and that they were mostly unemployed or self-employed ( Table 1 ).

Most of the private wetland owners were male, with a median age of between 45 and 54 years. Many (77.1%) had used the wetland for more than five years, of which 60% had more than 10 years' experience ( Table 2 ). Most private wetland owners were commercial famers, whilst communal wetland users mostly practiced communal, small-scale grazing.

Wetlands threats, risks and vulnerability

Communal wetland respondents indicated that flood and veld fires affect them more, while private wetland owners felt that they were more affected by floods than drought as they use their wetlands mostly for commercial agriculture ( Table 3 ). It should be noted that primary data were collected during the onset of the 2014-2016 prolonged drought that affected the whole of southern Africa including the eastern Free State. Possibly, the same data collected from the same respondents after the drought could see drought at the top of their risk profile, given the huge impacts that the 2014-2016 drought had on the area.

Besides the above mentioned threats, private wetlands owners also perceived a lack of awareness on wetland benefits to be a major threat to their wetland ( Table 4 ).

Inappropriate land-use practices that lead to wetland degradation

The following activities were reported by respondents as poor wetland management practices that led to wetland degradation:

Overgrazing. This practice stemmed from overstocking livestock and game as well as the use of the wrong game species. Overgrazing was generally observed during the dry winter season.

Poor fire management planning as well as uncontrolled runaway fires.

The introduction of both invasive and alien species in and around the wetland.

The drainage of wetlands for agricultural practices, human settlement and road construction.

The construction of dams for irrigation and electricity production.

The pollution of wetlands from heavy agricultural chemicals and poor waste disposal.

The uncontrolled harvesting of wetland vegetation, herbs and medicinal plants.

Poor grazing practices such as grazing the permanently wet areas of the wetlands, which causes animal trampling.

Ecological status of case study wetlands

The ecological status of a wetland was used as a proxy to assess its level of vulnerability to imminent hazards and consequently its ability to mitigate those hazards. Respondents were requested to score the current state of their wetlands against the key wetland parameters of vegetation, water and soil ( Table 5 ). The results showed that 67.5% of private wetlands owners reported that their wetland vegetation was either in a good or very good ecological state, 63.9% said the hydrology in their wetland was either good or very good while 60.3% reported that the soil was either good or very good. As indicated later, the hydrology and vegetation of the communal wetlands were in a poor state. This information supported what was observed in the field.

The ecological status derived from the 10 indicators is summarised in Table 6 . All the communal wetlands except one had a poor ecological status. In contrast, privately owned wetlands had either an excellent or good ecological status, with only one wetland having an average ecological status.

The results from field observations tally with the interview results from five wetland specialists. Based on their past experiences, all specialists reported that protected wetlands at Golden Gate, Mamel and Ingula were in a very good condition apart from a few head-cut erosions. They also reported that most wetlands on private commercial farms were in a good state. Those identified as having problems were being rehabilitated by the Working for Wetlands Programme. Communal wetlands were generally in a poor state despite efforts to rehabilitate some of these areas. The main problems that were reported in communal wetlands were open, uncontrolled grazing and other commercial activities like sand excavation within the wetlands. The conversion of the Dihlabeng wetland in Bethlehem into a mall was also cited.

Managing wetlands for disaster risk reduction

The communal respondents responded negatively when asked whether wetlands help them to reduce the common hazards in the area (veld fires, drought and floods). Their responses are summarised in Table 7 . However, private wetland owners agreed that they manage their wetlands in order to reduce the common disaster risks of drought, veld fires and floods as indicated in Table 8 .

In private wetlands, 69.9% had no wetland management plans, while 12% had plans that were seldom used and revised. A high percentage of these wetlands (85.5%) had a limited protection status or none at all. Another 75.9% reported that they did not know the threats facing their wetland, and therefore could not address the threats or insufficiently addressed them. Another 85.5% either had no mechanisms in place to control inappropriate land-use activities, or the mechanisms were ineffectively implemented. What was noted from these responses was that there was no comprehensive and holistic knowledge of wetland threats in the area. Besides the threats of drought, floods and veld fires, there are other stressors that affect wetlands in varying degrees in the area - drainage and land-use conversion of wetlands. The conversion of the Dihlabeng wetland in Bethlehem into a mall, climate change, ineffective implementation of policies related to wetlands, ignorance of the functions and values of wetlands and so on were either observed or reported during interviews.

