case study of knife crime

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Open Access

Peer-reviewed

Research Article

Victims, offenders and victim-offender overlaps of knife crime: A social network analysis approach using police records

Roles Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Methodology, Writing – original draft

Affiliation Institute of Criminology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom

Roles Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Methodology, Visualization

Roles Conceptualization, Supervision, Writing – review & editing

* E-mail: [email protected] , [email protected]

Affiliations Institute of Criminology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom, Institute of Criminology, Faculty of Law, Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel

• Laura Bailey, 
• Vincent Harinam, 
• Barak Ariel

• Published: December 11, 2020
• https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242621
• Reader Comments

Knife crime is a source of concern for the police in England and Wales, however little published research exists on this crime type. Who are the offenders who use knives to commit crime, when and why? Who are their victims, and is there a victim-offender overlap? What is the social network formation for people who are exposed to knife crime? Using a multidimensional approach, our aim is to answer these questions about one of England and Wales’ largest jurisdictions: Thames Valley. We first provide a state-of-the-art narrative review of the knife crime literature, followed by an analysis of population-level data on central tendency and dispersion of knife crimes reported to the police (2015–2019), on offences, offenders, victims, victim-offender overlaps and gang-related assaults. Social network analysis was used to explore the formations of offender-victim networks. Our findings show that knife crime represents a small proportion of crime (1.86%) and is associated largely with violence offenses. 16–34 year-old white males are at greatest risk of being the victims, offenders or victim-offenders of knife crime, with similar relative risks between these three categories. Both knife offenders and victims are likely to have a criminal record. Knife crimes are usually not gang-related (less than 20%), and experienced mostly between strangers, with the altercation often a non-retaliatory ‘one-off event’. Even gang-related knife crimes do not follow ‘tit-for-tat’ relationships—except when the individuals involved have extensive offending histories and then are likely to retaliate instantaneously. We conclude that while rare, an incident of knife crime remains predicable, as a substantial ratio of offenders and victims of future knife crime can be found in police records. Prevention strategies should not be focused on gang-related criminals, but on either prolific violent offenders or repeat victims who are known to the police—and therefore more susceptible to knife crime exposure.

Citation: Bailey L, Harinam V, Ariel B (2020) Victims, offenders and victim-offender overlaps of knife crime: A social network analysis approach using police records. PLoS ONE 15(12): e0242621. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242621

Editor: Jonathan Jackson, London School of Economics, UNITED KINGDOM

Received: March 12, 2020; Accepted: November 3, 2020; Published: December 11, 2020

Copyright: © 2020 Bailey et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Data Availability: Data cannot be shared publicly because of data sharing restrictions imposed by the data owner - Thames Valley Police. The point of contact for the data is Thames Valley Police Data Protection Unit at https://www.thamesvalley.police.uk/rqo/request/ri .

Funding: The author(s) received no specific funding for this work.

Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

1. Introduction

Reports of deaths arising from knife crimes have dominated United Kingdom (UK) headlines for the past half-decade, with U.S. President Donald Trump comparing the UK to a ‘military war zone’ [ 1 ]. British politicians have declared a ‘national emergency’, promising to ‘come down hard’ on the ‘scourge’ of knife crimes [ 2 , 3 ]. Yet, the literature on the topic is, interestingly, scant [ 4 ].

As Eades et al. [ 5 ] contended, in order to curb knife crime we must first understand what it is, who is involved and why certain individuals are attracted to it. Furthermore, while knife armament is seen as a relatively recent crime trend (it is not), the causes cited by those involved bear resemblance to the criminological literature on the victim-offender overlap (V-OO), where victims and offenders, based on shared characteristics and social space, are ‘one-in-the-same’ [ 6 , 7 ]. This suggests that V-OO may be a viable theoretical composition through which we can contextualise, forecast, and potentially prevent knife crime.

While V-OO provides an important assessment of individuals and their risk factors, our understanding of knife crimes can be aided by a more holistic view: explicating all the actors involved in knife crime, and only then reviewing their social ties. In this sense, social network analysis (SNA) provides an opportunity to look at the interdependencies between individuals involved in knife crime [ 8 ]. As noted by Lauritsen and Laub [ 9 ], it is not only an individual’s victimisation that needs to be considered, but also the victimisation within their social network, which can potentially be used to determine risk of both future victimisation and offending. For this, however, we must assume there is an organisational or structural component—i.e. gangs or organised crime—that causes knife-enabled violence to proliferate and spread through networks: violence begets violence, and proximity to violence places an individual at greater risk of victimisation [ 10 ]. This, however, has not been addressed in the violence literature.

By combining V-OO and SNA, this study provides insight into the nature of knife crime and how it spreads, if at all, among individuals and their criminal associations. In particular, SNA allows for the examination of the network structure of knife crimes in Thames Valley. This offers key strategic insight which may inform future law enforcement interventions. Importantly, this study also examines the role of retaliation and inter-gang violence in knife crime. We do this by examining population-level data of all non-domestic knife crimes recorded by the Thames Valley Police (TVP) between 2015 and early 2019.

2. Literature review

2.1 difficulties in quantifying knife crime in the uk.

Based on police records, knife crime occurred in less than 3.3% of all violent and weapon crime in 2019, which makes it a rare event [ 11 ]. Regardless of its statistical rarity, knife crimes are serious events where those involved may be seriously harmed. As such, further research into its occurrence and composition may yield insight into reducing harm. Longitudinally, the Office of National Statistics report that knife crime in the UK has risen by 7% between 2018 and 2019 [ 12 ]. However, the rate of growth is slowing when data are analysed for a more extensive period of time [ 13 ]. As it is often the case with low incidence events, longitudinal analyses can produce dramatic year-on-year fluctuations, though, in relative terms, the variations represent only small changes in incidence counts [ 14 , 15 ]. This may drive the dramatization in the media over the recent reported ‘spike’ in knife crime [ 16 – 19 ].

Another issue is whether police records are representative of ‘true population means’. First, modifications in crime recording practices could be driving these supposed increases in knife crime [ 12 , 20 ]. There are variations between police forces, between police units and over time [ 21 ], which makes both the validity as well as the reliability of ‘official statistics’ suspect at times [ 22 , 23 ]. Second, as observed by Ariel and Bland [ 24 ], police proactivity can be the main driver for reported increases in knife crime, especially when ‘knife crime’ includes possession offences, which are directly affected by targeted police activity such as stop and search [ 25 ]. Indeed, the combination of surge funding, associated stop and searches increases, and the explicit focus on weapons will affect the validity of police-recorded data. Moreover, this distinction between possession offences and violent crimes precipitated with a knife should be separated when we analyse data trends—both longitudinally and cross-sectionally.

2.1.1 Who is more likely to commit a weapon offence?

Just like the definition of what constitutes a knife crime, the antecedents for carrying or using a sharp blade are diverse. However, the literature on the perpetrators of knife crime is scant, with much of the knowledge arising from general studies of violence in which the data on weapon offences are often auxiliary to the main research questions. Still, the available evidence remains informative, and unravels several themes that cut across jurisdictions, contexts and time.

Research shows that young males are substantially more likely to be involved in knife crime [ 26 p7; 7]. The typical age range of those involved is between 13 and 24 years [ 27 ], which mimics the age-crime curve in terms of violence more broadly. If the study’s estimates are valid, then this translates to nearly 18,000 boys in this age group who carry a weapon [ 21 ]. The Serious Violence Strategy [ 21 ] further revealed that primarily underprivileged children, or those with four or more siblings, are more likely to be involved in serious violence, which illustrates the importance of studying familial links in violence.

Knife crime is more likely to take place in and around schools [ 28 ]. A recent ‘Freedom of Information request’ by the BBC News has indicated that out of 27 police forces in England and Wales that provided data, weapon possession (primarily sharp objects) at schools had doubled in four years. However, in absolute figures the rise consists of an increase from fewer than 500 per year to over 950 weapon possession offences in schools. Finally, one report suggests that carrying a weapon in school is associated with underachievement amongst 10 to18-year olds and more profoundly with school exclusions (but not due to weapon possessions) and a higher proportion had been persistently absent from school [ 29 ].

2.2 The victim-offender overlap and its pertinence to knife criminality

The victim-offender overlap (V-OO) is well established within criminological research [ 30 , 31 ]. The V-OO was first presented by Von Hentig [ 32 ] and later put forward by Wolfgang [ 33 ] and Gottfredson [ 8 ]. The authors identified a crossover between victims and offenders, determining three categories of criminally involved individuals: ‘pure victims’, ‘pure offenders’, and those who are ‘one-and-the-same’ (or victim-offenders). These ‘victim-offenders’ often share social characteristics, risk factors and etiological linkages which are different from pure victims and offenders [ 34 ].

Several theories have been proposed to explain the V-OO. These can be grouped into two schools of thought: the dynamic causal perspective and the population heterogeneity perspective [see review in 35 ]. First, the dynamic causal perspective purports that when the likelihood of being victimised increases, there is an immediate elevated risk of committing a violent offence [ 36 ]. In a longitudinal study of Swiss youth, Averdijk et al. [ 37 ] found that following victimisation, individuals are less likely to feel shame or remorse when committing a future offence—which tends to justify subsequent crime. On the other hand, the population heterogeneity perspective argues that victimisation and offending do not cause one another but are instead caused by stable personality characteristics or environmental factors that precipitate both [ 35 ]. The general theory of crime is an example of this view, stipulating that low self-control is the cause of criminality [ 38 ]. Whether this arises from an offender’s prior criminal history [ 39 ] or the history of their peers, the risk of victimisation is more pronounced [ 40 , 41 ]. For example, in a study of victims with low self-control who were subject to a serious assault, Singer [ 42 ] identified that these individuals had the highest probability of having a friend arrested, belonging to a gang, using a weapon and committing a serious assault. Thus, a third factor causes both the likelihood of offending as well as being a victim—but there is no necessarily reciprocal relationship between the two; the end result, however, is the same: a V-OO.

Gangs have received specific attention in the V-OO research. In 2009, Melde et al. [ 43 ] conducted a study of youths aged between 10 and 16 years, identifying that those in gangs report greater levels of actual and perceived risk of victimisation compared to non-gang-members. In a longitudinal study of Chicago youth, Zimmerman et al. [ 44 ] looked at the relationship between victims and offenders, finding that the odds of offending are 76% greater if victimised, and 70% greater if victimised by a gang member. Papachristos et al. [ 10 ] contend that gang membership is associated with a tripled risk of violent victimisation. Similarly, Zavala [ 45 ] found that gang membership increases the risk of victimisation by 447%, and offending risk by 249%. Given this body of evidence, the underlying assumption ought to be that V-OO is ubiquitous, and that knife crime is likely to follow suit, although to the best of our knowledge no published research has looked at this phenomenon specifically in the context of knife crime.

2.3 Social network analysis and violent crime

Criminal conduct is a social behaviour, with most offenders being embedded within networks of delinquent and criminal friends [ 46 ]. The examination of these social networks can also provide insight into crime patterns and structures [ 47 , 48 ]. In recognising the connectivity between individuals, SNA allows for the examination of the connective properties that link these individuals and influence their behaviour [ 49 ].

Haynie [ 50 ] illustrated that the more delinquent peers central to one’s network, the more delinquency will be measured at the level of the individual. The density of a network is also key, whereby a greater number of actors are said to increase the victimisation and offending risk [ 38 ]. In a study looking at juvenile co-offending networks, McGloin and Piquero [ 51 ] found that members of a ‘dense’ network are often specialised in their criminality when offending with others, while sparse networks demonstrated less criminal specialisation. Therefore, those who regularly offend together, such as gang members, will often commit similar offences due to the lack of skills and diversity afforded by group members.

Subsequently, the proliferation of violence is a key focus within SNA, often concluding that violence is infectious and passes through social networks [ 52 – 54 ]. By using dyadic analysis, Papachristos [ 55 ] identified that murders between rival gangs are best understood as social contagion, carried out within organised networks, rather than committed at random [ 56 ]. This is supported by the finding that 70% of victimisations occur within recognisable social networks; even indirect exposure to victimisation increases the likelihood of victimisation [ 10 ].

In relation to knife crime, similar findings were described as a ‘replicative externality’, whereby knife criminality proliferates though a person’s social network [ 57 ]. This highlights the importance of understanding an individual’s network and, in particular, their associations and connections, given the increased likelihood of offending being committed within that network.

Admittedly, most SNA studies on violent networks have been conducted in the US, with an underrepresented crime portfolio from UK gangs [ 58 ]. Therefore, whilst being able to draw conclusions on the potential validity of SNA to examine the proliferation of knife crime within the UK, these results might be limited in their generalisability as to whether knife crime mimics the contagion effect of U.S. gun and gang violence.

3. The present study

Given the literature review, this research aims to address two research questions:

• Who offends and who is victimised by knife crime, and is there evidence of V-OO?
• What is the network structure of knife crimes in Thames Valley, based on these police records?

4. Data and methods

To address the research questions, our study uses a population-level dataset, covering the full cohort of knife crimes and linked individuals across the geographical area serviced by the Thames Valley Police (TVP) of England and Wales. TVP is the largest non-metropolitan police force in England and Wales, with a jurisdiction over 2,200 m 2 , three primary counties (Buckinghamshire, Berkshire and Oxfordshire), a diverse population of more than 2.34M residents and approximately 6M visitors who come to the Thames Valley each year. The Thames Valley is located in the southeast region of England, west of London. The police force area is divided into 12 Local Policing Areas, with more than 4,120 frontline officers, 3,400 police staff and more than 500 volunteers.

The dataset used originates from police-recorded information reported and retained in local police records referred to as the Records Management System that is used by the TVP (RMS Niche), which manages information in relation to people, locations, organisations and incidents. The dataset contains all non-domestic knife crime occurrences across the TVP Force Area (covering the entirety of Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire and Berkshire) reported to or by the police within a four-year period (01/04/2015 to 31/03/2019). This four-year dataset was selected due to changes in knife crime recording practices prior to this period. Importantly, we define ‘knife crime’ as any event where a knife, sharp instrument or other bladed implement was present or used to assault another person.

For the period of interest, a total of 515,939 unique non-domestic crimes were reported (as an illustration, in 2019 199,772 crimes were recorded, of which 58,752 violent crimes and 1,627 robberies were registered. However, only 10,146 non-domestic knife crime offences were identified based on RMS Niche filters, which recorded the presence or use of a knife during the commission of an offence. Of these 10,146 knife crime offences, 10,099 unique cases can be identified (i.e. 47 duplicate entries were removed). This constitutes 2.2% of all offenses in Thames Valley over the period of study. These offences occurred against 6,896 unique victims and 7,231 unique offenders who were identified. For the purposes of this study, “offender” is defined as an individual who initiates a knife crime while “victim” is defined as an individual who is on the receiving of the knife crime within that specific knife crime incident. These definitions are reflective of how victims and offenders were categorized within the dataset by Thames Valley crime analysts and database managers. With respect to the V-OO, it is important to clarify that an individual can be a victim in one knife crime event and an offender in another separate event.

