null and alternative hypothesis multiple regression

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Understanding the Null Hypothesis for Linear Regression

Linear regression is a technique we can use to understand the relationship between one or more predictor variables and a response variable .

If we only have one predictor variable and one response variable, we can use simple linear regression , which uses the following formula to estimate the relationship between the variables:

ŷ = β 0 + β 1 x

• ŷ: The estimated response value.
• β 0 : The average value of y when x is zero.
• β 1 : The average change in y associated with a one unit increase in x.
• x: The value of the predictor variable.

Simple linear regression uses the following null and alternative hypotheses:

• H 0 : β 1 = 0
• H A : β 1 ≠ 0

The null hypothesis states that the coefficient β 1 is equal to zero. In other words, there is no statistically significant relationship between the predictor variable, x, and the response variable, y.

The alternative hypothesis states that β 1 is not equal to zero. In other words, there is a statistically significant relationship between x and y.

If we have multiple predictor variables and one response variable, we can use multiple linear regression , which uses the following formula to estimate the relationship between the variables:

ŷ = β 0 + β 1 x 1 + β 2 x 2 + … + β k x k

• β 0 : The average value of y when all predictor variables are equal to zero.
• β i : The average change in y associated with a one unit increase in x i .
• x i : The value of the predictor variable x i .

Multiple linear regression uses the following null and alternative hypotheses:

• H 0 : β 1 = β 2 = … = β k = 0
• H A : β 1 = β 2 = … = β k ≠ 0

The null hypothesis states that all coefficients in the model are equal to zero. In other words, none of the predictor variables have a statistically significant relationship with the response variable, y.

The alternative hypothesis states that not every coefficient is simultaneously equal to zero.

The following examples show how to decide to reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis in both simple linear regression and multiple linear regression models.

Example 1: Simple Linear Regression

Suppose a professor would like to use the number of hours studied to predict the exam score that students will receive in his class. He collects data for 20 students and fits a simple linear regression model.

The following screenshot shows the output of the regression model:

The fitted simple linear regression model is:

Exam Score = 67.1617 + 5.2503*(hours studied)

To determine if there is a statistically significant relationship between hours studied and exam score, we need to analyze the overall F value of the model and the corresponding p-value:

• Overall F-Value:  47.9952
• P-value:  0.000

Since this p-value is less than .05, we can reject the null hypothesis. In other words, there is a statistically significant relationship between hours studied and exam score received.

Example 2: Multiple Linear Regression

Suppose a professor would like to use the number of hours studied and the number of prep exams taken to predict the exam score that students will receive in his class. He collects data for 20 students and fits a multiple linear regression model.

The fitted multiple linear regression model is:

Exam Score = 67.67 + 5.56*(hours studied) – 0.60*(prep exams taken)

To determine if there is a jointly statistically significant relationship between the two predictor variables and the response variable, we need to analyze the overall F value of the model and the corresponding p-value:

• Overall F-Value:  23.46
• P-value:  0.00

Since this p-value is less than .05, we can reject the null hypothesis. In other words, hours studied and prep exams taken have a jointly statistically significant relationship with exam score.

Note: Although the p-value for prep exams taken (p = 0.52) is not significant, prep exams combined with hours studied has a significant relationship with exam score.

Additional Resources

Understanding the F-Test of Overall Significance in Regression How to Read and Interpret a Regression Table How to Report Regression Results How to Perform Simple Linear Regression in Excel How to Perform Multiple Linear Regression in Excel

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• Null and Alternative Hypotheses | Definitions & Examples

Null & Alternative Hypotheses | Definitions, Templates & Examples

Published on May 6, 2022 by Shaun Turney . Revised on June 22, 2023.

The null and alternative hypotheses are two competing claims that researchers weigh evidence for and against using a statistical test :

• Null hypothesis ( H 0 ): There’s no effect in the population .
• Alternative hypothesis ( H a or H 1 ) : There’s an effect in the population.

Table of contents

Answering your research question with hypotheses, what is a null hypothesis, what is an alternative hypothesis, similarities and differences between null and alternative hypotheses, how to write null and alternative hypotheses, other interesting articles, frequently asked questions.

The null and alternative hypotheses offer competing answers to your research question . When the research question asks “Does the independent variable affect the dependent variable?”:

• The null hypothesis ( H 0 ) answers “No, there’s no effect in the population.”
• The alternative hypothesis ( H a ) answers “Yes, there is an effect in the population.”

The null and alternative are always claims about the population. That’s because the goal of hypothesis testing is to make inferences about a population based on a sample . Often, we infer whether there’s an effect in the population by looking at differences between groups or relationships between variables in the sample. It’s critical for your research to write strong hypotheses .

You can use a statistical test to decide whether the evidence favors the null or alternative hypothesis. Each type of statistical test comes with a specific way of phrasing the null and alternative hypothesis. However, the hypotheses can also be phrased in a general way that applies to any test.

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The null hypothesis is the claim that there’s no effect in the population.

If the sample provides enough evidence against the claim that there’s no effect in the population ( p ≤ α), then we can reject the null hypothesis . Otherwise, we fail to reject the null hypothesis.

Although “fail to reject” may sound awkward, it’s the only wording that statisticians accept . Be careful not to say you “prove” or “accept” the null hypothesis.

Null hypotheses often include phrases such as “no effect,” “no difference,” or “no relationship.” When written in mathematical terms, they always include an equality (usually =, but sometimes ≥ or ≤).

You can never know with complete certainty whether there is an effect in the population. Some percentage of the time, your inference about the population will be incorrect. When you incorrectly reject the null hypothesis, it’s called a type I error . When you incorrectly fail to reject it, it’s a type II error.

Examples of null hypotheses

The table below gives examples of research questions and null hypotheses. There’s always more than one way to answer a research question, but these null hypotheses can help you get started.

*Note that some researchers prefer to always write the null hypothesis in terms of “no effect” and “=”. It would be fine to say that daily meditation has no effect on the incidence of depression and p 1 = p 2 .

The alternative hypothesis ( H a ) is the other answer to your research question . It claims that there’s an effect in the population.

Often, your alternative hypothesis is the same as your research hypothesis. In other words, it’s the claim that you expect or hope will be true.