Suggestions to better manage wetlands

Table 9 summarises respondents' suggestions on ways that wetlands could be utilised and better maintained. Providing education and training as well as more effective laws and policies ranked the highest.

Dominant wetland uses in the area

The field observations showed that most of the wetlands in the study area were used for grazing. For example, all communal wetlands were used for small-scale grazing. A few wetlands were cultivated - mainly for maize, beans and sunflowers - and only two wetlands were used entirely for conservation. This information is summarised in Table 10 .

Wetland risks

Respondents from communal wetlands indicated that they were more vulnerable to the risk of floods than veld fires and drought. This can be explained by many factors. First, the communal wetlands that were sampled were channelled, valley-bottom wetlands, which easily collect and channel rainfall in the catchment. Second, unlike flood plain wetlands, valley-bottom wetlands are less efficient in attenuating flood waters and mitigating the risk of floods (Kotze 2008; RCS 2010). Third, there are many informal settlements within and around the communal wetlands with a high risk of floods, even with the slightest bank overflow. Last, surface-concreting from the informal settlements, road constructions and draining of wetlands for various other reasons increase the risk of floods around communal wetlands as observed in Heilbron, Monosta and Petrus Steyn. Here, head cut in the wetlands could easily be attributed to settlement and road concreting, which increased the volume and energy of the flow of water entering the wetlands. These wetlands, including those in private holdings, however, play a better mitigation role against the risk of fires and drought, given the continuous presence of water or moisture. This is valid even in winter as the study area falls within the summer rainfall zone of South Africa. The presence of water or moisture in wetlands even during dry spells and droughts could be used to motivate for wetland conservation. The risks of climate change, overgrazing and uncontrolled fires were also reported. It should be noted, however, that data were collected before the 2014-2016 drought (the worst drought in 50 years in the area) that could possibly have altered the responses.

Foremost in the ranking of perceived threats to private wetlands was the lack of awareness of wetland benefits, followed by uncontrolled fire and then overgrazing. The Kendall's W Test confirmed the perception that there was an urgent need for education and training on wetland management. The test statistic for the ranking of the threats revealed that about 93% of the private wetland owners agreed to a ranking order as provided in Table 4 . The Chi-square statistic of 92.91 was highly significant at 1% level, suggesting that the ranking was valid and efficiently estimated. This further showed that the individual threats identified in the study jointly and significantly explain the actual threats to the eastern Free State wetlands.

From the field observations, six out of seven communal wetlands were in a poor state, with only one in an average ecological state. All the wetlands in protected areas were in an excellent ecological state, with one of them (Seekoevlei) being a Ramsar site. The Ingula wetland (one of the protected wetlands) could eventually qualify for a Ramsar site designation, given its present status and ecological functions. Wetlands found on private commercial farms were clustered around a good ecological status. One of them was in excellent ecological health, and this wetland is also a heritage site. Most protected wetlands were therefore in a very good to excellent ecological status; those on private land were in an average to good ecological status; and those on communal land mostly had a poor ecological status ( Table 6 ). This state of affairs could be linked to many factors, ranging from ignorance, land title and private interest to management style and non-existence or weak implementation of wetland laws or environment-related laws. While monitoring is required to maintain the excellent ecological state of protected wetlands, it would be good management practice to improve the status of wetlands on private commercial farms from good to excellent. Communal wetlands, however, need the most careful planning.

Wetlands management for disaster risk reduction

Wetlands can be managed to reduce the impact of disaster risks as well as to adapt to climate change. This is popularly referred to as the ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation (Eco-DRR/CCA) approach, (PEDRR & CNRD 2013; Renaud et al. 2013; UNEP 2009).