In terms of data points, we gained access to anonymised information on all the individuals involved, including whether they are affiliated with gangs or organized crime groups (OCGs); their gender, ethnicity, date of birth, prior offences and victimisations; and all the quantifiable information on system. Importantly, 610 unique individuals were identified as both a knife crime victim and offender (V-OO), representing 8.8% of the victim population and 8.4% of the offender population.

4.2 Analysis plan

4.2.1 descriptive statistics..

Measures of central tendency and dispersion were used to summarize the 10,099 knife crimes. These basic descriptors are useful for understanding both the socio-demographic and spatial composition of knife crime, as well as the presence of a V-OO.

4.2.2 Social network analysis.

We employed descriptive network analysis to illustrate how the social networks of knife crime offenders are constructed in Thames Valley. All network statistics and modelling were conducted in R using the igraph [ 59 ] and statnet [ 60 ] packages, while visualizations were conducted in Gephi. Social network analysis offers unique insight into the composition of a criminal network. Moreover, by examining the global structure of knife crimes, we can better diagnose the UK’s perceived knife crime epidemic and offer policy recommendations on how to deal with it. As such, social network analysis represents a novel means by which UK knife crimes can be examined.

From the 10,099 identified knife crime offences, two networks were created: 1) a one-mode ‘actor-to-actor’ network featuring offenders and victims and 2) a one-mode ‘actor-to-actor’ network featuring offending OCGs and victimised OCGs. Given the strict requirement of both an identifiable offender and victim, only knife crime offences with both a known offender and victim were used to construct these networks. Offenders and victims were identified based on their Unique Nominal ID and criminal association. As some offenders and victims could not be linked to a victim or offender, respectively, due to data limitations they were removed from analysis. As such, the offender-victim network consisted of 7,044 pairs, with 5,020 unique offenders and 4,550 unique victims. The OCG-to-OCG network consisted of 208 pairs, with 97 unique offending OCGs and 86 unique victimised OCGs. A link between the nodes was defined as co-offending or involving knife crime [ 61 ].

More formally, our analyses use directed ties, meaning that the tie from i to j is not necessarily reciprocated ( i may attack j with a knife, while j may not do the same to i ). An interaction between an offender and victim is regarded as a tie, y ij , where y ij = 1 if a violent interaction has occurred between offender i and victim j and y ij = 0 if not. As our data are weighted, y ij may be greater than 1 if offender i and victim j have had multiple interactions.

We applied four network measures to assess the structure of these networks: network density, average in/out-degree centrality, reciprocity and modularity. Density measures the overall interconnectedness of a network (e.g. the number of possible interactions between offender i and victim j ). To this extent, network density measures the total number i to j ties divided by the number of possible ties in the network. Represented by a coefficient ranging from 0 to 1, a high density (close to 1) indicates that offenders tend to engage in knife crimes frequently and with different victims. Conversely, a low density (close to 0) indicates that offenders tend to assault a single victim on an infrequent basis.

Average in/out-degree centrality measures the average number of unique ties an actor has within their respective network. For our purposes, it indicates the average number of unique victims an offender has (outdegree centrality) and the average number of unique offenders a victim has (indegree centrality). Reciprocity delineates the proportion of mutual connections in a directed graph [ 62 ]. It is commonly defined as the probability that the opposite counterpart of a directed edge is also included in the graph. That is, the proportion of i to j ties divided by the total number of ties in the network. Reciprocity indicates the extent to which offenders are victimised by their previous victims.

Finally, modularity indicates the extent to which a network decomposes into modular communities [ 63 ]. In the network sciences, a community is comprised of nodes that are more densely connected to each other than to other nodes in the network. For our purposes, modularity reflects the number of knife crime communities within the network. To this extent, the number and connectivity of isolated knife crime communities serves as an indicator of the level of ‘information flow’, and by extension, fragmentation, within the network. Modularity is a chance-corrected statistic ranging from -0.5 to 1. It is defined as the fraction of ties that fall within the given groups minus the expected fraction if ties were distributed at random. A high modularity score (Q) suggests that the network is compartmentalized into distinct subgroups [for further technical details see 64 ].

4.3 Data limitations

Perhaps the foremost limitation of any police data system is the poor validity of the information recorded therein [ 65 ]. Fluctuations in criminality due to police proactivity and the quality of reporting are an open concern [ 24 ]. Therefore, this study only presents data on what TVP know, which likely masks the true population figures: official statistics are unlikely to represent the true scale of knife criminality across Thames Valley.

In terms of data quality, we lack any information on how knives are used. Without knowing this, it is difficult to measure the true harm arising from knife crimes, without manually reviewing all 10,099 knife crime offences—an exercise that was beyond the scope of this inquiry.

Finally, while knife crimes may be underreported, known knife crime offenders may be over-reported. As law enforcement often suspect those already known to them of committing a crime [ 54 ], the number of times that an offender is linked to multiple knife crimes may be inflated.

5.1 Descriptive statistics for knife crime trends, offenders, and victims

5.1.1 knife crimes by year and crime sub-classification..

During the four years under review, the proportion of all non-domestic crime represented by knife crime increased by an average of 1.86%, while the rate of all non-domestic crime increased by an average of 6.52% each year. However, despite the increasing volume of knife crime each year (2015/2016: 1,816; 2016/2017: 2,244; 2017/2018: 2,867; 2018/2019: 3,172), the rate of growth has been inconsistent, with a 27.8% increase from 2016–2017 to 2017–2018 and 10.6% increase in 2018–2019 from the previous year. Importantly, when the data are disaggregated based on offence sub-classifications, we find that violence and weapons possession offences drive year-to-year knife crime increases (see Fig 1 ).

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https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242621.g001

Of the 10,099 knife crime offences, 1,636 offences are linked to police-recognised organized crime groups (OCGs), which represents 16.2% of all knife crimes within the four-year period. To this extent, 236 offences involved both an OCG-affiliated offender and victim, while 1,380 and 492 offences involved only an OCG-affiliated offender and victim, respectively. Notably, of these 1,636 OCG-related knife crimes, 294 were linked to drug activity distributed between county drug lines and by local drug dealers.

5.1.2 Socio-demographic characteristics of knife crimes.

Within the 10,099 knife crime offences, there are 6,896 unique victims and 7,231 unique offenders. The key demographics are presented in Table 1 . In general, we can see that White (Northern European) males between the ages of 16 and 34 constitute the majority of knife crime victims within Thames Valley. This is also the case for offenders, who are 87.6% male, 59.6% White (Northern European), and 59.3% aged 16 to 34.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242621.t001

Of the 6,896 unique victims and 7,231 unique offenders, 548 (7.8%) and 1,380 (19%) had a link to a recognized OCG, respectively. Furthermore, 38% (130) of OCG-affiliated victims were members of a drug dealing gang, with 87 and 52 of these victims linked to ‘county lines’ (County Line is a term used to describe gangs and organised criminal networks involved in exporting illegal drugs into one or more importing areas within the UK, using dedicated mobile phone lines or other form of “deal line”) and local drug dealers, respectively. Similarly, 34% (469) of OCG-affiliated offenders were linked to a drug gang while 28% (386) were affiliated with a weapons/firearms gang. Notably, 291 victims experienced more than one knife victimisation, accounting for 633 total knife crime offences. Furthermore, the majority of these victims were male (81.6%), White (Northern European) (52.5%), and aged 16 to 34 (55.4%).

5.1.3 Habitual knife crime offenders and repeat victims of knife crime.

Those identified as repeat victims and offenders both experienced, on average, two knife crime incidents. Of the 7,231 unique offenders, 1,564 (21.6%) committed more than one knife crime offence, accounting for 41.4% of all knife crimes within the four years of study. However, this distribution reaches a maximum of five incidents for victims and 13 for offenders. Importantly, incidents experienced by repeat victims (4.2%) represented a small percentage of all knife crimes (6.27%), while 21.6% of repeat offenders committed 41.4% of knife criminality.

Similar to repeat knife crime victims, repeat offenders were primarily male (92.5%), between the ages of 16 and 24 (42.4%), and predominantly White (Northern European) (57.3%), with Blacks and Asians accounting for 25.2% and 11.5%, respectively. To place these statistics in perspective, 8% Oxfordshire’s population are Black, Asian or other ethnic minorities ( http://www.southoxon.gov.uk ).

5.1.4 V-OO.

The data present evidence of a V-OO: 610 individuals can be identified as both a victim and an offender. This cohort accounted for 7.3% (734) of all knife crimes, with 410 offences committed by 145 repeat victim-offenders. Only nine knife crime incidents involved a victim and offender who were both repeat victim-offenders. In terms of gender distribution, 89% were male, comparable to all knife crime offenders within the dataset. White (North European) overrepresented, constituting 65.5% of victim-offenders, followed by Black (18.8%) and Asian (14.24%) victim-offenders. Moreover, the average age for male victim-offenders is 27 years and 29 for females (63.1% (385) are between the ages of 16 and 34).

In terms of repeat involvement in knife crime, victim-offenders are split into two groups: victimised and offending. Eleven per cent of victim-offenders experienced 22.9% of victim knife crime (1.9% of total knife crime), while 23.7% of victim-offenders committed 55.8% of victim-offender associated knife crime (4% of total knife crime). Of the 610 victim-offenders, 30.5% (186) were affiliated with an OCG. Of the 10,099 unique knife crimes, only 236 offences involved victim-offenders with a known affiliation to OCGs and gangs (2.34%). Groups of offenders that deal drugs represent more than 33% of all OCGs and gangs. Within this group of victims-offenders, 47% are linked to country lines, 32.9% linked to local drug dealers, and the rest (20%) to both. Of the 610 unique victim-offenders, they experienced 679 knife-crime offences (6.7% of all knife crime). 156 offences were experienced by 72 repeat victim-offenders. Of the 610 unique victim-offenders, they committed 734 knife-crime offences (7.2% of all knife crime). 410 offences were committed by 145 repeat victim-offenders. Although this represents 4% of all knife crime, this equates to 55.8% of all knife-crime being committed by 23.7% of all victim-offenders.

5.2 The network structure of Thames Valley knife crimes

5.2.1 offender-victim networks..

The offender-victim knife crime network is comprised of 9,261 unique actors spread across 7,044 knife crime incidents, with 5,020 and 4,550 unique offenders and victims, respectively. Moreover, only 22% (1,107) of offenders and 10% (442) of victims were affiliated with an OCG. As such, the network is comprised primarily of non-OCG-affiliated actors. As expected, there are no isolates within the network, as an actor cannot be both an offender and victim within the same dyadic pairing.

As shown in Table 2 , the average indegree and outdegree centrality are proxies for the average number of offenders who have assaulted a victim and the average number of victims harmed by an offender. As such, knife crime victims have been accosted by 1.52 offenders, on average, whereas knife crime offenders have harmed an average of 1.37 victims. Importantly, we observed small but statistically significant differences in the outdegree and indegree centrality among OCG-affiliated and non-OCG-affiliated offenders and victims.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242621.t002

Independent samples t-tests revealed that OCG-affiliated offenders and victims possessed a higher average number of victims (1.62) and offenders (1.76) relative to their non-OCG-affiliated counterparts [( t (1370) = 8.94, p = <0.0001), and ( t (575) = 4.2, p = <0.0001) respectively]. This reveals a key distinction between the frequency and intensity of knife crime offences: while non-OCG-affiliated offenders and victims may account for a larger proportion of knife crimes, OCG-affiliated offenders and victims are involved in a higher average number of knife crimes.

The distribution of outdegree and indegree centrality reveals that 78.1% and 72.9% of all offenders and victims had only one victim and offender, respectively (see Table 3 ). Furthermore, 66.6% and 60% of OCG-affiliated offenders and victims had a single victim and offender while 81.3% and 74.3% of non-OCG-affiliated offenders and victims had a single victim and offender. This suggests that the overwhelming majority of knife crimes are one-off events between two individuals.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242621.t003

Like many other criminal networks, the offender-victim knife crime network is markedly diffused, with a network density of 0 (note: the network density was rounded to 0). For the sake of comparison, the density of a dark web opioid distribution market studied by Duxbury and Haynie [ 66 ] was 0.002, while Jihadi networks examined by Krebs [ 67 ] and Morselli, Giguere, and Petit [ 68 ] ranged from 0.2 to 0.4. Furthermore, this network possessed a modularity of 0.997, with 2,923 identifiable communities. This suggests a high level of network fragmentation as nodes within the network exhibited clustering with respect to their given node grouping (see Fig 2 ).

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242621.g002

In general, the structure of the offender-victim knife crime network is dyadic, as components with two nodes accounted for a majority (65.3%) of all components and a plurality (41.2%) of all nodes within the network. Furthermore, triads accounted for the second largest component group, representing 17.5% and 16.6% of all components and nodes, respectively. Indeed, knife crimes in Thames Valley are dyadic: one-off crime events between two individuals. This, moreover, explains the marked fragmentation as this network is comprised of many two-node subgroups while lacking many large multi-node components ( Fig 2 ).

However, the fragmentation and dyadic composition of the offender-victim knife crime network may be a by-product of the relationship between the individuals involved. Our data show that 34.7% (2,444) and 33.1% (2,330) of knife crime incidents in this network involved strangers and acquaintances, respectively. While many law enforcement databases struggle from missing data, this particularly database was mainly complete with 97% of knife crime incidents possessing the relationship between the victim and offender. Nevertheless, it is important to acknowledge that as stranger violence is more likely to be reported, this finding may nevertheless be subject to a recording bias. Equally important are the criminal and victimisation histories of these offenders and victims (see Table 4 ). While a plurality (25.8%) of offenders had no prior criminal offending, a majority (52.9%) of these offenders had no prior victimisations. Similarly, 60.2% and 51.1% of victims had no prior offending or victimisations. However, knife crime offenders are more likely to have a criminal record, with 74.2% having committed at least one prior offence.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242621.t004

5.2.2 OCG-to-OCG network.

The OCG-to-OCG knife crime network is comprised of 141 unique OCGs, including 97 unique offending OCGs and 86 unique victimised OCGs (see Table 5 and Fig 3 for more details). These are spread across 209 knife crime incidents. 17.8% of all incidents involved an offender and victim from the same OCG, so we see that that in the majority of cases of when OCG members use knives as an assault weapon, they are directed at rival OCGs.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242621.g003

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242621.t005

As per the average indegree centrality ( Table 5 ), victimised OCGs are harmed by 1.85 OCGs, on average, whereas offending OCGs commit harm against 1.64 OCGs, on average. In short, it does not appear that inter-OCG knife crimes occur at a high frequency among a bevy of OCGs. This is corroborated by the distribution of outdegree and indegree centrality measures, where 62.9% of offending OCGs harmed only one OCG, while 60.5% of victimised OCGs were harmed by a single OCG. Only 22.7% and 22.1% of offending and victimised OCGs harmed or were harmed by two OCGs, respectively. In addition to a low reciprocity of 0.02, it appears that OCG-related knife crimes, like those committed by persons, are one-off events that rarely beget retaliation. To this point, only 2.9% (6) of all cases were tied to retaliation, and this network is not dyadic, as 73% (103) of all nodes are housed within a single component.