The alternative hypothesis is the complement to the null hypothesis. Null and alternative hypotheses are exhaustive, meaning that together they cover every possible outcome. They are also mutually exclusive, meaning that only one can be true at a time.

Alternative hypotheses often include phrases such as “an effect,” “a difference,” or “a relationship.” When alternative hypotheses are written in mathematical terms, they always include an inequality (usually ≠, but sometimes < or >). As with null hypotheses, there are many acceptable ways to phrase an alternative hypothesis.

Examples of alternative hypotheses

The table below gives examples of research questions and alternative hypotheses to help you get started with formulating your own.

Null and alternative hypotheses are similar in some ways:

• They’re both answers to the research question.
• They both make claims about the population.
• They’re both evaluated by statistical tests.

However, there are important differences between the two types of hypotheses, summarized in the following table.

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To help you write your hypotheses, you can use the template sentences below. If you know which statistical test you’re going to use, you can use the test-specific template sentences. Otherwise, you can use the general template sentences.

General template sentences

The only thing you need to know to use these general template sentences are your dependent and independent variables. To write your research question, null hypothesis, and alternative hypothesis, fill in the following sentences with your variables:

Does independent variable affect dependent variable ?

• Null hypothesis ( H 0 ): Independent variable does not affect dependent variable.
• Alternative hypothesis ( H a ): Independent variable affects dependent variable.

Test-specific template sentences

Once you know the statistical test you’ll be using, you can write your hypotheses in a more precise and mathematical way specific to the test you chose. The table below provides template sentences for common statistical tests.

Note: The template sentences above assume that you’re performing one-tailed tests . One-tailed tests are appropriate for most studies.

If you want to know more about statistics , methodology , or research bias , make sure to check out some of our other articles with explanations and examples.

• Normal distribution
• Descriptive statistics
• Measures of central tendency
• Correlation coefficient

Methodology

• Cluster sampling
• Stratified sampling
• Types of interviews
• Cohort study
• Thematic analysis

Research bias

• Implicit bias
• Cognitive bias
• Survivorship bias
• Availability heuristic
• Nonresponse bias
• Regression to the mean

Hypothesis testing is a formal procedure for investigating our ideas about the world using statistics. It is used by scientists to test specific predictions, called hypotheses , by calculating how likely it is that a pattern or relationship between variables could have arisen by chance.

Null and alternative hypotheses are used in statistical hypothesis testing . The null hypothesis of a test always predicts no effect or no relationship between variables, while the alternative hypothesis states your research prediction of an effect or relationship.

The null hypothesis is often abbreviated as H 0 . When the null hypothesis is written using mathematical symbols, it always includes an equality symbol (usually =, but sometimes ≥ or ≤).

The alternative hypothesis is often abbreviated as H a or H 1 . When the alternative hypothesis is written using mathematical symbols, it always includes an inequality symbol (usually ≠, but sometimes < or >).

A research hypothesis is your proposed answer to your research question. The research hypothesis usually includes an explanation (“ x affects y because …”).

A statistical hypothesis, on the other hand, is a mathematical statement about a population parameter. Statistical hypotheses always come in pairs: the null and alternative hypotheses . In a well-designed study , the statistical hypotheses correspond logically to the research hypothesis.

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Lesson 5: Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) Model & Evaluation

Overview of this lesson.

In this lesson, we make our first (and last?!) major jump in the course. We move from the simple linear regression model with one predictor to the multiple linear regression model with two or more predictors. That is, we use the adjective "simple" to denote that our model has only predictor, and we use the adjective "multiple" to indicate that our model has at least two predictors.

In the multiple regression setting, because of the potentially large number of predictors, it is more efficient to use matrices to define the regression model and the subsequent analyses. This lesson considers some of the more important multiple regression formulas in matrix form. If you're unsure about any of this, it may be a good time to take a look at this Matrix Algebra Review .

The good news is that everything you learned about the simple linear regression model extends — with at most minor modification — to the multiple linear regression model. Think about it — you don't have to forget all of that good stuff you learned! In particular:

• The models have similar "LINE" assumptions. The only real difference is that whereas in simple linear regression we think of the distribution of errors at a fixed value of the single predictor, with multiple linear regression we have to think of the distribution of errors at a fixed set of values for all the predictors. All of the model checking procedures we learned earlier are useful in the multiple linear regression framework, although the process becomes more involved since we now have multiple predictors. We'll explore this issue further in Lesson 6.
• The use and interpretation of r 2 (which we'll denote R 2 in the context of multiple linear regression) remains the same. However, with multiple linear regression we can also make use of an "adjusted" R 2 value, which is useful for model building purposes. We'll explore this measure further in Lesson 11.
• With a minor generalization of the degrees of freedom, we use t -tests and t -intervals for the regression slope coefficients to assess whether a predictor is significantly linearly related to the response, after controlling for the effects of all the opther predictors in the model.
• With a minor generalization of the degrees of freedom, we use confidence intervals for estimating the mean response and prediction intervals for predicting an individual response. We'll explore these further in Lesson 6.

For the simple linear regression model, there is only one slope parameter about which one can perform hypothesis tests. For the multiple linear regression model, there are three different hypothesis tests for slopes that one could conduct. They are:

• a hypothesis test for testing that one slope parameter is 0
• a hypothesis test for testing that all of the slope parameters are 0
• a hypothesis test for testing that a subset — more than one, but not all — of the slope parameters are 0

In this lesson, we also learn how to perform each of the above three hypothesis tests.

• 5.1 - Example on IQ and Physical Characteristics
• 5.2 - Example on Underground Air Quality
• 5.3 - The Multiple Linear Regression Model
• 5.4 - A Matrix Formulation of the Multiple Regression Model
• 5.5 - Three Types of MLR Parameter Tests
• 5.6 - The General Linear F-Test
• 5.7 - MLR Parameter Tests
• 5.8 - Partial R-squared
• 5.9 - Further MLR Examples

Start Here!