Most of the communal wetland users do not perceive wetlands as having any mitigation effects on the common hazards of drought and veld fires in the area. They would therefore not possibly manage these wetlands for disaster risk reduction. This situation again demonstrates the lack of awareness and education among the communal wetland users regarding the potential of wetlands to reduce many of the disaster risks in the area. This lack of awareness may contribute to the degradation of most communal wetlands. One of the most reported problems by the communal wetlands users who completed the questionnaire was uncontrolled fire; yet, these users do not see wetlands as a possible fire mitigation factor, even by the sheer presence of water in some parts of the wetlands in winter. Wetlands can be used as effective fire breaks (FSPDMC 2007). The private wetland owners agreed that they manage their wetlands in order to reduce the common disaster risks of drought, veld fires and floods. Most private wetland users try to avoid overgrazing so that their wetlands continue to provide fodder even during dry spells and droughts. They also use structural measures like gabions to break the force of water entering their wetlands and get an even spread of water in the wetland. Some use wetlands as fire breaks to mitigate the impact of runaway fires. This holistic view was contrary to what was reported and observed in the communal wetlands.

Suggestion to better manage wetlands

Top on the list of suggestions (based on frequency of suggestions) from both private and communal wetland users was the need to provide education and training on the importance, conservation, protection and wise use of wetlands ( Table 9 ). This was followed by formulating and implementing stringent laws on wetlands. The latter should possibly be the joint effort of the government and the local municipalities. Third on the list was the plea that dumping sites, rubbish bins and other forms of pollution control be put in place. This is important as communal wetlands were observed to be heavily polluted, especially from domestic waste. All the communal wetlands that were sampled were surrounded by informal settlements that generate domestic waste. There were suggestions that the government should relocate the people who settle in wetlands and provide better livelihoods for them. The land issue in the study area, as in the rest of South Africa, is imbalanced and complicated, having its root causes in the discriminatory era of apartheid. The provision of fodder, especially in winter, was also mentioned, as was job creation and the provision of water-saving devices like water tanks, which could ease pressure on wetlands that were used for water harvesting. Fencing the wetlands can be very expensive and was the least important on the list of suggestions.

The common ownership with no control over communal wetlands makes the management planning of wetlands almost non-existent in the study area. There were no management plans, written or unwritten, for communal wetlands and there was no observed control of illegal activities such as pollution. For example, at the Monontsha wetland, a channel was constructed to direct waste from a pig sty into the wetland, causing pollution to downstream users. Private commercial farmers reported that they had management plans for their wetlands although these plans were not documented and regularly revised as opposed to those in protected areas.

With no adequate education, awareness and training on wetlands management, the absence of management plans in most wetlands (no specific wetland policy to guide wetland management in the study area), points to the fact that the fate of the majority of these wetlands depends on the ingenuity, guess work and experience of the individual users. Better management plans and processes were observed in the three protected and conserved wetlands that were included in this study (Seekoeivlei, Golden Gate and the Eskom wetland systems at Ingula Power Station). The Working for Wetlands Programme has, however, been rehabilitating many wetlands in communal and private commercial farms in the area, but this approach is too reactive and spontaneous.

Conclusion and recommendations

Communal wetlands are in a very poor ecological state as opposed to protected wetlands and those on private commercial farms in the eastern Free State. The risk of veld fire and drought are high in the study area, and this has serious negative impacts on agriculture and grazing, which are the dominant activities in the Free State province. Grazing is the dominant economic activity in the sampled wetlands. Well-managed wetlands can effectively reduce the risk of veld fires, floods and drought, as observed in the field and supported by the literature review. This is the case with wetlands in protected areas and on private commercial farms in the study area. On the contrary, degraded wetlands lack the capacity to mitigate risks, as observed in communal wetlands. Education and awareness on the role of wetlands in reducing recurrent disaster risks in the area is crucial, especially among the communal wetlands users. The current climate variability adds to the need for education on proper wetland management, awareness and the development of holistic wetland management plans that should constantly be revised and carefully implemented to accommodate the changing external environment.

Proper training on the use and management of wetlands is also vital. The University of the Free State (UFS) and Central University of Technology (CUT), the leading tertiary institutions in the area, could design courses on wetlands management, while the Working for Wetlands Programme could offer skills enhancement courses to the local communities. The Mondi Wetland Programme (MWP) and the Endangered Wildlife Trust (EWT), which are prominent non-governmental organisations (NGOs) with an important role to play in wetlands management in South Africa, are not prominent in the study areas. They could also assist in capacity building in the area regarding wetlands issues.