5.2.3 Retaliations within the offender-victim network.

Of the 7,044-recorded knife crime incidences in this network, 0.94% (66) were retaliations where actor j harmed actor i following actor i ’s initial attack on actor j . As such, we found 33 retaliatory incidents, representing 33 mutual dyads in the network. This small number of retaliations is ultimately reflected in the low reciprocity of 0.009. This finding supports the established trend regarding the one-off nature of Thames Valley knife crimes.

Based on this small sample, we were able to determine that retaliations occurred within 16.5 days (or 395.15 hours) after the initial knife crime. However, this number should be cautiously considered as 12 of the 33 retaliatory attacks were instantaneous, occurring immediately (within a minute of the initial assault) following the initial attack. Importantly, only 12% of offenders and victims were affiliated with an OCG. As such, knife crime retaliations are not primarily a gang-related phenomenon. Of the 33 recorded retaliations, only three involved both an OCG-affiliated offender and victim. However, offenders who engaged in the initial and retaliatory knife crime were more likely to have an extensive criminal history relative to the rest of the offenders within the network. That is, 38% and 29% of the initial and retaliatory offenders had committed nine or more prior offences, respectively.

6. Discussion

6.1 knife crime is male-dominated, with young adults between 16–34 and a criminal background—but not gang-related. the same can be said about victims of knife crime.

Our data provide information on the nature and structural composition of knife crimes in the TVP Force Area. If our results are generalizable, then UK knife crime networks typically involve strangers, both of whom have a criminal history or prior victimisation, but are not gang affiliated, as over 81% of offenders and 92.2% of victims were found to be unaffiliated with any organised crime groups. We contextualise these findings more broadly within two distinct layers: individuals and networks.

The characteristics of victims and offenders bear marked similarities. That is, the age range, gender and ethnicities of these two groups are more similar than they are different, with males between the ages of 16 and 34 constituting the majority of victims and offenders. In terms of ethnicity, we found little difference between victims and offenders, with White (Northern Europeans) representing 72% and 66% respectively. Asian and Black ethnicities, however, are over-represented in the data, compared to their overall population trends in the TVP area. In general, the demographic similarities between victims and offenders provide some support for the existence of a victim-offender overlap in knife crimes [ 9 ], although with some variation in frequency and scope.

While a plurality (25.8%) of offenders had no prior criminal offending, a majority (52.9%) of these offenders have no prior victimisations. Similarly, 60.2% and 51.1% of victims had no prior offending or victimisations. The preponderance of first-time victims points to the peculiar nature of knife crimes in Thames Valley as most victims are generally not involved in crime of any sort. However, the offender-victim network indicated that the majority of offenders were known to the police from prior offences (74.2%). Nearly half of those victimised were repeat victims (47.1%). If these police records represent true population means of knife crime offenders and victims, then knife crime is correlated with criminal behaviour more broadly. This deviates from common assaults and less severe forms of violence, which is more likely to be a result of contextual factors (e.g. alcohol) rather than a crime committed by a seasoned offender. Knife crime is different: those who carry knives, and those who use them to commit crimes (and get caught), are known offenders. Even the victims are usually known to the police, with 39.8% having a criminal record, and 38.9% having been injured in the past. These trends are not very different from those reported in earlier studies [ 5 , 31 , 33 ].

Finally, the literature points to gang involvement as one of the main correlates of violent crime. However, the TVP data suggest otherwise, with under 19% of offenders and 7.8% of victims marked by an association with a recognized gang or organized crime. These figures support Massey et al. [ 69 ] who found that only 21% of knife homicides in London were gang related. More broadly, these findings debunk much of what is portrayed in the media: drug gangs escalating the risk of knife crime by using violence to exploit and obtain territory [ 70 ]. Indeed, it appears that TVP knife crimes are not usually gang related, and in fact experienced mostly by young and non-criminals.

6.2 Social networks of knife crime are usually dyadic and non-reiterative

The construction of both an offender-victim and OCG-to-OCG network offers unique insight into the structural composition of Thames Valley knife crimes on both an individual and organizational level. The offender-victim network was constructed from 7,044 of the 10,099 knife crimes, representing 69.7% of all incidents, including 5,020 (69.4%) unique offenders and 4,550 (65.9%) unique victims. Despite their involvement in the majority of knife incidents, non-OCG affiliated offenders and victims have fewer unique victims and offenders than their OCG-affiliated counterparts. This small but statistically significant difference reveals a key distinction in terms of the frequency and intensity of knife crimes: while non-OCG-affiliated offenders and victims account for a greater proportion of police-recorded knife criminality, OCG-affiliated victims and offenders are more frequently involved in these offences.

Moreover, 78% of all offenders and 73% of all victims had only one victim and offender, but when broken down into OCG and non-OCG-affiliated offenders and victims, 67% and 60% of OCG-affiliated offenders and victims had a single victim and offender, while 81.3% and 74.3% of non-OCG-affiliated offenders and victims had a single victim and offender. This indicates that an overwhelming majority of knife crimes are one-off events between two individuals. This is also reflected in the distribution of component sizes. Indeed, the victim-offender network is predominantly dyadic, where 65.3% of all components, comprising 41.2% of all nodes, are dyads. There is a distinct absence of many large multi-node components.

These findings seemingly run contrary to much of the co-offending network literature in the United States, which often reports that violent crime across high-crime communities occurs within small, identifiable networks of individuals actively engaged in criminal and delinquent behaviour [ 10 , 53 , 71 ]. Papachristos et al. [ 72 ] found in a high-crime neighbourhood in Boston that 85% of all gunshot injuries occurred within a single network containing only 763 individuals, two-thirds of whom were either gang members or had been arrested in the months leading up to their victimisation. These differences may be explained by cultural distinctions between gangs across the Atlantic, but they can also be the product of structural differences in geographic locales [ 73 ]. Studies by Papachristos et al. [ 10 , 74 ] presented results from densely populated U.S. cities with well-established gang and gun violence. The knife crime study presents data arising from three UK diverse counties, which provide heterogeneity in landscape (rural and urban), culture and crime trends. As such, findings from studies of criminal networks in the U.S. [ 75 , 76 ] cannot be duplicated for criminal networks in the UK; additional research is required to expound these disparities.

However, an equally likely explanation for this discrepancy may lie in the nature of the co-offending network examined. In general, U.S.-based studies deal predominantly with broader co-offending networks that are larger and subject to greater network density. For example, studies by Papachristo et. al [ 10 , 55 ] and Papachristos and Wildeman [ 71 ] which examined gun violence networks in the U.S. included all arrest and co-arrests. Being more broadly defined, these networks are much larger, with more connections between victims and offenders relative to the network examined in this study. Furthermore, as this network is defined only by victims and offenders involved in knife crimes, it is unlikely to have a network density like in the aforementioned studies.

It is, however, arguable that the idiosyncrasies of the Thames Valley knife crime network are a consequence of the attributes of the individuals involved. To this extent, 34.7% and 33.1% of all knife crime incidents involved strangers and acquaintances, respectively. As the offenders and victims are strangers and acquaintances who have rarely or never associated with one another, it is unlikely that they will meet again following their altercation.

6.3 Tit-for-tat is uncommon

Finally, we find little evidence for retaliatory knife crime. We assumed that retaliatory assaults are common. Yet the SNA indicated otherwise: given the dyadic relationships in terms of knife crime that takes place primarily between unfamiliar strangers, the likelihood of a repeated transgression between the same parties is low: only 33 retaliatory incidents were identified. The overwhelming majority of knife crimes (99.61%) begin and end with the initial knife crime event. This finding can be explained by the criminal involvement of the offenders and the victims: the majority of them are not gang-affiliates, who are more likely to retaliate.

The literature is mixed on this issue of retaliation. Some find support for tit-for-tat [ 77 – 79 ], while others do not, finding no evidence of retaliation when the incident was perpetrated by a stranger or someone the victim barely knew [ 10 ]. Our findings support the latter perspective, given the rarity of this recording. The number of incidents is too low for valid forecasts, at least in the context of the Thames Valley. Nevertheless, offenders who participated in retaliatory knife incidents were more likely to have an extensive criminal history relative to the rest of the offenders within the network. That is, 38% and 29% of the initial and retaliatory offenders had committed nine or more prior offences, respectively. This, in part, suggests that retaliatory knife crimes are between actors with extensive criminal histories. This finding provides an important opportunity for proactive policing, whereby preventative tactics can be employed to deter high-risk retaliators from committing an offence following knife crime victimisation [ 80 ].

6.4 OCGs and gangs play a limited role in knife crime

The OCG-to-OCG network is comprised of 208 knife crime incidents, 82.2% of which involved different groups. Moreover, victimised OCGs were harmed by 1.85 OCGs while offending OCGs harmed 1.64 rivals. The majority of OCGS—62.9% and 60.5% of offending and victimised OCGS—harmed and were harmed by only one OCG, respectively. In addition to a low reciprocity of 0.02, it appears that OCG-related knife crimes, like those in the offender-victim network, remain one-off events that rarely beget retaliation. These findings contradict popular claims of OCGs driving UK knife crimes.

However, unlike the offender-victim network, the OCG-to-OCG network is not dyadic, with 73% of all nodes being housed within a single component. This is particularly telling as it indicates that OCG-related knife crimes are not densely reciprocated incidents between a small contingent of rival OCGs, but crime events that sparsely tie together an assortment of OCGs. Taken together, these results indicate that knife crimes perpetrated by TVP OCGs are not only rare, but also generally unreflective of the violent turf wars that characterise North American OCG and gang activities [ 77 , 81 ].

6.5 Policy implications: Pre-emptive prevention measures with known offenders

From a practical perspective, dramatically limiting the number of potential offenders and victims—or both—from the overall population of people who live or visit a jurisdiction creates a finite pool of individuals for law enforcement agencies to control. Indeed, the relative contribution of each offender to overall knife crime is not shaped in a ‘power few’ formation [ 82 ], with a relatively small number of individuals responsible for a disproportionate number of incidents [ 83 ]. Still, some clustering does take place. Our analyses suggest that about one-fifth of repeat offenders committed about 42% of all the knife crime [ 84 ]. Nevertheless, they are known to the police (by virtue of being repeatedly arrested), and there are still some violent offenders who engage more regularly in crime than others. These data distributions present targeting opportunities—for example through focused deterrence approaches [ 85 , 86 ].

The most immediate policy implication, however, concerns data and recording practices. As discussed by Massey et al. [ 69 ], we have also experienced data issues that hinder both forecasting as well as prevention of knife crime: the forced localisation of the data to the spatial boundaries of individual police forces; the ‘free text’ nature of many data points (for instance, the very recording of a knife); or the accuracy of data—all equally remain a source of concern in this line of research. Crime recording systems that do not allow for reasonable retrieval of historic data pose challenges. Equally, the feedback of data on the whereabouts of suspects, persons of interest and potential victims of knife crime (or violence more broadly) to field officers is sporadic and limited. Thus, more valid, reliable and available data can assist in understanding the phenomenon, as well as guide us toward effective preventative or suppressive initiatives.

As it relates to policy and law enforcement intervention, there is a need to separate gangs from knife crimes in order to tackle both problems more effectively. Whilst most policing approaches deal with the problem of gangs and knives as one-in-the-same, these findings suggest their independence from one another. Moreover, given the low density of the knife crime network, it is evident that knife crimes are one-on-one events. As the network is fragmented, it may be difficult for law enforcement to craft a targeting strategy which focuses on key actors within the network. However, this insight may prove useful as law enforcement should pivot away from interventions which target gangs to a generalized approach which discourages carrying knives in public. With that said, in order to identify those at greatest risk of high-harm knife crimes, police data recording systems must reduce duplicated entries and include options to record how a knife was used. With these improvements, a more valid assessment of knife crime harm could be conducted.

6.6 Future research implications

Overall, the characteristics of habitual knife crime offenders or repeat knife crime victims are not different from ‘one-off’ knife offenders and victims. We sense that our data are limited and therefore we are unable to trace discrete features of these subgroups. With additional information, classification of violent offenders is more likely. For example, we know that differences between offenders are often explained by situational, psychosocial or ecological factors—however these data points were beyond our reach. Future research should consider richer data and more fit actuarial models to forecast involvement of repeated knife crime. Such analysis may debunk one possible explanation for the habitualness we find in our data: a disproportionate attention on ‘likely suspects’ on the part of law enforcement [ 51 ]. While it may not be possible to use the current data to accurately forecast likely offenders, future research should consider how network-level data can be applied for the purposes of identifying knife crime risk. Such risk factors can be further developed to form the foundation of an actuarial forecasting tool for knife crimes. To this extent, this study has demonstrated the utility of social network analysis in determining the underlying structure of a knife crime network. Future research should consider utilizing social network analysis in order to replicate the findings of this study (e.g. network density, modularity, etc.).

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Knife crime: children are not the problem, they are part of the solution

Professor of Criminology, Loughborough University

Professor, Institute of Criminology and Public Safety, University of Trinidad and Tobago

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Within the first few hours of 2019, two people in London had been stabbed to death. This came just after the Metropolitan Police revealed 134 people had been killed in the capital in 2018, with just over half the victims of knife crime.

The spate of knife crimes in London has whipped the media and politicians into a frenzy. Knife crime is now described as an “epidemic” that’s spiralling out of control. Its impact on victims and communities is horrifying and the police and courts are seemingly powerless to address it.

The typical perpetrator, allegedly, is young and working class, part dangerous, part feckless. This new breed of violent child offender seemingly cannot control themselves, and can barely be controlled by others. The result is a society that feels impotent and is growing fearful of its children.

But in reality, the UK is witnessing the construction of a moral panic about knife crime: the problem is politically constructed, its causes falsely identified, and the “solution” ineffectively articulated.

Research into knife crime, and government strategies aimed at tackling it typically adopt an “epidemiological” approach that treats knife crime as an individual pathology or disease which requires medical treatment. Alternative approaches focused on public health centre on the causes of knife crime – such as exposure to psychological and social risk factors from family, peers, or at school.

Either way, knife crime is committed by a broken child in need of fixing. But both these approaches are counter-productive and harmful.