• Welcome to STAT 462!
• Search Course Materials
• Lesson 1: Statistical Inference Foundations
• Lesson 2: Simple Linear Regression (SLR) Model
• Lesson 3: SLR Evaluation
• Lesson 4: SLR Assumptions, Estimation & Prediction
• 5.9- Further MLR Examples
• Lesson 6: MLR Assumptions, Estimation & Prediction
• Lesson 7: Transformations & Interactions
• Lesson 8: Categorical Predictors
• Lesson 9: Influential Points
• Lesson 10: Regression Pitfalls
• Lesson 11: Model Building
• Lesson 12: Logistic, Poisson & Nonlinear Regression
• Website for Applied Regression Modeling, 2nd edition
• Notation Used in this Course
• R Software Help
• Minitab Software Help

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9.1 Null and Alternative Hypotheses

The actual test begins by considering two hypotheses . They are called the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis . These hypotheses contain opposing viewpoints.

H 0 , the — null hypothesis: a statement of no difference between sample means or proportions or no difference between a sample mean or proportion and a population mean or proportion. In other words, the difference equals 0.

H a —, the alternative hypothesis: a claim about the population that is contradictory to H 0 and what we conclude when we reject H 0 .

Since the null and alternative hypotheses are contradictory, you must examine evidence to decide if you have enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis or not. The evidence is in the form of sample data.

After you have determined which hypothesis the sample supports, you make a decision. There are two options for a decision. They are reject H 0 if the sample information favors the alternative hypothesis or do not reject H 0 or decline to reject H 0 if the sample information is insufficient to reject the null hypothesis.

Mathematical Symbols Used in H 0 and H a :

H 0 always has a symbol with an equal in it. H a never has a symbol with an equal in it. The choice of symbol depends on the wording of the hypothesis test. However, be aware that many researchers use = in the null hypothesis, even with > or < as the symbol in the alternative hypothesis. This practice is acceptable because we only make the decision to reject or not reject the null hypothesis.

Example 9.1

H 0 : No more than 30 percent of the registered voters in Santa Clara County voted in the primary election. p ≤ 30 H a : More than 30 percent of the registered voters in Santa Clara County voted in the primary election. p > 30

A medical trial is conducted to test whether or not a new medicine reduces cholesterol by 25 percent. State the null and alternative hypotheses.

Example 9.2

We want to test whether the mean GPA of students in American colleges is different from 2.0 (out of 4.0). The null and alternative hypotheses are the following: H 0 : μ = 2.0 H a : μ ≠ 2.0

We want to test whether the mean height of eighth graders is 66 inches. State the null and alternative hypotheses. Fill in the correct symbol (=, ≠, ≥, <, ≤, >) for the null and alternative hypotheses.

• H 0 : μ __ 66
• H a : μ __ 66

Example 9.3

We want to test if college students take fewer than five years to graduate from college, on the average. The null and alternative hypotheses are the following: H 0 : μ ≥ 5 H a : μ < 5

We want to test if it takes fewer than 45 minutes to teach a lesson plan. State the null and alternative hypotheses. Fill in the correct symbol ( =, ≠, ≥, <, ≤, >) for the null and alternative hypotheses.

• H 0 : μ __ 45
• H a : μ __ 45

Example 9.4

An article on school standards stated that about half of all students in France, Germany, and Israel take advanced placement exams and a third of the students pass. The same article stated that 6.6 percent of U.S. students take advanced placement exams and 4.4 percent pass. Test if the percentage of U.S. students who take advanced placement exams is more than 6.6 percent. State the null and alternative hypotheses. H 0 : p ≤ 0.066 H a : p > 0.066

On a state driver’s test, about 40 percent pass the test on the first try. We want to test if more than 40 percent pass on the first try. Fill in the correct symbol (=, ≠, ≥, <, ≤, >) for the null and alternative hypotheses.

• H 0 : p __ 0.40
• H a : p __ 0.40

Collaborative Exercise

Bring to class a newspaper, some news magazines, and some internet articles. In groups, find articles from which your group can write null and alternative hypotheses. Discuss your hypotheses with the rest of the class.

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Correlation and Regression with R

•   1  
• |   2  
• |   3  
• |   4  
• |   5  
• |   6  
• |   7  
• Contributing Authors:
• Learning Objectives
• The Dataset
• Correlation
• Pearson Correlation
• Spearman's rank correlation
• Some Notes on Correlation
• Simple Linear Regression
• Introduction
• Simple Linear Regression Model Fitting
• Other Functions for Fitted Linear Model Objects

Multiple Linear Regression

Model specification and output, model with categorical variables or factors.

• Regression Diagnostics
• Model Assumptions
• Diagnostic Plots
• More Diagnostics

Intro to R Contents

Common R Commands

In reality, most regression analyses use more than a single predictor. Specification of a multiple regression analysis is done by setting up a model formula with plus (+) between the predictors:

> lm2<-lm(pctfat.brozek~age+fatfreeweight+neck,data=fatdata)

which corresponds to the following multiple linear regression model:

pctfat.brozek = β 0 + β 1 *age + β 2 *fatfreeweight + β 3 *neck + ε

This tests the following hypotheses:

• H 0 : There is no linear association between pctfat.brozek and age, fatfreeweight and neck.
• H a : Here is a linear association between pctfat.brozek and age, fatfreeweight and neck.

> summary(lm2)

lm(formula = pctfat.brozek ~ age + fatfreeweight + neck, data = fatdata)

         Min        1Q       Median        3Q        Max

-16.67871  -3.62536   0.07768   3.65100  16.99197

Coefficients:

               Estimate    Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   

(Intercept)    -53.01330   5.99614   -8.841   < 2e-16 ***

age            0.03832    0.03298    1.162    0.246   

fatfreeweight  -0.23200    0.03086  -7.518    1.02e-12 ***

neck            2.72617    0.22627  12.049   < 2e-16 ***

Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

Residual standard error: 5.901 on 248 degrees of freedom

Multiple R-squared: 0.4273,     Adjusted R-squared: 0.4203

F-statistic: 61.67 on 3 and 248 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16

Global Null Hypothesis

• When testing the null hypothesis that there is no linear association between Brozek percent fat, age, fatfreeweight, and neck, we reject the null hypothesis (F 3,248 = 61.67, p-value < 2.2e-16). Age, fatfreeweight and neck explain 42.73% of the variability in Brozek percent fat.