It is important to rehabilitate the degraded communal wetlands as well as monitor the ecological status of wetlands on protected and private farms. This can be performed by the Working for Wetlands Programme and supported by the Working for Water Programme, which has the assigned responsibility from government of the clearing of invasive species that may include those in wetlands. These programmes should be more capacitated with both financial and human resources so that they can function effectively.

Wetlands could be a cost-effective, community-driven, bottom-top approach in mitigating the recurrent risks of drought, veld fires and floods in the eastern Free State if wetlands are properly managed. This ecosystem-based approach to reduce disaster risk and adapt to climate change has received and continues to receive much international attention in recent years.

Acknowledgements

Competing interests

The authors declare that they have no financial or personal relationships that may have inappropriately influenced them in writing this article.

Authors' contributions

J.A.B. was the principal researcher, N.C. was the supervisor and A.J. was the co-supervisor.

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Received: 14 Nov. 2016 Accepted: 06 Nov. 2017 Published: 27 Mar. 2018

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Disaster management models need adjusting: A case study in South Africa explains why

By Silvia Danielak

Local government and humanitarian actors are faced with tough choices of prioritising, managing and balancing resources, locations and constituencies.

Following heavy rains in November 2016, flash floods washed through the Setswetla informal settlement adjacent to Alexandra in Johannesburg. The floods  destroyed several dozen houses  and a child was killed.

Local government and civil society first responders were on the scene quickly to assess the damage and affirm their support to the residents. A textbook response would have involved steps like assessing damage, providing first aid and shelter, and developing a strategy to prevent a future, similar disaster.

In this case, however, things worked a little differently. Urban policy makers and humanitarian actors did indeed provide aid to those who lost their houses. But they also planned for an oversupply of material – all in an effort to prevent tensions from escalating. This response pointed to the fact that relief actors in situations such as those in Alexandra have to engage with underlying vulnerabilities and divisions in the communities they serve. Textbook models don’t account for this.

Alexandra  is one of the oldest black urban settlements in South Africa, going back to the early 20th century. It is close to the affluent business district of Sandton and along the Jukskei River. A relic of the country’s apartheid regime, the settlement saw rapid growth during the 1990s. Today it has an intimate mix of formal and informal dwellings. It remains one of South Africa’s poorest and underserviced settlements. It suffers from chronic violence, poor infrastructure and a range of environmental hazards.

The risk of the Jukskei River’s flooding, especially around the Setswetla informal settlement, is well known. With rapid urbanisation and growing pressure on land, more immigrants and rural South Africans have come to settle on the unsolidified landfill on the banks of the river. At the same time, continuous illegal dumping of construction waste in the river’s catchment area has increased the risk of flooding.

The greater Alexandra settlement has been plagued by violence too. Its inhabitants were exposed to state violence for decades under apartheid. In the democratic era since 1994, Alexandra has been the site of xenophobic violence with rising levels of anti-immigrant sentiment, ethnic division, and a  sense of inter-group competition .

Violent crime, intercommunity tensions, political violence and distrust between the state and citizens constitute a complex landscape for urban policy makers.

Alexandra is a place where there’s a stark interplay between violent conflict and disaster risk. But little attention is given to policies that could mitigate such compounding risk. As conflict and vulnerability to disasters increasingly intersect in urban settings, city officials and local disaster managers need to know how to address these issues.

I conducted research  that involved interviews with experts to shed light on how the conflict–disaster interface manifests itself in Alexandra. Disasters, such as the floods, and their recovery reveal the urban politics and conflicts in the affected communities as well as in wider urban governance.

Paying attention to the urban disaster managers’ understanding of place-based risk sheds light on the continuously compounding vulnerability and lack of sustainable disaster risk reduction in communities at risk.

Paradoxes of disaster recovery

Disasters in urban contexts take place in the context of a complex set of actors and diverging institutional mandates. Spatial inequality, histories of conflict and everyday politics pose challenges to disaster risk reduction. This is true even when a solid legal and policy framework for disaster management is in place.

My research shows that Johannesburg’s local government and humanitarian actors are faced with tough choices of prioritising, managing and balancing resources, locations and constituencies. In many situations, they go to great lengths to prevent inter-communal conflict in the event of disaster.