Toxic environments

To counteract the moral panic and identify appropriate solutions to children carrying and using knives, society urgently needs to bring the issue into its proper perspective. Knife crime is a complex social problem. It is a symptom of the toxic environments that adults create around children, who then become both perpetrators and victims. These toxic environments can leave children disaffected, fearful and vengeful. They are scared and provoked into carrying knives, joining gangs and committing violent acts.

It is no coincidence, therefore, that the vast majority of knife crime takes place in neighbourhoods suffering from huge social disadvantage and disinvestment.

Children pass through many different environments in their daily lives relating to their families, education, neighbourhood, employment and recreation. Environments become toxic, harmful and can cause crime when children’s relationships and experiences fail to meet their basic needs, in particular, their right to be protected, nurtured and enabled to achieve positive outcomes.

Work with children living in toxic environments often focuses exclusively on preventing negative behaviours and their effects, such as crime, substance use and school exclusion, protecting adults, and controlling children’s behaviours, choices and opportunities. Such efforts treat children as little adults with adult capacities, development and foresight – contrary to evidence indicating that this is patently untrue .

Toxic environments are not created by children – who are the victims in these environments – but by politicians and by the politics of austerity. Local council estates have been hollowed out by a decade of austerity which has ripped away funding for basic services for young people.

Let’s be clear, austerity is a deliberate political choice, it is not inevitable – but it has consequences. Austerity abrogates the responsibility to care for, to nurture and to lead children into positive lifestyles, shifting this responsibility to criminal gangs and drug dealers.

Children first

Responses to knife crime must be focused on the child and the adult environments that shape them. And they must involve partnerships between a variety of children’s services, such as youth offending teams and youth work, and other relevant organisations such as police, schools, and housing authorities.

These partnerships should prioritise positive behaviours and outcomes. Children need access to services, guidance and opportunities that build their strengths, capacities and aspirations, and develop their pro-social relationships with adults. Our own research indicates that this approach increases children’s achievements and successes , while decreasing negative behaviours and outcomes.

Children must be diverted away from toxic environments such as the youth justice system, into positive, nurturing ones. These environments should provide appropriate education, social care that meets children’s needs, effective youth services and training and employment opportunities. This is an approach that we’ve proven can improve children’s lives and their chances at school, finding work, and relationships with professionals, while reducing criminal and antisocial outcomes.

Engaging with children is sustainable and productive. Imposing interventions on children is short-term and destructive. It can make a bad situation worse.

Knife crime is a social problem – its causes, not its symptoms, must be treated, and austerity is one of its causes. The UK needs to refill local communities with positive services and activities for young people. Children are part of the solution to knife crime, not part of the problem.

• Young people
• Community services
• knife crime
• Youth violence

Sydney Horizon Educators (Identified)

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Deputy Social Media Producer

Associate Professor, Occupational Therapy

GRAINS RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION CHAIRPERSON

• Research article
• Open access
• Published: 25 September 2020

Risk factors associated with knife-crime in United Kingdom among young people aged 10–24 years: a systematic review

• Sara Haylock   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-7650-7527 1 ,
• Talia Boshari 1 , 2 ,
• Emma C. Alexander 3 , 4 ,
• Ameeta Kumar 5 ,
• Logan Manikam 4 , 6 &
• Richard Pinder 1 , 2  

BMC Public Health volume  20 , Article number:  1451 ( 2020 ) Cite this article

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Since 2013, the number of violent crimes and offences by sharp instruments have increased continually, following a previous decrease, with majority of cases occurring among young people and in London. There is limited understanding surrounding the drivers influencing this change in trends, with mostly American-based research identifying risk factors.

The aim of this review is to identify and synthesise evidence from a range of literature to identify risk factors associated with weapon-related crime, for young people (aged 10–24 years) within the UK.

A search strategy was generated to conduct a systematic search of published and grey literature within four databases (EMBASE, Medline, PsycINFO, and OpenGrey), identifying papers within a UK-context. Abstracts and full texts were screened by two independent reviewers to assess eligibility for inclusion, namely study focus in line with the objectives of the review. Weight of Evidence approach was utilised to assess paper quality, resulting in inclusion of 16 papers. Thematic analysis was conducted for studies to identity and categorise risk factors according to the WHO ecological model.

No association was found between gender or ethnicity and youth violence, contrasting current understanding shown within media. Multiple research papers identified adverse childhood experiences and poor mental health as positively associated with youth and gang violence. It was suggested that community and societal risk factors, such as discrimination and economic inequality, were frequently linked to youth violence.

A small number of studies were included within the review as this is a growing field of research, which may have led to a constrained number of risk factors identified. Due to heterogeneity of studies, a meta-analysis could not be conducted. As many studies displayed positive results, publication bias may be present.

Conclusions

Several risk factors were identified, with evidence currently heterogeneous with minimal high-quality studies. However, findings highlight key areas for future research, including the link between poor mental health and knife-crime, and the trajectory into gangs. Risk factors should help identify high-risk individuals, targeting them within mitigation strategies to prevent involvement within crime. This should contribute to efforts aimed at reducing the rising crime rates within UK.

Systematic review registration number

CRD42019138545 .

Registered at PROSPSERO: 16/08/2019.

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Youth violence, as defined in Fig. 1 , has been increasing globally resulting in substantial economic, social, and psychological costs. Globally interpersonal violence and homicide is the third leading cause of death for 15–19 year olds [ 1 ] and although during the 49th World Health Assembly this was declared as a major, worldwide, and increasing issue, strategies aimed to reduce youth violence are yet to be prioritised and implemented.

Definitions of key terms mentioned within the review

Youth violence is a particularly pertinent issue in the United Kingdom. According to police-recorded data, the United Kingdom (UK) has seen increasing incidence of youth violence since 2012/13 [ 2 ], contrasting with a preceding period of improvement observed globally over the years 2000–12 [ 3 ]. A significant trend has been the rise in weapon-related crime, with 285 homicides committed involving a knife or sharp instrument in year ending March 2018 - an increase of 70 offences compared to the previous year [ 1 ]. Recent data from the Office for National Statistics revealed an 16% increase in the number of offences involving a knife or sharp instrument in the year ending March 2018 ( n  = 40,147). This figure is suspected to underestimate the actual number of incidents due to issues of record identification from the Greater Manchester Police. Furthermore, in 2017, the most common form of homicide was by sharp instrument with 39,598 offences (a 22% increase since 2016 and 55% increase since 2014) [ 4 ].

A large number of young people involved in violence are dying as a result of sharp instruments. Data also shows young people are disproportionately affected by weapon-related crime. The number of homicide victims for the age group 0–24 years is consistently the highest and continues to increase in contrast to all other age groups (excluding 35–44 years) which have remained stable [ 2 ]. Similar trends have been observed regarding weapon possession, specifically ‘articles with a blade or point’ [ 4 ]. This has resulted in a 55% rise in the number of hospital admissions involving young people in England for assaults involving a sharp instrument since 2012/13 [ 5 ], therefore displaying the impact on health services, individuals, and the wider community.

Location also seems to influence this public health issue. For example, London accounts for 48% of the increase in weapon-related crime [ 2 ] and recent data also displays a contrast of the number of offences between metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas. This variability may reflect disparities in socioeconomic status, education, availability of weapons, and crime levels. For example, deprivation is shown to contribute to violent crime, as risk of victimisation of those unemployed is double the national average and homicide offenders are most likely to have low socioeconomic status (SES) [ 6 ].

Gang violence has received significant attention within the media and is often described as the driving factor behind the rise in knife crime in London [ 7 ]. In 2007/08, 55 young people aged 13–19 years died in violent circumstances and according to MPS more than half of these were gang-related [ 8 ]. In early 2019, media reports of stabbings and homicides increased dramatically, creating confusion surrounding gangs and their characteristics. For example, in March BBC News reported 5 gang members were arrested for knife crime within a school [ 9 ]. Also, young males of ethnic minority groups, such as African-Caribbean, along with immigrants and asylum seekers are described as causing the majority of youth violence [ 10 ], although associations are yet to be investigated.

Gangs are not wholly responsible for this recent surge in youth violence and the contribution by gangs is difficult to quantify as there is no precise or legal definition of a ‘gang’. Although similarities exist between two commonly used definitions - displayed in figure one – there are clear differences. The link between gang violence and violent crime requires further investigation.

Despite the rising tide of weapon-related crime, minimal research has been conducted within a UK-context with the majority of research, displayed by the WHO, guiding mitigation strategies based on American gangs and associated violence. The social and legal context of these two countries differ, particularly around availability and use of firearms. Therefore, this research has limited use [ 11 ]. Multiple risk factors have been identified, including but not limited to: race, gender, gang membership, deprivation, social media, and adverse childhood experiences (ACE). However, risk factors lack clarity, are yet to be collectively analysed, and require a systematic assessment and evaluation.

Research question

What are the risk and protective factors relating to the rise in knife crime associated with weapon carrying, weapon usage, homicides, gang involvement, or victimisation of weapon-related crime, for young people (aged 10–24 years) within the UK?

The aim of this systematic review is to identify and synthesise evidence from a wide range of literature to identify risk or protective factors associated with weapon carrying, weapon usage, homicides, gang involvement, or victimisation of weapon-related crime, for young people (aged 10–24 years) within the UK.

There has been a clear and consistent rise in police-recorded incidents involving a knife or sharp instrument in the UK since 2014 [ 5 ], with weapon-crime described as a new epidemic [ 12 ]. This challenge requires a holistic approach and Public Health would provide a central role in characterising responses and providing leadership. Relying entirely on law enforcement would be inefficient. However, the complexity of weapon-related crime and associated risk factors is not completely understood as minimal research has investigated these risk factors within a UK setting. This lack of research has led to misleading media reporting and no consistent or strategic approach to tackle this growing problem. Through identifying common risk factors, interventions can be aimed at those vulnerable to future involvement within violent crime, acting as a preventative method. Differences between gang members and non-gang youths also need to be highlighted as this may help inform timely interventions, reaching youths before they engage in gang activities.

This review focuses exclusively on young people aged 10–24 years given the significant increase in victimisation and involvement within violent crimes compared to any other age group, introduced previously [ 4 , 12 ].

This systematic review is the first paper to combine information, from published literature, of youth violence and associated risk factors within a UK context. This paper aims to provide essential evidence, directing future interventions to effectively reduce weapon-related crime and understanding the trajectory of individuals into violent crime and - in some cases - gang membership.

The protocol is registered to PROSPERO (CRD42019138545, https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/ ) and is reported according to PRISMA guidelines.

Search strategy

A research phase enabled the development of search terms (Fig. 2 ), specific to study setting, which were entered into EMBASE, Medline, and PsycINFO. Keywords from each term were combined to further narrow results, ensuring relevant articles were identified, for example searching ‘adolescent’ AND ‘knife crime’ AND ‘United Kingdom’. Using terms such as ‘youth violence’ and ‘knife crime’, a search was performed on the database OpenGrey to include grey literature, thus investigating information beyond published articles. There was limited capability to form a structured search on OpenGrey, therefore a search string similar to the search strategy used for research databases was not possible. English was set as a language limit, removing articles without translation available. An example search strategy can be found in Appendix A .

Search strategy used to identify papers within academic databases. Full search strategies can be available from authors on request.

Inclusion criteria

Papers were included within the review if they met the following criteria, ensuring risk factors were specifically associated with weapon-related crime within the UK:

Paper identified risk or protective factors associated with weapon carrying, weapon usage, homicides, gang involvement, or victimisation of weapon-related crime;

Study participants included young people (aged 10–24 years);

Article setting was within United Kingdom;

The paper was a form of published paper, grey literature, conference abstract, or unpublished thesis.

Articles were excluded if:

Population did not look specifically at young people (aged 10–24 years);

Papers identified risk factors associated with sexual violence or other violent/victim-based crime (as the review focuses on risk factors associated with crime involving knives or sharp instruments and not associated with any other crime);

Papers identified special education needs/drug or alcohol misuse as risk factors as these associations have already been well-reported throughout previous research;

English translation was not available;

Papers were published prior 1990 in order to ensure relevance.

Study selection, data extraction and analysis

A two-stage screening process was conducted, identifying articles eligible for study involvement. Initially, titles and abstracts were reviewed independently by two reviewers and, if meeting inclusion criteria, articles were deemed eligible for the second phase of screening. Full texts were assessed against criteria to evaluate whether papers were suitable for study inclusion. Any discrepancies in screening or data extraction were discussed until a consensus was reached.

As part of a narrative synthesis a deductive thematic analysis [ 13 ] was conducted on studies to extract and categorise risk factors, in-line with the WHO Ecological Framework, used to guide violence prevention strategies [ 14 ]. The model was generated to display the complexity of risk factors associated with interpersonal violence, and how this outcome is an interaction of factors across a variety of levels [ 14 ]. The ecological model classifies risk factors into four main groups: individual, relationships, community, and societal – each category is further broken down by the WHO, to provide a list of key variables, and are displayed in Table 2 [ 14 ]. The categories within this model were used when interpreting the review’s findings. It was expected that the majority of risk factors identified within studies would align with the WHO framework. However, certain risk factors mentioned in the model were not captured within included studies (displayed in Table 2 ). This may be a result of the limited number of studies included within the review.

During the preliminary synthesis, the thematic analysis was conducted as papers were analysed by searching for risk factors that aligned with the themes developed from the existing WHO concepts [ 14 ] (Table 2 ). This was used to identify any patterns, similarities or differences of risk factors across the included studies. When identified, the primary author coded risk factors by colour and inputted into a spreadsheet. These were then tabulated to organise, present, and count findings following the WHO framework. Paragraphs were then drafted based on the frequency that a risk factor was mentioned across the studies. For example, seven studies highlighted ‘adverse childhood experiences’ as a risk factor, therefore these results were further explained. By using pre-determined themes, this research aims to guide recommendations based on a variety of studies, ensuring results can be utilised for future public health policies.

Meta-analysis was not conducted due to study heterogeneity in methodology and focus. Heterogeneity was assessed in the included studies for: clinical heterogeneity (the varied participant groups and outcomes assessed); and methodological heterogeneity (the differing WOE scores (Table 1 ) as well as study design, and statistical tests performed). Diversity of study is portrayed in Appendix B . This contains a summary table presenting key characteristics of included studies, providing information about study design, population, outcomes, and statistical tests when appropriate. This was reported prior to the preliminary synthesis.

To assess the robustness of the narrative synthesis, the primary research articles included were quality appraised, at study level, by the primary author using the Weight of Evidence approach (WOE) [ 15 ]. This method was selected as a variety of different study designs were collected with a range of information available. This process allows for integration of evidence obtained from various results and methodologies when answering the proposed research question. This form of analysis assesses the overall quality of each paper depending on the following three criteria: WOE A (used to examine the clarity and accuracy of information); WOE B (assessing appropriateness of study methodology); and WOE C (how relevant study findings are to this systematic review). For each study, these three judgements were then combined to provide WOE D: an overall assessment of quality and relevance of evidence for risk factors associated with weapon usage and knife crime (Table 1 ). Research papers were ranked as either high (H), medium (M), or low (L) and were included only if overall quality (WOE D) rated as high or medium. These rankings were used to evaluate strength of key findings and results. Where there was uncertainty concerning study quality following the above criteria, the primary author liaised with co-authors to clarify ranking. This aimed to ensure reliability of the quality appraisal.