Main Effects Hypothesis

• When testing the null hypothesis that there is no linear association between Brozek percent fat and age after adjusting for fatfreeweight and neck, we fail to reject the null hypothesis (t = 1.162, df = 248, p-value = 0.246).  For a one-unit change in age, on average, the Brozek percent fat increases by 0.03, after adjusting for fatfreeweight and neck.
• When testing the null hypothesis that there is no linear association between Brozek percent fat and fatfreeweight after adjusting for age and neck, we reject the null hypothesis (t = -7.518, df = 248, p-value =1.02e-12).  For a one-unit increase in fatfreeweight, Brozek percent fat decreases by 0.23 units after adjusting for age and neck.
• When testing the null hypothesis that there is no linear association between Brozek percent fat and neck after adjusting for fatfreeweight and age, we reject the null hypothesis (t = 12.049, df = 248, p-value < 2e-16).  For a one-unit increase in neck there is a 2.73 increase in Brozek percent fat, after adjusting for age and fatfreeweight.

Sometimes, we may be also interested in using categorical variables as predictors. According to the information posted in the website of National Heart Lung and Blood Institute ( http://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/health/public/heart/obesity/lose_wt/risk.htm ), individuals with body mass index (BMI) greater than or equal to 25 are classified as overweight or obesity. In our dataset, the variable adiposity is equivalent to BMI.

 With the variable bmi you generated from the previous exercise, we go ahead to model our data.

> lm3 <- lm(pctfat.brozek ~ age + fatfreeweight + neck + factor(bmi), data = fatdata)

> summary(lm3)

lm(formula = pctfat.brozek ~ age + fatfreeweight + neck + factor(bmi),

    data = fatdata)

     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max

-13.4222  -3.0969  -0.2637   2.7280  13.3875

                                  Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)   

(Intercept)                      -21.31224    6.32852  -3.368 0.000879 ***

age                                0.01698    0.02887   0.588 0.556890   

fatfreeweight                     -0.23488    0.02691  -8.727 3.97e-16 ***

neck                               1.83080    0.22152   8.265 8.63e-15 ***

factor(bmi)overweight or obesity   7.31761    0.82282   8.893  < 2e-16 ***

Residual standard error: 5.146 on 247 degrees of freedom

Multiple R-squared:  0.5662,     Adjusted R-squared:  0.5591

F-statistic: 80.59 on 4 and 247 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16

Note that although factor bmi has two levels, the result only shows one level: "overweight or obesity", which is called the "treatment effect" . In other words, the level "normal or underweight" is considered as baseline or reference group and the estimate of factor(bmi) overweight or obesity 7.3176 is the effect difference of these two levels on percent body fat.

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Multiple Regression

Now we're going to look at the rest of the data that we collected about the weight lifters. We will still have one response (y) variable, clean, but we will have several predictor (x) variables, age, body, and snatch. We're not going to use total because it's just the sum of snatch and clean.

The heaviest weights (in kg) that men who weigh more than 105 kg were able to lift are given in the table.

Data Dictionary

Regression model.

If there are k predictor variables, then the regression equation model is y = β 0 + β 1 x 1 + β 2 x 2 + ... + β k x k + ε.

The x 1 , x 2 , ..., x k represent the k predictor variables. Those parameters are the same as before, β 0 is the y-intercept or constant, β 1 is the coefficient on the first predictor variable, β 2 is the coefficient on the second predictor variable, and so on. ε is the error term or the residual that can't be explained by the model. Those parameters are estimated by b 0 , b 1 , b 2 , ..., b k .

This gives us a regression equation used for prediction of y = b 0 + b 1 x 1 + b 2 x 2 + ...+ b k x k .

Basically, everything we did with simple linear regression will just be extended to involve k predictor variables instead of just one.

Regression Analysis Explained

Round 1: all predictor variables included.

Minitab was used to perform the regression analysis. This is not really something you want to try by hand.

Response Variable: clean Predictor Variables: age, body, snatch

Regression Equation

There's the regression equation. You can use it for estimation purposes, but you really should look further down the page to see if the equation is a good predictor or not.

Table of Coefficients

Notice how the coefficients column (labeled "Coef") are again the coefficients that you find in the regression equation. The constant 32.88 is b 0 , the coefficient on age is b 1 = 1.0257, and so on.

Also notice that we have four test statistics and four p-values. That means that there were four hypothesis tests going on and four null hypotheses. The null hypothesis in each case is that the population parameter for that particular coefficient (or constant) is zero. If the coefficient is zero, then that variable drops out of the model and it doesn't contribute significantly to the model.

Here's a summary of the table of coefficients. We're making our decision at an α = 0.05 level of significance, so if the p-value < 0.05, we'll reject the null hypothesis and retain it otherwise.

A note about the T test statistics. They are once again the coefficient divided by the standard error of the coefficient, but this time that don't have n-2 degrees of freedom. If you remember what we wrote during simple linear regression, the df for each of these tests was actually the sample size minus the number of parameters being estimated. Well, in this case, we have four (4) parameters we're estimating, the constant and the three coefficients. Since our sample size was n = 14, our df = 14 - 4 = 10 for these tests.

A further note - don't just blindly get rid of every variable that doesn't appear to contribute to the model. This will be explained later, but there are correlations between variables that don't show themselves here.

Analysis of Variance

This is why we're really here, but if we take what we learned in simple linear regression and apply it, it's not that difficult to understand.

Notice how the total line is exactly the same as it was for the simple linear regression? That's because the response variable, clean, is still the same. All that has happened is that the amount of variation due to each source has changed.

Here's the table we saw with simple linear regression with the comments specific to simple linear regression removed. The same instructions work here with multiple regression.

The df(Regression) is one less than the number of parameters being estimated. There are k predictor variables and so there are k parameters for the coefficients on those variables. There is always one additional parameter for the constant so there are k+1 parameters. But the df is one less than the number of parameters, so there are k+1 - 1 = k degrees of freedom. That is, the df(Regression) = # of predictor variables.

The df(Residual) is the sample size minus the number of parameters being estimated, so it becomes df(Residual) = n - (k+1) or df(Residual) = n - k - 1. It's often easier just to use subtraction once you know the total and the regression degrees of freedom.