For example, they devised creative practices in their relief operations. Instead of supporting just victims of the disaster, charity organisations and city agencies would provide relief to other beneficiaries too. Instead of distributing 100 blankets, they would hand out 200 so that neighbours not directly affected by the flood received something too in an effort to avoid tensions.

Another example was that non-governmental organisations and local government would provide construction material for residents to rebuild their houses. This was done in the full knowledge that the location of the houses made the residents vulnerable to flooding. Nevertheless, this kind of support was an efficient way to provide shelter, stability, and a sense of dignity.

Challenging traditional approaches

The choices urban actors make are often faulty when viewed through the lens of traditional standards for this kind of work. Their decisions challenge many of the assumptions made by traditional humanitarian and disaster risk reduction models.

They also highlight the inevitable trade-offs and politics involved in dealing with marginalised communities. One of those trade-offs is the focus on the short term, at the expense of sustainable urban risk reduction.

In addition, based on their own risk assessment, residents opt to live in Setswetla because it is close to economic opportunities. Also, they lack better options.

Current conversations around climate-related hazards and other forms of so-called “natural” disasters often fail to link such risks to the communal, political and social conflictual dynamics. Natural hazards are, however, intimately linked with rapid urbanisation, informality, the legacy of apartheid, and chronic violence.

It is therefore time to present a more comprehensive picture of the risk landscape in urban settlements. It’s time to look at the adaptive strategies and choices urban managers and inhabitants make in the presence of compounding urban risk. Their choice to engage with some risks, but not with others, determines today’s urban planning and tomorrow’s urban risk landscape.

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Attachments

Editors' recommendations.

• SADC and Africa Risk Capacity sign three-year MoU on disaster risk management and financing
• From “disaster” to “risk” management: Ensuring a multi-hazard, multi-stakeholder, and integrated approach for man-made/technological hazards
• Risk management: weather services and insurance to counter natural disasters in Africa
• How to integrate Indigenous Peoples’ culture and traditions into disaster risk management
• Laurent Klein: “Disaster risks preparedness and management are played out at the local government level”

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Case Study – Storm and flooding in Western Cape

Between 6-8 June, much of South Africa’s Western Cape province, including Cape Town, was hit by a powerful storm which resulted in casualties and severe disruptions. The South African Weather Service reported it as the worst winter storm in 30 years as mudslides, flash floods and gale force winds left Cape Town partially paralyzed.

Anticipated by local authorities about a week before, a storm hit much of the province of Western Cape with full force on Tuesday, 6 June and did not completely pass until Thursday afternoon 8 June. The province’s most populous city Cape Town was particularly affected as winds reached around 100 kilometers per hour and heavy rain and huge waves battered the coastal city. The storm also coincided with a period of high tides which added to the massive floods.

Simultaneously, huge wildfires triggered by lightning ravaged around Cape Town, and the hard winds caused the fatal fires to spread very fast. The fires resulted in casualties and the displacement of several thousand people. Across Cape Town roads were blocked, schools and universities shut, public transport disrupted and many areas were left without electricity.

Our in-app advice for what to do during a flood:

• Move immediately to higher ground if there is a sign of flash flooding. Do not wait for instructions to move.
• Be aware of stream, drainage channels, canyons and other areas prone to flash flooding.
• Do not walk through moving water. Use a stick to check the firmness of the ground in front of you.
• Do not drive into flooded areas.

“The mother of all storms”, as it was named by local media, passed on Thursday 8 June   leaving Cape Town and other parts of Western Cape in partly disastrous conditions as the poor state of housing of many residents left thousands homeless.

SAFEY published several alerts of the storm. Users were forewarned on Monday 5 June of the anticipated adverse weather condition. Further on alerts were published on Tuesday 6 June   and Wednesday 7 June   warning travelers of disruptions due to mudslides, flash floods, gale force winds, as well as the wildfires around Western Cape. On Thursday 8 June, an update was sent to users informing of the closure of schools, traffic disruptions and large electricity cuts caused by the storm. A warning was also included regarding authorities’ recommendation of avoiding beaches and staying indoors until the storm had passed.

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