The Synthesis Without Meta-analysis (SWiM) guideline [ 16 ] was used to ensure clarity when reporting methods, including the narrative synthesis, and results of the review. A supplementary table outlining the checklist and where to find the reported information within the manuscript can be found in Appendix C .

A total of 2335 articles were originally identified from the initial search (PRISMA flowchart (Fig.  3 )), from which 622 duplicates were removed, resulting in 1713 articles taken forward for abstract review. Stage one review excluded a further 1665 articles and stage two, 31. Seventeen articles were included in the WOE quality assessment, where only one paper was excluded from the review with a quality ranked as low (L). Therefore, 16 articles were included in the systematic review. A quantitative analysis was not undertaken due to the heterogeneity of studies included ( Appendix B ), and therefore a narrative synthesis of risk factors influencing weapon-related crime was conducted.

PRISMA flowchart displaying the number of articles found from each database (2,335), number of duplicates removed (622), papers removed from abstract screening (1,665), and removed from full text screening (31).

Study characteristics

Of the 16 articles included, one was an intervention study evaluating current mitigation strategies for gang-related crime in London [ 8 ], while all other studies were observational. Included within the review were: three literature reviews [ 17 , 18 , 19 ]; three cohort studies [ 20 , 21 , 22 ]; three qualitative interview studies [ 8 , 23 , 24 ]; three case-control studies [ 25 , 26 , 27 ] 2017; and four cross-sectional studies [ 28 , 29 , 30 , 31 ]. All studies were conducted within the UK: four within the UK; one in Birmingham; one in Edinburgh; five in London; one in Wales; and one in England. Appendix B presents detail characteristics of each study, including study size and key findings.

To provide a rich reflection of evidence for the reader, we included both quantitative and qualitative studies as there is comparatively little evidence published on this topic within the inclusion parameters specified. Deductive thematic analysis was completed for qualitative papers using themes as set-out by the WHO. Therefore, if these themes/risk factors were identified within the paper, the paper was incorporated into Table 2 irrespective of study design.

As previously mentioned, risk factors were divided into four categories, and subcategories within these, following the Ecological Framework put forward by the WHO [ 3 ]: individual; relationships; community; and societal. WHO violence risk factors not identified within included studies are also shown. Each subcategory of risk factor is discussed in the subsequent sections. As mentioned previously, a paper focusing on education and crime age profile was not included within the review due to ranking low quality [ 32 ].

Individual risk factors

Of the 16 studies included within the review, 10 investigated the association of demography with knife crime (Table 2 ). All six studies investigating age found a positive association between knife crime and adolescence [ 21 , 23 , 26 , 28 , 30 , 31 ]. A 2006 cross-sectional study, using the Juvenile Attitudes Towards Weapon Scale (derived from the Attitudes Toward Guns and Violence Questionnaire), found that the prevalence of weapon carrying increases with age: 30% for individuals aged 11–13 years, 38.2% at 14–15, 47.4% at 16–17, and 52.6% at ages 18–19 [ 30 ] (WOE = H). Regarding gang violence, three studies found a young person, compared to other age groups, is positively associated with being in a gang [ 23 , 26 , 33 ]. Densley et al (WOE = M) interviewed 69 self-described gang members, recruited from six London boroughs experiencing high levels of socioeconomic deprivation, with an age range of 13–34 (mean age 20). A participant aged 25 years described gang life to be a ‘young man’s game’ and ‘when you’re younger it’s about what you’ve got now and how fast…when you’re older you’ve got more to lose’ [ 23 ].

Results were mixed regarding the association with gender. One cohort and one cross-sectional study showed males were more likely to be associated with knife crime [ 22 , 28 ]. However, a cohort study of in care homes suggested females were more likely to offend at a younger age [ 21 ](WOE = M). A cross sectional-study looked more closely at the characteristics of weapon-carrying, e.g. type and use of weapon, and found no significant difference on the basis of gender: although 27% of males used their weapon to injure compared to 19% of females [ 30 ]. No significant association between gang violence and gender was found in the three papers exploring this issue [ 24 , 26 , 31 ]. For example, both males and females expressing the need to be the ‘biggest, baddest and the most untouchable’ [ 26 ] (WOE = M).

A cohort study found no association between knife crime and the ethnicity of the victim or perpetrator when controlling for confounders, including sex and family structure at an individual level and neighbourhood deprivation at a community level [ 17 ](WOE = M). However, a literature review suggests that migrants and refugees may be at higher risk of victimisation of weapon-related crime [ 20 ] which may explain the overrepresentation within the media. A cross-sectional study of 797 school students and a case-control with 188 young offenders completed self-reported questionnaires and, through use of pre-determined criteria, were divided into categories depending on gang involvement. Comparisons of a variety of groups, rather than investigating one specific cohort of gang members, allows for differences to be evaluated. As neither studies identified a difference between the ethnicity of groups divided by level of gang involvement, this suggests no association with gang violence [ 20 , 25 , 31 ].

Adverse childhood experiences (ACE)

All seven studies investigating the association between teenagers with ACEs and weapon-related crime reported a positive association (Table 2 ). A cross-sectional study of 20 males convicted of homicide during their adolescence investigating adolescent homicide found that 25% of perpetrators had experienced either sexual or physical abuse and 90% were known to social services [ 29 ] (WOE = M), and all 20 had previously experienced neglect or parental separation [ 29 ] ; a higher prevalence compared to the general population. Within a study based in a care home, 91% of young people who had been convicted of a crime (the majority of which were violent or weapon-enabled) had experienced multiple placements (range of 1–30, mean of 8) [ 28 ] (WOE = M). Wood J et al (WOE = H) showed in a cross-sectional study that gang members and ‘gang affiliates’ self-reported more childhood traumatic events and were more likely to have been placed in local authority care compared to violent men not in a gang [ 27 ].

Three studies investigated the impact of school exclusion on involvement in knife crime [ 19 , 21 , 29 ]. However, one study did not show a clear association between education and gang membership. During qualitative interviews current and previous gang members expressed their opinions that school achievements and successful routes through education were unattainable [ 24 ]. On the other hand, some gang members had obtained GCSEs and were still involved in criminality [ 24 ].

Clement et al identified in a Bristol-based study that 80% of younger offenders had previously been excluded from school, suggesting a link between school exclusion and involvement in violence [ 19 ]. In contrast, Hayden et al found similar rates of school exclusion between offenders and non-offenders within a care home setting (40% for non-offenders and 44% for offenders) [ 21 ]. However, as all individuals were removed from their family home this may affect the findings.

Mental health

Three studies investigated mental health associated with knife crime and both described poor mental health (suicide/depression/self-harm described by participants) as a risk factor [ 27 , 29 , 30 ]. A cross-sectional study of 20 adolescents committing homicide revealed that all participants suffered from high levels of interpersonal conflict and psychological vulnerabilities [ 29 ]. A case-control study of 1539 men found that self-identified gang members and gang affiliates had a higher prevalence of psychological issues, including anxiety, psychosis and suicide attempt, than violent men not involved in gangs [ 27 ]. For the particular study, gang affiliates and members both were involved in gang-related activity, however, categories differed as gang affiliates did not identify as a gang member.

Victimisation

Three studies investigated a link between previous victimisation of weapon-related crime and offending [ 20 , 27 , 30 ] that among young people self-reporting weapon possession within the last 6 months, ‘reactive weapon carriers’ - where weapon was used in conflict resolution, or user was a victim of threat, and/or injury - reported previously being a victim of threat or injury. Smith D et al (WOE = M) found that victims of bulling were also more likely to offend and be victims of weapon-related crime. Furthermore, gang members were more likely to be targeted as victims and self-reported more serious injuries compared to non-gang members [ 30 ]. Gang affiliates also reported more incidents involving physical attacks compared to violent men who were not part of gangs, however unexpectedly more than gang members [ 27 ]. Results found individuals who self-reported victimisation were more likely to offend and vice versa, therefore a bidirectional relationship may exist between being a perpetrator and victim of weapon-related crime.

Relationships risk factors

Seven studies reported peer influence as an important risk factor for knife crime (Table 2 ). For example, Barlas et al (WOE = H) described self-identified ‘offensive weapon carriers’ – those who carry weapons to injure or threaten – considered peer influence an important reason for weapon carrying. In conjunction with this, two studies showed peer influence as an important risk factor for gang membership [ 25 , 26 ]. A majority (65%) of self-described gang members, and 57% of self-described members who also met Eurogang definition, identified one reason for joining was ‘because a friend was a member of the group’ [ 25 ].

Two studies investigated parental relationships in association with knife crime and all identified that strong parental attachment acted as a protective factor [ 20 , 22 ]. At age 15, a cohort study found conflicts with parents increased risk of victimisation and offending [ 20 ].

Six studies included in this review investigated the impact of deprivation, all of which showed a positive association with knife crime. During interviews, Densley et al (WOE = M) concluded that areas with low socioeconomic status increase risk of gang involvement and with one interviewed gang member describing London communities as ‘built to encourage crime’ [ 23 ]. According to a literature review, crime rates are highest in areas of economic deprivation, increasing the chance of adolescents’ involvement within violent crimes [ 18 ]. Alongside this, individuals who identified as ‘defensive weapon carriers’ expressed the need to carry weapons for personal safety in high crime areas [ 30 ]. Deprivation can further result in low social cohesion which has further been associated with offending behaviour of adolescents and gang members [ 31 ].

Three studies suggested a positive impact of economic deprivation and knife crime (Table 3). Densely et al explains how economic inequalities have forced young men into ‘self-destructive behaviour’ as the societal problems have left individuals with minimal options [ 23 ]. Four studies showed a positive association between stigma and discrimination and weapon-related crime [ 8 , 23 , 25 , 31 ]. A cross-sectional study of 797 secondary school students found negative perceptions of authority were highest in gang members, followed by peripheral youth (individuals involved within gang-related activity, but not classified as members), and lowest in non-gang youth [ 31 ]. Furthermore, within interviews gang members described themselves as ‘urban outcasts’, explaining that ‘[they’re] automatically stereotyped, it’s like all black people are criminals… after a time you feel like ‘oh we a gang now? Ok we’ll show you gang’ [ 23 ].

Three studies described violence and weapon carrying as a method of gaining status, power, and masculinity [ 19 , 30 , 31 ]. For example, Barlas et al (WOE = H) found young people explained the most common reasons for weapon carrying were: ‘for looking cool’, ‘other people’s respect’, ‘feeling powerful’, and ‘peer admiration’ [ 30 ]. Within five studies, gangs were described as providing identity, status, and companionship with membership proving as a method to build an individual’s reputation [ 19 , 24 , 25 , 26 , 31 ]. For example, gang members have expressed the desire to ‘win approval from peers’ and two studies found that young gang members perceived social status as more important compared to non-gang-involved adolescents [ 19 , 30 ].

Violence is a complex issue as many risk factors are interlinked, thus determining each predictor’s overall influence difficult to characterise. However, the results of the systematic review suggest an unstable environment - within a family, community, or society setting – derived from a multitude of risk factors is a key driver for involvement in weapon-related crime. This is the first systematic review to assess a wide range of literature to identify risk factors for weapon-related crime, collating and analysing information surrounding a topical and growing public health issue.

Ethnicity and community factors

Results did not identify a strong relationship between ethnicity and youth violence when controlling for confounders, such as SES [ 20 , 25 , 31 ], which contrasts information displayed in the media. While ethnicity had no association, community and societal factors such as economic deprivation did, and these characteristics tended to correlate with certain ethnic minorities. For example, results showed migrants and refugees recently entering the UK were at higher risk of victimisation [ 17 ] – this may be a result of discrimination these individuals face when entering a new community. It has also been shown that gangs are homogenous and often mirror the demography of the community they associate with [ 31 ]. This relationship between risk factors may lead to the overrepresentation of ethnic minorities as perpetrators and victims of weapon-related crime within police-recorded data and the media.

This systematic review did not reveal a clear association between gender and youth violence. The societal pressures of males to display masculinity may provide a possible explanation for their increased threatening behaviour [ 33 ]. Research papers investigating the link between gender and weapon-related crime have shown there are multiple aspects of behaviour regarding knife crime, for example ownership, type of weapon, and use. However, due to the mixed evidence in this review alone, it is not possible to confirm this relationship or if gender is a risk factor.

Adverse childhood experiences

Seven studies identified ACEs as significant risk factors for weapon-related crime, which strongly supports the relationship between early childhood trauma and violence. It can be argued that trauma and an unstable family life create an environment which is likely to manifest aggression and poor mental health, increasing the risk of violent behaviour [ 34 ]. This coincides with previous knowledge regarding the long-term effects of traumatic childhood on health within adulthood, including economic deprivation, anxiety, and aggression [ 35 , 36 , 37 ]. Gangs may also provide a sense of security that is lacking from their family environment and, as mentioned by Public Health England, a sense of belonging which is fundamental for an individual’s social identity [ 38 ]. Furthermore, two studies highlighted the protective nature of strong parental attachment [ 20 , 22 ] which further supports the importance of a stable home environment and may counteract the effects caused by ACEs. Similar results were found in US-based studies with parental monitoring being negatively associated with gang membership, reducing the effect of other risk factors on adolescents [ 39 ].

This is further supported by the association between poor mental health and weapon-related crime, identified by Bailey et al, Barlas et al, and Clement et al. Poor mental health may be on the causal pathway from ACEs to violent behaviour as those suffering from trauma are more likely to experience poor mental health [ 36 ]. Therefore, these individuals are more likely to act aggressively and those with suicidal thoughts might not consider the repercussions of their actions.

Strengths and limitations

There is limited understanding of risk factors for weapon-related crime among young people and current knowledge of gangs has mostly been derived from research conducted within the USA, which means findings will be influenced by its environment of high gun ownership and incarceration rates. Within a growing field of research, this paper is the first to collect information from scientific and grey literature, analysing and comparing risk factors for weapon-related crime. Therefore, this review provides essential evidence on risk factors identifying which individuals are at high-risk, directing public health interventions to target those most vulnerable to effectively reduce youth violence. Results are also specific to the UK, with other reports focusing on wider regions, such as Europe, allowing for precise suggestions for mitigation.