The df(Total) is still one less than the sample size as it was before. df(Total) = n - 1.

The table still works like all ANOVA tables. A variance is a variation divided by degrees of freedom, that is MS = SS / df. The F test statistic is the ratio of two sample variances with the denominator always being the error variance. So F = MS(Regression) / MS(Residual).

Even the hypothesis test here is an extension of simple linear regression. There, the null hypothesis was H 0 : β 1 = 0 versus the alternative hypothesis H 1 : β 1 ≠ 0.

In multiple regression, the hypotheses read like this:

H 0 : β 1 = β 2 = ... = β k = 0 H 1 : At least one β is not zero

The null hypothesis claims that there is no significant correlation at all. That is, all of the coefficients are zero and none of the variables belong in the model.

The alternative hypothesis is not that every variable belongs in the model but that at least one of the variables belongs in the model. If you remember back to probability, the complement of "none" is "at least one" and that's what we're seeing here.

In this case, because our p-value is 0.000, we would reject that there is no correlation at all and say that we do have a good model for prediction.

Summary Line

Recall that all the values on the summary line (plus some other useful ones) can be computed from the ANOVA table.

First, the MS(Total) is not given in the table, but we need it for other things. MS(Total) = SS(Total) / df(Total), it is not simply the sum of the other two MS values. MS(Total) = 4145.1 / 13 = 318.85. This is the value of the sample variance for the response variable clean. That is, s 2 = 318.85 and the sample standard deviation would be the square root of 318.85 or s = 17.86.

The value labeled S = 7.66222 is actually s e , the standard error of the estimate, and is the square root of the error variance, MS(Residual). The square root of 58.7 is 7.66159, but the difference is due to rounding errors.

The R-Sq is the multiple R 2 and is R 2 = ( SS(Total) - SS(Residual) ) / SS(Total).

R 2 = ( 4145.1 - 587.1 ) / 4145.1 = 0.858 = 85.8%

The R-Sq(adj) is the adjuster R 2 and is Adj-R 2 = ( MS(Total) - MS(Residual) ) / MS(Total).

Adj-R 2 = ( 318.85 - 58.7 ) / 318.85 = 0.816 = 81.6%

R-Squared vs Adjusted R-Squared

There is a problem with the R 2 for multiple regression. Yes, it is still the percent of the total variation that can be explained by the regression equation, but the largest value of R 2 will always occur when all of the predictor variables are included, even if those predictor variables don't significantly contribute to the model. R 2 will only go down (or stay the same) as variables are removed, but never increase.

The Adjusted-R 2 uses the variances instead of the variations. That means that it takes into consideration the sample size and the number of predictor variables. The value of the adjusted-R 2 can actually increase with fewer variables or smaller sample sizes. You should always look at the adjusted-R 2 when comparing models with different sample sizes or number of predictor variables, not the R 2 . If you have a tie for two models that have the same adjusted-R 2 , then take the one with the fewer variables as it's a simpler model.

Regression Analysis Repeated

Round 2: remove a predictor variable.

Do you remember earlier in this document when it appeared that neither age (p-value = 0.059) or body weight (p-value = 0.530) belonged in the model? Well now it's time to remove some variables.

We don't want to remove all the variables at once, though, because there might be some correlation between the predictor variables, so we'll pick the one that contributes the least to the model. This is the one with the largest p-value, so we'll get rid of body weight first.

Here are the results from Minitab.

Response Variable: clean Predictor Variables: age, snatch

Notice there are now 2 regression df in the ANOVA because we have two predictor variables. Also notice that the p-value on age is only marginally above the significance level so we may want to use it.

But the thing I want to look at here is the values of R-Sq and R-Sq(adj).

Notice that the R 2 has gone down but the Adjusted-R 2 has actually gone up from when we included all three variables. That is, we have a better model with only two variables than we did with three. That means that the model is easier to work with since there's not as much information to keep track of or substitute into the equation to make a prediction.

Round 3: Eliminating Another Variable

We said that the p-value for the age was slightly above 0.05, so we could say that age doesn't contribute greatly to the model. Let's throw it out and see how things are affected. At this point, we'll be back to the simple linear regression that we did earlier since we only have one predictor variable.

Here is the summary table again

Wow! Notice the big drops in both the R 2 and Adjusted-R 2 . For that reason, we're going to stick with the two variable model and use a competitor's age and the weight they can snatch to predict how much they can lift in the clean and jerk.

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• Null and Alternative Hypotheses | Definitions & Examples

Null and Alternative Hypotheses | Definitions & Examples

Published on 5 October 2022 by Shaun Turney . Revised on 6 December 2022.

The null and alternative hypotheses are two competing claims that researchers weigh evidence for and against using a statistical test :

• Null hypothesis (H 0 ): There’s no effect in the population .
• Alternative hypothesis (H A ): There’s an effect in the population.

The effect is usually the effect of the independent variable on the dependent variable .

Table of contents

Answering your research question with hypotheses, what is a null hypothesis, what is an alternative hypothesis, differences between null and alternative hypotheses, how to write null and alternative hypotheses, frequently asked questions about null and alternative hypotheses.

The null and alternative hypotheses offer competing answers to your research question . When the research question asks “Does the independent variable affect the dependent variable?”, the null hypothesis (H 0 ) answers “No, there’s no effect in the population.” On the other hand, the alternative hypothesis (H A ) answers “Yes, there is an effect in the population.”

The null and alternative are always claims about the population. That’s because the goal of hypothesis testing is to make inferences about a population based on a sample . Often, we infer whether there’s an effect in the population by looking at differences between groups or relationships between variables in the sample.

You can use a statistical test to decide whether the evidence favors the null or alternative hypothesis. Each type of statistical test comes with a specific way of phrasing the null and alternative hypothesis. However, the hypotheses can also be phrased in a general way that applies to any test.

The null hypothesis is the claim that there’s no effect in the population.

If the sample provides enough evidence against the claim that there’s no effect in the population ( p ≤ α), then we can reject the null hypothesis . Otherwise, we fail to reject the null hypothesis.

Although “fail to reject” may sound awkward, it’s the only wording that statisticians accept. Be careful not to say you “prove” or “accept” the null hypothesis.

Null hypotheses often include phrases such as “no effect”, “no difference”, or “no relationship”. When written in mathematical terms, they always include an equality (usually =, but sometimes ≥ or ≤).

Examples of null hypotheses

The table below gives examples of research questions and null hypotheses. There’s always more than one way to answer a research question, but these null hypotheses can help you get started.

*Note that some researchers prefer to always write the null hypothesis in terms of “no effect” and “=”. It would be fine to say that daily meditation has no effect on the incidence of depression and p 1 = p 2 .

The alternative hypothesis (H A ) is the other answer to your research question . It claims that there’s an effect in the population.

Often, your alternative hypothesis is the same as your research hypothesis. In other words, it’s the claim that you expect or hope will be true.

The alternative hypothesis is the complement to the null hypothesis. Null and alternative hypotheses are exhaustive, meaning that together they cover every possible outcome. They are also mutually exclusive, meaning that only one can be true at a time.

Alternative hypotheses often include phrases such as “an effect”, “a difference”, or “a relationship”. When alternative hypotheses are written in mathematical terms, they always include an inequality (usually ≠, but sometimes > or <). As with null hypotheses, there are many acceptable ways to phrase an alternative hypothesis.

Examples of alternative hypotheses

The table below gives examples of research questions and alternative hypotheses to help you get started with formulating your own.

Null and alternative hypotheses are similar in some ways:

• They’re both answers to the research question
• They both make claims about the population
• They’re both evaluated by statistical tests.

However, there are important differences between the two types of hypotheses, summarized in the following table.

To help you write your hypotheses, you can use the template sentences below. If you know which statistical test you’re going to use, you can use the test-specific template sentences. Otherwise, you can use the general template sentences.

The only thing you need to know to use these general template sentences are your dependent and independent variables. To write your research question, null hypothesis, and alternative hypothesis, fill in the following sentences with your variables:

Does independent variable affect dependent variable ?

• Null hypothesis (H 0 ): Independent variable does not affect dependent variable .
• Alternative hypothesis (H A ): Independent variable affects dependent variable .

Test-specific

Once you know the statistical test you’ll be using, you can write your hypotheses in a more precise and mathematical way specific to the test you chose. The table below provides template sentences for common statistical tests.

Note: The template sentences above assume that you’re performing one-tailed tests . One-tailed tests are appropriate for most studies.

The null hypothesis is often abbreviated as H 0 . When the null hypothesis is written using mathematical symbols, it always includes an equality symbol (usually =, but sometimes ≥ or ≤).

The alternative hypothesis is often abbreviated as H a or H 1 . When the alternative hypothesis is written using mathematical symbols, it always includes an inequality symbol (usually ≠, but sometimes < or >).

A research hypothesis is your proposed answer to your research question. The research hypothesis usually includes an explanation (‘ x affects y because …’).

A statistical hypothesis, on the other hand, is a mathematical statement about a population parameter. Statistical hypotheses always come in pairs: the null and alternative hypotheses. In a well-designed study , the statistical hypotheses correspond logically to the research hypothesis.

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8.2 Null and Alternative Hypotheses

Learning objectives.

• Describe hypothesis testing in general and in practice.

A hypothesis test begins by considering two hypotheses .  They are called the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis .  These hypotheses contain opposing viewpoints and only one of these hypotheses is true.  The hypothesis test determines which hypothesis is most likely true.

• The null hypothesis is a claim that a population parameter equals some value.  For example, [latex]H_0: \mu=5[/latex].
• The alternative hypothesis is a claim that a population parameter is greater than, less than, or not equal to some value.  For example, [latex]H_a: \mu>5[/latex], [latex]H_a: \mu<5[/latex], or [latex]H_a: \mu \neq 5[/latex].  The form of the alternative hypothesis depends on the wording of the hypothesis test.
• An alternative notation for [latex]H_a[/latex] is [latex]H_1[/latex].

Because the null and alternative hypotheses are contradictory, we must examine evidence to decide if we have enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis or not reject the null hypothesis.  The evidence is in the form of sample data.  After we have determined which hypothesis the sample data supports, we make a decision.  There are two options for a decision . They are “ reject [latex]H_0[/latex] ” if the sample information favors the alternative hypothesis or “ do not reject [latex]H_0[/latex] ” if the sample information is insufficient to reject the null hypothesis.

Watch this video: Simple hypothesis testing | Probability and Statistics | Khan Academy by Khan Academy [6:24]

A candidate in a local election claims that 30% of registered voters voted in a recent election.  Information provided by the returning office suggests that the percentage is higher than the 30% claimed.

The parameter under study is the proportion of registered voters, so we use [latex]p[/latex] in the statements of the hypotheses.  The hypotheses are

[latex]\begin{eqnarray*} \\ H_0: & & p=30\% \\ \\ H_a: & & p \gt 30\% \\ \\ \end{eqnarray*}[/latex]

• The null hypothesis [latex]H_0[/latex] is the claim that the proportion of registered voters that voted equals 30%.
• The alternative hypothesis [latex]H_a[/latex] is the claim that the proportion of registered voters that voted is greater than (i.e. higher) than 30%.

A medical researcher believes that a new medicine reduces cholesterol by 25%.  A medical trial suggests that the percent reduction is different than claimed.  State the null and alternative hypotheses.

[latex]\begin{eqnarray*} H_0: & & p=25\% \\ \\ H_a: & & p \neq 25\% \end{eqnarray*}[/latex]

We want to test whether the mean GPA of students in American colleges is different from 2.0 (out of 4.0).  State the null and alternative hypotheses.

[latex]\begin{eqnarray*} H_0: & & \mu=2  \mbox{ points} \\ \\ H_a: & & \mu \neq 2 \mbox{ points}  \end{eqnarray*}[/latex]

We want to test whether or not the mean height of eighth graders is 66 inches.  State the null and alternative hypotheses.

[latex]\begin{eqnarray*}  H_0: & & \mu=66 \mbox{ inches} \\ \\ H_a: & & \mu \neq 66 \mbox{ inches}  \end{eqnarray*}[/latex]

We want to test if college students take less than five years to graduate from college, on the average.  The null and alternative hypotheses are:

[latex]\begin{eqnarray*} H_0: & & \mu=5 \mbox{ years} \\ \\ H_a: & & \mu \lt 5 \mbox{ years}   \end{eqnarray*}[/latex]

We want to test if it takes fewer than 45 minutes to teach a lesson plan.  State the null and alternative hypotheses.