However, findings should be balanced against a number of limitations. Only 16 studies were eligible for inclusion, which may have resulted in a constrained range of risk factors identified. However, this is a growing field of research, resulting in a limited number of sources available. Literature reviews were also included within the review and these may be affected by the authors experience or personal views, therefore these should be contextualised. A meta-analysis could not be conducted due to the heterogeneity and types of studies included within the review, therefore a statistical estimate of effect for each risk factor could not be produced. A narrative synthesis was conducted, which may have resulted in unreliability, lack of transparency, and potential reviewer bias as conclusions are based on subjective interpretation [ 40 ]. However, due to the substantial heterogeneity in populations, outcome, and methodology, a narrative synthesis was the most appropriate methodology for this review. Although we included grey literature, publication bias is likely to be present, particularly as many studies included within the review conclude positive results. Studies suggesting no association with risk factors and youth violence might by underrepresented within this review.

With regards to the studies included within the review, qualitative interviews investigating gang membership used a chain referral method to recruit participants. This would have inherent bias as only a specific group of individuals are likely to be included within the analysis, potentially only identifying the same risk factors. Self-reported questionnaires were also utilised, which may have resulted in erroneous recall. However, due to the sensitive nature of the topic, these methods may be most appropriate to ensure individuals provide honest and accurate information.

Comparison with previous literature

The identification of risk factors such as ACEs and poor mental health is in line with previous knowledge as a relationship exists between trauma and involvement within weapon-related crime. For example, multiple studies have highlighted the effect of childhood trauma on adolescent and adult health, psychological and physical [ 36 ]. Areas of high crime, violent incidents, low socioeconomic status and the relationship with youth violence have also previously been highlighted within previous worldwide research [ 3 ]. However, contrasting previous literature, no significant association was found between gender and youth violence. Reports have suggested females play secondary roles within violent crime and gang activity [ 10 ], which may suggest the characteristics of gangs are evolving and research needs updating.

Although many risk factors mentioned within this review have been previously identified, they have not yet been collectively analysed. Therefore, compared to previous literature, this review highlights the interconnected nature of risk factors for weapon-related crime and the necessity for a holistic preventative approach.

Policy implications

As no clear association was found between gender, ethnicity and weapon-related crime, policy makers should avoid targeting individuals based on stereotypes in these areas. This may also reduce discrimination within policy efforts, ensuring a holistic approach to mitigate youth violence. Individuals with ACEs and mental health issues should be targeted within prevention strategies as results suggest these groups are at high-risk for future involvement within violent crime. Thus far studies investigating this outcome have been very heterogeneous and mixed in quality, further research is necessary in order to aid the design of interventions and to aid policymakers.

To prevent individuals in areas of deprivation using violence as a method to improve social status, it is essential for policy makers to target areas of deprivation when tackling gang crime. Strategies should be aimed at improving employment skills, self-esteem, and also community involvement to increase social cohesion at a young age given the influence of ACEs, acting to prevent future formation of gangs as well as improve the quality of life for the adolescent population.

Youth violence is an increasing public health issue within the UK and London in particular. This study collected information regarding risk factors from a wide range of sources, uniquely examining them within a UK setting. The review demonstrates the importance of stability for an adolescent during times of vulnerability with each risk factor eroding this sense of security. Although it is important to recognise not all adolescents with these risk factors will commit crimes or engage in gangs or violent behaviour, the identified risk factors can act as warning signs that captures young people before they become victims of violence. This provides essential evidence on which individuals are at high-risk, directing public health interventions to target those most vulnerable to effectively reduce youth violence.

Availability of data and materials

The papers analysed within the review are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

Abbreviations

Adverse Childhood Experience

Socioeconomic status

United Kingdom

World Health Organization

Weight of Evidence

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This research was supported by the National Institute for Health Research Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care Northwest London (NIHR CLAHRC NWL), now recommissioned as NIHR Applied Research Collaboration Northwest London.

Logan Manikam is Director of Aceso Global Health Consultants Limited & is also funded via a National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Advanced Fellowship (Ref: NIHR300020).

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SH conducted initial research during planning stages of the review and developed the research question and inclusion criteria. SH was the primary reviewer for paper inclusion and quality assessment of papers. SH conducted the thematic analysis and narrative synthesis, interpreted results, and was the primary writer for the systematic review. TB provided help during planning of review and designing systematic review, including identifying search terms and using WHO ecological model for analysis. TB was involved in interpretation of data and helped categorise study findings into categories of the ecological model. Also contributed to multiple drafts of systematic review. EA and LM contributed to design of work and systematic review methodology, ensuring review aligns to PRISMA guidelines. EA provided WOE method for paper analysis offered second opinion when uncertain. EA also contributed to multiple drafts of the review, providing extensive feedback. AK was the second independent reviewer of papers for review inclusion, playing a key role in acquisition of studies. RP: oversaw design of the review, outlying search strategy and was involved in analysis through suggestion of thematic analysis; offered interpretations of studies and how findings should be categorised according to ecological model and contributed to drafting and editing of review throughout process. All authors have read, edited, and approved the submitted version of the systematic review.

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((((Weapon* OR Knife crime* OR Sharp Instrument* OR Stabbing* OR Knives OR Blade*OR Criminal* OR Assault* OR Homicide* OR Murder* OR weapon carrying)) AND (Youth* OR Adolescent* OR Adolescence OR teen* OR Juvenile OR Young Adult* OR Student* OR Pre$teen* OR Youngster* OR Pre$adolescent OR young person)) AND (UK OR GB OR Great Britain OR London OR England)) AND (UK OR GB OR Great Britain OR London OR England)

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Haylock, S., Boshari, T., Alexander, E.C. et al. Risk factors associated with knife-crime in United Kingdom among young people aged 10–24 years: a systematic review. BMC Public Health 20 , 1451 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-020-09498-4

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Exploring UK Knife crime and its associated factors: A content analysis of online newspapers

Divya vinnakota.

1 Department of Nursing and Public Health, University of Sunderland in London, UK

Q.M. Rahman

2 NHS, London, UK

Brijesh Sathian

3 Geriatrics and long-term care Department, Rumailah Hospital, Doha, Qatar

Ancy Chandrababu Mercy Bai

4 School of Allied Health, Anglia Ruskin University, Essex, UK

Nikulin Deividas

5 Copenhagen Business School, Denmark

Maneesha-Varghese Pellissery

Sajna kizhackanaly abdul kareem, md. rakibul hasan, ali davod parsa, russell kabir.

All authors have made substantial contributions to all of the following: (1) the conception and design of the study (2) drafting the article or revising it critically for important intellectual content, (3) final approval of the version to be submitted

There is no conflict of interest for any author of this manuscript.

This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sector.

Knife crime has become a common phrase used by the media, but it is not always clear what it refers to or what they mean when they use the term. Knife crime can cover many offences, making it challenging to define and estimate its prevalence. This review aimed to evaluate potential knife crimes in the UK from 2011 to 2021 and analyse the causes and risk factors associated with the crimes. Six UK online news portals were purposefully chosen to be included in the study, and knife crime news was searched retrospectively. The term “knife crime” was used to search. The news portals were the: Metro, the Sun, the Guardian, Daily Mail, Daily Mirror and the Evening Standard. In the assigned news portals, 692 reports were found between January 2011 and December 2021. The study revealed that the 11-20 years of age group individuals are more vulnerable as victims, and males are more reported as victims when compared to females. About 61.8% of knife crimes are reported from South England. Knife crime risk is higher in early adulthood and among males. Street violence, fights/gang attacks, family issues and robbery are the leading causes of knife crime and have all been identified as risk factors that must be addressed with caution.

Knife crime has become a common phrase used by the media, but it is not always clear what it refers to or what they mean when they use the term. Knife crime can cover many offences, making defining and estimating its prevalence challenging. Undoubtedly, producing a knife in the commission of a crime, such as a robbery or sexual assault, is a ‘knife crime,’ regardless of intent. It disproportionately impacts young individuals and people from disadvantaged backgrounds [ 1 ]. Additionally, the media referred to crimes committed with knives as an “epidemic” that significantly influenced younger generations [ 2 ]. This ‘epidemic’ resulted in the death of the victim, injuries to body parts or internal organs, fractures, scarring, and mental trauma[ 3 ].

Attacks with knives and fatal stabbings occur worldwide, even in the nations with the lowest overall crime rates and the highest violent crime rates [ 4 ]. According to the 2019 Global Study on Homicide published by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, knives were the murder weapon of choice in 97,183 of the world’s total killings in 2017. This rate accounts for 22% of the total homicides [ 5 ]. Many “lone wolf” assailants turn to the kitchen knife as their preferred weapon for their crime. In addition, they use various sharp tools, such as scissors and axes [ 5 ]. The frequency of knife-related violence varies significantly from one region to the next.

Knife crime is linked to individual risk factors like gender [ 6 ]; age [ 7 ]; ethnicity, financial deprivation, and socio-economic background [ 8-9 ]; exposure to violence and prior victimisation [ 8 ]; mental illness and drug addiction [ 4 ]; low educational attainment and exclusion from mainstream education [ 10 ]. Family background and adverse childhood experiences [ 11 ]; lack of accessible alternative activities; gang involvement and territoriality [ 12 ]; deprivation, and violence [ 11 ] are also risk factors at the interpersonal and community level.

Knife crime offences in England and Wales have increased by 80% in the last five years [ 13 ], reaching levels not seen since 1946 [ 14 ]. Offences involving knives or sharp instruments rose by six per cent from 47,388 to 50,019 in England and Wales before the first Covid-19 lockdown was imposed [ 15 ]. Of these offences, 44% were for assault with injury or assault with intent to cause serious harm, and 44% were used in robbery [ 15 ]. Most of the victims and the perpetrators of these crimes were Black or Asian, especially young people aged 10 to 25 [ 16-18 ]. This gap could be related to the more significant proportion of BAME people living in London [ 16 ], which accounts for nearly a third of knife offences [ 17-18 ].

When unemployment rises, and work opportunities are limited, it may be difficult for some younger folks to see a promising future. They were forced to resort to risky means of obtaining money since no other option was available, and they carried knives to defend themselves. A comprehensive understanding of the causes and risk factors of knife crimes could prevent the increasing knife crime burden, especially among youth. Knife crime in the UK is considered a growing public health concern and in-depth knowledge of UK knife crime statistics are necessary. Until now, no such report has been published on knife crime in the UK. This review aimed to evaluate potential knife crimes in the UK from 2011 to 2021 and analyse the causes and risk factors associated with the crimes.

Data collection

Six UK online news portals were purposefully chosen to be included in the study, and knife crime news was searched retrospectively by seven authors. Because English is the country’s official language, only English online news portals were chosen. The portals were selected after the authors conducted a background search before beginning the study. The authors concentrated on the circularity of the portals and made conclusions based on their findings. The authors chose the most popular portals on this purpose. The term “knife crime” was used to search. The news portals were the: Metro, the Sun, the Guardian, Daily Mail, Daily Mirror and the Evening Standard. Retrospectively, news portals were initially searched with the search term. The contents of online journals were chosen because they were readily available and made a retrospective analysis of knife crimes easier. Age, place of knife crime, crime date, and other identifying variables were used to find repetitions. Duplications were defined as reports of the same knife crime in different portals and a total of 167 duplicate reports were excluded. The final data is entered into the software after removing the repetitions. A total of 692 knife crime reports were assessed and analysed by Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) version 26 and Microsoft excel version 2018 software.

Inclusion of news

News of that was indicated as knife crime, and knife crime news bounded by the geographical area of the UK (especially England) were considered inclusion criteria.

Age of the victim and the perpetrator, gender of the victim and the perpetrator, race of the victim and the perpetrator (if known), number of victims and perpetrators involved, date published, leading cause of crime (if known) and the location are considered as variables of the study.

No formal ethical clearance was considered because the data only included previously published information available online.

In the assigned news portals, 692 reports were found between January 2011 and December 2021. The metro reported 34% of knife crime cases among the six online news portals screened, followed by the guardian (26.2%), evening standard (15.6%), daily mirror (15.5%), and the sun (8.8%). Six hundred and eighty-two cases were reported, with 61.8 percent coming from the south and 14.9% from the north. In total, 911 people were victims in these 692 reports. Around 81.8 percent of reports mention only one victim, while 18.2% mention multiple numbers of victims (ranging from 2-to 8 people) ( Table 1 ).

Distribution of demographic variables of the victims mentioned in 6 UK online news portals

Out of the 911 victims, 71.7% reported cases were less than 40 years of age, 72.8% were male, and 22.2% were female. The majority of the cases did not mention the race of the victims. Out of those reported, White/European/British were 5.8%, black/African were 5.8%, and 2.2% were Asians. The top three reasons for knife crime are 23.1% for street violence, 15% for fights/gang attacks, and 7.7% for family issues as reported in Table 2 .

Cause of the knife crimes mentioned in 6 UK online news portals

The total number of perpetrators involved in these 692 reports was 879 individuals. Multiples perpetrators are involved in 13.6% of cases (ranging from 2-to 8 people), while 56.5% of subjects report the involvement of a single perpetrator (56.5%). Out of all perpetrators, 66.2% were male, and 6.4% were females. Most perpetrators were under 40 years of age (92.5%). Most of the perpetrator’s race is not mentioned. Of those reported, about 5.2% were Black/African, 4.6% were White/European/British, and remaining 1.5% were Asians as shown in Table 3 .

Distribution of demographic variables of the perpetrators mentioned in 6 UK online news portals

As knife crime is an underexplored issue, we aimed to look into knife crime variables between January 2011 and December 2021 based on online news portal reports retrospectively. The study revealed that 11-20 years of age group individuals are more vulnerable as victims, and males are more reported as victims when compared to females. About 61.8% of knife crimes are reported from South England. Street violence is the primary cause of knife crime compared to all other reasons. The more vulnerable age group among the perpetrators is also 11-20.

Males are reported as perpetrators than females. There was a downfall in reported knife crimes between 2011 and 2016. Since 2017, there has been an inclination in the number of reported cases (Figure 1). Overall, it has been found that young adult males are both victims and perpratrators of knife crime.

Good social skills, self-esteem, academic achievement, strong bonds with parents, positive peer groups, positive school attachment, community involvement, and access to social support are all factors that can help prevent young people from becoming violent. Reduced risk factors and increased protective factors have been shown to reduce youth violence. Social policy and long-term systematic approaches to addressing the root causes of violence can make the region safer.

Another factor contributing to young people’s attitudes toward criminal knife behavior is a lack of understanding of the legal and medical consequences of knife stabbing. Safety measures like workshops and group discussions among young people at an earlier age in schools about the danger of knives are helpful in tackling the problem to some extent.

Knife crime is a public health concern that can be prevented, and steps should be taken to safeguard people’s quality of life. A wide range of studies would be required to properly assess the problem and take the necessary steps to prevent it.