[latex]\begin{eqnarray*}  H_0: & & \mu=45 \mbox{ minutes} \\ \\ H_a: & & \mu \lt 45 \mbox{ minutes}  \end{eqnarray*}[/latex]

In an issue of U.S. News and World Report , an article on school standards stated that about half of all students in France, Germany, and Israel take advanced placement exams and a third pass.  The same article stated that 6.6% of U.S. students take advanced placement exams and 4.4% pass.  Test if the percentage of U.S. students who take advanced placement exams is more than 6.6%.  State the null and alternative hypotheses.

[latex]\begin{eqnarray*}  H_0: & & p=6.6\% \\ \\ H_a: & & p \gt 6.6\%  \end{eqnarray*}[/latex]

On a state driver’s test, about 40% pass the test on the first try.  We want to test if more than 40% pass on the first try.   State the null and alternative hypotheses.

[latex]\begin{eqnarray*}  H_0: & & p=40\% \\ \\ H_a: & & p \gt 40\%  \end{eqnarray*}[/latex]

Concept Review

In a  hypothesis test , sample data is evaluated in order to arrive at a decision about some type of claim.  If certain conditions about the sample are satisfied, then the claim can be evaluated for a population.  In a hypothesis test, we evaluate the null hypothesis , typically denoted with [latex]H_0[/latex]. The null hypothesis is not rejected unless the hypothesis test shows otherwise.  The null hypothesis always contain an equal sign ([latex]=[/latex]).  Always write the alternative hypothesis , typically denoted with [latex]H_a[/latex] or [latex]H_1[/latex], using less than, greater than, or not equals symbols ([latex]\lt[/latex], [latex]\gt[/latex], [latex]\neq[/latex]).  If we reject the null hypothesis, then we can assume there is enough evidence to support the alternative hypothesis.  But we can never state that a claim is proven true or false.  All we can conclude from the hypothesis test is which of the hypothesis is most likely true.  Because the underlying facts about hypothesis testing is based on probability laws, we can talk only in terms of non-absolute certainties.

Attribution

“ 9.1   Null and Alternative Hypotheses “ in Introductory Statistics by OpenStax  is licensed under a  Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Introduction to Statistics Copyright © 2022 by Valerie Watts is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License , except where otherwise noted.

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12.2.1: Hypothesis Test for Linear Regression

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• Rachel Webb
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To test to see if the slope is significant we will be doing a two-tailed test with hypotheses. The population least squares regression line would be \(y = \beta_{0} + \beta_{1} + \varepsilon\) where \(\beta_{0}\) (pronounced “beta-naught”) is the population \(y\)-intercept, \(\beta_{1}\) (pronounced “beta-one”) is the population slope and \(\varepsilon\) is called the error term.

If the slope were horizontal (equal to zero), the regression line would give the same \(y\)-value for every input of \(x\) and would be of no use. If there is a statistically significant linear relationship then the slope needs to be different from zero. We will only do the two-tailed test, but the same rules for hypothesis testing apply for a one-tailed test.

We will only be using the two-tailed test for a population slope.

The hypotheses are:

\(H_{0}: \beta_{1} = 0\) \(H_{1}: \beta_{1} \neq 0\)

The null hypothesis of a two-tailed test states that there is not a linear relationship between \(x\) and \(y\). The alternative hypothesis of a two-tailed test states that there is a significant linear relationship between \(x\) and \(y\).

Either a t-test or an F-test may be used to see if the slope is significantly different from zero. The population of the variable \(y\) must be normally distributed.

F-Test for Regression

An F-test can be used instead of a t-test. Both tests will yield the same results, so it is a matter of preference and what technology is available. Figure 12-12 is a template for a regression ANOVA table,

where \(n\) is the number of pairs in the sample and \(p\) is the number of predictor (independent) variables; for now this is just \(p = 1\). Use the F-distribution with degrees of freedom for regression = \(df_{R} = p\), and degrees of freedom for error = \(df_{E} = n - p - 1\). This F-test is always a right-tailed test since ANOVA is testing the variation in the regression model is larger than the variation in the error.

Use an F-test to see if there is a significant relationship between hours studied and grade on the exam. Use \(\alpha\) = 0.05.

T-Test for Regression

If the regression equation has a slope of zero, then every \(x\) value will give the same \(y\) value and the regression equation would be useless for prediction. We should perform a t-test to see if the slope is significantly different from zero before using the regression equation for prediction. The numeric value of t will be the same as the t-test for a correlation. The two test statistic formulas are algebraically equal; however, the formulas are different and we use a different parameter in the hypotheses.

The formula for the t-test statistic is \(t = \frac{b_{1}}{\sqrt{ \left(\frac{MSE}{SS_{xx}}\right) }}\)

Use the t-distribution with degrees of freedom equal to \(n - p - 1\).

The t-test for slope has the same hypotheses as the F-test:

Use a t-test to see if there is a significant relationship between hours studied and grade on the exam, use \(\alpha\) = 0.05.

CS250: Python for Data Science

Hypothesis Testing

In addition to calculating confidence intervals, hypothesis testing is another way to make statistical inferences. This process involves considering two opposing hypotheses regarding a given data set (referred to as the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis). Hypothesis testing determines whether the null hypothesis can be accepted or rejected.

Null and Alternative Hypotheses

The actual test begins by considering two hypotheses . They are called the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis . These hypotheses contain opposing viewpoints. H 0 , the - null hypothesis : a statement of no difference between sample means or proportions or no difference between a sample mean or proportion and a population mean or proportion. In other words, the difference equals 0. H a - , the alternative hypothesis : a claim about the population that is contradictory to H 0 and what we conclude when we reject H 0 . Since the null and alternative hypotheses are contradictory, you must examine evidence to decide if you have enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis or not. The evidence is in the form of sample data. After you have determined which hypothesis the sample supports, you make a decision . There are two options for a decision. They are reject H 0 if the sample information favors the alternative hypothesis or do not reject H 0 or decline to reject H 0 if the sample information is insufficient to reject the null hypothesis. Mathematical Symbols Used in H 0 and H a :

Example 9.1

Example 9.2.

• H 0 : μ __ 66
• H a : μ __ 66

Example 9.3

• H 0 : μ __ 45
• H a : μ __ 45

Example 9.4

• H 0 : p __ 0.40
• H a : p __ 0.40

Collaborative Exercise

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9.1: Null and Alternative Hypotheses

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The actual test begins by considering two hypotheses . They are called the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis . These hypotheses contain opposing viewpoints.

\(H_0\): The null hypothesis: It is a statement of no difference between the variables—they are not related. This can often be considered the status quo and as a result if you cannot accept the null it requires some action.

\(H_a\): The alternative hypothesis: It is a claim about the population that is contradictory to \(H_0\) and what we conclude when we reject \(H_0\). This is usually what the researcher is trying to prove.

Since the null and alternative hypotheses are contradictory, you must examine evidence to decide if you have enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis or not. The evidence is in the form of sample data.

After you have determined which hypothesis the sample supports, you make a decision. There are two options for a decision. They are "reject \(H_0\)" if the sample information favors the alternative hypothesis or "do not reject \(H_0\)" or "decline to reject \(H_0\)" if the sample information is insufficient to reject the null hypothesis.

\(H_{0}\) always has a symbol with an equal in it. \(H_{a}\) never has a symbol with an equal in it. The choice of symbol depends on the wording of the hypothesis test. However, be aware that many researchers (including one of the co-authors in research work) use = in the null hypothesis, even with > or < as the symbol in the alternative hypothesis. This practice is acceptable because we only make the decision to reject or not reject the null hypothesis.

Example \(\PageIndex{1}\)

• \(H_{0}\): No more than 30% of the registered voters in Santa Clara County voted in the primary election. \(p \leq 30\)
• \(H_{a}\): More than 30% of the registered voters in Santa Clara County voted in the primary election. \(p > 30\)

Exercise \(\PageIndex{1}\)

A medical trial is conducted to test whether or not a new medicine reduces cholesterol by 25%. State the null and alternative hypotheses.

• \(H_{0}\): The drug reduces cholesterol by 25%. \(p = 0.25\)
• \(H_{a}\): The drug does not reduce cholesterol by 25%. \(p \neq 0.25\)

Example \(\PageIndex{2}\)

We want to test whether the mean GPA of students in American colleges is different from 2.0 (out of 4.0). The null and alternative hypotheses are:

• \(H_{0}: \mu = 2.0\)
• \(H_{a}: \mu \neq 2.0\)

Exercise \(\PageIndex{2}\)

We want to test whether the mean height of eighth graders is 66 inches. State the null and alternative hypotheses. Fill in the correct symbol \((=, \neq, \geq, <, \leq, >)\) for the null and alternative hypotheses.

• \(H_{0}: \mu \_ 66\)
• \(H_{a}: \mu \_ 66\)
• \(H_{0}: \mu = 66\)
• \(H_{a}: \mu \neq 66\)

Example \(\PageIndex{3}\)

We want to test if college students take less than five years to graduate from college, on the average. The null and alternative hypotheses are:

• \(H_{0}: \mu \geq 5\)
• \(H_{a}: \mu < 5\)

Exercise \(\PageIndex{3}\)

We want to test if it takes fewer than 45 minutes to teach a lesson plan. State the null and alternative hypotheses. Fill in the correct symbol ( =, ≠, ≥, <, ≤, >) for the null and alternative hypotheses.

• \(H_{0}: \mu \_ 45\)
• \(H_{a}: \mu \_ 45\)
• \(H_{0}: \mu \geq 45\)
• \(H_{a}: \mu < 45\)

Example \(\PageIndex{4}\)

In an issue of U. S. News and World Report , an article on school standards stated that about half of all students in France, Germany, and Israel take advanced placement exams and a third pass. The same article stated that 6.6% of U.S. students take advanced placement exams and 4.4% pass. Test if the percentage of U.S. students who take advanced placement exams is more than 6.6%. State the null and alternative hypotheses.

• \(H_{0}: p \leq 0.066\)
• \(H_{a}: p > 0.066\)

Exercise \(\PageIndex{4}\)

On a state driver’s test, about 40% pass the test on the first try. We want to test if more than 40% pass on the first try. Fill in the correct symbol (\(=, \neq, \geq, <, \leq, >\)) for the null and alternative hypotheses.

• \(H_{0}: p \_ 0.40\)
• \(H_{a}: p \_ 0.40\)
• \(H_{0}: p = 0.40\)
• \(H_{a}: p > 0.40\)

COLLABORATIVE EXERCISE

Bring to class a newspaper, some news magazines, and some Internet articles . In groups, find articles from which your group can write null and alternative hypotheses. Discuss your hypotheses with the rest of the class.

In a hypothesis test , sample data is evaluated in order to arrive at a decision about some type of claim. If certain conditions about the sample are satisfied, then the claim can be evaluated for a population. In a hypothesis test, we:

• Evaluate the null hypothesis , typically denoted with \(H_{0}\). The null is not rejected unless the hypothesis test shows otherwise. The null statement must always contain some form of equality \((=, \leq \text{or} \geq)\)
• Always write the alternative hypothesis , typically denoted with \(H_{a}\) or \(H_{1}\), using less than, greater than, or not equals symbols, i.e., \((\neq, >, \text{or} <)\).
• If we reject the null hypothesis, then we can assume there is enough evidence to support the alternative hypothesis.
• Never state that a claim is proven true or false. Keep in mind the underlying fact that hypothesis testing is based on probability laws; therefore, we can talk only in terms of non-absolute certainties.

Formula Review

\(H_{0}\) and \(H_{a}\) are contradictory.

• If \(\alpha \leq p\)-value, then do not reject \(H_{0}\).
• If\(\alpha > p\)-value, then reject \(H_{0}\).

\(\alpha\) is preconceived. Its value is set before the hypothesis test starts. The \(p\)-value is calculated from the data.References

Data from the National Institute of Mental Health. Available online at http://www.nimh.nih.gov/publicat/depression.cfm .