Knife crime is an underrated social issue in the UK.The study’s findings may provide a still picture of knife crime variables in news reporting aspects because only six online news portals were examined from January 2011 to December 2021. But to the best of the authors’ knowledge, it is the first online news analysis on knife crime in the UK. There are certain limitations as the authors scrutinised the published online news portals, so the data source is not strictly scientific. Furthermore, the study has used only six national newspaper and some important variables were missing. More broad studies would contribute to closing the large information gap in knife crime research in the United Kingdom.

Knife crime has yet to gain attention in the United Kingdom. Knife crime risk is higher in early adulthood and among males. Street violence, fights/gang attacks, family issues, and robbery are the leading causes of knife crime and have all been identified as risk factors that must be addressed with caution. From January 2011 to December 2021, the knife crime rate appears to be rising from 2017, with the highest rate in 2018.

Acknowledgement

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Half of teenagers in England and Wales have witnessed or been victims of violence, study reveals

UK’s largest survey on knife crime, bullying and gang rivalry has uncovered ‘shocking and unacceptable’ levels of violence

• Read more: ‘They’re demonised, labelled as criminals’: a lifeline for the young on one of London’s most violent estates

Half of all teenagers witnessed or were victims of violence in England and Wales last year, according to a landmark report by government advisers into what drives knife crime, bullying and gang rivalries.

The largest-ever survey in the UK of youngsters about the problem found “shocking and unacceptable” levels of youth violence, with 358,000 teenagers physically injured during the last 12 months.

The scale of the problem was also found to be undermining children’s education, with one in five teenagers admitting they had skipped school during the last 12 months because they felt unsafe, according to the Youth Endowment Fund (YEF) .

The YEF has received £200m of government funding to prevent serious youth violence and advises the Home Office and senior police officers on what works. The research, to be published on Monday, is based on a detailed survey of 7,500 teenagers and confirms the link between poverty and youth violence.

A third of teenagers in families who rely on food banks were found to be victims of violence in the last year.

Levels of violence were most pronounced among vulnerable children, with 37% of teenagers who are supported by a social worker admitting that they had been a victim.

The findings raise serious questions over the government’s approach to tackling youth violence. Critics say it relies too heavily on granting police more powers instead of tackling the root causes.

Jon Yates, executive director of the YEF, said: “The public, including my friends, tend to think this issue affects a very small group of people instead of recognising that actually half of all teenage children are seeing or experiencing violence.

“Adults, whether politicians or not, need to recognise that levels of violence are unacceptably high. This is not playground mucking about, when you consider the numbers getting properly injured or changing their behaviour because of fear of violence.”

However, the YEF is most concerned over how few perpetrators of violence receive sufficient mentoring or therapy to amend their behaviour.

Its research – the first of its kind in western Europe – found that nine in 10 teenagers who committed violence that led to physical injury received no subsequent support.

Yet studies show that mentoring programmes can prevent violence by reducing subsequent incidents by 21%. “On a positive note, it does show that we could make a colossal difference if we wanted to,” said Yates.

He added: “Sometimes there’s a degree of fatalism about violence, a sense it’s inevitable. We forget that homicide is about half the level it was 20 years ago, and there’s no reason it can’t be much lower.”

On Saturday hundreds of mourners lined the route to the funeral of 15-year-old Elianne Andam, who was stabbed to death on her way to school in Croydon, south London. A 17-year-old boy has been charged with her murder.

The latest high-profile murder of a teenager was last Tuesday, when 15-year-old Alfie Lewis was stabbed to death near a school in Leeds. A 14-year-old boy has been charged his murder.

From Monday, many police forces will undertake a week of action to tackle knife crime as part of Operation Sceptre , a national initiative which will include educational programmes and knife amnesties – although the YEF’s own studies indicates there is no clear evidence that knife-surrender schemes or knife-awareness initiatives work.

Elsewhere, the survey found that almost a half (47%) of teenagers said that violence or the fear of violence affected their daily lives and manifested itself in trouble sleeping, loss of appetite or difficulty concentrating at school.

“The fundamental thing that we all need is safety,” said Yates. “If you’re struggling to sleep, to travel to school or to go out and meet people because you’re afraid, it’s pretty hard to get everything else in your life working.”

The research also underlined the role of social media in propagating violence, with four in 10 teenagers believing that the technology played a role in encouraging it.

When perpetrators of violence were asked why they hurt others, more than half said it was because they felt baited, while bullying and “retaliation” were other prominent factors.

The research, which also interviewed 3,000 adults for their views on the problem of youth violence, found that teenage children were frequently the victims and the perpetrators of violence, with one in four saying they were both.

Another issue was the relatively high rates of violence involving girls, with one in 12 also admitting to perpetrating violence. Seven per cent of girls said they had been victims of sexual violence, compared with 5% of boys.

A Home Office spokesperson said: “We are investing heavily in a twin-track approach to reducing youth violence, which combines early intervention and prevention with tough enforcement measures.

“Since 2019, we have invested over £170m into the development of violence reduction units in the 20 areas worst affected by serious violence. This is alongside a further £170m we have provided to fund additional, targeted police patrols, reaching over 215,000 vulnerable young people in its third year of funding alone.

“We are also investing £200m over 10 years in the youth endowment fund to understand how to better prevent youth violence.”

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Helen McEntee frets about knife crime, although the evidence fails to show a big rise

Playing the law-and-order card may be a savvy political gambit, but hard facts stand up the argument.

Helen McEntee is concerned about a 'small and incremental problem here in Ireland'. Photograph: Conor McKeown

Fine Gael Minister for Justice Helen McEntee is a bit worried about knife crime. There is, she says, a “small and incremental problem here in Ireland and what we have to do is make sure it doesn’t get any worse”.

James Browne, the Fianna Fáil junior minister in her department, is very worried. He worked on the plan to bring in harsher sentencing for knife crimes which was approved by Cabinet this week. He would like to see bans on certain types of knives and an age limit for their purchase. He is also concerned about “Zombie knives”, although he admits the long-bladed weapons favoured by protagonists in zombie apocalypse movies are not very common here.

That is the problem in a nutshell. Playing the law-and-order card may be a tried and tested political gambit but it helps to have clear evidence of the scale of the problem you’re trying to fix. Leaning into the issue of knife crime is an old reliable in this regard, but aside from a few high-profile and horrific knife attacks recently, there is very little proof that Ireland has a growing problem with knife crime that can only be tackled with resolute action and muscular political leadership.

The one substantial bit of research on the topic seems to be an analysis of knife-crime data carried out by the Garda in February 2021, more than three years ago. The force looked at three things: the number of knives seized, crime incidents where a knife was involved; and the number of people discharged from hospital following an assault with a knife. The report found that the number of knives seized increased between 2016 and 2018 but said it was due largely to the introduction of a new system for recording objects confiscated by the gardaí which meant they were better able to track the number of knives involved.

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The number of knives seized between 2019-2020 (2,142 in 2019 and 2,243 in 2020) increased by 5 per cent, but the figures come with a caveat that there was a substantial increase in the number of searches carried out in 2020, many of which were related to “high visibility operations due to Covid-19″. Incidents where knives were involved fell between 2019 and 2020 – 1,534 in 2019 versus 1,333 in 2020. An incident is defined as a “case where an offender may have been in possession of a knife and used it to threaten but not carry out an assault or cause injury”. These are the types of offences that the tougher sentences proposed by McEntee and Browne are meant to combat.

[  Further action to tackle knife crime needed after Cabinet approves plans for harsher sentencing  ]

The final thing the Garda study looked at was hospital discharges. They found a slight increase in the numbers discharged following an assault with a knife between 2018 and 2019 but added they “remain considerably lower than those seen up to 2011 and below the slight rises seen between 2013 and 2015″. The report concluded that there was “no strong evidence to suggest that there has been any increase in crimes incidents involving knives”.

Aontú’s Peadar Tóibín, who is also worried about knife crime, went looking in January for information stabbings and knife attacks per country. He was told in a written answer to a Dáil question, by none other than James Browne, that the 2021 Garda review was the most up-to-date source of information, although Browne believed “an updated report, to end of 2023, is being prepared with a view to publication when complete”.

Some additional information on the number of people discharged from hospital after being treated for an assault with a knife is available. Figures supplied to this publication’s crime and security correspondent Conor Gallagher by the Health Service Executive show that 192 people were discharged in 2022, compared to 162 in 2021, 157 in 2020 and 178 in 2019. That is an average of 172 a year. There is also some additional information on knives seized including the figure of 2,186 in 2023. But as the Garda noted in their analysis, seizures are a function of Garda activity as much as anything else and in isolation are a pretty meaningless statistic.

It is not entirely inaccurate to say the recent data indicate a slightly growing problem with knife crime, but it is hardly a robust evidential basis for making policy that will have significant consequences for Garda and court resources which could be deployed elsewhere.

You would like to think that any serious approach to policymaking would require a slightly stronger evidence base, and at a minimum McEntee and Browne would have awaited the second Garda analysis, which is in the works. Then they could take steps based on the nature and scale of the problem.

But why wait for the facts when you are led by Taoiseach Simon Harris who told his first ardfheis: “Under my leadership, Fine Gael will always stand for law and order. We stand for more gardaí, with more powers and more resources to make our streets safe. We stand for tougher sentences for those who commit horrific crimes.”

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Spatial relationships among offender, knife, and victim during slashing attacks: implications for crime scene reconstruction

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• Jin Yang 1 , 2 ,
• Shangxiao Li 2 , 6 ,
• Shufang Yuan 3 ,
• Chaopeng Yang 4 ,
• Wenxia Guo 5 ,
• Mingzhi Wang 4 &
• Weiya Hao   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-8858-8827 2 , 6  

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The offender-victim spatial relationship is crucial in reconstructing a crime scene. The study aims to evaluate the spatial relationship of performing slashing attacks on a dummy using a Chinese kitchen knife, and thus to establish a scientific basis for crime scene reconstruction.

Twenty-four participants (12 males and 12 females) slashed a dummy’s neck or chest using a kitchen knife, and the kinematic data were obtained using a three-dimensional motion capture system. The spatial relationships among offender, knife, and victim during slashing attacks were analyzed.

Slashing distance and occupancy area are significantly influenced by gender (all P  < 0.05), with males having higher values than females. Body parts significantly influence bevel angle, offender and victim azimuth angles, slashing distance, relative slashing distance, and occupancy area (all P  < 0.01), with slashing the chest resulting in larger values than slashing the neck.

Gender and body position significantly influence the spatial relationships of slashing action. Our data indicate that males stand farther away and occupy a larger area during slashing attacks. When the chest is slashed, the wound orientation is more diagonal, the offender’s standing position and slashing distance are farther, and the occupancy area is larger compared to the neck. The findings could help identify the spatial relationships among offender, knife, and victim, providing a scientific basis for criminal investigations and court trials.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thank all the participants for their committed participation.

This study was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2017YFC0803802), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (12372323) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the China Institute of Sport Science.

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Jin Yang, Shangxiao Li, Bin Ni & Weiya Hao

Logistics University of Chinese People’s Armed Police Force, Tianjin, 300309, China

Shufang Yuan

Institute of Forensic Science, Ministry of Public Security, Beijing, 100038, China

Yi Shi, Chaopeng Yang & Mingzhi Wang

Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing, 100029, China

Research Center for Sports Psychology and Biomechanics, Institute of Sport Science, 10086, Beijing, China

Shangxiao Li & Weiya Hao

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Yang, J., Li, S., Yuan, S. et al. Spatial relationships among offender, knife, and victim during slashing attacks: implications for crime scene reconstruction. Int J Legal Med (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00414-024-03219-x

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Received : 11 June 2023

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DOI : https://doi.org/10.1007/s00414-024-03219-x

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Attacker identified in Sydney mall stabbing that killed 6

Australian police say ‘nothing’ to suggest any ‘motivation, ideology’ in Saturday’s fatal attack in Bondi Junction.

Australian police have identified a 40-year-old man as the perpetrator of a Sydney shopping centre stabbing rampage, which killed six people and left several more in critical condition.

New South Wales Police Assistant Commissioner Anthony Cooke said on Sunday that the man had come from the northeast state of Queensland and was known to law enforcement.

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“There is still to this point nothing that we have… no intelligence that we have gathered that would suggest that this was driven by any particular motivation, ideology or otherwise,” said Cooke.

The 40-year-old man, who was shot dead by a senior policewoman at the scene on Saturday, was named as Joel Cauchi.

A Facebook profile said he came from the town of Toowoomba, near Brisbane, and had attended a local high school and university.

A distinctive grey, red and yellow dragon tattoo on his right arm was used to help identify him.

“We know that the offender in the matter suffered from, suffers from, mental health,” Cooke said.

“Preliminary investigations show this person has acted alone. I am content that there is no continuing threat,” Cooke said.

Five women and one man were killed during Cauchi’s Saturday afternoon rampage, which took place in a bustling shopping centre in Sydney’s Bondi Junction neighbourhood.

Among the injured was a nine-month-old baby who was said to be in a “serious but stable condition in hospital”.

Two of the victims are said to have no family in Australia and attempts are being made to contact the relatives overseas.

Local media reported that hundreds of people were evacuated during the attack on Saturday, with broadcast footage showing police locking down the scene and assisting the injured.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese described the attack as “unspeakable” and “really just beyond comprehension”.

“People going about their Saturday afternoon shopping should be safe, shouldn’t be at risk. But tragically, we saw a loss of life, and people will be grieving for loved ones today,” he said.

“We also know there are many people still in hospital dealing with recovery, and our thoughts and prayers are with them.”

Albanese said he had received messages from United States President Joe Biden, United Kingdom Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon among others.

Such attacks are rare in Australia, which has some of the world’s toughest gun and knife laws.

Images and footage from inside the shopping centre showed a male carrying a bloody knife. Several people inside the mall used bollards to try to stop the suspect, who was wearing shorts and a sports jersey. Videos also showed apparent victims on the ground, with emergency responders administering CPR to one victim.

A young woman who was inside the shopping centre when the attack started said she saw a woman lying on the ground in a shop.

“I didn’t see him [the attacker] properly, I was running, but it was just insane, it was insanity, I wasn’t expecting it.”

Another witness said she and her husband were inside a shop when the commotion started and managed to escape unscathed after locking themselves inside an office room.

“Somebody was injured down there, everybody was looking to see what was going on. Then we saw all these people running towards us and then we heard a shot.”

The six-level shopping centre is located in Sydney’s eastern suburbs and is relatively close to the city’s central business district.

An Ohio man shot a teen in the back with an arrow & stabbed him. He's now going to prison

CARROLLTON ‒ A 20-year-old Massillon man has been sentenced to eight to 12 years in prison for a  Sept. 30 incident  in which he seriously injured a 17-year-old boy with an arrow and knife.

Michael J. Geckler was sentenced Monday after pleading guilty to attempted murder and felonious assault in Carroll County Common Pleas Court.

"It was a fair resolution," Carroll County Prosecutor Steven D. Barnett said.

He said the victim appeared to be in good health when he spoke in court on Monday. The victim, his siblings and his mother spoke at the sentencing hearing.

Geckler shot his friend in the back with a bow and arrow and repeatedly stabbed the youth at a King Road residence. The victim was hospitalized for treatment of his injuries.

"It was tragic," said defense attorney Stephen Kandel. "They were enjoying the day as friends. Michael really doesn't remember what happened."

The incident occurred just south of Lake Mohawk in Harrison Township.

Judge Michael V. Repella II handled the case.

Attempted murder: Charges filed in Carroll County bow-and-arrow shooting, stabbing

Serious injuries: Stark County man arrested after teen shot with arrow in Carroll County

Reach Nancy at 330-580-8382 or [email protected].   On X, formerly known as Twitter: @nmolnarTR .

Sydney knife attacker shot dead after killing 6 in Bondi mall

• Medium Text
• Five of the six killed were women
• Baby, aged nine months, among those hospitalised
• No indication of the man's motive, Albanese says
• Australia has strict gun and knife laws
• 'People around me were terrified,' says witness

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Six people killed in stabbing attack at Sydney's Westfield Bondi Junction, offender shot dead by police officer

Six people have been killed in a knife attack at Westfield Bondi Junction shopping centre in Sydney's east.

The offender, who NSW Police believe to be a 40-year-old man, was shot dead at the scene by a senior officer.

Five of the victims — four women and a man — died at the busy centre on Saturday afternoon and another woman died from her injuries in hospital.

Eight others who were injured, including a nine-month-old child, remain in hospital and some are in a critical condition.

As the attack unfolded, some shoppers ran to find safety in stores while others fled the building and some confronted the armed man.

Warning: Some readers may find the following details of the attack, witness accounts and footage of the incident distressing. 

NSW Police Assistant Commissioner Anthony Cooke said authorities believed the man acted alone and there was no ongoing threat.

Police Commissioner Karen Webb said police believed they knew who the man was but he had not been formally identified.

She said the man was known to police and, while the motive was unclear, early indications suggested the attack was not related to terrorism.

"There's no suggestions anyone was targeted but that could change," she said.

Police said the man was in the shopping centre at about 3pm before leaving and then returning around 20 minutes later with a knife.

A police inspector, who was nearby, was directed towards the man by witnesses, and she shot him dead after the offender confronted her.

"She confronted the offender, who had moved by this stage to level five, as she continued to walk quickly behind him to catch up with him. He turned to face her, raised a knife," Assistant Commissioner Cooke said.

"She discharged a firearm and that person is now deceased."

Commissioner Webb said the officer was "doing well under the circumstances".

"She showed enormous courage and bravery … we just talked [and] she's OK, her family is OK. She's got everything she needs for the time being."

She said the officer would be formally interviewed on Sunday.

A NSW Ambulance spokesperson said the injured people were taken to a number of hospitals across Sydney.

The baby has undergone surgery at Sydney Children's Hospital at Randwick. Another victim was taken to St George Hospital and another to Royal North Shore Hospital.

Three people were taken to St Vincent's Hospital at Darlinghurst. Another two are at Royal Prince Alfred in Camperdown. 

Acting NSW Premier Penny Sharpe said the event was horrific and distressing for the whole state, particularly as it came at a time when people were doing ordinary things and enjoying the first day of the school holiday.  

"I'm personally distressed by this … This is not who we are, this is not the community that we live in," Ms Sharpe said.

"We hold in our hearts the families and the friends and those who have lost loved ones.

"We stand with those who are waiting to hear from those that have been injured."

She thanked the innocent bystanders who risked their lives to help others, particularly the police officer who stopped the offender.

Premier Chris Minns is in Tokyo on leave, but Ms Sharpe said he had been briefed and was part of a crisis cabinet meeting which would be looking at providing support to those affected.

"This is going to be difficult, it's going to be hard for days to come," she said.

"This is really just the beginning of the pain and the grief for so many people."

Federal police join response to attack

The shopping centre, where a crime scene has been established, will remain closed on Sunday.

A large number of emergency vehicles and personnel arrived at the scene, one of the biggest shopping precincts in the city, after receiving triple-0 calls.

Armed police could also be seen conducting a search of the rooftop car park.

Commissioner Reece Kershaw said the Australian Federal Police (AFP) would support NSW Police in the investigation of the attack.

"The AFP has deployed AFP members to the crime scene and we've offered our full specialist capabilities such as digital forensics," he said.

"It is too early to determine a motive and it would be unhelpful to speculate."

Commissioner Kershaw said he had also spoken to the NSW police commissioner and the director-general of ASIO.

"I want to thank NSW Police, emergency services and first responders and the community for their bravery in the face of this shocking incident," he said.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said the attack was "beyond words or understanding".

"Australians will be shocked this evening," Mr Albanese said.

"This was a horrific act of violence, indiscriminately targeted at innocent people going about an ordinary Saturday doing their shopping."

The prime minister praised the bravery of the police officer who confronted and shot the offender.

"She is certainly a hero," he said.

Witnesses describe 'horrific experience'

As the attack unfolded and police responded, shoppers were evacuated from the centre.

ABC sound engineer Roi Huberman said he was inside a shop when he heard gunshots.

"And suddenly we heard a shot or maybe two shots and we didn't know what to do," he said.

"Then the very capable person in the store took us to the back where it can be locked.

"She then locked the store and then she let us through the back and now we are out."

Shopper Adriana was with her two daughters at a beauty store when they heard gunshots.

"All of a sudden the front doors were closed, and in a matter of seconds we heard some gunshots and got sent to the storage room at the back of the shop. There were about 30 or 40 people there," she said.

"Everyone was screaming, crying, trying to call their relatives. It was a horrific experience.

"There was a lot of screaming and people just screaming, 'Get out, get out, get out of the shopping centre.'"

Nearby salon owner Leanne Devine said she was alerted to the attack by "hundreds and hundreds of people" running out of the centre.

"It was absolutely horrific," she said.

"We're in shock mode. We're traumatised."

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‘Run, run, run': Chaos at a Sydney mall as 6 people stabbed to death, and the suspect fatally shot

Multiple people and a suspect were killed in a Sydney shopping center stabbing attack on Saturday that left people, including a small child, injured, police said.

Media reports say multiple people have been stabbed and that the police shot a person at a Sydney shopping center. ABC TV in Australia reported Saturday that police evacuated shoppers at Westfield Shopping Centre in Bondi Junction.

Media reports on Saturday say multiple people have been stabbed and one person shot by police at a Sydney shopping center. Video from witnesses at the scene showed many police mobilising around the shopping center.

A man stabbed multiple people to death at a busy Sydney shopping center Saturday before he was fatally shot, police said. Eight people, including a 9-month-old, were injured in the attack. (AP video by Albert Lecoanet and Rick Rycroft)

Speaking in a news conference in Canberra, Anthony Albanese said the attack, which led to the deaths of six people and a suspect in the stabbings, was “a horrific act of violence” which “indiscriminately targeted innocent people going about an ordinary Saturday, doing their shopping”. A single person began stabbing people in the Westfield Shopping Centre in Bondi Junction, a suburb of Sydney, attacking nine people, before a police inspector shot him.

Police in Sydney say a man stabbed multiple people to death at a busy shopping centre before he was fatally shot. Police say the 40-year-old was stopped in the knifing attack at the Westfield Shopping Centre in Bondi Junction when a police inspector shot him after he turned and raised a knife.

People are led out from the Westfield Shopping Centre where multiple people were stabbed in Sydney, Saturday, April 13, 2024. A man stabbed six people to death at the busy Sydney shopping center Saturday before he was fatally shot, police said. (AP Photo/Rick Rycroft)

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People are led out from the Westfield Shopping Centre where multiple people were stabbed in Sydney, Saturday, April 13, 2024. A man stabbed six people to death at the busy Sydney shopping center Saturday before he was fatally shot, police said. Multiple people, including a small child, were also injured in the attack. (AP Photo/Rick Rycroft)

People are led out of the Westfield Shopping Centre where multiple people were stabbed in Sydney, Saturday, April 13, 2024. A man stabbed six people to death at the busy Sydney shopping center Saturday before he was fatally shot, police said. Multiple people, including a small child, were also injured in the attack. (AP Photo/Rick Rycroft)

Police officers stand guard outside Westfield Shopping Centre where multiple people were stabbed in Sydney, Saturday, April 13, 2024. A man stabbed six people to death at the busy Sydney shopping center Saturday before he was fatally shot, police said. (AP Photo/Rick Rycroft)

Emergency officers stand by with stretchers outside Westfield Shopping Centre where multiple people were stabbed in Sydney, Saturday, April 13, 2024. The Sydney Morning Herald reported that four people died in the stabbing. Police couldn’t be immediately reached to confirm the report. The newspaper said one person was also shot, but it wasn’t clear if the person had died.(AP Photo/Rick Rycroft)

Investigators and others are seen inside Westfield Shopping Centre, where multiple people were stabbed in Sydney, Saturday, April 13, 2024. The Sydney Morning Herald reported that four people died in the stabbing. Police couldn’t be immediately reached to confirm the report. The newspaper said one person was also shot, but it wasn’t clear if the person had died.(AP Photo/Rick Rycroft)

A crowd gathers outside Westfield Shopping Centre in Sydney, Saturday, April 13, 2024. Media reports say multiple people have been stabbed and that the police shot a person at the Sydney shopping center. (AP Photo/Rick Rycroft)

In this image made from video provided by AUBC, first responders gather near the scene of a stabbing at a shopping center in Sydney, Australia, Saturday, April 13, 2024. Media reports say multiple people have been stabbed and that the police shot at least one person at a Sydney shopping center. (AUBC via AP)

Emergency services are seen at Bondi Junction after multiple people were stabbed inside the Westfield Bondi Junction shopping centre in Sydney, Australia, Saturday, April 13, 2024. Multiple people were stabbed Saturday, and police shot someone, at a busy Sydney shopping center, media reports said. (Steven Saphore/AAP Image via AP)

Emergency services are seen at Bondi Junction after multiple people were stabbed at the Westfield Bondi Junction shopping centre in Sydney, Australia, Saturday, April 13, 2024. Multiple people were stabbed Saturday, and police shot someone, at a busy Sydney shopping center, media reports said. (Steven Saphore/AAP Image via AP)

SYDNEY (AP) — A man stabbed six people to death at a busy Sydney shopping center Saturday before he was fatally shot, police said, with hundreds fleeing the chaotic scene, many weeping as they carried their children. Eight people, including a 9-month-old, were injured.

New South Wales police said they believed a 40-year-old man was responsible for the Saturday afternoon attack at the Westfield Shopping Centre in Bondi Junction, in the city’s eastern suburbs and not far from the world-famous Bondi Beach. They said they were not able to name him until a formal identification had taken place but that they weren’t treating the attack as terrorism-related.

The man was shot dead by a police inspector after he turned and raised a knife, New South Wales Assistant Police Commissioner Anthony Cooke told reporters.

“This all happened very, very quickly — the officer that was in the vicinity attended on her own, was guided to the location of the offender by people who were in the center,” he said. “She took the actions that she did saving a range of people’s lives.”

The attack at the shopping center, one of the country’s busiest and which was a hub of activity on a particularly warm fall afternoon, began around 3:10 p.m. and police were swiftly called.

“They just said run, run, run — someone’s been stabbed,” one witness told ABC TV in Australia. ”(The attacker) was walking really calmly like he was having an ice cream in a park. And then he went up the escalators ... and probably within about a minute we heard three gunshots.”

Six of the victims — five women and a man — and the suspect died. The officer conducted CPR on the attacker until the arrival of paramedics, who also worked on the man.

New South Wales Police Commissioner Karen Webb said the eight injured people were being treated at hospitals. The baby was in surgery, but it was too early to know the condition, she said.

“We are confident that there is no ongoing risk, and we are dealing with one person who is now deceased,” Webb said in a later briefing. “It’s not a terrorism incident.”

Witnesses were shocked at the rare outburst of violence. Australia enacted strict gun laws after a man killed 35 and wounded another 23 in 1996, in Tasmania.

People are led out from the Westfield Shopping Centre where multiple people were stabbed in Sydney, Saturday, April 13, 2024. (AP Photo/Rick Rycroft)

People walk out of Westfield Shopping Centre, where multiple people were stabbed in Sydney, Saturday, April 13, 2024. (AP Photo/Rick Rycroft)

“I saw all the people running and I didn’t know what was happening,” said Ayush Singh. “I thought it was some people playing a prank or something and after some time I saw a guy with a knife running from the footpath to the cafe where I work.”

He said police arrived quickly and told everyone to stay put.

Singh said he saw the man running just meters (yards) away as he wielded a knife. “I didn’t hear him say anything,” he added. “Just a random guy stabbing people. Mad guy.”

Video footage shared online appears to show a man confronting the attacker on an escalator in the shopping center by holding what appeared to be a post towards him.

Roi Huberman, a sound engineer at ABC TV in Australia, told the network that he sheltered in a store during the incident.

“And suddenly we heard a shot or maybe two shots and we didn’t know what to do,” he said. “Then the very capable person in the store took us to the back where it can be locked. She then locked the store and then she then let us through the back and now we are out.”

Police officers stand guard outside Westfield Shopping Centre where multiple people were stabbed in Sydney, Saturday, April 13, 2024. (AP Photo/Rick Rycroft)

As the attack unfolded, panicked individuals streamed out of the shopping center, many with children in their arms. Paramedics treated injured people at the scene. The shopping center and the surrounding area remains in lockdown as police piece together what went on.

“This was a horrific act of violence indiscriminately targeted at innocent people going about a normal Saturday, doing their shopping,” said Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

“Today Bondi Junction was the scene of horrific violence, but it was also witness to the humanity and the heroism of our fellow Australians, our brave police, our first responders, and of course our everyday people who could never have imagined that they would face such a moment,” he added.

The most senior members of Britain’s royal family, who are also royals in Australia, expressed their shock and sadness over the stabbings.

King Charles III said he and his wife Queen Camilla were “utterly shocked and horrified” by the “senseless attack” in Sydney and that their “hearts go out to the families and loved ones of those who have been so brutally killed.” The king’s eldest son Prince William and his wife Catherine, Princess of Wales, said they too were “shocked and saddened” and that their thoughts are with those affected and the “heroic emergency responders who risked their own lives to save others.”

Pope Francis also expressed his sadness at the “senseless tragedy” in Sydney, offering his “spiritual closeness” to all those affected and prayers for the dead and injured. The message was contained in a telegram to Sydney Archbishop Anthony Fisher and sent by Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s secretary of state.

Associated Press writers Pan Pylas in London and Colleen Barry in Milan contributed to this report.